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- [00:05]
A
They say if you're the smartest person in the room, you're in the wrong room. The idea being that we only get better when we surround ourselves with people who are brighter, more experienced, or more talented than we are. My name is John Dick, and I'm never, ever in the wrong room. At my company, Civic Science, the brightest minds in the world are studying people, culture, and markets in revolutionary new ways, providing glimpses into a future you've never seen before. Me, I drank my way through a party school in college and only became an entrepreneur because I couldn't get a real job doing anything else. I owe everything to a long list of colleagues, mentors, and friends who made me better, or at least made me look better. So I started a podcast to introduce you to some of the brilliant people I've encountered along the way. You'll meet visionaries in business, technology, media, entertainment, even politics. They'll tell us how they see the future and how they're making it happen. But we'll also keep it real. You don't go through life with the last name Dick without learning how to laugh at yourself. So we'll ask these incredibly successful people to share some of their most embarrassing stories, their dumbest mistakes, and how they made them into the people they are today. And we'll do all of that with data at the center of everything, because the world has never been in greater need of truth, and you can only get there with honest, objective, and reliable data, which is what civic science is all about. So please subscribe to this show on your favorite podcast player. Come listen to some of the smartest people I've ever met, and me, the dumbest guy in the room.
- [01:47]
B
A decade ago, ISIS was infamous worldwide. At its peak in 2014, the jihadist group controlled territory in Iraq and Syria roughly the size of Kentucky. It declared itself a caliphate with authority over Muslims everywhere. Hard to forget from that period were the beheading videos, which ISIS released as a twisted form of propaganda. Five years later, the group lost control of that territory. And then, for the most part, we didn't hear much about them. ISIS disappeared from the headlines until this week in Syria. Someone the Pentagon believes is affiliated with ISIS killed two US soldiers and an interpreter. And then, of course, Bondi beach in Australia, a father and son killed 15 people at a Hanukkah celebration. They were found to have homemade ISIS flags in their car. And they'd also recently traveled to the southern Philippines with which has seen Islamist violence for years. I'm Hanna Rosen. This is Radio Atlantic, and today is ISIS back.
- [02:58]
C
It's sort of like a self lighting birthday candle where you blow it out and it looks like it's out, but then little spark is enough to reignite it. And so what we're seeing right now is the reignition after some years of a spark in this one place and. And it's going to be really difficult to find out the other places where another spark has not been totally extinguished and could come back and reignite.
- [03:21]
B
Staff writer Graham Wood has traveled the world, throughout the Middle east, the Philippines, and even Australia in order to interview ISIS members and supporters. In 2016, he wrote a book about the group the Way of the Encounters with the Islamic State. He's kept an eye on ISIS ever since. Today he talks to us about how in the years after the group's defeat, ISIS never really went away and about what the recent violence might mean.
- [03:52]
C
You know what's always interesting with these attacks, because some people can be sort of fanboys of ISIS and they carry the icons of ISIS with them, but don't know much about it. These people traveled to Mindanao in the southern Philippines, which we don't hear that much about in the Americas, because we think of ISIS in its heyday as being centered in Syria, which it was. But ISIS had this brilliant idea of kind of bringing in affiliates where they would find groups that were already Islamist in some way, maybe not Islamist in exactly the same way as isis, but they would bring them on and get what they called pledges of loyalty or bayah from them. And in the Philippines, they found an excellent target, which was a group called Abu Sayyaf, which was already fighting against the Philippine government, was already Islamist, and that just needed a little bit of help from ISIS Central Command to kind of go pro and join the big leagues of international global jihadism. And that's what happened in 2014 was that Abu Sayyaf became part of the ISIS network after operating as a local jihadist group for over a decade in the southern Philippines. And back in 2014, 2015, some of the people who I interviewed at great length in Australia, they were supporters of ISIS who didn't even consider going to Syria. They went to or tried to go to the southern Philippines because that's where they thought the center of gravity was. And that's exactly where the two alleged killers in Bondi beach, one of whom is dead, and the other one is just waking up from a coma right now. Mindanao, where they went about a month before the attack. So that's awfully suspicious.
