Oil Falls on Israel-Iran De-Escalation, Tesla Rolls Out the Robotaxi, & Trump Media’s Buyback Grift

Summary

Prof G Markets Podcast Summary: "Oil Falls on Israel-Iran De-Escalation, Tesla Rolls Out the Robotaxi, & Trump Media’s Buyback Grift"

Release Date: June 24, 2025

Hosts:

• Ed Elson
• Scott Galloway
• Claire

---

1. Market Overview

[01:50] Ed Elson:
Ed begins the episode by recapping the previous day's market activity. He notes that major indices experienced modest gains of around 0.9%, reflecting investor optimism regarding the potential de-escalation in the Middle East. In contrast, crude oil futures plummeted over 7%, a surprising downturn given the geopolitical tensions. Additionally, Ed highlights that the yield on 10-year treasuries decreased following comments from a Federal Reserve governor favoring a rate cut in July. Energy stocks saw an uptick, driven by news of New York constructing its first new nuclear plant in over 15 years. Conversely, shares of Hims and Hers slumped by 35% after Novo Nordisk terminated its partnership with the company.

---

2. Israel-Iran Conflict and Oil Market Response

[01:50] Ed Elson:
Ed delves into the recent developments between the US and Iran. Over the weekend, the US launched strikes on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, inflicting significant damage. President Trump subsequently called for peace. However, Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base in Qatar, with the Iranian foreign minister warning of "everlasting consequences." Israeli leadership has advised its citizens to brace for a prolonged conflict. By Monday evening, a tentative ceasefire was announced, set to take effect at midnight Washington time.

[05:05] Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth):
Rebecca provides insights into the oil market's reaction to the conflict. She explains that initial uncertainty over Iran's potential strikes on energy infrastructure had previously inflated oil prices. However, Iran's actual attacks on a military base, rather than energy facilities, significantly reduced this geopolitical risk premium. As a result, oil prices dropped sharply. Rebecca assesses the probability of Iran targeting energy infrastructure as now below 15%, leading to a stabilization and decline in oil prices despite ongoing tensions.

[08:11] Ed Elson:
Ed emphasizes the market's perspective, noting that despite alarming headlines and social media fears about World War III, the markets remain relatively unshaken. He advises listeners to focus on market signals rather than sensational media narratives, suggesting that the current market stability indicates a lack of concern about an all-out war.

---

3. Tesla's Robotaxi Launch

[09:00] Ed Elson:
Transitioning to technological advancements, Ed announces Tesla's official launch of its Robotaxi service in Austin. The launch, which occurred on schedule alongside Elon Musk's updates on social media platform X, resulted in Tesla's shares rising approximately 9%. This marks the fruition of over a decade of anticipation surrounding Tesla's autonomous taxi ambitions.

[10:15] Claire:
Claire expresses skepticism about the authenticity and scalability of Tesla's Robotaxi launch. She criticizes the limited operational parameters, including the presence of a Tesla employee in each vehicle acting as a safety monitor, restricted operating areas, and dependency on ideal weather conditions. Claire suggests that the launch, while genuine, falls short of demonstrating full autonomous capability and questions whether the stock surge is justified based on the actual service delivered.

[10:34] Ed Elson:
Ed acknowledges the mixed nature of the launch. While Tesla did deploy 35 Model Y cars in Austin with paying passengers, the service is not entirely autonomous due to the presence of safety monitors and operational limitations. He references Paul Miller from Forrester Research, who believes the market responded positively because Tesla met its specific launch targets, despite the service's shortcomings.

[14:57] Scott Galloway:
Scott joins the discussion, expressing his mixed feelings about the Robotaxi service. He points out Tesla's competitive advantage in producing cost-effective vehicles compared to Waymo's expensive lidar-based technology. However, he remains cautious about Tesla's long-term prospects in the autonomous driving market, citing the significant gap between the current limited service and widespread, fully autonomous operations.

[17:36] Claire:
Claire outlines the criteria for the Robotaxi service to be deemed viable, emphasizing the need for independent validation of safety standards. She argues that consumer acceptance hinges on the service meeting robust safety benchmarks and achieving cost-effectiveness compared to competitors like Waymo.

Key Takeaways:

• Operational Constraints: Tesla's Robotaxi service currently requires human safety monitors and operates within limited geographic and weather parameters.
• Market Reaction: Despite limited functionality, the stock market reacted favorably, reflecting optimism about Tesla's progress towards full autonomy.
• Future Prospects: Both hosts express cautious optimism, acknowledging Tesla's advancements while recognizing the substantial challenges ahead for widespread autonomous deployment.

