← Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Did Trump Just Give Iran the Win on a Silver Platter?
00:25:39
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what goes up must come down. Except when it comes to gas prices. The price tends to rocket up very quickly at the pump, as when crude oil prices go up, but gasoline prices tend to take a little bit longer to go down in many cases.
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This week on Explain It To Me why gas and everything else is so expensive these days. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
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Where does President Trump's speech leave us with regard to where the war is headed? And it really was, to me, the story of the commander in chief who, weeks into this war is deeply uncertain about how it ends. I'm John Finer, co host of the Long Game podcast. This week, Jake Sullivan and I break down the President's speech and discuss what it's like to negotiate with the Iranians. We will also debate whether Iran should accept a deal. The episode is out now. Search and follow the Long Game wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.
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And I'm Jessica Tarlev.
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If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all political news. All right, let's bust into it. The US And Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan just before Trump's strike deadline, but it already looks somewhat tenuous, with both sides claiming victory. Says it'll keep the Strait of Hormuz open during talks, though reports suggest it may charge a fee for passage. Shipping is only slowly picking back up, with many vessels still stranded. Israel has backed the deal but is continuing major strikes in Lebanon, while drone and missile activity across the Gulf and even a hit on an Iranian refinery highlight how fragile the pause really is. Markets have surged on the news, but the real question is whether this is a path to peace or just a brief pause before escalation. Here's Secretary Hecsett this morning speaking after the ceasefire was announced. Our troops, our American warriors, deserve the credit for this day, but God deserves all the glory. Tens of thousands of Sorties, refuelings and strikes carried out under the protection of divine providence. A massive effort with miraculous protection. Dude44 Bravo spoke for all of us. God is good. Jess, does this define the term ceasefire in this context? Do you think this is actually a ceasefire?
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No, it. It's absolutely not a ceasefire, judging by the fact that the war is continuing basically the same that it was before this happened. So it wasn't power plant day, it wasn't bridge day, it wasn't end of civilization day, it was shit the bed day. And Donald Trump agreed to the Iranian 10 point plan. This is like if we had taken, which I know part of Trump wants to do, but Putin's plan that he continues to put forward, where he says, oh, I've jazzed it up, I've changed some things. And then he hands over the same plan, which basically says I get to own Ukraine. The Iranian plan is we get to own everything the same. Now they have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. And you said that there's talk of a fee being charged. There are two versions. One is that they get 2 million per tanker and they'll split that with the Omanis. The second option, which the FT just broke this story, is that they get a dollar a barrel paid in cryptocurrency, the favored currency of our corrupt president and his family. I can't believe this. They didn't get anything that we wanted. Nothing at all. And you can see the reaction from folks who had been enthusiastic about this war, like Mark Levin is apoplectic, right? I mean, I think a lot of people who consume conservative media didn't even believe that it was possible that we had taken the terms the Iranians gave and went with it. Except for the fact that Fox and Friends played it this morning. Mark Levin puts on the Internet for everyone to see. This is a disaster. The Israelis are beside themselves about this. I mean, people like Eric Erickson, who's a conservative commentator, very powerful, he's from Georgia, he has a lot of listeners actually across the spectrum that listen. And he said everyone was divided when we went into this, which I think is kind of normal, but everyone is unified in feeling that this was a waste of our time and our, our resources. I think this is a worst case scenario situation, at least for the ceasefire. And it gives them two weeks to get whatever they need from the Russians and the Chinese so that they can go right back at it. Because the Iranians were fine with what was going on. I mean, they controlled the Strait and we were wasting tons of munitions on them. And they seemed to be continuing to rebuild. I mean, they were firing more missiles on a daily basis than when it started. So that was a bit of a word vomit on it, but this is not good.
