The Most Dangerous AI Model Just Leaked

Summary

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Prof G Markets – April 23, 2026

Episode: “The Most Dangerous AI Model Just Leaked”
Hosts: Ed Elson (Vox Media Podcast Network)
Guests: Sherry Davidoff (Founder, LMG Security & co-host, Cyberside Chats), Seth Goldstein (Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar)
Release Date: April 23, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode provides a sharp, no-nonsense briefing on two urgent market stories: the major security breach of Anthropic’s most powerful AI model, Mythos, and Tesla’s latest earnings report, including their progress with Robotaxi and humanoid robots. The hosts also analyze Iran’s ongoing hostilities and their overlooked impact on global markets. The Prof G Markets team delivers expert context, skeptical inquiry, and brisk market intelligence without jargon.

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1. Anthropic’s Mythos AI Model Leak: Security Threats & AI’s New Era

With guest Sherry Davidoff, LMG Security (MM:SS 02:07–14:25)

Key Points & Insights

• Incident Recap:
  • Anthropic released Mythos Preview, an extremely advanced AI model, in a controlled, limited rollout to around 40 tech companies.
  • Bloomberg reported that unapproved, unidentified users gained access the same day Project Glasswing (the controlled rollout) launched.
  • Anthropic is investigating but, as of the recording, found no evidence of malicious use.
  • The breach raises severe questions about AI security, access, and the risk of misuse at scale.

Breaking Down the Threat

• Magnitude of the Risk:

  • Sherry Davidoff: “Mythos is completely changing the security risk landscape right now... It’s basically like a hacking ray. You can point it at software, and even if you don’t have the source code, it can still detect vulnerabilities and write code that will exploit it.” (05:55)
  • The model can autonomously scan any software for vulnerabilities and generate working exploits without human intervention, giving potentially anyone with access the power to hack at scale.

• Breach Inevitability & Vetting Concerns:

  • With so many organizations involved, unauthorized access was “inevitable.”
  • Notable quote: “They say three can keep a secret if two of them are dead.” (Sherry, 04:45)
  • Unclear how companies are being vetted, what safeguards are in place, and whether even best-in-class security can prevent further leaks.

• Industry Implications:

  • The old cycle of discovering, patching, and responding to software vulnerabilities can’t keep up. Now there is risk of mass, automated exploitation.
  • Small suppliers and businesses could be overwhelmed; rapid, continuous updates and AI-powered defensive tools will become the norm.

• Role of Government & Regulation:

  • Parallels drawn to past government-held arsenal of vulnerabilities (like NSA/CIA “stockpiles”).
  • Sherry: “Maybe setting some standards for disclosure. If you have an AI that has certain capabilities, do we need to track that? Do we need to notify anybody?” (10:04)
  • Government could/should set disclosure standards for high-risk AI capabilities.

Hype or Reality?

• Skepticism Addressed:
  • Ed suggests some of the warnings could be Anthropic’s “fear-mongering marketing tactic” to hype their own technology for investors.
  • Sherry rebuts, citing direct experience with “dark web” tools already showing advanced capabilities:
    • “I wish I thought it was hype, but I myself have been using Claude code. I’ve been looking at the capabilities of Opus... Tools like Worm GBT and Fraud GPT... were already pretty darn good at finding vulnerabilities and writing exploits.” (11:57)
  • The threat is real; security professionals are not overreacting.

Geopolitical & National Security Concerns

• State Actor Interest:
  • China, Russia, and Iran are undoubtedly seeking access to such powerful models, raising national security stakes.
  • The possibility of insider risk through bribery—e.g., Russian agents once offering a $1 million bribe to a Tesla employee to plant malware—was highlighted as a cautionary parallel. (13:26)

Memorable Quotes

• Sherry Davidoff, 05:55:
  “It’s basically like a hacking ray. You can point it at software, and even if you don’t have the source code, it can still detect vulnerabilities and write code that will exploit it.”
• Ed Elson, 10:51:
  “It would make sense for Anthropic to say, look how crazy and bad this is and get a lot of headlines and generate a lot of heat. But then at the same time, it also seems very dangerous and frankly stupid to just assume that it’s marketing and sort of cover our eyes... Because it could very well be a problem.”

