Prof G Markets – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Why Markets Aren’t Scared of Kevin Warsh
Air Date: February 3, 2026
Hosts: Ed Elson (Prof G Markets), Scott Galloway
Featured Guests: Mark Zandi (Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics), Rich Greenfield (Partner & TMT Analyst, LightShed Partners)

Overview of the Episode

This episode examines two major themes in today’s financial markets:

1. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump, exploring market reactions, Fed independence, and what this means for interest rate policy.
2. The latest in entertainment and media markets: Disney’s stock movements post-earnings, the company’s CEO succession, corporate restructuring, and an analysis on the Warner Bros/Netflix/Paramount bidding war.

Hosts Ed Elson and Scott Galloway, joined by expert guests Mark Zandi and Rich Greenfield, offer sharp, real-world insights on why the markets shrugged at Warsh’s nomination, what Disney’s stock drop really signals, and why even gold is starting to act like a meme stock.

Market News: Kevin Warsh’s Fed Nomination

[01:59–12:00]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Market Reaction to Warsh’s Nomination

  • After President Trump nominated Warsh for Fed Chair, the dollar strengthened, stocks declined slightly, but bond markets were largely unchanged.
  • Gold and silver sold off after earlier gains. The reaction indicates the market was not overly concerned or surprised by Warsh’s nomination.
    • “I think markets expected Warsh and felt pretty good about the choice.” – Mark Zandi [04:21]

• Warsh’s Credentials & Independence

  • Warsh has deep experience: previous Fed governor during the financial crisis, investment banking background, strong relationships with global central bankers.
  • Despite some concerns about political influence, Warsh is considered “probably the most independent” among the options President Trump considered.
    • “He looks like a central banker, he’s very smooth, he speaks very articulately, he speaks definitively.” – Mark Zandi [05:54]

• Comparisons to Paul Volcker and Fed Hawkishness

  • Markets briefly saw Warsh as a modern Paul Volcker, hinting at possible hawkish policies, but the muted bond reaction suggests otherwise.
  • Warsh historically leans hawkish but is just one vote among twelve on the Federal Open Market Committee.
    • “Kevin Warsh is just one vote… there’s a couple, three votes that are inclined to lower rates almost regardless of what the economic data say. But the vast majority… they’re not going to vote that way.” – Mark Zandi [07:40]

• Fed Independence and Politics

  • Discussion on whether the Fed will maintain independence or bend to political pressure for rapid rate cuts, especially as the election approaches.
  • The timeline may dilute political impact: confirmation may take months, and meaningful rate changes before November are unlikely.

• Senate Confirmation Hurdles

  • Political wrangling may complicate the confirmation, as some senators threaten to block the nominee until DOJ investigations of the previous chair are resolved.
    • “My sense is that the President will figure out a way to stand down on the DOJ lawsuit… there really isn’t anything there.” – Mark Zandi [09:41]

• Jerome Powell’s Legacy

  • Powell praised for leading the Fed through COVID-19, achieving near-full employment and relatively stable inflation.
    • “If his goal is those two mandates, full employment and low and stable inflation, check, check, he did it.” – Mark Zandi [10:49]

Notable Quotes

• “He was Ben Bernanke’s right-hand man during [the financial crisis]… He knows central bankers around the world… I think it’s a reasonably good pick.” — Mark Zandi [03:29]
• “You can see why the President might like him… he comes from money, wealth, he’s married into the Estée Lauder fortune. I think that probably resonates.” — Mark Zandi [05:54]
• “I think at least in the near future… we’re going to get decisions [on] interest rates that are determined by how the economy is performing as opposed to what the political environment is like.” — Mark Zandi [07:40]

Disney’s Earnings Drop & Succession Watch

[14:09–17:30]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Earnings Beat, But Stock Drops

  • Disney surpassed expectations in revenues and streaming, but the stock dropped up to 7% due to weaker international tourism, high sports rights costs, and sluggish theme park growth.
    • “Theme park attendance looks like it’s going to be flat to down… They’re signaling weakness in international travel to the US.” – Rich Greenfield [15:33]

• Succession Uncertainty Looms

  • All eyes on the upcoming board meeting to name CEO Bob Iger’s successor. Investors are nervous, especially given hints Iger may depart before December.
    • “All signs point to what we’ve been waiting a very, very long time for, which is who’s going to succeed Bob Iger.” – Rich Greenfield [14:53]

• Who’s Next for Disney?

