Radio Atlantic — "Peace in Ukraine Is Not a Real-Estate Deal"

Date: August 21, 2025
Host: Hanna Rosin
Guests: Anne Applebaum (staff writer, expert on Russia and Ukraine), Vivian Salama (staff writer, covers politics and national security)

Brief Overview

This episode examines two consequential and chaotic international summits:

• President Donald Trump's highly publicized meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on American soil, described as a grand spectacle.
• The subsequent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House, accompanied by several European leaders.

Hanna Rosin leads a conversation with Anne Applebaum and Vivian Salama to unpack what actually shifted (or didn’t), the ongoing confusion and risks around peace in Ukraine, and why diplomatic shortcuts—"real estate deals"—can’t substitute for meaningful strategies in ending the war. The guests discuss shifts in Trump’s approach, European alarm, the nature (and danger) of ceasefire talk, and why true peace requires more than high-profile summits.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Chaotic Summits: Atmosphere and Symbolism

[03:14 – 04:43]

• Vivian Salama describes unprecedented chaos at the White House during the Zelensky/EU leader visit:
  • "I've never, ever seen the White House so chaotic... not just European and American journalists... Iranian journalists and Japanese journalists. Just to show you how significant an event this was and how much the world is sort of looking at Washington." (Salama, 03:14)
• Comparisons to “a Beyonce concert on short notice.” (Rosin, 04:43)
• Both events came together hastily, reflecting international concern and urgency.

2. The European Fear and Alarm

[04:59 – 07:20]

• Anne Applebaum highlights the European context:
  • It's the height of summer, and European leaders dropping vacations to fly to Washington signals genuine alarm.
  • "Fear and confusion and a sense that maybe the White House doesn't really understand the rules of the game." (Applebaum, 05:42)
• Key concern: The U.S. granting Putin a symbolically important welcome (red carpet, military flyover) with little in return, echoing Russia’s playbook.
• Worry about Trump adopting Putin’s rhetoric (e.g., “ceasefire,” “peace negotiations”), which can allow Russia to continue hostilities under a diplomatic guise.

3. Security Guarantees: A Small but Unclear Shift

[07:41 – 09:12]

• The biggest concrete shift from the meetings:
  • Trump, under pressure, talks about "security guarantees" for Ukraine—though specifics are vague.
  • Applebaum explains that true peace isn’t just “ceasing fire” but providing structured frameworks to prevent future Russian aggression.
  • Reference to the Budapest Memorandum (1994) and its failures.

4. Diplomatic Process Being Done ‘Backwards’

[09:28 – 09:50]

• Applebaum laments the inversion of diplomatic sequencing:
  • "You have low-level meetings … you bring together neutral negotiators... then you have the meeting of the big leaders at the very end. But this is all being done backwards... adding to the chaos." (Applebaum, 09:28)

5. How Trump and Zelensky Were Received: Rituals, Politics, and Subtle Shifts

[10:02 – 13:45]

• Only Zelensky was received personally by Trump; others were greeted by protocol staff.
• Notably warmer greeting for Zelensky, perhaps due to previous clashes and European pressure.
• Zelensky’s attire, scrutinized in American media, was a strategic choice to avoid perceived disrespect (Salama, 11:20).
• On diplomatic management, Salama notes:
  • European leaders told Zelensky: “You cannot engage him… Ukraine needs the United States more than the United States needs Ukraine.” (Salama, 12:52)
• Trump’s hints at security guarantees mark a political about-face from campaign rhetoric of ending aid (“That's extraordinary. And such a huge departure from what he was saying on the campaign trail...” Salama, 13:48).

6. Trump's Evolving Stance on Putin

[15:45 – 18:49]

• Salama details a “remarkable evolution” in Trump’s views:
  • Early deference and susceptibility to “Putin’s language,” e.g., accepting lectures on Ukrainian history.
  • Disenchantment as Putin becomes unreliable and unresponsive ("He assures me that he's not gonna do anything, but then he does, and I don't really like that." Salama, 17:47).
  • Advisors increasingly aware—and influencing him—to distrust Putin, though links with Zelensky remain unclear.

