Radio Atlantic – Live from The Atlantic Festival: "2026 Is the Battlefield"

Date: September 21, 2025
Host: Hanna Rosin
Guests: Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic staff writer, expert on autocracy); Garry Kasparov (world chess champion, founder of Renew Democracy Initiative)
Event: Recorded live at The Atlantic Festival, New York

Overview

This live episode of Radio Atlantic tackles one of the most urgent topics facing the US and the world: escalating threats to democracy, both in America and globally. The conversation, featuring Anne Applebaum and Garry Kasparov—two leading voices on autocracy—explores how authoritarian tactics once observed abroad are now appearing in the US. Together, the panel dissects chilling recent parallels, the fragility of democratic norms, the role of institutions, the breakdown of political opposition, and the global implications of America's direction in 2026 and beyond. With sharp insights and historical examples, they argue that the battle for democracy is not hypothetical or distant: it is happening now, and the next two years are pivotal.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Parallels Between American and Foreign Censorship

(02:07–06:24)

• The "Jimmy Kimmel" Incident: The firing of Jimmy Kimmel from ABC after government pressure recalls how satire was shut down in Putin’s Russia.
  • Anne Applebaum: Draws parallels to the Russian puppet show "Kukli," banned by Putin because dictators "don’t like being made fun of."

    “This is the way modern censorship works…censorship is the government putting pressure often on private companies to adjust their programming.” (03:52, C)

  • Garry Kasparov: Recalls the brief Russian democratic era and how satire survived attacks under Yeltsin but was abruptly ended by Putin using "business quarrels" as a pretext—"That’s how they always start.” (06:19, D)
• Modern Censorship: No longer a man "crossing out stuff with a pencil." It’s about state pressure on businesses, creating a more insidious environment.

2. The Fragility of American Democratic Norms

(06:24–08:25)

• Putinization of America: Kasparov warns that American democracy is more reliant on traditions than codified law.

  • “So many things Americans believe were carved in stone…are just based on traditions.” (06:44, D)

  • Trump normalizes behavior previously thought unthinkable; Watergate-level offenses now happen regularly.
• Constitution's Limits: The US Constitution offers tools but "it doesn’t defend itself…unless you are engaged, [authoritarians] can go around [it]." (08:17, D)

3. Rule of Law, Institutions, and Congressional Abdication

(08:25–13:52)

• A Pattern Repeated Globally: Applebaum outlines how elected leaders undermine democratic systems in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, India, as well as Russia:

  • “The pattern of how an elected leader takes over a political system…is something that we've seen before in countries that are also radically different.” (08:25, C)

  • Decay in Congress: The real failure lies not in the letter of the law but in the spirit and in Congress lacking “Democratic virtue.”
• Courts as a Final Defense: Both agree that courts are crucial, but if captured, they become enablers rather than defenders of democracy.

  • "Putting back the cracked egg after it's been smashed is also very difficult." (13:52, C)

• Historical Precedent: Kasparov points out courts issue rulings but cannot enforce them without the other branches, referencing President Jackson’s reputed apocryphal defiance of the Supreme Court. (14:21, D/C)

4. Subtle Authoritarianism: Manipulating Elections & Structures

(15:22–17:56)

• Pre-2026 Election Scenario: Kasparov warns Trump is better positioned to use the tools of government (FBI, DOJ, ICE) to influence outcomes.

  • “It's not if, it's when, but he will have FBI, DOJ, ICE, same mob and more elected officials on his side to do things.” (16:19, D)

• Modern Election Manipulation: Applebaum highlights gerrymandering, federal involvement in state voting rolls, and the use of bureaucratic levers rather than ballot-stuffing.

  • “You try to create the conditions for the election to be in your favor, so you get rid of a level playing field.” (17:29, C)

  • Cites Poland’s failed attempt to rig the system and underscores how turnout remains vital.

5. 2026 as the Decisive Battlefield

(21:33–22:01)

• Kasparov’s Stark Warning:

  • “2026 [is] the most fateful election in American history. If Democrats do not retake the House, 2028 will be a formality.” (21:36, D)

• Tactics for Resistance: Kasparov argues for aggressive political strategies (coax GOP House members, avoid deals with Trump-aligned Republicans), insisting on fighting at every opportunity. (21:59–23:09, D)
• Applebaum: Opposition parties fragment under authoritarian stress. The Democrats are trying varied approaches—social media, satire, authenticity—with different leaders (AOC, Murphy, Newsom, Pritzker).

