Loading summary
Transcript77 lines
- [00:00]
A
AI AI AI AI AI. Cut through the AI noise with AI solutions from PwC so you can solve the business problems that matter most. PwC
- [00:16]
B
some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to and when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now@bloomberg.com.
- [00:52]
A
For clues about what's on President Donald Trump's mind. Sometimes it helps to track the movements of the USS Nimitz, oldest serving aircraft carrier in the world. Last year she the ship goes by Xi in military circles, was rerouted to the Middle East. In March of this year, she embarked on her final voyage, which has turned out to include a stop in the Caribbean. More specifically, within striking distance of Cuba. A new US Aircraft carrier is moving into the Caribbean amid more US Pressure against the Cuban government. Last week, Trump told reporters, we have Cuba on our mind. That was just after the Justice Department charged Raul Castro, brother of Fidel, with murder for his role in the shooting down of two planes that killed four US nationals 30 years ago. A few days ago he said, we'll be, quote, freeing up Cuba. Look, it's a failed country.
- [01:52]
B
Everybody knows it.
- [01:53]
A
Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years doing something, and it looks like I'll be the one that does it. I'm Hanna Rosen. This is Radio. ATLANT is not the first president who said he wanted to save Cuba. In fact, American leaders have dreamed about controlling the island in one form or another for over a century. But no US President has really pulled it off. And yet here we are again.
- [02:22]
B
This moment in US Cuban relations right now is unprecedented. No US President has taken such a stark, combative, imperialist stance vis a vis Cuba. Certainly not in my living memory.
- [02:38]
A
That is Pulitzer Prize winning historian Ada Ferrer. We'll talk to her later in the show. First, staff writer Vivian Salama, who writes about politics and national security and who's been writing about Cuba for the last few months. Vivian, welcome to the show.
- [02:55]
C
Great to be with you, Hannah.
- [02:57]
A
President Trump tends to zero in on countries, as you know, Iran, Venezuela. And now it seems as if Cuba is next. When did you first start hearing administration officials talk about Cuba?
- [03:10]
C
Almost the moment that Nicolas Maduro was seized in Venezuela about three days into this calendar year. I wrote a story that said Cuba is next for the Atlantic because it seemed like almost immediately their attention, their interests were diverting to Cuba. That Venezuela was in a way a domino where they would ultimately want to topple the Cuban regime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is a central figure in anything we talk about regarding Cuba, this has been sort of a lifelong dream of his. Topple the Communist regime in Cuba, that Castro slash post Castro regime and usher in sort of a democratic future.
- [03:53]
A
So is that the kind of language they were using publicly, even initially, this regime change type language? Topple the regime as opposed to, say Cuba's a danger to the US or. There's many different ways they talk about countries that they set their sights on.
- [04:09]
C
I mean, you say they, and it really depends because President Trump packages everything differently from the way the rest of the folks in his administration do. Marco Rubio has been very blunt about toppling the Cuban regimes in the past. He has said it very bluntly. He has been very clear about that.
- [04:26]
B
The bottom line is their economy doesn't work. It's a non functional economy. It's an economy that has survived on
- [04:30]
C
subsidies from the Soviet Union and now from Venezuela.
- [04:33]
B
They don't get subsidies anymore. So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge are, they don't know how to fix it.
- [04:38]
C
So they have to get new people in charge. There's no ambiguity there. He has said multiple times over the course of the last few months that the Cuban regime needs to go. President Trump sort of waffles back and forth about it. He kind of says, Cuba's next, we're going in there. Those guys are no good. But he's been a little noncommittal as far as what happens. Because for President Trump, what he wants is a deal. He wants a transactional approach to Cuba, which is if these guys stick around and they just let us invest, you know, get money flowing between our two countries, then, you know, I can live with them sticking around. We build some hotels on the coast, we go in and take their minerals, for example. And, you know, that's a satisfactory solution for President Trump. And that's what we saw in Venezuela, is that, you know, the regime didn't change, just the leader changed. But the same regime has stuck around. And President Trump has been very satisfied with that. He has praised the now acting President, Elsie Rodriguez multiple times because she's letting American oil companies go in there and she's letting America do business in there once again. And that's enough for President Trump.