- [05:36]
B
All right, so you've been to Mindanao. Walk me through what happens there. And we'll caveat this by saying we don't have details about what this duo actually did there or who they met with quite yet. But what did you learn when you were reporting in Mindanao?
- [05:52]
C
I went to Mindanao in the southern Philippines in 2016, and I was looking for ISIS activity, and that's what I found. There was a very heavy Philippine military contingent that was doing counterterrorism operations there because they knew that ISIS was operating at such strength that it would actually control territory. There would be villages that would come under its control temporarily, and then there were areas that it controlled permanently. And it took another year or so until the Philippine government really started to get the upper hand, and they claimed to have eliminated it. But of course, there are still attacks going on. And if you are in that part of the world that is Asia, and you want to go and find ISIS activity and hook up with ISIS people, then that's probably where you would go. And that's where the two killers in Bondi beach seem to have gone.
- [06:42]
B
And that remains true to this day because you're describing a trip that happened about eight years ago, but you're saying that the activity has continued.
- [06:50]
C
Yeah. So ISIS has sort of two operational modes. The first one is where they control territory and they can implement Islamic law, as they see it. The second mode is where they're attempting to get that territory, and up until 2017, it actually controlled that territory and could do their ISIS thing. Since then, they've been in this other mode where they're more like an insurgency. So if these two guys went there and connected with ISIS there, then they were connecting with people who were in military mode rather than governance mode. And if they came back, they came back with instructions in that regard.
- [07:27]
B
Okay, so what details do we actually have about their trip there, just to be clear?
- [07:33]
C
Yeah, we have confirmation from the government of the Philippines that they arrived, what their citizenships were and their names, which pretty much narrows down that it was actually them and that they went listing their destination as Davao City, which is the largest city in Mindanao, and not a city that has ever been controlled by or even controlled come close to being controlled by isis. But it is the gateway to the south of the Philippines where there are places that have been controlled by isis. And we don't know where they went from Davao. There are innocent reasons to go to Davao, and there are very sinister reasons. And the fact that these guys perpetrated a mass killing, it appears when they came back, of course, makes Us think that the sinister reasons are the ones that apply.
- [08:15]
B
Right, okay, so now we're in speculation territory. But if you had to speculate, what is the picture that you would put together, like fill in the dots, what would actually happen to them there that would aid them in committing this act? This is speculation, but yeah, we do.
- [08:34]
C
Have to speculate, of course. I mean, neither of these guys is a trained soldier or gunman, so even getting a little bit of tactical training could be helpful to them. The dad, I believe, was a fruit salesman, fruiterer, as they called him in Australian, and the son was an out of work bricklayer. So neither of these guys kill people for a living. And, you know, you can see in the videos that they're moving around somewhat competently, not totally incompetently. Remember, one of them had his weapon taken away by another fruiterer, actually. And so that doesn't suggest that he was the most competent person. But if you go to the Philippines and you connect with people who have been fighting for a while, then you can get ideological connection, you can get military training, and then you can come back being a bit more deadly than you would have been had you not gone there.
- [09:24]
B
So that's these two guys and this very specific training. I wanna broaden out to get the context a little bit more of the context. So going back to Australia, there have been this series of anti Semitic incidents in the country. A kosher deli in Sydney, a synagogue in Melbourne that were set on fire last year. Homes and cars and largely Jewish neighborhoods in Sydney were vandalized with anti Semitic hate speech. Another Melbourn synagogue was set on fire back in July. And now this attack. Do experts see these events as connected or related to what happened in Bondi Beach? Like, how do you put that bigger picture together?
