Prof G Markets – What the $100K H-1B Visa Fee Means for Big Tech + TikTok Deal Details Emerge

Date: September 23, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson (main host)
Guests: Peter Harrell (Carnegie Endowment, former National Security Council advisor), Dan Primack (Axios)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles two seismic stories impacting the financial markets and tech landscape in the U.S.:

1. The Trump administration’s unprecedented $100,000 H-1B visa fee and its wide-ranging implications for tech, labor, immigration, and international relations.
2. Exclusive details on the finalized TikTok-U.S. deal—including the fate of its algorithm, major investors (Oracle, Silverlake, the Murdoch family, Michael Dell), and the shifting balance of power in American media.

The podcast offers context, real-time analysis, and inside perspectives from leading policy and business voices.

1. The $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee: Policy and Ramifications

Background & Announcement

• Market Recap: Nvidia surges 4% on planned $100B OpenAI investment; BYD falls as Berkshire exits; the U.S. dollar drops, gold hits highs. (02:00–02:30)
• Big News: President Trump announces applicants for H-1B visas must now pay a $100,000 fee—a staggering leap from the prior $5,000 lottery fee. The selection process will now favor higher-paid positions. (02:40–03:35)
• The H-1B program, originally created to bring the “best and brightest” to the U.S., birthed the careers of many tech titans, including Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Google’s Sundar Pichai, and Elon Musk.

From Campaign Promises to Dramatic Reversal

• Trump had pledged to loosen restrictions for skilled immigrants, even saying:

  “What I want to do and what I will do is: you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card.”
  — Donald Trump, All In podcast, June 2024 (05:39)

• Now, with the $100,000 fee, the policy reverses course—expected to lead to a “plummet” in H-1B participation.

Expert Analysis: Peter Harrell Interview

(07:31–20:10)

• Harrell’s Initial Reaction:
  “This is really the first time they seem to be moving against high skill immigration as opposed to more blue collar kind of immigration… It is clearly gonna have implications for the tech sector.” (07:51)

• Beyond Tech: The policy affects not just Big Tech but startups, hospitals (which rely on foreign doctors), universities, and nonprofits.

• Reed Hastings (Netflix founder) supports the move:

  “Trump’s $100,000 per year tax is a great solution. It will mean H1B is used just for very high value jobs...more certainty for those jobs.” (09:18)

  • Harrell counters this benefits Big Tech giants who can afford it, but

    “…the NGO users, small business users...I think will find $100,000 fee makes the difference between their ability to bring in talent that they want to bring in and their ability to bring that talent in or not.” (11:20)

• Strategic Implications & U.S. Competitiveness:

  • The move may not hinder giants like Meta, which can “spend $100 million to buy an engineer”—but

    “I do worry the real losers here are going to be the startups…the folks who are bringing in, you know, Elon, when Elon was a kid, for whom this is real money. And that, of course, has historically been a big part of American innovation.” (13:27)

• Potential Hit to U.S.-India Relations:

  • 75% of H-1B holders are Indian nationals.

    “We saw Indian markets get a little bit rattled after this announcement. We’ve seen...concern out of Indian political leadership.” (15:35)
    “There’s a provision...that says, yes, we’re having this $100,000 … but the Secretary of Homeland Security can waive that fee...Would the Trump administration tell the Indians...‘Hey, we’ll give you 20,000 free H-1Bs if we get to yes on the trade deal’?” (15:49)

• Why the Reversal?

  “I think that this combines two things we know Trump is interested in. One is a tough line on immigration...And second, I do think it’s about the money. This is a guy who’s looking for odd sources of government revenue somewhere.” (17:36–18:31)

• Rollout of the “Gold Card” Visa:

  • Pay $1M for U.S. residency, announced the same day.

    “It really just seems to be a visa for sale system that we’ve often criticized other governments for adopting.” (18:47)

Key Quotes

• On startups:

  “The real losers here are going to be the startups…the folks bringing in, you know, Elon, when Elon was a kid, for whom this is real money.” —Peter Harrell (13:27)

• On U.S. global rivalry:

  “We’re in the middle of this AI race, especially with China...Is this going to hamper our ability to compete on AI and in technology at large?” —Ed Elson (12:24)

• On administering the change:

  “He can appear tough on immigration and he can claim he’s getting money for the federal government. And I don’t think you have to overthink that with this particular president.” —Peter Harrell (18:31)

