Prof G Markets – "Unemployment Climbs to a Four-Year High"

Date: December 17, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson (C) & Scott Galloway (A)
Guest Experts:

• Catherine Ann Edwards (A), Labor Economist & Host of Optimist Economy Podcast
• John McNeil (B), CEO of DVX Ventures, Board Member at GM, former Tesla President & Lyft COO

Episode Overview

This episode addresses concerning economic news: U.S. unemployment has climbed to its highest rate since September 2020 (4.6%). The discussion focuses on what is driving the uptick in joblessness, the nuanced state of the labor market, and how economic and policy uncertainties are affecting hiring. The hosts and guests also pivot to the disruptions in the electric vehicle (EV) sector—spotlighting Ford’s EV retrenchment, Tesla’s driverless advances, and the global auto race. Finally, the episode explores TikTok Shop’s meteoric rise as a force in U.S. retail.

1. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. U.S. Labor Market Slowdown & Rising Unemployment

Jobs Report Analysis

• Unemployment Rate: Rose to 4.6%, a four-year high
  • Indicator of trouble as it’s climbed steadily throughout 2025
• Jobs Added: Only 64,000 in November, despite economist expectations
• October Data Revised Down: The economy actually lost 105,000 jobs in October
• Wage Growth: Slowed to its weakest pace since 2021

“An unemployment rate continuing to rise is not good. The fact that it’s been trending upward for about six months, three, consistently is not good... the unemployment rate is a very clear indicator.”
— Catherine Ann Edwards, 04:23

Why Is Unemployment Rising?

• Root Cause: Not Enough Hiring
  • Job creation lags behind the number seeking work; especially for “re-entrants” (those returning after time out)
  • It’s not just a “young people” problem; it’s economy-wide
• Elevated Uncertainty:
  • Firms are hesitant to expand due to unpredictability from
    • AI impact
    • Tariffs and trade policy
    • Lingering effects from previous interest rate hikes
    • Political and economic shifts (including immigration and workforce raids)

“Uncertainty... firms on the whole do not have a stable enough footing to feel like they could rapidly expand.”
— Catherine Ann Edwards, 07:12

• Layoffs vs. Attrition:
  • More companies are letting headcount naturally decline, not outright mass layoffs

Interpreting the Stats

• The stats don’t lie—fundamentals show broad negative momentum:
  • Unemployment is up, jobs added are down, negative signals in sectors (hours worked, part-time for economic reasons).
  • Some noise may come from data delays due to government shutdowns but the trend is negative.

“This report has everything moving in the wrong direction.”
— Catherine Ann Edwards, 11:52

• Sector Performances:
  • Manufacturing: Lost another 5,000 jobs, counter to policy aims
  • Healthcare: Added 46,000 jobs—remains the main growth engine
  • Leisure & Hospitality: Weak, notable for being cyclical and indicating consumer pullback

“As you start to see [leisure and hospitality] pull back, that’s for me an indicator of broader problems... there’s not a lot of room at the edges.”
— Catherine Ann Edwards, 14:07

Looking Ahead to 2026

• Psychological Triggers:
  • The unemployment rate nearing 5% is a recession signal to many
  • January may bring restructuring, layoffs as companies “get real” in the new year

“I would assume if there is a spike in layoffs, they happen at the start of the year… New year, new you—that applies for firms as well.”
— Catherine Ann Edwards, 16:05

B. The Electric Vehicle Industry in Flux

Ford’s Pullback [21:00]

• Headline: Ford is taking a $20B charge to scale back EV ambitions, shift focus back to gas/hybrid vehicles, and delay EV profitability until 2029.
• Stock Reaction: Rose 1% on news.

Causes of Ford’s Struggles

• Macro:
  • Auto industry is subject to long-term, expensive, policy-driven cycles
  • Fluctuating policies every four years create “substantial cost to investors”
• Micro:
  • Ford’s F-150 Lightning was not compelling enough (insufficient range, esp. under towing)
  • Lesson: Need excellent product to win in new segments; can’t compete with a mediocre EV.

“If you come into a new market with mediocre product, you’re gonna get your head handed to you. And that’s sort of what happened to the F150 Lightning.”
— John McNeil, 22:10

State of EV Demand

• Global vs. U.S.:
  • Globally: 1 in 5 cars sold in 2025 is electric; this will become 1 in 4 next year.
  • U.S.: Demand is softer, maybe only 5-6% of new cars are electric (down from 8%)
  • Future: Spring 2026 will reveal truer “normalized” U.S. demand

“What is happening globally is a pretty strong signal to what is happening with EV demand globally.”
— John McNeil, 24:36

Tesla’s Robo Taxi Hype [26:27]

• Tesla: Announced driverless Robo Taxi tests in Austin. Stock hit a new high on the news.
• Context:
  • News is a bigger deal for Tesla’s narrative than actual deployment
  • Waymo and Chinese firms are already at scale; Tesla is behind in regulatory transparency (“end-to-end models” make it hard to audit/fix failures).