6. Building a Winning Democratic Coalition

(25:46–27:10)

• Kasparov: Success depends on broad coalitions—including the political center, not just the base.

  • “The leadership…should be those who will be accepted by the majority, but they also have to motivate their base.” (27:10, D/C)

• Applebaum: Engagement and creativity are needed; the winning message/approach is still emerging.
• Both: Stress that active participation—in politics, advocacy, courts, or public pressure—is vital.

  • “By being involved…you feel better. You’re not helpless and history is not washing over you.” (28:42, C)

7. The Contrast with Russia (and Global Stakes)

(29:55–32:50)

• America Not Russia—Yet: Kasparov acknowledges Americans have more tools, traditions, and freedoms.

  • “There are many ways for Americans to demonstrate disagreement with current policies. Temperament, you have to be engaged. It’s a real battle.” (27:25, D)

  • But warns, “The fact that Russia in 2000 was so different from America in 2025 should not make you feel happy…the difference may disappear.” (30:54, D)
• Internal, Not External, Division: Applebaum points out the division is now inside every country—and family—making unity harder to achieve.

  • “This competition between autocratic ideas and democratic ideas…takes place inside every country.” (32:50, C)

8. The World Order and American Example

(35:37–38:34)

• Collapse of Faith Abroad: Applebaum observes allies now question US reliability, with politics in Europe and Asia revolving around how to operate in a world where "the United States isn’t the leader of the democratic camp anymore."

  • “I don't think you can understate the amount of shock and disruption it's caused.” (36:31, C)

• Rise of Autocrats: Kasparov reflects on Xi Jinping’s ascendancy as global leader of authoritarianism and Russia’s subordination to China; the US’s abdication creates a dangerous power vacuum.

  • “If America moves out, somebody gets in, and guess who will be in.” (38:07, D)

9. Final Message: The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

(39:03–39:23)

• Ultimate Battle:

  • “We are fighting not Donald Trump, but Trumpism as a phenomenon…It's a global phenomenon, and unless we can defeat it here, chances elsewhere are not looking good.” (39:03, D)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Kasparov on Censorship and Business Tactics:
  “That’s how they always start. Putin kept repeating it…It was business. That’s how they always start.” (06:19, D)

• On the Constitution’s Limits:
  “It doesn't defend itself. It offers you an opportunity to build your fortifications, but unless you are engaged, [autocrats] can go around.” (08:17, D)

• On Modern Authoritarian Playbook:
  “Modern censorship is different from the old-fashioned way, and manipulating elections is also different…you try to create the conditions for the election to be in your favor.” (17:29, C)

• Stakes of 2026:
  “If Democrats do not retake the House, 2028 will be a formality…I'm afraid the show Autocrats in America…the show will be shut down.” (21:36, D)

• Urgency of Collective Action:
  “It's a real battle…and every month, every week between now and 2026, make sure that we'll be ready…” (27:25, D)

• Global Ramifications:
  “At stake in the 2026 election is not just the future of democracy, but the alignment of the entire world.” (38:34, B paraphrasing panelists)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:04] — Show opening and panel introductions
• [02:07–06:24] — The ABC/Jimmy Kimmel case and parallels to Russian censorship
• [06:24–08:25] — Fragility of American norms; "Putinization"
• [08:25–13:52] — Institutions, Congress, and demise of checks/balances
• [15:22–17:56] — Authoritarian playbooks, modern voter suppression
• [21:33–22:01] — “2026 is the battlefield”—why the midterms matter most
• [23:09–28:42] — Democratic coalition-building and opposition strategies
• [29:55–32:50] — US vs. Russia: what remains different, and what is at risk
• [35:37–38:34] — The global world order upheaval; authoritarian bloc
• [39:03–39:23] — The global fight against Trumpism

Takeaways

• The Battle Has Already Begun: The struggle for democracy isn’t confined to distant lands or future dates. The erosion is present, and the next midterms are a critical juncture.
• Autocracy’s Methods Are Subtle: From gerrymandering to business “quarrels,” today's autocrats rarely announce their intentions. Instead, they quietly shape conditions in their favor.
• Institutions Alone Are Not Enough: Laws and constitutions require active defense; public engagement and moral courage are indispensable.
• Global Resonance: If democracy backslides in the US, autocrats elsewhere will be emboldened, risking a fundamental world order shift.
• Engagement Is Essential: Everyone—lawyers, teachers, citizens—has a role to play. The fight is collective and immediate.