Prof G Markets: OpenAI’s $500B Valuation + Key Takeaways from Disney and Uber Earnings

Release Date: August 7, 2025

Overview

In this episode of Prof G Markets, hosted by Ed Elson of the Vox Media Podcast Network, the discussion centers around the monumental valuation of OpenAI, as well as insights from the latest earnings reports of Disney and Uber. The episode delves into the shifting dynamics between private and public markets, strategic moves within major corporations, and the evolving landscape of technology and entertainment industries.

OpenAI’s Monumental Valuation

Ed Elson opens the discussion by highlighting OpenAI's potential share sale, which values the company at an unprecedented $500 billion, a significant leap from its earlier valuation of $300 billion earlier in the year.

Ed Elson [02:07]: "This new deal would be a secondary sale with current and former employees selling shares. So OpenAI has hit a half a trillion dollar valuation. That makes it the most valuable private company in the world. Also the most valuable private company of all time."

Elson emphasizes the shift in market dynamics where private markets are increasingly overshadowing public markets in terms of capital raising, brand awareness, and liquidity. He argues that OpenAI's success is indicative of a broader trend where high-value companies can thrive without needing to go public.

Ed Elson [03:10]: "If you want to raise tens of billions of dollars, you need to find the money somewhere the public markets are supposed to provide... Private markets are now more than capable of checking all three boxes."

He further critiques the implications for retail investors, who are excluded from such lucrative opportunities in private markets, contrasting it with the accessibility offered by public markets.

Disney’s Earnings Report

Ed Elson transitions to Disney's recent earnings, noting a decline in stock price despite beating expectations. Disney reported a revenue increase driven by its Experiences segment but faced challenges in its Entertainment division.

Ed Elson [15:00]: "Disney stock fell yesterday despite beating expectations. Revenue came in just shy of forecasts... The Experiences segment was a standout, with revenue up 8% thanks to strong performance from the domestic parks and the Disney cruise line."

To provide deeper analysis, Jason Bazinet, Managing Director of Media and Entertainment Research at Citigroup, joins the conversation to dissect Disney’s performance.

Key Insights from Jason Bazinet

Initial Reactions

Jason Bazinet [12:31]: "The main fear that street had coming into this earnings result was what they call the Experiences segment... the numbers were actually quite good at Experiences."

He explains that while Disney's Experiences segment performed well, the company's slight miss in raising its full-year earnings guidance contributed to the stock's decline.

Strategic Moves: Hulu and ESPN-NFL Deal

When discussing Disney's strategic announcements—merging Hulu into Disney and the ESPN-NFL deal—Bazinet provides clarity:

Jason Bazinet [13:53]: "Disney has been somewhat hamstrung in terms of what it could do with Hulu until it bought the 33%... This is sort of the first flexibility that Disney had to do whatever it wants to do with Hulu."

Bazinet asserts that the market's reaction was primarily due to the earnings guidance rather than these strategic moves. He notes that the streaming business's acceleration is crucial for Disney's future growth but was not fully reflected in the recent earnings report.

Focus on Experiences over Streaming

Jason Bazinet [16:36]: "The central one is really just media's just been walloped by all these digital changes... All eyes shift towards experiences where it's viewed as sort of better."

He highlights a strategic pivot where Disney invests more in its capital-intensive Experiences segment, viewing it as a competitive moat in the shifting media landscape dominated by digital transformation.

Uber’s Earnings Report

The episode shifts focus to Uber's strong earnings, characterized by an 18% year-over-year revenue increase and the announcement of a substantial $20 billion buyback. Despite these positive indicators, Uber's stock saw a 5% dip on the day of the report.

To unpack this, Mark Mahaney, Senior Managing Director and Head of Internet Research at Evercore, provides his analysis.

Key Insights from Mark Mahaney

Performance Highlights

Mark Mahaney [26:52]: "The star of the show was the delivery business that showed this kind of accelerating bookings growth, revenue growth."

He commends Uber's delivery segment for its robust growth and transparency in disclosures, though he notes some concerns in the mobility segment related to declining bookings due to insurance rate adjustments.

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) Strategy

Mahaney delves into Uber's strategy in the autonomous vehicle space, emphasizing partnerships rather than developing an in-house robo-taxi platform.

Mark Mahaney [31:48]: "What Uber needs to do is... bring several [AV partners] onto the network and they need to prove to the partner and also to consumers and regulators that other AV partners can work just as well as Waymo did."

He views Uber's collaborative approach with multiple AV companies as a strength, providing negotiating leverage and fostering a competitive ecosystem that benefits Uber's long-term positioning.

Stock Performance and Future Outlook

Despite strong earnings, the stock's pullback is attributed to high expectations given its 47% year-to-date increase and investor demand for spectacular results.

Mark Mahaney [35:16]: "They checked off most of the boxes that they needed to for their print today."

He remains bullish on Uber, citing its leadership in global markets and potential growth in AV partnerships as key drivers for future stock performance.

Concluding Insights

Ed Elson wraps up the episode by reaffirming Uber's strategic focus on diversifying beyond ride-hailing into areas like delivery, freight, and autonomous vehicles. He underscores the significance of Uber's $500 billion valuation for OpenAI and the implications for retail investors who are excluded from such high-value private market opportunities.

Ed Elson [36:12]: "This is a company that has demonstrated a pretty strong ability to diversify into new businesses... They are laser focused on autonomous."

He concludes by highlighting the disparity between private and public markets, emphasizing the challenges retail investors face in accessing opportunities in the rapidly evolving tech and entertainment sectors.

Key Takeaways

1. Private Markets Ascendancy: OpenAI's $500 billion valuation underscores the growing power and relevance of private markets in capital raising, brand building, and providing liquidity without necessitating a public listing.

2. Disney’s Strategic Shifts: Despite strong performance in the Experiences segment, Disney faces challenges in its Entertainment division. Strategic integrations like merging Hulu and the ESPN-NFL deal are foundational moves aimed at future growth, particularly in streaming.

3. Uber’s Diversification and AV Focus: Uber continues to expand beyond ride-hailing into delivery and autonomous vehicles. Its partnerships with multiple AV firms position it advantageously in the evolving transportation landscape, although high stock valuations set elevated expectations.

4. Retail Investor Exclusion: The trend of high-value private market deals means that retail investors are increasingly sidelined from lucrative investment opportunities, highlighting a growing divide between private and public investment landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• Ed Elson [02:07]: "OpenAI has hit a half a trillion dollar valuation. That makes it the most valuable private company in the world."

• Jason Bazinet [12:31]: "The main fear that street had coming into this earnings result was what they call the Experiences segment... the numbers were actually quite good at Experiences."

• Mark Mahaney [31:48]: "What Uber needs to do is... bring several [AV partners] onto the network and they need to prove to the partner and also to consumers and regulators that other AV partners can work just as well as Waymo did."

• Ed Elson [36:12]: "This is a company that has demonstrated a pretty strong ability to diversify into new businesses... They are laser focused on autonomous."

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