---

4. Trump Media Group's Share Buyback and Grifting Allegations

[23:34] Ed Elson:
Ed introduces the topic of Trump Media Group's recent announcement of a $400 million share buyback program. He labels this move as another instance of alleged grifting by former President Trump, aiming to enrich himself at the expense of shareholders.

[23:34] Ed Elson (Continued):
Ed elaborates on the nature of share buybacks, explaining that they typically benefit shareholders by reducing the stock's supply and potentially increasing its price. However, he points out the incongruity of a company like Trump Media Group, which reported over $400 million in losses the previous year, initiating a buyback. This is juxtaposed against the company's recent $1.5 billion equity raise intended for a pivot to cryptocurrency.

[23:34] Ed Elson:
He theorizes that Trump is leveraging the buyback program to extract funds to address his civil fraud case with the State of New York, predicting that the proceeds will ultimately benefit him personally rather than the company's growth or stability. Ed suggests that this strategy mirrors his earlier prediction of Trump utilizing the company's public status to siphon funds, though he adjusts his prediction from a dividend to a buyback, noting the tax efficiencies involved.

[28:59] Ed Elson:
Ed concludes by asserting that the buyback program is a strategic maneuver for Trump to exploit investor funds, positioning it as a continuation of his grifting practices. He anticipates further developments, including potential dividend announcements and stock sales contingent on the outcome of Trump's legal battles.

Key Takeaways:

• Buyback Justification: Typically reserved for profitable companies, the buyback by Trump Media Group is criticized as illogical given the company's substantial losses.
• Alleged Intentions: Ed suggests the buyback is a vehicle for Trump to personally benefit and resolve his legal financial obligations.
• Predicted Outcomes: Ed forecasts that the buyback will precede further financial maneuvers by Trump Media Group to extract shareholder value for personal use.

---

Conclusion

In this episode of Prof G Markets, Ed Elson, Scott Galloway, and Claire navigate a spectrum of pressing financial and technological developments. From the nuanced market responses to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran to the groundbreaking yet contested launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service, the hosts provide deep analysis and critical perspectives. Additionally, the discussion on Trump Media Group's controversial buyback program underscores ongoing concerns about corporate governance and personal enrichment strategies within politically charged entities. The episode underscores the importance of discerning market signals amidst sensational headlines and evaluating the authenticity and implications of technological advancements in the pursuit of financial literacy and security.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Ed Elson [01:08]:
  "Today's number 20. That's the percentage of S&P 500 CEOs who have worked at either General Electric or Procter and Gamble at some point in their career. More than any other company."

• Ed Elson [08:11]:
  "World War Three, the thing that everyone keeps talking about, is not on the table right now. That's the message from the markets."

• Ed Elson [23:34]:
  "Trump Media Group, which posted more than $400 million in losses last year, is now announcing a buyback program... this is the only explanation that justifies any of this."

• Claire [10:15]:
  "Do you really want to get in a self-driving car when there's a stranger in the passenger seat?"

• Rebecca Babin [05:05]:
  "Iran does not want to go after energy infrastructure... the market is saying I need to take down that geopolitical risk premium that I'd priced in over the weekend."

---

Note: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content sections to focus solely on the substantive discussions presented in the episode.

Transcript

[Ed Elson]

If you are a fighter, Modelo is your reward. So listen close. You put up with a lot, but you always hold it down for your people. You are strong. You are fearless. You are the baddest on the block. You are an elbow grease factory, a force of nature. You are not to be reckoned with. You are a ride or die, a powerhouse of productivity. You are a fighter and Modelo is your reward. You've earned every last drop of this rich golden lager. So raise it up high. Medelo the mark of a fighter. Drink responsibly Being reported by Crown Imports, Chicago, Illinois.

[Scott Galloway]

Bring the Sabor with Modelo Chilada, a mouthwatering mix of authentic Mexican beer, bold fruit flavors and spices. Bring the heat with Sandia Picante or the citrus burst of Limonizal. Modelo Chelada Bring the Sabor drink responsibly. Modelo Chelada flavored beers imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, Illinois.

[Claire]

Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte, paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With thumbtack, you don't have to be.

[Ed Elson]

A home pro, you just have to hire one.

