Nasdaq Posts Best Day Since May as Fear & Greed Collide

Summary

Prof G Markets – Episode Summary

Podcast: Prof G Markets
Episode: Nasdaq Posts Best Day Since May as Fear & Greed Collide
Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson (Vox Media Podcast Network)
Featured Guests: Robert Armstrong (Financial Times), Catherine Ann Edwards (Labor Economist)

---

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the tumultuous market action that saw the Nasdaq notch its best day since May amid a broader context of volatility. Host Ed Elson is joined by Financial Times commentator Robert Armstrong to unpack the driving forces behind the "fear and greed" dynamic in stocks, and later by labor economist Catherine Ann Edwards to dissect the latest, mixed U.S. jobs report. The episode closes with a sharp critique of the recently-disbanded Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and its fiscal impact.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Volatility & Whipsaw Moves

[03:03–14:55]
Participants: Ed Elson & Robert Armstrong

The Big Picture

• The market has been highly volatile, whipsawing between deep declines and sharp rallies, particularly as earnings from giants like Nvidia reset market sentiment.
• Quote:

  "These are the kinds of days, as several of my readers have pointed out, that are designed to make market commentators like me look stupid... the volatility is telling you something here, which is there is... a market in conflict with itself where strong fear is meeting strong greed." —Robert Armstrong [03:35]

Fear vs. Greed

• Investors feel compelled to be "in" the market due to FOMO (fear of missing out) but are simultaneously aware that valuations are stretched and risks abound.
• Quote:

  "If you're not in the market right now, you're missing out on a huge opportunity... And, you know, there may be some truth to that. And we know that the market is expensive and there are some scary things going on we don't quite understand." —Robert Armstrong [03:54]

On Market Valuations

• High market valuations (like elevated P/E ratios) do not predict short-term returns but become significant over longer horizons (5–10 years).
• Quote:

  "Over the short term, like a year or two or three years, that [valuation] is not predictive information... It's only after 5, 7, 10 years that the valuation... really matters." —Robert Armstrong [05:40]

Policy and Fiscal Stimulus

• Armstrong posits that the political environment is likely to remain risk-friendly as the administration seeks to stimulate the economy before the midterms, especially through deficit spending. This could boost markets in the short run, even if longer-term concerns loom.
• Quote:

  "If the government spends money, history shows us over the short term, that's good for the stock market." —Ed Elson [07:54]

The Bear Case for 2026

• If inflation rises above 4%, it becomes politically difficult for both the administration and the Fed to continue aggressive stimulus.
• Risks include a large correction in Nvidia or other mega-cap stocks, and potential trade policy shocks.
• Quote:

  "If we have inflation run past, say, four, then... the wheels really come off." —Robert Armstrong [09:46] "Nvidia, look, company's worth $4.5 trillion. Right. Like that's a mighty big boat if it hits an iceberg." —Robert Armstrong [10:06]

On 'TANKO' and Political Risks

• Armstrong references his coined term "TANKO" (Trump Always Never Kicks Out), warning that real ideological or trade confrontations with China, instead of mere posturing, could be destabilizing.
• Quote:

  "If he... gets into a real ideologically driven trade war with China rather than a posturing war, I don't like that much." —Robert Armstrong [11:33]

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride

• Bitcoin is behaving as a highly speculative asset, dismissing narratives that frame it as “digital gold.”
• Quote:

  "It just looks like it trades like NASDAQ after 10 drinks, basically." —Robert Armstrong [12:45]

What to Watch Going Forward

• Armstrong is watching for signs that strong corporate earnings no longer move share prices—a classic sign the market is “fully saturated” and vulnerable to exits.
• Quote:

  "When companies do well and the stocks don't respond that much, as was the case with Nvidia, that tells you something... everybody who can be in the market is in the market." —Robert Armstrong [13:53] "The only door that works is the exit door because everybody is inside." —Robert Armstrong [14:46]

---

2. U.S. Labor Market & Jobs Report

[18:15–27:56]
Participants: Ed Elson & Catherine Ann Edwards

September Jobs Report—Mixed Signals

• U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs (stronger than expected), but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest in four years.
• The labor market is “cooling” but not crashing—akin to cars slowing at different rates at a red light.
• Quote:

  "The labor market is cooling, it's slowing down... We're just seeing it cool kind of at different paces according to different metrics." —Catherine Ann Edwards [19:38]

Is 4.4% Unemployment Cause for Alarm?