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2. Tesla Earnings and Future Bets: Cash Flows, Robotaxi & Robots

With guest Seth Goldstein, Morningstar (MM:SS 17:41–32:23)

Q1 Performance & Market Outlook

• Earnings Headlines:

  • Tesla beat analyst revenue and cash flow expectations, despite Q1 deliveries missing projections.
  • Positive free cash flow is crucial given Tesla’s ambitious $20+ billion expenditure on AI and robotics pivot.

• Highlight Developments:

  • Seth: “Tesla was able to launch its Robotaxi in two new markets by April... launching immediately into unsupervised robo taxi [no safety monitor].” (18:31)
  • Progress in factory refit: shifting a plant from cars (Model S/X) to producing “Optimus” humanoid robots—on track to start production by year-end.

• Robotaxi Progress (and Skepticism):

  • Robotaxi has underdelivered for years; “always a year away.”
  • Latest launches (Dallas, Houston) now feature no safety driver, suggesting meaningful software progress.
  • Rollout remains intentionally slow to avoid a repeat of Cruise’s disaster, but there’s “real revenue” and plans to expand to five more cities soon. (21:35)
  • Seth: “We’re actually seeing progress. But Tesla wants to go intentionally very slow here... Nobody wants a repeat of the Cruise incident.”

Delivery & Sales Dynamics

• Auto Business Health:

  • Deliveries up 6% YoY, but production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 cars—the biggest gap yet.
  • Automotive profit margins remain strong (>19%), signaling core business resilience.
  • Growth of high-margin software (Full Self-Driving subscriptions rose another 100,000 in the quarter) and insurance strategies are offsetting some auto market headwinds.

• Regulatory Tailwinds:

  • Pending approval for FSD in Europe may boost sales, as software differentiates Tesla in a competitive EV landscape. (23:44)

Valuation: Is Tesla Still a Car Company?

• Market Valuation Context:
  • Trades at 185x forward earnings—far higher than other “Mag 7” stocks (Apple at 30x, for example).
  • Market assigns such a rich multiple based on expectations for monumental success with high-margin software (autonomy) and humanoid robots.
  • “If the software works... it’s going to be a very high margin free cash flow stream that’s coming.” (Seth, 28:17)
  • Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $400—roughly the current trading level—implying neither over- nor under-valued, per their projections.

SpaceX IPO Ripple Effects

• Potential Impact:
  • SpaceX may soon go public at a $2 trillion valuation.
  • Question: Will it siphon off the “Elon Musk premium” from Tesla if investors split their capital?
  • Seth argues excitement and index inclusion will allow many to hold both, especially as the two companies could become increasingly synergistic (e.g., Tesla providing robots and solar/batteries for SpaceX infrastructure).

Memorable Quotes

• Seth Goldstein, 21:35:
  “The Robotaxi has been a year away for most of the past decade and so I understand the reason for the skepticism. But we’re seeing tangible progress now... They want to be confident in the technology, confident that the software can handle all of the edge cases...”
• Ed Elson, 26:07:
  “Can they come back, especially in Europe, from this massive slump that we did see in sales where everyone basically just turned against Tesla as a company essentially because of Elon?”
• Seth Goldstein, 28:17:
  “If the software works, then it’s going to be a very high margin free cash flow stream that's coming.”

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3. Iran Ceasefire Extension: Market Complacency & “News Fatigue”

(MM:SS 32:23–36:59)

Breakdown

• Ceasefire Realities:

  • The so-called ceasefire between the US and Iran has been repeatedly violated by both sides.
  • Both US and Iranian forces have attacked ships and continued military actions despite public claims to the contrary.

• Investor Complacency:

  • Markets have rebounded as if the situation is normalizing, but Ed Elson argues nothing fundamental has changed—volatility remains, oil and gas prices are still high.
  • “We are entering the next chapter of the story... news fatigue, where the headlines become overwhelming, the news becomes confusing, and eventually we get bored of it and decide to stop caring altogether.” (34:44)

• Core Point:

  • The only thing that’s changed is our “tolerance” or “normalization” of a continued state of conflict, a dangerous precedent which could blindside markets if the situation worsens.