[Claire]

You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app.

[Ed Elson]

Download today today's number 20. That's the percentage of S&P 500 CEOs who have worked at either General Electric or Procter and Gamble at some point in their career. More than any other company or. Well, there you have it. The traditional MBA is dead. We've talked about this for a long time. The new Harvard Business School is Procter and Gamble. So if you want to be successful in business, my advice to you forget about AI. Forget about big tech. Build some expertise around refrigerators and dish soap. That's what people care about today. That's what it takes to get ahead.

[Claire]

Money Market Met if money is evil.

[Ed Elson]

Then that building is hell. Show goes on. Want to sell? Sell. Welcome to Prof. G Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is June 24th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices all rose around 0.9% as the markets eyed a path towards de escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, crude oil futures fell more than 7%. More on that coming up. The yield on 10 year treasuries dropped after a Federal Reserve governor said she'd favor a rate cut in July. Energy stocks climbed on News that New York will build the first new nuclear plant in more than 15 years. And finally, shares of Hims and Hers shed a massive 35% after Novo Nordisk ended its partnership with the company. Okay, what else is happening? The US Attacked Iran over the weekend, striking three of the nation's key nuclear sites. All three sustained severe damage, according to the Pentagon. Soon after the attack, President Trump said, now is the time for peace. However, Iran quickly vowed to hit back back at American interests, saying there would be, quote, no return to diplomacy until it had retaliated. Less than 24 hours later, Iran launched strikes on a US military base in Qatar. And Iran's foreign minister added that the attacks would have, quote, everlasting consequences. Meanwhile, Israel's leadership told its citizens to be prepared for a long campaign. And this just in. Monday evening, after markets closed, Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a tentative ceasefire, set to go into effect at midnight, Washington time. However, there is still a lot to be learned about how the markets moved prior to the ceasefire. So let's get back to the episode and we'll see if this ceasefire holds. So, a lot of heavy stuff in there. The question we have to ask is how did the markets react? Because as we discussed last week, the markets are a great prediction machine. And if we want to know what happens next, well, the best place to look would probably be the market. So how did markets react? Well, surprisingly, they didn't react that much at all. Gold closed up 0.3% to $3,377. The S&P 500 closed up 1%. Even defense stocks were muted. Lockheed Martin closed down 0.2%. Northrop Grumman and Raytheon each closed up around 1%. Most surprisingly, though, was oil, which fell more than 7% on Monday. And that is very surprising because in a situation like this where there are actual debates happening over whether or not the US has initiated a war, some people say this is a war. Others say, no, this is just a targeted attack. Either way, you would expect the markets to have the opposite reaction. You would expect a decline in the stock market, a huge jump in gold, which is the safe haven asset. And given the fact that this is Iran, which accounts for 4% of the global oil supply, you'd also expect a huge jump in oil prices. But we got none of that. None of that happened. In fact, the opposite happened. And the question is why? Our producer Claire spoke with Rebecca Babin. She is the senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. Let's hear what she said.

[Rebecca Babin]

So I think over the weekend we had this uncertainty about how Iran would respond right after the US kind of formally engaged in the conflict. And when we looked, when we talked last, right, we were talking a lot about the straight of horn moves. And that was very much still in play as what people saw as a potential option for them to target. And that has a direct impact on energy prices and crude flows. So the fact that what we saw today was Iran respond to attacking kind of a military base and not energy infrastructure kind of has taken that tail which was getting really fat and big as an event and kind of reduced that probability. So we said, okay, we're really nervous. We're where we think there's a 35% chance that 20% of the oil flows that we consume on a daily basis may be impacted if this happens. And now we're saying, okay, we think that's a much smaller probability today. But it looks like for now Iran does not want to go after energy infrastructure. That doesn't make this conflict any more easier, more palatable from a social angle, but from an energy impact. The market is saying I need to take down that geopolitical political risk premium that I'd priced in over the weekend and over the kind of weeks as this has kind of been building.

[Scott Galloway]

So what would you say are the odds of Iran actually going that far and targeting energy facilities?

