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We have had some unseasonably warm weather in February here, and if you're already stressed in February, the problem isn't the weather, it's the decisions you're about to make. Every year right about now, I start getting some emails saying, hey, John, should I start round one early? You know, what if my competitor is already out? Or what if I wait and lose clients? Today I want to talk about why early season panic is the fastest way to wreck your profit before the first application goes down.
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Today's episode is brought to you by Yardbook, the all in one CRM for your lawn care business. And as an exclusive partner of this podcast, you can get started today and begin simplifying your business and maximizing your profits. Sign up now@yardbook.com the link is in. The show notes time now for Profits with Paycheck, an essential podcast for you in the green industry who are looking to unlock the full potential of your business. Hosted by John Pajac, your certified financial coach, the show features in depth discussions with successful entrepreneurs, thought leaders and industry experts, providing practical advice and proven strategies on financial planning, operations, marketing and sales. Profits with PayJack has valuable insights and action steps that you can implement today for creating long term success. Now here's John Pajak.
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Welcome to Profits of Paycheck, the podcast where we talk about business strategies and financial insights for the green industry industry. I'm your host, John Pajek and today we're going to slow things down on purpose because February is when a lot of lawn care business owners accidentally make the most expensive decisions of their entire year. Now what I'm talking about here is, you know, we, we have had an a, what I call the false spring. And you know, we're in the northern part of the country. You know, we are, we just, you know, 20 days ago we were in sub zero weather, sub zero conditions. And now, you know, the past few days we've been in the upper 50s and even yet like yesterday we were like 64 degrees. It was, it was, it felt like summer, it felt like spring. And the thing is this can be a little, you know, it could be a little dangerous. And it's not because of the weeds, it's not because of the weather, but because nothing has started yet and everyone is guessing. I know this is not the same for the, you know, folks down in warm season turf. You know, you're probably out there already doing applications, you know, maybe you're still mowing, I don't know. But up here in the north, you know, if you're above a certain level. You know, we're still in winter and our turf is not growing. Our ground temperatures are still too cold. But this is what happens when, you know, you, maybe you, you don't have enough. You don't have enough experience under your belt or even if you do, you know, you start going, oh, man, things are coming up way quicker than I thought they were. You know, you start looking at Facebook groups, and this is when people start chattering and, you know, you start seeing some posts from like a super nice green lawn. But it's from like, you know, down south. You know, they might have, you know, some, some of their grass coming out of dormancy, you know, like Zoysia and things like that. Not, not deep in the south, because, you know, Bermuda is still dormant at this time. But, you know, for the most part, we're talking about, like, the transition zone. You know, maybe there's some areas where they still have green grass. But, you know, you start seeing, like, for me, you know, we, we do advertise and market in February. Even though it is a lot of times, it's still pretty far off from most people's minds. But, you know, you might see a flyer or a postcard in the mail, and you're like, wow, my competitors are already sending stuff out. You know, and then you might see a Facebook ad or a Instagram or some kind of, you know, digital ad. You see it and you're like, man, now you suddenly feel like you're behind even though nothing's actually happening. You know, they're, they're marketing. They're not saying, hey, we're starting today. And what happens is a lot of times guys will just, you know, they start getting fearful. And when that happens, you know, that's when things kind of get dangerous because sometimes they go, oh, man, I'm missing out. I need to, I need to get new clients. I need to bring new lifeblood into the, into the business. So I'm gonna just drop prices or I'm gonna keep my prices the same as I was last year just in case, you know, maybe you're going to, if you're doing applications, maybe you're gonna rush that, that round one and move it up because you think that the timing is going to be off. Or, you know, your, your, to your clients, your over promising start dates, saying, hey, you know, we're gonna start early this year. We're gonna get ahead of this thing. And, you know, obviously, you know, some people are maybe calling you and saying, hey, when are we going to get started, you know, and you're just like, yeah, yeah, we're going to, we're going to jump on this right now because the weather's starting to turn, you know, but, you