• Historically, 4.4% is still low, but context matters: this number is rising, not falling, and signals a softening relative to the very tight labor market of 2022 and 2023.
• Prior downturns (pandemic, financial crisis) caused sharp spikes; today’s trend is a slow, steady rise—potentially masking growing trouble.
• Quote:

  “The unemployment rate has been rising for three months... 1980 doesn't matter to what's going on in the economy right now.” —Catherine Ann Edwards [21:50]

Manufacturing Weakness

• Ongoing losses in manufacturing jobs (third straight monthly decline) contrast sharply with the administration’s promises.
• Tariffs alone are not enough to boost the sector; uncertainty and higher input costs are cited as barriers to growth and hiring.
• Quote:

  "Tariffs are not an industrial policy. If you want to have revitalized manufacturing in the United States, you can't just put up a poster board in the Rose Garden and then clap yourself on the back and say, I did it." —Catherine Ann Edwards [23:17]

Data Gaps & Fed Policy

• Due to a government shutdown, several key pieces of economic data (October jobs, CPI, GDP) are missing or delayed, clouding the upcoming Fed rate decision.
• Catherine argues this is a deliberate political choice, not an act of God.
• Quote:

  "Our hands are not tied. The federal government could have had emergency operations include data collection at this time. ...they chose not to." —Catherine Ann Edwards [25:55] “I would be surprised if [the Fed] actually moved rates with this much data uncertainty.” —Catherine Ann Edwards [26:42]

• Particularly concerning is that a larger share of unemployment is due to permanent layoffs, not temporary factors.

---

3. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Post-Mortem

[28:08–30:45]
Host Monologue: Ed Elson

Summary & Analysis

• DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) is officially disbanded, ending months of headline-grabbing yet ultimately unproductive attempts at fiscal restraint.
• Ed highlights how the cuts produced immediate savings but led to greater long-term losses by undermining federal agency function, reducing productivity, and ultimately adding to the deficit.
• Criticizes the administration’s penchant for highly-publicized but ineffectual gestures.
• Quote:

  "It was an inconsequential agency that got nothing done. No one will recognize the name Doge... But for those of us who care about America... Doge must be remembered. Because it's movements like Doge that slowly but surely ruin America." —Ed Elson [30:00–31:00]

---

4. Notable, Lighthearted Close

[34:35–36:00]
Participants: Ed Elson & Robert Armstrong

• Robert Armstrong recounts the legend of D.B. Cooper, as an almost patron saint of those who “try to get away with it”—prompting a playful exchange about the “terrible moral” of the story.
• Quote:

  “D.B. Cooper is like the patron saint of people who are trying to get away with it.” —Robert Armstrong [35:32]
  “The worst fable of all time.” —Ed Elson [35:58]

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "The volatility is telling you something here... strong fear is meeting with strong greed." —Robert Armstrong [03:35]
• "Over the short term... valuation is not predictive information." —Robert Armstrong [05:40]
• "If the government spends money, history shows us over the short term, that's good for the stock market." —Ed Elson [07:54]
• "Tariffs are not an industrial policy." —Catherine Ann Edwards [23:17]
• "I would be surprised if [the Fed] actually moved rates with this much data uncertainty." —Catherine Ann Edwards [26:42]
• "Doge is waste in its purest form... a blueprint for how not to run government." —Ed Elson [30:00–31:00]
• "D.B. Cooper... is like the patron saint of people who are trying to get away with it." —Robert Armstrong [35:32]

---

Key Segment Timestamps

• Market Volatility & Fear vs. Greed: [03:03–08:58]
• Bull/Bear Case for 2026: [08:59–11:44]
• Bitcoin as a Risk Asset: [12:02–13:00]
• What to Watch in Equities: [13:53–14:55]
• September Jobs Report Analysis: [18:15–22:41]
• Manufacturing Weakness & Tariffs: [22:41–24:50]
• Fed Policy & Data Gaps: [24:50–27:56]
• DOGE Recap & Critique: [28:08–30:45]
• D.B. Cooper Anecdote: [34:35–36:00]

---

Takeaways

• Recent sharp rallies mask deep market uncertainty, with both bullish and bearish narratives rooted in legitimate concerns.
• Policy stimulus, especially deficit spending, may keep markets buoyant in the run-up to the U.S. midterms, but inflation is the key risk.
• The labor market is cooling in a slow, incremental way, with particular weakness in manufacturing; headline jobs data is less telling amid missing context and government data gaps.
• Politics and publicity stunts (like DOGE) may grab headlines but risk long-term harm through inefficiency and performative governance.
• Investors and observers should focus on economic fundamentals, the risk of over-saturated markets, and the broader implications of political and fiscal maneuvering.