- [05:46]
A
And what about Rubio? Because we're used to Trump's interests steering policy. But the Secretary of State has seemed unusually influential on this One, Marco Rubio
- [05:56]
C
was very influential in this administration. In fact, it's pretty extraordinary how influential he's been. And we've been watching that now for a year and a half unfold for him. This is an existential thing for Western hemisphere. Politics is very close and personal to him. He comes from Cuban descent and grew up sort of with the stories of the communist revolution of 1959 and what it did to Cuba. So for him, it's very personal. And this is something that he's built his. His political reputation on. And remember, Marco Rubio, there is a chance that he runs for president again in the future. And so achieving this not only would go down very well back home in Florida, where he's from, but would also potentially prop him up as a lead contender for a GOP nomination, for example, whether that's 20, 28 or beyond.
- [06:46]
A
So he's the idealist in this situation. Trump is the dealmaker, realistic. You wrote this weekend about the mining industry in Cuba and how it plays into this latest conflict, which is, I suppose, what Trump is focused on. What is the story there?
- [07:02]
C
So, briefly speaking, you know, minerals have been the bread and butter of the Cuban economy, nickel in particular. Their mines have been very prosperous, and they've been able to, you know, once upon a time, sell their minerals to the Soviet Union. And when the Soviet Union collapsed, a Canadian company stepped in and invested in their mines and did a joint venture with them so that they could mine their minerals, and then they would export those minerals primarily to China, but also a couple of places in Europe as well. And so they have been getting a really good amount of revenue from those sales. Now, in recent months, the Trump administration has been looking to squeeze every last financial lifeline away from the Cuban regime in order to basically allow them to collapse from within. We saw the embargo that has been put in, the blockade of oil, and that Venezuelan oil, you know, that was something that was really sustaining the Cuban regime. So you cut off oil coming from Venezuela, he cut off oil coming from Mexico. And they were really suffering. In the last couple of months, I mean, there have been mass blackouts across Cuba. Hospital generators are not working, and patients are on the brink. People are not able to get gas for their cars. There have been protests in the streets, partially because of the fact that people have been struggling. And now they put sanctions on the mines. And that was a really key sort of final stroke to say, okay, this is one of their last lifelines. We're gonna try to cut it off. So this is twofold it's cutting off the revenues that go into the Cuban regime. It's also trying to pull away critical minerals from China, which I would argue that's a bipartisan interest, that the Biden administration was also very interested in doing similar activities.
- [08:47]
A
Yeah, I see. So there's tension always in all these motivations. It's like we wanna the regime, Marco Rubio cares more about that. But also we want to win this critical mineral fight, which is a self interested motivation.
- [09:00]
C
That is something that President Trump himself is very interested in.
- [09:03]
A
Right. Okay, so we've brought up Venezuela a couple of times and the analogies. Recently the Justice Department indicted Raul Castro. As you know, Fidel Castro's brother.
- [09:14]
C
They charged him, he's turning 95 next week.
- [09:17]
A
95, wow. Okay. Okay. Well, they charged him with being involved in an aerial attack that killed Americans, which happened 30 years ago. So I'm guessing this news is about having a pretext to arrest him the way they arrested Maduro. Like has anyone connected all those dots all the way to we're gonna do to him what we did to Maduro or not quite yet.