- [10:03]
C
Well, Bondi beach is part of the eastern suburbs of Sydney, where it's just known it's a center of Jewish community and residential communal life. So if there's going to be a background level of anti Semitic violence, which there unquestionably has been since 2023, then that is going to be expected to be one of the where you're going to see that. And indeed, that's where you have you mentioned the firebombing of a deli, but there's also things like cars that are being destroyed mysteriously in these neighborhoods. And I think a lot of Australian Jews and residents in that area very reasonably see this as part of an anti Semitic crime wave. Now, the origins of it are a bit hazier and there's reasons to think that there might be independent origins of some of these attacks. In the case of the firebombing of the Delhi in Bondi beach in 2024 and of the synagogue in Melbourne, the Australian government has just come out and said this is done with the direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is a really bold statement to make to accuse a foreign government of doing that. And they in fact expelled the ambassador of Iran as a result of this. A very, very high level step. So that's one kind of flow of these incidents. The other, though, seems to be different. Like these two guys, there's speculation of whether they are directed by Iran, but most of the evidence is suggesting that they're directed by the Islamic State, which is an enemy of Iran that has fought the Islamic Republic of Iran on several fronts. And so it would be weird if they were cooperating with Iran. What instead you've got is multiple forms of jihadism that in the last couple years seem to be directed mostly at Australian Jews.
- [11:52]
B
That's very helpful because I'm trying to disentangle these different patterns, see which ones are related and how they're related. But ISIS hasn't specifically targeted only Jewish groups in the past. So how do you make sense of the specific targeting of a Jewish celebration and Jewish targets? Like, what is that change about?
- [12:13]
C
Yeah, Hannah, you make a really important point here. If you looked at the focus of ISIS activity in the past, you would not see a lot of attacks on Jewish groups or on Israel. I mean, so many different horrible attacks that I could name in the history of isis. Very few of them focused on Israel. And if you asked ISIS why they would, I mean, they told me pretty directly, look, our focus is on Muslim apostates. They are closer to us, we hate them more. And in our apocalyptic view of the world, there's a kind of drumbeat of an order of operations that we're looking at. And Israel doesn't enter the picture until pretty late in the game. Jews are not the ones we're attacking. But obviously that's changed. So in 2016 or so, you would have seen ISIS fighting Iran, fighting Iraqi, Shia, fighting Kurds in Iraq. That was one of the main areas of operation and targets almost nothing in Israel. So what's happened, I think in the meantime is ISIS has lost territory and Iran has lost relative power because some of its proxies have been taken apart. And now there's a different focus because ISIS has changed and its enemies have changed. And Israel, and by extension Jews in general are in the Crosshairs. I think that isis, like any group, reads the news. What occurs to them to attack is not always because they have an apocalyptic order of operations, but also because they see what motivates people, what excites people. And since October 7, 2023, the main cause that is likely to animate ordinary people or ordinary people who are ISIS curious at least, is Gaza, is Israel, and again, by extension, any random Jew who's just celebrating a holiday. So not too surprising that there would be just a background level of anti Semitic attacks and also a specific focus on Jews by Islamic State supporters.
- [14:34]
B
After the break, why Australia and how does Bondi beach connect with the attacks on American soldiers in Syria? Some tech leaders question whether we're in an AI bubble, but others say the best of what AI has to offer is yet to come. Maybe in 10,000 years, AI will be based on physics that we don't even understand right now, and we'll have many different approaches. Join US Weekly starting October 15th for the most interesting thing in AI, brought to you by Rethink, the Atlantic's creative marketing studio in collaboration with PwC. Wherever you get your podcasts.
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C
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- [15:43]
A
Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fairy underwritten by.
- [15:46]
C
Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts.
- [15:55]
B
So, a few broader questions about isis. I do think of ISIS as operating mainly in their own territories. So why are they carrying out attacks in Australia?