• Ed’s crucial question:

  • “What exactly has changed? ... The way I see it, nothing has changed. We’re still at war with Iran.” (33:17, 34:18)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:07] – [14:25]: Mythos AI model leak & cybersecurity stakes (Guest: Sherry Davidoff)
• [17:41] – [32:23]: Tesla Q1 earnings, Robotaxi/robotics, valuation & SpaceX IPO effects (Guest: Seth Goldstein)
• [32:23] – [36:59]: Iran “ceasefire,” market psychology, and the danger of news fatigue

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Tone and Commentary

• Ed Elson maintains a brisk, direct, slightly sardonic style—blending market skepticism with humor (e.g., “Money market matter. If money is evil, then that building is hell. The show goes on.” – 02:07).
• Expert guests cut through hype and PR spin, foregrounding real risks and operational realities.

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In Summary

This episode delivers a cogent, high-alert analysis of the collision between AI innovation and security risk, the transformative ambitions (and volatility) of Tesla, and markets’ tendency to look away from ongoing geopolitical peril. The message: the ground is shifting beneath the surface of tech and markets, even if investor behavior lulls us into complacency.

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Notable Quote to End:
Ed Elson (34:44):
“We have decided for our own sanity that things are improving or at least that things don’t really matter anymore... I think the economy is about to tell us a hard truth. They haven’t.”

Transcript

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[Seth Goldstein]

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[Ed Elson]

Today's number 62. That's the percentage of influencers who report feeling burned out, according to a new content creator Mental health study. Today's other number is zero. That's the percentage of Americans who care. Money market matter. If money is evil, then that building is hell. The show goes on. Welcome to Prof. G Markets. I'm Ed elson. It is April 23rd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record closing highs on the ceasefire extension. The Dow also rose. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude rose back above $1 per barrel after Iran seized container ships. The dollar and treasury yields climbed. And finally, cannabis stocks soared on news that the DOJ is moving to reclassify marijuana as a less restricted substance. Okay, what else is happening? Anthropic built an AI model so dangerous, they refused to release it to the public. We discussed that last week. However, we just learned that unauthorized users got a hold of it. Anyway, Bloomberg reported that a small group of unknown, unapproved users have had access to the model Mythos for two weeks. They broke into the model the same day Anthropic launched Project Glasswing, a controlled rollout giving a select group of companies exclusive access to the model. Anthropic says it is investigating the security breach from these unidentified individuals, but but has found no evidence of malicious use so far. The question is, if they can access Mythos without permission, then who else can, and how bad could it get? Here to help us answer those questions, we're speaking with Sherry Davidoff, founder of LMG Security and co host of the podcast Cyberside Chats. Sherry, thanks for joining us on the show here. So we discussed Anthropic's Mythos model the other week. It's extremely powerful. How powerful? I don't know, but I know that it was so powerful that they refused to release it to the public. I also know it was so powerful that we saw meetings at the White House where they convened among some of the most powerful people in the nation to figure out what to do about this thing. And now we learned that someone accessed it, I guess, and it was unauthorized. I can't tell how much of this is real and how important it really is. So that's why I have you. What do you make of this?

[Sherry Davidoff]

Well, I mean, this is something we've been expecting from day one. They say three can keep a secret if two of them are dead. Mythos Preview has been released to over 40 tech companies and Lord knows how many people at those tech companies. So from day one, I'm sure there was unauthorized access. The question is, who is accessing it when they shouldn't be? Is it just people at that. At those companies? Is it someone who has wormed their way in from the outside and has actually hacked in? But honestly, the part that I didn't expect was that we would actually hear about it. So bravo to Anthropic for investigating and for whoever it is that figured this out and has started to publicize it.

[Ed Elson]

Well, it was. It wasn't them. It was. It was Bloomberg. It was the reporters over at Bloomberg who figured this out. I mean, I guess if we could just go back a little bit. From my understanding, Mythos, the problem with Mythos is that it can basically hack any cybersecurity infrastructure anywhere in the world. And you are an expert in cybersecurity, so could you just take us through? Like, what is the danger of Mythos, exactly? And how powerful is it? What are the capabilities?

