
Is democracy fundamentally broken? Or does i just need a ... tweak? Back in 2018, when this episode first aired, there was a feeling that democracy was on the ropes. In the United States and abroad, citizens of democracies are feeling increasingly alienated, disaffected, and powerless. Some are even asking themselves a question that feels almost too dangerous to say out loud: is democracy fundamentally broken? Today on Radiolab, we ask a different question: how do we fix it? We scrutinize one proposed tweak to the way we vote that could make politics in this country more representative, more moderate, and most shocking of all, more civil. Could this one surprisingly do-able mathematical fix really turn political campaigning from a rude bloodsport to a campfire singalong? And even if we could do that, would we want to? Special thanks to Rob Richie (and everyone else at Fairvote), Don Saari, Diana Leygerman, Caroline Tolbert, Bobby Agee, Edward Still, Jim Blacksher, Allen C...
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Latif Nasser
Radiolab is supported by Dell Shop Dell Technologies Black Friday event for their lowest prices of the year. The Future is on sale today with limited time deals on select PCs like the XPS 16 that accelerate AI with Intel Core Ultra processors. Black Friday is their biggest sale of the year and the best time to upgrade. But it's only here for a limited time. Shop now@dell.com deals that's Dell. Radiolab is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with the name your price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.
Robert Krulwich
Listeners supported WNYC Studios.
Latif Nasser
Hey, it's Latif. Given the approaching American presidential election, we are on week two of our election run. So last week, if you'll remember, we had the story about the dramatic changes in how we covered presidential candidates in this country. Next week we have a brand new episode about why and how we count our votes for president. But this week we have the evolving story of how we cast those votes. The episode I'm about to play for you, it's six years old, which I mean, if you think about the long sweep of American political history, that does not feel like a long time. And yet so much has changed. So when we released this episode, the process we're about to outline for you, like, it was pretty obscure, it was used, I don't know, in a few places, few cities, few states in the U.S. now, this is big time what we are describing to you. It's on the upswing. This is literally going to help decide who the next president is going to be, which I don't know about you that I find that kind of inspiring. It feels like things can actually change in this country. So anyway, we will play the episode now and then we will do a quick update on the flip side. Yeah. So without further ado, here is tweak the vote.
Simon Adler
Wait, you're.
Robert Krulwich
Okay.
Yasha Mounk
All right.
Ab Philbin Bowman
You're listening to Radio Lab Radio from WNY.
Latif Nasser
Rewind. Not just this part of it, but.
Robert Krulwich
I can do that. Yeah.
Yasha Mounk
I'm Robert Krulwich.
Latif Nasser
And I'm Latif Nasser.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Thank you.
Latif Nasser
And today on Radiolab, I Robert, I am going to make you wrestle with your most cherished ideal American democracy.
John Favreau
Oh, I see. Ok, great. Wait, hang on a second. I'm just struggling with the earphones now. I have him on.
Yasha Mounk
Ok. Ok, great.
Latif Nasser
And I'm Going to start things off by introducing you to Yasha.
John Favreau
Yasha Munk. I'm a lecturer on government at Harvard.
Latif Nasser
He studies politics.
John Favreau
Da da da da da da. What I was going to say, maybe.
Latif Nasser
We could just start with where you grew up.
John Favreau
Yeah. So I was. So I was born in 1982. I grew up in Germany, moved around a bunch of different places within Germany as a kid, and then went to college in England, Cambridge in 2000. And I was kind of studying politics. I was a history major.
Latif Nasser
So Yasha was studying politics, but he was studying it in the past. So he was looking at going all the way back to the cradle of democracy in ancient Greece and then how democracy came to thrive around the world. But as he was studying that, he was noticing, you know, in the news, he would see in certain countries like France or Austria, you know, there would be these parties, these far right, ultra nationalist, anti immigrant parties that were starting to gain some traction.
John Favreau
And for Yasha, I saw some of this.
Latif Nasser
This was a little bit scary because.
John Favreau
My family's been in the wrong place at the wrong time for about four generations.
Latif Nasser
His great grandparents perished during the Holocaust.
John Favreau
My grandparents sort of barely survived in the Soviet Union. My parents grew up in Poland and were thrown out of the country in a huge sort of antisemitic wave in 1968. And so the idea that political systems that seem relatively stable and seem relatively peaceful might suddenly turn fractious and even violent is something that I suppose I always had a sort of dim awareness of even as a kid. So I remember being quite worried by this and having friends who were quite worried about it, but we were worried about it as sort of this weird bad thing that's going on. But I don't think we actually thought that these people might win. Jump to the early 2010s.
Latif Nasser
They start winning for the first time. Malin Le Pen will have a seat.
Sara Kari
In Parliament along with seven others from.
Latif Nasser
Her far right party. These far right parties in Austria and France, they start to gain power and it's not just there, but huge swaths of Europe.
John Favreau
What's happening in Italy is also happening elsewhere in Europe.
Latif Nasser
Similar right win parties start rising up in Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary.
Robert Krulwich
An identity crisis for the entire European continent.
Latif Nasser
And it's not just Europe. You have India, Turkey.
Robert Krulwich
And what started off as, of course.
Latif Nasser
The United States, unlikely, impossible, is now reality. Basically, there's this wave of politicians whose.
John Favreau
Message was, people aren't really listening to you.
Latif Nasser
Your government has failed you.
John Favreau
Trust me, I really speak for the people. I'M going to fix everything.
Latif Nasser
And to Yasha, this was, you know, this was like a wake up call. And not just because of immigration policy or right and left leanings of certain politicians, but even more deeply than that.
John Favreau
I was quite worried about the way in which these political movements perhaps pretended to have some allegiance to democratic mechanisms, but actually we were enemies of it.
Latif Nasser
Like, there was this one guy, the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, who.
John Favreau
Glorified the Third Reich in various ways and really harkened back to the country's fascist past in a positive way. That wasn't a far fetched fear, I don't think. I mean, a huge number of the world's dictators have been elected democratically at some point, and then they move against democratic institutions in such a way that you can't displace them democratically anymore.
Latif Nasser
So for Yasha, who by this point was a lecturer at Harvard, he, you know, kept seeing this in country after country after country. He saw these citizens willingly elect these wannabe dictators into power. And so he started wondering, what is making these citizens do this? Do they, do they feel like their current leaders don't get them? Do they, Are they, are they riled up about, you know, some issue of the day like refugees or income inequality? Or is this a sign that they're upset about something even more foundational, the political system itself? Like, are they actually angry with democracy itself?
John Favreau
And so I sat down with a friend and colleague to figure it out.
Latif Nasser
And his friend, it turns out, worked on something called the World Values Survey.
John Favreau
It was just a really ambitious attempt to try and get a public opinion around the world.
Latif Nasser
It's basically just a bunch of social scientists who ask a whole bunch of very standard questions to a whole bunch of people all over the world. And they're like, okay, let's, let's actually, like, scrutinize what, what's being said in here about democracy.
John Favreau
And when we actually looked at the numbers, we were, you know, honestly flabbergasted by what we saw.
Latif Nasser
Okay, so there's actually three questions in particular that he got interested in.
Yasha Mounk
Okay, here.
Latif Nasser
So let's start with this one.
John Favreau
How do you feel about a strong ruler who doesn't have to bother with parliament or elections?
Yasha Mounk
Who doesn't have to bother with parliaments or elections?
Latif Nasser
Correct? Yeah.
Yasha Mounk
Okay.
Latif Nasser
They also asked this of Americans, just instead of doesn't have to bother with parliament, it was doesn't have to bother with Congress. Anyway, so in 1995, 24% of all Americans endorsed that kind of strongman leader, 24.
Yasha Mounk
So you know, one out of every four.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, but in the last several years, that number has jumped from 24 to 32%.
Yasha Mounk
So now it's a third. Almost. That's. Yeah, yeah.
Latif Nasser
Say a strong leader who doesn't have to deal with Congress or elections is either a very good or fairly good thing.
Yasha Mounk
Wow. Well, that surprises me.
Latif Nasser
It's kind of even more striking in Europe.
John Favreau
So in Germany, one in six people used to like that idea, but now.
Yasha Mounk
One in three in Germany, where they should know better.
Latif Nasser
Yeah.
John Favreau
In France and the United Kingdom, it was one in four 20 years ago, and now it's one in two.
Yasha Mounk
Half.
Latif Nasser
Half, yeah.
John Favreau
So every second Brit and Frenchman says, yeah, the idea of a strong ruler who doesn't have to bother with parliament intellections, that's pretty appealing to me.
Yasha Mounk
It's not appealing to me. That is not appealing to me.
Latif Nasser
Yeah.
Yasha Mounk
Who would say that they like to not be involved in a democracy, which is about being involved.
Latif Nasser
Okay, well, if you think that's crazy, here comes question number two, flat out. Simple, straightforward.
John Favreau
How important is it to you to live in a democracy on a scale of 1 to 10? And when you look at Americans born in the 1930s and 1940s, 2/3 of them give the highest importance to living in a democracy. I say that's really essential.
