Radio Atlantic Episode Summary: "Who Could Rule Iran Next?"

Release Date: June 26, 2025

Introduction:

In the episode titled "Who Could Rule Iran Next?", Radio Atlantic delves deep into the tumultuous political landscape of Iran amidst recent conflicts and leadership uncertainties. Hosted by Hanna Rosin, the episode features a compelling conversation with Arash Azizi, a contributing writer to The Atlantic and author of What Iranians Want. Together, they explore the ramifications of recent events, the unsteady grip of Ayatollah Khamenei, and the potential paths Iran might take in the near future.

1. Contextualizing Recent Developments:

The episode opens with a reference to former President Donald Trump's statements regarding Iran. Hanna Rosin highlights two significant remarks made by Trump during a NATO press conference:

• Trump on Iran-Iraq Relations:
  “First this we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing. Do you understand that?”
  (00:30)

• Trump on Possible Agreements:
  “We're going to talk to them next week with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don't know. To me, I don't think it's that necessary. I mean, they had a war, they fought. Now they're going back to their world. I don't care if I have an agreement or not.”
  (01:08)

Rosin uses these quotes to set the stage for a discussion on Iran's internal dynamics and the global perceptions influencing its future.

2. The Perspective from Within Iran:

Arash Azizi provides a nuanced view of Iran's societal and political state:

• The Last Glimpse of War:
  “So I was born the last year of the Iran Iraq war. And that's really the last that Iranians had seen war and what it looks like they had, I think, forgotten it.”
  (02:19)

Azizi emphasizes that Iranians today grapple with the memories of past conflicts, impacting their current worldview and resilience.

• Helplessness Among Iranians:
  “I think a lot of Iranians will feel helpless because it's clear that decisions that are determining their lives... are made in a lot of different places, but not by them.”
  (02:47)

3. Analyzing Netanyahu's Statements and Public Reaction:

The episode scrutinizes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assertion that recent attacks on Iran could ignite a social uprising:

• Netanyahu's Claim:
  “The people of Iran must understand this is their moment. A light has been lit. Carry it to freedom.”
  (02:59)

• Azizi's Counterpoint:
  “Just initially, definitely, it was that it's gonna make things worse... it's clear that this is not gonna happen.”
  (03:18)

Azizi argues that Netanyahu's optimism about sparking a revolution is unfounded, noting that such attacks instead bolster Iran's militaristic stance and governmental security apparatus.

4. Leadership Under Ayatollah Khamenei:

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Ayatollah Khamenei's long-standing rule and its implications:

• Khamenei's Tenure:
  “He's been in power since 1989.”
  (05:46)

• Azizi's Critique of Khamenei:
  “I think Ayatollah Khamenei has been a total failure... his track record.”
  (06:14)

Azizi paints a bleak picture of Khamenei's leadership, citing economic mismanagement, cultural repression, and failure to align with the aspirations of the younger Iranian populace.

• Cultural Alienation:
  “... Iran is not, only Iran, is not a model Islamic society, it's one of the most anti religious societies in the world.”
  (07:58)

He underscores the growing disconnect between the regime's stringent Islamic ideals and the modern, often secular desires of Iranians, particularly the youth.

5. Public Sentiment and Movements:

The conversation highlights the limited public organization against the regime:

• Failed Mobilization:
  “...they tried to organize a sort of anti Israel demonstration... only 20 people showed up.”
  (11:38)

Azizi uses this example to illustrate the lack of substantial public support for the regime's aggressive foreign policies, debunking the notion of a robust internal opposition ready to challenge Khamenei's rule.

6. Future Leadership Scenarios:

With Khamenei's leadership appearing precarious, the episode explores potential successors and pathways forward:

• Succession Uncertainties:
  “There's a very real possibility that Khamenei will actually end up being the last one, that this position will somehow be abolished.”
  (17:32)

• Candidate Mojtaba Khamenei:
  Azizi discusses the enigmatic figure of Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah Khamenei's son, who is being positioned as a rejuvenating leader.
  “He teaches at home... he's an entirely shadowy figure.”
  (18:47)

• Developmentalist Faction:
  “They really want Iran to be developed... integration into the Western economy.”
  (21:54)

Azizi identifies a pragmatic faction within the regime advocating for economic modernization and cautious regional engagement, contrasting with hardliners who uphold anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric.

7. The Path Towards Democracy:

A pivotal topic is the aspiration for democracy within Iran:

• Challenges to Democratic Transition:
  “I think the movers and shakers of Iranian power are now these factions of the regime and they're not interested in democratization...”
  (24:00)

• Conditions for Democracy:
  “We need basic safety and security of our bodies... and prosperity.”
  (24:30)

Azizi emphasizes that while pro-democracy sentiments exist, achieving democratic governance requires addressing fundamental issues of security and economic stability.

8. Implications of Trump's Statements on Nuclear Capabilities:

The discussion addresses the impact of Trump's claims about crippling Iran's nuclear program:

• Reality Check on Nuclear Strikes:
  “It's not true that the Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed.”
  (26:11)

• Necessity of Political Solutions:
  “The only durable way to get the nuclear threat of Iran defanged is a nuclear deal.”
  (27:08)

Azizi critiques the efficacy of military approaches, advocating instead for diplomatic negotiations to ensure Iran's compliance and prevent nuclear proliferation.

Conclusion:

The episode concludes on a somber note, recognizing the fragility of Iran's current political structure under Khamenei and the uncertain prospects for meaningful change. Azizi remains hopeful for a future where democratic aspirations can materialize, contingent upon significant socio-economic reforms and the establishment of a more engaged and organized civil society.

Radio Atlantic successfully provides an insightful and comprehensive analysis of Iran's precarious leadership situation, the dissonance between the regime and its populace, and the myriad possibilities that lie ahead for one of the Middle East's most complex nations.

Notable Quotes:

• “We're going to talk to them next week with Iran... I don't care if I have an agreement or not.” — Donald Trump (01:08)

• “I think Ayatollah Khamenei has been a total failure.” — Arash Azizi (06:14)

• “They really want Iran to be developed... integration into the Western economy.” — Arash Azizi (21:54)

• “The only durable way to get the nuclear threat of Iran defanged is a nuclear deal.” — Arash Azizi (27:08)

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights shared in the "Who Could Rule Iran Next?" episode, offering listeners a clear and detailed understanding of Iran's current and possible future political trajectories.