---

Transcript

[Podcast Host - Sponsor Announcer]

Support for today's show comes from darktrace. Darktrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend. Beyond darktrace is AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks and more. With the power to see across your entire attack surface, Cyber defenders, including IT decision makers, CISOs and cyber security professionals, now have the ability to stop zero days before day zero. The world needs defenders. Defenders need Darktrace. Visit darktrace.com defenders for more information. Support for the show comes from blueair Purifier. In markets and in life, the fundamentals matter and taking care of your health is a big one. The Blue Signature Air Purifier by blueair is the most powerful yet compact air purifier you can get. It quietly removes pollutants that affect focus, sleep and longevity. Blueair is one of the most awarded air care brands in the US and UK. Use promo code PRPG25 to save [e-mail].

[Sponsor Announcer - Adobe Acrobat]

Adobe Acrobat Studio so brand new. Show me all the things PDFs can do. Do your work with ease and speed. PDF Spaces is all you need. Do hours of research in an instant with key insights from an AI assistant. Pick a template with a click. Now your prezo looks super slick. Close that deal. Yeah, you won. Do that, doing that, did that, done. Now you now you can do that. Do that with Acrobat. Now you can do that. Do that with the all new Acrobat. It's time to do your best work with the all new Adobe acrobat studio.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Today's number 75. That's how many minutes it takes for a banana to produce 1. Positron. We have no idea what a positron actually is, but there's something about a banana joke that we find appealing. Money Market Madness if money is evil, then that building is hell.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

The show goes on.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Sell. Sell.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Welcome to Fructum Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is November 25th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rallied on optimism for a rate cut in December. The odds of a cut currently stand above 80%. Meanwhile, the yield on 10 year treasuries declined, the price of gold rose and finally bitcoin clawed back from its recent lows near $80,000. Okay, what else is happening? Tech led a second day of rebounds Monday after a week of whiplash in the markets ahead of Nvidia's earnings. Last week, the S and P was on track for its worst November since 2008. Then Nvidia's earnings came out. It calmed nerves for a moment. The entire market was lifted. The next day, however, the stock gave up all of its gains and the rest of the market followed. And then on Friday and yesterday, stocks rallied and the NASDAQ closed up nearly 3% for its best day since May. So we went down, then up, then down, then up again. A lot of mixed signals coming from the market. So to help us make sense of all of this, we're speaking with Robert Armstrong, US Commentator for the Financial Times, author of the Unhedged newsletter and fan favorite on profit markets. Rob, thank you for joining us.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Always fun to talk with you.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

So we want to get your reactions to just the up, down, up, down whipsawing that we keep seeing in the markets. Obviously, uh, things look bad and then Nvidia reports earnings and then things look good, and then the next day things look bad and now apparently things are good again. What is going on? How do we make sense of this?

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Well, these are, these are the kinds of days, as several of my readers have pointed out, that are designed to make market commentators like me look stupid. You know, it's like, you know, and the short, you know, you don't want to spend too much of your energy predicting or analyzing short term changes in the market. But I do think the volatility is telling you something here, which is there is. It's a market in conflict with itself where strong fear is meeting with strong greed. You know, the market is always a contest between those two emotions. But I feel like right now both emotions are very strong. In other words, there is a strong sense, and you get this when you talk to people too, that if you're not in the market right now, you're missing out on a huge opportunity. And, you know, there may be some truth to that. And we know that the market is expensive and there are some scary things going on we don't quite understand. So it's like it's the push and pull between two opposing strong emotions, I think is the metaphor that probably captures it best.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

What do you make of those two arguments? Both are pretty compelling to me and that's probably why we're seeing such huge amounts of volatility. We had Aspartamen, who I know you wrote about in your newsletter, who is very bearish. But then at the same time, AI is transformative. Nvidia had these great earnings. I have my gripes with that earnings report, but there's a lot of reason to be Bullish as well. I mean, where do you land?

