Prof G Markets Podcast Summary: "Predictions for 2025"
Release Date: January 6, 2025
Host: Scott Galloway and Ed Elson
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network
Introduction
In the kickoff episode of 2025, hosts Scott Galloway and Ed Elson delve into their comprehensive predictions for the year ahead, spanning technology, markets, media, and societal trends. Drawing from their expertise and audience interactions, they present insightful forecasts designed to inform and engage listeners navigating the complexities of a capitalist society.
1. New Duopoly: OpenAI and Nvidia
Timestamp: [01:51]
Scott Galloway identifies OpenAI and Nvidia as the emerging powerhouse duo of 2025, akin to the historical Wintel (Windows + Intel) partnership.
Scott Galloway [02:04]: "These are the new Duopoly of the age. And what's so striking is these are fairly new companies but between the two of them they have, I guess, Nvidia is about $3.2 trillion. They have about a $3.5 trillion market capitalization."
Galloway emphasizes their dominance in AI search queries and the chip market, predicting their influence will surpass that of traditional tech giants.
2. The Future of AI: Software as a Service vs. Service as a Software
Timestamp: [02:49]
Galloway introduces the concept of "Service as Software," highlighting the evolution of AI applications.
Scott Galloway [02:55]: "AI is, or the next iteration of AIs. ... I think there's going to be a bunch of niche applications specifically in the enterprise, in the back office."
He anticipates a surge in specialized AI-driven applications tailored to specific industries, building on platforms like OpenAI and Nvidia.
3. Technology of 2025: Nuclear Energy
Timestamp: [04:37]
The hosts shift focus to energy, with Galloway asserting that nuclear power will be a pivotal technology in 2025.
Scott Galloway [04:43]: "It's clear that they've figured out that the choke point here will be we're going to run out of energy pretty quickly and that we've got to bring new energy online. ... I think nuclear is going to have a big year in 2025."
He discusses major investments from tech giants like Meta and the critical role of nuclear energy in sustaining AI growth.
Listener Question:
Steve [05:18]: "What are the best ways to invest in nuclear?"
Ed Elson [06:03]: Recommends stocks like Constellation Energy, Vistra, and Entergy Corporation, while advising diversification through nuclear ETFs to mitigate risks.
4. Investment of 2025: Emerging Markets
Timestamp: [08:27]
Galloway predicts a significant shift in capital flows from the US to emerging markets after a prolonged bull run.
Scott Galloway [08:27]: "The US market represents 50% of total market cap of all stocks globally, which is what you would call a cyclical high. ... the world x the US is going to likely outperform the US over the next five to ten years."
He highlights opportunities in markets like Argentina and Brazil, emphasizing undervaluation and the potential for robust returns.
5. Platform of 2025: YouTube
Timestamp: [10:38]
Galloway champions YouTube as the premier streaming video platform, surpassing competitors like Netflix.
Scott Galloway [12:25]: "YouTube continues to take share from almost everybody and they have a paid offering. ... it's exceptionally bullish on the YouTube platform."
He underscores YouTube's effective ad-supported model and its dominance in engaging younger demographics.
Ed Elson [13:25]: Adds that YouTube's interactive features, such as comments and live streaming, enhance user engagement and accountability.
6. IPO of 2025: Shein
Timestamp: [22:32]
Galloway identifies Shein as the standout IPO of 2025, anticipating its market entry on the London Stock Exchange.
Scott Galloway [22:36]: "Shein is doing 2 million. ... I think that capitalism and greed will overwhelm any concerns and this will be the IPO of 2025."
He praises Shein's low-capex, high-efficiency business model, positioning it as a disruptor in the fast fashion industry.
Listener Question:
Doug [25:09]: "What about tariffs? That is, let's say Trump does impose tariffs. That seems like a potential risk for Shein."
Scott Galloway [25:15]: Minimizes the impact of tariffs, arguing Shein's cost advantages and pricing disparity will allow it to weather such challenges.
