Provoked with Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton

EP:17 - LIVE: Deal or Deception? Peace or Just Politics? Inside the Israel–Hamas Deal

Date: October 11, 2025
Hosts: Scott Horton (with guest co-host Kyle Anzalone, sitting in for Darryl Cooper)

Episode Overview

In this live episode, Scott Horton and guest Kyle Anzalone analyze the so-called Israel–Hamas ceasefire and peace deal, discussing whether it represents real progress towards peace or merely another political maneuver. The duo explore the realities on the ground in Gaza, the politics driving the deal, historical parallels, humanitarian consequences, and the wider regional and international implications, especially concerning Iran and Venezuela. The conversation is steeped in skepticism about the intentions and likely outcomes, and challenges mainstream narratives about the conflict.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Realities of the Gaza Ceasefire

• Ceasefire in Name Only:
  • Israel has announced a ceasefire, but is still conducting strikes at a reduced rate. Civilian deaths and ongoing violence persist.
  • “There was, I believe between 19 and 25 Palestinians killed today by Israeli strikes... death toll jumped up by a hundred something today.” — Kyle Anzalone (03:40)
• Comparisons to Lebanon:
  • Israel’s previous ceasefire with Hezbollah has seen daily violations, highlighting a pattern where “ceasefire” is interpreted differently by Israel.
  • “...about 4,000 ceasefire violations in less than a year.” — Kyle Anzalone (05:04)
• Expectations for Gaza:
  • The pattern suggests Israel will comply with the bare minimum, continue sporadic strikes, and use alleged violations as pretexts for renewed attacks.

2. The Political Motivations and Mechanics behind the Deal

• Trump’s Involvement & US Mediation:
  • Jared Kushner and Donald Trump are credited with brokering the deal, following a “handshake first, details later” approach reminiscent of Cold War diplomacy.
  • “That was how they approached this thing, was get both sides to agree...” — Scott Horton (08:08)
• Was It a Bailout for Netanyahu or a Play by Trump?
  • Debate over whether Trump intervened to bail out Netanyahu or exert pressure due to US/Israeli disagreements, especially after incidents like the assassination attempt in Qatar.
  • “Maybe there’s a narrative here where Trump is actually upset with Netanyahu.” — Kyle Anzalone (09:04)
• Hamas’ Calculated Gamble and Trump’s Promises:
  • Hamas is understood to be “gambling on Trump,” hoping he cares enough about the deal to enforce Israeli compliance.
  • The deal’s vague wording enables Israel to claim violations and return to conflict with US backing.

3. The Ceasefire Deal’s Provisions and Issues

• Intentional Ambiguity and Historical Parallels:
  • Previous deals broke down after hostages were freed and Israel reneged on further obligations (e.g., Waqf-brokered deal, January 2024).
  • “At most I think that’s as far as we get in this deal...” — Kyle Anzalone (20:19)
• No Real Path to Palestinian Statehood:
  • No mechanism ensures Israeli withdrawal or Palestinian sovereignty; reconstruction is unlikely due to ongoing blockades and Israeli obstruction.

4. Humanitarian Catastrophe and Gaza’s Future

• Unimaginable Destruction:
  • Gaza lies in ruins, with widespread displacement, hunger, and a crippled healthcare system, especially for children suffering amputations and trauma.
  • “The largest population of children amputees in the world is in Gaza...” — Kyle Anzalone (39:24)
• Intentional Social Breakdown:
  • Israel’s destruction of schools, hospitals, and community centers is seen as a conscious strategy to induce societal collapse and make life unlivable, eventually pushing Gazans to leave.
  • “That’s why they’ve destroyed all the schools, the mosques, the hospitals... making sure that none of those institutions no longer exist...” — Kyle Anzalone (34:02)
• Orphans and Generational Trauma:
  • The long-term psychological and physical toll, especially on children, is emphasized as a tragedy that will reverberate for decades.

5. The Israeli Political Situation and Obstacles to Peace

• Coalition Fragility and Extremist Influence:
  • Netanyahu’s coalition depends on figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, who threaten to collapse the government if Israel complies with US-driven peace.
  • “That would mean... the Netanyahu government would have to fall...” — Scott Horton (22:18)
• Hostage Policy Hypocrisy:
  • Internal Israeli documents revealed the government deprioritized hostages, contradicting its public stance and policy aims.

6. Regional Escalation & Risks of Wider Conflict

• Iran and “Deterrence”:
  • Discussion on the precarious state of Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s willingness to attack, and the potential for renewed war as Netanyahu seeks to maintain political power.
• US Foreign Policy & Venezuela:
  • In a wide-ranging tangent, the hosts discuss the US “regime change” agenda in Venezuela, the risk of war, the impact of sanctions, and how American foreign policy often worsens the plight of civilians in target countries.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:40 | Kyle Anzalone | “It does seem that there’s a ceasefire... that’s not really being abided to by Israel.” | | 05:04 | Kyle Anzalone | “I think... it’s about 4,000 ceasefire violations in less than a year.” | | 09:04 | Kyle Anzalone | “Netanyahu really crossed the line with the assassination attempt in Qatar.” | | 13:49 | Scott Horton | “Hamas really climbed down here... under the promise that Trump gave them that he really means it, that he will prevent Israel from going back to war.” | | 15:48 | Kyle Anzalone | “There’s thousands, maybe tens of thousands of unexploded bombs all over Gaza.” | | 17:16 | Kyle Anzalone | “They tend to use older bombs on easy targets, like houses full of people.” | | 24:30 | Scott Horton | “All it takes to win as an insurgency is to not lose.” | | 28:41 | Scott Horton | “It seemed as though someone had given an order that said let’s keep it at around, you know, low 100 per day... in order to not raise the ire…” | | 34:02 | Kyle Anzalone | “If you throw a bag of rice between two starving people, they might kill each other for it. And I think that’s a part of what Israel is trying to do here...” | | 39:24 | Kyle Anzalone | “The largest population of children amputees in the world is in Gaza.” | | 43:20 | Scott Horton | “They’re not going to do what it takes or they’re unable to do what it takes to do this without inflicting massive collateral damage on everybody...” | | 70:19 | Kyle Anzalone | “A lot of it is the result of the drug appetite of Americans, but that we demand that all these other countries in Latin America make it illegal.” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:12] – Gaza ceasefire status and ongoing Israeli attacks
• [05:04] – Israel’s “ceasefire” violations in Lebanon as precedent
• [09:04] – US–Israel politics; Netanyahu’s motivations; Qatar assassination attempt
• [13:49] – Hamas’ position and expectations from Trump
• [15:48] – Dangers lurking in postwar Gaza: unexploded ordnance and occupation
• [20:19] – Skepticism about the prospects for Gaza reconstruction
• [22:18] – Israeli politics, coalition instability, and hostage negotiations
• [24:30] – Insurgency logic: Hamas’ “victory” and limits to Israeli power
• [28:41] – Calculated Israeli killing rate, international outrage management
• [34:02] – Humanitarian aid, societal breakdown, and division among Palestinians
• [39:24] – Medical disaster: wounded children and a shattered health system
• [43:20] – Israeli military unwillingness for full-scale ground war
• [48:52] – Regional implications: Iran’s nuclear program and Israeli “deterrence”
• [51:53] – Viewership milestone; mainstream media irrelevance
• [53:52] – Venezuela as the next “regime change” project
• [65:16] – Discussion on US sanctions’ role in Venezuela’s collapse
• [71:28] – US drug policy’s destabilizing effect on Central and South America
• [71:28–77:16] – Wrapping up: Libertarian “realism” in foreign policy, recommendations

Additional Highlights

• Cynicism about Peace Deals:
  The hosts see little likelihood for meaningful peace, viewing recent deals as political deceptions meant to buy time, manage media, and avoid accountability.

• Maintaining Pressure on Israel:
  Both hosts advocate for transparency and activism, encouraging listeners to challenge the US government’s unconditional support for Israel and recognize the harmful impacts of its policies.

• Foreign Policy Realism:
  The show closes with a recommendation for Joseph Solis Mullen’s article on “Libertarian Realism” and Justin Raimondo’s work, stressing that US foreign policy is ultimately driven by domestic political interests and public choice dynamics.

Final Takeaways

• Skepticism reigns over the so-called peace deal; the “ceasefire” is treated more as a tactical pause than meaningful progress.
• Humanitarian destruction in Gaza is vast and ongoing, with immense long-term consequences.
• Israeli and US politics—driven by leadership insecurities, coalition dynamics, lobbying, and public relations—shape the course of the conflict more than genuine peace concerns.
• The lack of international accountability and the US’s enabling role are central to the ongoing crisis.
• Regional instability, especially regarding Iran and regime change operations in Latin America, is escalating and largely misunderstood or ignored by mainstream discussion.

For Further Reading

• Antiwar.com for daily updates by Kyle Anzalone, Jason Ditz, Dave DeCamp, and others.
• LibertarianInstitute.org for the “Libertarian Realism” article and newsletter.
• Recommended articles by Justin Raimondo:
  • Why Governments Make War
  • Looking at the Big Picture

For more, follow @ProvokedPodcast and the Libertarian Institute. Subscribe to the newsletter for daily foreign policy roundups.