Radio Atlantic: "The Five Eyes Have Noticed" – Detailed Summary

Release Date: February 27, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Radio Atlantic, hosted by Hanna Rosin, The Atlantic delves deep into the alarming shifts within the global geopolitical landscape, particularly focusing on the deterioration of longstanding alliances and intelligence-sharing frameworks. Titled "The Five Eyes Have Noticed," the episode features insightful conversations with Ann Applebaum, author of Autocracy, Inc., and Shane Harris, Atlantic’s staff writer covering national security. Together, they explore the ramifications of the Trump administration’s recent foreign policy maneuvers and the potential erosion of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.

Section 1: Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Under Trump

The episode opens with Hanna Rosin highlighting President Donald Trump’s disruptive approach to international alliances. Ann Applebaum elaborates on the sudden and negative shift in U.S. rhetoric towards allies, marking a stark departure from post-World War II cooperative norms.

• Notable Quote:

  Ann Applebaum [02:43]: “The language and body language... has been strikingly negative.”

Key Points:

• Supercilious Attitude: Vice President J.D. Vance referred to EU leaders as "commissars" at a Munich security conference, undermining trust and respect.

• Restarting Conversations with Russia: Trump's administration began dialogues with Russia, not aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict but seemingly to forge a new, unsettling U.S.-Russian relationship.

• UN Vote Reversal: In a surprising move, the U.S. opposed a UN motion condemning Russian aggression alongside Russia and its allies, signaling a potential realignment away from traditional Western alliances.

Section 2: Implications for the Post-World War II Order

Ann Applebaum provides a historical context, emphasizing the importance of the post-World War II alliances that have fostered global peace and economic prosperity.

• Notable Quote:

  Ann Applebaum [08:24]: “The post World War II order... was a set of alliances that the US built in Europe... and also in Asia.”

Key Points:

• Economic and Military Influence: The U.S. led the development of prosperous, secure zones by aligning Europe and Asia through economic investments and military cooperation.

• Impact of Withdrawal: Withdrawing from these alliances disrupts established economic ties and undermines mutual security arrangements, potentially destabilizing regions dependent on U.S. leadership.

Section 3: Betrayal of Ukraine and the Unprecedented Deal

A central focus is the controversial document presented to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, which proposed Ukraine ceding 50% of its natural resources to the U.S. indefinitely—a move likened to colonial exploitation.

• Notable Quote:

  Ann Applebaum [11:54]: “Ukraine is supposed to sign away 50% of its natural resources... to the United States indefinitely.”

Key Points:

• Unprecedented Demand: Such a demand from a sovereign nation is unprecedented in modern diplomacy, raising concerns about exploitation and loss of Ukrainian sovereignty.

• Implications for Autocrats: This move sends a dangerous message to autocratic leaders globally that aggression might be rewarded, undermining international norms against territorial conquest.

• Evolving U.S.-Russia Relations: Trump's affinity for Putin and the administration’s actions suggest a possible strategic realignment with Russia, threatening the security guarantees previously assured to Ukraine and other allies.

Section 4: Consequences for European Security and Alliances

The episode discusses the rapid realignment of European nations in response to the U.S. shifting stance, highlighting fears of diminished American support and increased European autonomy in defense.

• Notable Quote:

  Ann Applebaum [16:28]: “If the US is serious about withdrawing from Europe... there will be a moment when Europe is not yet prepared for that scenario.”

Key Points:

• European Independence: Leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz advocate for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense, aligning with Trump’s desire to reduce U.S. involvement.

• Preparation Lag: The swift nature of the U.S. policy shift leaves Europe unprepared for self-reliant defense mechanisms, risking regional instability during the transition.

• Long-Term Economic and Political Effects: Reduced U.S. presence could lead to decreased sales of U.S. defense products in Europe and weaken the overall security architecture established since World War II.

Section 5: Intelligence Sharing and the Five Eyes Alliance Under Threat

Transitioning to the second half, Shane Harris discusses the potential impacts of the U.S.'s foreign policy shifts on intelligence-sharing mechanisms, particularly the Five Eyes alliance comprising the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand.

• Notable Quote:

  Shane Harris [22:36]: “The most important intelligence sharing arrangement that the United States has is something that is referred to as the five eyes.”

Key Points:

• Five Eyes Collaboration: This alliance relies on mutual trust and the secure sharing of highly sensitive intelligence, pivotal for counter-terrorism and national security.

• Eroding Trust: Trump's history of leaking classified information and the administration’s chaotic handling of intelligence raises concerns among allies about the reliability and security of shared information.

• Potential Exclusion: Reports emerged suggesting proposals to exclude Canada from the Five Eyes, indicative of how U.S. policies could disrupt international intelligence cooperation.

Section 6: Potential Shifts in Intelligence Dependencies

Shane Harris explores how European intelligence agencies might recalibrate their dependencies on U.S. intelligence in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape.

• Notable Quote:

  Shane Harris [27:39]: “Everyone is aware that the nature of the alliance is shifting... perhaps not irrevocably, but at least for the foreseeable future.”

Key Points:

• Building Independent Capabilities: European nations, recognizing the shifting dynamics, may invest more in their own intelligence infrastructures to reduce reliance on the U.S.

• Tailored Intelligence Sharing: Countries might develop more specific and tailored intelligence-sharing frameworks that better align with their regional security interests.

• Collective Security Risks: The potential weakening of the Five Eyes could result in less effective threat detection and response, endangering global security due to fragmented intelligence efforts.

Conclusion

The episode "The Five Eyes Have Noticed" underscores a pivotal moment in global politics where historical alliances are being tested by unilateral policy shifts. The discussions with Ann Applebaum and Shane Harris reveal deep concerns about the future of international cooperation, the integrity of intelligence-sharing frameworks, and the overarching stability of the post-World War II order. As the U.S. navigates a path that appears increasingly isolated, the repercussions of these changes extend far beyond political rhetoric, potentially reshaping the very foundations of global security and prosperity.

Notable Production Credits:

• Produced by: Janae West
• Edited by: Claudina Baid
• Engineered by: Rob Smirciak
• Fact-Checked by: Yvonne Kim
• Executive Producer: Claudina Baid, Atlantic Audio
• Managing Editor: Andrea Valdez

Host: Hanna Rosin