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Okay, so one thing that I've been writing about lately that is really important to keep in mind, you know, when people are making bearish talk recently, including the great Demoderin, he's talking about extremely peaky valuations that for every dollar of present earnings you're paying for the market or even near term earnings, you're paying a lot of money for each dollar of earnings.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Right.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

That's what we mean when we say markets are expensive. And the important thing for investor to keep in mind is that over the short term, like a year or two or three years, that is not predictive information. Like I've put scatter charts in my newsletter, right. Where you have the PE ratio on one axis and the price return on the other axis and it's just dots all over the place over one year. It's only after 5, 7, 10 years that the valuation, you know, as they, you know, some people say investing is a game, you win or lose on the first tee.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

In other words, if you, if you tee off from a place where it's really expensive, you've kind of lost the game already. That is true. But it's true over 10 years, not over one. So what, what's going to happen next year? Valuation gives us no information. So that's one thing to keep in mind. If you're thinking as a long term investor, maybe it is a good time to shade back. You know, like as Aswath said, a little more cash, maybe diversify a little more, be a little more careful. But it doesn't mean we're not going to have an absolutely ripping year in stock markets over the next 12 months.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yep.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

So that's point number one. Point number two is I think the environment politically and you and I, I don't know if we're going to agree or disagree here, but I think as a starting point, the environment politically is probably risk friendly for the very unfair but nonetheless possibly true reason that this administration is going to pull every lever they can get their hands on until the midterms. Because I was talking to, you know, a politics guy about this today. You know, the, the betting is they lose the House just as a starting proposition, they lose the Senate too. Trump just is sitting in a room alone for the next two years.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

So whatever it takes in terms of a stimulus package, if things start to go sideways, either in markets or in economy, we're going to see some stuff from this administration. Maybe it'll be a mistake, maybe it's Stimulus checks, maybe it's inflationary, whatever, they're going to give it all a try.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

And I think the important point there, and this was part of the bull case that you laid out for 2026. You called it fiscal largess, interventionist White House. The point being, if the government spends money, history shows us over the short term, that's good for the stock market.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Sure is absolutely good if they spend deficit money. In other words, if they borrow to spend, that's just cramming money into, because if they tax just as much, they're pulling the economy out. So the crucial thing is it's deficit spending. Right. And I think, I mean, we know already that some of that's coming. It was also pointed out me today that the tax relief that is for companies and for households that is in the one big beautiful bill, is retrospective to this year, which means it's going to show up in people's refund checks in March and April. That's going to be money into the economy. Now, I probably share the fears you've expressed on this show, that a lot of the action in the market in particular rotates around a few themes and a few stocks. I think that's probably a legitimate worry.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Is that how you guys are feeling?

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah, I think that is our general concern is that we're going to see the demand that seems to be artificially inflated. It will run out at some point. It sounds like what you're describing is that the government is going to have the ability and the incentive to keep kicking the can down the road, in which case maybe 2026 things will be good, continues to rip. But you did also lay out your bear case for 2026 where you bring out some of these issues. You got inflation, you've got Nvidia stock cracks, margin contraction, tanko, which was interesting. Just take us through the bear case.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Okay, so the bear case is one, it becomes very politically hard for the president and his allies in Congress to do a lot of fiscal fiddling around and a lot harder for the central bank to do monetary fiddling around if inflation comes back. I think inflation is the economic variable that I am always wrong about, and I'm even wronger than most people, which is very wrong. I'm not going to sit here and tell you I can predict inflation. What I can tell you is the escape hatch of monetary and fiscal looseness for the market closes. If we have inflation run past, say, four, then it becomes just. You're going to pump more money into the economy when we have 4% inflation. You're not going to get away with it. Then the wheels really come off. Nvidia, look, company's worth $4.5 trillion. Right. Like that's a mighty big boat if it hits an iceberg, you know, and I, I, you know, Tanko, the other one I mentioned, you know, I think we've done, we've been lucky as people, as investors, that the President chickens out, you know, in the taco line. Yes. Which will be written on my gravestone whether I like it or not.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes. For those who are not aware, Robert Armstrong created the term taco.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Yeah. For Trump. Always chickens out.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

That's right. And I think you filed for a patent as well.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Right. Well, you know, I asked about that, but you can't, as it turns out, you can't copyright a short phrase anyway. Very frustrating.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

So anyway, Tanko just means like there's always the worry that Armstrong is wrong about Trump. He's really a true believer and he stops chickening out.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Right.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

In other words, if he starts, if he like gets into a real ideologically driven trade war with China rather than a posturing war, I don't like that much.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Right. So that, that's the stuff I'm worried about. I mean, it's really hard to, to say much of interest about what the stock market is going to do over a one year period, but these are the things, if I had to pick the things that could go right or wrong, these are the things that I would pick.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes. The other thing that's been really interesting watching over the past week has been what's happening to bitcoin, which is just barreling down every day. What do you make of that? What does that say about sentiment? I mean, we're really just trying to assess vibes here. That's all we can do right now. What does that say about the vibes?

