Prof G Markets – Episode Summary
Episode Title: Google Dodges a Breakup, China’s Growing Trade With Africa & Anthropic’s $183B Valuation
Date: September 4, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson, Scott Galloway
Notable Guest: Jonathan Kanter, former Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust, US DOJ

Overview

This episode centers on three major market-moving stories:

1. The U.S. antitrust ruling that lets Google avoid a corporate breakup
2. China’s rapidly expanding trade with Africa and shifting global alliances
3. AI startup Anthropic’s staggering $183 billion valuation after its latest funding round

The conversation blends sharp legal insight, blunt economic analysis, and a dose of Prof G’s signature irreverence. Listeners get context on regulatory decisions, geopolitics, and capital flows shaping today’s financial markets.

1. Google Dodges Antitrust Breakup

Market Update & Background

[02:16] Ed Elson:

• S&P and NASDAQ rallied post-Google antitrust ruling; Google stock rose 9% on news it dodged a forced breakup.
• Judge Mehta ruled Google must end certain exclusive deals but can still pay partners (like Apple) for default search placement.
• The ruling largely rejected the DOJ’s call for stricter remedies, such as splitting up Chrome or banning payments to Apple.

“Google stocks soared 9% yesterday on news that the company has dodged the breakup bullet.” – Ed Elson [02:16]

Jonathan Kanter Breaks Down the Ruling

[04:48] – [20:53] Key Segment

• Background: Kanter clarifies two separate antitrust cases against Google: one about search (subject of this ruling), and one about ad tech (remedies still pending).
• Allegations: Google used massive payments (especially to Apple, Samsung, device manufacturers) to lock in default placement and monopolize search.
• Trial: DOJ and state AGs spent years litigating—Kanter credits the Trump administration for following through on remedies phase.

“For roughly 10 years, [Google] paid a ton of money each year to lock out competitors … and secured this massive moat around its business.” – Jonathan Kanter [05:38]

• Ruling Summary:
  • Judge Mehta found Google illegally monopolized the market for a decade, but issued only limited remedies:
    • Google cannot make exclusive default deals but may still pay for default status generally.
    • Must share some data with search competitors.
    • Restrictions extend to Gemini (AI chatbot).
  • The ruling explicitly rejected DOJ suggestions to break up Google or end its Apple payment altogether.

“The court ... decided to take a much more nuanced and cautious and, frankly, weak approach to imposing remedies on Google.” – Jonathan Kanter [09:21]

• Critique:
  • Kanter calls the court’s reasoning “confusing,” noting companies with monopoly power shouldn't get “the benefit of the doubt.”
  • Judge justified leniency by citing growing AI competition (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.), theorizing “market forces” might now erode Google’s power.
  • The court worried banning payments could stifle Apple’s innovation—but Kanter retorts Apple spends more on stock buybacks than R&D.

“If the consequences of breaking the law are less than the consequences of violating the law, then they're going to make the decision to violate ... and view it as a cost of doing business.” – Jonathan Kanter [15:53]

Implications & Personal Take

• Kanter expresses disappointment but notes the broader impact:
  • Sets precedent that monopolists may avoid serious consequences—risk of encouraging anticompetitive conduct.
  • Private lawsuits and further DOJ action (especially on ad tech) are ongoing; European cases also in play.
  • The fight for “guardrails” in big tech is far from over.

“I'm disappointed ... But there are going to be ups and downs. But I think the cause is just too important.” – Jonathan Kanter [18:36]

• Ed’s Analysis [20:59]:
  • Despite legal setbacks, this is a huge win for Google investors:
    • Stock up 45% since his “Time to Buy Google” call.
    • “It's a huge win for Google and ... for the investor as well.”

2. China’s Growing Trade With Africa & Global Realignment

[25:38] – [34:15] Main Discussion

China-Africa Trade Surges

[25:38] Ed Elson:

• Chinese exports to Africa up 25% YoY, projected to exceed $200B for the first time.
• Now outselling to Africa more than the U.S.
• While Washington reimposes tariffs on 30 African countries, China cuts tariffs for 19 and signs $30B worth of African construction contracts.
• Global trade alliances are shifting away from the U.S. (EU with Mercosur, India with Russia, Qatar, etc.)