Yasha Mounk
I mean, I agree with. Well, two thirds seems a little soft to me.
Latif Nasser
Sure.
John Favreau
But among Americans born since 1980, it's less than one third.
Latif Nasser
Less than one third. Consider it essential to live in a democracy.
Yasha Mounk
What, less than a third?
Latif Nasser
Yeah.
Yasha Mounk
So of 100 people, 100 young people, 32.
Robert Krulwich
30.
Yasha Mounk
30, 25 would say, I love democracy. That's very important. And the rest, what would the rest say?
Latif Nasser
It's not, it's not the most important thing for them deciding where to live.
Yasha Mounk
Okay, well then if you are, if this is good, where would you like to, like, what would you prefer? Would you like to be living.
Latif Nasser
Okay, well, that's a good segue to the next question. All right, final question, which was about army rule.
John Favreau
So do you think that army rule is a good system of government?
Yasha Mounk
Army rule? So we're not. This is no civilians anymore. Soldiers running the government, soldiers following orders, soldiers giving orders.
John Favreau
So 20 years ago, about 1 in 16Americans fought. There was a good system of government. In the most recent poll a couple of years ago, it was one in six. And among young and affluent Americans, it's actually gone up from 6% to 35%. So it's a nearly six fold increase.
Yasha Mounk
In America, you have one in three young, affluent Americans. A military rule is a wonderful thing, that's what you're saying.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, exactly, yeah.
Yasha Mounk
Misguided or tragic, I don't know which.
Latif Nasser
So Yasha said something, he was like.
John Favreau
Look, I don't think the kernels took over tomorrow. One third of Americans would say, this is wonderful. I don't think that's actually true. But it does show a deep lack of attachment to the current political system and this sense of, you know what I mean, let's try something new. How bad could things get? I didn't think it could be much worse than what we have today.
Yasha Mounk
Here's the thing that gets to me. Let's imagine a well intentioned but totally authoritarian dictator who takes over, gets used to power, and then, as dictators do, chooses to remain in place forever. The adventure of democracy is that it admits that nothing is ever right. We always have to fix it. And the system has built in it. Impermanence. Every six years you elect the senator over again. Every two years you elect the congressman over again. Every four years you can have the option to switch presidents. Presidents can't serve beyond a particular point. There will be checks, there will be balances, there will be protection. But the whole thing admits that there's always change and always the ability to change. And this survey you just read me says, nah, we don't believe in it anymore. Well, that's dangerous to me, scary to me. And I think my response is, if that's the case, and I don't argue that people have these opinions, if that's the case, then let's fix it. Let's not throw it out, let's repair it in some way. But that's what it seems like a moment like this calls for. That's the speech.
Latif Nasser
Basically you're saying, let's fix it.
Yasha Mounk
Yeah.
Latif Nasser
Yeah. Well, I mean, and there's, there's a lot to fix, right? Obviously there's corporate money and special interest lobbyists and gerrymandering and minority groups who don't get a voice and active voter suppression in a lot of places. The weirdness of the electoral college, the two party system in general, where it seems like they have nothing to do except for hate on each other. But I figured let's like, let's just focus on one thing, voting. Like, is there a way to just tweak this fundamental part of democracy? Like can we change the way we vote so that people don't feel as many people now do, that they're throwing their vote away, that their vote doesn't count that their vote is wasted.
Yasha Mounk
Okay, so what would you suggest?
Latif Nasser
So what I got is a It's kind of an alternate universe. It's a different way of doing elections that could have a profound effect on the way our democracy works. And we'll get to that right after a quick break. Radiolab is supported by Made In Cookware. As a Radiolab listener, you know we like to nerd out and explore things like how seagulls from the 1970s shook up our understanding of what's natural in all of us animals and how far the moon actually is. The usual Made In Cookware is into exploration too, creating products that help us answer questions like have you wanted to cook lobster but balked because the process seemed too intimidating? When it comes to picking the right ones and what tools you need to dig in, it can seem like a lot. Armed with Made In's Stainless Clad stock pot and their how to Cook Lobster blog post, there's no need to be afraid. With their professional grade stainless clad carbon steel, nonstick and enameled cast iron cookware collections, Made in lets you focus on memorable meals. Cook like a pro with Made In. For full details, visit madeincookware.com that's M A D E I N cookware.com WNYC.
Simon Adler
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Latif Nasser
Hey, John Favreau here. There's no shortage of political takes in 2024, but quantity doesn't cut it. We need a better conversation about the latest, biggest election of lives on Pod Save America. Me and my co host cut through the noise to help you figure out what matters and how you can help. Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, Pod Save America is breaking down the political news that makes us laugh, cry and snap our laptops in half. Expensive year for laptops. Make sure to check out new episodes of Pod Save America on your favorite podcast platform or our YouTube channel now, Latif Radio Lab. We are back. A.B.
Robert Krulwich
Can you hear me?
Ab Philbin Bowman
Yes.
Robert Krulwich
There we are.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Oh, good. Okay, cool.
Latif Nasser
And we're going to start off with producer Simon Adler.
Robert Krulwich
Yeah. So in search of democratic inspiration, I called across the ocean to the Emerald Isle to talk to this guy.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So My name is Ab Philbin Bowman. I currently work for Orgy Radio 1 on the drive time program.
Robert Krulwich
Ab is a radio producer reporter for Ireland's equivalent to the BBC known as rte. And he's a self described election nerd.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Okay, so to sort of start from the start, please. The way I would look at this is American democracy is one of the oldest democracies in the world. It's kind of like a laptop from 1985. And at the time everybody was like, oh, my God, this is incredible. It's so fast, it's so responsive. You're gonna get so much stuff done with this. And to be fair, you did. But you've gotta keep updating your operating system, otherwise pretty soon your democracy is struggling to deal with things like Facebook newsfeeds and Twitter and leaves itself open to being hacked by Russia. Now in Ireland, we got our democracy a little bit later, the 1920s.
Robert Krulwich
Okay.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And at that point, democracy had moved on from the 1770s, 1780s, when you guys sort of brought in your democracy and we adopted this, what was then quite modern voting system called prstv.
Robert Krulwich
Prstv, exactly. It sounds a bit like an std.
Ab Philbin Bowman
It does sound quite like a sexually transmitted infection. It does, yes.
Yasha Mounk
Oh, this seems like dead in the water for him. Hello.
Ab Philbin Bowman
The extended version is multi seize pr. That really sounds like an sti. It's not.
Yasha Mounk
One more time, say it again.
Robert Krulwich
Multi Seat prstv, which stands for Multi.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Seat Proportional representation by Single Transferable Vote.
Latif Nasser
I have no idea what that means.
Robert Krulwich
Well, weird as it might sound, this is a system of voting that, unlike ours, can make every voter feel heard. Gets you candidates who best reflect the collective interest of the people and make sure no one ever feels like they're throwing their vote away.
Yasha Mounk
I don't believe you.
Robert Krulwich
You don't have to believe me.
Latif Nasser
Oh, okay, I'm following. Tell us, tell us how this impossible feat, how does this even work?
Robert Krulwich
I'm walking through the lower Part of Dublin Central. Well, let's just put this in concrete terms.
Latif Nasser
Great.
Robert Krulwich
Okay. So 2016, there's an election for the National Parliament in the Dublin Central district. It's blocks of brick row houses punctuated by these brightly colored pink or purple or yellow doors. You can think of it like an election district in Ireland. It's what's known as a constituency. A couple adult stores, low rise white public housing units.
Maureen O'Sullivan
It's a predominantly working class constituency with a lot of difficulties.
Robert Krulwich
This is Maureen O'Sullivan, a longtime resident of the constituency with a shock of white hair.
Maureen O'Sullivan
And I've always been involved with youth clubs, et cetera, doing voluntary work and then teaching in communities in the area.
Robert Krulwich
And so back In February of 2016, this area of Dublin, along with the rest of the country, was holding their parliamentary elections. Elections for what they called TDs.
Latif Nasser
Wait, what are TDs?
Maureen O'Sullivan
Right, okay, well, TD is the Irish, the Gaelic for choctadole, which translates into Member of Parliament.
Robert Krulwich
At that time, Dublin Central had three of these TD seats. Three people representing them in Parliament.
Maureen O'Sullivan
One of whom I was elected in 2009 was Maureen. And I would be, I am independent, not allied with any party.
Robert Krulwich
And going into that 2016 election, things were looking pretty uncertain for Maureen. First of all, there was a field of 15 candidates running for those three seats and worse. Seats one and two were expected to be snagged quite easily by these two high profile major party candidates. Yeah, this again is A.B. bowman, who actually covered this 2016 election.
Ab Philbin Bowman
They're not locked down, but these are people who look like they are going to get elected.
Robert Krulwich
And what that means is you've got this wide open field of folks all fighting against Maureen for that third and final seat.
Yasha Mounk
Who is our contenders?
Robert Krulwich
Well, right, so we're going to focus in on two of them. Can I just get you to introduce yourself?