[Rebecca Babin]

That's a really good question. I think the odds are below 15% that they go there. But this conflict has been anything but predictable. So the reason we're not much lower than where we are now, because if you keep, if you look at a chart, we're actually still up 7% or 8% from where we were before Israel initially attacked Iran. Right. So we've taken about, I'm going to just round it here, half the premium out from where we were before this conflict kind of escalated from. So it's not a non zero, but it's significantly less. And I think the way crude is trying to price this is who benefits from them going after energy infrastructure. And that's the key. It doesn't really hurt us as much as it hurts their main customer China. It doesn't hurt the US as much as it potentially hurts its Middle Eastern neighbors. Right. You close the Strait of Hormuz, you crush China, who's the biggest importer of crude oil in the world and the main buyer of Iranian barrels. So that then. And they've been very neutral about how they've responded to this whole conflict. And you don't want to, you know, necessarily hurt your ally as much as you hurt your enemy. And so I think that's the calculus that the market is doing right now is do they really benefit enough by taking that dramatic action? And those probabilities are coming down. It doesn't mean it's zero. I want to be very clear, this is not a zero probability. This is a reduction.

[Ed Elson]

So look, I think what we're learning with this Iran situation is the following. Many of us are very frightened by what is happening and I think that is completely fair. But the investment community is also being pretty unequivocal in its message and that is that World War Three, the thing that everyone keeps talking about, is not on the table right now. That's the message from the markets. And I think that's important to think about, especially over the next few weeks where we're going to be seeing a lot of headlines that look quite frankly, very scary. I mean, your tv, your social media, your group chats, they're all gonna be popping off with messages and memes and conversations about how World War III is just around the corner. And I think it's very difficult to not get wrapped up in that and to not let it affect you on a day to day basis. But on this issue in particular, I do think it's very important to prioritize not what social media is telling you, not what Tucker Carlson's telling you or your second cousin who's the new self proclaimed expert on the Middle East. I think you should ig all of that and focus on what the market is telling you. And right now the market is not very worried about this. And I'm not saying that that means that you shouldn't be worried, but I do think that that is something that you should just keep in mind. Tesla officially launched its robo taxi service on Sunday. The launch was on schedule, per Elon's most recent comments on X. But it also comes more than a decade since Elon talked about the Tesla Robotaxi for first time. Shares rose roughly 9% on the news. So it finally happened. The Robotaxi is, as of this weekend, officially a reality. But as with all Tesla events, there is an important question here, and that is, how real is this reality? Was this a legit launch or was it, as Scott predicted a couple weeks ago on this podcast, a fake launch or some sort of marketing stunt?

[Claire]

We're going to get to this event and it's going to be a bunch of jazz hands with bullshit like the Reboven or robots or, I don't know, Flamethrowers he's going to pull out anything he can out of his ass to say, hey, look over here and ignore the fact we are still way off from autonomous driving.

[Ed Elson]

And the answer is something in between. I don't think jazz hands would be a fair assessment of what happened over the weekend. You know, the Robotaxi was operating. They had 35 Model Y's on the ground driving around Austin. Also, the passengers did Pay. They paid $4.20 per ride, but still they paid. So this was a launch and it was a commercial launch. It wasn't just a stunt. But there were a significant number of caveats that Tesla is going to have to address before they expand this. For one, and this is the most important in my view, every vehicle had a human Tesla employee in the passenger seat, and the job of that employee was to act as a safety monitor. So, yeah, they were autonomous. But was it completely autonomous? No, not really. There was still someone in the car. Also, the operating area was very small. It avoided highways and airports. The geofencing was very much confined. They also said it cannot operate in the rain, so the weather conditions have to be perfect. And then the final detail is that the only customers who were able to use it were a handful of pro Tesla influencers who were invited to try it out. And they all sat in the car and they live streamed the experience. So, in sum, yes, a launch, a successful launch, but still a ton of shortcomings. If I had to summarize, this was about the bare minimum they needed to demonstrate that the Robotaxi exists and that it is operational. So why then did the stock jump 9% after that news? I mean, that is a pretty big jump. That's roughly equivalent to the market cap of Starbucks. So was it actually impressive enough to warrant that increase? Well, let's see what Paul Miller, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, had to say on this. Yes, I think broadly, the stock market is saying few. Tesla has been promising this for a long time. They've missed a lot of those promised launch dates for various things. And here Elon Musk said there will be robo taxis operating in the streets of Austin in the summer. And if you live in the Northern Hemisphere, as we both do, June is in the summer. So they have met their target. Some people might have hoped for more taxis, some people might have hoped for them covering a bigger area. People might have hoped there wouldn't be a safety driver, but the promise was robo taxis in Austin in the summer, and they've met that promise. So the stock market has gone, job done. So, look, we have to give credit where credit's due. Tesla has a robo taxi and it appears to work. And I think if you're a Tesla investor, that is big news. As I've said before, the biggest question mark for Tesla isn't Elon and his drug habits or his relationship with Trump. It's the Robotaxi that is what is driving the valuation. And so we should be honest, this was a great signal. But at the same time, you also have to be realistic about this business. And my sense is that many investors on Wall street continue to be overly optimistic, overly idealistic about the prospects and the timeline of this business Ark. For example, they believe that the Robotaxi will generate over $600 billion by 2029 and that it'll also make up 60% of Tesla's overall business. That just seems a bit too much to me. Dan Ives, who we've had on the podcast, he thinks that Tesla's market cap will double over the next few years exclusively because of the Robotaxi. Again, a bit much. I mean, we're 10 years in, and what we saw this weekend was a handful of influencers who paid $4 to ride in a car with a Tesla employee. And to me, that's not that impressive, especially when you compare it to Waymo, which is doing a quarter of a million paid rides every single week. So the path to success here, I think, is still quite difficult. There's still a lot that could go wrong, whether it's the technology or the regulation or even the competition in Waymo. But before we conclude, let's check in with Scott and see what he thinks of this Tesla launch. How's it going, Scott?

