Provoked with Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton
EP:39 – A Disastrous War (March 21, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this episode of "Provoked", Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton are joined by Middle East analyst and realist thinker Artemoine. Together, they dissect the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, focusing on the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, American involvement, and the broader implications for global power. The conversation is rich with strategic analysis, critiques of American foreign policy, and dark warnings about cycles of escalation and the potential for catastrophic outcomes. Special attention is given to the psychology of war, how political actors back themselves into corners, and the grave risks posed by an absence of credible off-ramps.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Escalation: Iran-Israel and US Involvement

• Israeli Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure ([02:13]):
  • Recent escalation after Israeli attack on Iranian gas fields shared with Qatar.
  • Cooper describes Israel as possibly "doing dirty work" by provoking Iran to strike Gulf infrastructure, creating chaos in the region, potentially serving Israeli interests by keeping the entire region unstable.
• US Under Pressure:
  • Artemoine explains that initial US plans expected a quick, decisive operation, not a prolonged attritional war:

    "The American plan... was to have basically 48 hours to 72 hours of conflict, decapitation, the regime capitulates, everything goes away."
    ([03:56], Artemoine)

  • Trump administration faces an "escalation trap," pressured by Israel and boxed in by early commitments.

2. War Psychology: Escalation Ladders and Proportionality

• Shifting Iranian Doctrine ([09:55], [11:11]):
  • Previously, Iran practiced almost mathematical proportionality in retaliation (e.g., launching the same number of missiles as bombs dropped by the US).
  • Now, Iran is deliberately escalating, targeting more and hitting economic infrastructure, signaling a more existential, long-war approach.
  • Artemoine:

    "The side that escalates in a conflict like this is the one that is trying to get every side more involved... we are fast and quite quickly moving up escalation ladder."
    ([06:52])

• "Madman" Theory and State Conduct ([11:11]-[14:00]):
  • Critique of Israel's "madman" campaign—acting with apparent disregard for red lines, targeting heads of state, and civilian infrastructure.
  • The notion that such actions are extreme even by historical standards.

3. Strategic Depth, Asymmetry, and Attrition

• Iran’s Advantages and Doctrine ([14:00]–[21:00]):
  • Artemoine argues Iran’s strategic depth, redundancy in command, and civilizational endurance have been underestimated.
  • American and Israeli tactical superiority is acknowledged but seen as insufficient for strategic victory.
  • Resilience and the capacity for "pain tolerance" are described as key difference-makers.
  • Cooper:

    "We have to inflict enough damage and enough pain... to get them to tap out, which seems extremely unlikely."
    ([21:49])

• Strait of Hormuz – Control Rather Than Closure ([22:39]):
  • Iran exerts control, not indiscriminate closure; allows tankers through selectively (especially for countries negotiating directly like China and India).
  • Leverage over global energy flows is a central tool.

4. Domestic Implications and Global Ripple Effects

• Economic Warfare ([25:09]):
  • Iran’s strategy is to inflict economic and psychological pain beyond the battlefield: attacking energy infrastructure, affecting global markets, and exacerbating domestic political problems in the US.
  • US administration waivers, including the controversial decision to allow some Iranian oil onto the market to stabilize prices, is seen as a sign of desperation.

  • "It's like Vietnam 2.0 with, with drone technology strengthening the hand of the asymmetrical power here, Iran…"
    ([25:33], Artemoine)

• Iranian Resilience and Sovereignty ([35:00]–[35:50]):
  • Decades of sanctions have fostered self-reliance and "rally around the flag" effects for the Iranian regime.
  • Iranian society is deeply divided, but external threats strengthen regime legitimacy.

5. The Joe Kent Resignation and "America First" Schism

• Resignation as Warning ([36:19]):
  • Joe Kent, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest, suggesting knowledge of "truly atrocious" options on the table.
  • Indicates a growing split within the administration and a crisis of conscience for staff unwilling to support further escalation.
  • Artemoine:

    "This sends a signal that there are people in the administration... unhappy. And he's opening the door for them to also have the courage to leave."
    ([36:19])

• America First vs. Trump Loyalty:
  • America First, as an ideology, is argued to transcend Trump the person. Serving Israel over US interests is criticized as an abandonment of "America First" principles.

