C (3:33)

Thank you for having me.

B (3:34)

So let's just walk through the ASML earnings here. What were your main takeaways? What did we see this quarter?

C (3:41)

Yeah, I'd say there's two fairly key high level takeaways from the results. One, around the bookings themselves that they took in the quarter, and then secondly, sort of what that is meaning what the bookings and indeed the interactions they're having with the customers is meaning for the outlook into 2026. So firstly on the bookings, 5.4 billion euros of bookings in the quarter, that's a healthy number, not dramatic, but fairly healthy. And what you're seeing within that mix is that both memory customers, the likes of Samsung, sk, Hynix in Korea, Micron in the us, as well as the logic customers, tsmc, Samsung as well, are ordering. So there's a good breadth to the order intake from asml, particularly so on the memory side, which I think is both a cyclical statement as well as a structural one. And then in terms of what that means, looking into 2026, this is a company that's got very long lead times 12 months for some of the most advanced tools. And so that visibility is steadily improving into next year. And after a rather sort of tough few quarters, particularly with second quarter, where they had to walk away from the expectation of growing in 2026 because of the uncertainty out there in the broader market, they've now said some of that uncertainty has been answered during the last three months and so now they're willing to say it will at least be flat, if not grow in 2026. That's something that certainly the market took positively this morning here in Europe and why you've seen the shares trade.

B (5:19)

Well, tell us a little bit about what that uncertainty was and the sense in which it has been answered over the past few months.

C (5:27)

Yeah, so there was both, I think macro top down Uncertainty, tariffs, you're still very much on the radar for the entire chip industry. And back in July, particularly for asml, who were always the first to report that uncertainty was still quite apparent in terms of the broader environment. But also there were customer specific issues. And that really began around this time last year with both intel and Samsung on the foundry side where both have had fairly well reported challenges in terms of ramping new technology, getting new customers on board. And while not all of that has been answered in the last quarter, some of it has. And you've seen Samsung announce new deals, particularly for the Fab in Texas with Tesla, with Apple, you've seen investment coming into intel from a number of places. And so some of that uncertainty is ebbing away a little bit. Not everything's been solved, but definitely a little bit better than where we were three months ago.

B (6:39)

Yeah, it certainly seems that ASML strikes a very cautious tone, more so than I would say a lot of other companies. Perhaps that's the European in them versus the American. But you know, as you mentioned last time when we looked at the earnings, there was this concern over, over macro and so concern about tariffs. And one of the things that we were sort of struck by is, you know, the extent to which that dragged on ASML but didn't seem to drag on a lot of other AI stocks. I'm wondering if you noticed that as well, if that that caught your attention.

C (7:15)

Yeah, there's been a definite disconnect, I think, and there's a few reasons for it, I would say. I mean, you talked about ASML's perhaps cautious tone that isn't always the case, but certainly over the last year because of the challenges, both top down and bottoms up. So I was just talking about they've been in the unfortunate position of having to cut some of their longer term targets. And really it's the first time in the last 15 years since they started setting medium and long term targets coming out of the global financial crisis that they've had to do that. And so I think that has naturally caused them to be a bit more cautious in recent quarters. Yeah, the other thing, in terms of the disconnect between some of the excitement that you see elsewhere within the AI supply chain and what you see in equipment, I think is quite telling. It was something that we as a team within Citi have been talking about the last couple of months. It did feel like coming through the second quarter that you had all of the hyperscalers beating and raising in terms of capital spending wasn't yet filtering into the chip names. But then clearly over the last month or so, you've seen myriad deals announced, Nvidia, amd, et cetera. And so it sort of come down one layer. And yet still when you're getting down into the actual supply chain where these chips are going to be built, not yet seeing the orders, you know, so Jensen Huang, Sam Altman walking around talking about hundreds of billions of dollars worth of chips and yet there's ASML today reporting 5 billion euros worth of orders. As I said at the start, it's healthy, but it's not, it's not record levels by any means. So I, and they got a lot of questions on this, the management team, during the conference call this afternoon. And you know, visibility is improving. They're clearly having those conversations through the supply chain with their customers and the customers customers, but it's not yet materializing orders. Something that I do think has to come in the next few quarters. Otherwise, you know, the fantastic numbers in terms of chips that are being talked about, the number of data centers, the lead times in this industry mean that it's going to be harder and harder to achieve those on time if we don't start to see the orders flow through.

B (9:38)

The other concern that was mentioned on the call was China. The CEO mentioned that there was a, perhaps going to be a dip in Chinese demand and therefore Chinese revenue. Can you speak to what we learned about ASML and the relationship with China?

C (9:54)

Sure. China has been a strong revenue driver for them for the last few years. It's true for the entire semiconductor equipment space as China has been building out their capacity. And there has also been a regular refrain from the equipment industry, ASML included at least over the last year, that the Chinese revenue would start to decline in some cases quite meaningfully. And when we started 2025, ASML was saying they expected between 20 and 25% of revenue to come from China this year. As we came through the first couple of quarters, they were doing a bit better than that, 27% through the first half. And so they were saying, look, probably a bit above 25. And then in the quarter, they just reported this morning as 42% of their hardware sales in the quarter. So it really stepped up materially. And so, you know, I think it's probably going to be north of 30% by the time fourth quarter is said and done. So still a very strong year from China. And therefore they're again saying, look, we don't think that it is a sustainable level. Probably comes back into the low to mid 20% range over the long term. So they're sticking to that message even while in the near term they're continuing to ship more than they had anticipated. So the demand is there. It's certainly not slowing down.

B (11:16)

I'm so struck by the tone of asml. I compare it to the very hyped up AI stocks and Tesla. I mean, just look at the net bookings, doubling and seeing all of this growth in China. And yet the tone is, again, we're worried about this. It could come down. Don't get too excited. Which is very interesting, especially when you look at the stock, which is up, you know, 30% over the past couple of months.

C (11:41)

Yeah, indeed. It's had a dramatic turn. You know, I'd say in talking to investors in the July and August time frame after second quarter results, people would engage, but, you know, you were struggling to get commitment. You know, there was a sense that either numbers needed to come lower for those who were most bearish at the time for 2026, or even if they believed the numbers, they just, they wanted their handheld a little bit and they wanted to speak to management, wanted to understand what was going on. There was just a lack of conviction. And all of that changed very rapidly, even by semiconductor standards during the month of September. And I think it was just sort of the news flow was just building day after day after day in terms of these deals that were being talked about in the AI space. And also the memory market pricing in DRAM really had started to turn positively and the combination of those things finally gave the market that conviction. Okay, the industry data points are telling me 2026 shouldn't get any worse than is modeled. And so I'm going to, as a market, I'm going to feel more comfortable in buying this stock and indeed this group. And that's essentially what ASNL have confirmed this morning. 2026 has been reset to an achievable level and we can now look forward to growth in 2027 and beyond.

B (13:06)

All right, Andrew Gardner, head of European Technology Equity Research at Citi. We really appreciate your time. Thank you.

C (13:12)

Thank you, Ian.

B (13:16)

So, strong quarter for asml. And if you are a regular listener to the show, then perhaps you saw this coming, perhaps you even own the stock. Because, yes, we did predict this back in July when we last discussed asml. We said the stock was on sale. We said that ASML was a buy. So our conclusion here is that we might have some dislocation on our hands. And as a result, we think this is probably a buying opportunity. Our thesis is that ASML just got put up for sale as of market close on Wednesday, July 16. Yesterday it is 8% off on ASML and for no other reason other than the CEO is buying into the tariff drama while the rest of America isn't. And that to us spells buying opportunity. That was July 17th. The stock was trading at around $740 per share at the time. Today it is trading at over $1,000 per share, so our prediction was correct. Indeed, we did see Taco. The tariffs did not impact the earnings and the stock in the past three months has risen 35%, one of the best performing stocks in Q3 and it is also now the most valuable public company in Europe. $390 billion market cap. It is now ahead of LVMH, which is at $350 billion and also ahead of Novo Nordisk at $250 billion. So good call there. At this point we think the company is pretty much fairly valued. In other words, we don't see the kind of upside that we saw three months ago. But at the same time, this is still a very strong company, strong moats, very well positioned in AI and it has not been subject to the same hype that we have seen with many of these other AI companies. So not the same position where we were at three months ago. In some hold after the break, Netflix is officially getting into podcasting. If you're enjoying the show, give Property Markets a follow Support for the show comes from Mercury, the banking product that helps entrepreneurs do more with their money. For entrepreneurs, your banking transaction history is like a scrapbook of important moments in your startup's history. That deposit isn't just a deposit, it's the first batch of seed capital. That wire transfer is more than a wire transfer, it's payroll for your very first employees. Mercury is the banking product made by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs. It's meticulously designed to make managing your business money effortlessly. Simple with banking cards, spend, management, invoicing, and more all in one place. You may remember I even spoke to a few of my friends who are entrepreneurs about their experience. I haven't used the product myself, but from what I understand, if you're building a tech company, Mercury is the go to platform. My friends who are building tech companies absolutely love Mercury. Ready to see what powerful banking can do for your business? Visit mercury.com to apply in minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column NA and Evolve bank and Trust members. FDIC.

