A (28:30)
No, absolutely not. I mean, that would require a full scale Vietnam war draft. No way. I mean, you're talking, if you, if you put the entire US combat force, like the, the frontline fighting forces online, every spec ops unit, every Ranger unit, the whole frontline infantry, Marine Corps, I mean, you're talking about combat ready at any given time, like just over half a million troops probably. And that's for our entire mission over the entire planet. Right. To go into a country of 93 million and occupy. Well, I'll just, I'll just say like straight up, I think that there's just no way that's going to happen. I mean, it would, it would take things that, and unless, you know, unless some big giant nuclear bomb or dirty bomb goes off in New York City or something and they attribute it to Iran or what, it's just, it's impossible to imagine the political will to do what would be necessary. Especially when you consider, I mean this isn't like, it's not even just that we don't have the personnel. Like our, our military is not built for that. We don't have like the equipment, we don't have the type and the quantity of equipment that would be necessary to carry out an operation like that. And because it's just, you know, I think I said this on last week's show. If we wanted, we couldn't do Desert Storm again today if literally the fate of our country depended on it. We just do not have the force, the capacity in our force. So. So no, I don't think that that is on the table. I don't even think that's being discussed. I think we would nuke Tehran before we did that. Put it that way, like, before we did that, which I hope both are extremely unlikely, but before we try to occupy Tehran, we would nuke it now doing something where we tried to go in and take control of a critical node like Hog island and maybe try to hold that hostage to force Iran to, you know, to the table or something. Maybe that. That's certainly, you know, I could see Trump being convinced of that. Whether or not it's a good idea. I could see him being convinced of it. Especially when, you know, look, we, the. The mighty United States of America, like, we found ourselves in a situation right now where we don't actually decide when this war ends. Iran decides when this war ends, you know, because we can. Like, I've got one buddy who's very deeply embedded in the military side of the intelligence community. And, you know, yeah, he's biased because he's in the community and stuff, but he's not a bullshitter. And he's, you know, extremely confident that by, basically by the end of next week, Iran's offensive capabilities are going to be degraded virtually to the point of irrelevance militarily. But, you know, I was talking about. I was like, okay, but, you know, Iran's strategy is not like, whether or not that's true. It seems obvious at this point that Iran's strategy was never to defeat us militarily, to make us cry uncle, because we're just taking too much damage and we just can't take it anymore. They're clearly fighting economic and diplomatic, a very long game. And what that means is, you know, as long as they can take out a tanker every few days that's trying to go through the state straight of Hormuz, the insurance companies are not going to cover them. And, you know, if they can, they can send a few drones every few days and take out a new oil installation or something. They can force all of these places to shut down just like they already have. And so they can basically lock down the Gulf energy production and export industry basically indefinitely, unless we do want to go occupy the country. And so, you know what their strategy looks like to me is basically just hold out, preserve their forces as much as possible, lock down the straight, maybe bring the Houthis in at some point and lock down the Red Sea as well. And just wait, wait until other countries, you know that. Because, look, man, like all these other countries, including, like the Western European Countries and the Arab monarchies who, you know, they're all saying the things that whatever's on the cue cards, we give them to, say, our colonies in Western Europe and the Arab world. But they all know. They all know better. They know who started this war. They know that Iran did not want this war. They know. And they can stay on script for now. But at a certain point, the economic pain is going to get to a point where you wonder if that's going to start to break down and if that does, you know. And so if the goal is not so. I mean, not so much to, like, they're not going to shoot down so many American airplanes and kill so many American soldiers and destroy so much American equipment that we just say, well, gosh, we just don't have anything left to fight with. I guess the war's up. That's never going to happen. And the Iranians are smart people. They knew that was never going to happen. The goal very clearly is just to show that, like, look, it doesn't matter how much you degrade us. You can take out 90% of our capability. You can kill our leaders. You can do what you want if you want to fight. We can break the. The global economy, and we can do it in ways that specifically affect the countries in the region and U.S. allies. And so say when you want to go again, let's go again. That's how it's going to go. You'll come over here, you know, you want to do this again in nine months like we did this time, you're going to come over here and bomb our cities again and bomb some of our equipment that you missed the first time around or whatever. And we're going to lock down the region for another six weeks or whatever it is. And so that's clearly what they're trying to prove, is that that's a button that they have that they can push anytime that we decide we want to go kinetic with them. And it's, again, they have a much weaker hand than we do, and the Israelis do, obviously, but that's still a. They're. That. That's how you play that hand. I mean, that is definitely the way you do it, you know, is. Because what that does is it pushes things to a point where it's not just them pressuring us to stop this. I mean, we've got, like, allies not only in the Middle east, but especially in Asia, countries like Japan, Singapore, you know, countries that we're. They're very critical to our strategy in Asia, you know, and just in the Indo Pacific region in general, who they are hurting from this. I mean, this is a huge problem for them. And if this goes on very much longer, like, it's going to be a massive, massive problem for a lot of our allies, none of whom we consulted or told to prepare for something like this, you know. And so Iran's plan seems to be hold out, preserve as much force as possible, demonstrate that even with a severely degraded economy, severely degraded military, you can lock down the energy industry in the region at any, at any point. So that the next time, you know, Benjamin Netanyahu calls his slave in the White House and says we're going into Iran again, he's going to get calls from Japan and Singapore and all the Arab countries and a lot of other places that say, we don't want you to do this. And so again, it's a weaker hand, but I mean, that's how you play it.