Ab Philbin Bowman
Of course, yeah.
Sara Kari
So I'm Mary Fitzpatrick.
Robert Krulwich
First, we've got Mary Fitzpatrick.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, yeah.
Robert Krulwich
On the spectrum of American politics, do you know where you fall?
Latif Nasser
But you just have two parties.
Robert Krulwich
She's pretty liberal. Been around Irish politics for a while.
Gary Gannon
You interview me already. Okay, we're on.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And second, Gary Gannon, who's a young.
Robert Krulwich
Community worker, this brash guy with red stubble on his face.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Quite interesting, quite authentic. And he's sort of an interesting one.
Robert Krulwich
To watch because he's representing this brand new political party.
Gary Gannon
A plucky upstart, I think that's what they call it in the West Wing. I remember, yeah.
Robert Krulwich
And did you have a slogan or anything like.
Gary Gannon
Yes, no. What an amazing slogan. It was very simple. And it was just the one word, if. I stole it completely from an old fable about when the Macedonian army was marching on Sparta and they sent Sparta a message saying that if we win, we will born Sparta to the ground. We will enslave your women and kill your children. And Sparta sent back a one word message, just saying if.
Robert Krulwich
If, like I said, brash.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And then you've got other voices who are left wing or environmentalist or others.
Robert Krulwich
So that's our field.
Latif Nasser
All right?
Robert Krulwich
And now here's how things actually work over in Ireland.
Simon Adler
Voting is underway in the Republic of Ireland as the country elects 157 new members of its parliament.
Robert Krulwich
So day of the election comes. As an Irish citizen, you walk into the voting booth, and it's a very, very long ballot because it has all of the candidates, all 15 of them. Their photo, their name, and then a line next to them, okay? And this ballot is a key component of that updated Irish Laptop of democracy, because instead of just filling in the circle next to one of those 15.
Ab Philbin Bowman
You say, my number one choice is this guy. My number two choice is this lady. My number three choice is this person. And you can go all the way down the ballot giving preferences to as many different people as you like.
Robert Krulwich
You write in a number next to each candidate.
Yasha Mounk
How about one man, one vote? Got it.
Robert Krulwich
Well, it's still one man, one vote.
Latif Nasser
No, it can't be.
Robert Krulwich
No, it is. It is. It is. It is. At the end of the day, your vote will only have counted for one person. However, in the voting process, you're not.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Just measuring what everyone's first choice is like. You might have a favorite choice, but you're not totally equal about the other three choices. And what this system allows us to do is to reflect that.
Robert Krulwich
It allows you to say how you feel about the rest of the candidates. And if your first choice doesn't make it, if he or she is way down the list and out of the running, then your vote lives on in the form of your second choice.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So for as long as there's a viable candidate with your number on it, your vote will stay alive in the system.
Yasha Mounk
Is this too early for me to raise a warning flag or should I wait?
Robert Krulwich
You can wave. I may ignore it, but let's see it or hear it.
Yasha Mounk
The commitment that people make to voting is slight. Most of us are into lunch, sports, work, and then maybe on the day of a vote, they have their best friend. So you gotta vote for Sally like they know one.
Latif Nasser
They're not even gonna know. Seven.
Yasha Mounk
Yeah. So the first smell of this is it would take us more time than we want and we might walk away from this exercise because we don't feel prepared.
Robert Krulwich
You can engage with this on whatever level you'd like, Robert. If you only know one candidate's name, you can just put your one next to that person and hand in your ballot and you're done. Or let's say there's a candidate on there you really, really don't like.
Ab Philbin Bowman
You can leave them off the ballot entirely.
Robert Krulwich
You're ranking your preferences. It's very simple.
Yasha Mounk
Fairly good answer.
Robert Krulwich
Okay, so let me walk you through how this plays out. So Polls close at 10pm on Friday, February 26.
Gary Gannon
And then, then all hell broke loose.
Ab Philbin Bowman
General Election 2016 on RTE Radio One.
Latif Nasser
With Rachel English and Sean Orwell.
Robert Krulwich
The real action begins.
Ab Philbin Bowman
It's going to be a day of.
Latif Nasser
Drama, shocks and surprises.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So what happens is we vote on the Friday and on Saturday morning, the.
Robert Krulwich
Votes actually get counted. So for Dublin Central, Dublin Central gets.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Counted in one central location, which is the rds.
Latif Nasser
Let's go first to Ireland's largest count.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Center, the rds, the Royal Dublin Society.
Latif Nasser
Sean, thank you very much.
Simon Adler
Welcome indeed to the RDS Square.
Robert Krulwich
This barn like building with big vaulted.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Ceilings, big, big hall, huge amount of noise.
Latif Nasser
Firstly, welcome to the Cal center here in.
Gary Gannon
Okay, well, I didn't realize we were gonna go through the post traumatic trauma of the whole thing. I've kind of blacked it out. No, I'm joking. Actually, was lovely.
Robert Krulwich
The doors open at 9 o'clock and I arrived Elizabeth throng arriving. This is Mel, Mel Mucky Boone. He's a campaign worker for our endangered incumbent, Maureen Maureen O'Sullivan. And on the morning of the count, as he pushed his way through these heavy wooden doors, what he would have seen was this cavernous hall filled with people milling about.
Gary Gannon
Everybody's got clipboards, there's people with tons of sandwiches made and tea and coffee in abundance, and everybody's really excited.
Robert Krulwich
And so shortly after 9:00, all the boxes come in, these giant metal boxes of ballots.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So the boxes are opened, literally they're.
Robert Krulwich
Lifted up and there is a cascade and a spilling of all this paper.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Because it's all done by paper voting.
Latif Nasser
Wait, what?
Ab Philbin Bowman
Yeah, we tried electronic voting in this country and we didn't like it because it was very fast. And I think we realized that the drama of an election and also the ritual of democracy gets everybody engaged and gets people watching. It's like watching a big sports game. You don't want it to be over in five minutes thereafter.
Robert Krulwich
And so, time now for our live update.
Latif Nasser
I have to, as we always do at this time on this day, we're talking tallies, first of all, which obviously.
Robert Krulwich
Can skew the results not just at the RDS and not just for Dublin Central, but all across the country.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Vote counters are dumping boxes of votes and going through them and putting them into stacks. First in Kilkenny is Justin McCarthy.
Robert Krulwich
Rough bundles, in no particular order, 75%.
Latif Nasser
Of the boxes have been tallied here.
Robert Krulwich
And they include so early on here. The counters are just trying to get a handle on how many first choice votes each candidate is getting from cavan.
Gary Gannon
Audrey Carville.
Simon Adler
100% of the boxes are open.
Sara Kari
And.
Robert Krulwich
And, well, the ballot counters are doing this official count. There's another group of people standing next.
Ab Philbin Bowman
To them up the Atlantic way in.
Robert Krulwich
Donegal doing their own unofficial calculations.
Gary Gannon
Yes, definitely. The tally men.
Ab Philbin Bowman
88% of boxes opened untallied.
Latif Nasser
Cork, North Central.
Ab Philbin Bowman
All boxes opened, all sheets tallied.
Robert Krulwich
These tallymen, there are several of them put forward by each candidate.
Gary Gannon
And they're just looking over the railings waiting for you to turn that ballot brash up.
Robert Krulwich
Star Gary Gannon again.
Gary Gannon
So they can shout out the name of the person that got the number one preference.
Latif Nasser
Higgins.
Gary Gannon
They're like Gannon, number one. Gannon, Burke, Gallagher. And they're just counting them up.
Latif Nasser
And what they're counting is number one.
Robert Krulwich
Yes, they're shouting out and tallying the first choice labeled on each ballot.
Gary Gannon
So you have an understanding whether you're.
Robert Krulwich
At the races or not, which it seemed like Gary was.
Latif Nasser
We have a 98% tally and there is a growing belief here that the third seat will be between Gary Gannon and.
Robert Krulwich
He was getting a lot of first preferences.
Gary Gannon
So I walked in. I got pulled over by one of our national newspapers to do an interview.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Let's bring Gary Gannon in.
Latif Nasser
Hiya, Gary.
Maureen O'Sullivan
It's too early to be saying you're.
Simon Adler
Over the line, but you're going well in Dublin Central.
Gary Gannon
Oh, God, it's far too early. All the radio researchers are coming over, grabbing me, bringing me over to speak on the radio.
Simon Adler
There's a bunch of you done 9% as well.
Latif Nasser
So we could be in for another dog.
Gary Gannon
Absolutely, yeah. I've canceled my weekend plans. I think I'll be. I think I'll be here for a while. It was genuine, like a real nice sense of excitement, but not for everyone.
Maureen O'Sullivan
So that morning I was at home.
Robert Krulwich
Doing different things again. This is incumbent Moreno Sullivan. What did you do, did you make breakfast? Did you go for a walk?
Maureen O'Sullivan
I did. I had my breakfast above. I walked the dog. What type of dog? A white fluffy dog.
Robert Krulwich
Okay, what's his name?
Maureen O'Sullivan
His name is Bailey. So I brought him for a walk.