- [09:40]
C
100% they are connecting it. And in fact, when the Maduro operation took place in early January, everyone was talking about Cuba would be next in terms of what they describe as a law enforcement operation. Very. From let's say the Iran operation, which is solely a military operation. This is a law enforcement operation which means that the military supports what would be the arrest and extradition of the leaders. In this case, you know, it's not the President who's being indicted like it was in Venezuela. It is the old guard who is still very influential even at 95. When the Justice Department indicted him, they made no secret of the fact that they intend for him to face a jury of his peers and suggested hinted at the fact that they would do something very similar to what they did to Nicolas Maduro. And adding to that suspicion is the fact that, remember so many military resources were dragged to the Middle east to support the Iran war. The USS Nimitz just arrived back in the Caribbean about a week ago. And so now you have a carrier near the shores of Cuba, which added to the speculation that something was coming that might suggest a military or a law enforcement operation of some kind in Cuba.
- [11:02]
A
I know you've been talking to foreign policy experts. How realistic a sense do you think they have of what it means to do regime change in Cuba?
- [11:13]
C
So not only have I talked to experts, I've talked to folks in the administration who are very involved in this and you know, they are a lot more optimistic about the opportunities or the prospects of a regime change. It can be done with a lot of planning. They insist that a lot of planning goes into any of these operations. Obviously, we kind of question it once they unfold, especially after Iran. But in the case of Cuba versus Venezuela, there's so many differences that make it so much more challenging. In particular, the fact that seven decades of socialist Castro regime have all but squeezed the opposition to a point that they are not a coherent, unified opposition. They're scattered all over. So many of them are operating out of, let's say, Florida or elsewhere in the diaspora. Those who are domestic are under very close watch by the regime because they don't take dissent well. There's a lot of disagreements among them. And also, again, seven decades of one party rule can really do a number on a opposition movement. And so everyone I talk to from the experts who are closely watching this say, okay, you could stand up or lean on the Venezuelan opposition very easily because you know who the players are. They've even been elected by the people, but you don't have that in Cuba, so who are you gonna lean on? And then the question becomes, a, do the people rally behind that leader? And B, you know, how do you ensure that it goes well? Any kind of regime change where the US has propped up a leader that is not necessarily supported by the people has not gone well historically. And so this is a major concern for people. You have the risk of migration flows if things start going to hell in a handbasket. All these other issues that could directly impact the United States if an operation in Cuba were to go poorly. The administration insists that's not gonna be the case, though. And so it's a wait and see moment. The Trump administration is so wrapped up in Iran right now that it's hard to imagine that they have the bandwidth to fully kind of execute on a Cuba regime change operation. But they insist that the situation is ripe for change.
- [13:33]
A
Well, Vivian, thank you so much for explaining this to us.
- [13:36]
C
It's my pleasure.
- [13:38]
A
After the break, I talked to Princeton professor Ada Ferrer, author of the Pulitzer Prize winning An American History and her new book, Keeper of My Memoir of an Immigrant Daughter. That's in a moment. Lighting is incredibly powerful because it reaches places that we can't see.
- [14:05]
B
When I was at rpi, my grandmother
- [14:07]
A
contracted a MRSA infection in a hospital.
- [14:09]
B
One of the cornerstones of my RPI
- [14:12]
A
training was to identify real world problems and engineer solutions accordingly. That's what led me to essentially start VIVE using light in order to kill
- [14:22]
B
germs in indoor environments.
- [14:23]
A
I don't think we would have been
- [14:24]
B
able to build it into a successful business without rpi.
- [14:28]
A
Learn more at rpi. Edu Barraisers did you know if your windows are bare, indoor temperatures can go up 20 degrees. Turn the temperature down with blinds.com and get up to 50% off custom window treatments like solar roller shades and more during the Memorial Day mega sale. Whether you want to DIY it or have a pro handle everything, we've got you free samples, real design experts, and zero pressure. Just help when you need it. This is your last chance to shop up to 50% off site wide during the Memorial Day mega sale@blinds.com rules and restrictions apply. Professor Ferrer, welcome to the show.
- [15:07]
B
Thanks for having me.
- [15:09]
A
So the way we've experienced the last few months is news flash. You know, Trump has suddenly set his sights on Cuba. But from where you sit, which is a historian of Cuba and also Cuban, I imagine the feeling is more like, here we go again.
- [15:25]
B
Yeah, here we go again. You know, the US Setting its sights on Cuba is not anything new. You know, ever since the days of Jefferson, American leaders have fantasized about taking Cuba in one way or another. But still, it feels different this time. It does feel new because there's never been a moment in my living memory where an American president has talked so crudely about taking Cuba. You know, his famous statement back in March, I do believe I'll be the
- [15:57]
A
honor of having the honor of taking Cuba.
- [16:01]
B
That'd be a good honor.
- [16:01]
A
That's a big honor.
- [16:02]
C
Taking Cuba.
- [16:03]
B
Taking Cuba in some form. Yeah, taking Cuba.
- [16:06]
A
I mean, whether I free it, take it.
- [16:09]
B
I think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth? I mean, I don't. No one has. No president has spoken that crudely about Cuba in, you know, in over 100 years. So it is still startling to me.
- [16:23]
A
Okay, so let's make our way there. I really want to understand how he landed in this moment and what's the historical context for it. First, I know your latest book is a memoir, so I know you have a lot of family still in Cuba. What are you hearing from them at this moment?
- [16:40]
B
Well, what I'm hearing is just that things are awful. I mean, there's no other way to say it. You know, even, you know, cousins in Havana are going, you know, 22, 23 hours without electricity a day. It comes and goes. It'll come for like a half hour, and then it disappears. People, I have family in the interior, which is even worse off than Havana. And they're going days at a time without electricity. And that means it's impossible to do anything. It's impossible to turn on a fan at night to sleep. It's impossible to store food for any length of time. The price of food is just through the roof. You know, there's no transportation. Garbage isn't being picked up. You may have seen videos of protests, some in Havana, but some in smaller cities around the island, where people just start banging pots and pans at night and they're burning garbage because there's nothing else to do with it. One is picking it up. So it feels completely unsustainable. But it has felt unsustainable already for a while. The last time I was there was December 23rd, and there were already blackouts. You could see the garbage. But what it feels like now is just that, on steroids, with no apparent out, with no sense of what a solution will be.
- [17:58]
A
Yeah. So is that what you most worry about? That just that they'll be stuck in this situation for a while, or is there something worse that you worry about?
- [18:05]
B
Oh, I worry about. I'm a worry. So I worry that, you know, people talk about collapse, you know, or something being unsustainable, but we know from history that collapse doesn't just happen and then something disappears. Things can keep getting worse. No matter how bad they are, they can still keep getting worse. So I do worry about this spiral that never hits bottom and people suffering in the meantime. But then I'm also worried about the possibility of violence. I worry that maybe leaders in the U.S. imagine regime change or some kind of military operation is much more simple than it will be. I worry about violence of Cuban against Cuban. I mean, I know Cuban history. Times when there has been a change in government after an unpopular government. There has been violence of Cuban against Cuban, and I think there's a real possibility of that. So I worry about all of the above.
- [19:03]
A
Can you set up the story of the memoir for us, which is also the story of your own life?
- [19:08]
B
Yes. So I was born in Cuba in 1962. So a few years into the Cuban revolution and Fidel Castro's rule, my father left while my mother was pregnant with me. She was seven months pregnant with me when he left and came to New York City, and my mother decided to join him with me. So my mother and I left Cuba in April, April 29, 1963. She had to make the excruciating decision to leave behind her son, my half brother. Her son from her first marriage. He was nine and a half years old. And the reason she left him was that his father, who was a member of the revolutionary police, thought it wouldn't look good for his son to go to the US So he refused to grant permission for him to leave. So she left with me and left him behind, thinking that he would join us, that his father would relent and grant permission. And it didn't happen. So from that decision that she made, my brother and I came to lead two very different lives. He was traumatized by her, by our departure. A separation that was meant to last a few months, maybe a year or two at most, stretched on for 17 years. So he was 26 years old when he first arrived in the US during the Mariel boat lift of 1980. And he got here as a, you know, as a damaged young man. And the memoir basically tells the story of that separation of the family who lived through that separation and were influenced by it, shaped by it. And I think one of the things that history did is that it made me a historian. I just became interested in understanding this place that was always so present for me while I was growing up. It was present in its absence. Cause I didn't get to go there until 1990, when I myself was 28. It just nurtured in me this intense curiosity about the place, but also about the people.