7. Trump's Lack of Consistent Strategy & Risk for U.S.-Europe Relations

[19:09 – 21:50]

• Applebaum: Trump often parrots the last person he’s spoken to (be it Putin, Zelensky, or real estate advisor Steve Witkoff).
  • “It often looks like what Trump is doing is seeking to emerge as the winner from whatever situation he’s in ... I am not sure that he has a deeper strategy.” (Applebaum, 19:57)
• U.S. sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine have been quietly eroding under Trump ("almost unnoticed, Trump has been dismantling American sanctions on Russia... twice cut military aid to Ukraine" Applebaum, 20:51).

8. What’s On the Table: ‘Freeze,’ Territorial Concessions, and European Alarm

[24:22 – 27:36]

• Admin officials talk of "compromise" and "cutting losses," possibly conceding post-2022 Ukrainian territories to Russia.
• Ukrainians and Europeans view such deals as nonstarters, fearing emboldenment of Putin and a dangerous redrawing of Europe’s borders.
• Salama: “...the rest of Europe sees [such concessions] as very alarming because they believe that that kind of concession will just embolden Putin...” (Salama, 25:10)
• Applebaum stresses: “until they have given up that goal, you know, the goal of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign nation, then the war is not over…” (Applebaum, 28:07)

9. Putin’s Mindset & The War’s True Stakes

[27:36 – 30:39]

• The war is not about territory for Russia—it’s about undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and future existence.
• Both guests underscore: Putin is settled for “the long game,” betting that Western stamina will falter before Russia’s does.
  • “They believe that Putin has more stamina than the entire west combined, that the west will eventually move on.... But Putin's playing for the long game, and they knew that in Ukraine.” (Salama, 29:25)

10. What Happens Next? Hope, Caution, and Skepticism

[31:03 – 32:11]

• Trump has floated a direct Trump–Zelensky–Putin summit.
  • White House is “cautiously optimistic”; the Kremlin has already indicated unwillingness.
  • Salama: “Not a lot of people are optimistic that’s going to happen.” (Salama, 32:10)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Summits’ Symbolism:

  • “Putin got exactly what he wanted. He was treated as a world leader, as a superpower leader. There were American soldiers kneeling on the tarmac, rolling out the red carpet for him... and he went home having offered nothing and given nothing.”
    — Anne Applebaum [06:02]

• On Trump’s Negotiating Style:

  • “It often looks like what Trump is doing is seeking to emerge as the winner from whatever situation he’s in... I am not sure that he has a deeper strategy.”
    — Anne Applebaum [19:57]

• On Lasting Peace:

  • “This is not a war over territory. Russia does not need more territory. This is a war to damage and undermine the sovereignty and legitimacy of the Ukrainian state... until they have given up that goal, the war is not over. And to pretend that it's over is very dangerous.”
    — Anne Applebaum [27:36]

• On the West’s Staying Power:

  • “The one thing I heard over and over again was, was that they believe that Putin has more stamina than the entire west combined; that the west will eventually move on ... But Putin's playing for the long game, and they knew that in Ukraine.”
    — Vivian Salama [29:25]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:14]—The chaos and symbolism at the White House
• [05:42]—European sentiment: alarm and confusion at rapid U.S. diplomacy
• [07:41]—Shift: Trump forced to address "security guarantees"
• [09:28]—Why skipping diplomatic process creates confusion
• [10:02]—Rituals and how they signal politics: Zelensky’s reception and attire
• [13:48]—Trump’s about-face on U.S. support for Ukraine
• [15:45]—Trump's shifting perspective on Putin: from naivete to skepticism
• [19:09]—Dangers of U.S. policy drift and Trump's lack of strategy
• [24:22]—Freeze talks, territorial concessions, and European worries
• [27:36]—The war’s reality: a Russian attack on sovereignty, not just borders
• [29:25]—Ukraine’s fear of Western exhaustion outlasting Russia
• [31:03]—Outlook: prospects (and doubts) for a substantive peace summit

Takeaways

• The recent U.S.–Russia and U.S.–Ukraine summits, however dramatic, did more to expose confusion and showmanship than to clarify a path to peace.
• European leaders are deeply worried about U.S. intentions and possible willingness to concede ground to Russia for the sake of a rapid "deal."
• Trump has shifted—from following Putin’s lead and seeking quick deals, to a more skeptical, though still erratic, stance—yet his lack of consistent strategy and reduction of American leverage is troubling to allies.
• The central challenge remains unchanged: Peace can’t be treated as a simple transaction or “real-estate deal.” Real stability will require sustained, structured guarantees and the abandonment of Russian ambitions to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty.