Provoked with Darryl Cooper & Scott Horton

Episode 32: "Iranian Ultimatum"
Date: February 3, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton deliver a deep dive into the heightened US-Iran tensions, examining the psychological, strategic, and political dimensions of the current war scare. They analyze recent US military buildups, Israeli influence on American policy, the prospect of outright war, misunderstandings about Iranian society, and the domestic repercussions of U.S. immigration enforcement tactics. Throughout, they emphasize the human cost, propaganda campaigns, and the perils of misunderstood or misrepresented policy goals, all in their signature unsparing—and sometimes darkly humorous—style.

Main Discussion: The Iran War Scare

Latest Military Developments and Realities

[01:25] - [18:53] Darryl Cooper

• Massive US Naval Buildup:
  Darryl details the current deployment: six (soon possibly eight) US destroyers in region, some in the Eastern Mediterranean and others near the Gulf of Oman. Each destroyer, though well-armed, has limited offensive capability for a serious conflict with Iran.

  "If we're not going to war with Iran, then there's a whole lot of wasted fuel... There is a lot of equipment, a lot of ships that are either there now or headed over there." [01:25]

• Cruise Missile & Air Power Limits:

  • Tomahawk cruise missiles (32 per destroyer) are not the overwhelming force they're often portrayed as; limited by resupply constraints and moderate effectiveness against hardened targets.
  • Carrier wings (F-18s) would be vulnerable to Iran’s advanced (Russian-supplied S300, S400) air defense systems.
  • Air campaigns, while capable of heavy strikes, are unlikely to achieve regime change or decisive military victory without massive escalation.

• Risks of Escalation/Baiting Iran:

  • The US presence may be designed to provoke an Iranian first strike, thereby justifying all-out war to the American public.

  "It almost seems like we're trying to bait them into doing it... If they hit our carrier, it’s over. We're going to real deal war if that happens." [16:51]

Political Context & Iranian Perspective

Scott Horton leads, Darryl expands

• Motivations for War Questioned:
  Scott underscores public confusion—many assume a US attack would be justified, but political rationales are rooted in expanding demands pressed on Iran, not clear provocations.

  "It would be fair if people assumed, Darryl, that if America was going to war with Iran, then it must be because we have to..." [18:53]

• Israeli Influence, Moving Goalposts:

  • Darryl points to Israeli interests, noting Washington's demands now include not just nuclear issues, but drones and even conventional missiles—conditions no sovereign state would accept.

  "That’s an Austria to Serbia 1914 kind of ultimatum. It’s something designed for them to reject." [20:13]

• Regime Change, Not Nonproliferation:

  • US/Israeli policies are openly regime-change oriented, not about stopping nukes.

  "Michael McFaul... tweeted out today that a nuclear deal now would ruin our chance at regime change." [21:22]

Technical & Strategic Obstacles

[01:25] - [18:53] Darryl Cooper

• Iran’s Air Defenses:

  • Robust, with top-tier Russian systems (S300, S400), making direct attacks costly.

• Retaliatory Threats:

  • US regional bases—Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman—are all in range of Iranian missiles.

  "We still got American bases in Kurdistan and northern Iraq... We got the fifth fleet stationed at Bahrain..." [25:51]

• Shi’a Resolve & Misread Uprisings:

  • Both hosts argue that the religious/ideological underpinnings of the regime, combined with suppressed but not revolutionary unrest, mean US hopes for a “popular uprising” after airstrikes are misplaced.

  "That is a complete and total misreading of what those protests were about…" [32:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Baiting Iran:

  "It almost seems like we're trying to bait them into doing it..." – Darryl Cooper [16:51]

• On US Ultimatums:

  "That’s an Austria to Serbia 1914 kind of ultimatum... It’s something designed for them to reject." – Darryl Cooper [20:13]

• Regime Legitimacy:

  "No government leader in the world anywhere could submit to those kind of demands. They would just lose all legitimacy and fall..." – Darryl Cooper [20:57]

• On Regime Change Myths:

  "It was a regular organic government protest against the policies of the government... Had an insurgency, a foreign funded, foreign established insurgency made up, by the way, of a ton of non-Persians that sort of rode on the back of that and came in and took advantage of the chaos." – Darryl Cooper [33:19]

• Shi'ite Perspective:

  "If you think that the Iranian leadership, if you think that they are afraid of dying in a war against what they see as the Great Satan, you know nothing about Shiite Islam..." – Darryl Cooper [37:50]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US Navy Build-up and Capabilities – [01:25] to [10:00]
• Carrier Air Wing Vulnerabilities; Resupply Issues – [10:00] to [14:30]
• S400s in Iran and Air Defense Assessment – [14:30] to [17:00]
• Potential Baiting for War – [16:51]
• Nature of US Demands on Iran – [18:53] to [21:22]
• Israeli Influence and Regime Change Goals – [21:22] to [25:51]
• Iran’s Base Retaliation Capabilities – [25:51] to [28:50]
• Limits of US Leverage and Effects of Allied Pressures – [28:50] to [32:21]
• Misreading Protests in Iran – [32:37] to [36:10]
• Propaganda/Fabricated Death Counts in Iran – [34:14]
• Discussion of Shi’ite National Resolve – [36:10] to [42:07]

Second Major Topic: Immigration Enforcement & Minneapolis Shootings

ICE/Border Patrol Tactics Backfiring

[45:19] - [67:43]

• Scott critiques ICE and Border Patrol's conduct in Minneapolis—harsh, poorly trained, escalating violence, alarming even local law enforcement.

• Both hosts argue this is sabotaging long-term prospects for immigration enforcement by alienating the moderate public and undermining support.

  "All the people out there who were saying Darrell's a cuck because he's saying that the ICE guys or the border patrol guys shouldn't have shot ... look what happened. Trump is now saying anybody with a college degree... can stay." – Darryl Cooper [51:50]

• The real immigration debate was "already won" but is threatened by the perception of lawlessness and overreach.

  "It's going to take a long time for us to dig ourselves out of it, which means we need to focus on maintaining consistent public support over the long term." – Darryl Cooper [61:29]

• Skepticism Toward Conspiratorial Motives:
  The apparent self-sabotage, whether through stupidity or design, serves big business interests in maintaining the status quo of mass migration.

  "Big business wants all that because it relieves upward pressure on labor costs..." – Scott Horton [69:22]

Timestamps for Immigration Segment

• Intro to ICE and Minneapolis Shooting – [45:19] to [51:50]
• Professionalism and Public Perceptions – [51:50] to [61:25]
• Long-Term vs. Short-Term Strategy – [61:25] to [67:43]
• Possible Sabotage/Big Business Interests – [67:43] to [69:38]

Tone and Style

Throughout the conversation, both Scott and Darryl combine hard-edged analysis, skepticism toward official narratives, and a wry, at times darkly comedic, tone. They challenge audience assumptions, question "accepted" policy frameworks, and foreground the human and political costs of war and repression.

"If you think that they are afraid of dying in a war against what they see as the Great Satan, you know nothing about Shiite Islam..." – Darryl Cooper [37:50]

Conclusion

This episode is a sobering examination of the mechanics and motives of conflict—both foreign and domestic. The hosts reveal how military realities, propaganda, and political incentives combine to create cycles of violence that ordinary people are swept up in, often against their own interests. Their discussion warns of the dangers in escalating pressure on adversaries and in sacrificing broad public trust for the illusion of quick solutions, whether abroad or at home.

For further discussion, the hosts tease a future episode on the Epstein files—a topic acknowledged but left for next week due to time constraints.