Robert Krulwich
Are you listening to the radio? You're totally disconnected.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Yeah, pretty much. I let my campaigners go over to be part of the tally.
Robert Krulwich
Campaigners? It's starting to kind of including Mel. So within the first hour from some of the tallies that we were seeing, you know, like Maureen isn't picking up enough votes. I would say, oh, I hope this is not going to be an early day where there's no need for you to hang around because nobody's in the race any longer.
Maureen O'Sullivan
And then I think I was driving when I got the first call from my campaigners over in the count saying it's not looking good.
Simon Adler
Let's go back now to the busiest.
Latif Nasser
Count center of them all, to Mary.
Simon Adler
Wilson in the rts.
Latif Nasser
Rachel, thank you very much.
Simon Adler
A first count imminent, we believe, here in Dublin Central.
Robert Krulwich
Meanwhile, the counters take all those ballots now officially sorted by first preference, and they pick up the stack for each candidate on the table and walk that.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Stack back to this wooden shelving unit.
Robert Krulwich
Again, Mary Fitzpatrick behind the tables at.
Ab Philbin Bowman
A little bit of a distance in.
Robert Krulwich
The center, this giant sort of cubby.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Pigeonholes, just like light flimsy wooden boxes.
Robert Krulwich
And this is the sacred shrine of Irish democracy on this day.
Latif Nasser
The Kabi.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Absolutely. Because. Because when they've counted all of the.
Robert Krulwich
First preference votes, they placed them all in their respective cubbies. There's a hush in that part of the arena.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And the returning officer stands up on a stage with a microphone and goes.
Gary Gannon
Following is the result of count one.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Here is the first count for the constituency of Dublin Central.
Yasha Mounk
68, 66.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And they read out every candidate. How many number one votes did they get? And first off the bat, at the.
Robert Krulwich
End of the first count, first and second are pretty much locked down with the two people everybody expected to win. But, but, but, but then in third place unexpectedly is Mary Fitzpatrick.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Yeah, I mean I was very pleased to be in third position on the first count.
Robert Krulwich
Now with our system of voting at this point, you're done, the election's over. The two front runner candidates would have each won a seat and then Mary Fitzpatrick would have won a seat. Gary and Maureen, they'd be out done.
Ab Philbin Bowman
But in Ireland, not.
Robert Krulwich
So in Ireland, they're just getting started. So back to the race and remember, at this moment, Mary Fitzpatrick is in third Gary is in fifth and in seventh.
Maureen O'Sullivan
At that stage, I was listening to the radio, and I knew what they were saying about Dublin Central is incumbent Maureen O'Sullivan. And what were they saying?
Latif Nasser
It appears almost certain that Joe Costume and Maureen O'Sullivan are set to lose out.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Myself and Joe Costalo. You're out. I had some.
Robert Krulwich
Why?
Maureen O'Sullivan
Because of the numbers. I think the feeling was I was too far down that first preference to come back up.
Ab Philbin Bowman
But I've been looking at the early results coming in from around the country.
Robert Krulwich
But like I said, it's not over yet.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So the way the vote progresses is the sheriff or the presiding officer starts to eliminate candidates. The first elimination is the bottom three candidates. Those candidacies are gone and in the bin.
Robert Krulwich
Since Gary's in fifth and Maureen's in seventh, they're safe for now. But the bottom three candidates, they're gone.
Latif Nasser
Why three?
Robert Krulwich
Because they are so far out that mathematically they could never come back. Between the three of them, they've only got, like, 150 votes.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So we get rid of all three.
Robert Krulwich
Of them and redistribute those ballots.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So if you voted for those people.
Robert Krulwich
They'D just go, okay, who did you vote for as your second choice?
Ab Philbin Bowman
And the point is, your vote is still alive and is still part of this election.
Robert Krulwich
And so those 150 votes, those 150 ballots, they begin to do this sort of ballet.
Ab Philbin Bowman
The ballots are all in these pigeonholes. Everything is visible.
Robert Krulwich
The vote counters walk back to that shrine, to that cubby.
Sara Kari
Yeah, yeah.
Robert Krulwich
And pull the ballots from the cubbyholes for those three candidates. Then march these ballots back to the front table and sort them then into.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Bundles of second preference on the ballot.
Robert Krulwich
So now you've got stacks for every candidate that was listed as a second.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Choice, and we distribute them, they take.
Robert Krulwich
Them back to the cubby where they are then added to the remaining candidate's.
Ab Philbin Bowman
First preferences, and that becomes the second count.
Latif Nasser
Okay.
Yasha Mounk
Okay. So what they want is everybody who voted to the degree that it is possible should maybe be participating in electing somebody to the legislature.
Robert Krulwich
Exactly. All right, so.
Yasha Mounk
Excuse me, what time is it now?
Robert Krulwich
We're probably middle of the afternoon at this point.
Yasha Mounk
And when do we start?
Robert Krulwich
We started at 9 in the morning.
Yasha Mounk
Okay, point taken.
Robert Krulwich
People are having a good time.
Latif Nasser
No, no, no.
Yasha Mounk
What do you mean? I am now watching this program for five hours. That's a long time.
Robert Krulwich
I will challenge your. That just because a competition unfolds slowly that it is without drama or suspense.
Yasha Mounk
All right, I'm sorry that we're making this so hard for you, that's fine, but you are not making it easy for us. Anyway, back to the scene.
Latif Nasser
Dublin Central is reduced to three seats.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So I'm looking at this going okay.
Robert Krulwich
Mary Fitzpatrick, our candidate in third after.
Ab Philbin Bowman
The first count, has 2,500 votes. Gary Gannon currently in fifth. He's only 200 votes behind her. And my instinct is he's gonna be more transfer friendly.
Robert Krulwich
He's gonna get more second choice votes than her.
Ab Philbin Bowman
I think he could overtake her. And I start watching where the transfers are going, and I start to be proven right.
Latif Nasser
Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats did.
John Favreau
Very well on transfers.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So count two. Gary Gannon is getting 20 votes and Mary Fitzpatrick's only getting two.
Robert Krulwich
Count three, the whole process repeats. Knock somebody out, do the ballot ballet, redistribute those transfers.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Gary gannon picks up 60 votes and Mary Fitzpatrick only picks up seven. So he's gaining honor already.
Gary Gannon
They're talking about me. They're asking, who is this guy? Where is he coming from, all of these things. And then I was getting phone calls.
Robert Krulwich
Mary's stock is falling while Gary's stock is staying.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Mary's stock is staying static. You know, we were struggling for transfers. That was the issue. She's not going up much and the others are gaining on her. So, yeah, it's painful, it's not pleasant. And bear in mind, you've still got other people picking up boats there.
Robert Krulwich
We're seeing little pickups for Maureen.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Maureen picked up 49, but not a lot.
Robert Krulwich
We're moving ahead slowly.
Latif Nasser
Okay, we have a Dublin Central count coming in.
Robert Krulwich
Count four again. Eliminate the bottom candidate. Redistribute those votes. This time around, really not much changes. Then count five.
Ab Philbin Bowman
The next person going out has got 800 votes. 31 of them go to Mary Fitzpatrick, but also 190 of them go to Gary Gannon.
Latif Nasser
Gary Gannon has surprised a lot of people in his ability to pick up transfers from.
Ab Philbin Bowman
And Gary Gannon has just jumped into fourth place. We've got quite a fight now on our hands.
Latif Nasser
The standings as they are.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So at the places are Mary Fitzpatrick in third place.
Robert Krulwich
She's just barely holding on. In fourth, hot on her heels, is Gary Gannon. And then way at the back of the pack, still in seventh is incumbent Maureen O'Sullivan.
Ab Philbin Bowman
That's the state of play at count five. Count number six.
Simon Adler
Oh, here we go. Continuing coverage. Michael Gallagher is here.
Robert Krulwich
Guys, hello.
Simon Adler
We're back.
Ab Philbin Bowman
This is where two big things happen.
Latif Nasser
Everybody's having their own conversations.
Simon Adler
Obviously one Mary Lou MacDonald of Sinn Fein and Dublin.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Mary Lou MacDonald of Sinn Fein, one.
Robert Krulwich
Of the frontrunners, expected to take a.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Seat, gets over the line and also.
Gary Gannon
I'm walking around just hugging people.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Gary Gannon now jumps into third place.
Robert Krulwich
It was invigorating pushing Mary Fitzpatrick out of a winning spot like that.
Ab Philbin Bowman
It was on the transfers. I got caught and that's it.
Robert Krulwich
She never recaptured it. So the woman who, under our system would have won off the bat, she lost out.
Ab Philbin Bowman
That is it. You know.
Robert Krulwich
Still hanging on in second to last, but also disheartened, is our incumbent, Maureen O'Sullivan, who's expecting to lose.
Maureen O'Sullivan
And I suppose maybe 7 o'clock people started to arrive.
Robert Krulwich
She actually invited her campaign staff and volunteers back to her place for a concession party.
