Prof G Markets

Episode: Zohran Mamdani Wins — Why NYC’s Mayor Race Was a Referendum on Inequality

Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Ed Elson (primary), with guests including Harley Finkelstein (Shopify President) and Jessica Toloff (Raging Moderates Podcast)

Overview

This episode of Prof G Markets is anchored by three central stories:

1. Shopify’s Q3 earnings and the evolving e-commerce landscape with Harley Finkelstein (Shopify President)
2. The unprecedented economic impact of the longest US government shutdown in history, with political analysis from Jessica Toloff
3. A monologue on the significance of Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City’s mayoral race as a referendum on inequality and late-stage American capitalism

Throughout, the show maintains its sharp, “no mercy, no malice” tone, emphasizing the inseparability of politics, markets, and economic life in modern America.

1. Market Recap and Shopify’s Q3 Earnings

[02:05–13:38]

Market Headlines

• AI valuation concerns dragged down tech stocks; Palantir down 8% after Michael Burry wagered against it.
• Bitcoin dipped 6%, falling below $100,000 for the first time since June.
• Tesla fell 5% on a major investor voting “no” on Elon Musk’s $1T pay package.
• Shopify’s Q3 earnings were strong on revenue, but profit dipped due to rising costs. Revenue: +32% YoY; Net income: -68%.

Shopify Interview with President Harley Finkelstein

Key Points:

• Durable, Consistent Growth:

  • “This idea of durable consistent growth... Shopify will do what we say we're going to do.” – Harley Finkelstein [05:19]
  • 9 consecutive quarters of GMV growth over 20%, highest yet at $92B.
  • Free cash flow positive for 12 quarters running; 18% of revenue.

• AI and E-commerce:

  • Shopify has embedded AI into company culture.
    • “Before you ask to, to hire someone, a new person, you have to first substantiate why AI cannot help you do it.” – Harley [06:20]
  • AI application ‘Sidekick’ is used by 750,000 merchants for analytics, photography, merchandising, increasing operational efficiency.
  • Shopify building for an “agentic” future: integrations with OpenAI, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot.

• Consumer Resilience in Uncertain Times:

  • Despite inflation and tariffs, consumer spending at Shopify checkouts remains strong.
  • Shift: Consumers are more selective, preferring brands they trust.
  • “Consumers are certainly being more selective. They are buying from brands they love.” – Harley [09:17]

• Modern Investor Relations:

  • Harley argues for open, transparent, multimedia storytelling in investor relations.
  • “Quarterly earnings are just a bookmark every three months... talk to investors, merchants, media, the public.” [10:56]
  • Founder-led, mission-driven companies better at direct engagement vs “suits” at “professionally managed companies.”
  • Earnings calls now considered important even for recruitment, not just investor updates.

Notable Quotes

• On AI in company culture:

  “Shopify has to be AI reflexive, meaning every person that works here thinks about how they can use AI to make their job better.” – Harley Finkelstein [06:14]

• On the importance of storytelling:

  "The way that I look at it is this is a storytelling opportunity." – Harley [10:48]

2. The Longest Government Shutdown: Economic & Political Fallout

[16:53–28:49]
Guest: Jessica Toloff (Host, Raging Moderates)

Key Issues & Stats:

• Record-breaking shutdown: 36 days (surpassing 2018's record).
  • “One in every eight Americans has gone without food assistance, 1.4 million federal workers have missed paychecks, and key economic data has gone dark.” – Ed [16:58]
• $7 billion in lost economic output (per Congressional Budget Office), possibly rising to $11B.

Jessica Toloff’s Analysis

• Human Impact:

  • “You don't feel anything more intensely than when you don't have a meal to look forward to.” – Jessica [18:33]
  • SNAP/food assistance cut for 42M people; food pantry lines escalating.

