Radio Atlantic – “ISIS Never Really Went Away”

Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Hanna Rosin
Guest: Graeme Wood, The Atlantic staff writer

Episode Overview

In this episode, Hanna Rosin and Graeme Wood examine the resurgence of ISIS after years of seeming dormancy. Prompted by recent violent attacks—including the Bondi Beach Hanukkah massacre in Australia and the killing of U.S. soldiers in Syria—the conversation explores how ISIS, while losing its caliphate, has transformed and maintained its influence globally. They discuss the group’s operational shifts, its impact on diaspora communities, and the persistence of its ideology, especially as new attacks prompt questions about whether ISIS ever truly went away.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. ISIS’s Enduring Presence and Evolving Threat

• Metaphor for ISIS’s Resilience:
  Graeme Wood likens ISIS to a “self-lighting birthday candle”:

  “You blow it out and it looks like it's out, but then a little spark is enough to reignite it.” (02:57)

• From Caliphate to Insurgency:
  ISIS once held territory the size of Kentucky (2014) and commanded global headlines with its brutality. After its territorial loss, however, the group never fully disappeared; instead, it shifted strategies and continued to inspire and organize attacks around the world.
  (01:47–03:20; 06:50)

2. The Philippines as a Global Jihadist Hub

• ISIS’s Expansion Model:
  Through “affiliates,” ISIS absorbed local militant groups, notably Abu Sayyaf in Mindanao, Philippines, who pledged loyalty (bayah) in 2014 and became key partners in global jihadism.
  (03:52)

  “They would bring them on and get what they called pledges of loyalty or bayah… Abu Sayyaf became part of the ISIS network after operating as a local jihadist group for over a decade.” (03:52)

• On-the-Ground Reality:
  Graeme describes his reporting trip to Mindanao, detailing active military operations against entrenched ISIS factions and the persistent threat despite government claims of victory.
  (05:52)

• Tactical and Ideological Training:
  Recent attackers, like the Bondi Beach duo, possibly sought military or ideological training with ISIS in the Philippines—a pattern seen previously among Southeast Asian and Australian ISIS supporters.
  (08:33)

3. Bondi Beach Attack and the Rise in Antisemitism

• String of Attacks:
  The recent Hanukkah attack in Sydney is part of a broader anti-Semitic crime wave, including arson, vandalism, and violence in Jewish neighborhoods.
  (09:23–10:02)

• Complex Motivations:
  Wood notes that, while some attacks have ties to Iran (prompting diplomatic fallout), the Bondi Beach case points to ISIS, historically an enemy of Iran—highlighting multiple, mutually hostile sources of violence.
  (10:02)

• Shift in ISIS Targeting:
  Targeting Jews is a new focus; previously, ISIS prioritized fighting local “Muslim apostates” over Israel or Jews. However, after events like October 7, 2023, ISIS adapted with attacks on Jews and Israelis to align with contemporary triggers for radicalized individuals.

  “Jews are not the ones we're attacking. But obviously that's changed… I think ISIS, like any group, reads the news… Since October 7, 2023… the main cause… is Gaza, is Israel, and again, by extension, any random Jew.” (12:12)

4. From Caliphate-Building to “Homegrown” Terror

• Strategic Change After Territorial Loss:
  In its heyday, ISIS discouraged attacks abroad to protect its new state. Now, with no territory to defend apart from minor holdings in Africa, the group openly incites global terrorism.
  (16:06)

  “Now we're in a very different situation… ISIS's strategy changes. And so they focus first… where they do have territory… But everywhere else, they're now more in a terrorist mode of attacking elsewhere.” (16:06)

• Implications for Western Countries:
  Those previously motivated to travel to Syria now refocus violent energy locally:

  “Those people aren't going away… There's not an attack in Bandai beach like this every year, thank goodness. But we should expect a lot of the Islamic State supporters… that is going to be an energy that's directed inward.” (18:46)

• Public Perception and Media Attention:
  ISIS has not been headline news, but attacks have continued at a steady, if lower, level, often under radar.
  (19:15–19:32)

