Prof G Markets: What the Falling Dollar Means for America

Episode Release Date: June 23, 2025

In this insightful episode of Prof G Markets, host Scott Galloway and co-host Ed Elson delve into the multifaceted implications of the U.S. dollar's decline, the evolving landscape of pharmaceutical advertising, and the resurgence of the IPO market. The discussion is enriched with data-driven analysis, expert opinions, and candid banter between the hosts.

1. RFK Jr.'s Push to Regulate Pharmaceutical Advertising

Ed initiates the conversation by highlighting RFK Jr.'s efforts to impose stricter regulations on pharmaceutical advertising. The administration is considering two primary strategies:

• Enhanced Side Effect Disclosures: Requiring more detailed and alarming disclosures in ads.
• Taxation Changes: Removing the ability for pharmaceutical companies to deduct ad spending as a business expense.

Impact on the Industry:

These measures are poised to affect the $10 billion annual spend on pharmaceutical advertising. Major pharmaceutical stocks like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca have already experienced declines in response to this news.

Ed [06:19]: "Pharmaceutical stocks, including Johnson Johnson, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, all fell on this news."

Scott shares a personal anecdote to underscore the pervasive nature of pharmaceutical ads and their influence on consumer behavior.

Scott Galloway [07:28]: "This will literally probably be the last nail in the broadcast industrial complex."

Legal and Economic Considerations:

Ed explains the legal challenges of outright banning pharmaceutical ads in the U.S. due to the First Amendment, contrasting it with other countries where such ads are prohibited. The proposed changes aim to alter the economics of advertising, making it less financially viable for pharmaceutical companies.

Ed [11:06]: "America is. There are only two developed countries in the world that allow for pharmaceuticals to be advertised on tv, and it's New Zealand and America."

Scott concurs, emphasizing the disproportionate healthcare costs in the U.S. compared to other nations and the role of pharmaceutical advertising in driving these expenses.

Scott Galloway [14:49]: "This is another problem with the externalities of free speech where we say, okay, money is political speech."

2. The Resurgence of the IPO Market

Transitioning to the IPO landscape, Ed observes a gradual yet positive shift in the market after three challenging years.

Key Highlights:

• Record-Breaking Debuts: Crypto firm Circle surged 168% on its first day, followed by fintech company Chime (37%) and space and defense technology company Voyager (80%).

Ed [22:46]: "Newly public stocks are now seeing their strongest first day performances in more than three years."

• Upcoming IPOs: Highly anticipated companies like Klarna, Gemini, and Cerebras are gearing up to go public.

Scott's Insights:

Scott critiques the current IPO market, suggesting that many of the companies going public lack substantial fundamentals and resemble Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). He points out the inherent disadvantages faced by retail investors, who often miss out on the initial gains enjoyed by institutional players.

Scott Galloway [24:22]: "The IPO market hasn't been great because one, it's a bit of a rigged game for the insiders and the friends of the underwriters."

Ed's Perspective:

Ed concurs, expressing skepticism about the long-term viability of many newly public companies. He underscores the disconnect between high-profile IPOs and the robust private companies that remain off the public market.

Ed [27:35]: "They have a very SPAC feel to them. And it's almost as if IPOs in 2025 are SPACs."

3. The Declining U.S. Dollar and Its Implications

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing the depreciation of the U.S. dollar against major global currencies since President Trump's tenure began.

Current Situation:

• The dollar has dropped over 10% against currencies like the euro, pound, and Swiss franc.
• It has hit a three-year low and is on track for its worst first half in decades.

Ed [37:42]: "The dollar is down 10% since Trump came into office, on pace for its worst first half of the year in decades."

Expert Analysis:

Robert Armstrong from the Financial Times provides foundational insights:

• Weakening Dollar: Despite rising yields on U.S. Treasuries, global investors are shying away from U.S. assets, indicating diminished confidence.
• Potential Risks: A significant concern is the potential increase in borrowing costs and the impact on the $29 trillion national debt if foreign holders of U.S. debt, which constitutes about 30%, pull out.

Robert Armstrong [42:16]: "The dollar is down 10%, but it's not historically weak. What's the lesson here? One, you could argue that this connotes a weakening in confidence and capital inflows."

Hosts' Commentary:

Scott elaborates on the macroeconomic implications, linking the dollar's decline to reduced global confidence in U.S. fiscal policies and questioning the long-term stability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Scott Galloway [46:58]: "The dollar is down 10%, but it's not historically weak... people are selling US assets to buy non-US assets."

Ed highlights the avalanche of data supporting the dollar's decline, including Bank of America's survey indicating that global fund managers are increasingly underweight the dollar.

4. Gold as the New Safe Haven

With traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries losing their allure, gold has surged as a preferred alternative.

Market Trends:

• Gold prices have risen by 30% year-to-date and have doubled since late 2022.
• It has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally.

Ed [50:09]: "Price of gold is up 30% year to date. Prices have doubled since late 2022."

Comparison with Other Assets:

Scott contrasts gold with Bitcoin, discussing the practical utility of gold versus the portability and technological allure of cryptocurrencies.

Scott Galloway [51:15]: "Gold actually has some utility... it's very difficult for us to piece out with a, you know, to shove a, you know, cold storage hardware wallet up our ass and piece out to Milan."

Despite personal reservations about gold as an investment, both hosts recognize its growing appeal as a secure asset amidst economic uncertainties.

5. Looking Ahead: Upcoming Economic Indicators

As the episode nears its conclusion, Scott and Ed briefly touch upon key economic indicators and corporate earnings to watch in the coming week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and earnings reports from FedEx and Nike.

Conclusion

This episode of Prof G Markets offers a comprehensive analysis of the current economic climate, focusing on the weakening U.S. dollar, the shifting dynamics of pharmaceutical advertising, and the fluctuating IPO market. Through data-driven discussions and expert insights, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the capital markets.

Notable Quotes:

• Ed [06:19]: "Pharmaceutical stocks, including Johnson Johnson, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, all fell on this news."
• Scott Galloway [07:28]: "This will literally probably be the last nail in the broadcast industrial complex."
• Ed [22:46]: "Newly public stocks are now seeing their strongest first day performances in more than three years."
• Scott Galloway [24:22]: "The IPO market hasn't been great because one, it's a bit of a rigged game for the insiders and the friends of the underwriters."
• Ed [37:42]: "The dollar is down 10% since Trump came into office, on pace for its worst first half of the year in decades."
• Robert Armstrong [42:16]: "The dollar is down 10%, but it's not historically weak. What's the lesson here? One, you could argue that this connotes a weakening in confidence and capital inflows."
• Ed [50:09]: "Price of gold is up 30% year to date. Prices have doubled since late 2022."
• Scott Galloway [51:15]: "Gold actually has some utility... it's very difficult for us to piece out with a, you know, to shove a, you know, cold storage hardware wallet up our ass and piece out to Milan."

Produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Associate producers include Alison Weiss and Dan Shalon, with research led by Mia Saverio and Isabella Kinsel. Technical direction by Drew Burrows and Executive Production by Catherine Dillon.

For more insights, tune into Prof G Markets on the Vox Media Podcast Network.