Radio Atlantic: "After Khamenei, What Now?"
Date: March 2, 2026 | Host: Hanna Rosin | Guests: Arash Azizi (Iranian writer, The Atlantic contributor), Anne Applebaum (staff writer, democracy expert)
Episode Overview
This episode explores the seismic ramifications of the U.S. strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Host Hanna Rosin is joined by Arash Azizi and Anne Applebaum to unpack the situation inside Iran and the dangers, uncertainties, and global implications of America's abrupt intervention. The conversation cuts through political sound bites—particularly those from President Trump—to examine whether genuine transition is possible in Iran, what models might apply, and what the future may hold for both Iranians and global stability.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Context: U.S. Strike and Its Immediate Aftermath
- Trump's Announcement: The episode begins with news of U.S. strikes that killed Khamenei, a move previous presidents avoided out of fear of igniting a broader Middle East war and leaving a dangerous power vacuum.
- “There are reasons why previous American presidents haven’t gone after Khamenei...They feared that an attack on Iran would prompt a broader Middle east war.” — Hanna Rosin [00:30]
- Trump's announced objectives are vague (“very strong objectives”), with regime change, a deal, and calls for the “people to take over” all circulating as possible outcomes.
2. Powerlessness and Disillusionment Inside Iran
- Public Sentiment:
- Many Iranians once hoped for outside intervention but now feel powerless after years of repression and the massacre of protestors.
- Quote: “I think the average Iranian citizen...feels a lot powerless because they are looking at these big events...and there is not a lot they can do about it.” — Arash Azizi [03:38]
- Despite Trump appealing to the Iranian people to seize their destiny, the reality is bleak—there is no unified opposition or leadership structure for power transfer.
3. False Hopes and Nonexistent Opposition
- Trump’s Rhetoric vs. Actual Possibilities:
- Trump repeatedly tells the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) to surrender to “the people” but offers no plausible plan or understanding of whom they would surrender to.
- “...he says you should surrender, but to whom should they surrender? There’s no body to surrender, and why would they feel safe in surrendering?” — Anne Applebaum [04:45]
- State of the Opposition:
- Opposition has been systematically decimated. Exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi lack structure and “boots on the ground.”
- Quote: “We don’t even have 2% of it...we are not even to five out of 100.” — Arash Azizi on the readiness of the opposition [07:20]
- U.S. policy is inconsistent—swerving between regime change, seeking a deal, and referencing the “Venezuelan model,” none of which fit Iran’s realities.
4. Inside the Iranian Power Struggle: Who Might Actually Take Over?
- No ‘Gorbachev’; Possible ‘Deng Xiaopings’:
- The regime has deliberately avoided allowing a reformer in the mold of Gorbachev. However, technocratic figures like Hassan Rouhani, Ali Larijani, and Qalibaf may play pragmatic roles.
- Quote: "There are figures...the most important of whom is Hassan Rouhani, the former president, who really have given up on the sort of theocratic vision and who are more technocratic." — Arash Azizi [10:57]
- Two Factions in Play:
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- Pragmatic/technocratic leaders (e.g., Rouhani, Larijani) who are more open to negotiations and economic reforms for regime survival.
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- Military hardliners, especially new IRGC leadership (Ahmad Zahidi), controlling much of the economy and resistant to compromise.
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- China Model but No Democracy:
- Likely path: relax some social controls, seek international deals, maintain regime power, sacrifice some ideology—but no real political opening.
- Quote: "This used to be called the Chinese model in Iran...people who have sort of wealth and privileges in the regime itself, they’re not ready to throw it all to the wind." — Azizi [14:34]
- Applebaum warns: "It implies continued military control...it also implies corruption...not necessarily a recipe for long term stability." [16:09]
5. U.S. Policy: Lack of Follow-Through and Communication
- Reduced Support for Iranian Opposition:
- Since Trump returned, the U.S. has cut back on support to civil society, including Farsi-language broadcasting and State Department expertise.