5. Connections Between Attacks in Syria and Australia

• Coordinated or Coincidental?:
  The Bondi Beach attack follows the deadly shooting of U.S. soldiers in Syria by someone affiliated with ISIS. While operational environments differ, both incidents underline ISIS’s ability to inspire or direct violence across disparate geographies.
  (20:15)

• Complex Syrian Dynamics:
  ISIS infiltration in Syria is complicated by historical ties among local actors—sometimes making it difficult to identify allegiances and prevent insider attacks, especially with shared local backgrounds.
  (21:23–22:37)

6. Directed vs. Inspired Attacks: Why It Matters

• Implications for Response:
  Whether attackers act on direct operational orders (“directed”) versus ideological self-radicalization (“inspired”) has significant geopolitical consequences—including possible military strikes and changes in international counterterror operations.
  (24:02)

  “If it turns out that Iran has told these people what to do… that could mean direct strikes against Iran by Israel… If it turns out that… the attack [was] from the southern Philippines, then it could mean a new wave of counterterror operations there… If… nobody told them… [then] you're back to the long term counterterror questions…” (24:02)

• Australia’s Ongoing Challenge:
  A spike in anti-Semitic violence signals deeper issues with radicalization among residents, demanding renewed government focus.
  (25:02)

7. Is ISIS Back? Or Was ISIS Ever Gone?

• The Power of Simple, Enduring Ideas:
  ISIS’s utopian vision of reestablishing the caliphate continues to inspire, even without a territorial base. The idea is readily accessible on the internet and hard to extinguish.

  “I think about it in a slightly different way. I think it's also that ISIS's inspiration has never gone away. For some people, ISIS had such a clear message… it's constantly going to be inspiring a few people and a few of those people are going to end up being violent… These ideas, they turn out to be very resilient, and long after we forgot about them, other people have resources. Remember them well.” (25:59–27:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ISIS’s Resilience

  "It's sort of like a self-lighting birthday candle… it's going to be really difficult to find out the other places where another spark has not been totally extinguished and could come back and reignite."
  — Graeme Wood (02:57)

• On the New Focus on Jewish Targets

  "If you looked at the focus of ISIS activity in the past, you would not see a lot of attacks on Jewish groups or on Israel… But obviously, that's changed."
  — Graeme Wood (12:12)

• On Homegrown Attacks

  "…We should expect a lot of the Islamic State supporters who in the past have been focused on trying to travel to Islamic State territory and be Muslims there. That is going to be an energy that's directed inward."
  — Graeme Wood (18:46)

• On Ideological Persistence

  "ISIS’s inspiration has never gone away… These ideas, they turn out to be very resilient, and long after we forgot about them, other people have resources. Remember them well."
  — Graeme Wood (25:59–27:18)

Key Timestamps

• ISIS’s peak and defeat recap: 01:47–02:57
• Graeme Wood describes ISIS’s affiliates (Philippines focus): 03:52–05:36
• Insight into Mindanao/Philippines as ISIS hub: 05:52–06:41
• Analysis of Bondi Beach attackers’ likely motives/training: 08:33–09:23
• Context of anti-Semitic attacks in Australia: 09:23–10:02
• Discussion of the shift in ISIS targeting (focusing on Jews): 12:12
• Graeme explains ISIS’s transition from caliphate to insurgency/terror mode: 16:06–18:46
• Comparing attacks in Syria and Australia, complications in Syria: 20:15–22:37
• Directed vs. inspired terrorism—why it matters: 24:02–25:31
• Reflection on persistence of ISIS ideology and future threats: 25:59–27:18

Conclusion

This episode of Radio Atlantic challenges the notion that ISIS has disappeared, revealing instead a group that has shifted tactics but remains ideologically potent and operationally dangerous. Through global affiliations and adaptive messaging, ISIS continues to ignite violence far beyond its former Middle Eastern caliphate. The conversation stresses the importance of vigilance, recognizing both the enduring allure of radical visions and the adaptability of terrorist networks—as well as the need for nuanced, coordinated international responses.