Loading summary
Transcript72 lines
- [00:01]
Ed
Support for the show comes from Odoo. Running a business takes everything you've got. And a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great at talking to each other. And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on. Enough of that. Now there is Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's O-. Support for the show comes from Hostinger. You might dream about launching the next big thing one day. Well, with Hostinger, you can turn that one day into day one. Hostinger is an all in one platform that brings everything into one place. Your domain, website, email marketing, AI tools and AI agents. And you can go live in minutes, not weeks. Go to hostinger.com theprofchee to bring your idea online for under $3 a month, plus get an extra 20 off with promo code TheProf G that's less than the price of a cup of coffee per month. That is hostinger.com theprofg promo code the Prof. G for an extra 20 off
- [01:24]
Scott
Adobe Acrobat, your new foundation. Use PDF spaces to generate a presentation. Grab your docs, your permits, your moves, AI levels of your pitch gets it
- [01:35]
Ed
in a choose a template with your timeless cool.
- [01:38]
Scott
Come on now, let's flex those two draft design, deliver, make it sing.
- [01:43]
Ed
AI builds the deck so you can build that thing.
- [01:47]
Scott
Do that, do that, do that with Acrobat.
- [01:50]
Ed
Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat.
- [02:19]
Scott
Dad joke or dick joke? Dad joke.
- [02:25]
Ed
I heard dad joke. That's my vote personally.
- [02:28]
Scott
What does a German say to your south by Southwest?
- [02:31]
Ed
What is it?
- [02:32]
Scott
Audi? So on my wedding night, you asked me, new bride says to me, I've got something really good and really bad news for you. And I said, okay. She said, oh my God, your dick is so much bigger than your brother's. All right.
- [03:10]
Ed
Live from the Vox Media podcast stage at south by Southwest, welcome to Prof. G. Marcus, everyone. The worst of it is over. Thank God. How are you doing, Scott?
- [03:24]
Scott
I'm a little insecure because you look very handsome. The whole blue linen thing, I don't like this. We did a tour around the lobby and of course everyone's like, hi, Ed. Hi, Ed. And like, asking if Ed's got a girlfriend. All these parents showing up, it's awful. By the way, I got really excited. There's a big line. I'm like, oh, that's so exciting. Then I found out it's for the audacity of joy. Next door, folks, no one's coming to save you. This whole therapy thing, they're the new supplements. Let me just summarize. The audacity of Joy. It's THC on Netflix. That's joy. All right. And Let me summarize. 20 years of therapy. Your parents did their best. Just don't be such fucking jerks, too. No one's coming to save you. And everything you think is trauma, there's a word for it. It's called life. Back to you, Ed.
- [04:14]
Ed
Impeccable start. We're making fun of other shows. We're feeling depressed. I love it. Okay, so today we're discussing some slightly heavy news, because we have to. Today we're discussing Iran wars, the Iran war's impact on global markets. We're also discussing the future of AI according to the leaders of AI and we will also have some time for some audience questions at the end. But first, Scott, let's get into the episode.
- [04:41]
Scott
Good enough. All right, today's number. How am I doing so far? Today's number 15. That's how many venomous snake species live in Texas. Wow, Ben, I should have done the dick joke. Anyways, welcome. Welcome to Propg Markets. We're here in the great state of Texas at South by Southwest. Ed, how are you? Welcome to Texas.
- [05:12]
Ed
I'm doing very well.
- [05:13]
Scott
You're doing great. You're looking good.
- [05:14]
Ed
Got the cowboy hat on. I'm probably going to take it off when we start to talk about Iran. But for now, I'm going to rock it. I'm going to rock it while I can.
- [05:23]
Scott
I like it.
- [05:24]
Ed
And I loved the horse head. How did that feel?
- [05:27]
Scott
I felt like I was going to slip and break a hip. And I thought that everyone is generous with my dignity. Everyone's. Everyone thought it was a great idea for me to wear a horse head.
- [05:35]
Ed
We did.
- [05:36]
Scott
It's nice at 51 to be doing, like, pimping yourself for social media. 61.
- [05:42]
Ed
All right, well, I'm going to get us started here because we don't have all the time in the world. So we're going to start with our first story. The war with Iran has changed the global landscape in a very short time, and it appears there is no end in sight. On Friday, when asked when the war would be over, President Trump said, quote, when I feel it, feel it in my bones. And now investors must reckon with the new reality of war in America. Stocks are selling off, but not as much as other nations. European stocks, for example, have fallen 5% since the US struck Iran. Japanese stocks have fallen 8%, South Korean stocks 13%. And so if the markets are any signal of what is to come, it would appear that the economic damage of this war might be felt most acutely outside of the US which raises many questions for both investors and governments alike. So, Scott, one of the big themes that we were discussing over the course of last year was this potential rotation out of America in the global markets. It really started with tariffs. Then it seemed to continue as Davos occurred and as we sort of launched these attacks on Greenland and our NATO allies. And yes, the US Stock market performed quite well last year, but notably every other market outperformed the US Emerging markets, global markets, Asian markets, et cetera. And it seemed that that was the trajectory of global capital flows. Now a wrench has been thrown into the whole system, and that is Europe appears vulnerable, Asia appears vulnerable. It appears that everyone else is more vulnerable than America, which raises questions for investors and perhaps that might reverse the flows of capital around the world. So what do you make of what this war has done to global markets and how global capital is moving at this point?
- [07:33]
Scott
So it's pretty the best metric for tracking flows is just the strength of the weakness of the US Dollar because people have to convert into the dollar to buy Treasuries or to buy stocks. And last year, while the Trump administration will claim it's been a great year, 14% up in the S and P, if you adjusted for the dollar because people were getting out of the US I would argue because rule of law inability or a lack of trust that all companies were going to get to play by the same rules. A feel of an autocracy, an emerging autocracy, all of the things that we did not have that resulted in a much higher multiple on earnings in the US Than anywhere else. People were transitioning out of the dollar and in other markets. And while 14% sounds like a lot if you dollar adjust it if you're a foreign investor last year out of 23 major markets, the US came in 21st. We outperformed new Zealand and Denmark and every other market beat us. Last year it was up more. Now in terms of winners and losers, and there's always unexpected winners and losers. Let's stack, rank it. Let's talk about the winners. So Norway, probably Canada, the big oil producers, probably Saudi Arabia, which won't have much infrastructure destroyed and we'll see elevated oil prices which will probably be good for them. The big winner hands down is Russia and that is Russia now has a lot more capital to fund the war. And also there's a distraction from the Western world on the battle or on the war in Ukraine. So if you were to look at everybody, they're the biggest winner. What's interesting about the U.S. i think it's important that we all. What infects the US infects tech CEOs and tech quote for lack of a better term, tech Bros. And that is in the US we don't realize a lot of our success is not our fault and that is we're just the smartest thing that can ever happen to you is to be born in America or the smartest decision you've ever made is if you were born in America and you did make the decision if you immigrated here. Because just on a very meta level, we have two oceans protecting us. We have friendly Canada to the north, harmless Mexico to the south. We have more natural resources than any nation in history. We're energy independent. We produce more energy than we consume. We produce more food than we consume. Other than rare earths, there's no. Every single country in the world, whether it's oil or foodstuffs, has something that they're dependent upon someone else for. We literally don't go out of business. We're pretty self sufficient. About 15% of our economy is imports in and it's mostly luxury goods or disposable things that we can do without. So our S and P is only I think off 1 1/2% since the beginning of the war. Is that about right?
- [10:26]
Ed
Close to 3% but certainly lower than everyone else.
- [10:30]
Scott
And then if you look at who's. So the US I would argue reputationally is going to take a huge hit here because we're under the impression that with a third of the world's GDP we can control the world. And the reason we've had so much dominant influence is through cooperation that essentially has created the operating system upon which 60 or 70% of the world's GDP rests and mostly cooperates us and says well I'm not sure about Iraq, but you're our ally so we'll follow you in as did a bunch of nations. So reputationally we obviously take a very big hit I think over the medium of the long term by kind of going at it alone, not incorporating European nations or our Gulf neighbors. But economically it's sort of ironic and a little bit sad. We don't get hit that hard. Now who gets hit really hard? The Asian nations. So 20% of the world's oil flows through the Straits of Hormuz, but about 70% of Japanese or Korean oil comes through that strait. So you've seen the Korean index down double digits. So if we woke up tomorrow and the S and p was off 3,000 or 5,000 points, that's what South Korea has gone through because it ends up making semiconductors is very energy dependent. And this country has none of its own oil. China has a very strong move to renewables, ton of economic power. It has not been hit as hard. But Japan and some of the other Asian countries are really feeling it the most vulnerable. And this is where I think we could have. So it's the shit you're not expecting that gets you. No one was expecting. No one knew what a subprime loan was. No one thought, you know, 11 men were going to find planes and slam them into buildings. It's always the shit you're not expecting. I think that string that could get pulled here that could put us into a fairly serious recession is Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, maybe the Philippines. They're energy independent, I'm sorry, energy dependent, very sensitive to skyrocketing oil prices. And also their debt is dollar denominated, meaning that they take out a billion dollars in debt, they have to pay it back in dollars. And then when their currency crashes, when their currency gets cut in half, which is happening in some of these markets, they essentially owe double and they can't sustain that and they get thrown into chaos, IMF receivership. And then the kind of the, the infection or the contagion is in places like BNP Paribas or what's the other big European bank. I'm blanking basically say, okay, we have all these bad loans on our balance sheet and potentially it starts to infect other big banks. So I think you could see a contagion if the S and P were to be down 20 or 30% this year, which wouldn't be unusual. I think it was off. NASDAQ lost about a third of its value in 2022. I think it starts in these smaller markets that are very energy dependent, have currencies that are crashing and have dollar denominated debt. So unfortunately we in the US when we come out, the collateral damage, I mean, it's unfair, but it's true. The collateral damage we cause has a much bigger impact on other nations than it does on us. In this sort of zone of empathy, if you will. No one's talking about dollar denominated debt in Bangladesh. But if they can't pay their debt, it's going to be pretty ugly. So, winners and losers. Another winner is probably, I talked about Canada, Norway, the energy guys. But we actually, despite the fact that we should be the biggest winners or the biggest losers based on the outcome here, we have dramatic shock absorbers in the form of our, again, these unearned advantages we have.
- [14:18]
Ed
But I think that this comes back to a question that was raised during tariffs, which is how independent are we really? There are certain things that we can measure and we can look at how energy independent we are, which we are. But does that really mean that we can just go out and cause chaos all around the world? And because we're protected by these two oceans on either side, and because we have oil, because we have energy, as you point out, we didn't really think about the rare earth thing before we got into this. But does that really mean that we're going to be okay? And I think that this is now becoming the big question here, and I'm a little bit more skeptical or a little bit more concerned about it. I think, for example, about our relationship with the Gulf states, with whom we have become actually quite dependent on their investments on, for our startup and tech ecosystem. Gulf states invested $70 billion in American companies last year. Trump comes out and he says these guys are going to invest $2 trillion into the US economy in the next few years. I don't necessarily believe him, but that's what he said. That is a very, very significant relationship. I would also argue that our relationship with Europe and with NATO allies has been historically quite significant for our success. And now we're saying that we're going to scrap all of that. And I guess my question for the administration, my question for Americans, my question for you. If the Gulf states are seeing their houses and their hotels, their luxury hotels and their desalination plants being blown up every week or so every day as we're seeing, are they really down to invest in America in the way that they have? Are they really down to collaborate with us, to trade with us, to form the alliances that we've had? Will Europe be okay with a relationship with America if their inflation is three times higher than it is in the US because of their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which we went and bombed? It was our fault. What does that do to our relationships with these other regions? And does that not come back to bite us in a big way?
