Radiolab – “Are You Sure?”
March 26, 2013
Hosts: Jad Abumrad & Robert Krulwich
Producers: Lulu Miller, Pat Walters, et al.
Episode Overview
“Are You Sure?” explores the collision and interplay between certainty and doubt in human experience. Through three storytelling arcs—a personal faith crisis, the logic of poker, and a harrowing legal saga—the Radiolab team investigates how confidence and uncertainty shape our choices, our relationships, and even our justice system. The episode is marked by Radiolab’s signature blend of narrative journalism, intimate interviews, and thoughtful, music-infused soundscapes.
1. The Sound of Doubt [01:20 – 05:20]
Key Points:
- Radio as an exercise in posing questions and editing answers, noticing the natural "music" of certainty (“yes,” “no”) versus doubt (“uh,” “I don’t know…”).
- Certainty has a “staccato” musicality; doubt is more wavering and melodic.
Notable Quote
- “That’s the sound of certainty… But in that second category, the pitches are floating up or down, never stable. That’s the sound of doubt.” – Jad Abumrad [02:00]
2. Story 1: Lulu Miller and the Geologist on the Loneliest Road [05:21 – 37:10]
Part One: The Life of Rocks & the Question of Life
Summary
- Lulu’s childhood affinity for rocks disrupts after a 7th-grade science lesson distinguishes “organic” from “inorganic.”
- As an adult, while biking cross-country, Lulu meets Jeff Vineyard, a geologist on a reflective trip through Nevada.
- Jeff reveals that limestone is formed from the compressed shells of marine plankton—technically, rocks built on once-living material.
- Lulu’s understanding of her beloved rocks is rekindled: “They do have a little bit of life inside them in a real, tangible, seeable way.” [15:10]
Part Two: Doubts of Faith and Love
Summary
- Jeff was riding solo; his fiancée Megan stayed behind due to wedding logistics. He is wrestling with a secret: he's lost his faith.
- “I just thought, shit, I don’t believe in God anymore.” – Jeff [24:10]
- He confides in Lulu; his religious beliefs and impending marriage are now in limbo.
- Jeff’s journey becomes a quest for divine evidence. “If you exist and you’re at all interested in people, show yourself.” [28:00]
- On what was supposed to be his wedding day, Jeff is aimless, waiting for a sign.
Part Three: Aftermath, Resolution, and Renewal
Summary
- Nearly a year later, Jeff reconnects with Lulu. He recounts his ongoing uncertainty.
- A mundane, even embarrassing episode at an Arby’s (ceiling tile falls, minister gives him a new sandwich) provides no conclusive sign, only more confusion.
- Jeff returns home; he and Megan split up. Time passes.
- An unexpected wedding invitation arrives: Jeff and Megan are marrying after all.
- Jeff describes a “palpable presence” during communion, but even then, he’s “still not sure if it was divine or just appreciation for the gesture.” [43:05]
- Megan and Jeff have learned to coexist with religious difference, choosing love amidst residual doubt.
- “After a certain point, we just chose that we were going to love each other anyway.” – Megan [45:30]
Notable Quotes
- “He gives me my friends back. Like, with a scientist’s wand.” – Lulu, on learning about limestone [15:40]
- “It’s confusing sometimes. But I’m okay with that.” – Megan [46:00]
- “Love is a choice.” – Megan [45:41]
- Memorable Moment: Jeff is overcome with emotion reciting vows, an “overwhelming sob” not of certainty, but relief. [47:10]
3. Story 2: The Logic of Doubt – Poker, Pot Odds & Decision Making [48:50 – 01:19:00]
Key Points:
Featuring: Annie Duke (champion poker player and decision strategist), Howard Lederer, and sports journalist Mike Pesca.
Annie Duke on Poker and Uncertainty
- The real game isn’t "reading" others, but making decisions amid uncertainty using probability (not certainty).
- Critical Moment of Skill: “The real breakthrough was when I stopped trying to figure out anything with certainty.” – Annie Duke [51:41]
- Poker’s evolution: From “gut” gamblers to “geeks” driven by data, obsessively deconstructing plays.
Explaining Pot Odds
- Detailed illustration of “pot odds”—when to make a bet, even with only a 20–25% chance of winning.
- “If your pot odds are 25%, all you really need to be is 25% sure… It’s about winning enough of the time, not all the time.” – Annie Duke [01:09:03]
The ‘Bad Beat’ and Probabilism in Life
- Annie’s emotional story of facing her brother in the World Poker Championship ([01:12:00]), winning with a statistical underdog hand, and family reactions.
- “If your superior cards do not win… It’s called a bad beat.” [01:13:40]
- The value of probabilistic thinking: moving beyond shame in losing and learning from the law of large numbers.
Extending Probabilistic Reasoning
- The hosts, with guest Mike Pesca, humorously walk through poker odds tables, folding, betting, and the counterintuitive wisdom of acting on “uncertain” information.
Pascal’s Wager – Betting on God [01:17:00 – 01:20:06]
- The episode draws a line from poker “pot odds” to philosophy: Blaise Pascal’s wager on the rationality of faith.
