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Prof G Markets
Israel-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Prices, Meta Monetizes WhatsApp, & Tron’s IPO Grift
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- [00:01]
Ed Elson
When you open a Corona, you hear the sounds of wherever you are a little differently, a little more Corona and you think to yourself, why am I just listening? Corona La Playa awaits. Relax. Responsibly Corona Extra Beer imported by Crown.
- [00:29]
Scott Galloway
Import, Chicago, IL Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte.
- [00:39]
Ed Elson
Paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is.
- [00:44]
Scott Galloway
With Thumbtack you don't have to be.
- [00:46]
Ed Elson
A home pro, you just have to hire one.
- [00:48]
Scott Galloway
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Rebecca Babin
90 calories, 2.6 carbs and an undeniably.
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Scott Galloway
Crisp refreshing taste you can't help but share because with Corona Premier, the best play happens off the field. Welcome to the premier side of light Corona Premier Drink Responsibly Corona Premier Beer imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, IL Premier 12 Fluid ounce serving Average analysis Cows 90 Carbs 2.6 grams Protein 0.7 grams.
- [01:24]
Ed Elson
Fat 0.0 grams Today's number 84,000 that's how many baristas participated in Starbucks very first Global Barista Championship last week. The winner, barista Nobuki from Japan was crowned the Starbucks Global Barista Champion. As his reward, he will quote, have the opportunity to co create a beverage that will be served in Starbucks coffee houses in in the near future. Congratulations to Nobuki on your win and also my congratulations to Starbucks. It's been a very rough couple of years for the company. Everyone's been saying that management's gotten very distracted. But I think we can all agree after this news, Starbucks is back to focusing on what really matters.
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Scott Galloway
Money, market matter.
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Ed Elson
If money is evil, then that building is hell. The show goes on. Starbucks are not watching.
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Scott Galloway
Sell Sell.
- [02:19]
Ed Elson
Welcome to Profit you Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is June 17th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rallied on the news that Iran wants to de escalate the conflict with Israel. Even as strikes continued, the Dow recovered nearly half of its Friday losses. The S and P advanced 1% and the Nasdaq surged 1.5% as tech led the charge. Meanwhile, oil prices fell after spiking over the weekend. More on that in a moment. And after hitting a record High Friday, gold fell 1% as investors retreated Slightly from the Safe Haven asset. Okay, what else is happening? Oil prices were on the move after the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated over the weekend. The initial attacks by Israel sent oil prices up around 7%. On Friday, Brent crude hit a high point of $74 per barrel, which is actually lower than the average for 2024. But it's still a bit little lot higher than where it was about a month ago. The markets continued to waver. But then yesterday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is now signaling it wants to de escalate this conflict, the price of oil came back down. It closed the day 2% lower. So this is a very serious and scary situation that is unfolding. And I don't think the story here is what's happening to the price of oil. The story here is obviously the war between Iran and Israel and what could happen if this war escalates any further. That is what matters here. And I'm also not here to give you any trading tips on how to play this conflict. That's not of interest to me. I don't think it should really be of interest to anyone. But the reason the price of oil is worth paying attention to is that it does provide some worthy context on this situation that is quite difficult to pass out. And I think the question of lot of people have been asking is how bad is this? Is this World War 3? Is this the precipice of a nuclear situation? Is this war going to spread further across the Middle east and perhaps towards the West? Those are the questions that I have been hearing and I don't know the answers to those questions. I'm not a geopolitical analyst but I can look at the price of oil. And if you look at the price of oil today, the the answer to those questions would be no. The initial jump we saw on Friday was quite scary and it was a similar one day increase to what we saw in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. But unlike that invasion where the price of oil continued to surge, what we have seen thus far is some moderation. This is the market telling us we're worried, but we're not that worried. The conflict remains relatively contained. It was Iran is still in quite a weak position. And even though Israel did target Iran's domestic oil facilities, its international export facilities, those are still intact and Iran can still participate in the global oil economy. So in sum, the market seems to believe that the situation is relatively manageable. And it certainly does not believe that we have a World War 3 on our hands which everyone was Understandably worried about. Having said that, we don't know what's going to happen next. And there are huge tail risks in all of this. I mean, Israel has proven it could cripple Iran if it wanted to. And if it decided to take that route, if, for example, it decided to attack those export facilities that I mentioned, then suddenly Iran would have a lot less to lose and the situation could spiral out of control. These are all very, very real possibilities. And I'm not going to predict what is or isn't going to happen. But if you look at the markets and if you look at the price of oil today, your best bet here would be that the situation is somewhat under control. Now, we wanted to find out more about this, specifically about how investors are pricing in all of this uncertainty. So our producer Claire spoke with Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
- [06:21]
Rebecca Babin
The the real tail risk here is that Israel pushes Iran to a point where they throw a Hail Mary and they try to start targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran exports 1.6 million barrels a day out of the 103 million we consume. If you target the Strait of Hormuz, that's 20 million barrels of crude and product that flows through there that could therefore be impacted in that scenario. The math the that people have done put crude at going to something over $100 a barrel, maybe $120 a barrel. If the Strait of Hormuz flows are actually impacted. This is a very low probability. Right? This is why crude isn't reacting. The place you see this is being priced and this might be really kind of in the weeds is in the option market, crude oil options. People are buying those kind of tail hedge options to kind of hedge themselves for that event. And so those options have gotten very expensive. It's not what people think is going to happen, but the outside chance has gone from like a 1% probability to now people saying it's a 10 to 12% probability in terms of Iranian supply. If we do see Israel hit those export facilities, we're like, we're down today. We will absolutely rally. I think there will be a 5 to 10% rally on that. Not only because it's solidifies or crystallizes the fact that supply will be impacted, whereas right now we're just fearing that reality, but it'll also very likely lead to a significant next step in escalation. And we don't all know what that next step would be, but we know the Strait of Hormuz is the threat that Iran has already always used. So that's where the market's mind is going to go. So you would see a very significant reaction if that were to happen. There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in terms of what they're targeting, how they're doing it. But as of right now, looking at doesn't look like they want to go that direction. So I think something would have to change to make that happen. Most analysts would reference a significantly large amount of civilian casualties in Israel might be that red line that would push that type of action. And then the crude market for for sure is not priced for that right now.
- [08:42]
Ed Elson
That was Rebecca Babin, trader at CIBC Private Wealth. Somewhat assuring, but as she says, still extremely uncertain. So we will keep tabs on this. Meta is finally bringing ads to WhatsApp. The company announced yesterday that businesses will now be able to run what they call status ads on the app. Those ads will be displayed in the WhatsApp updates tab, which will be kept separate from your personal conversations. Meta will also start monetizing WhatsApp's channels feature with search ads and subscriptions. Meta shares rose 2 1/2% on that news. So a lot of people are a little upset about this. I think they're especially upset considering that WhatsApp's whole thing before they were acquired by Facebook was that they did not run ads. And that was 11 years ago when Facebook acquired the company for $19 billion. Now here we are, 2025, WhatsApp is running ads. And I get it. You know, ads are annoying. No one likes them. And if you're a power user of WhatsApp, you're probably not happy about this news. But if there's anyone out there who is surprised by this or shocked that WhatsApp would go against their word, all I would tell you is that you haven't been paying attention. Because if there's anything we've learned about the digital economy in the past 10, 15, 20 years, it's that everything will, at one point or another, be subsidized by ads, whether it's YouTube or recently Netflix, or even Uber and DoorDash, which are, as we discussed in yesterday's episode, increasingly becoming ad companies. Both of those companies are estimated to have generated more than a billion dollars in ad revenue last year. So the way I would put it is that in 2025, there's no such thing as an ad free lunch. And WhatsApp was never an exception to that rule, and it never was gonna be an exception to that rule. They've got roughly 3 billion users around the world, half of which interact with that updates tab every single day. So, by our very conservative estimates, this is gonna generate nearly $4 billion in additional ad revenue for Meta. That's an annual increase of 3%. So this is a great and more importantly, easy opportunity for Meta. And it was never a question of if they were going to monetize. It was always a question of when. Now, as it happens, our own Scott Galloway is parting it up at Cannes Lions right now, which is the mecca of the advertising industry. Perhaps he's learned something. So let's check in on what's happening in Cannes. Scott, how's it going?
- [11:27]
Scott Galloway
It's going really well. I'm here at the Hotel de Cafe, so, yeah, everything's great.
- [11:32]
Ed Elson
Give us a little more of a view of what's going on at the Hotel de Cap. That's probably the most famous hotel in the world.
- [11:38]
Scott Galloway
Not a lot going on here, though. Happening is the iHeartMedia party, which I did not get invited to, but I'm going to go down anyways and tell them I know Ed Olson.
- [11:47]
Ed Elson
Oh, that would be nice. I'm surprised you didn't get invited to the iHeart party considering you won the iHeart award last year. How does that make sense?