A (16:32)

Support for the show comes from public.com you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some high conviction picks, maybe even a few strategic option plays. The side the point is you've engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, it's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com profg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com propg paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosure available at public.com disclosures Support for the show comes from SoFi. Investing doesn't have to be complicated. At SoFi, everything you need is in one simple, easy to use app. Trade stocks and ETFs and even get access to IPOs before they hit the exchange with SoFi securities. Or take a more hands off approach with SoFi's award winning low cost robo advisor. Through SoFi Wealth Plus, SoFi goes beyond the basics. Along with traditional options, you have access to alternatives including real estate and private markets to build a broader portfolio. And here's the kicker. When you open and fund a new active investing account, you will get up to $1,000 in stock terms apply. That's real money working for you from day one. So whether you want to pick your own path or let the experts guide you, SoFi makes it easier to build your wealth in one place. Learn more and get started@sofi.com propginvest that's sofi.com profg invest. This is a paid advertisement by SoFi Technologies and is not intended to be financial advice.

B (19:35)

We're back with Profge Markets. It's official Video podcasts are coming to Netflix Netflix has announced that it is partnering with Spotify and the ringer to offer 16 podcast series on its platform starting in early 2026. The initial lineup will include the Bill Simmons podcast, Serial Killers and the Ringers flagship NFL and NBA shows. Full video episodes will be removed from YouTube and they will be available exclusively on Spotify and on Netflix. Netflix hinted about bringing podcasters onto the platform a few months ago. We actually discussed what that might look like back in April.

A (20:15)

Netflix will overnight be able to take. They'll own a bunch of podcasts. They might start early by just being a distribution platform, learning about it, making some ad revenue, and then they will go vertical and either launch their own or buy some. And they will make, I would bet, within 24 to 36 months. Three of the 10 biggest podcasts in the world are owned by Netflix.

B (20:37)

And now it appears that they are indeed going ahead with it. We will see podcasts on Netflix. Let's give Scott Galloway a call. Let's see what he makes of this move. Scott, good to see you.

D (20:53)

Good to be seen. Ad, what's going on?

B (20:54)

Not much. I see you are outside the pub. Are we interrupting something?

D (20:58)

So, Ad, I'm here at a classic British pub, which means I have American tourists in town. It's like when you live in New York, the only time you go to Broadway is when tourists or your mom's in town and they force you to go to Broadway. I would much rather be at a douchey LA like members club, but I've been dragged to one of these British pubs with my LA friends.

B (21:17)

Here we are. We want to get your reaction to this new move from Netflix. They are getting into podcasting officially. We talked about this a few months ago, how that might be happening. Now we know for sure Netflix is getting into podcasting. Your reactions of what that might mean for the podcasting industry?

D (21:35)

Well, we predicted this. What this is is it's squarely an indication that Netflix recognizes that their biggest competitor isn't Hulu or Disney. Their biggest competitor is YouTube. And YouTube is now the largest distribution platform for podcasts. 25% of the people who listen to this podcast will watch it on a TV, streaming it off of YouTube. So they recognize that they need to be in that game. And in addition, podcasts are the fastest growing ad supported medium in the world. Alphabet grew, I think 13%. I think meta was 16%. Podcast ad revenue was up 18%. Now, granted that's up off a much smaller base, but there really isn't a medium that's growing faster than podcasts. So this just makes all the sense in the world. I think we predicted this about six months ago. I'm shocked it took this long.

B (22:30)

Yeah, one thing is kind of interesting. These are exclusive deals. So basically when the podcast gets added to Netflix and Spotify, by the way, it's a partnership, the episode is taken off of YouTube. So you have to kind of choose. Any reactions to the way they're structuring that?