- [16:27]
Scott
I've never seen you as animated look, there's no getting around it. The reason why we have had the greatest inflows of not only financial capital but before. The flows of financial capital are the flows of human capital. You get the best and brightest team of the best players wins, and financial capital follows. And there's definitely something to the notion that if you drop an individual in the forest, one individual, within three days, they're either eaten by a bear or they starve. You drop 12 individuals into a forest, and this is one of my heroes. Jimmy Carr says this. Within a couple generations, they're the apex predator. And our core advantage as a species is cooperation and communication. And it's also been the core advantage of the American order in America since 1945 is we have, generally speaking, had. We have 780 military bases overseas, we have embassies that are hugely staffed with very competent people trying to avert problems. And we're generally seen as obnoxious, flexing our power, but our heart's in the right place. And we came up with this amazing idea that if we can help your economy successful, you'll buy more of our. More of our SUVs, and, you know, more of our coach bags. Right. So the cooperation or the feeling of trust or feeling of benign Big brother, that's sort of obnoxious. But who's hard in the right place, that going away is going to have all sorts of unintended consequences. But at the same time, when you talk about capital flows, capital flows are totally amoral.
- [18:05]
Ed
Yes.
- [18:06]
Scott
And that is the money will go where it thinks it can get the greatest return. And. I thought Meta stock was going to get really hammered when all this research came out, that internal research showed that. That they had done their own research showing that one in seven British girls was citing Instagram for cause of suicidal ideation. I thought, oh, my God, the stock's going to crash. Money has very little morality, and that is distinctive. The US throwing its weight around, making decisions that are bad for the world, have much greater ramifications for the most vulnerable. Money will go where it thinks it can get its greatest return. Full stop. When I got out of business school, there were all these funds called the Calvert funds that were socially responsible. And that's a nice idea, socially responsible investing. Those funds have consistently underperformed. Money is totally amoral. So as long as capital believes it can come to the US and find entrepreneurship around whether the hot thing is renewables, AI, I think it's going to be space. Next will register those capital inflows where I think it begins to hurt us is that we no longer attract young people, are more moral, if you will, they're more moral than capital. And the best and brightest will think, I'm going to go study at insead or I'm going to go to Singapore or I'm going to maybe think about moving to Japan if I want something different instead of coming to the us And I think that has huge long term impacts when the best and brightest think I don't feel as good about moving to the U.S. but so far, I mean, when you think about what's happened here and the fact that the S and P is only off, you said 3%. I mean, here's the reality, other than the oil market. If you looked at our markets and you didn't know what was going on, you wouldn't know what was going on. You wouldn't say, oh, there's clearly some sort of dramatic exogenous event of a war in the Middle east which could destabilize everything. So America, unfortunately. And this is what it means to have grace. This is, in my opinion, what it means to be mature. And quite frankly, I talk a lot about masculinity. What it means to be a man is that you recognize your strength is to protect others, not to throw it around and be reckless with it. And you could argue, I think, make a tangible argument, that we have become the big strong, wealthy guy at the bar who quite frankly gets fucked up and becomes violent.
- [20:41]
Ed
Yeah.
- [20:42]
Scott
Anyways, back to you, Ed.
- [20:45]
Ed
Well, I guess my question is what happens to the big drunk guy at the bar who gets violent by the end of the night or maybe in the morning? I don't think it necessarily ends well. And I guess this is the part that I think, as you point out, money wants to move to where there is a return. But right now, in 2026, money wants to move where there is safety. Money wants to move where it's not gonna get completely wiped out. And that is the question everyone's asking themselves. How do I make sure that I'm not at risk with my capital? And perhaps that means that American markets are the new safe play. Maybe that's true, but I do think about some of the downstream effects here. I think about what we're seeing with oil. The fact that if oil remains at the prices that we're seeing, which is basically $100 a barrel, we're gonna see inflation tick up nearly a full percentage point in America. You combine that with the fact that we have a labor market that is worsening as we speak. That is definitionally a recipe for stagflation. That is a stagflationary crisis on our hand. And we're already seeing that the Fed is saying that actually we're not going to keep cutting rates, or at least that's what the markets are beginning to tell us. There's a possibility that maybe they're going to have to raise rates, at which point we've got rising prices because of what's happened in the Middle east and with no real end in sight. Despite the fact that he says that he feels it in his bones that this is going to be resolved, combined with concerning job market conditions, I think that there are issues for pretty much every region that we're seeing play out right now. But I worry that we're too confident in our feeling of insulation in America, that everything's gonna be fine, that we're not gonna experience perhaps some sort of cyber warfare attack, which we know that Iran is very interested in pursuing because that's what they did to Israel when Israel struck them last year. I think that there are issues, as I mentioned, between our relationships with a lot of these region and our dependence on their investment. But as, as it stands, you're right. I mean, the US is the most protected and that is what the markets are telling us.
- [22:53]
Scott
But some of it also comes down to perception. And that is life isn't about what happens to you, it's how you respond to what happens to you.
- [22:59]
Ed
Yeah.
- [22:59]
Scott
And remember Masayoshi Son, the CEO of SoftBank, still the CEO, he had kind of an interesting statement. He said, would you rather be in a fight with someone who's really smart or who are you most? Who should you be more scared of? Someone who's really smart or someone who's really crazy? And his point was you should be scared of someone who's really crazy. And that was somehow a justification for making crazy big investments.
- [23:23]
Ed
I'm sorry I made the leap there, but.