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Yeah, it feels as if we're in the midst of what can rationally be called this great alignment realignment. Excuse me. And that is typically, if we were at war with Iran, even if our allies didn't feel that it was the best decision, they would have backed us. They would have backed us militarily with intelligence, and at a minimum, they wouldn't have gone around us to start cutting deals with Iran. This isn't a ceasefire. This is a two week regrouping for the IRGC to continue to cut deals with not only its allies, but with former allies, the United States. The two most significant things that happened in the Strait of Hormuz in the last 72 hours is that a French frigate cargo ship and a Japanese LNG container ship were both allowed to pass safely through the Strait. So now our allies are cutting deals around us with Iran directly. And if they're able. France has said this is a new reality. The US lost, Iran discovered increasing leverage through control of the Strait, and we're just going to deal with them directly and put up with it and pay the $2 million or whatever it was paid. And by some accounts, JP Morgan is saying that that would increase revenues to Iran by some $90 billion. And then you look at somewhere between an additional 20 to 50 billion a year in oil revenues because of the spike in oil prices. And then you look at the sanctions being lifted. In sum, it looks like we're declaring defeat and leaving. And that is Iran will have the capital to rebuild its cache of weapons and ability to wreak havoc pretty crisply. You know, the Trump administration is obsessed with the nuclear material or the ability to enrich uranium, which supposedly we had devastated just a few weeks ago or a couple months ago. Now that's an imminent threat. And the reality as well, the nuclear detonation would be a lot more cinematic and frightening on a lot of levels. They've discovered a weapon more powerful than a nuclear bomb, and that is they can bring the global economy to its knees. And they, they're the ones with their hands around the windpipe of this choke point. And the US doesn't seem to be able to outline a discernible plan for opening the Strait other than to threaten. And leadership is about making promises, not threats. I don't think anyone was that really that worried about the quote, unquote Armageddon apocalypse that Trump was threatening. So now what do you have? You have this incredible realignment where there's China and Russia. These nations are afraid of China because it's so dominant. They obviously see Russia as a rogue actor. They see the US as powerful but unpredictable. And there's sort of a third party emerging, and that is Japan, South Korea, the eu, Brazil, and these nations are saying, okay, drunk uncle is just no longer reliable. We're going to cut our own deals. And what we're about to see is this massive pivot in power. For me, it all comes down to money over the long term. That's the currency of power in a global economy. And we've gone from being the operating system of two thirds of the world's economy. And Iran is taking a two week respite to realign that third that was up for grabs. Think of them as moderate voters. And France and Japan just voted with Iran. So we're in the midst of becoming the minority vote here, the minority party. Whereas we used to control the majority. France, Japan would never have thought of going around us to a deal with Iran. So we're in, in the midst of something more significant. I think in two weeks, Iran says, nope, we control the strait. Deal with us directly or try and get insurance when you don't have official sanction for passage from Iran and Oman. And we have a new world order in two weeks. And no matter how many times Hexeth invokes Jesus or divine intervention, we're now the crazy fucking theocracy. Iran is going to the U.N. iran is having diplomatic talks with France and Japan and we're invoking divinity and divine intervention and being alienated by our allies. We are, we are now more like Iran than Iran is like Iran.
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I mean, putting aside, hopefully there are no protesters or killings in the streets that happened beyond what we saw in Minneapolis. Tragically. I think you're spot on there. And I'm thinking back to how the Canadians and the French went right to the Chinese when we did Liberation Day and started with our insane tariffs, where they said, okay, we'll find a workaround because, like, you're not a reliable partner. And it's interesting because a lot of Trump's biggest supporters, when it came to his foreign policy, said that this madman thing was a strength, right? That his unpredictability, that he might be someone just wild enough right to do X, Y or Z things I'm not sure about wipe out an entire civilization with 90 million people there. But in general, the loose cannon Thing was something that people thought was a strength. Iran called our bluff to a degree that I don't think people even believe that he's a madman anymore. I think they just think that he's weak and that you control him on social media however you want. I mean, what the Iranians, you know, from every embassy across the globe have doing in creating these AI slop videos where they pick up every single meme and narrative and criticism that exists of this, of this administration, then put it into these videos that, you know, the administration, our administration is consuming and getting upset about, I think has been an incredibly important tool for them because they have reshaped the narrative as a result. And they have turned a lot of people who were maybe skeptical or maybe not the biggest supporters, but took a chance on Trump in 2024, let's say, or bought into the idea that Iran is this existential threat to us, that you can't have a nuclear Iran. And now they're looking at it and saying we're just a laughingstock. And a laughingstock that's standing up there saying constantly that this is, you know, divine providence, that all of this is happening. And I. I don't know who the adults in the room are anymore. Apparently, J.D. vance, live from Hungary, where he's out there campaigning for Viktor Orban, was a key player in these negotiations. And I thought the fact that he was involved in it signified something important about his role. But I can see that maybe he becomes the fall guy for this, like, over the course of the next couple of days, if the criticisms mount to the level, I imagine that they will, that the ceasefire is not ceasing anything. Right. So the war is continuing, except we're just paying more to the Iranians for the tankers to get through. Like you said, had the global trade order gone without us, France and Japan, etc, and then does Trump just turn around and say, jd, this is. This is your fault? I'm not sure. And there was this. Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan have a book coming out in June, and they dropped an excerpt of it yesterday. And it's about this meeting that took place before we started the strikes, where BB was actually in the Situation Room. I'm not sure if you saw it, but you have everybody in the administration except for Hegseth and Trump on record saying, we think that this is a disaster. Ratcliffe says it's farcical, the idea that we could go in and accomplish the set of goals that BB was feeding Trump, that we would be able to. And so I Don't know if heads are going to roll within our own admin because of this, but it seems like mistakes were made at every turn.