D (22:47)

Well, again, above, you know, see above, they see YouTube as their competitor. So Netflix is flexing their muscles and.

B (22:53)

Said.

D (22:56)

About 40 empty bottles of Guinness right there. So look, Netflix is flexing their muscles. They're like, we could be and should be the largest distribution platform for podcasts or could be. We can put you in front of 150 million eyeballs on the home screen. The home screen for Netflix is maybe, with the exception of the home screen on Instagram or the Google query box is the most valuable real estate on the world. And so they've said, look, if you want to have a shot of being a featured podcast, you can't be on YouTube. So, you know, I get it. What they've also done though, is the content. They're very strategic. They're doing sports, they're doing crime. They want to stay out of politics. I'm shocked they didn't go into business. I called Ted Sarandos about six months ago and said, why aren't you in podcasting? And he's a, you know, he's an incredibly smart, you know, kind of reeks of class kind of guy. And he said, well, we're thinking about it, we're looking at it. But this Netflix could be a kingmaker here. Those podcasts are going to be overnight some of the biggest pods in the world. And in addition, what they're doing here is what Netflix does. What their strategy is, is their, I call it the allied World War II strategy. And that is the Allies didn't have. The Germans had better tanks, better officers, better guns, better planes. But what they didn't have was gasoline. We had 38 gallons of gasoline for every 1 gallon the Allies had. And the Allies basically just overwhelmed the Axis power with gasoline and Amazon and Netflix basically overwhelmed the competition with capital. And in addition to just more gross tonnage of capital, Netflix produces more for less than anyone in the world in terms of quality of content. And the way they've done that is through these arbitrages. And the first was and arbitrage through geography. They're essentially producing stuff. Over 50% of their budget content budget is spent overseas because they can make a film for 70% of what it costs in America and Spain and maybe less than that in a place like Seoul. And in addition, this is the next arbitrage and that is a medium arbitrage. So if you look at Prop G and we've been open about this, our kind of top line is about 15 million, conservatively 20 people. That's 750 grand per employee. Let's look at BD Jimmy Kimmel or Stephen Colbert. 60 million 200 employees, 300,000 per employee. Comcast, CNBC, all those guys, 2 to $300,000 per employee. So effectively what's happening is they're arbitraging the medium. And what's happening is that essentially podcasts are becoming TV and tv, less slowly is becoming podcasts. And that is podcasts are essentially TV with a strong audio overlay that are 70 or 80% of the production quality if they do a good job of television at 10 to 20% of the price. So Netflix is going to be featuring TV shows that were traditionally known as podcasts. The cost, 10 or 20% as a similar TV show but already have a built in audience. I think this raises the stakes. It's going to increase the production value of podcasts. But essentially podcasts are the new television.

B (26:30)

Will property markets be on Netflix in the next few years?

D (26:33)

No, but what we'll likely do, in all seriousness is we'll likely find distribution. We will find distribution on television. We will take elements of our podcasts, we will cut them up, edit them for television and then news, MSNBC or CNBC or CNN or Netflix as a point of distribution and be able to strike a deal because the incremental cost of a network of having good quality content will be pretty minimal and the incremental cost to us for new distribution would pretty minimal. So, you know, effectively podcasts are smaller businesses that are much more profitable than traditional television and that's going to be very attractive if you've got two hours of open space on the weekend for an MSNBC or cnbc, why wouldn't you take the best business or the best politics podcast, edit it for tv, increasing production value and just split the revenue with the podcast producers. And it's no incremental risk to either party. So you're going to see TV become more like podcast and podcasts become more like TV. The mediums are converging, but ultimately the two big takeaways here are Netflix and YouTube have opened another front in the war against each other. And this is just arbitraging the means of production to produce produce content at a lower price, which is what the industry is looking for.

B (28:04)

All right, Scott, enjoy your pub dinner. What did you order?

D (28:07)

We had ribs. What did I order?

B (28:11)

Steak and ale pie or the hors d'?

D (28:13)

Oeuvres? The main course and the dessert? We had Guinness.

B (28:18)

That's a classic order. Okay, enjoy your night. Thank you, Scott.

D (28:22)

Thanks, guys.

