Hormuz Confusion Grows — Trump Digs in on Blockade as Iran Calls the Shots

Summary

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway & Jessica Tarlov
Episode: Hormuz Confusion Grows — Trump Digs in on Blockade as Iran Calls the Shots
Date: April 17, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, hosts Jessica Tarlov and Erin Parnas dive into the escalating tensions in the Middle East, focusing on the reopening (or lack thereof) of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. They address confusion surrounding President Trump's contradictory statements and policies, discuss the shifting balance of power, and touch on issues ranging from U.S. military morale to domestic politics, economic anxieties, and the latest cabinet and legal controversies. The discussion is laced with frustration at political extremes and a call for practical, compassionate leadership.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz: Is it really open?

[01:13–03:54]

• Both Trump and Iran claim the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, with a 10-day ceasefire expected between Israel and Lebanon.
• Trump thanked Iran but is keeping blockades on Iranian ports, pending a larger deal; simultaneously, he has controversially referred to it as the "Strait of Iran."
• Erin: "He's giving Iran pallets of cash, more pallets than Obama even dreamed of." ([02:30])
• The opening is partial—only commercial vessels ‘deemed’ commercial by Iran can pass, escorted (and tolled) by the IRGC.
• Tarlov: "That's not open. That's open, but... That’s a contingent, contingent opening." ([03:54])
• Erin: "Trump is giving Iran everything it wants, in a way, calling this the Strait of Iran... Iran didn’t have full control of the Strait before the war began. Now it will..." ([03:54])

2. JCPOA Redux? U.S. and Iran's New Deal

[04:38–06:19]

• Discussion of whether new negotiations are simply a rebranding of the Obama-era JCPOA deal.
• Erin predicts a “JCPOA 2.0” with less U.S. leverage: “Iran may not have a nuclear weapon in the conventional sense, but the Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear weapon.” ([05:20])
• Iran’s leverage comes from its ability to disrupt global oil and the U.S. economy; military pressure is secondary.

3. Changing Regional & Global Dynamics

[06:19–08:52]

• Iran is more isolated in the region after aggressive acts against neighboring countries; China is helping Iran technologically (satellite surveillance).
• Jessica: “You kind of have a madman in the center of the action with the control of the Strait of Iran to boot…” ([06:19])
• Europe is stepping up its defense in the Gulf: joint naval missions announced by UK, Germany, France, and Italy.
• Erin: "Europe is realizing that it needs to be a leader in its own right...This is because Europe needs the oil..." ([08:08])

4. Military Morale & Logistics Crisis

[09:02–11:32]

• Reports from deployed U.S. troops describe low morale, inadequate provisions, and prolonged deployments.
• Erin on the situation: “Morale is at an all-time low… Families can’t send care packages… Even tampons are running out on some of these ships... Our service members are eating brown meat, mystery meat, can’t get tampons, can’t get hygiene products. I mean, it’s unacceptable.” ([09:45])
• Jessica raises the ongoing issue of women's sanitary products (“The pink tax is real. I could do a whole other episode about that.” [11:28]), to shared frustration.

5. Economic Fallout at Home: Affordability & Policy Disconnects

[11:51–14:32]

• Tax day data: average refund $3,175, but average additional $740 paid at the pump.
• Trump's dismissals of inflation and cost-of-living issues ring hollow.
• Trump quote: “What is a corner store? I’ve never heard that term. I know what a corner store is, but I’ve never heard it described a corner store. Who the hell wrote that, please?” ([12:53])
• Tarlov critiques Trump’s “fake inflation” dismissals and the optics of the ‘DoorDash Grandma’—the bigger story is that a senior citizen must take on gig work to get by.

6. Young Voters & Shifting Sentiments

[17:15–19:03]

• Younger Americans' support for Trump is dropping—the cost of living and sense of government dysfunction taking a toll.
• Erin: “America is more unaffordable today than it was when he took office. Young people see that... it’s again, a, a president, a politician who sold them this bill of goods, and they’re not actually getting anything good out of it.” ([17:45])
• Prediction that upcoming Congressional investigations will be painful for Trump.