[Sherry Davidoff]

Sure. Mythos is completely changing the security risk landscape right now. I was just saying to somebody, I have been in this industry for 25 years, and I have never seen something that completely altered the security landscape to this extent. So absolutely, we need to be paying attention, and it is very serious. The capabilities of Mythos Preview, according to Anthropic and those that have used it are. It's basically like a hacking ray. You can point it out at software, and even if you don't have the source code, it can still detect vulnerabilities and write code that will exploit it. So a human doesn't need to do anything to break into that software. And that means that already researchers have discovered thousands upon thousands of bugs, and there are working exploits to go with that. So what that means is that literally anyone who has access to this could potentially just point it at wherever they want and break into that system before the vendor has a chance to even think about patching it. And so there are some defensive measures that we all need to be taking right now. And the goal by releasing it to some tech companies was hopefully to give them a leg up. But let's be honest, that's a lot of people that have access, and when that many people have access, it's gonna get abused.

[Ed Elson]

So are you concerned that this will get into the wrong people's hands? It sounds like your view right now is that people who aren't supposed to have it have it. But since we haven't seen a mass data breach, or at least something that is extremely concerning yet, then it's not a problem yet.

[Sherry Davidoff]

Well, first of all, unauthorized access is absolutely inevitable when this many organizations already have access. And I've actually been wondering, for those companies that do have access, how are they being vetted? How are their security procedures being reviewed? How are they limiting this access? Because there's only so much you can do to secure any one company. But I'm hoping that Anthropic is maybe vetting them in this process. The challenge is you have to weigh that with the desperate need for these companies to start patching bugs. When you think about it, some of this software is used on millions and millions of systems. Whether it's antivirus software or operating systems or systems in the cloud. And so when, not if, an adversary is able to find an excellent exploit, these vulnerabilities, it's going to have a massive impact and we need to give these tech companies a leg up.

[Ed Elson]

So what does it mean for some of the largest tech companies? I mean, these are big names in the world of markets. Companies like Cloudflare and Crowdstrike, all of these cybersecurity firms. What does this actually mean for them? I can't. I think, I guess this is a debate whether it's a bad thing or perhaps even a good thing, because I guess now you need cybersecurity more than ever.

[Sherry Davidoff]

Well, in the long term, it means we're going to completely change how we manage software vulnerabilities, because up until this point, at least in theory, you find out about a vulnerability, you work really hard, you patch it, maybe it'll take a few weeks, maybe it'll take a few months, and you hope that the bad guys don't manage to figure out the same thing and exploit it first. Right. So we've had that lag. And now I'm sure this is a complete emergency for all the major tech companies. And honestly, I'm concerned about every organization in the software supply chain because frankly, your small businesses, your smaller suppliers also need access to this to patch their bugs as well. So I'm sure they're scrambling, they're trying to figure out how on earth are they going to patch these thousands of vulnerabilities, how are they going to prioritize? They've got to be using AI to help counteract this. But AI can also introduce bugs. My guess is right now they're scrambling to work on the system to make it so they can patch things faster than we've ever been able to before. And we're going to need to be shifting to more continued is software updates instead of like, oh, you get an update once a month or something like that.

[Ed Elson]

Do you think the government should have a role in this? I mean, some people have made the comparison of AI to things like nuclear bombs. And I mean, I'm not sure if that's the analogy to be making, but I think you can compare it to a weapon at least.

[Sherry Davidoff]

That's very insightful, Ed. And when I first heard about this, I thought it reminds me of the cyber disarmament movement, where there was talk, talk that like the CIA and the NSA were stockpiling vulnerabilities, and that creates risk for everybody. And certainly AI with these capabilities creates risk for everybody as well. And so one of my questions is, what other companies beyond anthropic have access to these capabilities? They may not be the only ones that have invented an AI that is capable of doing this. And so where I see the government potentially being involved is maybe setting some standards for disclosure. If you have an AI that has certain capabilities, do we need to track that? Do we need to notify anybody? And how is this going to be coordinated?

[Ed Elson]

Right. Do you think that, I mean, some would say or I think some people think or suspect that maybe it's all being overhyped, that part of this is sort of like a fear mongering marketing tactic to say, look how powerful, look how scary our technology is to kind of get investors excited about, wow, this is going to be really transformative. And, and I guess it's sort of tough to understand because I think that's a pretty compelling point. Like it would make sense for anthropic to say, look how crazy and bad this is and get a lot of headlines and generate a lot of heat. And then people like you and I come on podcasts and we talk about it. But then at the same time, it also seems very dangerous and frankly stupid to just assume that it's marketing and sort of COVID our eyes and say, no, this isn't gonna be a problem. Because it could very well be a problem, I guess. Where do you stand on this? Like, to what extent is this hype and fear mongering to get everyone kind of excited and also scared versus no, this is very legitimate and we actually should be scared.

