Radio Atlantic: "A War Begun on Instinct"
Date: March 5, 2026
Host: Hanna Rosen
Guests: Missy Ryan (Atlantic staff writer), Senator Jeanne Shaheen (Top Democrat, Senate Foreign Relations Committee)

Episode Overview

This episode of Radio Atlantic probes the sudden U.S. war with Iran, an operation begun decisively and with little Congressional input under President Trump. Through interviews with foreign policy journalist Missy Ryan and Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the show challenges simplistic narratives and asks tough questions about motivations, decision-making, Congressional authority, and the broader implications for American foreign policy. The episode highlights the sense of policy made on "instinct," evolving rationales from the administration, and anxieties about Congressional oversight, transparency, and the cost—both human and strategic—of this new conflict.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unfolding Conflict: Rapid Escalation & Theater of War

• Uncontested airspace: Senator Jeanne Shaheen describes the overwhelming U.S. and Israeli control over Iranian skies, highlighting the military’s dominance (00:07).
• Spectacle vs. Substance: The Administration provides a play-by-play of battlefield success, yet offers no clarity on the underlying purpose or strategic objectives.
  • Quote: "The administration seems to have a great appetite for describing the theater of war in the moment...but much less so for the more abstract questions of the war." — Hanna Rosen (00:45)

2. Decision-Making: Gut Instincts and Preemptive Logic

• Trump’s Approach: President Trump justified striking Iran on a "gut feeling," claiming he believed Iran would attack first (01:01, 02:05).
  • Quote: "It was my opinion that they were going to attack first." — Donald Trump (as quoted, 02:05)
• Israel’s Influence: There is ongoing debate on whether Israel drove the U.S. decision, with both public denials and behind-the-scenes suggestions of Israeli pressure (06:51, 07:25).
  • Quote: "If anything, I might have forced Israel's hand." — Donald Trump (as paraphrased, 06:51)

3. The Role of Israel in U.S. Policy

• Close Alignment, Independent Motives: Missy Ryan notes Trump’s complicated but close relationship with Israel, pointing to both shared interests and Trump’s individual ambitions (05:09).
  • Quote: "Trump also had his own reasons for wanting to do this. I think he sees it as showing himself to be the president that other presidents were too afraid to be...Trump did." — Missy Ryan (06:33)

4. Shifting Rationales: Nuclear, Ballistic Missiles, Retribution, Regime Change

• Evolving Explanations: Administration officials switch between justifications: Iranian missile buildup, nuclear threats, retaliation for past attacks, regime change, and supporting protesters (08:40–11:23).
  • Quote: "There's this whole panoply, cornucopia of different reasons. And none of them feel...immediate." — Missy Ryan (11:08)
• Concern Over Clarity: Both Rosen and Ryan express confusion about the “constantly shifting menu of rationale” and lack of a clear, urgent justification (11:08–11:36).

5. Trump’s Foreign Policy Style – Breaking with Caution

• Confidence and Absence of Restraint: Missy Ryan attributes Trump’s actions to greater confidence in his second term and the removal of “constrainers” from his team, leading to more risk-taking, instinct-driven policy (03:49, 13:36).
  • Quote: "He and the people around him are willing to take risks and they're willing to kind of go with their gut in a new way." — Missy Ryan (12:51)

6. A New Era: The “Boiling Frog” Metaphor

• Gradual Acceptance of Drastic Change: The stepwise escalation of U.S. actions has normalized the previously “absurd” idea of war with Iran (13:30–14:36).
  • Quote: "I feel like the boiling frog a little bit...none of it is as shocking as it might have been if you hadn't had this kind of incremental lead up over the course of several years." — Missy Ryan (13:30)