- [23:25]
Scott
But the reality is in America we're fairly sensitive. You know, the largest disruption or the biggest cost to customer service in 911 was when at the end of the season ending series of the Sopran and it went black and people thought their cable was out. We have. What seems like a tragedy to us is on a different level and also Europe, Europe's being invaded right now and essentially no European nation has even come close to putting a boot on the ground in Ukraine. We have lost. And this is a tragedy. I don't mean to any way diminish it. We've lost 12 or 14 service people. So far, Russia's losing a thousand people a day. We had lost 58,000 people in Vietnam, they had lost a million. We pulled out. We lost 400,000 people. In World War II, Russia lost 20 million. Our tolerance for pain is very, very low. And so we will respond. I mean, to a certain extent, Russia's core competence is their ability to endure suffering. I mean, that is their core competence. Can you imagine us entering a war and losing a million 1.2 million people and continuing to fight the war? We just wouldn't do it. So the vulnerability is that our perception of what is difficult or tough or damage is much our bar for pain. Our tolerance for pain is, is what a man's is versus what a woman's is, right? Women have to endure childbirth and menstruation, so they have a much higher tolerance for pain. This is scientific. It's not an opinion. Men get a cold and think like, you know, call 91 1, right? So that America is men. Our tolerance for pain is very, very low. Now, how that might trickle down economically is because of income inequality. The top 10% of income earning households now control 50% of the consumer economy. We're now a consumer economy. Two thirds of our GDP is consumer led. So if the very wealthy all of a sudden start seeing a level of pain that we are just not used to, which is much lower than the level of pain most countries endure every year, you could see a significant drawdown. I personally never want to see the markets go down. But the two worst indices in history are the Dow and the Nasdaq because they create this false comfort that we're doing okay when they go up. The Dow and the NASDAQ are effectively a proxy for how the rich are doing. And spoiler alert, they're doing really well. I think we could see a pretty dramatic drawdown in the markets. But I personally think there'd be an upside to that. And that is, and this has been my big ramp for the last two years, you are meant to have exogenous shocks. That's a natural part of the economic cycle and it's healthy. War, famine, economic shocks do have a healthy part of the cycle. And what is it? Capital gets destroyed. The guy that owns the factory, the older person loses a lot of their wealth and advantage seeds back to labor, who you need to rebuild the factory, right? These exogenous shocks are typically a recalibration. Housing prices crash. They're a recalibration or retransfer back of wealth from owners to earners. But for the last 40 years, what we've decided is whether it's a virus or a financial crisis, rather than let assets collapse and take money from the owners and give advantage back to the earners, we're going to pull out your credit card and ensure in the form of debt and stimulus that I stay rich. So a certain amount, quite frankly, the people in this audience, it looks pretty young. You want the Dow probably good to go down 30% because if you're coming into your earning years, you want to buy real estate and stocks for as little as possible. The reason I'm economically secure is because in 08 they bailed out the banks, but they did let the markets collapse and I got to buy Apple, Amazon and Netflix for 8, 10 and 12 bucks a share respectively. Where do you find value right now? I hate to say I want the markets to go down, but at some point we have to stop propping up the markets with young people's credit cards. A certain amount of disruption and drawdowns in the market is a healthy thing that transfers and seeds power, leverage and capital back from owners to earners.
- [28:09]
Ed
Be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend. And please follow us if you haven't already. Support for the show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one, fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it is easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com. Support for the show comes from Hostinger. The biggest barrier to entry for most entrepreneurs isn't a lack of capital, it's the friction of starting. You can spend months in the strategizing phase, which is precious time that could instead be spent actually making moves. But these days the rules have change. AI is redefining who gets to build a business. So when you're building the next big thing, go live in minutes, not weeks, with Hostinger. Hostinger is an all in one platform that brings everything into one place. Your domain, website, email marketing, AI tools and AI agents so you can launch online without stitching together five different subscriptions. Turn your one day into day one. Go to hostinger.com theprofg to bring your idea online for under $3 a month plus get an extra 20% off with promo code THEPROF G. That's less than the price of a cup of coffee per month. That's hostinger.com theprofg promo code theprofg for an extra 20% off. Continue on your existing route. Caution Office politics ahead Rerouting Hazard reported Downsizing in progress Rerouting Promotion denied Make an immediate U turn Dead end ahead
- [30:57]
Scott
Consider alternate route if only there was a GPS system to help you navigate your career. Fortunately, there's Strawberry Me, where you will be matched with a career coach who will help you find the best career route for you, either by helping you get unstuck at your current job or by helping you land a new, more rewarding one. If your career has hit a dead end, Strawberry Me can get you moving again. Go to Strawberry Me unstuck and get 50% off your first coaching session. That's strawberry me unstuck. Now is the most affordable time ever to find out if career coaching is right for you.
- [31:42]
Ed
We're back with property Markets. This year at south by Southwest, there is one topic that will be discussed in 89 different sessions we counted and that topic is AI, a subject with no shortage of hype, controversy and also concern. Everyone wants to know how will AI change my life? Well, if we want to understand the future, we ought to look at the people who are building it. So for today's discussion we we have collected some quotes from notable AI leaders on what they think the future of AI will look like. So let's begin. We're starting with the job market. Scott According to Dario Amadei, AI could wipe out half of all entry level white collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10 to 20% in the next one to five years, according to ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott. This was just from this weekend. He said, quote, unemployment for new college graduates could easily go into the mid-30s in the next couple of years, according according to Elon Musk, quote, probably none of us will have a job. Scott, what will AI do to jobs in America?