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Ed, there is an age line at which point once you pass it, it becomes impossible for you to say something interesting about bitcoin. And I'm past that age. You are below that age. So I should be asking you what you think about this bitcoin thing. Obviously, I mean, I can make the obvious point only, which is that it behaves like a highly speculative asset. All this stuff about how it's digital gold or it's a store of value or whatever. It just looks like it trades like NASDAQ after 10 drinks, basically. Exactly. You know, I don't know what, I mean, I don't understand the thing well enough to say more about it than that.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah. So just before we let you go here, is there anything that you are looking at right now that you think that we should be paying more attention to? I mean, I think it's very interesting what you're saying about inflation there. That scenario that you bring up where our backstop is federal spending or deficit spending from the government, which is only going to be even remotely acceptable if we don't have runaway inflation that gets up over 4%. It doesn't seem to indicate right now that we're not headed for that. We've been going up and up and up 2.3 to 2.5. Now we're up to 3.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

I think the market's okay with 3. I think we have evidence before us that the market is okay with three, but it's the direction of change and you get up towards 4 and the politics of it are going to change a lot.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

And I think that is, I mean, what should we be watching? I mean, I think the, the thing I always watch is when companies do well and the stocks don't respond that much, as was the case with Nvidia. That tells you something. And I'm going to be watching for that pattern we saw with Nvidia. Does it recur in the quarters to come? In other words, is absolutely everything priced in everywhere, where companies are beating or meeting targets or they're growing at the rate they've been growing and the market just doesn't care? And once that happens, it's like everybody. What that tells me when that's the general pattern is that everybody who can be in the market is in the market.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

And the only door that works is the exit door because everybody is inside. Right. So that's, that's what I'll be watching.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

All right. Robert Armstrong, commentator for the Financial Times, author of the Unhedged Newsletter. I recommend it all the time. I recommend it again today. Really great read, Robert. Really appreciate it. Thank you.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Anytime, Ed.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

After the break, a look at the latest jobs report. If you're enjoying the show, give Property Markets a follow.

[Podcast Host - Sponsor Announcer]

Support for the show comes from public.com you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some high conviction picks, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. By the way, be very careful with options and never ride an option unless you have a lot of money because there's unlimited downside. Anyways, the point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously on public. You can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, it's all there plus an industry leading 3.6% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.comproPG and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.comproPG paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures.

[Sponsor Announcer - Adobe Acrobat]

Adobe Acrobat Studio so brand new. Show me all the things PDFs can do. Do your work with ease and speed. PDF Spaces is all you need. Do hours of research in an instant with key insights from AI Assistant. Pick a template with a click now your prezo looks super slick. Close that deal. Yeah, you won. Do that, doing that, did that, done. Now you can do that. Do that with Acrobat. Now you can do that. Do that with the all new Acrobat. It's time to do your best work with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio.

[Sponsor Announcer - Strawberry Me]

Let's be honest. Are you happy with your job? Like really happy? The unfortunate fact is that a huge number of people can't say yes to that. Far too many of us are stuck in a job we've outgrown, or one we never wanted in the first place. But still we stick it out and we give reasons like what if the next move is even worse? I've already put years into this place and maybe the most common one Isn't everyone kind of miserable at work? But there's a difference between reasons for staying and excuses for not leaving. It's time to get unstuck. It's time for Strawberry Me. They match you with a certified career coach who helps you go from where you are to where you actually want to be. Your coach helps you get clear on your goals, create a plan, build your confidence and keeps you accountable along the way. So don't leave your career to chance. Take action and own your future. With a professional coach in your corner, go to Strawberry Me Unstuck to claim a special offer. That's Strawberry Me Unstuck.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

We're back with property markets. Well, it's almost December, so naturally we have just received the September jobs report and it was quite mixed. Employers added 119,000 jobs, which was stronger than expected, but the unemployment rate went up to 4.4% and that is the highest rate we have seen in four years. So some people are focusing on the unemployment rate, others are focusing on the job growth number, including the White House, which said, quote, this strong report is more proof that President Trump's pro growth America first agenda is already making great progress. That is certainly up for debate. So here for a full review of this jobs report and what it means for our economy, we are speaking with Catherine Ann Edwards, labor economist and host of the Optimist Economy podcast. Katherine, welcome back to property markets.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Thank you.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

And we should also say that you are sort of coming out of maternity leave. Coming out of. You called it semi retirement. So thank you for that as well. We really appreciate it. We need your insight.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Happy to be here.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

So this jobs report, we added 119,000 jobs, which was good. But then we also saw that the unemployment rate went up to 4.4%. That's the highest unemployment rate we've seen in four years. Give us your reactions. Give us the breakdown. Was this good, bad, or something else?