[Claire]

It's going really well, Ed, actually. Is it going well? I did sleep that well last night. I'm a little tired, I'm a little moody, a little bitchy. My son's bummed me out. But other than that, everything's fine.

[Ed Elson]

Not going too well.

[Claire]

Sounds like nothing that inedible in about three hours of Netflix can't fix. How are you doing?

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, that's exactly right. I'm doing quite well. I wanted to get your take on this Tesla launch, which you said, well, you predicted it was going to be jazz hands, or that you thought it was going to be in some way, sort of not really a real launch. But it was a real launch, kind of. They had 35 Model Y's driving around Austin. Your reactions.

[Claire]

Well, just from a consumer experience standpoint, do you really want to get in a self driving car when there's a stranger in the passenger seat. The most appealing thing to me about self driving is that I don't have to make small talk.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Claire]

Or, or look at some guy's air freshener or, or yell at someone because I think he's not following ways. I just, and then feel bad about it. I just don't, I don't see why you'd want to get in a self driving car with someone in the passenger seat. But anyways, look, they, they have, they have a real possible advantage here and it's the following that Waymo is based on very expensive but very sophisticated lidar technology that is supposedly superior technology but doesn't come cheap.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah.

[Claire]

My understanding is these cars fully outfitted from Waymo can run up to a quarter of a million dollars. And Tesla, granted, Tesla is like at this point American intelligence. I don't know what to believe or not to believe. Still political humor there, Ed. They say they'll be able to produce cars for $36,000 with cheaper sensors and technology that is sort of adequate. And if they can do that, that's an enormous advantage. But what I would argue if I were to bifurcate his universe right now, he is killing it in the first mover category. You know, first mover in EVs, first mover in low orbit satellites and launch capability. SpaceX. But his fast follower. I'm pissed off. I want to be in this business self driving or autonomous driving or I want to be an AI. He doesn't seem to be doing that well. So I don't, I'm somewhat bearish on the self driving. I think it's more than I thought it was going to be. They actually did launch. But it strikes me that this all comes down to whether the safety standards on this meet kind of a minimum viable product. Yeah.

[Ed Elson]

Well I guess my question to you would be at what point does it qualify as a minimum viable product? I mean at what point do you think it's going to be fair to say yes, they have a Robotaxi, it works, they have a market and the valuation should reflect that.

[Claire]

When a credible third party with arm's distance data says that this product is within striking range of acceptable safety standards.

[Ed Elson]

Okay.

[Claire]

If they can put out a product, I mean I used to drive a Renault far, it was a lawnmower with doors. If I got hit by a bike, there was a good chance I would get killed. There was absolutely no airbags. There was nothing between me and death in this lawnmower. With doors, but because it had at that point enough safety that young 16 year olds would buy this car. They had, you know, Renault could sell these cars. If this gets to a point where it in fact has consumer acceptance at a much lower price point, then he's got a competitive product. And then the next stage is kind of the stage two of this war is the price war between these two companies as they roll this thing out. So I think this is a tough one because this is an auto company trading at whatever it is, 8 or 900 billion dollars. It should be worth 50 billion based on the jazz hands of autonomous driving and robots. Robots is. Even Cathie Wood is going to have trouble keeping a straight face around this whole robot bullshit. So it's all about autonomous. I think consumers are more willing to get in dangerous vehicles than people think. I mean, look at. Nobody knows. There could be another 10 Boeing aircraft disasters and people would still get in these things if they could get to Dallas for 76 bucks instead of 77. So people talk a big game about safety, but as long as this thing meets a certain level of standards, and if it is in fact dramatically less expensive to punch these things, then the Waymo lidar technology, he will have a competitive product.