Maureen O'Sullivan
And I said, when people came in, I don't want to know anything about the elections. I'll catch up tomorrow. Unknown to me, because I was busy with the tea and the drinks and the food. Some of them in the House were still in contact with those over in.
Simon Adler
The RDS to the Dublin Central Constituency and to Our reporter, Damien O'Mara. Damian, you have a development report.
Robert Krulwich
One of those guys still over in the RDS was Mel. I did have a sense looking at the numbers and saying, well, okay, but if. And then maybe there's a chance there's a chance in this. Well, was that a crazy thought to have or a very smart thought to have? It was just a thought to have because despite the fact that all day the media had been saying that Maureen was out.
Latif Nasser
Maureen O'Sullivan set to lose, outgoing TD Maureen O'Sullivan. Maureen O'Sullivan might be illegal.
Robert Krulwich
At count seven, something starts to happen.
Latif Nasser
Three furlongs to go.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Coming around the bend, Gary Gannon looks like he's in pole position.
Gary Gannon
But all of a sudden we weren't reallocating people's second preferences or their third preferences. We'd got to the stage where we were reallocating people's fourth, fifth and sixth preferences.
Robert Krulwich
Cause keep in mind, most people's votes are still sloshing around the system. And at this point, not only has their top choice been knocked out, but they're second and third as well. So their vote is now being cast for their fourth, fifth or a sixth place choice. And a lot of those, they start going to Maureen.
Gary Gannon
She's known people for years, been elected twice previous to that. So even people who weren't voting for number one, number two, number three, their votes were still carrying past the fours and the FOIA's and just mauled me on those transfers.
Ab Philbin Bowman
So we go to count eight, beginning.
John Favreau
To make a bit of ground into the straight.
Robert Krulwich
Maureen makes this massive jump, vaulting her ahead of two opponents into fourth place. Now just a couple hundred votes behind Gary. Did you have any sense this week?
Maureen O'Sullivan
No, no, no, because I didn't have the television on and they decided not to tell me, not to raise my hopes.
Ab Philbin Bowman
We're on the ninth count at the moment.
Robert Krulwich
So the ninth count, the situation is that another candidate is axed. They redistribute her votes.
Latif Nasser
It's.
Robert Krulwich
It's coming down, it's coming down to it. When they count up those transfer, does.
Simon Adler
That mean then that Gary Gannon is.
Latif Nasser
Likely to be elected?
Simon Adler
Or what's the situation there? Michael Gallagher.
Robert Krulwich
Maureen gets some 300 more transfers than Gary, meaning suddenly Gary gannon is precisely.
London Breed
Eight votes ahead of Maureen O'Sullivan.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Oh my God, I did not see that coming.
Maureen O'Sullivan
She's within eight votes of him around quarter to ten.
Robert Krulwich
But Maureen meanwhile is still convinced she's gonna lose. She's actually heading down to the count center to concede the race.
Maureen O'Sullivan
I said to myself, I should go over and concede. So came out into the car and as I'm driving over to concede, I was just at the traffic lights, I can picture. And at that stage the phone call comes.
Robert Krulwich
She looks at her phone and it's one of her campaign staff calling.
Maureen O'Sullivan
I thought, why are they ringing me? Just to hurry me up to get over or whatever.
Robert Krulwich
But in fact they were calling because in Dublin Central.
Simon Adler
But Brian Dowling, you've been just as I mention your name, Brian, we're going to Dublin Central.
Robert Krulwich
My last time up.
Ab Philbin Bowman
This is the result of the 11th count for Dublin Central.
Gary Gannon
And I deem.
Latif Nasser
The following candidate to be elected and.
Robert Krulwich
They are Maureen O'Sullivan in her car. Maureen did eventually pick up and then.
Maureen O'Sullivan
It was, where are you? You're about to be Alexis, you're going to be elected.
Robert Krulwich
She put down the phone, drove to the count center and when she arrived.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Great applause, great hugs, great kisses. So it was just a lovely explosion of feeling, warm feelings towards me from everybody.
Latif Nasser
Maureen O'Sullivan.
Simon Adler
Congratulations.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Thank you very much.
Latif Nasser
You're a very relieved woman.
Maureen O'Sullivan
I'm a stunned woman. I was at home, reconciled to a new life. I of politics. And then suddenly I'm back in the frame. We had thought that we were too far behind to. So I just said, look, I know what Lazarus felt like. It was, it was that kind of moment.
Robert Krulwich
So is this a story of multi seat proportional representation by single Transferable vote working out exactly as it's meant to. Or is this sort of a perversion of the system?
Gary Gannon
No, it absolutely is. It worked that day. Worked out exactly as single transferable votes was meant to do.
Robert Krulwich
One last time, the gracious Gary Gannon.
Gary Gannon
Everybody got their. Everybody got their say, and everybody got their vote. Don't get me wrong when I say, like, it did hurt, but, I mean, I was 28, 29 then. Like, there was a huge sense of, like, we'll show you and we'll be back. So single transferable vote on that day worked against me, but, you know, I think it worked out perfectly.
Yasha Mounk
Perfectly. I mean, let me just see if I get this right. There's this woman, Maureen, who hardly anybody loves. She scores almost no votes as the favorite. She's just everybody's, you know, fourth, fifth, sixth. I'll choose Maureen. And yet, because the votes are keeping getting shuffled and shuffled and shuffled, It's Ms. Meh who becomes the winner. Like, she's. She's chosen because a lot of people don't hate her.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, well, so. So here's what it makes me think of, right? And I had this moment where I was just imagining if we had been using this at various crucial moments in our very recent history, things could have gone an entirely different way. Take the American presidential election of 2016, okay, between Don, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, but also Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
Yasha Mounk
Yeah, but nobody voted for them.
Latif Nasser
Well, no, but hardly. Hardly anybody. That number of hardly anybody's. That was. That's a sizable enough number that they could have swung the election one way or the other. If you look at really key states, the deciding states. If you presume Gary Johnson's votes were split, and if you presume all of Jill Stein's votes went to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and the whole kit and caboodle.
Yasha Mounk
Whoa, that's interesting.
Latif Nasser
Now, the weird thing is you can just keep playing this game, and it'll drive you crazy, but you can keep playing it. So if you go back to the 2016 Republican primaries where Donald Trump emerged victorious, right? Over 10 people or something like that. Over 10 people, right. But there was a sizable number of people in those primaries who were never Trumpers. If those people had been able to block their votes together, they might have been able to rally behind a candidate who was not Donald Trump. And then rewind even further back the 2000 election, where the number of votes that Ralph Nader got in Florida were more than the difference between Bush got and Gore.
Yasha Mounk
Got now elect a Republican, can you?
Latif Nasser
Okay, so go back to Ross Perot, right? George H.W. bush was running against Bill Clinton in 1992. Ross Perot. It's very controversial whether he really was a spoiler in that election. But I mean, if you ask the Bush people, they say he definitely was. And so if the Perores went to Bush, then like Bill Clinton would have just been a historical footnote. He wouldn't have been the president. Like, it's like a huge, huge seismic difference in world history. So when we come back, we're not going to be looking at my own imaginative math. We're going to look at what is ranked choice actually look like if it was in the United States. Because it is in the United States.
Yasha Mounk
It's about to happen.
Latif Nasser
Yeah.
Yasha Mounk
When we come back.
Latif Nasser
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Hey, Jon Favreau here. There's no shortage of political takes in 2024, but quantity doesn't cut it. We need a better conversation about the latest, biggest election of our lives. On Pod Save America, me and my co host cut through the noise to help you figure out what matters and how you can help. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, Pod Save America is breaking down the political news that makes us laugh, cry, and snap our laptops in half. Expensive year for laptops. Make sure to check out new episodes of Pod Save America on your favorite podcast platform or our YouTube channel now.
Yasha Mounk
Welcome back. I'm Robert Krulwich.
Latif Nasser
I'm Latif Nasser, and this is Radiolab.
Yasha Mounk
And we're trying to fix democracy in this hour in little bits and pieces.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, so let me. Let me just back up for a second because we have been talking about this and thinking about this around the office for a little while, and at some point, as we were. As we were kind of meditating on this dwindling faith in democracy, one of our fellow producers at our sister show More Perfect.
Sara Kari
Okay. Sara.
Latif Nasser
Sara. Kari. She just took me and Simon. Great, great. And just dragged us into a studio.
Sara Kari
Okay. So we've been having this conversation about whether our democracy is broken for, like, a few months now. And like, every meeting that we've had, I've been the one in the room being like, guys, our democracy is fine. Like, have you seen other places? This is crazy. Like, who are these people that think, like, our democracy is broken? Like, they don't know what they are talking about.
Latif Nasser
And do you know why? Like, where. Where. Where's that feeling coming from?