[Sherry Davidoff]

Yeah, I wish I thought it was hype, but I myself have been using Claude code. I've been looking at the capabilities of Opus. Last year I actually did a research project with my colleague Matt Duran and we research the dark web and looked at tools like Worm GBT and Fraud GPT that were already pretty darn good at finding vulnerabilities and writing exploits without all of the ethical guardrails that we have on legitimate tools. So absolutely, I think that there are some real capabilities here. I do think that the future will be different than any of us are predicting. The other thing to remember in security is that frankly, cybercriminals have had the ability to get into most organizations for a long, long time. And it doesn't always mean there's some disaster that comes out of it. The same thing is it's possible to burn down a building. That doesn't mean all buildings will burn down. Even adversaries have limited resources. And so there's always going to be that balance. But yes, absolutely, this is a huge change to the cyber risk landscape. I'm sure Anthropic is capitalizing on that. They put out a press release. I also suspect that there are probably many other organizations and groups that have similar capabilities that are not putting out press releases. But we should absolutely be concerned.

[Ed Elson]

Do you think that China, this is the kind of thing that China would be focused on, or Russia or any other perhaps Iran? I mean, to what extent is this like a real national security risk?

[Sherry Davidoff]

Well, I'm wondering if China already has capabilities approaching this. If not, I'm sure they're trying to get their hands on it. Same thing with Russia and other nation states and organized crime groups. I also thought about when Tesla was almost hacked. This was several years ago and I don't know if you caught this news, but Russian agents tried to bribe a Tesla employee into installing malware on Tesla's network and they offered this employee $1 million. And amazingly that employee turned around and reported this. But what if the bad guys offered any employee at one of these 40 tech companies a million bucks? You know, is somebody going to take them up on it and say, oh yeah, you come into my computer and access it. So we really need to be thinking about how our nation state's going to get these capabilities if they don't already have them.

[Ed Elson]

Really good point. Sherry Davidoff, Founder of LMG Security, co host of the Cyberside Chats podcast. Sherry, appreciate your time. Thank you.

[Sherry Davidoff]

Thanks Ed.

[Ed Elson]

After the break, a breakdown of Tesla's earnings. And by the way, we are heading out on tour at the end of May. So for more info and to get your tickets head to profgmarketstor.com can't wait to see you.

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[Ed Elson]

We're back with Prof. G Markets. Tesla reported first quarter earnings yesterday that largely beat analyst expectations. Revenue rose 16% year over year, with both cash flow and profit coming in ahead of estimates. The company also signaled that vehicle demand is picking back up. That said, not everything was strong. Q1 deliveries came in below expectations. Nonetheless, the stock rose as much as 5% after hours. So here to help us break down Tesla's first quarter, we are speaking with Seth Goldstein, senior equity Analyst at Morningstar. Seth, thank you for joining us on the show here. Better than expected? Pretty much stock rising 5% after hours. Let's just start with your top line reactions to these earnings.

[Seth Goldstein]

Yeah, so we knew deliveries was only up 6%, which did come in below consensus from the report at the start of April. But I think what the stock was up and reacting to were positive business developments and namely positive free cash flow in the first quarter of 2026. With Tesla starting a heavy expenditure program, at least 20 billion, if not higher, to fund its transition to an AI and robotics company. I think the market was worried coming into 2026 of where would that cash come from? And test, could Tesla still generate strong free cash flow or even some positive free cash flow while that program is ramping up? And so positive free cash flow in the first quarter puts them to a good start to the year. And then if we look operationally at the businesses, Tesla was able to launch its robot see in two new markets by the by April, where we see them starting in Dallas and Houston. And interestingly, they're launching immediately into the unsupervised robo taxi. So if you remember when they started in Austin, there was a human safety monitor who would ride in the front passenger seat of the vehicle. But with the Dallas and Houston launches, they're going directly to no safety monitor. Which tells me that the software is progressing well, testing is going well enough to enter new markets and immediately not need the safety monitor. And then if we look at factory expansion plans, the transition to take the factory that was making the Model S and Model X vehicles and take that to produce the Optimus humanoid robots is still on track for to enter production by the end of this year. And so, you know, with Tesla's two big pillars in the future going to be self driving cars and humanoid robots, both of those initiatives are on track with the positive free cash flow and that led the stock to rise after hours.

