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- [00:01]
Sponsor/Ad Announcer
Support for the show comes from bcx, the public ticker for private tech The US Stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation. From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies. But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out. Until now. Introducing vcx, a public ticker for private tech now available wherever you buy stocks. Visit getvcx.com for more info. That's getvcx.com carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information can be found in the Fund's prospectus@getvcx.com this is a paid sponsorship. Support for the show comes from Alumni Ventures. Your financial advisor may be perfectly happy keeping you in public index funds and spending the afternoon golfing hoping you don't call. But public markets are not the whole market anymore. Alumni Ventures has spent over a decade building a way for individual accredited investors to assemble their own blue chip venture portfolio backed by professional diligence and co investment alongside leading VC firms Time and CB Insights. Both Rank Alumni Ventures a top 20 US venture firm. You can sign up for free, see the weekly deal flow and decide for yourself, or write one check under the Alumni Ventures Foundation Fund. For a diversified portfolio of about 25 private venture deals, go to AV VC
- [01:27]
Jay Goldberg
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Sponsor/Ad Announcer
Exchanges on the M and A and IPO landscape Exchanges on the dynamics affecting global trade. For the sharpest analysis on finance, business and the economy, count on exchanges. The Goldman Sachs Podcast Listen now.
- [01:57]
Money Market Matter if money is evil,
- [02:00]
Ed Elson
then that building is hell goes up.
- [02:05]
Tim Farah
Sell Sell.
- [02:07]
Ed Elson
Welcome to Prof. G Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is August 12th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices declined again after another day without progress. In Iran, Brent crude climbed. The yield on 10 year treasuries inched lower ahead of the next inflation report due this morning. And finally, Apple shares fell more than 1% on news that its head of Apple Pay is retiring. Okay, what else is happening? Nvidia is joining forces with Wall street in one of the most ambitious financing efforts ever attempted. On Monday, Nvidia announced memorandums of understanding with six major asset managers to secure half a trillion dollars to fund the AI buildout. The firms will lend that capital to Nvidia's customers, helping them build more data centers and buy more chips. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Project the beginning of, quote, the next future for financial engineering. And Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that AI chips have now become an investable asset class. However, Nvidia Shares fell nearly 4% on the news, which was first reported by the Financial Times. Joining us to discuss this half a trillion dollar financing arrangement, we are speaking with Jay Goldberg, analyst at Seaport Global Securities. Jay, thanks for joining us on the show. I've been looking at this $500 billion deal. I can't really tell what the deal actually is. There are a bunch of Wall street banks and firms involved. It's a big number. But who's lending money to what? What is the financing package actually look like? What do we actually know about this?
- [03:56]
Jay Goldberg
We don't know a lot. There's a lot of unknowns in here. They had a press release out yesterday and the press release was almost entirely sort of hagiographic quotes from all the participants about how great they all were. And then Jensen posted on Twitter today, gave a little bit more, a little bit of granularity to a couple things, but we don't really know. And I think it's worth pointing out that in the press release it actually is very clear that the agreements are not finalized. So they don't know what the details are yet.
- [04:28]
Ed Elson
Yeah, I mean, the term that jumped out to me was memorandum of understanding. I've heard that before in a deal with Iran that turned out to not be a deal and turned out to be a little bit of a disaster. Is that the right comparison here?
- [04:43]
Jay Goldberg
I will say that Nvidia had a similar MoU with OpenAI, I don't know, six months ago, eight months ago, eons in AI time and they were going to invest a lot of money into OpenAI. And that deal again was press release before the contract was finalized and it ended up not happening or it radically shifted. It was a very different deal than the one that actually emerged six months afterwards. So Nvidia is a company that cares a lot about its image and likes to keep people excited. And so they put out this press release. I'm curious. I don't know why they did it. Now, that's a little odd. I don't know the timing, it seems, I don't say premature, but there's just a lot of unknowns.
- [05:32]
Ed Elson
What do you make of the stock reaction? The fact that Nvidia shares fell nearly 4%? I mean, if the idea was to inspire excitement and confidence, that's not what happened. What is the stock price telling us? What is Wall street feeling on this deal.
- [05:49]
Jay Goldberg
Yeah, I think there is an undercurrent among some investors, not all, but certainly sizable chunk of investors who are worried about circular financing. And this certainly looks like it's a big piece of circular financing going on here because Nvidia is providing money to customers to buy Nvidia parts. I think that makes people uncomfortable. Not run for the hills, sell all our Nvidia stock. But just like we're starting to see investors ask more questions about these kinds of deals and where this is all headed.