Sara Kari
Well, okay, can you tell me your name? Uzma. And who are you? Probably because of this woman. I'm usma. I'm Uzma. Who are you in relation to me? Oh, I'm your mom. My mom. And both of my parents actually grew up in Pakistan. That is the beginning 25 years of my life where I spend and I feel. Which is a pretty young country. And it's. It's just struggled so much to keep its democracy alive and healthy. And I saw. And the consequences of not getting the full democracy there in Pakistan. So that then after living 25 years of next 25 years of my life in America, I really found out the value of democracy as an Individual and as a group also. So I can differentiate now very well between those two. So that's kind of how I've always understood our democracy. But then, Simon, I listened to your Ireland story with all of this ranked choice voting stuff and that's the first moment when I was like, oh, like maybe our way of doing things is broken. Like maybe we do need an update.
Robert Krulwich
Okay. And okay, why, what about it made you switch teams?
Sara Kari
Because it made me suddenly aware of the fact that in our system, candidates don't actually need a majority of the votes to win.
Latif Nasser
Right.
Sara Kari
So you, you have candidates who then make that calculation where they say I only really have to win the votes of people who are in my base. And if that's, if those, if my base is bigger than everybody else's base, then like, screw everyone else.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, it seems like in a democracy most people should vote for the person who wins. Not just that the person who wins is going to have the biggest base to a bigger base than everybody else. It should be that most people are in some way in some preference supporting the person who comes to power.
Sara Kari
Yeah, exactly. And it's funny, when I heard about ranked choice voting, I was like, oh, this system is so cool because I feel like it addresses that exact problem. And so I totally got sucked into it. And I started looking around and it turns out there are a bunch of people who think that this could be used here in the US and not only that, it already is. And when I asked around, a number of people pointed to this moment in 2000 with the election when Bush loses the popular election, but he wins because he wins in Florida. And so people look at the results in Florida and see that a bunch of votes that might have gone to Al Gore, they go instead to Ralph Nader, who then becomes sort of notorious as this spoiler that maybe ruined the election for Al gore. And after 2000, at that point, you do see some cities that start to adopt ranked choice voting at the local level. And so what I did is, okay.
Latif Nasser
I'm putting my phone on airplane mode.
Sara Kari
I grabbed Latif and we kind of did this like cross country ranked choice voting tour. And the first place we're going to start with. Hello, San Francisco. Yes, San Francisco is here is San Francisco. Is this Dominic?
London Breed
Yes, this is.
Sara Kari
Oh, hey, Dominic, what's up?
London Breed
Hi. What's up?
Sara Kari
So this is Dominic Fricassa.
London Breed
Check, check, check.
Sara Kari
Yeah, he used to do radio.
Latif Nasser
You got the pipes for it, Dominic.
London Breed
Hey, let me know if you need any ad spots so we can get right to it, you know.
Latif Nasser
Okay, cool.
Sara Kari
But he now he's a reporter at the San Francisco Chronicle.
London Breed
I'm a City hall reporter. Order for the Chronicle. Yeah, so the very first ranked choice election in San Francisco happened in 2004, but it was actually ranked choice voting became, I guess, the city's method, or the city's system, if you will, back in 2002, where there was a ballot initiative that was passed by voters that said, like, look, this is going to be the system that we're going to implement going forward. So the vast majority of local elected offices are chosen with. With ranked choice contests. So City council, the Board of Supervisors, the school board, our, like, assessor recorder.
Sara Kari
And in one very specific election.
London Breed
The case in the mayor's race.
Sara Kari
The case in the mayor's race.
London Breed
Okay, great. I can't believe this was just that a few months ago. It seems like a long time ago at this point.
Sara Kari
Okay, so early 2018, the San Francisco mayor's race kicked off.
London Breed
And when it really kicked into gear, there were three leading candidates.
Latif Nasser
You had, hi, I'm Board of Supervisors President London Breed.
London Breed
London Breed. And you had, hello, I'm Mark Leno. Former San Francisco Supervisor, Mark Leno.
Latif Nasser
And you had, hi, I'm Jane Kim.
London Breed
A current supervisor, Jane Kim. And these are all Democrats.
Latif Nasser
The field of candidates is set now. KPI x5. Joe Vasquez is 5.
Sara Kari
Okay, so out of the gate, new.
Latif Nasser
Front runner in the San Francisco mayor's.
London Breed
Race, and it's London Breed.
Robert Krulwich
This campaign is a winning campaign.
Sara Kari
She was the more moderate, more established candidate.
London Breed
She's getting one heck of a bounce in the polls. And she had a fairly strong lead and a lot of wind in her sales.
Robert Krulwich
A 2 to 1 leap over her.
London Breed
Two closest rivals, Lamar Glenno and Jane Kim.
Sara Kari
And as the campaign made its way.
London Breed
To election day, things were going pretty well.
Latif Nasser
We are winners.
Sara Kari
It was almost like, sure, there are three names on the back ballot, but at the end of the day, it was more like London Breed.
London Breed
London Breed and London Breed, the favorite.
Yasha Mounk
In the recent polls heading into Tuesday's election.
Sara Kari
But then, right before the election, something happened that you basically never see in American politics.
Latif Nasser
We are proud to stand together, to say that we are united in our belief that we need fundamental change here in the city and county of San Francisco.
Sara Kari
In the very last few weeks before election Day, the two underdogs, Jane Kim and Mark Leno, they held a press conference on the steps of City Hall.
Latif Nasser
Mark and I are opponents, as everyone knows.
London Breed
They stood outside City hall, literally joined hands, and Said I'm proud to be.
Latif Nasser
The first set of candidates to truly take advantage of the rank choice voting system and encourage our supporters to vote for both of us.
Yasha Mounk
Wait a second. So what she's saying is vote for me. Definitely vote for me, but also vote for this guy who I'm running against.
Sara Kari
Yeah, exactly.
London Breed
Vote for me first, but vote for Jane second. Or vote for me first and vote for Mark second.
Sara Kari
So like, if one of us were to come in last, like let's say Mark comes in last. If all the people who voted for him ranked Jane as their second choice, then all of those votes would go to her and vice versa. That way they actually have a better chance of beating the front runner, London Breed.
London Breed
And that made a lot of sense. They were both, quote, unquote, more progressive candidates and, you know, saw each other, at least the rhetoric goes, as the person that they'd like to see as mayor, if not themselves.
Latif Nasser
Was that a surprise move to you as you were covering it? Did you see that coming?
London Breed
I didn't see it coming, no. I think that was a surprise to a lot of people.
Latif Nasser
I almost had to do a double.
Sara Kari
Take when I saw these new campaign.
Latif Nasser
Posters supporting both Jane Kim and Mark Leno for mayor.
London Breed
After that press conference, Mark Leno and Jane Kim started appearing in campaign ads together.
Simon Adler
I'm Jane Kim and I'm Mark Leno.
Sara Kari
Campaigning for one another.
Latif Nasser
Mark and I are opponents, but Jane.
Simon Adler
And I agree you should pick our next mayor, not the billionaires.
Sara Kari
And so basically the whole campaign is like, if you don't vote for me first, then at least vote for me second.
Robert Krulwich
Let's stand together.
Latif Nasser
Vote for me and Mark Leno. Vote for me and Jane Kim. KPIX 5's Joe Vasquez is with the London Breed campaign, where just moments ago, Breed addressed the crowd.
Yasha Mounk
Joe.
Sara Kari
So on election night, London Breed has a pretty commanding lead as the polls are coming to a close. And basically she's trying to get up to this marker of 50% of the votes plus one vote. That's a majority. And if she can get to that, then she wins. There's no ranked choice runoff, there's no vote swapping. And as the night goes on, she.
London Breed
Is not yet declaring victory, but this crowd is celebrating.
Sara Kari
She's got like a double digit lead. Like things are looking pretty good.
London Breed
They are celebrating the person they believe.
Latif Nasser
Could be the next mayor of San Francisco.
London Breed
Holy smokes. She's beating mark Leno by 10 percentage points and she's beating Jane Kim by more than that. So we're getting to midnight, I'm completely bleary eyed staring at my laptop, refreshing the Department of Elections website every few seconds when 12:30 at night.
Sara Kari
It happens.
Latif Nasser
In the early returns. London Breed had a sizable lead, but.
Simon Adler
She didn't reach 50%.
Sara Kari
She came in just shy of 50%.
Latif Nasser
So the rank choice voting system kicked.
London Breed
In and all of a sudden this entire race has changed.
Sara Kari
Okay, so the rankings had been London Breed number one, Mark Leno, number two.
Latif Nasser
Jane Kim, who was in third place.
Simon Adler
Was now eliminated in that ranked choice system.
London Breed
But when Kim got eliminated, a huge chunk of her voters, about three out.
Latif Nasser
Of four went to Leno because Leno was their second. And now by a razor thin margin.
Yasha Mounk
Mark Leno is leading the race.
Sara Kari
The Kim Leno strategy had come to fruition.
London Breed
He's up 0.84%, the slimmest of leads.
Robert Krulwich
The mayor's race is still too close to call.
Sara Kari
The race would actually drag on for.
London Breed
Days as more ballots got counted, tens.
Robert Krulwich
Of thousands of outstanding ballots.
London Breed
We didn't have a mayor chosen until I think eight days later when.