[Ed Elson]

That does sound pretty good. I guess. Let's just start with the Robotaxi for a moment. I mean, it seems that we're on a better path. But if you look at the Robotaxi over the past year or two years and you compare it to the growth of a Waymo, for example, the fact that we're just getting to having actual robo taxis, as in there isn't someone sitting there monitoring the thing in the driver's seat that is basically a driver, it seems that this has been largely a failure so far. But it sounds like what we're learning is that actually they are kind of getting there. I mean, there have also been some reports that they've Only launched one vehicle per city here, which seems a little bit concerning. I guess what you're hearing from me is a skepticism about the Tesla Robotaxi program, which I feel like has been hyped for a very, very long time. And I always feel like, oh, it's about to get good. They're finally figuring it out, they're finally launching and then we come back like a quarter later or even a year later and it's like we're in the same situation we were. So I guess tell me a little bit more about the Robotaxi, because I still feel skeptical.

[Seth Goldstein]

Well, the Robotaxi has been a year away for most of the past decade and so I understand the reason for the skepticism. But we're seeing tangible progress now where the Robotaxi is launching a service with, with no human safety monitors in the vehicles in three cities in Texas, with plans to expand to five more cities in over this coming quarter. And so we're actually seeing progress. But Tesla wants to go intentionally very slow here. Like we saw Waymo go very slow for years at first because nobody wants to a repeat of the cruise incident where the vehicle injured someone and then all cruise operations were, were paused indefinitely. So I think Tesla's intentionally going SL and we're going to see them grow in new cities. But they want to be confident in the technology, confident that the software can handle all of the edge cases that you might see while doing a robo taxi trip so that they can progress in a safe manner. And so we do have real revenue, we have real operations in three cities. But I expect it to be a very slow pace of ramp. But then if we look, you know, three, four, five years down the road, then all of a sudden I think we'll start to see, you know, the vision for the future where we see many Tesla robo taxis throughout cities, probably mostly in the southern part of the US still, but, but being able to be a full ride hailing participant, not just in this sort of early testing phase that they're in today.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, let's talk about sales or deliveries as well before we get to the humanoids. So as we mentioned, missed expectations on deliveries, but we already knew that because they had already reported it before. They produced 50,000 more vehicles than they delivered this quarter. Largest gap in their history. I mean, I'm still someone that views Tesla as a car company, at least that's what it is right now. They haven't launched these other businesses yet. And the car business does seem to be deteriorating. That does seem to be concerning what do you make of the sales of the vehicles this quarter?

[Seth Goldstein]

Well, sales were still up 6% year over year. And so while it did miss consensus, it auto still grew at the end of the day and we did see solid Profit margins over 20% if you include the regulatory credits, 19% if you exclude the credits. And that still tells me that that's a strong business. We also saw full self driving subscriptions grow, another over 100,000 subscriptions added during the quarter. So that tells me there's consumer enthusiasm for full self driving. Subscript. Even though it's still a level 2 product today, it can still make for an easier driving experience. And that's an additional revenue stream for Tesla. We're also seeing insurance grow. And so Tesla's plan for their vehicles was not only to sell the car, but then also to have these other recurring revenue streams that consumers would buy with the vehicles, namely the autonomous driving software, insurance in some US states and charging all over. And, and this plan seems to be going well. And so yes, Tesla today autos is still the biggest business, and I think it will be for a number of years, but we're still seeing a decent automotive result even if the deliveries came in below expectations. And I'll note one other thing. We did see about 50,000 or so Model 3 Model Ys produce more than they delivered. But they just recently got approval in the European Union by the Dutch regulator to launch full self driving software, which I think differentiates Tesla. And without that, Tesla in Europe is just another EV company. And right now in Europe there are many long range EVs at a similar or cheaper price point for consumers to choose from. So it's no longer that Tesla is the only choice for a long range affordable ev. And as we see the Dutch regulators approved FSD throughout the next one to two quarters, we're likely to see the entire European Union and multiple countries approve full self driving, which I think will really boost deliveries. And so Tesla could have been producing more in anticipation that they were going to see increased demand. Just like we saw in China last year where deliveries were falling to start the year, but then full self driving was approved and we saw deliveries immediately improve once consumers could buy that software.