  • Josh D’Amaro (head of theme parks) is the frontrunner due to Disney’s dependency on theme parks for growth.
  • Dana Walden is also in the mix but less likely due to her entertainment background in TV rather than parks.
    • “To choose someone who is not the theme park person, I think at this point would be strange.” – Rich Greenfield [17:38]

Disney’s Corporate Structure & Future Strategy

[17:38–21:31]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Potential Corporate Restructuring

  • Greenfield predicts a possible split: theme parks, studios, and streaming remain together; legacy TV (ABC, ESPN) spun off as a separate entity.
    • “Theme park, studio and streaming all stay in one unit… you would take ESPN and ABC and all of those TV stations and ship it off into a separate entity.” – Rich Greenfield [20:00]

• Why This Matters

  • TV and sports are profitable but not growth engines, unlike parks and streaming.
  • Disney might eventually lean into gaming or interactive entertainment post-restructuring.
    • “If you got rid of TV and got rid of sports, could you lean into video gaming, interactive entertainment?” – Rich Greenfield [20:49]

Warner Bros, Netflix, and Paramount: The Media Bidding War

[21:31–25:43]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Paramount vs. Netflix for Warner Bros

  • Netflix selected as the preferred bidder, Paramount’s bid seen as underwhelming and risky due to high leverage.
    • “Levering up to seven times or maybe more to buy WBD sounds a little crazy from our standpoint.” – Rich Greenfield [24:33]

• Regulatory Environment and Competition

  • Regulatory fears about Netflix’s growing dominance persist, but in practice, YouTube is a much bigger player than any individual TV+streaming service.
    • “YouTube is the monster… it’s the number one use of anything watched on the TV.” – Rich Greenfield [25:06]

Gold and Silver Crash: The Meme Stock Theory

[25:54–End]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Wild Swings in Gold and Silver

  • Gold had its worst single-day loss since the 1980s (–10%), silver fell nearly –30%. $15 trillion in combined value erased in 24 hours.
  • Gold and silver now behave with volatility more typical of “meme stocks” (e.g., GameStop, AMC, MicroStrategy).

• Is Gold Now a Meme Stock?

  • The host argues that retail enthusiasm, social media and brokerage app recommendations (not fundamentals) may be driving the action.
    • “The real reason that gold is surging by this much and also crashing by this much is because it is simply the sexiest trade right now.” – Ed Elson [27:04]
    • “It’s like a Spotify playlist. None of these people have any fundamental or even technical opinion on silver. They are buying it because the app is suggesting it.” – Quote from Josh Brown [28:10]

• Central Banks vs. Retail Trends

  • Central bank gold purchases have actually declined, contradicting “hard money” narratives.
  • The frenzy resembles past financial bubbles more than a reasoned response to economic risk.

Memorable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “He looks like a central banker, he’s very smooth... You can see why the President might like him.” – Mark Zandi [05:54]
• “Theme park attendance looks like it’s going to be flat to down.” – Rich Greenfield [15:33]
• “It’s like a Spotify playlist… They are buying it because the app is suggesting it.” – Josh Brown, quoted by Ed Elson [28:10]
• “If his goal is those two mandates, full employment and low and stable inflation, check, check, he did it.” – Mark Zandi [10:49]

Highlighted Segments & Timestamps

• Warsh’s Nomination & Market Reaction: [01:59–09:03]
• Fed Independence & Powell’s Legacy: [09:03–12:00]
• Disney Earnings and Succession: [14:09–17:30]
• Disney Restructuring: [17:30–21:31]
• Warner/Netflix/Paramount Bidding: [21:31–25:43]
• Gold & Silver Meme Stock Analysis: [25:54–End]

Conclusion

This episode delivers a highly practical breakdown of how Wall Street is interpreting political changes at the Federal Reserve and the seismic shifts underway in America's biggest media companies. With colorful, insightful commentary, the hosts and guests disentangle market psychology from market fundamentals—explaining why markets aren’t panicking over Kevin Warsh, why Disney investors are spooked even after a solid quarter, and why even gold might just be the latest meme stock.