“Deals are happening, as we've said, they're just not happening with us ... we are driving the world into each other's arms.” – Ed Elson [26:45]

Scott Galloway’s Take

• Chinese Military Parade & Geopolitics:
  • China is flexing its influence (“show of strength”) with events like the military parade featuring Putin.
  • Predicts deeper strategic ties: “China will start to open military bases in Africa.”
• U.S. Policy Missteps:
  • “Africa will probably see ... at some point it will [boom]. It’s very mineral rich ... leapfrog other developing economies.”
  • U.S. tariffs and disengagement are ceding ground to China.

“Ever since this tariff nonsense ... it has worked. Unfortunately, the deals are happening without the US. You summarized it perfectly.” – Scott Galloway [29:23]

Trump’s Social Media Commentary

• [30:12] Ed reads Trump’s post:
  • Opens with WWII history, veers into sarcasm directed at Xi, Putin, Kim Jong Un.
• Scott’s Reaction:
  • Sees Trump’s statement as a move “from almost presidential to internet troll,” and a sign of poor U.S. leadership.
• Policy Prescription:
  • U.S. should focus on concrete actions (“quietly … delivering and training F15 pilots”) to support Ukraine and undermine Russian energy, rather than “barking and whining.”
  • Defines “kakistocracy” as rule by the incompetent.

3. Anthropic's $183 Billion Valuation: The Private Capital Boom

[34:21] Ed Elson:

• Anthropic raises $13B at a $183B valuation—up from $61.5B earlier this year.
• Fourth most valuable private company globally; would be a top-100 public company.
• The round drew $25B in interest—indicative of private market dominance over public IPOs. Largest U.S. IPO this year (CoreWeave) raised just $1.5B.

“The best companies in the world are not going public because they don't need to ... The private markets are so flush with cash.” – Ed Elson [35:30]

• Notable investors: Iconiq, Lightspeed, Fidelity, Blackstone, Qatar Investment Authority, and more.
• Gulf State Capital Shift:
  • Anthropic, once opposed to Gulf investment (“dangerous for AI companies to ‘get in bed’ with the Middle East”), now counts Qatar as a top backer.
  • Ed: “No matter what these companies say … the fact remains money always wins.”

Themes

• Private capital far outpaces public markets for scale and opportunity.
• AI sector valuations continue to explode—but retail investors remain largely excluded.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:38 | Jonathan Kanter | “For roughly 10 years, [Google] paid a ton of money each year to lock out competitors ... and secured this massive moat around its business.” | | 09:21 | Jonathan Kanter | “The court ... decided to take a much more nuanced and cautious and, frankly, weak approach to imposing remedies on Google.” | | 15:53 | Jonathan Kanter | “If the consequences of breaking the law are less than the consequences of violating the law ... they’re going to view it as a cost of doing business.” | | 18:36 | Jonathan Kanter | “I’m disappointed ... But there are going to be ups and downs. But I think the cause is just too important.” | | 26:45 | Ed Elson | “Deals are happening, as we’ve said, they’re just not happening with us ... we are driving the world into each other’s arms.” | | 29:23 | Scott Galloway | “Ever since this tariff nonsense ... it has worked. Unfortunately, the deals are happening without the US. You summarized it perfectly.” | | 35:30 | Ed Elson | “The best companies in the world are not going public because they don't need to ... The private markets are so flush with cash.” |

Conclusion

This episode highlighted the U.S. government’s difficulty in effectively curbing big tech monopolies, the global reordering of trade alliances in a multipolar world, and the astonishing expansion of private capital—especially in AI. Jonathan Kanter provided sobering legal perspective, while Scott Galloway delivered both wit and strategic urgency. The message: Market forces are changing fast, the rules (and enforcers) are struggling to keep up, and investors must pay attention—because money, regulation, and global alliances are rewriting the business playbook.

Next Episode Teaser: Conversation with Ray Dalio.