• Democrats’ Tactics:

  • Deeper Democratic resistance compared to previous shutdowns.
  • Holding out for restoration of Medicaid cuts and ACA subsidy fixes imposed by the “big beautiful bill.”
  • “Democrats basically dug in and they said, if you are not even going to have a conversation with us... then we can in good conscience fund the government.” [22:29]

• Political Optics:

  • GOP on the defensive as ACA/Affordable Care Act premium hikes disproportionately affect red-state voters.
  • Republican leadership facing calls to address “Obamacare subsidies” to minimize backlash.
  • “... undoing the Medicaid cuts from the big beautiful bill is really off the table. But we should do something about these Obamacare premiums because they affect Republican voters more than democratic voters.” – Jessica [24:53]

• Public Blame & “Let Them Eat Cake” Factor:

  • Visuals of Trump's East Wing ballroom construction and a flashy Mar-a-Lago party during shutdown create damning optics.
  • “It's even worse to see the Great Gatsby themed party at Mar a Lago... a very on the nose encapsulation of let them eat cake." – Jessica [27:56]

Memorable Quotes

• On Washington Dysfunction:

  “This hasn't been resolved because Washington doesn't work, which I feel like is the answer to every question that you could possibly give to a political strategist.” – Jessica Toloff [21:17]

• On Shutdown Optics:

  “While American workers are furloughed going without food, he [Trump] can pay a construction crew to do this.” – Jessica [27:14]
  “It's a pretty big middle finger to the people, especially his own voters, that are waiting in food pantry lines.” – Jessica [28:20]

3. Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Win: A Referendum on Inequality

[28:54–End]

Ed Elson’s Monologue

• Interconnection of Markets and Politics:

  • “It would be completely obtuse not to acknowledge the myriad ways in which all of these topics are influenced by politics. … You cannot divorce these things from one another.” – Ed [29:19]

• Symbolic Importance of Mamdani’s Win:

  • Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, is emblematic of a demand for a new system amid “late-stage capitalism.”
  • New York City as a microcosm:
    • Bottom 40% get just 8% of income
    • 60% of income to rent for average resident
    • Life expectancy gap of 17 years between richest/poorest
    • Most unequal city in America

• National Context:

  • National wealth and income disparities mirror NYC’s.
  • “The top 19 households have almost 20x their share of wealth, and they now control roughly as much as the bottom 65 million households.” – Ed [30:52]

• Mandate for Change:

  • Ed doubts Mamdani’s solutions, specifically rent freezes, but says:
    • “I think he is a generational symbol of the most important issues in America right now.” [31:32]
    • Inequality is “indisputable, untenable,” and Americans “belief in capitalism is at an all-time low.”

• Call to Action:

  • “The people of New York told us loud and clear, whatever this version of capitalism is, it isn’t working. And now the question has been posed to leaders around America. And that question is, what are you going to do about it?” – Ed [32:42]

Notable Quotes

• On Markets and Politics:

  “If you care about markets, well, by definition, you must care about politics, too.” – Ed Elson [29:50]

• On Symbolism of the Election:

  “What Mamdani correctly identified about New York and about America is that the system in its current form actually isn't working for people. The people reject it and they're calling for something else entirely.” – Ed [30:20]

• On American Capitalism:

  “I don’t believe in socialism and I don’t believe in communism. I believe in capitalism. But... whatever this version of capitalism is, it isn’t working.” – Ed [32:24]

Timestamps of Important Segments

• Shopify Earnings & Harley Finkelstein Interview: [02:05–13:38]
• Government Shutdown, with Jessica Toloff: [16:53–28:49]
• NYC Mayoral Result & Inequality Monologue: [28:54–End]

Tone and Closing Thoughts

The episode powerfully underscores the inextricable link between economic performance, politics, and social outcomes, railing against complacency in both markets and governance. It concludes with a challenging note: inequality is a now-unmissable crisis, and the election of Zohran Mamdani signals a country on the brink of demanding something fundamentally new from its leaders and its economy.