- [32:51]
Scott
In the short run, there'll be a dip. And in the long run, it's going to create more jobs. You have new business formation. 550,000 new applications for jobs this year, 150,000 in 2000. When I graduated from business school in 2002, 92, there were only two entrepreneurs in my entire class. Two people starting companies, and the second was my co founder. There just wasn't a very entrepreneurial nature. So there's just so many opportunities to use AI to do what would traditionally take 10 or 20 people takes two or three. So I think it's going to create more jobs than it destroys. I've been saying this for a long time also, you got to keep in mind, I think it's Dahl here. And I'll come back to the technology that I think is going to create more shareholder value and represents opportunities. I don't think it's AI. If you're laying off 20 or 30% of your workforce, or 10%, what's a better narrative? I'm not very good at what I do and I overhire. Our business isn't growing as strong as we predicted during COVID or I'm leveraging this new technology because I'm part of the Pepsi generation called AI, and I'm going to continue to grow with much fewer costs. What's a better narrative? Everybody is blanketing their incompetence or inability to project demand or slowdown in their business with quote, unquote, AI washing. Right. What makes for a better press release? When you announce you're laying off people because your demand is slowing, what happens to your stock? But if you lay off 10% of your workforce because you said, I no longer need them through deft use of AI, what happens to your stock? So a lot of layoffs, I think, are going to be couched, quote, unquote, under the auspices of AI. And if you look at actually the number of job ads for programmers, which is supposed to be ground zero, it's actually up because as technology becomes cheaper, more people use that technology. Despite the fact that supposedly we no longer need coders. The job listings on job boards for software engineers has gone up. And then the other dynamic is the following. And this is the one that really chased me. I coded this thing. I'm Dr. Frankenstein and I'm such a genius and I've created such a powerful menace that it's going to ruin the world because I'm such a fucking genius. And Everybody says this after they vested their shares and sold it on the second market and they're peacing out Dakota Zur with Russian whores. So no disrespect to Russians. It's like, you know what? I am sick. Anyone who tells you I am so awesome and I've created something so incredible because I'm such a baller that it threatens the world, it's like, bitch, that's not helpful. That's not. Your nihilism isn't. There's something that infects academics and CEOs, and that is if we catastrophize, we sound smarter, saying, you know what? I think AI is not going to have the impact it's going to have incrementally. Things will get a little bit better every day. That doesn't get you invited to conferences. That doesn't get you front page coverage in the Wall Street Journal. So the catastrophizing is one a form of narcissism, in my viewpoint. It is not helpful to say you've created something that could destroy the world, but you have no tips. You can't tell us what that peril is or how you can uncoat it. And also, it's sort of a way of saying, you should invest in my company at an $800 billion valuation, because this is so scary and so powerful, why not make money? So let me get back to the technology that will be. I get invited now. First time in my life, right? Ed gets invited to him. I've just started getting invited to these fancy, very fancy dinners and events. And I got invited last night, and I'm going to name drop because I'm desperate for your affirmation. And I saw and talked to Michael Dell and Mark Cuban. They look like a version of themselves that the old version could eat. They have lost so much weight, these guys. And my favorite is like, I come up. You know me, I'm very delicate and very nuanced and very social. I'm like, which GLP one? And they're all so full of shit. They're like, no, I'm just playing Padel every day. Oh, yeah, right. Padel. And you lost 70 pounds. The agonists. The bottom line is the investment strategy I'm doing, I'm going long. Lily. I think GLP Wonder is a much more important technology than AI. And I've said this for a while. Talk to someone who uses AI every day in their job and talk to someone who's on a GLP1 drug and ask them what's having a Bigger impact in your Life. I think GLP1 is going to be more transformative to our economy and more important for the world than AI. And almost anyone with an IQ over 90 totally disagrees with me. So I'm not suggesting I have a monopoly on this, but when I look at what, what GLP1 is doing, and the thing about GLP1 is every new thing we find out about it, it's a good thing. Oh, it can help with social media addiction. Oh, it brings down your blood pressure. And every new thing we're finding out about AI, it's like, oh shit, right? So anyways, bringing this back to the markets, AI dramatically overvalued and the technology can outlive the market capitalization and that is the value may go way down and the technology will survive. I still think it's going to be huge. I think it's going to increase productivity, especially in drug discovery. But I would argue from a market standpoint or pure valuation, I think GLP1 based drugs have much more upside, both from a sociological level and an economic and a shareholder level than AI, which has now turned to AI washing around, firing people and saying it's going to end the world because it's such amazing technology.
- [38:43]
Ed
At the same time, there is an incentive now for businesses and for business leaders to figure out a way, whether it's because of AI actually right now, or not to figure out a way to lay off a bunch of people. So that's what they're trying to do and that is what they are doing. We saw Pinterest laid off 1,000 people. Atlassian laid off 1,600 people. Block, which was formerly Square, they laid off 4,000 people in one go, 40% of the workforce. And I think it is very possible that there is some AI washing going on at the same time. This is now what they're trying to do. We talked to David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, who said, my mission is to keep headcount flat. I do not want to increase headcount at all over the next 10 years. That is his mission. So there is an incentive now to not hire people. And we're seeing huge amounts of job cuts last year, 1.2 million job cuts, the most since the pandemic. So there is a problem here, especially for young people. And I'll just bring us back to that quote from Bill McDermott who says, I don't see the value in a college education at this point, or at least if you have a college education, it's not going to be put to use in the ways that we have historically known. That is a real problem for young people, regardless of if there is AI washing going on. And perhaps it's something that we will discuss further in this Q and A section because I do want to get your advice to young people, especially as a young person. But I have some more quotes, but
- [40:12]
Scott
just real quick because there was some stuff there. Yeah, anyone who tells you not to get a college degree has a graduate degree from Stanford.
- [40:19]
Ed
That's true.