[Ed Elson]

Okay, final question for me. Do you hit the squat rack before or after you record the podcast?

[Claire]

Well, if you'd seen my buttocks recently, you wouldn't need to ask that, Ed. No, this is all for show. I find if I just buy all this equipment, I get much bigger. Yeah, no, I've been. Ed. I love you, Ed. It's not. It's not easy to look 59 and seven eights naked when you're 60. Yet it's not easy.

[Ed Elson]

You're looking younger every day.

[Claire]

You know what, my brother?

[Ed Elson]

Well, enjoy your night, Scott.

[Claire]

Thanks, guys.

[Ed Elson]

Thank you. After the break, another grift from Trump Media. Stay with us.

[Claire]

Support for the show comes from Grooms. If you've ever gone down the rabbit hole of trying different nutrition solutions, you've likely had the thought, surely there's a way to improve my skin, gut, health, immunity and brain fog without offending my taste buds. Well, there is. It's called Grunds. Grunds are a convenient, comprehensive formula packed into eight delicious gummies a day. It's not a multivitamin, a greens gummy or a prebiotic. It's all of those things and then some at a fraction of the price. In a Gruins daily snack pack, you get more than 20 vitamins and minerals, plus more than 60 whole food ingredients, all of which help you out in different ways. For example, RUNS has six times the gut health ingredients compared to the leading green powders like biotin and niacinamide, which help with thicker hair, nails and skin health. They also contain mushrooms which can help with brain function. And of course you're probably familiar with vitamin C and how great it is for your immune system. On top of all that, Grunds are vegan and free of nuts, dairy and gluten. Get up to 45% off when you go to Grunds.com and use code Prof. G that's G R u n s Co using code Prof. G for 45% off.

[Scott Galloway]

Fox Creative this is Advertiser Content from Adobe as the head of marketing for a big box retailer, I track a lot of moving parts. In addition to our online presence, we have hundreds of locations in dozens of countries. We're about to launch a full refresh of our brand. The new look and feel is a lot bolder and brighter. With all of the changes, our teams still need to create content fast and follow the new brand guidelines. That's why I chose Adobe Express. For members of the marketing team like me, this brand refresh means we have to work together to create a ton of content for different channels. We need to be consistent, but also fast and flat. Flexible Adobe Express has us covered. Generative AI that's safe for business, lets us create new content in seconds. Brand kits let us centralize our design assets so we can always access or share the latest and greatest. Collaborating with my team members has never been easier. And you know what? We're having more fun too. Adobe Express, the quick and easy app to create on brand content. Learn [e-mail] express business support for this show comes from Salesforce. Today, every team has more work to do than resources available, but digital labor is here to help. Agentforce, the powerful AI from Salesforce, provides a limitless workforce of AI agents for every department. Built into to your existing workflows and your trusted customer data, AgentForce can analyze, decide and execute tasks autonomously, letting you and your employees save time and money to focus on the bigger picture, like moving your business forward. AgentForce what AI was meant to be? Learn more at salesforce.com AgentForce.

[Ed Elson]

