Prof G Markets: "Nvidia’s Blowout Can’t Calm AI Anxiety"
February 26, 2026 | Vox Media Podcast Network
Hosts: Ed Elson
Guests: Gil Luria (DA Davidson), Ian Bremmer (Eurasia Group)
Episode Overview
This episode of Prof G Markets centers on two major themes:
- The remarkable earnings report by Nvidia and its implications for the AI and tech sectors, particularly in the face of ongoing investor anxieties about both an "AI bubble" and the future of legacy software companies.
- Reactions and analysis of President Trump’s State of the Union address, with particular emphasis on economic claims, foreign policy, and shifts in political strategy ahead of the midterms.
Expert insights are provided by Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, and Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group.
Key Market Discussion: Nvidia’s Earnings & AI Anxiety (04:08–15:18)
Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings
- Nvidia reported another exceptional quarter, surpassing expectations in both earnings and revenue: Data center revenue, a key metric, rose 75% YoY.
- Unusually, Nvidia provided visibility for sequential growth for the remainder of the year, instilling investor confidence.
“Not only is it...unbelievable, the numbers are just getting staggering, especially for a company that's so profitable to be able to grow at these rates continuously. But beyond that, they just said they're going to grow sequentially for the rest of the year.” — Gil Luria (04:08)
The Dichotomy of AI Anxiety
- Two polar-opposite anxieties dominate the market:
- Overbuilding Fear: Concern that the rapid growth in data centers is unsustainable, risking a bubble that could pop and hurt the broader economy.
- Disruption Fear: Worry that AI is too powerful, will upend industries overnight, and decimate the value of software firms.
- Luria urges a balanced view, arguing both are extremes and reality is less dramatic:
“There's two different types of anxiety and they're actually the polar opposite...Somewhere between software engineers that are very much impacted by AI and nurses that are probably not going to be impacted by AI in decades, we have all the other professions.” — Gil Luria (05:27)
Quotes & Memorable Moments
- "These types of essays are science fiction. They are doomer porn. We can put them aside and just focus on what's in front of us." — Gil Luria (07:40)
- Analogy to Professions: Not every job is equally threatened. The transition will be gradual, benefiting productivity and wages.
Salesforce as AI Bellwether (08:26–10:37)
- Salesforce earnings painted a contrasting picture: Strong growth (revenue up 12%), but stock fell due to cautious guidance and slowing business—not AI disruption per se.
- Gil Luria argues: The AI story isn't killing Salesforce, it's competition and business model stagnation.
“The least of Salesforce's issue is AI...They're losing share to HubSpot and Monday and ServiceNow and Braze and Klaviyo and a whole cottage industry...” – Gil Luria (09:28)
Wall Street Sentiment & Market Overreaction (11:30–15:18)
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Market jitters stem less from specific AI fears and more from cumulative macro (policy, geopolitics) unease.
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Both extremes (AI overbuilding or AI-led collapse) are unlikely:
“I'm just saying the world rebuilding data centers is a 10% outcome. The AI is going to run everything over in the next two years is a 10% outcome, and there's an 80% outcome that neither of those terrible things is going to happen.” — Gil Luria (13:25)
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Real Opportunities: Stock valuations now reflect these anxieties, providing possible bargains in software and hardware with strong fundamentals.
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Notable Comparison: Nvidia’s valuation (25x earnings) versus AMD/Broadcom (32x), and software companies returning to cash flow metrics, offering rare investment opportunities.
State of the Union: Analysis and Insights (17:26–29:56)
Trump’s Largest-Ever Address—Style & Substance (18:39–23:36)
- President Trump’s State of the Union was unusually long (107–108 minutes), described as repetitive with few substantive new policies.
- Notable exceptions:
- High-profile release of a Venezuelan opposition figure—considered a genuine, notable accomplishment.
- Celebration of the US women's hockey team’s Olympic gold—cheered as a positive, unifying moment.
- Economic messaging was largely inaccurate—multiple claims about economic strength (e.g., inflation "plummeting") contradicted by current data.
Quote:
“He cannot will [the economy] so. This is Prof. G. Markets; you know that the average American is not happy about where the economy is. Trump is underwater on that.” — Ian Bremmer (21:45)
Deliberate Omissions & Policy Evasions
- Trump avoided talking about:
- Epstein scandal (“He didn’t mention Epstein, even though it’s been what we’ve been talking about for weeks now.” — Ian Bremmer, 21:47)
- Tariffs, despite the Supreme Court striking down his signature trade initiative.
- Key foreign relationships (Canada, China) and controversial internal policies (ICE).
Legal Defeats and Tariffs—Implications (24:04–27:10)
- Supreme Court’s rejection of global tariffs was historic. Even Trump appointees sided against him.
- This limits presidential authority, reassures markets, and confirms the independence of US judiciary.
“Turns out that the American president is not Xi Jinping, he's not Vladimir Putin ... there's an independent judiciary.” — Ian Bremmer (25:08)
- Market reaction was muted; the outcome was anticipated and doesn’t spell systemic risk.
Foreign Policy Hype vs. Substance (27:10–29:44)
- Trump’s claim of 'ending eight wars' is exaggerated but not wholly unfounded—some diplomatic successes (India-Pakistan ceasefire, Israel-Gaza peace plan), but failures and overstatements abound.
- More egregious inaccuracies were seen in Trump’s economic claims than his foreign policy assertions.
Host’s Closing Review & Takeaways (29:56–End)
What Trump Said—and Didn’t Say
- Main topics championed:
- Child investment “Trump accounts” (expanded stock market participation)
- Health care, drug prices, energy solutions connected to data center expansion.
- Racist and misleading elements remained (e.g., describing Somalians as “pirates,” inflation/foreign investment claims).
- Biggest surprises were in what was omitted:
- No mention of prominent trade and immigration issues (tariffs, ICE).
- Silent on relationships with Canada and China, and on the Epstein saga.
- Interpretation:
“Those emissions were really a tell. Specifically, I think he and his team know that he is actually losing on those issues ... so instead of trying to fight these issues on the biggest stage of all, they took ... the smarter route, and ... chose to ignore them entirely.” — Ed Elson (30:40)
Political Implications
- Growing awareness within the Trump camp of political vulnerability:
- Low approval ratings; negative economic perceptions dominate public opinion.
- The administration appears to be retreating from contesting its weakest policy fronts.
Useful Timestamps
- Nvidia Earnings & AI Anxiety: 04:08–15:18
- Trump State of the Union discussion with Ian Bremmer: 18:38–29:44
- Host's final reflections and takeaways: 29:56–End
Notable Quotes
- “AI is incredibly valuable...a very powerful technology that can drive productivity growth, which is a good thing.” — Gil Luria (07:05)
- “This seems to me an overreaction. This seems to me highly emotional and not nearly grounded in the reality that we're seeing on the ground ...” — Ed Elson (12:39)
- “There is an 80% outcome that neither of those terrible things is going to happen.” — Gil Luria (13:27)
- “He was lying a lot more dramatically on the economy than he was on foreign policy, in my view.” — Ian Bremmer (29:08)
Overall Tone & Style
The discussion combined Prof G Markets’ characteristic sharp, data-driven market analysis with candid, often irreverent commentary about personalities, policy, and market psychology. Both guests and hosts maintained an engaging, sometimes wry, forthright style, breaking down both the substance and the spectacle of tech sector news and political theatre.
This summary covers all key discussions, allowing non-listeners to grasp the main topics, insights, and the flow of conversation in this episode.