Sara Kari
In a gymnasium packed with screaming supporters, out walked the new mayor of San Francisco, London Breed.
Simon Adler
Yes, I'm your mayor.
Sara Kari
Mark Leno came up just short.
London Breed
He came within 1.1% or a little over 2,500 votes.
Sara Kari
Oh man.
London Breed
So I mean, okay, it didn't work in that he didn't win, but you can't say that it was completely ineffective.
Sara Kari
And so ultimately what did people think of this whole like Mark Leno, Jane Kim coming together?
London Breed
People saw the dual endorsement strategy as gaming the system, as saying, look, they are doing this in order to keep London Breed from winning and that they are your paper.
Sara Kari
Right? That was the editorial board.
London Breed
Yeah, our editorial board said as much. You know, and I think that's not just the Ed board. I mean people do feel that way, that it was this strategy, you know, especially London Breed supporters who saw, who saw a teaming up, a piling on and you know, in this, I mean just to kind of just very quickly just zoom out all the way. I think people just find that weird in a country in which politics ends up being a zero sum game, oftentimes in which you are, you know, relentlessly attacking your opponent, beating them down. Yeah, exactly, exactly. But at the same time that's very much. There might be some people at my own newspaper that disagree with me, but I think that's very much in the spirit of what ranked choice voting invites, coalition building.
Sara Kari
Now, Dominic wanted to be clear that in the case of the mayor's race, this coming together of opponents.
London Breed
I don't want to make it sound like it was just some kind of Kumbaya thing because that wasn't the case.
Sara Kari
But at the very next stop on our tour, we actually found that case, the Kumbaya case. Hey, Curtis, are you there?
Robert Krulwich
Yeah, I am.
Sara Kari
Which also on the line we have Latif.
Latif Nasser
Hi, how you doing?
Robert Krulwich
Hey, what's up?
Sara Kari
We heard about from this guy, Curtis.
Robert Krulwich
Gilbert, and I'm a reporter at American Public Media, but I used to be a reporter at Minnesota Public Radio.
Sara Kari
So Curtis told us in Minneapolis they actually started using ranked choice voting in.
Robert Krulwich
2009, but it's gotten much more interesting since then. So in 2013 was the first time Minneapolis actually had like a competitive mayors race. Under ranked choice voting, there's a record.
Simon Adler
Breaking number of candidates vying to succeed Minneapolis Mayor R.T. ryback, who's stepping down at the end of this year.
Robert Krulwich
35 candidates signed up to run to replace him.
Sara Kari
Oh, wow.
Latif Nasser
Oh yeah.
Simon Adler
Curtis Gillberg covers Minneapolis politics.
Latif Nasser
He joins me in studio.
Simon Adler
Boy, you're going to be busy.
Robert Krulwich
Yeah, you betcha. I mean there were so many, I mean, 35 candidates is a lot unlike.
Sara Kari
The race in San Francisco, the mayoral race in Minneapolis, people say, aren't you the Republican did have more diverse candidates.
Latif Nasser
And I say, sure, I've done some work in the Republican Party. And I also stand fiercely for marriage equality. Always have.
Sara Kari
There was a Republican, an independent, a bunch of Democrats.
Robert Krulwich
It was a wide open, free for all race. And it was really, it was really interesting that despite all that, they were very, very civil. Thank you very much. It's nice to see you're not utterly infallible. I always thought you were very, very gentle to each other.
Latif Nasser
We won't be rude with each other.
Maureen O'Sullivan
Because it doesn't benefit us to be.
Sara Kari
Rude with each other.
Latif Nasser
Right.
Robert Krulwich
And this is one thing that, you know, the advocates of ranked choice voting sort of look at as a positive. You know, voters don't. Voters are turned off by negative campaign. And there's a theory that goes that if you're hoping to get like second and third choice votes, you'll be much nicer to your opponent so you don't alienate their supporters. So maybe you get a second or third choice vote. And it did seem like there was an element of that playing out in the race. I will talk more about the issues because I think I've run out of time.
Latif Nasser
Thank you.
Sara Kari
So at worst there was like some light ribbing.
Robert Krulwich
They said we could finish our sentences if we run out of time. But I think that was a run on sentence.
Sara Kari
There were polite stage logistics.
Latif Nasser
Getting out of that chair is a little challenging. So we may want to pass the.
Sara Kari
Microphone around and thank you.
Robert Krulwich
Thank you, Jackie.
Sara Kari
Plenty of thank yous.
Robert Krulwich
I mean, the most remarkable one of all was the final debate. Don Sam Singers I was there and it was in a church, I think it was in downtown Minneapolis. I can't remember what the church was. And at the end of the debate, the candidates, and I think there were eight of them, all kind of put their arms around each other and one of them suggested that they all sing. But I was created in my high school.
Sara Kari
No, after the debate, after the debate.
John Favreau
That'S going on Instagram.
Latif Nasser
So it's like, I mean, it's almost like a cartoon. Right? Like the Kumbaya. It's really funny. Right. But it's also, it's, it's also, I think for a lot of people right now that feels like a relief. It feels like a relief to hear politicians not biting each other's heads off. And that's, that's something that comes from ranked choice voting. You find consensus, you find coalition, you find commonalities instead of differences. But that also flattens everyone out if everyone ends up running to the middle. And then you just have kind of a bland consensus where no one's saying bold things and everybody is just kind of middle.
Yasha Mounk
So in a way, when you make this choice, you're choosing for. Do this carefully.
Latif Nasser
Do this carefully.
Yasha Mounk
Now I wondered about that because I was thinking maybe don't do this carefully. Maybe have a country that can be dynamic. Although right now I'm not so sure.
Latif Nasser
Not too dynamic.
Yasha Mounk
Yeah, but that is in a deep way, that's what's being asked here.
Latif Nasser
Yeah, like what do we actually want? Like, do we want a system where, you know, you are lined up behind your alpha dog who's gonna, who's going to argue for all of the things you want and maybe you're going to get them, but maybe you're also going to lose them all? Or do you want to be in a system where we're all begrudgingly bought into our second place person who we can kind of get behind, but it definitely wasn't our, it's not our ideal. And I think that's a question that's like a soul searching kind of a question. Like, what do you want? And what do we want this country to be? And for that reason, like, I don't know how I feel about it.
Yasha Mounk
Well, nothing's gonna be perfect. I think what's really interesting is what seems sort of mechanical and technical. It does affect the tone of your country and of history. So the world we've got is the function of how we vote. Now change the system of how we vote, you might get a very different world. How different? What different? Where different? Which kind of different? Scary different? Good different? You don't know?
Sara Kari
Well, we might actually know soon because I actually have one more stop on our cross country ranked choice voting tour. Grand state of Maine, the great state of Maine. Super politically diverse, fiercely independent, like a lot of independent voters.
John Favreau
Maine, Maine, Maine.
Sara Kari
And in fact, in 2016, there was this coalition of independents and Democrats that managed to get this ballot initiative that would change all statewide elections to ranked choice voting.
Latif Nasser
Statewide.
Sara Kari
Yeah.
London Breed
And ranked choice voting was adopted in 2016.
Sara Kari
According to Maine Public Radio reporter Steve Missler. It passed.
London Breed
It passed, however, with a major flaw.
Maureen O'Sullivan
It's a scam.
Latif Nasser
It undermines the integrity of our election process.
London Breed
The state senate, which was under Republican control at the time, picked up on this constitutional conflict within a conflict within the state constitution.
Latif Nasser
Reality is, we're not happy with it.
Ab Philbin Bowman
Blatantly opposed to it.
Sara Kari
Very unconstitutional. The Maine constitution literally says you have to use a plurality vote.
London Breed
The word plurality is actually written in.
Sara Kari
The constitution as opposed to a majority.
London Breed
Correct. And ultimately the Maine legislature passed a law that delayed implementing ranked choice voting. This is one more example of where.
Sara Kari
Politicians are standing against the will of the people. And it set off this whole fight where people rallied against the state legislature and held another vote in June, Literally.
Robert Krulwich
This past June, people gathered at the state House.
Sara Kari
This to get around the delay through.
Robert Krulwich
What was billed as a people's veto.
London Breed
That passed by almost the exact same margin, if not slightly more than when it passed originally in 2016.
Sara Kari
At some point, the main Supreme Court gets involved. And really the details of this are all kind of a mess. But what it boils down to is this. In the upcoming elections, like the midterms that are happening now, Maine will use ranked choice voting for its congressional races.
London Breed
We have three of them this year. We have a first Congressional district race. It'll be used in that contest.
Sara Kari
And also in Maine's 2nd congressional district.
London Breed
Which is a swing seat, one of, you know, a dozen or so nationally.
Sara Kari
AKA one of the districts that everybody's going to be watching in the midterms. And on top of that, they're going to use ranked choice voting for the.
London Breed
Senate, the U.S. senate campaign. It'll be used in that contest.
Latif Nasser
Do you know, is this the first time it's going to be used for a position in the federal government.
Sara Kari
Yeah. No other state has ever done it.
Latif Nasser
Oh, wow.