know, you might be discounting work just to lock it in. And you know, that, that never helps anybody, right? And most of these things, they don't improve the results or your profits. And I will tell you that a lot of times what we just need to do is just chill. Like, just, just chill. Let it simmer for a minute, okay? Because, you know, if you, if you take a look at the extended forecast, might be 64 today. Well, guess what? In two days, we're, we're expected to have snow. And that's what's in our forecast right now. We're supposed to have snow in a couple days. It's going to be, you know, below 30 again. And then, you know, it's going to be the fluctuating winter weather. You know, we'll be in the mid-30s for a long time. So the thing is, it's like if you, when you start getting antsy, I know a lot of us, you know, we're, we're off for a little while and we're anxious and we maybe our. Our money starting to get a little tighter, but that doesn't mean you just go ahead and you, you throw everything that you work for away. And the thing is, you know, being first doesn't pay. You know, being right is what pays you. Because, you know, in, in example, you know, you have clients that are calling you and saying, hey, you know why? I think my neighbor's already out there doing stuff. Why aren't you out there? It's like, look, in, in the long run, they might freak out a little bit too, because, you know, they're sitting out on the back deck and getting some sun and feeling nice, and you're like, oh, yeah, the lawn. We need to get that lawn going again. You know, they, they get this false start too. You know, clients do that. But, you know, it's not that they're not going to remember who went first. They're going to remember who delivered the results, okay? Because it doesn't matter if you get started right now. It's more of a waste. Because a lot of times when you rush, especially with the application game, okay, let me just tell you this. If you put down your pre emergent too early, you're going to waste your control. You're going to, you're going to shorten that window where that product actually has Control over the crabgrass when it's going to germinate. And if you fertilize on frozen or inactive soil, it doesn't do anything. It just sits there. And in cool season weather that could actually cause things like snow mold, which is no, no bueno. Okay. I mean, you know, we, we still have snow in the forecast. If you put down fertilizer before it's time and then it snows on top, what all that is really going to do is, you know, the nitrogen that's, that you're putting down is really just going to contribute to possibly. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible that it can contribute and enhance the snow mold that could develop underneath. Underneath, even if dusting, you know what I mean, it can encourage that type of thing to happen. And the thing too is like if you're putting it down too early, you're, you're going to be burning labor and material before the revenue is really flowing. Now you're like, well, you know, I'm going to, I got prepays and I've got people that pay as things are going. It's like, yeah, but you know, you're, you're, if you're putting it down way too early, I'm not saying you can't put it down early. You can, you know, but you're putting it down way too early. It's not going to benefit you. You're going to end up, you're going to end up wasting material and you might not have as good of results because the efficacy of whichever pre emergent you're running may not last as long as you think it will and it might end up being, hey, we need to do a split application or whatever. So anyway, just, just remember you're not running a race. You're running a process and you're professional. Right? So what do we do when we're doing applications? We, we follow the soil temps and the GDD reports, you know, the growing days. I forgot what the GDD stands for. But anyway, Growing degree days, that's what GDD stands for. You know, when we look at tools like that, that, that puts us in the zone. You know, again, we're, we're going to be following the labels. Labels are the law on all our herbicides, all our fertilizers. Right. You don't apply it to frozen ground. It does nothing for the ground, it does nothing for the grass. And more than likely, you know, if you put it on a elevated area, like a slight slope, it could actually run off into waterways, which is another no good. It's not a good thing. And you know, a lot of times, you know, it's better to. I know we all have our programs, we all have our special sauce, if you want to call it that. But a lot of times, you know, it's, it's really good to follow the university guidelines. Like, you know, I follow Purdue and msu. Those two have really good agronomy courses, agronomy divisions. They do a lot of stuff and experimenting and everything. And I tend to follow their, their recommendations, you know, because they put the research in, they know it's working, they know it's gonna benefit, you know, during what times of the season. So anyway, when you, you follow these things, you know, we're as professionals, if we start getting our clients getting a little jittery, we just basically communicate clearly instead of reacting emotionally. But I'll tell you what I know, you know, it's not