- “There’s a huge infinite payoff to believing in God… No matter how unlikely, you gotta bet.” – (Paraphrased, segment summary)
- The hosts debate whether faith reached by math is “lesser” than faith by grace or emotion.
Notable Quotes
- “You have to be somewhat out-going, come blind. But sometimes that’s not so easy.” – Annie Duke [01:11:15]
- “If you’re making good decisions, then you’re making good decisions. You just have to be able to live with the outcomes.” – Annie Duke [01:11:40]
- “That’s what Pascal said: If you do the math, believe in God.” – Jad Abumrad [01:18:30]
4. Story 3: The Nature and Cost of Certainty – Penny, Steven Avery, and the Limits of Justice
[01:20:07 – END]
Trigger Warning: This section contains graphic discussion of sexual violence, mistaken identity, and murder.
The Assault and Conviction
- Penny Bernson is attacked while jogging in Wisconsin, 1985.
- She positively identifies Steven Avery as her attacker; her certainty persuades a jury, leading to Avery’s conviction.
- “I was 100% certain Steven Avery was the man who assaulted me.” – Penny [01:32:05]
- Avery’s alibi is dismissed as “too similar” among family witnesses; forensic evidence is inconclusive.
Guilt, Healing, and Shattered Certainty
- Penny struggles with trauma, and anger, until hearing a restorative justice lecture inspires her to reclaim agency.
- She works with prison inmates, seeking to make meaning from pain.
- Years later, DNA retesting exonerates Avery—after 18 years in prison. Penny’s certainty collapses.
Notable Quote
- “That day was worse than the day I was assaulted.” – Penny [01:46:10]
- “If I wrote down every good deed… it would not possibly be sufficient to balance the scales for this horrendous error.” [01:45:50]
Aftermath and Seeking Forgiveness
- The real perpetrator, Gregory Allen, is found and linked via DNA.
- Penny describes a residual visceral reaction to Avery's image, absent with Allen’s, an uncomfortable testament to the persistence of memory and emotion even after intellectual certainty is corrected.
- Penny meets Avery to apologize; Avery responds with grace: “I don’t blame you. I blame the police.” [01:58:30]
- “For him to say ‘It’s over’…that’s one of the most grace-filled things that's ever been said to me.” – Penny [01:59:45]
Unthinkable Twist
- Avery is later charged with murder in the death of Teresa Halbach; initial skepticism gives way to devastating evidence (including confession by Avery’s nephew), and Penny’s judgment is again upended.
- Penny is haunted by “I can’t trust my eyes” and suffers profound doubt in her ability to judge character and reality.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- “I can’t even trust my senses… I can't even judge character. I can't.” – Penny [02:05:19]
- “As long as humans judge other humans… we’re not always going to get it right. That’s the only thing we can be certain of.” – Judge Hazelwood [02:08:35]
- Penny’s reflection: “I think there’s much more doubt, and I think I’m much more comfortable living with uncertainty. I have to be.” [02:13:50]
Thematic Threads and Takeaways
- Certainty vs. Doubt: Each story—faith, luck, and justice—shows the necessity and peril of acting on incomplete, sometimes faulty information.
- Living with Uncertainty: Embracing doubt is presented as both a pragmatic and psychologically healthy way to engage with life.
- Probability and Grace: Whether in love, at the poker table, or in the court, we make choices not with absolute knowledge, but with varying degrees of risk, hope, and trust.
- Humanity in Error: The episode acknowledges the inevitability of mistakes in human judgment, and the rare grace required to forgive and move forward.
Segment Timestamps (MM:SS)
- Sound of Doubt/Introduction – 01:20
- Lulu’s Rock Story & Jeff – 05:21
- Limestone/Life and Rocks – 15:00
- Jeff’s Crisis of Faith – 24:10
- “Supposed to be getting married today” – 30:00
- Arby’s Ceiling Tile Incident – 34:35
- Reunion & Communion – 42:50
- Wedding, Living with Doubt – 46:00
- Poker/Annie Duke Interview – 48:50
- Probabilistic Thinking – 55:00
- Pot Odds Explained – 69:00
- Bad Beat Story – 73:00
- Pascal’s Wager – 77:00
- Penny’s Story Begins – 80:07
- Lineup & Conviction – 91:30
- Exoneration via DNA – 105:00
- Meeting with Avery – 118:30
- Avery Charged Again – 121:00
- Final Reflections – 129:00
Memorable Final Words
- “I think I’m much more comfortable living with uncertainty. I have to be.” – Penny Bernson [02:13:50]
In Summary
Radiolab’s “Are You Sure?” is a deeply human meditation on our yearning for certainty in a world where doubt and ambiguity are ever-present. Through faith, probability, and justice, it asks: Can we act without certainty? Can we live with making mistakes, and still go on choosing, betting, and loving? The episode doesn’t resolve these questions, but invites listeners into dynamic, music-laced uncertainty—a place where, perhaps unexpectedly, we might find relief, humility, and a sliver of grace.