- [06:23]
Ed Elson
Jensen Huang wrote in the blog post, sort of announcing the deal. He addressed that question. He said, quote, is this circular financing? And then he continued on to say, this initiative is designed to address that concern. We are bringing independent, long term institutional capital into the AI infrastructure market. The demand is real. It comes from frontier AI labs, AI native startups, enterprise prizes, cloud providers and countries building AI services. The investors make independent financing decisions. I'm not sure he answers the question. He certainly doesn't say the word no or the words. It isn't circular financing. To what extent is this circular financing? What is circular about this, if at all?
- [07:08]
Jay Goldberg
So I think there's a fine line between when companies provide financing for their customers, there's a fine line between enabling demand and creating demand. And Nvidia has been walking that line ever closer for a couple years now. I think it's perfectly reasonable to provide some form of working capital loan. You give them favorable terms, you let the customer pay six months, nine months, that's a form of financing. Or you loan them a little bit of money. It's common practice in a lot of capex intensive industries. This one I think catches everyone's eye because it's so big. Half a trillion dollars like you said. And it's just not entirely clear if you are coming from the point of view that AI is a bubble and nobody can articulate what the ROI on that investment is or what even the use case is, or the business model. You had a guest on earlier this week who was talking about that. If you come from that viewpoint, this looks very much like Nvidia is creating demand that might not exist otherwise. Now Nvidia's take is no, no, we're not creating that demand. We see a mispriced asset class, if you will. The lenders don't know how to lend to this. They're missing the point, they're missing the opportunity. They don't understand it. We will step in and help bridge that gap. I get the logic, but it's such a big number and there's so many questions around it. It's hard to see this as something that's not Nvidia. Giving money to customers so they can buy from Nvidia. Left hand paying the right hand.
- [08:50]
Ed Elson
Is that the biggest risk for the company right now? Is that the main problem? And if so, is that why Jensen Huang is specifically calling it out in his blog post?
- [09:04]
Jay Goldberg
I don't know why he's addressing it in that way. I think he's very cognizant of what the street says about him and what the zeitgeist on the street is. So I think he wanted to address that. But I do think there is a bigger concern here which is as complicated as this is and you want to call it financial engineering or a whole new asset class, ultimately it's dead right? And lenders don't care about fancy technology, they don't care about AI. They care about when they're going to get paid back and ultimately who's responsible in the event of non payment. And so looking through all this, we don't know, but my strong suspicion is that Nvidia is backstopping, providing some form of guarantee not for the whole 500 billion, but but some portion of it. There's talk in his blog post about a 25% coverage of certain things, sort of paying for the depreciation risk, paying down, whatever the exact mechanism, we don't know. But Nvidia is providing some form of guarantee ultimately that is giving the lenders comfort enough that they can lend at a reasonable interest rate. Because imagine the counterfactual if Nvidia weren't involved in this, what would happen? These deals wouldn't get done because the interest rates would be too priced too high. What that all sort of boils down to is some of this is ultimately a form of debt for Nvidia. And I think debt is very pro cyclical. When times are good like they are now, everybody wants AI. So much demand, this is going to amp that up considerably. The problem is when the cycle turns, and the cycle always turns, this kind of thing will amplify the pain on the downside. Because imagine what happens some point in the future when the hyperscalers have run out of balance sheet and don't want to buy any more AI or can't afford to buy any more Nvidia GPUs. AI demand gets saturated. Just at that moment is when these obligations are going to come due and all the Neo clouds who have borrowed money from this platform are going to suddenly see unused capacity and they're going to put that back to Nvidia. But at the same time, Nvidia's own sort of core business. Sales will be declining or margins will be declining. Earnings will trend downwards. And that's going to be. It makes it much more painful on the backside of this. That's the big sort of fear.
- [11:33]
Ed Elson
It is debt, right? That $500 billion, I assume it's debt, you say it's seems like it's mostly debt. That's what it is, right? It's just $500 billion in debt.
- [11:45]
Jay Goldberg
Yeah, yeah, we don't know that. So we don't. Caging. I'm hedging a little bit, but yeah, it's debt. Like let's. Ultimately, it's a form of debt.
- [11:53]
Ed Elson
The one thing that I just want to get your reaction to as well, he mentioned this idea that chips are an investable asset class. That seems to be kind of the main thrust of this announcement. And he said that on cnbc he had this roundtable with all of the Wall Street CEOs. I want to play this clip and see what you make of it.
- [12:10]
Sponsor/Ad Announcer
This is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class. This is a very big concept. It's a big concept because the computers, these, these systems are not like our PCs are like our phones. These are revenue generating assets now. They're, they're productive, they're long lived, they're fungible, they're flexible. You can use it for all kinds of different things.