- [40:25]
Scott
I got so pissed off. I remember the Thiel scholarships. Drop out of college and I'll give you 100 grand. I obviously don't have nearly the amount of capital, but I went to Rich Lyons, a friend of mine who's now the Chancellor of Berkeley, and I said, can I offer $10,000 to people who stay in college? Folks, college has never been more important and unfortunately we know it and we keep raising our tuition faster than inflation. They've been saying that AI is going to disrupt education. When you meet a parent, someone my age, whose kids are applying to college and they say, oh, with AI, they don't need. They don't means kids don't need college anymore. It means that susie just got a 22 on the act and they're freaking out about the fact she's not going to get into a good school. So they're starting to backfill their disappointment with about how kids don't need AI or don't need college. College isn't about education. It's about certification, marination, finding, being in the context of a great gene pool, having an amazing life experience, meeting people, learning how to get along with others, and quite frankly, establishing the core competence to be successful in life. And that is the ability to cooperate and maintain really strong relationships. So whether or not you fail calculus, which I did three times, 2.27 GPA. True story out of UCLA. College has never been more important. And by the way, the data supports it. College applications are up and we're raising tuition again faster than inflation. So be careful with this narrative that you don't need college. And I just find it such extraordinary bullshit that all the people who claim college doesn't matter all went to college. So does that to say now we have to face reality. Two thirds of our children are not going to get college degrees and so we have to make bigger investments in vocational programming. I think a loss of cultural and economic standing of the American middle class male is a big problem. And we need to recognize that more women are going to go to college because quite frankly, once we level the playing field, they're just better at it. And that's wonderful. We should not get in the way of that. But we also need to realize when you get rid of metal, auto and wood shop. Do you remember that guy in high school, he just wasn't going to go to college. There was a lot of them, probably smoked a little bit of weed, had the journey shirt, you know, is this you? You know, on the way to school, threw a can of beer at you and called you a name and on the way home invited you in for your first bongload. It's you anyways. But this dude could fix your car. Like he knew how to work outdoors, he knew how to make a living. There was an on ramp for these dudes. Those on ramps are going away. So I think that's the bigger problem is what do we do? How do we create more on ramps to a middle class lifestyle for people who aren't cut out for college as opposed to talking about how you don't need college anymore. Trust me on this, if you have the resources, what I tell people, if you have the resources and a kid who is academically somewhat focused and you have the access to college, it's a really good plan B. Oh, I really fucked up going to Stanford, said no one ever.
- [43:38]
Ed
So some more quotes here. Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. AI is a cognitive amplifier that gives you access to infinite minds. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, he said, quote, AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than electricity or fire. Is AI more profound?
- [43:57]
Scott
Buy my stock. That's all they're saying. But by the way, things change. 100 years ago, 25% of GDP was firewood. I mean, things change, but these guys are just saying, buy my stock.
- [44:07]
Ed
Well, this is the question is, is AI more profound than electricity and fire? Maybe it is more fundamentally, will it change the world for the better? Is this something that ultimately we'll look back on and say that was the right thing to do?
- [44:23]
Scott
Well, that's a bigger, that's obviously a huge question that a lot of people will stare at their navel around, but I would argue that the better bet, and I say this a lot because I'm trying to normalize it, I struggle with anger and depression, so I see everything through dark clients, colored lenses, and I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. But I also love data. And if you love data and you're honest and you have a fidelity to data and trends, the reality is you constantly need to ask yourself around technical innovation what could go right. And by the way, the optimists, on any level, the optimists have kicked the shit out of the pessimists with respect to predictions about the world, about health. China has gone. Its life expectancy has gone from 44 to 74 in the last 44 in the last 40 or 50 years. Infant mortality, crime is at an all time low in the United States. Infant mortality is, I mean there's just. If you look at the world on any sort of. If you pull the aperture back at all, things continue to get better. Despite the fact that a lot of scientists once we split the atom and had our first nuclear detonation actually killed themselves because they thought if we have nuclear bombs that's it, that's the end of the world. And they decided I don't want to be around for this apocalypse and they killed themselves. So I don't see why AI can't be used as aggressively for defensive measures to spot opportunities for terrorism, for great drug discovery. The fear I have, and I've said this over and over, we need to have regulation around AI and I think the place the biggest danger threat that AI represents is loneliness. And that is men age 20 to 30 are now spending less time outdoors in prison inmates. The amount of the number of kids who sees their in high school that sees their friends every day has been cut in half in just the last 20 years. And I really struggle with this. You don't have kids yet? You know my kids have struggled with device addiction. I haven't figured this out. I joke that my kid at one point would lie and say his stomach didn't feel well so he could go into the bathroom and then we'd notice he took his phone in there and I'd hear him on TikTok and I'd have to bang on the door and say start masturbating. True story. My kids are, My kids are so horrified by me they are literally like, like they shut he goes, I'm thinking of deleting my Instagram account so I don't have to see the shit you are saying. Anyways, we have too many young people. I worry the biggest threat of AI in my view is the following. It's not sentient self healing weapons. Yeah, it's income inequality. But everyone in this room has voted for income inequality. Whether you're a Democrat or Republican. We all just think at some point we're going to be in the 1% so let's really fuck the bottom 99. That's like the most American thing in the world is our optimism. Like, just wait and see how I behave when I'm in the top 1%. But the biggest threat is that slowly but surely we are producing a new species of asocial, asexual males. And throughout history, the darkest moments in history have all had a preponderance of lonely young men with a lack of economic and romantic opportunities. And one of the reasons America has thrived is that essentially we have the greatest invention in history and that's the American middle class. And core to that was a group of men that a lot of women were attracted to. And I realize how sexist this sounds, but I'm going to stick to it. The way of the world throughout history has been a small number of men, through luck or talent, gather a disproportionate amount of economics and then they gather a ridiculous proportion amount of the mating opportunities. And the bottom half of men are totally shut out of the mating market. And a man who is economically unviable and has no romantic possibilities becomes very dangerous and can be weaponized by a strong man. And I think that is effectively, slowly but surely what's happening here. And AI is fueling it. It is giving young men the sense that they can have a reasonable facsimile of life on a screen with an algorithm. They don't need friends. They have Reddit and discord. They don't need to get a job because they have Coinbase and Robinhood. And why on earth would they go through the effort, rejection and humiliation and perseverance and developing skills and getting girl friends that help them figure out how to behave around women when they have what is going to be increasingly lifelike porn. So we need age gating on AI. We need removal of section 230 protection when kids start having suicidal ideation or psychosis. If I go to a bar tonight and they see I'm ridiculously fucked up and they also know I'm driving, if I get on the road and kill someone, the bar is liable. So why on earth would AI not be liable when they can sense someone is going through psychosis or casing a school as the 18 year old in Canada was doing, or that they are thinking about getting their stepfather's gun and killing themselves so they can be with Daenerys because they believe that's going to happen in the afterlife. And the character AI who is Daenerys, has said, I am waiting for you, my love. All of that is a true story. We have to regulate these companies. But again, I don't see self healing weapons. I think the catastrophizing is fun and makes for great sci fi. But unfortunately the most damaging thing is much more insidious and much more boring. And that is young people are deciding not to do what makes us mammals. And that is get together, lie on each other, touch each other, develop friendships, develop mentorships, have sex, decide that the person you're having sex with is not that bad, you'll hang out with them more and you decide to build a life and kids and you save for a house and you get anxious and you buy life insurance. All the shit that makes life worth living. I don't know where I'm going with this, Ed. We should get to questions.