- [21:18]
A
Yeah, I mean, the main things I learned from reading your books is that this long and tortured relationship is almost as old as these two countries, including many periods of violence and a dominating impulse from the US Towards Cuba. So where does this start? Like if we. You mentioned Thomas Jefferson, third President of the United States, just like Trump had his sights on Cuba, how was he talking about it then? How is the US talking about it
- [21:51]
B
back in the 19th century? Well, you know, it's a new country, right. It's a fresh republic. And it wants to extend its borders and it wants to ensure its security. Cuba has the fortune or misfortune of lying in a very strategic place for that right in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the major ports in the 19th century was new Orleans, where, you know, so much went out of the port of New Orleans to the eastern seaboard. This is before the days of railroad out to Europe. And Havana sits right there. So whoever controlled Havana could block American commerce. So that was part of the interest of early American leaders of ensuring the prosperity of American commerce, et cetera. And if you read what people like Jefferson and Adams were saying to us, it feels strange because they would Say things like, the well being of our republic rests on acquiring Cuba. And you think, why was Cuba so important? It's an island in the middle of the Caribbean Sea. But that was how they thought about it. And then a little bit later in the 19th century, you had people very invested in the institution of slavery in the United States. And Cuba, of course, was a slave society. It was from the 1820s on, the largest producer of sugar in the whole world. And one of the major slave societies of the Atlantic world in the 19th century. So the slave power in the US believed that if, if the US acquired Cuba, it could incorporate it into the Union as multiple slave states and that would increase the power of slavery in the United States. So Those were the two things that were really important in the 19th century.
- [23:32]
A
So back in the 19th century, the US leaders were talking about acquiring Cuba, essentially making Cuba part of the US that was the idea. And then what about from within Cuba? Because what you've just described is an American projection. This is what we fear, this is what we need.
- [23:50]
B
Yeah, well, interesting. You know, history is always more complicated than we imagine. From the outside or at the outset, there were people in Cuba who very strongly supported that idea. And they tended to be very wealthy men, powerful men. They were slaveholders. And if you think about it, the 19th century was also a time of increasing abolitionism. And the British were very powerful. They were policing the slave trade. They had abolished their own slave trade and their own system of slavery in 1834. So part of what Americans feared and part of what Cuban elites feared was that Britain might either take control of Cuba or they would exercise power over a weakened Spain and enforce the end of the slave trade and the end of slavery. So there were Cuban elites who saw the US as an answer. It was a way to avoid the abolitionist activism of the British and to protect slavery. So when slavery ended during the Civil War, that impetus to acquire Cuba waned.