- [12:34]
Ed Elson
Why is it so important to him to communicate that the chips are an investable asset class? And why is that such an essential component of this big announcement?
- [12:46]
Jay Goldberg
So let me wind back the clock a couple years. There's a history here for Nvidia providing financing for customers. In the early days in 2022 and 2023, Nvidia provided essentially what I was talking about before, easy working capital terms to the first round of Neo Clouds like Core Weave. And it was so hot back then that Core Weave could take delivery of systems, earn enough from running those systems for a few months that they could pay back Nvidia very quickly. Over time, as the Neo Clouds and Nvidia's ambitions grew, that wasn't enough. The numbers got too big and so Nvidia started getting more actively involved. And the key thing they did at that point was they provided backstops. Right. If you can't sell all the compute, we're selling you. If you can't use it all, we'll buy some percentage of it. Now Today, Nvidia already has. As of last quarter, Nvidia had $30 billion of what do they call, compute service agreements in place. It's not on their books, it's not on the balance sheet, but it's in the footnotes. What's been happening on the debt side as these Neo clouds, these new cloud service providers are coming up. There are hundreds of them now and they've all gone to lenders and said, hey, loan us some money so we can buy some GPUs. And the lenders look at that and they want collateral. And they have always said that the GPUs are not sufficient collateral. And so if you look at most of the really big Neo cloud financings that have taken place, the debt is ultimately backed not by the GPUs, not the hardware, but by the customers. Right. Microsoft signs a long term agreement, they're going to buy this compute. That's, that's the credit guarantee that the lenders want. And even that wasn't enough. And so Nvidia's had to step in more and more to provide sort of a topper on that commitment. I think a lot of the, the borrowers in this market would really, really, really like to have GPUs themselves as collateral. Because we're at the point now where the hyperscalers who have been providing most of the commitments so far are getting much more aggressive in building their own capacity. They don't need to use third parties as much. They're less willing to sign these deals with third party neoclouds. They want to use their balance sheet for their own purposes, for buildings and data centers that they control. That that sort of source of guarantee is not going away, it's not gone, but it's probably shrinking. And so what's going to provide the guarantee here? What's going to be the collateral? It sure would be nice if the lenders would accept GPUs as collateral. And I think that's the message he's trying to get across. I personally don't think that's going to land with investors. I think they're still going to want to see some other forms of guarantees. And that's ultimately why Nvidia is going to take on some form of obligation here.
- [15:40]
Ed Elson
So he's basically saying this is the anchor of the $500 billion in debt that I'm about to go raise and you guys should all do the same thing because this is something that we can all do, right?
- [15:52]
Jay Goldberg
That's right. Now, in fairness to them, I will say that one of the big concerns around this market has been depreciation of GPUs. This has been hotly debated. Michael Burry's talked about it, you guys have talked about it. Jensen makes a valid point in that older hardware doesn't depreciate quite as quickly as the worst, as the Bears will say. And Nvidia has actually done a really good job of updating and advancing the capabilities of its older platforms. So you can get more output, more tokens from a system now than you could a year ago from the same system through software and other tweaks. So there is some of that too. He's trying to get that message across to you, and they've done a good job of that. I want to give them credit for it. But ultimately it's trying to sell GPUs as collateral and it's a tough sell to investors.
- [16:43]
Ed Elson
All right. Jay Goldberg is analyst at Seaport Global Securities. Jay, we really appreciate your time. Thank you.
- [16:50]
Jay Goldberg
Thank you.
- [16:51]
Ed Elson
After the break, an update on the space industry. And by the way, starting Monday, this show will be taking a summer vacation. Yes, we will be on break for the next two weeks. We will be back on August 31st with a fresh episode. Until then, enjoy your summer.
- [17:16]
Sponsor/Ad Announcer
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- [20:48]
Ed Elson
We're back with Prof. G Markets. Two of the biggest space companies in America reported earnings Monday night, and neither one gave investors much to like Rocket Lab brought in a record $234 million in revenue, up 62% from last year, but it lost more money than analysts were expecting. AST Space Mobile came in short on reven revenue and its losses more than doubled to $231 million. A big chunk of that loss was $126 million write off from a satellite that Blue Origin had launched into the wrong orbit earlier this year. Both stocks fell on those reports. The real story for these two though goes back to June when SpaceX went public and investors sold off the rest of the sector, presumably to buy in. Rocket Lab dropped 11% on the day of SpaceX's IPO and AST dropped 60, 16%. Space stocks continue to slide through July with some of them cratering as much as 40%. Today, SpaceX trades below its IPO price, but that money still hasn't come back to the rest of the space sector. So what is next for the space industry? We are speaking with Tim Farah, president of TMF Associates. Tim, thanks for joining us on the show. We got some some pretty important earnings reports from two of the other big space companies, AST Space Mobile and also Rocket Lab. It seems that investors are getting kind of shaky about this sector right now. What do you make of the earnings and what do you make of space post SpaceX IPO?
