Prof G Markets: U.S. Takes 10% Stake in Intel, Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech + OnlyFans’ $7B Boom

Date: August 26, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson, with featured guest Prof. Justin Wolfers (Economist, University of Michigan), Aditya Bhave (Senior US Economist, Bank of America Global Research)
Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Overview

This episode breaks down three major market stories:

• The U.S. government's unprecedented 10% stake in Intel
• Jerome Powell’s pivotal Jackson Hole speech and the Fed’s next move on interest rates
• OnlyFans' record-shattering $7 billion revenue and the societal implications of its growth

Expect sharp, candid analysis from Ed Elson and guests, blending deep economic insight with the show’s signature irreverent tone.

U.S. Government Takes 10% Stake in Intel

[01:54–18:12]

Key Discussion Points

• Major Move: President Trump announces the government’s $9B purchase of a 10% stake in Intel, becoming its largest shareholder, though with no board seat or formal governance rights.
  • “That makes Washington the chip maker's largest shareholder, though it won't have a board seat or any governance rights. Apparently intel shares jumped more than 6% on this news.” — Ed Elson [02:37]
• Market Reactions & Comparisons: Speculation that Intel will receive favorable government treatment spurs optimism in stock price.
• Historical Parallels: U.S. government has intervened in industries before (railroads in WWI, steel in 1950s, Fannie/Freddie in 2008), but always in response to crisis—not so in this case.
• Prof. Justin Wolfers’ Economic Dissection:
  • Moves the debate to whether this is genuine industrial policy or political grandstanding.
  • Memorable Quote: “What the federal government has done is... taking a bunch of stock certificates... and moving them from one safe to another safe stored at the Federal Treasury. That's it. Nothing's changed.” — Justin Wolfers [07:16]
  • Wolfers casts doubt on the policy’s logic: “I cannot think of a single problem that is solved by the relocation of stock certificates.” — [08:54]
• Debate on Motives:
  • Elson wonders about backroom benefits: “Now those stocks... are perhaps subject to preferential and special treatment. Why? Because the government owns it now.” — Ed Elson [09:50]
  • Wolfers speculates on possible outcomes: government strong-arming procurement or using leverage to help Intel, despite public claims of being a passive investor.
  • “Do you want the White House deciding what sort of chip will be in your next computer? Or... would you like to use intel or another great American company, amd, who are not getting this special government interest?” — Justin Wolfers [12:56]
• Sovereign Wealth Fund Angle & Precedent:
  • Kevin Hassett (clip) signals intent for more of these transactions as part of building a sovereign wealth fund.
    “The President has made it clear all the way back to the campaign that he thinks that... it would be great if the US could start to build up a sovereign wealth fund.” — Kevin Hassett [13:55]
  • Wolfers strongly critiques: “If we’re creating a pile of money for the President to buy stock with, that must mean over here, we’re borrowing more. So my advice to my friends, if you don’t have a lot of money to lose, don’t go into debt to gamble.” — [16:37]
• Political Irony:
  • Both hosts highlight the irony of a Republican administration nationalizing industry—a playbook associated with “the CCP” and not U.S. free-market tradition.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Wolfers refuses to have ‘fun’ with the historical irony, focusing on the dry economics:
  • “So if you believe what they're saying they're doing, nothing helpful for anyone. So you and I now are left with a game of if they're only lying in this part or this part or this part, what does it all mean?” — Justin Wolfers [12:16]
• On the interventionist trend:
  • “Are we on the way to interventionism? Absolutely, yes. We're already there.” — Justin Wolfers [15:01]
• Cynicism on the administration’s competence and intentions:
  • “I don’t have a great deal of faith that the White House is a great set of stock pickers.” — Justin Wolfers [17:39]

Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech & Federal Reserve Outlook

[21:51–28:05]

