Radiolab Podcast Summary

Episode: "Are We Coins?"

Date: June 30, 2009
Hosts: Robert Krulwich (with Jad Abumrad joining via archival audio)
Guests: Dr. Steve Strogatz (mathematician), Paul Glimcher (neuroscientist)

Main Theme

This episode explores the question: Are human achievements—like remarkable sporting streaks—the result of randomness (like flipping a coin) or do they reflect true greatness and willpower? Through baseball statistics, psychological insights, and neuroscience research, the hosts investigate the nature of streaks, randomness, and free will.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Myth of Miraculous Sports Streaks

[01:19–04:41]

• The show revisits a debate from a previous episode: Are “hot streaks” in sports truly miraculous or just statistically inevitable?
• Robert Krulwich describes how statistical studies counted every event, not just standout moments, finding that even the greatest athletes tend to perform near their career averages.
• Quote:
  • Robert Krulwich: "Even is more like a coin than any of us had dared to imagine." [02:57]
• The only exception: Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak in baseball stands out as seemingly special.

2. Simulating the Impossible: Joe DiMaggio’s Streak

[05:01–08:30]

• Dr. Steve Strogatz describes simulating the entire history of baseball 10,000 times to see how often a streak as long as DiMaggio’s occurs.
• Results: A streak of 56 games or more happened about one in every six simulations. What seemed nearly impossible was actually not so improbable given enough opportunities.
• Quote:
  • Steve Strogatz: "People used to think it was like a million to one shot or something like that. It's not that." [06:44]
• DiMaggio's streak, while rare, was statistically plausible. But, curiously, the simulations show it was unlikely to be him, in that year, suggesting some real-world “specialness” after all.

3. The Human Factor: Psychology and Streaks

[08:30–12:06]

• Discussion shifts when Strogatz mentions new research by Trent McCotter indicating that player psychology and behavior during streaks matter—players may change their approach to maintain a streak.
• Key Insight: In real life, games aren’t truly independent events like coin flips.
• Quote:
  • Steve Strogatz: "Our assumption in our computer experiment that they were coins. Wrong." [10:21]
  • Jad Abumrad: "If you're saying that the psychology of the hitter can sway the length of the streak, well, then, yeah, the whole coin analogy is not quite right anymore." [10:25]
• Conclusion: Statistical randomness is not the whole story—there is a role for human will and decision-making in maintaining streaks, especially in baseball.

4. Can We Escape Statistics?

[12:26–13:18]

• Robert Krulwich reflects: Are we truly more than statistical outcomes? Is there room for will and agency?
• Emotional takeaway: While statistical explanations cover much, there remains a “spark” of something extra in human endeavor.

5. Free Will and the Brain: Are Our Choices Random?

[13:35–17:46]

• Neuroscientist Paul Glimcher introduces "Schnick, Schnack, Schnook," a four-option version of rock-paper-scissors, to illustrate human unpredictability.
• Laboratory experiment: Glimcher records the brain activity of a monkey making meaningless choices, showing how neuron firing patterns are inherently random.
• Key Insight: This randomness, present in decision-making, is an adaptive feature—true predictability would be a liability in the real world.
• Quote:
  • Paul Glimcher: "You can actually hear the randomness in the way it's behaving. And we think that’s not an accident. That we believe is the randomness that makes us unpredictable when we’re making choices." [15:29]
  • Paul Glimcher: "We all make up those stories afterwards. ... Is there really compelling evidence that at the moment I had to pick, I was thinking about that? Yeah. Not so compelling." [17:23]
• The sense that we explain our decisions after the fact is central—our brains narrate, but much of our actual choice is driven by structured randomness.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Even is more like a coin than any of us had dared to imagine." – Robert Krulwich [02:57]
• "People used to think it was like a million to one shot or something like that. It's not that." – Steve Strogatz [06:44]
• "Our assumption in our computer experiment that they were coins. Wrong." – Steve Strogatz [10:21]
• "You can actually hear the randomness in the way it’s behaving. And we think that’s not an accident." – Paul Glimcher [15:29]
• "We all make up those stories afterwards. ... Is there really compelling evidence that at the moment I had to pick, I was thinking about that?" – Paul Glimcher [17:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:19–04:41]: Are we really “just coins”? Recap of the previous statistics episode and intro to DiMaggio.
• [05:01–08:30]: Simulation of baseball history and debunking DiMaggio’s “impossibility”.
• [08:30–12:06]: Psychology’s role in streaks, findings from Trent McCotter.
• [13:35–17:46]: Paul Glimcher on randomness in choice, neuroscience of decision-making.

Tone & Style

The conversation is lively, humorous, and blends rigorous scientific skepticism with genuine wonder. The hosts and guests convey curiosity, occasional exasperation, and delight as they weigh data against the deeply human desire for meaning and exceptionality.

Takeaway

The episode concludes that while statistics rule much of the apparent “miracle” in streaks, actual human action—especially under the pressure of awareness—blurs the line between random and meaningful. Human unpredictability, as revealed by neuroscience, is both a statistical artifact and an evolved feature, making us “not coins”—but not entirely free from probability either.