Prof G Markets: Paramount’s $16M Trump Settlement, Tesla’s Worst-Ever Delivery Drop & Figma’s IPO

Release Date: July 3, 2025
Host: Vox Media Podcast Network
Episode Title: Paramount’s $16M Trump Settlement, Tesla’s Worst-Ever Delivery Drop & Figma’s IPO

1. Market Overview

The episode kicks off with a quick check-in on the capital markets:

• Stock Indices:

  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ: Both closed at record highs.

• Trade Developments:

  • Trade Deal with Vietnam: President Trump announced a reduction of Vietnamese tariffs on U.S. exports from 46% down to 20%. In exchange, Vietnam will not impose tariffs on U.S. goods.

• Currency and Bonds:

  • U.S. Dollar: Rose but remains near a three-year low.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yields: Experienced a slight uptick.

2. Figma’s IPO: A Triumph for Innovation and Retail Investors

Timestamp: [01:50] – [11:45]

Overview:
Figma, a renowned design software company, has filed for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FIG. Analysts anticipate a valuation around $20 billion, aiming to raise approximately $1.5 billion—a figure comparable to Core Weave's notable IPO.

Background:
Less than two years prior, Adobe planned to acquire Figma for $20 billion. However, antitrust regulators in the UK and Europe halted the merger, citing competition suppression concerns. Consequently, Figma opted to pursue its IPO independently, showcasing resilience and strong fundamentals.

Ed Elson’s Insights:
Ed lauds Figma's IPO, emphasizing its distinctiveness compared to other underwhelming IPOs this year. He states:

“All the great companies are staying private and all the not-so-great companies are going public. This, however, is very different. This is a high quality, high value, long-term company with great fundamentals and a great product.”
[05:30]

Financial Performance:

• Revenue Growth: Last quarter saw a 46% increase to $228 million.
• Net Income: Tripled to $45 million.
• Trailing 12-Month Revenue: Reached $821 million with impressive 91% gross margins.
• Customer Base: 78% of the Fortune 2000 utilize Figma, boasting a 132% dollar retention rate.
• Market Share: Dominates 40% of the design software market, surpassing Adobe.

Strategic Moves:
Post the thwarted Adobe acquisition, Figma intensified its research and development, investing nearly fivefold into AI—integrating it into their core offerings, thereby driving a near 50% revenue growth.

Ed’s Conclusion:
He underscores the significance of retail investors gaining access to Figma's IPO, labeling it as "a win for retail investors" and expressing optimism about its valuation and long-term prospects.

“This is exactly what an American IPO should look like. So congrats.”
[10:20]

3. Paramount’s $16M Settlement with Donald Trump: A Controversial Resolution

Timestamp: [11:50] – [33:13]

Overview:
Paramount has settled a lawsuit filed by former President Donald Trump for $16 million. The lawsuit stemmed from a claim that a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris was deceptively edited to favor her. Initially, Trump sought $10 billion in damages, later increasing his demand to $20 billion and an apology from Paramount. Despite denying wrongdoing, Paramount opted to settle.

Key Details:

• Settlement Amount: $16 million comprises payments for Trump's legal fees and contributions to his future presidential library.
• Paramount’s Merger Plans: At the time of settlement, Paramount was in the process of attempting an $8 billion merger with Skydance Media, pending governmental approvals, particularly from the FCC.

Bill Cohen's Analysis:
Bill Cohen, a New York Times bestselling author and founding partner of Puck, offers a scathing critique of the settlement:

“This settlement is reprehensible in every way... It was all about extortion... a shameless president... using the power of his office to benefit himself.”
[14:05]

Implications:
Cohen suggests a direct link between the settlement and Paramount's merger with Skydance Media, insinuating that the settlement was a maneuver to facilitate the deal amidst regulatory hurdles. He labels the lawsuit as unjustified and sees the settlement as a form of corporate capitulation to political pressure.

Claire’s Commentary:
Claire concurs with Cohen's perspective, highlighting Paramount's public denial of any connection between the lawsuit and the merger as indicative of the underlying motives. She remarks:

“The idea that this settlement doesn't have anything to do with the merger is just so blatantly untrue.”
[17:38]

Market and Political Repercussions:
The settlement raises concerns about corporate governance and the influence of political power on business transactions. It also draws parallels to a previous settlement where ABC paid Trump $15 million in a defamation lawsuit, further illustrating media companies' compliance under Trump's legal pressures.