- [22:27]
Tim Farah
Well, both Rocket Lab and AST are trying to emulate SpaceX. They're trying to vertically integrate. So Rocket Lab started off building rockets. It moved into satellite systems. Now it's buying Iridium to add the application layer to that service. So that's the same as SpaceX which start off with rockets building satellites, build up Starlink itself. AST started in a different direction. They started building satellites to launch their own constellation. They've just raised over a billion dollars a couple of months ago to try and move into the launch business because they're struggling to get launches from third parties. And as you said, they had the problems with Blue Origin, which were amplified when the new Glenn rocket exploded on the pad just after their failed launch. And now they're scrambling for launches. So, you know, all these companies are trying to put those three things together and build up their companies, but they're suffering from delays. So AST has got this problem trying to find launches to launch its satellites. It struggled to build as many satellites as it wanted to do as well. And then after that it has obviously to stand up a service and try and compete head to head with Starlink Rocket Lab. You know, they're launching their small rocket, but they've got this new bigger neutron rocket coming along and that's really, really delayed. You know, last year they were saying it was going to launch in 25. Now they're saying we hope 26. A lot of analysts are thinking probably 27. And that's really critical to launch more and bigger satellites and take advantage of this consolidation with Iridium.
- [24:06]
Ed Elson
To what extent did the SpaceX IPO change the dynamics of this market? Because, I mean, you had a handful of names. These were some of the hottest stocks last year, the space stocks specifically. Then SpaceX comes along, gigantic company, one of the most valuable companies in the world. Presumably that really shakes up the way this market works. How has it affected things in the space industry?
- [24:29]
Tim Farah
Well, I think both Rocket Lab and AST had got very inflated valuations based on their current business. I mean, that's a lot the same as SpaceX. It also has a really high valuation for the size of the business it actually has. So the fall in SpaceX has been mirrored by a fallback in these valuations as well. But I think the difference between the two companies is that Rocket Lab is buying an established business with Iridium. That should be a fairly solid business. It generates a bunch of cash flow in a way you could say maybe it's a bit like a AOL back in 2000 buying Time Warner and exchanging its shares for real assets. But it's a good thing to do if you have a high flying stock. And AST on the other hand, has really been trying to do it all itself and now has sort of been stranded by the lack of launches.
- [25:19]
Ed Elson
Are all of them inflated in your view? Are they all overvalued?
- [25:23]
Tim Farah
I think that's right. I think certainly where those companies have gone up to, based on the current revenues and the profitability, I think it's hard to know how they will trade relative to SpaceX. Because SpaceX is so dominant in this business now. It's got all this cash on its balance sheet. Yeah, it may spend most of that on AI and stuff like that, but it's competing really heavily, particularly against AST. We've heard all this news about SpaceX getting into the mobile business, competing with the mobile carriers, building a whole new generation of Starlink mobile satellites. And that's exactly what AST is trying to do as well. So Rocket Lab I think has a slightly better position. It's trying to avoid the head to head competition with SpaceX. Iridium is very much in the safety services, things like position, navigation and timing, things like aviation and maritime safety. Not quite so threatened by SpaceX, but still, yeah, these things are going to trade. If people are negative about SpaceX, they're going to start to be negative about some of these other companies as well, at least on a valuation perspective.
- [26:29]
Ed Elson
What do you make of the fact that SpaceX has been plowing so much of its money and also just its sort of its time and its energy into the AI story? Because I look at space and I'm like, this is a hot sector. This is what every investor has gotten so excited about. And then suddenly it seems like SpaceX pivots away from space. Space is now like a tenth of their business, and now it's all about AI. It's all about being something between a Google Hyperscaler and an anthropic or an OpenAI. I mean, what does that say about the space industry if we're no longer the largest space company in the world, isn't even a space company?
- [27:09]
Tim Farah
Well, I think the question marks are there about what is the ultimate size of the Starlink business and the launch business as well. So, you know, AI, no one knows how big it is, but we all assume it's going to be many billions, if not trillions of dollars, not least because all the other companies are investing in it as well. Space, it's a more limited market. Historically, it's been pretty small. Now, Elon Musk spent half the weekend on X talking about how he was going to take over the Internet and convey most Internet traffic over Starlink in the future and how it was going to serve lots of robots and every car in the world. You know, that's all a bit crazy, but I think it speaks to the fact that he's got to sort of talk up SpaceX and Starlink as well, because he can't just lean everything on AI.