7. Political and Legal Drama

[19:03–22:02]

• White House infighting, with rumors of physical altercations (Scott "beating up" Bill Pulte, AI-religious memes).
• Discussion of “consumer sentiment vs. actual economic reality.” Treasury insists Americans are "buoyant," but Jessica pushes back, citing the lowest sentiment on record.
• Jessica: “It has never felt as shitty for Americans as it does right now. And he’s like, well, actually, if you look inside your heart, you’ll know how good you have it.” ([20:54])

8. Health Policy: RFK Jr., Vaccines, and Cabinet Moves

[22:02–23:47]

• RFK Jr.’s congressional testimony regarding vaccines: a partial climbdown on anti-vax positions.
• Trump's nominee for CDC, Dr. Erica Schwartz—a sign the administration seeks a competent, mainstream medical leader to offset RFK Jr. liabilities.
• Erin: “They put [Cabinet secretaries] in front of Congress and are just like, let’s see how you do. They did that with Pam Bondi, like the Hunger Games.” ([23:11])

9. The Epstein Investigation and Melania's Public Relations

[24:07–26:12]

• Melania issues a statement tied to ongoing Epstein fallout—likely aimed at getting ahead of damaging associations.
• Trump’s administration appears to be shifting responsibility to Congress and using public hearings to offload pressure: “They want to throw the heat off of the Department of Justice as it relates to Epstein...” ([24:38])

10. Judicial Maneuvering: Alito’s Future and Possible Nominations

[26:55–28:35]

• Speculation: Will Trump push Justice Samuel Alito to retire and stack the Supreme Court with loyalists like Ted Cruz or Judge Aileen Cannon?
• Erin: “If I’m a Donald Trump, the one justice who’s always on my side and is so radical… I don't want to force someone like that out.”

11. NYC Politics & Pop Culture Moments

[28:36–30:59]

• NYC Mayor Zoran Mamdani’s "tear tax" proposal on luxury property and playful Mario Kart reference (“government is Yoshi, and philanthropy is the golden mushroom... Bowser is corporate greed in this scenario.” – Mayor Adams, [29:06])
• Jessica and Erin praise the visible care and engagement of younger, more "millennial-coded" leadership in the city.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Erin Parnas: "Iran may not have a nuclear weapon in the conventional sense, but the Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear weapon." [05:20]
• Jessica Tarlov: “I just. I hate everything sometimes.” [14:32] (on the ‘DoorDash Grandma’ saga)
• Jessica Tarlov: “It has never felt as shitty for Americans as it does right now.” [20:54]
• Jessica Tarlov: “The problem is that a grandma has to be doing doordash... that is the problem with America.” [13:38]
• Erin Parnas: “Morale is at an all-time low. Right. Because a lot of these service members, these aircraft carrier groups are being deployed for longer than they should be… our service members are eating brown meat…” [09:45]
• Mayor Adams: “If you are a Mario Kart fan, government is Yoshi, and philanthropy is the golden mushroom... Bowser is corporate greed in this scenario.” [29:06]

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Important Timestamps

• [01:13–03:54] — Strait of Hormuz reopening debate & Trump’s mixed messages
• [04:38–06:19] — JCPOA 2.0 and declining U.S. leverage
• [06:19–08:52] — Regional isolation for Iran & Europe’s role in Gulf security
• [09:02–11:32] — Military morale crisis, sanitary supplies, and gender disparities
• [11:51–14:32] — Economic policies, tax refunds, fuel prices, “DoorDash Grandma,” and Trump’s detachment
• [17:15–19:03] — Young voters, affordability, upcoming investigations
• [19:03–22:02] — White House drama, “consumer sentiment,” and lived reality
• [22:02–23:47] — RFK Jr., Dr. Erica Schwartz, cabinet games
• [24:07–26:12] — Epstein fallout, Melania’s statement, and DOJ evasion
• [26:55–28:35] — Supreme Court speculation: Alito, Ted Cruz, Aileen Cannon
• [29:06] — Mario Kart metaphor from NYC’s mayor during tax policy discussion

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Tone & Takeaways

The episode is sharp, urgent, sometimes exasperated—reflecting the hosts’ frustration with political spin and dysfunction from all sides. Both Tarlov and Parnas blend policy analysis with relatable cultural commentary, showing skepticism of partisanship and performative leadership. They highlight the real-world impact of D.C. maneuvering on average Americans, especially younger and more vulnerable populations.