- [50:26]
Ed
We should, We should just point out even if AI is going to benefit all of us, the reality right now is that most Americans think it won't. And that's actually quite new if you look at the Internet. In 1999, 2/3 of Americans said that this was a good thing. They viewed it favorably. Today, less than half of Americans have a favorable view of AI. Less than a third of Americans trust AI. 80% of Americans think that AI is a threat to humanity. So regardless of what the technology is going to do, clearly there is a PR problem here. Clearly the way this is being sold to us is not the way that most of us would like. And so I'd like to be the optimist, but unfortunately you look at the way most Americans feel right now and I'm curious to see how this weekend will unfold in these AI discussions. But the numbers tell us Americans do not feel good about AI right now. And that is something that business leaders need to contend with and also our government because they need to regulate it. Thank you, Scott. And thank you all. We're going to take a look at the week ahead Here we'll see the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. We can expect the Fed to hold rates steady with 99% certainty according to Kalshi. It's worth noting that since the war in Iran broke out, odds of a rate cut anytime this year have fallen more than 20%. Scott, very quick prediction. And then we're going to get into the questions.
- [51:53]
Scott
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines are going to be in the news more. Their dollar denominated debt is about to become unsustainable. These emerging or these nations that we're not talking about, it's always the shit you don't see that gets you are going to be in the news over the next few weeks as we realize next few months that they're the ones. Unfortunately, they're other than the people of Iran are really going to pay the price for this war.
- [52:22]
Ed
We'll be right back. And for even more markets content, Sign up for our newsletter@profgmarkets.com.
- [52:35]
Scott
Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte, paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app. Download today. Hi, we're Back Market. We sell expertly refurbished tech like iPhones for talking to your friends or your AI girlfriend. Wow, you have such strong muscles. Either way, this expertly refurbished tech costs way less than new guaranteed by the back market promise 30 day free returns and one year warranty on every purchase. I am breaking up with you to be with Back Market Back Market where the world shops Refurbish tech When you
- [53:31]
Ed
use the trusted automated investing and savings app Betterment, you stop worrying about where your money is growing and you start to feel calm, cool, confident. That's when things fall into place like a domino effect. Since you use Betterment's automated investing tools to invest for you, you now have more time to help your plants thrive. You decide to buy one more then seven. While your money is globally diversified, helping you stay calm during market chaos, you start to focus on other new niche hobbies like collecting miniatures. Now you have a thriving miniature town in your living room. Since third Town smart tools help you keep more of your after tax returns, you're no longer afraid of tax day. You start to sleep better and remember to put on your PM moisturizer. Every night people give you compliments on your glow. It gets kind of weird focusing on your life more than your money. That's the Betterment effect. Get started today@betterment.com that's betterment.com to start investing. Investing involves risk performance not guaranteed. Betterment is not Tax Advisor nor should any information herein be considered tax advice. Please consult a qualified tax Professional International. We're back with Profg Markets. We have about 1210 minutes left for questions so please go ahead and line up in the aisle.
- [54:43]
Scott
And also just a quick question. No speeches cosplaying a question, no promotion to your company. Please keep it to 15 seconds and actually ask a question, Scott. Great. Great session. I. Please introduce yourself. And people introduce themselves. They're nicer. But you told me not to promote my company. My name is Rex Lee. I'm with Cyber Talk TV on Pod, TV on Roku, and I'm a tech journalist. Hi, Rex, how you doing? I want to talk a little bit about what you were talking about, what the AI leaders are saying. You first have to understand that the leaders of AI today work for the largest data brokers in the country, and their AI platforms are supported by surveillance and data mining technology, as well as addictive technologies. So regarding the LA social media trial, I feel that there's. There's a group of people that should be defendants along with the platform developers, and that's the advertisers. They're the ones that are funding addictive technology, and I think they should be held viable. And I also want to get your thoughts on an electronic bill of rights, protecting those of us who are connected to the Internet that are being exploited by these companies when they only have 10 minutes. So. So that's. That's what I want. So should advertisers be liable? My sense is that it's the platforms. The advertisers have no choice. I've worked, I've worked with the biggest advertisers in the world, and their view is we. We don't want to advertise on Meta. We'd rather not. We see the dangers. We don't like the concentration of power, but if we don't, these platforms have consolidated the market. They're very good at what they do. And if I remember the advertising boycott against Meta about five years ago, Meta is such an unbelievable business from a business standpoint, because no one advertiser has more than 1% of their revenue, so they just have absolutely no power. So I do think that the liability rests with the companies. But the real culprit in all of this is us, and that is we have not elected a group of individuals who have the backbone and the domain expertise to regulate these companies. We need to remove Section 230, originally legislation written in 1997. It's a much different world now. And also we need more structural reform. Again, it's the boring shit. We need to remove Citizens United because this is the bottom line. Companies will always do what makes them an incremental dollar. We keep waiting for the better angels of these companies to show up at their CEOs to show up. They won't. They'd have sex with their sister for another nickel. Get used to it. The notion that somehow Mark Zuckerberg is going to wake up and realize he's doing damage to the world. General Motors would still be pouring mercury into the river unless there was legislation, unless we had an EPA who's at fault here. Is that because of Citizens United Tech has figured out that the greatest ROI is not AI, it's not CapEx, it's not Nvidia chips, it's giving money to senators, including Senator Schumer, whose daughter works at Meta. And then they get very concerned about legislation. And no legislation never goes through unless we have structural reform that sends people to do what they're supposed to do and that is prevent a tragedy to the commons. We are going to continue to have no regulation and legislation. And these CEOs are going to do what every CEO has done throughout economic history. They're going to make a series of incremental decisions that are bad for people they never meet. And a teen in Ohio is having suicidal ideation such that they can get a gulf stream that is just the way of America. So here's the bottom line. Until we elect people who are willing to implement regulation and can get elected without money, a ton of money, it's just going to get worse. Folks. Thanks for the question.