[Ed Elson]

Yeah, it's, I mean hearing it makes me see feel a little bit more optimistic about the prospects. I think the question is kind of going to be for Tesla, can they come back, especially in Europe, from this massive slump that we did see in sales where everyone basically just turned against Tesla as a company essentially because of Elon just Looking at the valuation here. So Tesla's trading at 185 times forward earnings. It's the most expensive stock in the Mag 7 by far. The next most expensive is Apple at the moment trading at 30 times forward earnings. How do you justify that? And is it basically just humanoid robot expectations?

[Seth Goldstein]

Yes. Well, Tesla's in the midst of trying to transition its business from selling cars, which tend to be lower margin, to selling autonomous driving software, which is high margin, and humanoid robots that would also be accompanied with a software like recurring revenue stream. And so if Tesla's successful, they're going to enter from a lower margin business, cars and batteries, to a higher margin business, mostly subscription software. And that would generate strong free cash flow and strong earnings growth over time. And at the current valuation, the market is giving them a lot of credit for successfully being able to transition into these new business lines. I think Elon Musk's ability to make what seem to be impossible inventions, a cool long range EV that's affordable or rockets that can land themselves, as we see with SpaceX, investors are giving him credit for these new ventures as well. And as we're seeing tangible progress with things like Robotaxi testing, launches in multiple cities, and the Optimus robot moving from testing to now starting a dedicated production line, I think investors are taking these signals as a sign Tesla will be successful. And the stock price reflects this future Tesla transitioning to these higher margins businesses.

[Ed Elson]

What do you make of the valuation? Do you think it makes sense?

[Seth Goldstein]

We have a fair value estimate of $400, so we think the stock's fairly valued. We do think Tesla will be successful in transitioning. You know, we, we were skeptical of the Robotaxi rollout. We thought it would take longer than, than management was saying. And you know, we had years of data of, of management saying it'll be ready next year, it'll be ready next year. And we, we didn't see it. And yet, yet when, when Tesla was able to move to no safety monitors in Austin in just, you know, less than a year after launching the Robotaxi service, that really gave us confidence that this isn't just management hyping up the business, that the software is actually working. Which for Tesla, that's going to be the ultimate question. Does the software work? Can it make cars drive themselves? Can it make humanoid robots perform tasks that, that you can replace a human with to be valuable enough that both companies and potentially consumers would want to buy one to be useful, not just to be sort of a gadget or a toy. And if Tesla's successful. If the software works, then it's going to be a very high margin free cash flow stream that's coming. So we think the stock's about fairly valued. We don't think it's a screaming buy. But if you think that Tesla will be successful in these new ventures, then the stock is not overly valued or underly valued. We think is trading at about a fair price.

[Ed Elson]

I have one last question about SpaceX. Obviously SpaceX is planning to IPO going to go public at close to a $2 trillion valuation, which is going to be remarkable. And I have a theory or a hunch that this might be a bad thing for Tesla because Tesla seems to be the vehicle that investors sort of pour their excitement and hopes and dreams about what Elon can do for the future and for the future of the economy. They put all into Tesla and that's why you see that extraordinary multiple. And I wonder if SpaceX sucks that energy out of the stock and that becomes the vehicle for Elon Musk and your excitement about him as an entrepreneur. What do you make of that and how do you think SpaceX could affect Tesla stock, if at all?