even March yet, but I'll tell you what it is a good time for. Besides marketing, your business is getting super early bird tickets for Equip Expo 2026. Now, if you've never been, it is a fantastic event. I've been going for many, many years, at least 10 at this point, and I just enjoy it thoroughly. If you want to go check out the newest, sexiest, shiniest machines and be able to go out and play them out in the demo area, equipX was right up your alley. Besides that, they have a lot of learning tracks. You could actually, you know, for all you fert and squirt guys out there, if you need to get your credits for continuing education, they do have some tracks and a lot of they're adding. They have seven states right now where you could earn credits while you're out at Equip Expo to keep your license up. But there's so many amazing events that happen at Equip Expo down in Louisville, Kentucky. You should just get tickets now because right now it is like the super early bird pricing, which is $25. But guess what, if you use promo code paycheck, you're going to be able to get Those tickets for $12.50. $12.50. You can't even get a burger and fries and a drink for that much anymore, let alone get to access to like one of the best trade shows in our industry. So there's a little link in the show notes down below or off to the side here. Equip exposition.com if you use PayJack as the promo code, you're going to save 50% off these super early bird tickets, you might as well get them now, stock up for the whole crew. You can take it, you know, a whole bunch of people for 1250. There's no limit to how many times you use that promo code. So get those tickets now, stock up, and I'll see you in October at Equip Expo. Back when I was getting my lawn care business off the ground, I was juggling routes, invoices, and customer notes with paper and prayers. It chaos until I found Yardbook. Yardbook gave me the structure. It helped me track chemicals, route efficiently, invoice faster, and most importantly, it helped me grow a profitable business. If you're tired of duct taping your systems Together, go to yardbook.com and sign up for free. And if you're ready to go premium, use promo code paycheck to get your first 30 days on me. One other thing I want to talk about, you know, when you do start getting the calls and the early itchers, you know, the ones that are like, hey, when are you coming back out? You know, I love the, I love my people. It's just, I know, you know, with the very warm temperatures, we get these calls quite often. What you could do is just maintain your calmness because calm operators, you really control the narrative. And, you know, here's what works is especially like in February, you basically just communicate with your clients that are, you know, the squeaky wheels that are reaching out and let them know, you know, tell them, you know, this is February, we might have a, you know, false start, and that's okay. And basically you, you're going to educate them instead of apologizing like, oh, yeah, I'm sorry, we're not out. No, don't do that. You know, explain the timing. You know, a lot of times about this time of year, I send out a little video that goes to all my clients and it talks about, like, the current weather. It's not a, you know, it's, it's usually a new video that we cut every year. And we're talking about the conditions that are happening. And then we just say, yeah, you know, we're keeping a really close eye on the weather. We're making sure that, you know, we're looking at the soil temperatures and all these things. You know, we educate them in a sense. And we don't say, you know, we're, we're waiting because it's cold. We're saying we apply when it's effective, not when it's convenient. Because a lot there's some operators that, you know, they have such a large client base that they kind of have to, like, as soon as the weather breaks, they're like, even though that might not be the right timing, they're going out and they're running. So, hey, if that's one. If that's what you're doing, hey, I. Okay, I'm not gonna blame you or yell at you or anything. I know you, you know your business. But I'm just talking about, you know, if you get that panic, it's just. Don't, don't freak out, okay? Just chill, you know, apply again. Apply and talk to your people about this. You apply when it's effective, not when ever you know, somebody else is doing it. Because when you're doing it that way, that's leadership and it's not defensiveness. But one last thing I kind of want to hit is, you know, your, Your profits are decided before your first application. Okay? And this goes for mowing as well. This goes for any service. You need to make sure that your pricing decisions were made in the winter. You know, you looked at all of your pricing. You, you calculated all the things, all the overhead, all the labor, labor burden, all your equipment, all the materials and supplies and everything. You know, you should have been working on this over the winter time and not waiting till it's nearly spring to have this all together. And, you know, by the time, you know, we actually start, your profits, your profit margins and everything, you should already have those locked in. You should be looking at what your equipment purchases were, that you had, your labor