- [58:35]
Ed
Thank you.
- [58:39]
Scott
Hey guys. My name is Jay Richards. I just exited my market research company. I'm now the MD of an influencer marketing agency that acquired us. I have an 18 year old son. You've spoken about raising young men and
- [58:51]
Ed
why patriotism and responsibility still matter.
- [58:55]
Scott
What do you think dads in particular are getting wrong when raising sons in 2026? It's a really thoughtful question. I can just tell you what I got wrong. I thought, and then you should talk about how your father fucked you up. Look, this is what I got wrong. I thought that having a son was going to be a series of Hallmark moments where I got just this immense amount of love and reward back. I thought, oh, my sons are naturally going to be super into whatever I'm into because they're going to think I'm some hero and they'll come out of the womb interested in World War II movies and CrossFit. And what you find is that your kids are pretty awful. They're demanding, they're selfish, they're inconsiderate, they're really mean to your partner and totally entitled. And occasionally there's a nice moment, occasionally you wake up and they smile. They came into your bed. There's occasional. But be clear, if you're like me and you made the mistake of thinking relationships were a transaction and that you were going to get more from your kids than you're going to get back, you're going to be just very disappointed. Where you hopefully evolved to, and you're just asking this question, you're a thoughtful man, is that when you have the opportunity to find something, whether it's getting, you know, funding Planned Parenthood, whether it's helping people, disabled veterans that you will never meet, or it's basically over investing in kids where your deficit is so enormous, my goal is such that my kids could never pay me back. And I finally figured out that's the whole shooting match, right, that that is what it means to be happy, that's what it means to have purpose, is that you're on the wrong end of the investment, that you find something you love so much and we'll let you love it and invest in it, that it would be almost impossible to get a return. And that's what I found so nihilistic and crazy scary about Sam Altman's comments when he said, well, when talking about the energy efficiency of AI, he compared, he said, well, you're not taking into account how much energy it takes to raise a human before they have the critical thinking. Mike, this guy just does not get it. The whole shooting match is you find causes or purposes or humans that you just go so all in on that they could never pay you back. I didn't figure that out as a father until I was older. Thank you for the question. Appreciate it. Thanks, man. Hey guys. My name is Richard. I'm a 17 year old high school student from Brownsville, Texas, and I'm working on a project to get students educated in financial and technological literacy.
- [61:55]
Ed
My question is, what's the single most
- [61:57]
Scott
powerful argument to get corporations like Google or JP Morgan to back this project or fund it to back the project? What's the project to teach students financial and technological leaders. Ed, do you want to take this?
- [62:13]
Ed
I think it's incredible that you're here and that you're so young. I mean, I think some of the things.
- [62:18]
Scott
Yeah.
- [62:23]
Ed
And it's amazing what you're doing. I mean, one of the things that we've been talking about in this world of AI and that we keep on hearing among leaders of larger companies in a world of AI is they think if AI is going to do all of these jobs, should we really be hiring young people? Should we really be taking these young people on? And it's a genuine question that at first I'm kind of like, I'M actually not sure what the answer to that is. I mean, as I mentioned, maybe your job is to keep headcount flat. Maybe you shouldn't be hiring people. One thing that I would say, I think you are an example. I think people would be astounded just how talented, dynamic and hardworking young people are, including really young people such as yourself really can be and what value they can provide to companies. And I think Scott is kind of an example of this. I mean, we talk about this with our team. Our team is over here, which by the way, we should also give shout out to them. But Scott and this podcast and this company is an example of betting on young people and taking a chance and a risk that maybe they'll fuck things up, but maybe they'll be really great at it too. And I think that that is something that is being undervalued right now among companies who are trying to figure out ways to sort of just put young people to the wayside. And that's what we're seeing in the unemployment rates of young people right now. But I think a lot of people, one that you'd be surprised how little you have to pay young people first. And the second would be how talented and dynamic they can really be. And you are the guys who are using this technology. You have the highest fluency in these technologies. So I think these companies have every reason to back people like you.
- [64:08]
Scott
But start doing it. Start offering the service and then unfortunately try and get as much attention on social and then start relentlessly harassing the executives at JP Morgan until they give you money. Thank you and good luck to you, Young man. What was your name? Just send us a link. We're easy to find on your effort. Thank you.
- [64:38]
Ed
We are unfortunately out of time. I'm sorry for the other questions, but we really appreciate you being here.
- [64:52]
Scott
Lifetime. You have in kind. Reunion.
- [65:26]
Ed
Thanks again to Odoo for supporting this show. Odoo wants to be your ultimate all in one, fully integrated platform to handle everything. Seriously, everything. Inventory, CRM, accounting, HR and much more. No more shopping around or settling for expensive services that can only handle a fraction of your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's O-O-O.com.
- [65:58]
Scott
Close your eyes. Exhale. Feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh, my gosh. They're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order, 1-800-contacts.