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Good, bad, or ugly? I think the way that I've tried to make sense of it is the labor market is cooling, it's slowing down. And every month we're going to make maybe two steps forward, one step back towards that cooling. So some months we add a lot of jobs, but then we'll see a heavy revision. Some months the unemployment rate stays stable. Other months like this one we see saw it jump to 4.4. You know, it's, it's all kind of telling us the same thing. That, which is that we don't have a strong labor market right now. It's not robust, it's not expanding, it's not hot. We're just seeing it cool kind of at different paces according to different metrics. Maybe another way to think of it would be, you know, if you're driving a car like the light's red, the cars are slowing down next to you at different rates, but we're all going to come to a stop. And it's not as if there's a green light ahead and everyone's just got their foot on the gas. So it's, it's just at what rate things slow down and not if they're getting better.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

That 4.4% number, which, I mean, when you look at it on a chart and you see it's this very, very high point compared to back in 2021, it was the last time it was that high. Is that significant? You think that it's gone up, that it's the highest We've seen in four years, at least. When I look at a chart and the lines as high as it is, it looks concerning to me.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Well, the pushback would be that, historically speaking, 4.4 is pretty low and that we should. There's a little bit of a. Shouldn't you be grateful for a 4.4%? You know, back in my day, we lived at 5. Right. There's this, you know, historical comparison of where the US Unemployment rate has lived over various points in history versus the kind of much more contemporary context of where we have been in the last five years. It's worth noting that when the unemployment rate was this high In October of 2021, it was falling. It was fall dramatically in each month as we were coming out of the pandemic. So think of this as around the fall after hot vax summer, when we all got our vaccines in 2021, this was the fall when, like everything was reopening and stuff was coming back online. That's where we are in the unemployment rate now. And in the period since the unemployment rate fell to a record low in the spring of 2023, it rose for about a year afterward. It's been stable for about a year, and now it's starting to increase steadily again in the last three months have seen an uptick. Now, part of me has wondered if because of the nature of the last two recessions, one being the pandemic and one being the financial crisis and associated recession, we're not used to a recession coming from a slow uptick in unemployment. We're used to the car crash, you know, the economy falling off of a cliff. But that's not how the US Typically enters a downturn. It just slowly marches its way there. So, yes, you could write off 4.4% as being historically low, but 1980 doesn't matter to what's going on in the economy right now. The unemployment rate has been rising for three months.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah, a lot of mixed signals in there. One thing that also stood out to me was the numbers in the manufacturing data. 6,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. That's the third straight month of falling employment in manufacturing or rising unemployment, which is just ironic because this administration was going to bring back manufacturing. And I'm sorry to point it out, but that was the whole story that we were told. That was the pitch. And the opposite is happening. Manufacturing is getting battered. It seems your reactions.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Tariffs are not an industrial policy. If you want to have revitalized manufacturing in the United States, you can't just put up a poster Board in the Rose Garden and then clap yourself on the back and say, I did it. It's, you know, manufacturing in the 21st century economy, a global economy in which you have integrated supply trains, in which, you know, as many of things we produce inside the United States are made with parts that are imported from outside the United States. It doesn't, you know, it's not as easy as that. You, you have to have very thoughtful, very deliberate and very well designed industrial policy to revitalize manufacturing in the United States. And you've got to do it coordinated across workers, across employers, across training schools for making those workers qualified for the job. And none of that happens when you just institute a tariff. And if you look through surveys of manufacturers, Texas has one, there's a national one. They'll tell you, here's what's going on in my business, here's what's going on in my company. And you've heard it since that April 1st Liberation Day. They are plagued with uncertainty and rising input costs. And they can't expand and hire aggressively when they don't know what their bottom line will look like month to month. And some manufacturers will make out in this situation. You are going to have some manufacturers, some parts of the manufacturing base that are doing very well right now, and you'll have a lot that are outright suffering and then the rest that are kind of muddying their way through a lot of uncertainty. And two of those scenarios do not lead to hiring.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yeah, the final piece that, I mean, a lot of investors like seeing these jobs numbers because it basically tells us what we'll see with the Fed's decision and the interest rate cut. Will we get a cut? Will we not get one? It appears we probably will. But we're also missing a ton of data. Bls they canceled the October jobs report, also the October CPI report, the Consumer Price Index, which will tell us about inflation. We're not going to get the November CPI report until the Fed has already met. We also just learned that we're not getting the first estimate of GDP data. I mean, this government shutdown has basically meant that we're getting a giant shutdown in terms of lots of data, which means that the interest rate decision for the Fed, which investors are very interested in because it moves markets in a big way, it's not very clear what's going to happen there. I just want to get your reactions. What do you think is going to happen in terms of interest rates and what do you think of the fact that we basically are operating with no.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Data Right now, it's a deliberate choice. Our hands are not tied. The federal government could have had emergency operations include data collection at this time. They could have rescheduled data collection. They could have prioritized it and said this needs to come out before the Federal Reserve meets. They could have done all of those things and they chose not to. So we are not here because of some random act that has forced us into this position. We have chosen this path from the federal government and this is where they want us to be. I think the Fed's decision, I would be surprised if they actually moved rates with this much data uncertainty. I know that there are a lot of private data sources that have come up, but especially for the unemployment rate, the gold standard is the BLS and nothing will compare. Especially for those really small numbers. Like what I thought was the most concerning part of the 4.4% unemployment rate this past month. Data release back in September was how much of it is comprised of the permanent layoff. It's not new people coming to the labor market, it's not people coming back to the labor market or people finishing up a temporary job. A quarter of the unemployed were laid off, meaning that they lost their job due to business conditions or their firm closed due to business conditions. That's a very high share for a non recession time period. You will not have a private sector unemployment manufacturer give you anything like that type of detail. That's something only the BLS can provide. But it's so important for understanding where our economy is. The administration has decided that they are not going to give us the data we need. I think there's a chance the Fed will react, but I would put my money on them not doing anything. Because without knowing how it'll impact the economy, it's risky to move in either direction. So they'll hold still. This Fed in particular has shown that they like to err on the side of not moving too quickly. That's been used to condemn them, that's been used to praise them. But if that is their mode of behavior, I would be surprised if they did something in December.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Katherine Ann Edwards, host of the Optimist Economy podcast. Catherine, really appreciate your time. Thank you.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Thank you so much. And y' all have a good Thanksgiving.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