4. Tesla’s Q2 Delivery Numbers: A Significant Decline Amidst Optimism

Timestamp: [19:36] – [27:07]

Overview:
Tesla reported a 14% year-over-year drop in Q2 vehicle deliveries, totaling 384,000 units. This marks the second consecutive quarterly decline, following a 13% drop in Q1. Despite the decline, the figures surpassed analyst expectations, which projected a near 20% reduction, leading Tesla’s stock to close up by 5%.

Current Challenges for Tesla:

• Product Issues:

  • Cybertruck: Facing recalls and sales missing projections by nearly 90%.

• Competitive Pressure:

  • Robotaxi Developments: Lagging behind competitors like Waymo.
  • International Competition: BYD outperforming in both sales and profitability.

Valuation Concerns:
Tesla continues to trade at an astronomical 125 times earnings, significantly higher than the auto industry's average of 30. Comparatively, tech giants like Nvidia and Oracle trade at 48 and 36 times earnings, respectively, highlighting Tesla's "supernatural valuation."

Tim Higgins’ Insights:
Tim Higgins, a Wall Street Journal columnist, delves into the disconnect between Tesla’s declining deliveries and its soaring valuation:

“Investors who are buying into this are seeing it much more than that, really kind of a vehicle into the future... the ability of Musk to execute on the impossible and are buying their ticket for that ride.”
[23:24]

He attributes Tesla’s high valuation to investor faith in Elon Musk’s vision and execution capabilities, viewing the company as a conduit to future technological advancements rather than a traditional automaker.

Scott Galloway’s Takeaways:
Scott emphasizes the need for Tesla to demonstrate tangible growth to justify its valuation:

“We have to see growth from Tesla. We can't continue to see these declines or else the story with the stock will change.”
[25:47]

Claire’s Critique:
Claire challenges the market's perception, urging for concrete evidence of revenue growth in Tesla’s forward-looking ventures like robotaxis and humanoid robots:

“Show me the revenue on the robotaxi. Show me the revenue on the humanoid robots.”
[27:07]

She underscores the skepticism surrounding Tesla’s futuristic projects and calls for accountability in demonstrating actual financial performance beyond ambitious projections.

5. Brief Discussion on the Tax Bill

Timestamp: [28:35] – [33:13]

Towards the episode's conclusion, Scott and Ed briefly touch upon the ongoing tax bill debates in Congress:

• Current Status:

  • The bill is with the House, facing potential blockage.

• Ed’s Perspective:

  • Ed expresses concern over the bill's implications, linking it to his personal experiences with educational assistance and the potential reduction in Pell Grants:

    “This is very distressing for anyone who is at all thoughtful and reflecting honestly on the prosperity they enjoyed in my generation.”
    [30:39]

• Future Outlook:

  • Despite anticipated opposition, Ed predicts the bill will ultimately become law, highlighting the recurring pattern of political maneuvering overriding substantive debate.

Conclusion

This episode of Prof G Markets offers an in-depth analysis of significant developments impacting the capital markets:

• Figma’s IPO emerges as a beacon of robust fundamental growth and a promising opportunity for retail investors.
• Paramount’s settlement with Donald Trump raises critical questions about corporate integrity and political influence in business transactions.
• Tesla’s declining deliveries juxtaposed with its inflated valuation highlights the volatile interplay between market expectations and actual performance.

Listeners are encouraged to stay informed and critically evaluate the underpinnings of market movements and corporate strategies to navigate the complexities of a capitalist society effectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Ed Elson on Figma’s IPO:

  “This is exactly what an American IPO should look like. So congrats.”
  [10:20]

• Bill Cohen on Paramount's Settlement:

  “This settlement is reprehensible in every way... It was all about extortion... a shameless president...”
  [14:05]

• Tim Higgins on Tesla’s Valuation:

  “Investors who are buying into this are seeing it much more than that...”
  [23:24]

• Scott Galloway on Tesla’s Future:

  “We have to see growth from Tesla. We can't continue to see these declines...”
  [25:47]

• Claire on Tesla’s Revenue Demands:

  “Show me the revenue on the robotaxi. Show me the revenue on the humanoid robots.”
  [27:07]

For more insights and daily financial analysis, tune into Prof G Markets every Monday through Friday on the Vox Media Podcast Network.