Listeners come away with a richer, more nuanced understanding of the current situation in the Middle East, the economic and military pressures facing the U.S., and the broader mood among voters frustrated by both the policy status quo and the spectacle of extreme politics.

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Transcript

[Host]

Breaking news. The world is a mess, and it seems like it's just getting worse. So how do you find a way to move forward?

[Erin Parnas]

Being hopeful acknowledges and embraces that things are difficult and asks, where can we go from here?

[Host]

Why? Our future depends on our ability to hope. That's this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes, wherever you get your podcasts,

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Foreign

[Jessica Tarlov]

moderates. I'm Jessica Tarleth.

[Erin Parnas]

And I'm Erin Parnas.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Happy belated birthday.

[Erin Parnas]

Thank you. So exciting.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Did you take a break from doing the breaking news?

[Erin Parnas]

No, I actually, the one thing I wanted for my birthday with the newborn now is to have, like, a normal day that's, like, not newborn heavy. So I actually worked, I went to the gym. I, like, felt like a human again. It was really nice.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Oh, that is nice. You were like, I'm not gonna be with my baby. I'm just gonna be with my phone.

[Erin Parnas]

Correct. I'm gonna be with myself. And I needed that. But it's good.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Good. I'm glad you found yourself again.

[Erin Parnas]

Thank you.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome to 27. It was so long ago, I can't remember what it was like, but I'm sure that I had a good time.

[Erin Parnas]

I'm aging. It's very. It's very scary. But here we are.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Get outta here. All right, let's talk about the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is back open to commercial traffic as of this morning. That's according to both President Trump and Iran. And it's expected to stay open through the 10 day ceasef between Israel and Lebanon. Trump even thanked Iran for reopening the strait, but at the same time made it clear that the US Isn't backing off pressure. The blockade on Iranian ports is still in effect until there's a broader deal. Notably, Trump also referred to it as the Strait of Iran. He loves to rename things. I'm not sure what the meaning is, but that's what we call it now, I guess. At the same time, there's a new political wrinkle back home. House Judiciary Democrats are launching an investigation into Jared Kushner. Congressman Jamie Raskin is raising concern about Kushner's financial ties in the Middle east, especially given his role as a peace envoy. I want to get your take first before I talk about my level of confusion as to what's going on now. But, you know, all eyes on Sunday. That's when the peace talks should resume in Islamabad. What do you make of the news of the day that the strait is open and that Trump has said there will be no money exchanged. Even though there are reports that there will be up to $20 billion exchanged for their highly enriched uranium.

[Erin Parnas]

He's giving Iran pallets of cash, more

[Jessica Tarlov]

pallets than Obama even dreamed of. Do you think that's true that. Because he does know what a salient criticism that was of the jcpoa. I mean, that was the bedrock criticism that we just handed terrorists, even though it was. Their money was 1.7 billion. It was frozen and being held in a Qatari bank. But they use that to bludgeon the Democrats with.

[Erin Parnas]

Well, for sure. But, I mean, I think he understands this time around, you can't get a deal unless Iran gets sanctions relief. I mean, that's what Iran's ultimate bottom line is. It needs money. Oil is how it gets money. It has a ton of sanctioned oil that's frozen. It has a ton of sanctioned funds that are frozen. It's not gonna agree to any deal unless you give it money. And so he's going to give Iran pallets of cash. Now, I will say Strait of Hormuz isn't open. I mean, Iran claims it's open. Right. But they have their own conditions. It's open to only commercial vessels that it deems are commercial.

[Jessica Tarlov]

And that they escort them. Right?