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Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.
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Hey, whatcha doin'? Are you doomscrolling other people's vacations? Miami, San Diego. With Expedia, your trip can earn rewards which you can use towards your next eligible stay. Soon people will doomscroll you. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Terms apply. It's today explained President Trump has not made a coherent case for his war in Iran. And last night he said he's not ending it yet.
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We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.
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His ally, Tucker Carlson has been making a very coherent case against the war
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because it doesn't serve American interests in any conceivable way. And, and let, let me just say that if it does in some way serve the interests of the United States, I'd love to hear it. I haven't heard.
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On Tuesday, we asked Carlson about his break with Trump and about how the Trump coalition is splintering as some young conservatives abandon the president and embrace something darker.
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It becomes like all of a sudden, like, hey, you kids, why you listen to Elvis Presley and that rock music is bad? Like, all of a sudden Fuentes controls the conversation and becomes the cool kid and the net effect is to make the Holocaust a joke.
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Today explained every weekday wherever you get your podcasts.
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For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016, I've had a front row seat. I am officially running for President of the United States. It's going to be only America First. America first. Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed
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the U.S. capitol building.
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But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm gonna ask in our new show from vox.
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The idea of like a post Trump or not exactly Trump focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items. It really does feel like so reactive.
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You know, I think this Iran thing is also gonna cause a big split in the gop. So far it doesn't among, like, people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump, but like, for the first time, you see on a major issue, open opposition from the start of this war. I'm Estet Herndon and welcome to America. Actually, welcome back. This will go down as one of the greatest blunders, intelligence blunders. To not recognize their ability to basically wrap their hands around the global, the esophagus or the windpipe of the global economy. That's just an unbelievable intelligence failure. And to not secure the Strait of Hormuz before we started this action and to not secure at least some sort of tacit agreement or cooperation from Gulf and European allies along the lines of, please do not do business with Iran when we are in the midst, and when we are in the midst of a war with them. We used to be allies, let's see if we can be allies again. But when you threaten to invade one of their NATO members, they have a tendency to say, sorry, boss, that alliance thing is now kind of small caps. It's just, it's just striking how incompetent and how poorly laid out this is and that we are effectively. I mean, this is just such an erosion in the power of the United States globally. Let's unpack the truth. Just some of the details of what was supposed to be. Excuse me. The ceasefire, the core swap is that the US would suspend strikes in Iran in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Talks began Friday in Islamabad. And if you want to know how far the US has fallen, the grownup in the room is now fucking Pakistan. That's who needs to deal with us and try. And that's who's playing diplomat here. Pakistan. And Vance will likely lead a U.S. delegation. Both sides are claiming victory. Trump says the U.S. met and exceeded all military objectives. Iran's Supreme National Security Council called it an enduring defeat for Washington. I think that's accurate. And said it's ten point plan was accepted as the basis for talks. As you noted, the 10 points include U.S. forces out of all regional bases, all sanctions lifted, full war damages paid, and Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz. The US 15 point counter demand, no enrichment, handover of enriched uranium, dismantling of proxies. These plans are direct contradictions. And then Trump finally called Iran's proposal workable, then called it fraudulent. Oh, what do you know? We don't know what the fuck to expect from this clown. After a Farsi version suggested Iran could keep enriching. Already a bad sign. And just hours after the quote unquote ceasefire, Iran's Levon island oil refinery was hit. The source is unknown. The IDF says It wasn't involved. U.S. centcom didn't respond. The UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain all reported incoming Iranian missiles and drone barrages. After the truce took effect, Kuwait said 28 drones targeted oil facilities and power stations. Iran claims they were retaliatory for the Levant strike. Vance called it a fragile truce. The ROGC said it is its finger on the trigger. And Lloyds of London warn that trade into the Gulf is highly unlikely to simply resume because none of the underlying tensions are resolved. And the reason why we care what Lloyds of London thinks is there actually hasn't been a ton of military activity in the Strait. The thing that is essentially blocking it is that no one wants to ensure these vessels carrying tens or sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars worth of materials, which effectively clogs up the Strait of Hormuz. The silver lining, if there is one. The markets rallied on the ceasefire. My guess is we're going to find out. Activity went crazy before the announcement. Crude futures fell from about $110 to $90 overnight. The S&P was up 3%. Airlines, Delta, United, America were all up more than 10%. Premarket gold was up 2%. Premarket Bitcoin spiked around 7%. I would predict or speculate. Don't trade on this. Then in another two weeks, when we realized the truce, with nothing but a manufactured pause such that Iran could continue to establish alliances with our former closing the Strait to their enemies, that is the US and its allies, I think we're going to see another nosedive in the market. And again, more options activity. According to Kalstry, the chance that Trump is impeached and removed hit an all time high of 27%. So we're somewhere between, according to the wisdom of crowds, we're somewhere between a quarter and a third likelihood that Trump is impeached and removed from office. I mean, I've never heard so many people talk about the 25th Amendment, but then they forget that his cabinet is just as batshit fucking crazy. The spike was immediate or occurred after Trump's truth social post about ending Iranian civilization and is now up to 28% this morning.