[Seth Goldstein]

Well, I think that SpaceX offers investors a second Elon Musk growth of the future platform and I think there's going to be a lot of institutional and retail excitement for both. I don't necessarily see a lot of people trading their entire Tesla stake for a SpaceX stake. I would think institutional portfolio managers might trim multiple companies to make room for SpaceX. As we're seeing, SpaceX will likely enter all the major indices fairly quickly after the ipo. And I think for retail investors who are going to be allocated what appears to be a decent portion of shares, I think they will hold both Tesla and SpaceX shares. You know, for, for space going to be doing a lot of cool, futuristic, potentially trying to make something like data centers in space a reality and trying to build a base on the moon and explore interplanetary travel. That's the long term version for SpaceX. Tesla is going to be a key supplier for SpaceX to make that happen. If you believe in SpaceX's mission that they can be successful, they're going to need Tesla solar panels, Tesla batteries. They already are a major buyer of things like Tesla cybertrucks for work trucks and they would need the Optimus robots to likely make the data center work and be able to run some space operations in space, which I think could be a good use case for Optimus. If, if, you know, we see Elon Musk continue to integrate the businesses operationally. And so I think for investors, you know, there's going to be a lot of excitement and enthusiasm for both what SpaceX is doing, but where Tesla's going as well. And as we see the two businesses continue to work together, I think investors would be, you know, willing hold both. So I don't necessarily see this sort of sell all your Tesla to buy SpaceX just because that became public.

[Ed Elson]

All right, Seth Goldstein, senior equity Analyst at Morningstar. Seth, appreciate your time. Thank you. A quick update on Iran before we go. First off, let's recognize the extension of the ceasefire. Two days ago, go before the deadline of the original ceasefire, Trump announced he was extending it. He said the ceasefire would continue until, quote, discussions are concluded. And this is also what we discussed with Professor Justin Wolfers as well. However, just after that, we heard a rebuke from Iran, specifically from an Iranian official who said that the ceasefire extension, quote, means nothing, which obviously confused things. But at the same time, it was also kind of fair because just a few days earlier, during the original ceasefire, we witnessed footage of a US Navy destroyer firing weapons at an Iranian container ship, which was clearly a violation of the ceasefire. And that was in addition to the US blockade on Iran, which Iran had explicitly said was also a violation of the ceasefire. And in addition to Israel's attacks on Lebanon, which Iran had also said was a violation of the ceasefire. And in addition to addition to Iran's own attacks on U.S. ships during the ceasefire, which was of course a violation of the ceasefire. In other words, the original ceasefire wasn't actually a ceasefire. So to extend, it doesn't actually mean anything because there was no ceasefire to begin with. So as Iran said, yes, it means nothing. And we already have proof of this. This because just yesterday we learned that Iran attacked another three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. They fired at one ship that was passing just off the coast of Iran, and then another two that were in the Gulf of Oman. So there you have it. It does indeed mean nothing. So let's go back to markets for a moment. The conventional wisdom among investors is that over the past few weeks, things in Iran have started to get better, things have changed. Perhaps this war might be just about coming to an end. That is the consensus, at least. And as a result, markets have ripped back up and we are now looking at all time highs. But in light of my previous point, I will propose the following question to Wall Street. What exactly has changed? And that is a genuine question, because the way I see it, Nothing has changed. We're still at war with Iran. Now approaching two months, we said we had a ceasefire, but in reality, no, it wasn't a ceasefire. We then said that we had an extension, but of course there was no extension. We said oil markets would calm down, but they remain very volatile. Prices remain around $100 a barrel. We also said gas prices would come down, but they haven't. Gas is still more than $4 a gallon. It is still up 35% since the start of the war. Put another way, I look at our situation and I don't see anything different. In fact, the only thing that seems to have changed here is our tolerance for this war. I mean, two months ago, if I told you what I just told you, you would have seen said, that's insane. But we've now been at this for long enough that we are now starting to normalize it. The philosophy is war is war, Iran is Iran. This is what happens. And as I said on Monday, I believe that that is the overwhelming sentiment that is driving markets continually higher. We are entering the next chapter of the story, which we ought to call call news fatigue, where the headlines become overwhelming, the news becomes confusing, and eventually we get bored of it and we decide to stop caring altogether. This is what happened with Iraq. It's also what happened with Afghanistan, and it is now happening with Iran. And we are seeing that reflected in the markets. Despite the fact that we are in the same place we were a week ago ago and that we were a month ago and that we were now two months ago. We have decided for our own sanity that things are improving or at least that things don't really matter anymore. That is the consensus that things have changed. But if you look at the price of oil and you look at the price of gas and you look ahead to the price of everything else, I think the economy is about to tell us a hard truth. They haven't. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Joel Patterson and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen o' Donoghue and Mia Silverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Profferty Markets from Proftie Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. And tune in tomorrow for our conversation with Andrew Yang.

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