2. The TikTok Deal: Inside the Breakup and Rebuild

Deal Structure and U.S. Control

(22:55–33:15, interview with Dan Primack)

• Finalized Structure: Oracle and an American investor group—including Silverlake, Andreessen Horowitz, as well as (potentially) the Murdoch family and Michael Dell—will own 80% of the newly carved-out TikTok US entity and control 6 of 7 board seats. ByteDance will have <20%. (22:55–24:58)

• The Algorithm:

  “A copy of the TikTok algorithm will get made. ByteDance will retain the original algorithm. That copy will go to...TikTok US, which is going to be controlled by Silverlake and Oracle…Imagine someone made a drawing and made a photocopy for you. They would hold onto the original drawing, but you could do whatever you wanted with the photocopy.” —Dan Primack (24:11)

• Oracle’s Role:

  • Oracle will retrain the algorithm and ensure data security (Project Texas origins). It is both tech partner and equity investor. (25:01)

• China’s Position:

  • Primack: “The official readout from the Chinese government was a lot more vague... Is that to save face?... The White House has been pretty consistent...that China…approved of this. There’s going to be paperwork signed shortly.” (25:47)

• Unanswered Questions:

  • Final cap table, investor list, US government cut (“finder’s fee”), and paperwork are not finalized. Trump will sign an executive order to extend the timeline, possibly delaying the closing by four months. (26:25–27:22)

• Valuation and Leverage:

  • Uncertain how TikTok US will be valued, given ByteDance’s $250–$300B valuation; political leverage central to the deal. The only certainty: ByteDance and its investors will own <20%. (27:26)

• Winners & Losers

  • China must accept loss of control:

    “It’s a loss for China in the sense that one of its giant tech companies has been getting pushed around...not the sort of thing China wants to see one of its companies have to do.” —Dan Primack (28:26)

• Notable Investors’ Involvement:

  • Michael Dell invests via his family office merger with BDT; Murdoch’s involvement via Fox Corp., not personal funds.
  • Oracle’s stake may include both company and possibly Larry Ellison’s personal funds; still unconfirmed. (28:57–29:42)

• Comparisons to Musk/Twitter:

  • Primack downplays risk of user flight:

    “Americans have been told for the past five years that the Chinese government controls this...and Americans keep flocking to the app.” (30:34)

Deal’s Political & Media Significance

• Ed Elson sums up:

  “Those are the people who will own the most ascendant social media asset in the world...the app from which one third of young Americans get their news.” (33:16)

• American media power has shifted rightward:

  “There is not one corner of American media that isn’t captured or controlled by the right at this point.” (34:07)

Key Quotes & Moments

• On the complexity:

  “There is a framework, but really this has been so complicated…until it’s really done and all the paperwork is signed…there isn’t yet a TikTok deal.” —Dan Primack (31:55)

• On media ownership:

  “If ever [the Left controlling media] was true, there is no longer any doubt the right controls the media…This is a story of total and complete control.” —Ed Elson (34:07)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Market News + H-1B Background — 01:56–06:48
• Trump campaign stance on green cards (audio clip) — 05:34–06:48
• Peter Harrell Interview (H-1B fee analysis) — 07:31–20:10
• TikTok Deal Recap + Analysis (w/ Dan Primack) — 22:55–33:15
• Concluding commentary on media power — 33:16–end

Notable Quotes

• “Without [the H1B program], we wouldn’t have Tesla or SpaceX or Neuralink, or at least they wouldn’t exist in the U.S.” —Ed Elson (03:35)
• “The real losers here are going to be the startups…for whom this is real money.” —Peter Harrell (13:27)
• “He can appear tough on immigration and he can claim he’s getting money for the federal government.” —Harrell (18:31)
• “Imagine someone made a drawing and made a photocopy for you. They would hold onto the original drawing, but you could do whatever you wanted with the photocopy.” —Dan Primack on the TikTok algorithm (24:11)
• “This is a story of total and complete control.” —Ed Elson on rightward media shift (34:07)

Summary Takeaways

• The $100,000 H-1B fee will dramatically restrict U.S. skilled immigration, safeguarding Big Tech but stifling startups, healthcare, and U.S. innovation—while doubling as both immigration posturing and a revenue grab.
• The TikTok US deal places power over one of America’s most influential social apps in the hands of pro-Trump billionaires and major U.S. firms, as ByteDance is sidelined—further consolidating conservative control over American media channels.
• The underlying story: Money and power—not just laws and policies—now shape the future of tech, immigration, and the flow of information in America today.