- [16:06]
C
You know, back in 2014, when ISIS was in the headlines for its activity in Syria, I went to Australia and I asked supporters there, what do you care about what's important to you about this and what makes you so crazy? And they were pretty clear. They said, we've got territory now. We have a place where we can implement Islamic law, and that's what matters to us. We need to take the version of Islam that we believe in and turn it into a state. And so how does it help them to do that if you blow up a random place in Australia? Not much. In fact, it might stop them from being able to do that effectively in Syria if they start attacking elsewhere. Because. Because the rest of the world won't put up with it and they'll be deprived of their sanctuaries in Syria. So now we're in a very different situation. And ISIS is too. ISIS had that territory that it wanted to jealously protect where it could implement Islamic law, and now it doesn't. And so when times change, ISIS's strategy changes. And so they focus first of all in the places where they do have some territory in, that's in Nigeria, a little bit of territory in Mozambique. But everywhere else, they're now more in a terrorist mode of attacking elsewhere. So you see smaller attacks and all those people in Australia who are the friends and descendants of those who I interviewed 10 years ago about ISIS, those people now have different priorities. They have no Syria to go to, and so they're thinking more about what they can do at home. And it seems to be the case with these two. If they're having an ISIS flag in their car is any indication that they've decided that the way that they can help the cause is to attack Jews in their own country of Australia. You know, I think in the heyday of ISIS, 10, eight to 10 years ago, we in the west, that includes Australia, were in a sense, spared some of the worst because, of course, the bad things were happening over there. People were focused on getting over there. And the fact that there was an over there to get to made people very excited about the cause. There were a lot of people who said, wow, we thought it would be 100 years before there was a new caliphate that we could fight for. And so we're really energized about this. Well, there's no more caliphate, so the energy from having a caliphate is now depleted. But there's still a lot of people who are focused on building a caliphate and supporting the pathetic little territory that the caliphate still retains. And those people aren't going away. Not much has happened on the whole. There's not an attack in Bandai beach like this every year, thank goodness. But we should expect a lot of the Islamic State supporters who in the past have been focused on trying to travel to Islamic State territory and be Muslims there. That is going to be an energy that's directed inward. There's nowhere for them to attack except for where they stand, whether that be in Poland, Germany, Paris, or Bondi Beach.
- [19:15]
B
Yeah. What I'm taking from this is that those of us who are not close watchers of isis, like you, we just assumed it had gone away, or we just weren't thinking about it. It wasn't in the headlines. The caliphate died. That's the end of it. But what you're describing is a completely different global picture.
- [19:33]
C
Yeah. Isis. One thing that it really had going for it ideologically was a certain kind of simplicity. And as long as you have that simplicity, it's possible for people to rediscover them, even long after ISIS has ceased to be on the front page of every newspaper.
- [19:51]
B
Okay, there's one more piece of this puzzle that we haven't discussed, which is the Bondi beach attack happened just a day after two US Soldiers and an interpreter were killed in Syria by the man the Pentagon says ISIS affiliated with ISIS. What do we know about the killing? How is it related to everything we've been talking about, and what does it signal to you?
- [20:15]
C
There is a connection with Bondi beach in that the Islamic State has done the attacks in Syria, and it appears that these two people in Bondi beach are Islamic State as well. But Syria is a pretty different operational space, and you have to go all the way back to 2013. The current government of Syria and ISIS were basically the same thing back then, and then they split, and the current government of Syria is now an ex jihadist movement that has been attacking the Islamic State with the cooperation of the United States. So what we're seeing is that ISIS no longer has the upper hand in any part of Syria and that it has to infiltrate parts of the security services to get close enough to the partners of the current government and attack them. And that's what it seems like they did effectively this weekend was get someone who was close enough to some American soldiers and then shoot them dead.
- [21:08]
B
Right, right. So that is a constant danger for the US Soldiers who are still there. Like the possibility of someone from ISIS who's an enemy of the current government and. And an enemy of the current government's allies sneaking in and causing mayhem.
- [21:23]
C
Yes. And to do that, they don't have to get a plane ticket to do it. These are Syrians. The leadership of the current government, Ahmed Ashara and Abu Bakr al Baghdadi were personally acquainted back in the day. So it's not like these are people who have to be brought in from abroad to infiltrate. They are just Syrians who were there and who have ISIS sympathies and. And have to be screened for, in this case, I guess unsuccessfully, because they're trying to do ISIS stuff within Syrian territory, which is to say, their own home territory.
- [21:54]
B
Understood. So it's especially dangerous because you can't entirely tell who's affiliated with whom, who's pretending it's a nuanced situation.
- [22:05]
C
Yes, that's right. And it cuts both ways, too. I mean, given that these are Syrians, the current government is filled with people who know them. That means they can sniff them out better. So there are ups and downs to it. But the fact of the matter is that Syria has had lots of ISIS supporters within it for a long time. And so when you flip the government to being a Sunni government that's anti isis, then you're going to have a bunch of Sunni extremists who you have to keep an eye on and make sure they haven't wriggled their way into the security services and got close to the Americans.
