Prof G Markets: “Google vs. Nvidia: Is the AI Chip King Finally Under Threat?”

Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson
Guests: Patrick Moorhead (CEO, Moor Insights & Strategy), Santiago Roel Santos (Founder/CEO, Inversion)
Podcast Network: Vox Media

Overview

This episode dives deep into two hot topics shaping capital markets:

1. The breaking news that Meta may spend billions on Google’s AI chips (TPUs), raising the question of whether Google is poised to become Nvidia’s biggest competitor.
2. The continuing crash in Bitcoin and the wider crypto markets, with insights from an institutional investor perspective.

Through conversations with guest experts, the show unpacks technical, financial, and strategic layers behind these headlines, explaining both immediate and long-term implications for investors and industry leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Market News Rundown [02:09]

• Optimism for a December rate cut fuels a broad market rally.
• Google and Meta’s stock pop (up ~4% each) on news of Meta’s interest in Google’s AI chips.
• Nvidia stock falls sharply (down ~7%), triggering debate over AI chip market dynamics.
• Bitcoin continues severe declines; the crash and its drivers are analyzed in the second half.

1. Google’s AI Chip Gambit vs. Nvidia: Market Dynamics

— What Are TPUs and Why Are They Disruptive?

[04:12]

• Patrick Moorhead explains:

  • TPUs = “Tensor Processing Units,” application-specific chips built by Google for AI workloads.
  • “An ASIC is… a little bit more focused on the solution it’s trying to fix. It’s typically lower power, all things considered, but… a little less flexible. So GPUs are more flexible. TPUs for a specific workload are typically more efficient.” — Patrick Moorhead [04:12]

• Efficiency vs. Flexibility:

  • TPUs use less power, crucial as AI’s energy appetite balloons.
  • GPUs remain the gold standard for adaptability to many types of AI workloads.

— Why Is Meta Buying Google’s TPUs?

[05:13]

• Meta has in-house chips (MTIA) but sees strategic value in diversifying with Google’s new TPU generation.
• “It appears as if they’ve looked at their own internal capabilities and… said, ‘Hey, I like what I’m seeing with this generation of Google TPUs.’ But I do not for a second believe that they won’t be using a ton of GPUs as well.” — Patrick Moorhead [05:13]

— Is Google Really Threatening Nvidia?

[06:56]

• Nvidia’s public response stressed versatility and being “a generation ahead.”

• “What they’re talking about with fungibility is… flexibility… you can get three generations out of a certain Nvidia GPU… you might only get one [out] of an ASIC.” — Patrick Moorhead [06:56]

• Moorhead agrees Nvidia leads on raw performance and flexibility.

• Market Overreaction?

  • “This market reaction you’re seeing is from, I think, people not doing their homework. This is not new… in two or three years [Nvidia will have] 70% market share. But the market is gigantic. Everybody can grow and everybody can do very well.” — Patrick Moorhead [08:02]

— AI Chip “Bake Off”: No Single Winner

[09:57]

• All tech giants (Google, Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Meta) now compete — or hedge — for AI compute supremacy.
• "Nobody [is] comfortable with any supplier that has 90% market share. The industry will react. That’s exactly what you’re seeing.” — Patrick Moorhead [08:02]

— The Gemini 3 Factor

[11:01]

• Gemini 3, Google’s new large language model, receives “best ever” buzz, even shaking OpenAI.
  • “Mark Benioff… pinned his tweet that Gemini 3 was the greatest thing he’s ever used… Reportedly, Sam Altman told the OpenAI staff to brace for, quote, rough vibes and temporary economic headwinds.” — Ed Elson [11:01]
• Moorhead notes big jump in capability, especially for code-generation and visual features, but business adoption lags Microsoft:
  • “[Google’s] first challenge is… higher EPS to Google Corp for its own products, and… monetize this via API and cloud… But… everybody’s using Microsoft AI… That will be tough to break for Google. But, man, what a strong start.” — Patrick Moorhead [11:46]

— So… Who’s Winning the AI Race?

[13:43]

• “Who’s winning [financially] in 2025 is Microsoft. That’s who’s winning. If I look at the revenue… Microsoft is the trusted provider for enterprises. Google’s doing great… but [is] still the number three enterprise cloud out there.” — Patrick Moorhead [13:56]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “TPUs for a specific workload are typically more efficient.” — Patrick Moorhead [04:12]
• “This market reaction… is from people not doing their homework.” — Patrick Moorhead [08:02]
• “Everybody’s keeping themselves honest… Let’s keep everybody honest, let’s cut deals with everybody and then let’s see what actually comes out of this.” — Patrick Moorhead [08:02]
• “Who’s winning [in AI] in 2025 is Microsoft… Microsoft is the trusted provider for enterprises.” — Patrick Moorhead [13:56]
• “This wheel of innovation between Anthropic, Google, OpenAI… everybody has the best new model within two weeks of each other.” — Patrick Moorhead [11:46]

Timestamps:

• [02:09] — Market rundown, AI chip news context
• [04:12] — TPUs vs. GPUs explained
• [05:13] — Why Meta is buying TPUs
• [06:56] — Nvidia’s response, debate over who’s ahead
• [11:01] — Gemini 3's impact, OpenAI’s reaction
• [13:43] — “Who’s winning?” direct question/answer

2. Crypto Crash: Bitcoin, Altcoins, and What’s Next

What’s Behind the Bitcoin Dip?