- [24:56]
A
Right. Although the desire to dominate Cuba in some way never went away. Around the sugar trade, for example, where Cuba was essentially dependent on the US to buy sugar, and the US could then use that dependence as a political tool. I'm pulling us into the details of this history because when I was reading your books, it just became so clear there are these recurring themes to the US Cuba relationship, and we, we may relive them all over again. So I wanted our listeners to have that context. So what is the next critical moment,
- [25:27]
B
the next really important moment? And in some ways the most important, perhaps the most important moment comes at the end of the 19th century, when Cuba launches three different wars of independence against Spain. It's a process that began in 1868 and then the final war began in 1895, and it ended in 1898, and it ended with the intervention of the United States. The US declared war on Spain and fought against Spain and acquired the last remaining Spanish colonies. Right. So that was when the US acquired Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines, and with Cuba, you know, Cuba had been, for 30 years, people had been fighting for independence. So the U.S. i think, knew that it couldn't just come in and take over Cuba. Right. So the precondition for intervention was something called the Teller Amendment, which recognized that the sovereignty of Cuba lay with the Cuban people. And so what the Americans did was saying, we're going in for humanitarian reasons in aid of a sister country searching and seeking its independence. And once the island is pacified, we will leave because sovereignty rests with the Cuban people. Of course, that didn't happen. The island was pacified and they didn't leave. And then the Americans said, okay, when Cubans prove themselves capable of self government, we will leave. And then the Cubans had peaceful elections and drafted a constitution. And still they didn't want to leave to leave. In 1902, the US set up this condition, which was called the Platt Amendment, and it forced Cubans to include it in their first constitution as an appendix. And the Platt Amendment said, among other things, that the US had the right of intervention in Cuba. So basically, if the US thought life and liberty or American businesses were in danger, they could intervene militarily. It also prevented Cuba from entering into treaties with third countries, accruing debt from third countries. It also gave the US the land that later became the Guantanamo naval base.
- [27:38]
A
So the themes that are getting set up in this period is the US as a necessary savior, maybe to Cuba, and a thwarted desire for Cuban independence. I mean, it feels like those are the two sides here.
- [27:52]
B
Yes, exactly. It's funny, you look at political cartoons from the era and the American cartoons portray that, you know, Uncle Sam helping the Cubans acquire independence. And the Cuban cartoons, many of them, not all of them, are very different.
- [28:07]
A
You know, the period most people know about, the name most people know, and it's popping up again, is Fidel Castro. It's fair to say that at the very beginning, a young Castro was fighting for Cuban self determination. That maybe wasn't that explicit, but was on the side of we get to determine our own fate.
- [28:26]
B
I think the Cuban Revolution of 1959 is a fascinating historical event. I Think there's a lot of of misunderstanding about the history of it. That revolution was fought explicitly against the dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. The rallying cry that united all different revolutionaries was not about self determination, actually, and it wasn't about the us it certainly wasn't about socialism or communism. It was that people wanted to restore the 1940 Constitution. They wanted to restore democracy. It was a very imperfect, flawed democracy, but that was the thing that united people. Get rid of Batista, who had taken power illegally, restore the 1940 Constitution, and deal with the problem of corruption which was rampant. So those were the unifying forces. And then what happens is that Batista flees. By that point, Fidel has become the most important figure in the anti Batista opposition. It wasn't like that in the beginning, but over time, for complicated reasons, he became the most important visible figure. And the new government is set up and they get to work right away. They pass something like 1,000 decrees in a week or something like that. The agrarian reform comes five months after taking power. The urban reform reduces rents by half. That was three months after taking power. And so it's a moment of euphoria, of hope for change, et cetera. What begins to happen is that the new government begins to butt heads with the U.S. the agrarian reform in May of 1959 nationalizes some U.S. owned land. And that begins that process. It's almost like in those first two years, one government will do something, the other government will respond. The other government responds with a little more oomph than the other one does the same. And it just escalates until you have the US Embassy in Havana closed, the Cuban Embassy in Washington closed. You have planning already for the Bay of Pigs invasion. You have Eisenhower and other folks in D.C. saying we can't work with this government. So the confrontation with the US is not yet clear in January 1959. It becomes clear over the next months and the first year or two of the revolution.
- [30:53]
A
I mean, what's poignant and kind of tragic about this period is that the initial stages of the revolution seemed very amenable to an American vision. It's democratic. We won elections. Like, it feels like something the US could get behind. But then this enmity that you described drives everyone into extremes. Like it seems to drive Castro more sort of pro communist and less interested in democracy. It's a momentum which it's almost like we created the United States, created a more communist Castro.
- [31:29]
B
You know, historians love to debate, and there is a debate about that, right? Whether to what extent was Castro Communist beforehand or leading Communist. Right. So it doesn't all just come out of the blue, but I do think that the US did things that. That push Castro further left.