Key Discussion Points

• Powell’s Speech:
  • Gave a dovish signal: moving closer to possible rate cuts, but stopped short of a firm commitment.
  • Quote: “The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” — Jerome Powell (quoted by Ed Elson) [22:05]
• Hidden Drama: Focus of the speech was strictly apolitical; Powell sidestepped tensions with President Trump and ongoing Fed board controversies.
  • “You would never have known that this is the guy who was getting absolutely berated on a week to week basis by the Commander in Chief.” — Ed Elson [23:09]
• Market Impact:
  • Rate cut probabilities for September soared from 73% to 85% post-speech.
• Expert Analysis with Aditya Bhave (Bank of America):
  • Powell’s “dovish” tone means data needs to get much stronger to avoid a rate cut.
  • Predicts that if the Fed cuts, it likely won’t be a one-off (potentially 50bps or more).
  • Market risk: premature cut if the economy reaccelerates could be seen as a “policy error.”
  • “If the long end sells off, they've wasted ammunition and they've basically achieved nothing, which is kind of what happened with the cuts last year.” — Aditya Bhave [26:57]
  • Emphasizes: the Fed should only cut with “decisive evidence that inflation is headed back towards 2% unless the labor market is showing signs of a recession.” [27:19]
• Ed Elson’s Take:
  • Reminds listeners that Powell is “data-dependent” above all else, not politically motivated.
  • “Despite what people wanna believe, this doesn't have anything to do with politics. This has nothing to do with Trump. ...This has everything to do with the data.” — Ed Elson [28:05]
  • Upcoming reports (Jobs on Sept 5, CPI on Sept 11) will determine the outcome.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the risk of political pressure being mistaken for policy change:
  • “I won't really get into the politics of this... Powell is really quite concerned, it seems, about the labor market.” — Aditya Bhave [26:11]

OnlyFans’ $7B Revenue and the Business of Loneliness

[28:05–36:53]

Key Discussion Points

• Unprecedented Scale & Efficiency:
  • 2024 gross revenue: $7B; net revenue: $1.5B; 90% revenue growth; 46 employees; 377 million user accounts.
  • “OnlyFans makes $30 to $35 million per employee. Unbelievable.” — Ed Elson [29:25]
  • Owner Leo Radvinsky received $700M in dividends—higher than any Fortune 500 CEO.
• Societal Impact:
  • The “business of loneliness”—OnlyFans’ growth mirrors spikes in male loneliness and decline in real-life relationships among young men.
  • “When we look back on the winners and losers of this era, we are going to bucket them into two categories. It'll be those who capitalized on loneliness and those who didn't. And there is no company in America that has capitalized on loneliness more aggressively and more effectively than OnlyFans.” — Ed Elson [33:55]
  • Highlights the difference vs. mainstream porn: OnlyFans sells “intimacy at scale.”
  • Staggering statistics on young men: 93% exposed to porn by age 13; 2/3 are regular consumers; 1 in 10 report addiction; dramatic increases in loneliness and social isolation.
• Prediction:
  • OnlyFans may become the defining company of the era.
  • Growth shows no signs of slowing as core social issues remain untouched: “2024 was a banner year for OnlyFans. And I'll end this show with a very easy prediction. 2025 is only gonna be better.” — Ed Elson [36:45]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On OnlyFans’ model:
  • “Not by selling ads... not by selling hardware, but by selling intimacy. At scale.” — Ed Elson [34:41]
• On societal implications:
  • “We are still an addicted and sexless and unprecedentedly lonely society. And as it stands, there is just nothing getting in the way of that.” — Ed Elson [35:56]

Timestamps: Quick Navigation

• U.S. Intel Stake Analysis: 01:54–18:12
• Discussion with Justin Wolfers: 06:40–18:11
• Jerome Powell/Jackson Hole Recap: 21:51–28:05
• Expert Commentary (Aditya Bhave): 24:40–28:05
• OnlyFans Segment: 28:05–36:53

Signature Quotes

• “I cannot think of a single problem that is solved by the relocation of stock certificates.”
  — Justin Wolfers [08:54]

• “Are we on the way to interventionism? Absolutely, yes. We're already there.”
  — Justin Wolfers [15:01]

• “OnlyFans makes $30 to $35 million per employee. Unbelievable.”
  — Ed Elson [29:25]

• “When we look back on the winners and losers of this era, we are going to bucket them into two categories. It'll be those who capitalized on loneliness and those who didn't.”
  — Ed Elson [33:55]

• “2024 was a banner year for OnlyFans. And I'll end this show with a very easy prediction. 2025 is only gonna be better.”
  — Ed Elson [36:45]

Bottom Line:
This episode delivers fierce, unsparing analysis of major market moves—casting a critical eye on government intervention, the Fed’s delicate tightrope, and the explosive, troubling success of OnlyFans. With real-time data, expert interviews, and a clear-eyed view of capitalism’s contradictions, Prof G Markets equips listeners to think—mercilessly—about money, policy, and society.