B (28:27)

A powerhouse group of investors including Nvidia, Microsoft, XAI and BlackRock are buying one of the world's biggest data center operators. The $40 billion deal for aligned Data Centers is the largest data center acquisition ever. It's also the first investment from the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership, which was created last year to accelerate AI infrastructure spending. So BlackRock, Nvidia, Microsoft, XAI, they're all teaming up and they're going to buy this company, Aligned Data Centers. For context, this company was last valued in January at $12 billion. Nine months later, we are now at $40 billion. So this is a very rich valuation. It is also a rich valuation when you look at this as a multiple of sales. The company is doing about one and a half billion dollars in revenue, which would value the company at 25 times sales. That is far higher than Aligned Data Center's competitors like Equinix or DLR. They trade at around 10 times sales. So what are BlackRock and Nvidia and all these investors, what are they so excited about? Well, it's pretty simple. Data centers are the hot new thing. Everyone wants to build one, everyone wants to design one, everyone wants to invest in one. This deal is one of many deals we have seen. Roughly one and a half thousand new data centers have been announced this year. And in most cases, as with this one, the investors are paying a significant premium to get in on the action. So this is really nothing new. And it got us thinking, especially after our investigations into OpenAI and their spending ambitions, it got us thinking, how realistic is any of this, all of these data centers that we are seeing, is it hype or is it legit? Are we really going to see thousands of data centers? Or are investors getting overexcited about this to the point where it doesn't really make sense? Well, our research lead, Mia Silverio, uncovered some data that we found quite intriguing. And what it tells us is that despite all of the investment that we're seeing that is pouring into these data centers, the data centers themselves are not actually getting built right now. In fact, of all of the data centers that have been announced, only a quarter of them are actually undergoing construction. And this is especially apparent when you look at the earnings of the companies that actually do the building for these data centers. Jacobs Solution, for example, this is the number one company for data center engineering. Their revenue is actually flat. It hasn't grown in two years. Fluor Corp. Which is one of the top data center construction companies, they actually just reported a 6% decline in their sales and also a 12% decline in their backlog. That is the sales they're going to see in the future. So when we look at the data center activity that is happening, yes, a lot of investment, but not a lot of actual building. And then there is this other unanswered question, which is how all of these data centers are going to be powered. How are we going to supply the energy for all of these data centers? The number of interconnection requests, that is the applications that are required to connect these centers to the electric grid, that is power them. The number of those requests is currently 10 times higher than the number of data centers that are being built. In other words, the grid is overwhelmed right now, which means that it's not even clear if there's enough power to keep the data center's lights on. Which is why, by the way, these construction timelines to build these data centers, they keep on getting extended out by four, five, in some cases even six years. It's also why electric costs have doubled in the areas where data centers have been built. There is this mismatch between the supply for the data centers and the demand for the data centers. We keep on seeing all these deals about how all these data centers are going to get built. And then when it comes to actually building a thing, suddenly a lot of doubts come up, a lot of questions arise, and in many cases, these things aren't being built. Now, why is this important again? Why do we care? Well, because this is a major part of the AI story, and therefore it is potentially a major part of the AI bubble. We're seeing huge amounts of investment into these data centers and also a huge amount of data debt that is being issued to build them. In fact, when you look at the investment grade debt market, AI is the single largest source of debt in the US right now. There is more debt being issued in AI right now than in the entire financial sector. So in other words, what we're dealing with here isn't just equity risk. It's not just that we might see a wipeout in the values of many of these AI stocks or these AI private companies. We're also now dealing with credit risk. We are looking at the possibility of defaults on these data centers, and it could happen at a very large scale. Now, this isn't to say that the data center boom isn't going to happen, it almost certainly will. But it is to say that this boom, which everyone's very excited about, it's not going to be anywhere near as big as many investors seem to think. When you look at the actual economics of these things, suddenly you start to realize, actually this stuff doesn't really make sense. And if we had to make a prediction, we would estimate that roughly a third of these data centers that have been announced, roughly a third of them, will never actually materialize because the economics just don't work here. So next time you see a big data center headline like this one, these huge multiples, all of these very exciting investors, just remember, take it with a grain of salt. The investors are big, the numbers are sexy. But don't let that distract you from what is actually realistic. You always have to ask yourself, is this talk or is this action? Is it hype or is it legit? And will any of this actually materialize? Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Clay Miller, edited by Joel Path and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen o' Donoghue and Mia Silverio and our Technical director is Drew Burrows. Thank you for listening to Prof. G Markets from Profge Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. Tune in tomorrow for a conversation with Jonathan Kanter.

E (35:10)

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