“Tesla’s sort of a meme stock. If you can keep pumping the retail investor with tidbits of news, it seems to work... but in the grand scheme, one car on the road seems like a non-event.”
— John McNeil, 27:28

Who's Winning the Auto Race? [29:04]

• Short-Term (2026):
  • Winners are those with fresh, attractive product lines—Toyota, GM, Hyundai.
  • Losers: Honda, Nissan, Stellantis, Ford (“challenged, lack refreshed lineups”)
• Long-Term (2030+):
  • AV (autonomous vehicles) will be existential—only those who can deliver autonomy will survive, both in private and robotaxi markets.

“If you’re non-autonomous, you won’t survive... We’re all going to move to that product.”
— John McNeil, 29:46

U.S. vs. China: Autonomy Race [31:43]

• China is Winning: Subsidized or not, Chinese firms have cheaper, more advanced autonomy.
  • U.S. must boost support for AV and AI industries to catch up.

“China’s winning right now... The autonomy race is also an AI race. It’s one of the hardest problems in AI.”
— John McNeil, 31:50

C. TikTok Shop: The Next E-Commerce Giant? [32:40]

• Growth Numbers:
  • TikTok Shop now processes $70B globally in gross merchandise volume, $15B in the U.S.—outpacing Target, Home Depot, Etsy combined.
• Drivers:
  • Massive Gen Z engagement (4+ hours per day), high trust in influencers
  • “Shop as you scroll” drives instant, influencer-powered purchases
• Business Impact:
  • On track to rival Shopify, even Amazon, as a U.S. retail platform
  • U.S. TikTok Shop sale ($14B) suddenly looks cheap versus its scale and value
• Key Takeaway:
  • TikTok is reshaping not just social media but commerce itself.

“TikTok isn’t just changing the way we consume media... It’s actually changing the way we transact.”
— Ed Elson, 32:40

2. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “My initial reaction is, that's not good. An unemployment rate continuing to rise is not good…The fact that the unemployment rate is going up is a very clear indicator that for whatever the jobs numbers that we've been posting, they aren't enough.”
  — Catherine Ann Edwards, 04:23

• “Uncertainty that's caused by any one of those things...it really comes down to policy and economic uncertainty.”
  — Catherine Ann Edwards, 07:12

• “This report has everything moving in the wrong direction.”
  — Catherine Ann Edwards, 11:52

• “If you come into a new market with mediocre product, you’re gonna get your head handed to you.”
  — John McNeil, 22:10

• “Tesla’s sort of a meme stock. If you can keep pumping the retail investor with tidbits of news, it seems to work…but one car on the road sort of seems like a non event.”
  — John McNeil, 27:28

• “If you’re non-autonomous, you won’t survive… It’s a little bit like moving from flip phones to smartphones and it will happen rapidly.”
  — John McNeil, 29:46

• “TikTok isn’t just changing the way we consume media now. It's actually changing the way we transact.”
  — Ed Elson, 32:40

3. Timestamps for Major Segments

• Labor market update & jobs report deep dive – 02:26–17:26

  • Reaction to unemployment: 04:04
  • Drivers of unemployment, discussion on sector dynamics: 05:05–14:07
  • 2026 outlook: 15:42–17:26

• EV Industry Disruption & Ford’s Pullback – 21:00–32:29

  • Ford analysis: 22:00
  • State of EV demand: 24:36
  • Tesla Robo Taxi: 26:27
  • Winners & Losers in auto: 29:04
  • U.S. vs China on autonomy: 31:43

• TikTok Shop’s E-Commerce Ascent – 32:40–End

4. Tone & Language

The hosts maintain a candid, inquisitive, but pragmatic tone throughout. Ed Elson’s questions push for clarity without sensationalism; expert guests offer nuanced, fact-driven analysis. Language is direct, accessible, and occasionally laced with dry humor or mild skepticism, especially around policy "spin" and market hype.

5. Takeaways for Listeners

• The U.S. labor market is flashing yellow—hiring is insufficient, and uncertainty (policy and political) is weighing on business confidence.
• The EV sector is bifurcating: global demand is robust, but U.S. firms (Ford) are faltering on both execution and strategic adaptation.
• The future of cars is not just electric, but autonomous, and China has the current edge.
• TikTok is rapidly becoming a commerce powerhouse, with implications for the future of U.S. retail beyond social media.

For listeners seeking a clear-eyed, data-rich scan of economic and tech trends, this episode delivers with depth and wit.