7. Business Trend of 2025: Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)
Timestamp: [28:01]
With corporations amassing record profits and seeking growth avenues, Galloway forecasts a boom in M&A activities.
Scott Galloway [28:01]: "I'm just going to see tons of M and A here. ... I think M and A is absolutely going to boom."
He anticipates private equity firms deploying significant capital to acquire or merge with established companies like Boeing, Intel, Nike, and Target.
8. Tech Movement of 2025: Banning Phones and Social Media
Timestamp: [30:22]
Galloway discusses a global trend toward restricting phone and social media use among youth to enhance mental health and academic performance.
Scott Galloway [30:46]: "You’re going to see phone bans and social media bans and age gating break out all over the world."
He cites measures in Australia, New Zealand, Lithuania, and various US states as indicators of this movement.
Listener Question:
Brian [32:05]: "How can we mobilize Gen X to provide mentoring services to Gen Z?"
Scott Galloway [32:05]: Emphasizes the importance of male role models and cultural shifts to encourage Gen X men to engage in mentoring young men, highlighting the societal benefits of such relationships.
9. Chemical of 2025: Testosterone
Timestamp: [36:20]
Galloway declares testosterone as the defining "chemical" of 2025, linking it to shifts in political and social dynamics.
Scott Galloway [36:36]: "This is the year of testosterone."
He connects increased political polarization and the rise of the "manosphere" to testosterone-driven behaviors and attitudes.
10. Listener Prediction: Ed Elson Creates Independent Media Network
Timestamp: [38:07]
Responding to listener Evan's prediction, Ed Elson discusses the potential for independent media networks, while Scott reinforces the value of collaborative growth within Prof G Markets.
Scott Galloway [38:23]: "Greatness is in the agency of others ... I'm very excited to build something with so many talented young people."
Ed expresses enthusiasm for expanding their media presence and acknowledges the contributions of their young team members.
Conclusion
Scott Galloway and Ed Elson wrap up the episode by reflecting on their successes in 2024 and expressing optimism for the upcoming year. They highlight the importance of mentorship, the evolving media landscape, and the transformative trends anticipated in technology and markets.
Notable Quotes
- Scott Galloway [02:04]: "These are the new Duopoly of the age."
- Scott Galloway [02:55]: "There'll be little niche applications that focus on specifics."
- Scott Galloway [04:43]: "I think nuclear is going to have a big year in 2025."
- Scott Galloway [08:27]: "We're going to start hunting for cheaper stocks in emerging markets."
- Scott Galloway [12:25]: "YouTube is benefiting massively from user engagement."
- Scott Galloway [22:36]: "Shein... will likely surpass Walmart and become the biggest apparel retailer in the world."
- Scott Galloway [28:01]: "M and A is absolutely going to boom."
- Scott Galloway [30:46]: "It's going to boost student engagement and test scores."
- Scott Galloway [36:36]: "This is the year of testosterone."
Key Takeaways
- Technological Dominance: OpenAI and Nvidia are set to lead the AI revolution, while nuclear energy emerges as a critical infrastructure component.
- Investment Shifts: A capital flow reversal towards emerging markets presents new opportunities for investors seeking growth beyond the US.
- Media Evolution: YouTube's robust platform and interactive features position it as the leading media platform, while podcasts continue to grow in influence.
- Market Dynamics: Shein's IPO exemplifies the potential of low-capex, high-efficiency business models in disrupting established industries.
- Social Trends: Increasing restrictions on phone and social media use among youth reflect a broader societal push towards improving mental health and academic outcomes.
- Cultural Shifts: Emphasis on mentorship and male role models is crucial for supporting young men's well-being and societal integration.
Produced by: Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer
Associate Producer: Alison Weiss
Research Lead: Mia Silverio
Research Associate: Jessica Lang
Technical Director: Drew Burrows
Executive Producer: Catherine Dillon
Next Episode: Join Scott and Ed on Thursday for a conversation with Ramit Sethi, only on Prof G Markets.
Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Stay informed, stay ahead.