Podcast Summary: The Paul Morris Podcast
Episode: Top 3 Cities to Buy Real Estate in 2026 (Using Pro Data)
Host: Paul Mark Morris
Date: March 30, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Paul Mark Morris responds to a frequently asked audience question: "Where would a professional investor buy real estate in 2026?" Drawing on pro-level data and analysis (migration rates, affordability, jobs, cap rates, regulations, and climate), Paul compiles a list of the top 3 U.S. cities poised for real estate investment in 2026. He also challenges the oversimplification of national rankings and emphasizes the primacy of deal quality and local expertise above broad statistics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Criteria of a Professional Investor

[03:00-05:12]

• Paul identifies critical investment criteria: affordability, job growth, migration rates, cap rates, climate, and regulatory environment.
• Migration rates are highlighted: "Migration rates, of course, how many people are coming into a city versus leaving..."
• Regulatory environment is also important: "Are they overly tenant friendly, are they overly landlord friendly? Is it somewhere in between?"

2. Top 3 Cities for 2026 Investment

[05:13-13:35]

A. Knoxville, Tennessee

• One of the highest in-migration rates in the U.S., per data from migration aggregators (Migration Buddha, U-Haul, and others).
• Average home price: ~$350,000.
  • “You can buy nothing in Los Angeles for $350,000. So that’s the good news.” [06:50]
• Typical rent: ~$1,700/month.
• Job market is robust; regulations are balanced—not overly landlord or tenant-friendly.
• Cap rate: "somewhere between a 6 and 7% cap rate"—much higher than mature metros like Los Angeles.
  • “When you do that math... that’s gonna give you 6 to 7% cap rate.” [07:40]

B. Tulsa, Oklahoma

• Cap rate: 5-7% on average.
• Average rents: $1,300-$1,400/month, acquisition price in the mid-200ks.
  • “There are approximately seven people looking... for each particular unit. That is the sort of demand that is going to push pricing up.” [09:10]
• High renter demand, suggesting strong upward price pressure.

C. Savannah, Georgia

• Coastal market, diversified economy (logistics, military, tourism).
• Average price: low $300ks; rent: $1,800-$1,900/month.
• Lower costs than most other coastal cities in the southeast.
  • “Savannah's got great diversification, it being a port city. There’s logistics, military, tourism—a really good mix.” [10:30]
• Professional investors are “definitely bullish on Savannah.”

3. Los Angeles: The Anti-Example

[13:36-19:58]

• Despite headlines about migration outflow, Paul challenges simplistic conclusions about LA’s decline.
  • “I can tell you it doesn’t seem like it in my neighborhood...” [14:00]
• LA remains full—but with a shift toward more affluent residents as affordability decreases.
• When run through the same criteria:
  • Migration: negative
  • Affordability: poor
  • High regulatory burden (tenant protections, rent controls)
  • Cap rates: “finding a cap rate of about 3% on average for Los Angeles.” [18:01]
• Climate risks present (wildfires, floods, earthquakes) drive up costs, lower attractiveness for broad-based investing.
  • “Even when I ran climate through... you would think Los Angeles would win based on climate, and yet it does not.”

4. Neighborhoods Matter More Than Cities

[20:00-23:21]

• National averages are misleading; neighborhood-level demand trumps macro stats.
  • Example: Pittsburgh’s core (near University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and universities) performs well, while the outskirts struggle.
  • “The neighborhoods make a big difference... not a great way to buy real estate.” [21:10]
• Portfolio size matters: Institutional investors (REITs, etc.) need averages, but individuals can outperform by focusing on specific pockets—even in “bad” cities.

5. The Deal > The City

[23:22-26:35]

• Paul repeats: “The deal itself is so much more important than these other factors.” [03:02, echoed 22:45]
• Great deals can be found in every market—if you know how and where to look.

6. 2026 Market Dynamics and The Debt Wall

[26:36-30:10]

• “There is $1 trillion worth of debt that’s going to mature in 2026... $130 billion to $150 billion of that debt is totally upside down.” [27:10]
• Many multifamily properties bought in low-rate years (2019-2021) will face refinancing struggles, creating more distressed asset opportunities.
  • “You're gonna see a lot more distressed assets coming on the market. I’m seeing that.” [28:55]

7. Practical Advice for Investors

[30:11-32:40]

• Absentee ownership is risky: “Being an absentee landlord trying to control a property across the country—pretty much a recipe for disaster.” [31:10]
• Know your local market: Work with investment-focused Realtors, have financing ready, study neighborhoods, act fast on rare strong deals.
  • “Go find a Realtor in your area that specializes in investment grade properties... approach that person and see what kind of deals they're finding for their clients.” [32:15]
• The headlines don’t tell the whole story—local expertise will always win.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On National Rankings:
  "The advice that you get on podcasts, but it’s not the advice you’re going to get on my podcast because the national markets and the headlines don’t make sense as much as the study that it takes to find a great deal." — Paul Morris [32:35]

• On Local Investing:
  “My advice always is look in your own market... you will win in your market.” [31:20]

• On the Three Top Cities:
  “You’ve got Knoxville, Tennessee, Tulsa, Oklahoma, Savannah, Georgia. This is where the professionals are putting their money in 2026.” [11:55]

• On Portfolio Strategy:
  “If someone hired me and said, you know, we want you to buy 5,000 doors, I’d have a very, very hard time doing that in Los Angeles... but if you want to buy 10 properties, we can do that and absolutely beat a 3% cap rate.” [19:50]

• On the Debt Wall:
  "There is $1 trillion worth of debt that's going to mature in 2026. That's an average number. However, $130 billion to $150 billion of that debt is totally upside down..." [27:10]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:00] – Introduction to criteria for pro real estate investing
• [05:13] – Analysis begins; Knoxville, TN overview
• [08:45] – Tulsa, OK deep dive
• [10:20] – Savannah, GA analysis
• [13:36] – Los Angeles case study
• [16:50] – The importance of neighborhood-level analysis
• [20:00] – Example: Pittsburgh market nuances
• [23:22] – The deal > the city; why specifics matter
• [26:36] – 2026’s “debt wall” and distressed asset opportunities
• [30:11] – Practical investment approach and advice
• [32:35] – Conclusion and key message

Episode Takeaways

• The best cities for real estate investment in 2026, using professional analysis, are: Knoxville, TN; Tulsa, OK; and Savannah, GA.
• National “top city” lists are helpful, but the most important variable is deal quality and local expertise.
• Big market headlines often obscure vibrant neighborhood-level opportunities.
• Individual investors can outperform institutions by working deals in familiar markets.
• The coming “debt wall” in multifamily may create unique opportunities for prepared investors.
• Absentee landlord strategies are risky; focus on what you can control locally.

(For full context and local examples, listen to the episode on your preferred podcast platform.)