- [11:55]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, it doesn't make sense, and I'm lying. Of course I'm invited anyway. So let's talk about what's up. So WhatsApp's, they're starting monetizing it. It's kind of shocking it took them this long. The revenue estimates will be overestimated because the places WhatsApp is strongest have the lowest monetization in the US medic. It's about 70 bucks a person an hour through in the markets for WhatsApp is strongest. It doesn't get nearly that monetization. It gets a dollar to $5. However, it'll be incremental revenue growth that analysts are sighted around the potential. You know, WhatsApp is, I think, is arguably the biggest messaging company or phone telecom account. I would just hate to be AT and T or Verizon right now. In a world of WhatsApp, I find WhatsApp is actually more dependable than AT&T and Verizon. And the thing that strikes me is Mark Zuckerberg has made two of the three or four best acquisitions in history. Instagram at a billion, probably objectively worth 2 to 300 billion now. And WhatsApp, everyone thought he was fucking crazy for spending 19 billion on WhatsApp, a company with nearly zero revenue and that looked like it's probably going to add 100 or 200 billion in market cap if you were to suss it out. And this is going to be a great story for them. In earnings calls, they'll be able to report huge increases in revenue on their WhatsApp division.
- [13:15]
Ed Elson
Now you are at can, which is I would call the advertising mecca. You're at the heart of it all. So what are the takeaways so far from can and specifically what are these ad executives thinking with respect to Meta and potentially with respect to this new update from WhatsApp?
- [13:33]
Scott Galloway
I think the vibe is the same and that is we're in our 30s and 40s, we have good jobs, we get to come to can and the oxygen is being sucked out of the room slowly. So let's enjoy it while we can. I mean, if you think about it, publicity, which is really interesting, has kind of pulled away from WPP and Omnicom and it's now worth 25 or 26 billion. So WPP is 8 billion. And I was at Salesforce. Today they have a new kind of. You can tell who's growing and who isn't. Salesforce has a beach now and their market cap is 250 million. So salesforce is worth quintuple 5 times what the entire ad industry of the traditional ad industry is worth. And then down the, down the beach you have Meta and Alphabet, who are worth five times what Salesforce is worth. So it's kind of like, it's kind of. You know what I can is what I'd call an extended last meal for the advertising business.
- [14:27]
Ed Elson
Just pulse marketing. What share of people that you're hanging out with or meeting work for Big Tech? Would you, would you say, and has it increased since you were there, say 10 years ago?
- [14:40]
Scott Galloway
Oh, there's no comparison. It used to be 1 in 10, now it's now it's 1 in 3. And 80% of the good parties are being financed or paid for by Big Tech. So, you know, let me put it this way. Big tech might be only have a third of the people here, but they're definitely on top. They've really taken over. It's just striking how over the last 10 years how the world has changed, you know, I mean, whoever thought I'd be hosting a podcast with a fucking 26 year old anyways?
- [15:14]
Ed Elson
All right, well, we'll let you go enjoy your drinks on the beach with Iheartra. Sounds very fun.
- [15:19]
Scott Galloway
I'm WPP, you're meta, you're 2008, I'm 2000 late.
- [15:24]
Ed Elson
I don't think that's true.
- [15:25]
Scott Galloway
There you go.
- [15:26]
Ed Elson
Well, enjoy your night. Scott, thanks for tuning in.
- [15:28]
Scott Galloway
All right, brother, Thanks a lot. Take care.
- [15:31]
Ed Elson
After the break, a crypto firm with ties to Trump is going public. Stay with us.
- [15:41]
Scott Galloway
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- [17:57]
Rebecca Babin
Fox Creative this is Advertiser Content from Adobe. As the Chief Marketing Officer for a tech company, I lead a team that makes fresh content on a daily basis.
- [18:08]
Ed Elson
But this month has been particularly nuts because we're planning a conference. There are dozens of people working together.
- [18:15]
Rebecca Babin
On all the documents, slides, posters, flyers and merchandise. Fortunately, our event marketer is the best.
- [18:23]
Ed Elson
In the business and she said 2. Adobe Express Adobe Express has been a lifesaver.
- [18:30]
Scott Galloway
Brand kits have kept everything consistent. Templates mean whatever content we need to.
- [18:34]
Ed Elson
Create looks slick and professional from the start, and easy syncing of assets means.
- [18:39]
Scott Galloway
That anytime a change comes in, like.
- [18:41]
Ed Elson
A last minute swap out of our new app logo, I know that every team member will instantly have access to the latest version.
- [18:49]
Scott Galloway
That way I know when the curtain.
- [18:50]
Rebecca Babin
Goes up, isn't that new logo gorgeous?
- [18:54]
Scott Galloway
Everything will go off with without a.
- [18:56]
Ed Elson
Hitch, Adobe Express, the quick and easy app to create on brand content.
- [19:02]
Rebecca Babin
Learn more@adobe.com Express Business.