- [22:38]
B
So in the coming days, weeks, I'm sure we'll get more information about the Bandai beach attackers, their travels, their motivations. What is it that you'll be looking for? What details will be important to you?
- [22:56]
C
In the past, with Islamic State attacks, the people who have done them have not been shy about saying why. And the fact that they're shooting into a crowd of Jewish families, you can make some pretty obvious inferences about their general view of Jews. But finding out what really is motivating you, what are you trying to get out of this? In the past, they've been willing to say that they've even recorded videos of themselves explaining that beforehand. So in the coming days, I want to hear what the travel of these two people looks like in the Philippines and also just whether the survivor has a statement to make about why he was doing this and what motivated him. Because that's going to tell us a lot about some of the most important stuff here, which is, was there help from the outside? Was there help from the Islamic State in the Philippines? There's speculation that there was help from Iran. And this becomes a very different situation if it turns out that there's outside help and it's a directed attack rather than what they sometimes call an inspired one.
- [23:55]
B
And what is the difference, like an inspired attack versus a directed attack? What's the significance of that distinction?
- [24:02]
C
Some of the distinction is geopolitical. If it turns out that Iran has told these people what to do, made sure that they were funded to do it, then that could mean direct strikes against Iran by Israel. There's some discussion of that already. Now, if it turns out that they were directed in the attack from the southern Philippines, then it could mean a new wave of counterterror operations there, which I think it's unlikely. That would include Australian forces in the southern Philippines, but it would certainly mean some probably pretty bloody operations and a renewal of hostilities in the southern Philippines with the Philippine government against Islamic State people there. If it turns out that These people just got it in their head that this would be a good idea and nobody told them how to do it, where to do it, when to do it. Then you're back to the long term counterterror questions that Australia's had to think about and has not thought about. I think hard enough over the last few years. If you have lots of people in your territory, including your own citizens, who think that violence is the answer, who think that random killing of civilians is the answer, then you got to deal with that. And obviously Australia has not been able to do that. Given what we've seen in the number of violent attacks against Jews in the last couple years, the soul searching has barely begun there, but the recriminations have also barely begun.
- [25:31]
B
I have to admit I haven't thought about ISIS in a long time, which I imagine is true of a lot of people. It does feel like, from what you're describing, that there's a return of sorts or an evolution. But I also don't want to overstate it since there's a lot we don't know about the attack in Australia. So how do you think about the fact that ISIS linked killings are in the news again? That even though the term ISIS is in the news again, I think a.
- [26:00]
C
Lot of people who watch ISIS closely would say, oh, they never left. And it's true that there's been a thousand, couple thousand ISIS attacks worldwide over the last several years, long since ISIS has been out of the news. But you know, I think about it in a slightly different way. I think it's also that ISIS's inspiration has never gone away. For some people, ISIS had such a clear message of we're going to re establish the caliphate. The caliphate is this thing that you as a Muslim who knows anything at all about his history, it's something that you've read about and we our business is bringing it back. So it's so simple that you can teach people about this. They can learn about it just by reading online about it. And so it's constantly going to be inspiring a few people and a few of those people are going to end up being violent. So I think ISIS in some sense never went away. And in some sense the ideas are very, very difficult to just go get rid of. And as long as they're out there, occasionally you're going to see attacks like this. It doesn't mean that there's going to be a return to the volume of ISIS attacks that we saw in 2014, 15, 16, where there would be hundreds of people killed in churches, theaters, etc. But it does mean that these ideas, they turn out to be very resilient and long after we forgot about them. Other people have resources. Remember them well.
- [27:29]
B
Graham, thank you so much for helping us understand the situation.
- [27:33]
C
Always good to talk with you.
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B
This episode of Radio Atlantic was produced by Rosie Hughes. It was edited and engineered by Kevin Townsend and fact checked by Genevieve Finn. Claudina Baid is the executive producer of Atlantic Audio and Andrea Valdez is our managing editor. Listeners, if you enjoy the show, you can support our work and the work of all Atlantic journalists when you subscribe to The Atlantic. @theatlantic.com listener I'm Hanna Rosen. Thanks for listening.