[Erin Parnas]

Correct. The IRGC is personally escorting them and they're paying tolls.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Okay, that was my question, because that has been missing from all of the reporting. And that was the linchpin of all of this, that they were managing to make either, you know, 2 million per vessel and split that with the Omanis or the money going into a crypto account on a per barrel basis. So we have no clarity on how much the toll actually is, just that there is a toll.

[Erin Parnas]

Yeah. Iran is saying that there's still a toll, so it's not really open. And then you can't claim it's open on Trump's end and then still have a blockade on Iranian ships. That's not open. That's open, but. Right. Like, that's a contingent, contingent opening. So I don't think it's open. I will say this, though. Trump is giving Iran everything it wants, in a way, calling this the Strait of Iran. That gives Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz implicitly. Iran didn't have full control of the Strait before the war began. Now it will, at least based on what these talks are. I don't know. Trump, to me, is just like, ranting on truth, social, doing, like, mission accomplished every two minutes of like, oh, my God, look at this great thing. And look at this great thing. But at the end of the day, like, no one knows what the hell he's talking about. I don't know.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Okay, do you. I want to get back to the JCPOA for a second, because if there is a financial aspect to this, right, the easing of the sanctions, returning the cash, and there are sunset clauses on when they can start doing highly enriched uranium again, that sounds a lot like what the JCPOA was. And if it had stayed in place, we would hopefully be renegotiating the next phase of it basically around this time. Do you think that it is just going to be JCPOA 2026 version, or do you think that there is a chance that it's going to be markedly different?

[Erin Parnas]

I don't think it'll be markedly different. I just don't think it'll be markedly better. So I do think it'll be jcpoa kind of 2.0, and then he'll just say this is his nuclear deal and that it was better than Obama's, for whatever reason he's gonna say it is. I do think, though, that, like, the United States has less leverage at this point than we did back 10 years ago, and also than we did back even six weeks ago. Because I think what the Iranians have learned, and I've said this, I think last week on our episode as well, is that Iran may not have a nuclear weapon in the conventional sense, but the Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear weapon. And if Iran shuts it down, which it did, it completely, not only tanks the global economy, but also tanks Trump's standing among the American population. And so Trump knows that very well. And right now, in my opinion, Iran has more leverage than the United States does when it comes to this negotiation. Because I don't think Iran, at the end of the day, really cares how many installations the United States bombs, as long as it's putting up a lot of pressure and pain on the American people in terms of gas prices, fuel prices and more. Right. So.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Well, there is also the element that one of the things that has happened since Trump 1.0 is that Iran has become increasingly isolated in their own region. So, you know, you would never think of a scenario in which pre Trump, Iran would be hitting Saudi, right, or going after desalination plants or oil fields or whatever they want to do. But because the Gulf countries are aligned with us now and not with them, you kind of have a madman in the center of the action with the control of the Strait of Iran to boot, which Makes them a lot more of a loose cannon than I think they would have been necessarily in the past. There's also the Chinese element. The administration is saying, you know, we talk. We talk to China, they're not helping at all. But there's been reporting first of the ft. It's been confirmed by several other outlets now, including Jennifer Griffin from Fox, that the Iranians have been using Chinese satellites to spy on us. And I'm not sure if that is included in the. China isn't helping them anymore because I think that was vis a vis actually delivering weapons that they could use versus their technology. And obviously that's a very big deal if it is continuing.

[Erin Parnas]

Oh, for sure. And I think what we're seeing is that the United States is now somewhat isolating itself on the world stage at the same time.

[Jessica Tarlov]

What do you make, though? I mean, I saw there was a joint statement from the uk, from Germany, France and Italy that they are going to send a naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz. So they're using the old name to protect freedom of navigation. And it does feel. Feel like they were waiting until this moment. Trump's out there saying, like, naito, you know, 20 minutes too late. You're just a paper tiger. But it feels like they are inching towards participation.