- Quote: “We don’t really have channels to communicate with the democratic opposition...we aren’t really heard by the Iranian people in any sophisticated way.” — Applebaum [17:37]
- Impatience and Domestic Priorities:
- Trump’s timeline is political, not strategic—focused on quick results ahead of midterms rather than stable transition.
- “He doesn’t think in terms of what’s good for the Iranian people...He thinks in terms of his own needs to be dominant and show that he’s in charge and also his own electoral prospects.” — Applebaum [19:40]
6. Iranian Hopes, Disappointments & Long-Term Outlook
- Unrealistic Expectations:
- Many Iranians hoped a U.S. intervention would enable an easy transition—now many are disillusioned as civilian casualties rise and no democratic transition seems feasible.
- “With all my heart, I want a democratic transition, but unfortunately, I do see it as quite difficult....we just lack [serious organization] at the moment.” — Azizi [21:28]
- Historical Precedents and Structural Barriers:
- Applebaum: “Usually in a successful transition, there is some kind of alternative elite...but they have been so systematically undermined by the nature of the regime...it’s been very hard for them to establish themselves.” [22:50]
7. Extracting Dictators: A New U.S. Model?
- Unprecedented Move, Uncertain Strategy:
- The panel debates whether the U.S. is setting a new precedent of “extraction,” and question its selectivity—“we aren’t extracting Putin...or Xi Jinping...So it looks like we’re looking for weaker dictators.” — Applebaum [23:48]
- Lament the broader risk: global instability and the undermining of American reliability as a partner, dampening investment and economic prospects worldwide.
- “The US is increasingly seen as an unpredictable predator...not good for global prosperity.” — Applebaum [24:43]
8. Looking Forward: What Might History Say?
- How Will This Moment Be Remembered?
- Azizi: “...I think many Iranians...will see this moment as not just the president of United States making, but of Khamenei. It was him who refused every chance to reform...who brought it onto himself.” [26:20]
- There may be incremental gains in representativeness and civil society, even even if true democracy remains elusive.
Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments
- “Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.” — President Trump excerpt, [01:56]
- On the lack of alternatives: “We don’t even have 2% of it...we are not even to five out of 100.” — Arash Azizi [07:20]
- “Trump is all over the place, doesn’t necessarily understand the details or the gravity of the situation.” — Hanna Rosin [10:11]
- “They kind of know that the ideology and the sort of anti American Islamist ideology of the revolution has failed.” — Arash Azizi [15:47]
- “It’s a temporarily satisfying policy and maybe toppling the regime in Iran will eventually be good for the Iranian people, but it...doesn’t...create the conditions for commerce and prosperity that Americans want.” — Anne Applebaum [25:39]
- “I think Khamenei knew who he was dealing with and he really didn’t take any of the off ramps that he was given repeatedly. So I think they’ll remember...his obstinacy and how he brought our country to this point and they would be unforgiving to him for this reason.” — Arash Azizi [26:50]
Key Timestamps
- 00:07 – News: Khamenei killed by U.S. strike.
- 02:10 – Guests introduced; Arash Azizi and Anne Applebaum.
- 04:20 – Discussion of Trump’s “let the people take power” rhetoric.
- 06:30 – The weakness and fragmentation of the Iranian opposition.
- 10:57 – Possible alternative figures inside the regime.
- 14:34 – “Chinese model” for Iran outlined.
- 16:09 – Limitations and risks of technocratic authoritarianism.
- 17:37 – U.S. reduces support for Iranian democracy groups.
- 21:28 – Azizi on the lack of organization among pro-democracy forces.
- 23:48 – Anne Applebaum on the ‘dictator extraction’ precedent.
- 26:20 – Final thoughts: history’s likely judgment of this moment.
Concluding Thoughts
This episode lays bare the peril, confusion, and complexity unleashed by the U.S. assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei. Ultimately, the speakers agree that, despite bold pronouncements from Washington, neither Iran nor the United States is prepared for a genuine democratic transition. The Iranian opposition is fragmented and repressed, while U.S. leadership is impatient and erratic. The likeliest outcome is technocratic authoritarianism with modest reforms—and a population left asking, “What now, and what might have been?”