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We've been down this road before with Republican criticism of Trump, especially from the kind of wonky America first wing. You know, seeing Alex Jones and Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson and those types jumping on this Trump has got to go bandwagon. It's, you know, fun for clicks and things like that. I'm not sure how much it really means. But what I do know is happening. And you're seeing this because last night, obviously this is the lead story and then the second biggest story, least in my algorithm is how well Democrats did in elections all across the country again. And this has been the narrative on every special election and election night that we've had since Trump got reelected. And so there is clearly a lot of energy behind an opposition to the Republicans. I don't want to say that it's about love for the Democrats, because I think our approval rating is still like 28% or something completely dismal. But people are clocking what's going on here, and they know that every decision that he's making is then leading to their life being more unaffordable. And the tweet or truth social about ending civilization is a stark reminder of all the things that Hillary Clinton said in 2015 and 2016 about him and that so much ink was spilled on that. This is a crazy guy. Like, we made a madman the President of the United States of America. And what's going on now. It took 10 years, but the world is figuring out how to deal with him, and they're figuring out how to deal with him in a way that cuts us out of alliances and global trade and all the things that really matter for us to be a thriving democracy and country going forward. And I know that the time will come when Trump is gone, and I'm worried about who's going to still be with us in a genuine way. People will. Will work with us because they have to. But I think that we are really scrambling the program, or whatever the right way is to say this about how the world sees us and thinks of us in terms of a. A real viable partner. And I think that's really sad.
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I think this is really just a fairly, if you think about it, a fairly obvious data point and a consistent pattern across Trump and the way he deals with organizations. And it can be summarized in one word, bankruptcy. And bankruptcy is effectively, you overestimate your strength and your ability to create value, and you spend or allocate resources against that expectation, that arrogance, that belief that you will create more value or have more leverage than you actually have. And then after expending these resources, you find that your value and your leverage do not justify the resources spent, and you have to declare bankruptcy. He has done this over and over and over. And when you are spending a quarter of a trillion dollars on munitions and bombs that result in a weakening of your economic power, and you explode the deficit and then go back and ask for another 1 1/2 trillion dollars, a $400 billion increase in the budget. Simply put, Donald Trump is in the midst, or now the fifth or sixth inning of bankrupting the United States. We come out of this much more deeply in debt, a total erosion in our credibility and ability to do business outflows of both human and financial capital. Last year was the first year since the Great Depression that the US had net negative immigration. This is a consistent pattern of overestimating your leverage and the value you are creating, spending against that arrogance and then ultimately having to declare bankruptcy. We are going broke in terms of goodwill, in terms of alliances, in terms of trading leverage and also hard cash, trying to spend for all of this while cutting taxes at the same time. And Donald Trump is used to moving on and leaving other people holding the bag. And that's what he's planning to do here.
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I don't like being made into Atlantic City, I can tell you that.
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There you go. All right, before we go, a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates now five days a week, we're now available on Substack. Subscribers get ad free episodes, live streams and a place to connect with me, Jess and the rest of the community. Plus, you'll get access to the new Raging Moderates newsletter, the Monday Rage out now. Find us at ragingmoderates.proptinemedia.com Again, that's ragingmoderates.proptineMedia.com Also, big news. We've been nominated for a Webby Award for our best news and politics podcast. And unfortunately, it's kind of clunky the site, but we need your help to bring it home. Head to vote.webbyawards.com again, that's vote.webiawards.com and cast your vote and show us some love, Jess for a second time. Was name checked by the president. If we win this award, we are going to either send it to the White House or we are going to get a cutout of Trump and do a bunch of funny memes and somehow present this award to a Trump administration official. So if you want to push back on the president, you know, vote all that good stuff. But also, please vote for us@vote.webiawards.com that's all for this episode. Thank you so much for joining us today, Sam.