- [19:13]
Ed Elson
We'Re back with Prof. G Markets Crypto platform Tron will go public in the US this year in a reverse merger with the publicly listed company SRM Entertainment. After the news was reported yesterday by the Financial Times, shares in SRM Entertainment surged 647%. Now that is obviously significant given the percentage increase, but it's also not that significant considering the market cap of the company, which is still quite small at $155 million. But it's the context around this reverse merger that really matters here and that we should really focus on, and I'm just going to go through some of the details in that context. So, first detail. In 2023, Tron and its founder Justin sun, were charged by the SEC over allegations that they had sold unregistered securities and engaged in market manipulation. That investigation was dropped, however, four months ago when Trump took office. The second important detail is that last month Justin sun, the founder, attended President Trump's crypto banquet as he was one of the top 24 holders of the Trump meme coin. Justin sun also invested $75 million into World Liberty Financial, which is a crypto company run by Trump's family. I will also note that President Trump personally derived $57 million in income from that company. The third detail, the investment bank that brokered this deal, this reverse merger, is a slightly obscure boutique bank known as Dominari Securities. This bank is headquartered in New York. It is more specifically headquartered in Trump Tower, and even more specifically headquartered on the 23rd floor, two floors below the Trump Organization's office. A company filing also reveals two new appointments to the Dominari Securities Advisory Board, and they are Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. So that's the third detail, and the fourth and final detail which is the most important. Eric Trump is expected to take up a role in this company, which will be called Tron Inc. So if the grift wasn't apparent to you before, let me just lay it out again for you now. A crypto founder who was charged with securities fraud and market manipulation, who then bought millions of dollars worth of Trump Coin and World Liberty, who then got his fraud charges dropped by Trump's sec, is now going public in a reverse merger that was brokered by the bank, that is advised by Trump's children, and which will place Eric Trump in a leadership position of this new public company. I can't really believe it, but what I just said is a real and factually accurate sentence that is actually happening. And it's sad for so many reasons. I mean, one of which is the fact that the President has now become this investment vehicle in which you can basically park money to flout and escape the law. And another is the fact that this type of bribery can actually make you a lot of money. I mean, it's not a coincidence that that the stock ripped more than 600%. But the part that really upsets me is the fact that all of this grift is contingent on their going out and raising money in the public markets. It would be different if they were, say, going to Wall street and pitching private institutional investors on all of their money laundering schemes. But the thing is, they know that that won't work because they know that the people on Wall street are frankly too smart to buy into this bullshit. So instead, what do they do? They go out to the public markets and this is what they've done every time. Because they believe that the only person dumb enough to hand over their money to them like this is a Trump loving retail investor who thinks Eric and Don Jr. Are the geniuses who are going to make them rich. That's who they're going after. And look, you can call me pretentious and you can call me rude for saying that, but what I'm telling you is this. That's what they think, that's what they believe, and that's why they're doing this. And so anytime you hear these guys talking about how much they love the American people, how much they love their supporters, how they love the base, just remind yourself, remember what they really think of the base. Just think of how lowly you would have to regard these people to rip them off as shamelessly as they've done. And keep in mind the fact that while a handful of insiders, including Justin sun by the way, made more than a billion dollars on that Trump co, there are 600,000 other small time investors out there who have lost almost $4 billion on this so far. So this is just another story of grift and corruption in Trump's crypto network. We've seen it all before, but look, you can lock in this very easy prediction from me right now. It won't be the last. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks for listening to profit markets from the very Vox Media Podcast network. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow. With HubSpot's suite of AI powered tools, you can get more done way faster, speed up your lead generation and create attention grabbing, lead driving, quota crushing campaigns in an instant. Get started today@HubSpot.com AI support for this show comes from WhatsApp.
- [25:02]
Rebecca Babin
The personal chat on WhatsApp is a place where you share everything from the mundane connections to the memories that mean everything. It's a place that can truly feel.
- [25:11]
Ed Elson
Like it's your own and WhatsApp makes.
- [25:14]
Rebecca Babin
Sure everything stays protected from outside eyes, even theirs. No one, not even WhatsApp, can see or hear your personal messages.
- [25:23]
Ed Elson
That includes personal calls, plus any documents.
- [25:26]
Rebecca Babin
Photos or media that you share in your personal chat. WhatsApp message privately with everyone.
- [25:33]
Ed Elson
Visit WhatsApp.com privacy to learn more.
- [25:39]
Rebecca Babin
Thanks to Smartsheet for their support. No matter the challenge your team is trying to solve, no matter the innovation you're working to achieve, every team needs tools to help their workflow. Smartsheet is the innovative work management platform that allows teams to remove distractions, collaborate across projects, and efficiently solve whatever challenges come their way. Real, innovative work needs a place to flourish, and smartsheet is that place. Smartsheet Work with Flow learn more@smartsheet.com Vox.