It's official. The Department of Government Efficiency is no more. The agency has reportedly disbanded eight months short of its original mandate. Scott Cooper, the Office of Personnel Management's director, confirmed this news. He said after being asked about Doge, quote, that doesn't exist. All told, Doge lasted about 10 months. According to their website, the department terminated roughly 13,000 contracts, 16,000 grants, and 300 leases. Although these numbers have have fluctuated a lot in the past few months. All in all, the agency estimates its efforts save the American taxpayer about $200 billion. However, we should also note that Doge has also cost the US quite a bit as well. There's the estimated $10 billion we lost in productivity because of cuts at the nih and the NSF. There's the $135 billion that we lost because the government fired a bunch of workers by mistake, and now they're gonna have to rehire them. And then there's the $500 billion in tax revenue that we lost because of cuts to the irs. In sum, Doge will end up actually being a net loss. Yes, we pinched a few billions here and there, but ultimately we bled a few more billions over the long run. And when we look back, I think we will all agree that this was a giant waste of money. But that's only when we measure Doge by the dollars that went into it. It says nothing of the time and the energy and the attention that was wasted on Doge. Starting from that original tweet that established Doge and got hundreds of millions of views and was retweeted hundreds of thousands of times. Or even the thousands of memes about Doge that were strewn across every social media platform by Elon and by the President himself. And all of the general chaos both online and in the real world that was fomented because of this movement, which really disguised itself as some form of fiscal responsibility, but was in reality all about controversy and all about sticking it to this woke establishment. Few political movements in history have gotten more attention and had less impact than Doge. It sucked up all the energy in the room for many, many months, and yet here we are. It got us nowhere. And remember what Elon said about Doge? He said that Doge was going to save us $2 trillion. That is what he told us. How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted $6.5 trillion Harris Biden budget?