6. No Viable Off-Ramps—Entrapment and Catastrophe Risk

• Inescapable Quagmire ([44:39]):
  • All sides face unacceptable outcomes:
    • Iran demands major concessions and enforceable guarantees.
    • Trump cannot accept a visible defeat.
    • Both are cornered by narratives and sunk costs.

  • "It's almost impossible to imagine the Iranians accepting anything less because... if we come back for round three... they'll be in a weaker position."
    ([42:42], Cooper)

• Regime Change/Civil War Scenarios ([47:27]):
  • Israeli tactics to destabilize Iran (via proxies and urban unrest) have failed.
  • US does not want total "Syrianization" or state collapse, but may be swept into actions with unforeseen consequences.

7. Ultimate Escalation: The Nuclear Threat

• Dangers of the ‘Escalation Ladder’ ([60:00]+):
  • Possibility of US or Israeli use of tactical nuclear weapons is discussed as a potential endgame if conventional means fail.
  • Artemoine warns:

    "I do think that... not because Iran is pounding Israel even, but because there is this impression that this nuclear bombardment works in Japan and therefore if that might work on Iran and get them to finally capitulate. Well, this didn't work in Japan..."
    ([64:00])

• Transition to Post-Unipolar World Order ([72:00]+):
  • The war is described as marking the end of the "unipolar moment" of American power, potentially resulting in a world of empowered regional hegemons and permanently weakened US global leadership.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On American Escalation Trap:

  "Unfortunately, I think that Donald Trump is stuck in an escalation trap... It's something that's really a big deal. This is not an excursion, as the President called it."
  — Artemoine ([06:52])

• On State Conduct in War:

  "States have this level of stability with one another no matter what kind of ideology they had... the idea that we are going to go and eliminate heads of state itself is something that's very out of, out of, you know, outside of interested relations."
  — Artemoine ([13:00])

• Iran as a Realist Power:

  "Iran has staying power... this is an existential conflict for, yes, the Islamic Republic, but also Iran as a state."
  — Artemoine ([20:00])

• Regime Change Fantasies:

  "You're not going to get regime change. You're either going to get state collapse, Syrianization, civil war and refugee flows and a failed state..."
  — Artemoine ([47:27])

• The Nuclear Temptation:

  "We need to have huge red lines starting now as to what is it that America is going to do to prevent the hand of Israelis either to use tactical nuclear weapons themselves or force us to do it in the hope or the illusion or delusion that some sort of a nuclear attack on Iran is going to change the trajectory of this war..."
  — Artemoine ([64:00])

• Systemic Change:

  "We are in this position in which this might escalate into this kind of a nuclear exchange. The first since 1945. And I think that is a death blow to American credibility, to American power. I think it's going to fundamentally reshape the world."
  — Artemoine ([72:00])

Important Timestamps

• 02:13 – Cooper introduces the Iranian gas field attack and its implications.
• 03:56 – Artemoine explains the failure of the original US war plan and the real Israeli objectives.
• 11:11 – Analysis of Iranian and Israeli escalation logic.
• 21:11 – The psychology and logistics of attritional war.
• 25:09 – Artemoine discusses economic pressure, Iranian resilience, and asymmetric warfare.
• 36:19 – Artemoine assesses the Joe Kent resignation and the America First fracture.
• 44:39 – Discussion of the impasse and potential outcomes for the conflict.
• 47:27 – Why regime change via unrest and proxies is unlikely.
• 60:00–64:00 – Warning about potential nuclear escalation.
• 72:00 – Contemplation of the end of American hegemony and global consequences.
• 74:45 – Closing thoughts and guest resources.

Resources & Guest Info

• Artemoine's X (Twitter): @Artemoine
• Institute for Peace and Diplomacy: peacediplomacy.org
• Agon Magazine: agonmag.com

Concluding Thoughts

This episode offers a sobering and wide-ranging analysis of a catastrophic war, disabusing listeners of simple narratives. It reveals the dangers of escalation, the complexities (and cynicism) of both American and Israeli war aims, and the capacity of Iran to endure and adapt. The prospects for diplomatic resolution are dim, with all sides locked into choices that further entrench the conflict. The show ends on a wary note about the dangers the world now faces, and the urgent need for new thinking and genuine realism in foreign policy decisions.