7. Congressional Oversight: Powerless or Irrelevant?

• Lack of Notification: Senator Shaheen recounts that Congressional leaders received almost no meaningful advance warning; tradition has been broken (16:39–17:08).
  • Quote: "That has not been the case at any time since I've been here...the history and tradition has been to brief at least the leaders of the House and Senate." — Senator Jeanne Shaheen (17:08)
• Multiplicity of Rationales Concerns Congress: Shaheen highlights the shifting stories from the administration, lack of clarity on goals, and who is truly directing U.S. foreign policy (17:46–19:48).
  • Quote: "I don't think that anyone mourns [the Ayatollah's] loss. The question is, what happens next? What's the end game? What are we trying to do?" — Shaheen (17:57)
• Fear of Proxy: Americans worry the U.S. is doing Israel's bidding or acting without regard for its own interests (18:51–19:56).
• Costs and Public Buy-In: Shaheen raises concerns about the lack of public explanation, rising costs, and hardships imposed on Americans (19:56).
  • Quote: "None of that has been explained to the American people in a way that says you need to sacrifice...because America was under threat of attack. There’s no intelligence that I’ve seen." — Shaheen (20:31)

8. Congressional Power – Symbolic or Functional?

• War Powers Resolution: Shaheen describes the failed attempt to reassert Congressional authority; sees it as symbolic but notes appropriation powers remain (21:19–23:12).
• Challenges of Republican Control: Full GOP control and executive branch secrecy have crippled effective oversight (23:58).
  • Quote: "This White House is not briefing Congress. Not only are they not briefing Democrats, they're not briefing Republicans either." — Shaheen (23:58)

9. Incoherence and Inconsistency

• Lack of Coherent Strategy: Shaheen criticizes the administration’s foreign policy as inconsistent and failing to support U.S. interests in the region (25:06–27:04).
  • Quote: "That is not in America's interest. That is not consistent with American foreign policy that benefits the national security of Americans and makes us safer." — Shaheen (26:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies, uncontested airspace."
  — Senator Jeanne Shaheen (00:07)

• "It was my opinion that they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that."
  — Donald Trump (quoted, 02:05)

• "He and the people around him are willing to take risks and they're willing to kind of go with their gut in a new way."
  — Missy Ryan (12:51)

• "That's why I feel like the boiling frog. Because...none of it is as shocking as it might have been."
  — Missy Ryan (13:30)

• "We’re in it. There are casualties. The Ayatollah is gone. What happens next? What's the end game? What are we trying to do?"
  — Senator Jeanne Shaheen (17:57)

• "None of that has been explained to the American people… There's no intelligence that I've seen that suggests that America was under threat of attack by Iran."
  — Senator Jeanne Shaheen (20:31)

Important Timestamps

• 00:07–00:56 — Airstrike details, initial framing: Senator Shaheen, Hanna Rosen
• 01:01–02:10 — Trump’s rationale, coordination with Israel
• 02:18–04:54 — Missy Ryan on Israel, Trump’s instincts, changing constraints
• 05:09–06:51 — U.S.-Israel relationship, persistent “big swing” Trump policies
• 07:25–08:40 — Marco Rubio’s explanation: preemptive logic, “imminent threats”
• 08:50–11:36 — Ballistic missile logic, shifting rationales, murky justification
• 13:08–15:45 — Ryan on normalization of war, the boiling frog metaphor, lessons of Iraq
• 16:29–17:29 — Shaheen on lack of Congressional notification
• 17:46–21:01 — Multitude of reasons and American anxieties, costs, lack of public case
• 21:19–23:40 — Congressional power struggle, War Powers Resolution
• 25:06–27:04 — Shaheen critiques of inconsistency, botched diplomacy, American interests

Summary

"A War Begun on Instinct" deconstructs the impulsive entry into war with Iran, focusing on Trump's gut-driven policy decisions, the tangled U.S.-Israel partnership, and the sidelining of Congress. The episode emphasizes the proliferation of justifications—from imminent threats to regime change—without a clear, unified strategy or a compelling case for action. Both Missy Ryan and Senator Shaheen reveal deep skepticism about the wisdom and accountability of this approach, with Shaheen calling out the erosion of traditional checks and balances.

Listeners come away with a nuanced sense of the war’s chaotic origins, the challenges facing legislative oversight, and the broader question: Is this how great powers should make war?