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Well, I think we can do at least 2 trillion. Yeah.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Yes, at least 2 trillion. That's what he said. In just a few months, instead of that, we have actually added roughly $2 trillion to our national debt. And that doesn't even include the big beautiful bill, which is going to add another $4 trillion to our national debt. So if we're evaluating his performance here, Elon's performance, I think it is fair to Say that Elon Musk was the least effective political leader in modern. Not only did he not accomplish his goal, he actually achieved the opposite. He increased our debt by the amount that he said he was going to cut, he increased government waste, and he pissed off millions of people on both sides while he did it. But now it's over. Doge is dead. That's the end of it. And it's a reminder of a larger flaw with this administration, and that is like Doge, they are almost always all talk and no action. Whether it's these deals with nations that never actually materialize, or government agencies that make a huge fuss and then quietly shut down. They're really good at making headlines that go viral and really bad at getting any of it done. And the result is actually worse, weirdly, than doing nothing. Because at least if you do nothing, then the people, we can just kind of go about our lives and find other things to worry about. But when you actively create drama, when you actively sow division, when you cause unrest through these performative acts of cruelty, all while getting nothing done, well, that is something different entirely. That's something much worse. And Doge was a great example of this. Now, to be clear, when history is written, when it's all said and done, DOGE will be completely forgotten. It was an inconsequential agency that got nothing done. No one will recognize the name Doge. No one will know what it was. No one will remember it. But I will remember it. And I hope you do, too. Because it's movements like Doge that slowly but surely ruin America. It's movements like Doge that we need to prevent. Movements that are void of substance, that are rooted in grievance, that are driven by some weird online need for attention, and that, most importantly, do nothing for anyone. Doge is what it means to be inefficient. Doge is waste in its purest form. It is a blueprint for how not to run government. It might have lived a ceremonious life. It might have gotten a lot of attention in its day, but as with all bad leaders, it died an unceremonious death. It was quietly buried away in the annals of history, and it will be forgotten. But for those of us who care about America, who care about government, who care about the systems that run our government, for those people, let's be clear, Doge must be remembered. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristin o', Donoghue, and Mia Silverio. And our technical director is Drew Burrows. Thank you for listening to Profg Markets from Profg Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Today is DB Cooper Day, which is one of my favorite days of the year. So, like, in 19, I think it's like 1973, this guy who was not named D.B. cooper, but that's his name he put on the passenger list when he signed on, kidnapped a plane in Seattle, like, hijacked this plane, and he said, you know, we're going to land in. I think it was Spokane, and you're going to give me a million dollars because I have a bomb. And there. And he had something that looked like a bomb, which later turned out not to be a bomb. And so they landed in Spokane or whatever. You can look all this up. I'm getting some of the details wrong. And they give him the million dollars, and he's like, okay, take the plane off again. And they're flying over the forest over there in Oregon. And what he has in his other bag is a parachute. And he takes his million dollars, puts on his parachute, and jumps out of the plane into the night on the 24th of November, 1974, or whatever. Never heard of again.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Wow.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

So D.B. cooper, as his name might be, is like the patron saint of people who are trying to get away with it.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

It.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

You know what I mean? And today is D.B. cooper Day. Anyway, there's, like, songs about D.B. cooper and, you know, I love it.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Because the takeaway is so bad.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Yeah.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Terrible moral.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Terrible moral.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

The worst fable of all time.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Yeah.

[Sponsor Announcer - Adobe Acrobat]

Adobe Acrobat Studio. So brand new. Show me all the things PDFs can do. Do your work with ease and speed. PDF Spaces is all you need. Do hours of research in an instant with key insights from an AI assistant. Pick a template with a click. Now your preo looks super slick. Close that deal.

[Catherine Ann Edwards - Labor Economist]

Yeah.

[Sponsor Announcer - Adobe Acrobat]

You won. Do that, doing that, did that, done. Now you can do that, do that with Acrobat. Now you can do that, do that with the allnew Acrobat. It's time to do your best work with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

What do walking 10,000 steps every day, eating five servings of fruits and veggies.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

And getting eight hours of sleep have in common?

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

They're all healthy choices. But do all healthier choices really pay off? With prescription plans from CVS Caremark, they do their plan designs give your members more choice, which gives your members more.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Ways to get on, stay on, and manage their meds.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

And that helps your business control your.

[Ed Elson - Host of Property Markets]

Costs because healthier members are better for business.

[Robert Armstrong - Financial Times Commentator]

Go to CMK Co Access to learn more about helping your members stay adherent. That's CMK Co Access.

[Sponsor Announcer - Adobe Acrobat]

Support for this show comes from Neiman Marcus. This holiday season, Neiman Marcus is your home for the most exceptional gifts. From the ultimate stocking stuffers to statement bags made for celebration to their legendary fantasy gifts that surpass every expectation, Neiman Marcus has something extraordinary for everyone. And with style advisors to guide you, finding the perfect gift at every price point is effortless. So head to Neiman Marcus for a truly unforgettable holiday.