- [27:58]
Ed Elson
What do you make of some of the bull cases that we're hearing as it relates to space, specifically orbital data centers, asteroid mining. I mean, one of the other big projects for SpaceX is civilizations on Mars and civilizations on the moon. It seems a little nuts, but are those real? Are those businesses that are actually going to materialize in your view?
- [28:25]
Tim Farah
Well, I think they're all far into the future. And I think what Musk threw out there on the earnings call last week was a statement that Starship's going to be launching every day next year, 12 months from now. And that's not going to be filled up with people going asteroid mining or colonizing the moon or any of these sorts of things. Not even going to be filled up with data centers, because they have to go and get their tariff factory built to make the chips that go on those satellites. They're going to have to get this launch site. They're buying some more land in Louisiana, that they're going to have to build a new launch site for all these orbital data center satellites. Those are going to take years. So next year, if Musk is right and they're going to be launching starship every week or every day even, that's going to have to be filled up with Starlink satellites. And that's why so keen to highlight that there's this huge market for Starlink.
- [29:16]
Ed Elson
What is the most realistic bull case, in your view, for the space industry? What is the prize that might actually come to fruition in the space industry over the next few years?
- [29:31]
Tim Farah
Well, the real question is how competitive space becomes with terrestrial. To date, Starlink has, has made a lot of progress. It's got to $10 billion of revenue, over 10 billion last year. But that's just really taking business away from existing satellite companies. It's competing for people who didn't really have much option. Now they're starting to take on the terrestrial telcos. And that's why we hear all this noise about what T Mobile and AT and T and Verizon think of all this. Data centers are the same sort of thing. They've got to compete with terrestrial data centers as well. So people say, well, let's put all these data centers in space because we're not going to have all these environmentalists. Well, maybe, but maybe they might object to launch sites as well. But that's the real question is how economic are things going to be in space relative to on the ground? And to be honest, I think people forecast space is going to be much better than on the ground. Now is. You know, it's hard to believe that space is going to improve so quickly, but stuff on the ground isn't going to get solved as well. You know, nuclear power stations on the ground, you know, might solve the power problem. You know, there's a lot of land in places like Texas that aren't necessarily going to be so environmentally sensitive as other states around the country. You know, I'm bullish about what might happen on the ground. And so I think that inevitably means that what we do in space is going to tend to be limited to a small percentage of the overall market.
- [31:05]
Ed Elson
All right, Tim Farah, president of TMF Associates. Tim, appreciate your time. Thank you.
- [31:10]
Tim Farah
Thank you.
- [31:14]
Ed Elson
Startup founder Phoebe Gates, the daughter of Bill Gates, is being investigated for defrauding her client clients with fake revenue numbers. According to Bloomberg, the Stanford grad engaged in something known in the affiliate marketing industry as cookie stuffing. A common form of fraud where you take credit for sales that you didn't actually drive. And according to Bloomberg, she knew what she was doing, but she did it anyway. Now, I could understand why a more desperate founder who needed the money might engage in this kind of thing. But. But it's unclear why you would ever try to defraud your way into financial success if your dad was Bill Gates. So the only explanation that makes any sense to me at least, is more of a sociological phenomenon that we have discussed before. And that is this idea of the cult of entrepreneurship. And that is today, unlike any time in history, everyone wants to be a founder. Because unlike in years previous, when being a founder basically just meant being a business person, today it means being a a lot of other things too. It means being an influencer, a celebrity, a trendsetter, maybe even a podcast host. These are the kinds of sociocultural benefits that are now associated with being a founder. And as evidenced by Phoebe Gates, it's now gotten to a point where it's not even about the money. It's about everything else. This is what happens when a society is trained to believe that its ultimate heroes are the founders of tech companies. Everyone wants to be the next Steve Jobs, the next Jensen Huang, the next Bill Gates. The upside is it does mean more business formation. But the downside is this. From Sam Bankman Fried to Elizabeth Holmes and now Phoebe Gates, too many young people have gotten drunk on the Kool Aid that is founder worship. And as with any addictive substance, the ramifications can be devastating. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Kristin o' Donoghue and Mia Silverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Property Markets from Prophetry Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow.
- [33:47]
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- [34:26]
Tim Farah
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Jay Goldberg
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Tim Farah
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Jay Goldberg
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Jay Goldberg
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Tim Farah
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Tim Farah
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- [34:53]
Jay Goldberg
Rated PG13.
- [34:54]
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