We'Re back with Profge Markets. Trump Media and Technology Group announced a share buyback program yesterday. The company, which operates Truth Social, said it will buy back up to $400 million worth of its stock. They said it will improve the company's financial flexibility. Shares rose 0.3% on the day okay, grift 101. This is another case of the President grifting his supporters to enrich himself. And let's just break down what is actually happening here. So the first thing you need to understand is why companies do buybacks. I mean, what is a buyback? This is where you compensate your shareholders by buying your own shares to decrease the supply of the stock and therefore increase the stock price. And as we've discussed before, this is something that is generally done by mature, profitable companies. It's essentially the same as a dividend in the sense that you're taking the profits of your company, and instead of reinvesting them into the business, you're just distributing them to the shareholders, either in the form of dividends, which is a pure cash payment, or in the form of buybacks. So that's why companies do buybacks. And again, it only makes sense if you're a very profitable company, because if you're not profitable, then if you find some cash, you should be using that cash to try to get profitable, not to reward your shareholders. So that is why it is very strange that Trump Media Group, which posted more than $400 million in losses last year, is now announcing a buyback program. And it is even stranger when you realize that just last month, Trump Media Group raised one and a half billion dollars in an equity sale to supposedly transform into a crypto company. So the question then is, why would you raise money via an equity sale and then use the money you just raised to then reverse course and buy back $400 million worth of the equity that you just sold? What is the point in that? And in addition, why aren't you using that money to, I don't know, improve your business, that is losing $400 million a year? And the answer, of course, is grift. This is the only explanation that justifies any of this. That justifies Trump siphoning off this money to enrich himself. Remember, Trump owns 60% of the company, and this is actually almost exactly the prediction I made a year ago when Trump Media went public via spac. If you remember, my view was that Trump needed to get his hands on nearly $200 million because of his civil fraud case with the State of New York. And the easiest way to do that would be to take his company public and then use the proceeds of the SPAC to enrich himself. The only difference is that I predicted that this would happen not via a buyback program, but via a dividend program. When they created the SPAC, they sold $300 million worth of shares to investors, and that money is sitting in the company right now in cash. So I think Trump, I mean, he's clearly aware of this. I think the question he's asking himself right now is how can I get that cash out of the company? And the most logical answer to me, I think Trump Media Group's going to announce a dividend. They're going to give the money to shareholders. Trump takes 60%. It'll all be money that was, in essence, put up by his supporters who bought the stock, and he'll use that money to pay off the lawsuit. So it would be one of the greatest grifts ever. So I'm going to count this prediction as pretty much correct. The only thing I got wrong is that it wasn't a dividend, it was actually a buyback. And to be honest, I should have realized that because what is the crucial difference between those two things? Well, dividends are taxed as regular income, that's around 40%. Buybacks are taxed as capital gains, that's 20%. So the share buyback was the more tax efficient grift method, and that's why he took that route. So what can we expect now? Well, to fully complete this prediction, we would need Trump to use the shares to pay off his civil fraud case, either by simply selling them or by borrowing against them. And as a reminder, he still owes money to the State of New York, more than $500 million right now because the debt has been piling up while he appeals the lawsuit, and that appeal is still being litigated. So my follow up prediction, he's already using the cash in the company to inflate the price of the stock, which is tantamount to a dividend. Next up, I think Trump will sell his stock in Trump Media Group, but only once he has an official answer from the court because right now it's being appealed. But if it turns out that he does have to pay it, if he has to pay $500 million, well, then he has this very nice backup plan, which is that he has a big, big pile of money that he collected from the SPAC and from this buyback program. And it's Trump Media Group. So there's your daily dose of Grift 101. I predict this will become a running series. We are seeing new grift policies basically every single week. And this is just the latest one. And if you've been listening to the podcast, then you probably saw this coming. But more grift from Trump, more evidence that our president is probably the greatest grifter in the history of our country. Okay.

[Claire]

All right.

[Ed Elson]

That's it for today. Thanks for listening to Profit G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow.

[Scott Galloway]

Support for this show comes from Pure Leaf Iced Tea. When you find yourself in the afternoon slump, you need the right thing to make you bounce back. You need pure leaf iced tea. It's real brewed tea made in a variety of bold flavors with just the right amount of naturally occurring caffeine. You're left feeling refreshed and revitalized so you can be ready to take on what's next. The next time you need to hit the reset button, grab a pure leaf iced tea. Time for a tea break. Time for a pure leaf. Paramount is your streaming home for the nwsl.

[Ed Elson]

The best women's soccer league in the world.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh my goodness.

[Rebecca Babin]

The game's brightest stars and Thompson surging forward.

[Ed Elson]

And the world's top clubs. Kansas City cannot stop scoring. Battling it out on the pitch in.

[Rebecca Babin]

Pursuit of the ultimate Prize outstanding, the NWSL.

[Ed Elson]

Streaming all season long on Paramount Plus.

[Claire]

Welcome to NWSL.

[Ed Elson]

With HubSpot's suite of AI powered tools, you can get more done way faster. Speed up your lead generation and create attention grabbing, lead driving, quota crushing campaigns in an instant. Get started [e-mail] AI.