Sara Kari
But at the same time, because of their state constitution, it's not being used.
London Breed
In the gubernatorial race.
Sara Kari
So does the ballot just, like, look insane? Like, part of it is like this ranked choice voting thing and part of it isn't they're just separate.
London Breed
So there's separate ballots for the federal races and then there's a separate one for the statewide one. So I haven't actually seen how many ballots that voters are handed.
Latif Nasser
So this is really going to happen now, like this week?
Sara Kari
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
London Breed
Two main claims of ranked choice voting are being put to the test in the very first. In its very first rollout in Maine.
Latif Nasser
Voters in Maine will head to the.
London Breed
Polls later this month whether it can work for third party or independent candidates. But it's also a test case about whether or not it does what it promises.
Robert Krulwich
He just told another big fib right in front of everybody.
London Breed
You're lying about my. Which is reduce scorched earth campaigns.
Latif Nasser
This is why we're getting nothing done. When they go low, we kick. Mr. DeSantis lied 21 times.
London Breed
You voted. As much as you've gone wacko.
Simon Adler
Trump supporters into a mask.
Latif Nasser
You may not understand how the House and the Senate work.
Sara Kari
But also, I guess I just wonder if the people of Maine are going to come out of this election feeling a little bit more like democracy is working for them.
Yasha Mounk
Wouldn't it be interesting if in Maine somebody who was, you know, everybody's eighth choice gets elected to Congress? It could happen. I don't know.
Latif Nasser
We'll see. Now, of course, since we first aired this in 2018, that election in Maine did happen. And while, no, everyone's eighth place choice was not elected in the second congressional race, something interesting did happen. Jared Golden, a Democrat, was losing after the first count to the Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin, but ended up winning after the transfers were allocated. So the person who would have lost in the traditional count ended up winning outside of Maine, Ranked choice is now being used in municipal elections all over the country. From Las Cruces, New Mexico, where they elect their mayor, city council and judges with it to now New York City, which uses it in mayoral primaries and city council elections. But here's the biggest news of all since since 2022, Alaska has been using it to elect its governor, its state legislature, its representatives in the House and the Senate, and will even be using it in the presidential election this year. So keep your eyes out. By the time we replay this episode again, if you are not already, it is very possible you too will be ranking your choices. We'll be back next week with a brand new election episode.
Yasha Mounk
Until then, this Radio lab was reported by Latif Nasser, Simon Adler, Suzy Lechtenberg, Sarakari, Tracy Hunt produced by Simon Adler, Matt, Kilty Sarkari and Susie Leichtenberg. Our story on PRSTV was produced with support from RTE's Drive Time. Huge thank you to them and to Abe for making that possible.
Latif Nasser
Also thanks to Rob Ritchie at FairVote. Don sorry, Diana Lagerman. Thank you to Anna Lerman and the rest of the team at the Varieties of Democracy Institute in Sweden, as well as Carolyn Tolbert, Bobby Agee and Edward Still.
Yasha Mounk
I'm Robert Krulwich.
Latif Nasser
And I'm Latif Nasser. And thanks for listening and go vote. What the hell, right? Yes.
Yasha Mounk
Yes.
Latif Nasser
Yeah.
London Breed
Hi, I'm David and I'm from Baltimore, Maryland.
Robert Krulwich
Radiolab was created by Jad Abumrad and is edited by Soren Wheeler.
Latif Nasser
Lulu Miller and Latif Nasser are our co hosts.
Robert Krulwich
Dylan Keefe is our director of Sound design.
Latif Nasser
Our staff includes Simon Adler, Jeremy Bloom, Becca Bressler, W. Harry Fortuna, David Gable, Maria Paz, Gutierrez, Sindhu Nyanam Sambandan, Matt Kielty, Annie McEwen, Rebecca Lacks, Alex Neeson, Sara Khari, Sarah Sandbach, Arianne Wack, Pat Walters and Molly Webster. Our fact checkers are Diane Kelly, Emily.
Robert Krulwich
Krieger and Natalie Middleton.
Latif Nasser
Hi, this is Ellie from Cleveland, Ohio. Leadership support for Radiolab science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Morgan Foundation Science Sandbox Assignments Foundation Initiative and the John Templeton Foundation.
Robert Krulwich
Foundational support for Radiolab was provided by.
Latif Nasser
The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. On Notes from America, we have conversations.
Yasha Mounk
With people across the country about how we can truly become the nation that we claim to be. Each week we talk about race, are.
Latif Nasser
Politics, education, relationships, usually all of them, because everything's connected.
Yasha Mounk
And you, our listeners, are at the center of those conversations.
Latif Nasser
I'm Kai Wright.
London Breed
Join me on Notes from America.
Yasha Mounk
Wherever you get your podcasts.
Podcast Information:
In the episode "Tweak the Vote," Latif Nasser introduces the concept of altering voting systems to rejuvenate American democracy. He reflects on the episode's original release six years prior, emphasizing how the landscape of voting and elections has dramatically shifted since then. (01:03)
John Favreau discusses his academic focus on the resurgence of far-right, ultra-nationalist parties in Europe and the United States. He shares a personal connection, noting his family's history of suffering under authoritarian regimes, which fuels his concern about democratic institutions being undermined. (03:00 - 06:36)
Yasha Mounk and John Favreau delve into findings from the World Values Survey, revealing a troubling decline in the importance placed on democracy, especially among younger generations. They examine key survey questions that reflect increasing support for strongman leaders who bypass traditional democratic processes.
"Every six years you elect the senator over again... the system has built in it. But the whole thing admits that there's always change and always the ability to change." – Yasha Mounk (11:05)
Robert Krulwich introduces multi-seat proportional representation by single transferable vote (PR-STV), explaining how it allows voters to rank candidates by preference, ensuring more representative outcomes and reducing wasted votes. (16:47 - 33:30)
The episode narrates the 2016 election in Dublin Central, focusing on candidates Maureen O'Sullivan and Gary Gannon. Through multiple counts, votes are redistributed based on voter preferences, illustrating the mechanics and impact of PR-STV.
"Everybody got their say, and everybody got their vote. Don't get me wrong when I say, like, it did hurt, but... single transferable vote... worked out perfectly." – Gary Gannon (41:44)
Latif Nasser speculates how RCV could have altered significant U.S. elections, such as:
2000 Presidential Election: Could have mitigated the spoiler effect of Ralph Nader, potentially changing the outcome between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
2016 Presidential Election: Might have influenced dynamics between Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.
Notable Quote:
"If you have a candidate on there you really, really don't like... you're ranking your preferences." – Latif Nasser (24:34)
Yasha Mounk:
"Change the system of how we vote, you might get a very different world." – Yasha Mounk (67:04)
The San Francisco 2018 mayoral race is examined, where London Breed, Mark Leno, and Jane Kim competed under RCV. A strategic alliance between Leno and Kim aimed to maximize vote transfers, illustrating both the strengths and complexities of the system.
"We are trying to fix democracy in this hour in little bits and pieces." – Robert Krulwich (47:43)
The Minneapolis mayoral race with 35 candidates showcased RCV's capacity to handle crowded fields while fostering a more civil and consensus-driven election atmosphere.
"Advocates of RCV look at it as a positive, voters aren't turned off by negative campaigns..." – Robert Krulwich (62:49)
Maine's implementation of RCV for congressional races is discussed, highlighting legal challenges and the system's potential to enhance representation by incorporating third-party and independent candidates.
"The world we've got is the function of how we vote. Now change the system of how we vote, you might get a very different world." – Yasha Mounk (67:04)
Voter Complexity: Some voters may find ranking candidates cumbersome.
Delayed Results: The vote-counting process can be slower compared to traditional methods.
Potential for Strategic Voting: Voters might game the system to influence outcomes beyond their top preferences.
Notable Quote:
"Nothing's gonna be perfect. I think what's really interesting is what seems sort of mechanical and technical. It does affect the tone of your country and of history." – Yasha Mounk (65:41)
"Tweak the Vote" explores the transformative potential of ranked-choice voting in enhancing democratic processes. By examining real-world implementations and their outcomes, Radiolab highlights both the promise and the complexities of adopting alternative voting systems. The episode invites listeners to reflect on how voting mechanisms shape political landscapes and to consider whether RCV could address contemporary democratic challenges.
"We are trying to fix democracy in this hour in little bits and pieces." – Robert Krulwich (47:43)
Yasha Mounk (11:05):
"The adventure of democracy is that it admits that nothing is ever right. We always have to fix it."
Gary Gannon (41:44):
"Everybody got their say, and everybody got their vote... single transferable vote... worked out perfectly."
Yasha Mounk (67:04):
"Change the system of how we vote, you might get a very different world."
Latif Nasser (24:34):
"They're ranking your preferences. It's very simple."
Robert Krulwich (47:43):
"We are trying to fix democracy in this hour in little bits and pieces."
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the "Tweak the Vote" episode, outlining the key discussions on ranked-choice voting, its implications, and real-world applications, enriched with notable quotes and clear sectioning for enhanced readability.