commitments, you know, did you overextend on them? You know, discounts that you didn't need to offer. If you start going crazy, like, at the last minute and just be like, oh, yeah, we're gonna, we're gonna just throw in a quick discount thing for anybody just because, you know, I, I just. I just don't wanna lose anybody. We had to raise prices, but, you know, we're gonna go ahead and we're gonna discount some people. So, you know, if they're complaining, we'll just drop the money. It's like, why, you know, you, you, if you did spend all that time in the winter to figure all these things out, don't, don't abandon ship. You know, if the seas start to get a little rough, don't, don't just jump ship right away. You know, if you spend all that time to calculate what you need to make, then why are you throwing it out? You know, this, this is what leads to the busyness instead of being profitable. You know, busyness in business is, oh, I was just working myself to the bone, but I'm not really. You know, it's like, well, are you really making any headway? Are you. You're just spinning your wheels and you look cool. You know, burnouts are cool, but at the same time, you don't get you anywhere. Only thing they do is burn up your tires and you got to pay for them. You know what I'm saying? It's like you're just adding extra wear and tear to your. Your vehicle when you're doing burnouts. I mean, don't get me wrong, burnouts are cool, but you don't go anywhere with a burnout. And I would rather be, you know, full lockup traction. You know, my wheels are sticking to the, you know, the drag strip, and I'm getting all the way down to the goal, which is that checkered line at the end, you know, and getting there in record time. But this is why I say, you know, February is when discipline matters the most, because nothing is truly forcing your hand yet. It's really like anxiety and fear, and those are the things that might be pushing you right now. But a calm business owner wins the season. The panic one, the one that's all freaked out and anxious, and you're basically going to be chasing it the entire time. You're not going to be. You're going to be kind of like out of control. You know, if we go back to the drag strip thing, the guy that does the burnout off the launch line, and he's squirrely, he's going to hit the wall. The guy that has traction and has a goal, and he is straightforward. He's the one that's going to cross the finish line. So, you know, just keep those kind of things in mind. So, anyway, yeah, I just want you to make sure that even with these weather swings, you know, the early season panic can cost you more money than bad weather ever will. And you don't need to be first out there. You don't need to be in a rush. You just need to be patient and have some discipline. So before March 1, you know, write down one decision that you're feeling pressured to make and ask yourself, is this based on data data or is it based on fear? And then I would suggest choosing discipline. So I want to thank you for listening today. I hope this is helpful. And as always, God bless, keep pushing through and we'll catch you on the next one. Thank you once again for listening. If you've enjoyed the show, please leave a review and share it with fellow business owners. Your support means the world to me and helps keep the show going strong. I want to give a special shout out to our friends at Yardbook. Their continued support has been instrumental in bringing this podcast to you week after week. If you haven't checked them out yet, visit yardbook.com and see how they can give you the tools to streamline and manage your lawn care business. Also, don't forget to explore the resources and upcoming events that I've collected just for you in the show Notes. These are curated to help you stay ahead in your business with the latest tips, tools and networking opportunities. Whether it's a new tool, an insightful article, or an event you don't want to miss, I've got you covered. Until next time, keep pushing through and God bless. Sam.
Title: Early-Season Panic Is Killing Your Profit
Host: John Pajak
Date: February 20, 2026
In this episode, John Pajak addresses the anxiety many green industry business owners experience during unseasonably warm weather in February. He discusses how premature action—sparked by "early-season panic"—can negatively affect profits, emphasizing the importance of discipline, proper timing, and resisting the temptation to react emotionally or follow the competition blindly. John provides actionable advice for navigating early-season pressures and making strategic, data-driven decisions for sustainable business success.
John Pajak delivers a calm, practical roadmap for resisting early-season panic and maintaining profit margins. By focusing on science, disciplined planning, and confident client communications, lawn care business owners can avoid costly mistakes spurred by seasonal anxiety—outlasting both the weather and the competition by sticking to proven principles and processes.
Quote to remember:
"February is when discipline matters the most, because nothing is truly forcing your hand yet. It's really like anxiety and fear, and those are the things that might be pushing you right now. But a calm business owner wins the season." – John Pajak (23:15)