- [31:49]
A
And I think it's important to articulate all of this because of the place where we're headed.
- [31:54]
B
Yes.
- [31:54]
A
Like we're headed to another moment like this where we're intervening. And so to be aware of the effects that that has within Cuba and to the relationship at this moment, I think is really important. Yeah. I mean, your memoir, your latest book, centers around your brother. And one thing that really jumped out is as he's writing letters to your mother, just this intense longing, like for you, for his sister, for his mother, but also for the US like an idea about the US and just reading them, I was wondering, how did that sit alongside a kind of deep Cuban pride and longing for self determination and independence? Like how those two things coincided with each other.
- [32:40]
B
Yeah, I mean, they're both there. I mean, they're there in my brother's letters, but they're there in so many other kinds of sources. Right. There's a fascination in Cuba with American culture. If you look at the period before the revolution, most consumer goods came from the U.S. many of the movies people watched were American movies. They listened to American music. There was regular ferry service between Key west and Cuba. Tourism was a lifeline of the economy from the 1920s forward, and most tourists were American tourists. So there was this fascination with American culture. But then you had intellectuals who were very aware of US Political and economic influence on the island and rode against it. But it wasn't ever a kind of blanket anti Americanism.
- [33:31]
A
Right. It wasn't a cultural anti Americanism. So given this incredibly complicated history that you are very familiar with, when you heard Donald Trump or even Marco Rubio talk about wanting to change Cuba or lead Cuba to freedom, what was your first thought?
- [33:50]
B
Oh, where to begin? I mean, I had so many thoughts all at once. One thing that has struck me is the extent to which Rubio and Trump are talking less about freedom and democracy than I expected. I thought that that was all they would be talking about. And instead they seem to be talking about economic negotiations. Right. So that struck me. Rubio did a speech to the Cuban people in Spanish on May 20, which is Cuban Independence Day, and he barely. I don't even. I'm not sure he even mentioned freedom or democracy. He talked about Gaiza, which is this military conglomerate in Cuba that controls most of the Cuban economy. The thing I worry about is that the bellicose nature of Trump's rhetoric, rhetoric regarding Cuba is being matched on the other side by a Cuban rhetoric that's equally bellicose, right? So Cuban leaders are saying, we're not afraid, just come, we'll match you. It'll be a bloodbath. You know, that kind of we will resist, we will fight. And I'm not sure the Cuban government is understanding that that is not probably as easy as they imagine, because most people, you know, it's not clear they have the food to fight. It's not clear they have the will to fight. They are so beaten down by how horrible things are right now. And so I think both sides are underestimating how difficult and how much more complicated the scenario is than they're admitting. And then I worry that, you know, sometimes that kind of combative rhetoric can create its own reality, right? It mounts. So one side says something, the other side of escalates, the other side escalates back. And it can create its own momentum, it can create its own sense of inevitability, it can create its own kind of reality. And that worries me.
- [35:47]
A
Thank you so much for helping us to understand this moment better.
- [35:51]
B
Thanks for having me.
- [35:55]
A
This episode of Radio Atlantic was produced by Kevin Townsend. It was edited by Claudina Baid. Sam Fentress fact checked. Rob Smirciak engineered and provided original music. Claudina Baid is the executive producer of Atlantic Audio and Andrea Valdez is our managing editor. Listeners, if you enjoy the show, you can support our work and the work of all Atlantic journalists when you subscribe to the Atlantic@theatlantic.com listener I'm Hanna Rosen. Thank you for listening.
- [36:42]
B
The Atlantic has debuted a first of its kind collaboration with the Seabourn Cruise Line to bring great minds on board their ships for exclusive Seabourn conversations. If you enjoy this Atlantic podcast, you will love Seabourn, which is dedicated to exploring the world in yacht like luxury. Join us for a 12 day voyage with the Atlantic Discover the sailing from Montreal to Boston and more@seabourn.com.