[18:34]

• Bitcoin down 21% in a month to ~$87,000, erasing yearly gains.
• Other major cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks (like Coinbase, MicroStrategy) are also down significantly.

— Big Factors

• “You’re basically seeing ETF dry… that liquidity dry up. The marginal buyer is no longer there.” — Santiago Roel Santos [19:43]
• Large holders (“whales”) took profits above the $100k psychological level, creating further selling pressure [20:09].

— HODLing vs. Selling: Is BTC’s Narrative Shifting?

• While “never sell” is the culture, institutions and whales do lock in gains at key levels, potentially eroding the ultimate “digital gold” ethos.

— Is Bitcoin Fulfilling Its “Digital Gold” Promise?

[21:48]

• Bitcoin remains volatile and is NOT behaving like gold — which is up, while BTC is down.
• “If you’re a portfolio manager, it’s hard to go to your client and say… ‘We put a position on bitcoin and it’s down 25%.’… Bitcoin’s always pretended to be an uncorrelated asset class... but this year, you’re down and the market’s up.” — Santiago Roel Santos [22:07]

— Crypto Market: Beyond Bitcoin

[24:10]

• Bitcoin = “ossified” as digital gold; most altcoins and meme coins remain pure speculative bets.
• “There’s a big disconnect between the technology and some of these crypto assets and meme coins that are just purely speculative…” — Santiago Roel Santos [24:10]
• Stablecoins stand out as a practical use case (payments by Stripe, Robinhood, SpaceX).

— MicroStrategy and Crypto Treasury Companies

[25:35]

• MicroStrategy negotiated favorable terms, isn’t a forced seller in market turbulence.
• Other “treasury” vehicles may face more pressure due to less favorable lending terms.

— Crypto Valuation: Bubble or Opportunity?

[27:29]

• Ethereum, Solana, etc. are trading at sky-high multiples relative to revenue (“the hottest AI company trades at 25x revenue, but these are at 100x+.”)
• “At some point you have to show fundamentals… if we can’t really prove to the market that the use case is there and the value captures there, it’s going to be pretty hard to justify the valuation for Ethereum at $350 billion.” — Santiago Roel Santos [27:52]

— 2026 Outlook

[27:29]

• Crypto’s future is “tied to macro and liquidity… It’s a sobering moment for the crypto industry to say, okay, we’ve created this 24/7, 365 internet capital markets. Can we graduate beyond being a pure speculative asset class and deliver on the fundamentals?” — Santiago Roel Santos [27:52]

Notable Quotes

• “Bitcoin’s always pretended to be an uncorrelated asset class… but this year, you’re down and the market’s up.” — Santiago Roel Santos [22:07]
• “There’s a big disconnect between the promise of the technology and the valuation for a lot of these coins...” — Santiago Roel Santos [29:00]

Timestamps:

• [18:34] — Bitcoin/crypto market setup
• [19:43] — What’s behind the selloff?
• [22:07] — Bitcoin’s failures as “digital gold”
• [24:10] — Altcoins, meme coins, and stablecoins
• [25:35] — Treasury companies like MicroStrategy
• [27:29] — Valuation, use cases, and 2026 outlook

Summary Table

| Segment | Guest | Timestamp | Key Points | |-------------------------|------------------------------|-------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | AI Chip Battle | Patrick Moorhead (Moor Insights) | 03:45–14:48 | Google’s TPUs efficient but less flexible than Nvidia’s GPUs. Market likely overreacting. Microsoft remains AI revenue leader. | | Bitcoin & Crypto Crash | Santiago Roel Santos (Inversion) | 18:34–29:20 | ETF outflows and profit-taking drive Bitcoin’s drop; BTC remains volatile, institutional interest remains but narrative tested. |

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• AI Hardware: The “AI chip race” is now a dynamic bake-off rather than a winner-take-all. While Google’s AI chip move dents Nvidia’s aura, Nvidia’s ecosystem, flexibility, and performance leadership will keep it central for years, even as others gain share.
• AI Software: Microsoft remains the king of monetization and enterprise trust as 2025 closes, despite Google’s attention-grabbing Gemini 3 launch.
• Crypto: Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” is under pressure as volatility and profit-taking dominate. Most altcoins remain speculative, but stablecoins hint at real-world use cases. Crypto’s tech must prove fundamental value to justify sky-high valuations moving forward.

Memorable Closing

• Ed Elson closes with a Thanksgiving reflection and a quote from Seneca:
  • “There is no enjoying the possession of anything valuable unless we have someone to share it with.” — [32:43]

For investors and observers, the message is clear:
Vast opportunity and volatility are here to stay—in both AI and crypto, adaptability and realism are key.