Prof G Markets — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Why China is Rearing For a Bull Run & The Largest Jobs Revision Ever
Date: September 10, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson, Scott Galloway (Prof G), Guest: Alice Han (China Economist)

Episode Overview

This episode zeros in on two headline-grabbing stories in the global markets:

1. China’s Resurgence on the Global Stage: Local and international market momentum, new geopolitical alliances, enormous advances in AI, and demonstrations of military and economic strength suggest a bullish future for China. China economist Alice Han shares on-the-ground insights.
2. Major US Jobs Data Revision: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its largest ever revision—a sharp downward restatement of job growth—exposing cracks not only in the US labor market but also in the process of economic data collection, with deeply political repercussions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap & Apple/Oracle News

Timestamps: [02:07–04:03]

• All three major indices hit record highs for the first time since December 2024.
• Treasury yields climb ahead of key inflation numbers.
• Apple falls 1.5% after a disappointing iPhone 17 release.
• Oracle posts a 20% surge on stronger-than-expected cloud growth.

2. China’s Show of Strength & New World Order

Ed Elson and Alice Han
Timestamps: [04:03–21:50]

A. Military Parade & Diplomatic Optics

• China hosts a massive military parade attended by Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, and numerous Southeast Asian leaders.
  • "China was clearly showing the US and the rest of the world that it was ready for business and that it shouldn't be meddled with."
    — Alice Han [04:50]
• Attendance of North Korean leadership at a military parade in China is unprecedented since the 1940s.
  • "This is the first time we've seen a North Korean leader come to China for a military parade, I think since the late 40s."
    — Alice Han [07:14]
• Domestic efforts: Strongly encouraged participation among employees in both public and private sectors, stoking nationalistic pride.

B. Geopolitical Shifts & Alliances

• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit draws 20+ non-Western leaders.
• Renewed diplomatic alignment with Russia, North Korea, Southeast Asian nations, and notably, the inclusion of India's Prime Minister.
  • "China wanted to show that it had many friends... and that it was actually increasing its diplomatic clout within the region and globally."
    — Alice Han [04:50]

C. Market Momentum: Quiet Bull Run

• Chinese stocks and the Hang Seng Index both up 30% year-to-date, outperforming the US S&P (up 11%).
• Massive increase in household investment: Bank deposits are moving into stocks.
• Improved sentiment: Investors view China as both a hedge against US political risk and a new frontier for AI bets.
  • "They're talking about China's 'quiet bull market' or even 'slow bull market'."
    — Alice Han [08:44]
• Key sectors: Tech and AI (notably Alibaba and DeepSeek), with cheap valuations inviting global capital.

D. Changing Risk Calculus

• While China has always faced risk discounts due to political volatility, the US is now developing some of the same "pathologies," such as centralized power and policy uncertainty, pushing investors back toward China.
  • "The US is becoming what China was... in the 2000s when you had investors concerned about the centralization of power."
    — Alice Han [11:23]
• Chinese leadership (Xi Jinping) has loosened restrictions since last September, boosting confidence in the private sector.

E. Currency Strength

• The renminbi hits a 10-month high—primarily due to dollar weakness, but also because the Chinese Central Bank avoids devaluing further for diplomatic reasons.
• China is conscious of its trade relations both with the US and other markets; a weaker yuan could trigger further trade tensions.
  • “China is mindful of beggar-thy-neighbor policies… It remains ever yet more exposed to exports.”
    — Alice Han [13:10]

F. The Push for AI

• New "AI Plus" plan: 70% AI device adoption by 2027, 90% by 2030.
• AI is now "like electricity" for China's next industrial revolution.
  • “I heard from multiple contacts... that AI was going to be what electricity was in the previous industrial revolution. And this is going to power basically every sector of the economy.”
    — Alice Han [15:25]
• Policy is “extremely, extremely optimistic” about AI, with less concern for potential tech-driven job loss.
• Deep integration of AI in governance and public administration.

G. Is China 'Back'?

• Despite persistent structural issues (real estate, debt, demographics), market optimism is high.

• “China is becoming even more efficient as an export machine and that has implications obviously globally.”

• Investors are returning thanks to improved "top-down sentiment" and signals from Beijing supporting private wealth-building via the stock market—not real estate.

  • "I don't say a huge bull run, but I would say... a quiet or a slow bull is well and truly baked in the cake."
    — Alice Han [19:14]

3. US Jobs Market: Largest Revision Ever

Timestamps: [25:31–33:44]

A. The Revision

• US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported (original: 1.8 million; actual: ~900,000).
  • “This was the largest revision to the jobs numbers of all time.”
    — Ed Elson [25:31]
• Data revisions are standard but the magnitude is unprecedented, fueling partisan accusations (left: revision is politicized against Biden; right: original numbers were a White House lie).

B. Why Did This Happen?

• Two major factors:
  • Lower survey response rate: Down 20% since COVID, “BLS is working with a fifth less information than they used to.”
  • Funding Cuts: BLS budget has shrunk 20% over the past two decades; 2026 budget will cut an additional $56 million and reduce workforce another 8%.
• “The reason the BLS's data is getting worse isn't because they're lying. It's because they don't have the resources. They don't have the money and the staffing and the technology to do their job properly.”
  — Ed Elson [30:15]

C. Politicization and Risks

• White House response is to fire the commissioner, publicly question BLS credibility, and cut funding further.

• Incoming BLS chief E.J. Antoni is an openly partisan pick with little credibility in the statistical community.

  • "This is someone who has made violent threats... someone who called the BLS a random number generator... E.J. Antoni as BLS Commissioner would be, quote, disastrously terrible."
    — Ed Elson (quoting Prof. Justin Wolfers) [32:22]

• Elson’s warning: This follows a broader pattern of undermining institutions, defunding and discrediting, then installing loyalists—a vicious cycle with consequences for economic measurement and democracy itself.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "China was clearly showing the US and the rest of the world that it was ready for business and that it shouldn't be meddled with."
  • Alice Han [04:50]
• "What struck me was the fact that in China a lot of the rhetoric is about involution or anti involution... Chinese goods get ever cheaper both in the domestic and foreign markets."
  • Alice Han [19:14]
• On the BLS Revision:
  • “If you can't trust the data when it comes out, if the data is swinging wildly up and down six months later, that basically means your data isn't very good. That's an issue.”
    — Ed Elson [26:12]
• On BLS politicization:
  • “This is how the playbook goes. … Accuse an American institution of corruption, cut their funding, wait for a mistake, pounce, repeat. … Eventually you’re left with an institution so deprived…you can simply take it over.”
    — Ed Elson [32:45]

Important Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------------------|------------| | Market recap | 02:07–04:03| | China military parade & geopolitics | 04:03–08:27| | Chinese market/AI/valuation discussion | 08:27–19:14| | Yuan/currency/AI ambitions | 13:01–17:59| | Is China “Back”? | 17:59–21:50| | US Job revision/bureau data crisis | 25:31–33:44|

Conclusion & Tone

Throughout, the conversation is sharp, analytical, and at times, pointedly critical—true to Prof G Markets’ “no mercy, no malice” brand. Galloway/Elson and guest Alice Han blend firsthand observation, robust data, and policy context to help listeners read between the headlines.

Useful for:

• Investors eyeing global macro trends and China risk/reward calculus
• Listeners interested in the politicization of economic data
• Anyone wanting clear, pragmatic context for two of 2025’s biggest market stories

Next episode:
Alice Han’s new China podcast launches next Tuesday on the Prof G Media network.