[Erin Parnas]

Yeah. I mean, so I think Europe is realizing that it needs to be a leader in its own right. I think that's what we're seeing more so than Europe kind of capitulating to Trump. I think Europe is realizing, okay, the United States isn't going to be there for us whenever we need the United States. Obviously, Russia's a threat, The Iranians have been a threat. The Chinese are what they are. So we need to be our own kind of leadership block. And I think that's what we're seeing. And I also think over the next many years, in the second Trump term, Europe is gonna only have to step up more to defend itself and to protect its own interests as America pulls back. So I don't necessarily think this is because of Trump. More so I think this is because Europe needs the oil and Europe is trying to get it for themselves.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Oh, I mean, that does make sense, too. And it kind of kills two birds with one stone. Right. That you can say to Trump like, we're helping out, but really it's about the fact that Europe's going to run out of jet fuel in six weeks.

[Erin Parnas]

Correct.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I was talking to a friend that flies all the time and says that Lufthansa hasn't flown in Three days they're saying that it's a pilot strike, but apparently in history they've only ever gone one day without flying before. So obviously it's hitting them very hard. I wanted to, before we move topics, talk a little bit about morale within the troops. There's this photo of the very meager meals that troops are receiving that apparently have been photo snapped and sent home to family members. Do you get a sense of how folks within the armed forces are feeling about this war and yeah, what it portends. Also, for support for the administration, I've

[Erin Parnas]

spoken to a lot of service members, specifically family members of service members who have been deployed, and they tell me the same thing as like that USA Today article. It's just morale is at an all time low. Right. Because a lot of these service members, these aircraft carrier groups are being deployed for longer than they should be. And as a result, you have things like toilets being clogged and not enough toilets for shipment. On an aircraft carrier, you have lack of provisions. Right now, they can't, a lot of families are worried because they can't send anything to the Middle East. Typically when you have a son or a daughter deployed, you can send them a care package. Right now that's been suspended indefinitely because of the war. So even if they wanted to send their daughter, for example, tampons, which they're running out of on some of these ships, they can't do that. And it's a lot of people are frustrated. Right. You have America spending over a billion dollars a year in defense spending or, sorry, more than a trillion dollars next year. More than a trillion and a half, potentially, if Congress goes along with Trump's plan. And our service members are eating brown meat, mystery meat, can't get tampons, can't get hygiene products. I mean, it's unacceptable.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It definitely is. I've seen some reports that there's going to be pushback even from the GOP on the $1.5 trillion spending bill for next year. But I imagine that there are ways around it that President Trump and his allies will get to. But it's really saddening. It's great that you've become a point of contact for people to talk about these kinds of things. I mean, just to get on my lady high horse for a second, you always hear about women's sanitary products being the first things to go in this or that. Even like women's shelters, domestic violence shelters, etc. Don't have them.

[Erin Parnas]

Right.

[Jessica Tarlov]

The pink tax is real. I could do a whole other episode about that.

[Erin Parnas]

But it's real 100%, girl, dad gotta

[Jessica Tarlov]

be thinking about those things.

[Erin Parnas]

I will say in law school, the one thing I did in student government that I ushered through was making sure that there were feminine products in every bathroom across the school for free. That was like my one thing that I did. So I've been dealing with this for a while.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I love that that's an important one thing to do. I want to talk a little bit about what's going on at home. You know, we have this war going on, and then they're still trying to sell the big beautiful bill and the economic policies. It was tax day this week. Average American got a 3, $175 refund. You will be paying $740 more at the pump, which doesn't seem like a great trade off. We had doordash Grandma. And at an event in Las Vegas, Trump waved off rising gas prices as fake inflation, despite fuel costs spiking and travel getting more expensive. The message is basically, don't believe what you're paying. I would say not to call out my own kind, but we tried that and it really failed. So I don't know why they're repeating our mistakes. All of this comes as younger voters grow more uneasy about the economy. And as Trump heads to Arizona today to rally support at a Turning Point USA event with Republicans, they are worried about the chaos drowning out their message. Here's Trump this week, not quite understanding what a corner store is of American

[Trump (quoted)]

small businesses, including restaurants, dry cleaners, corner stores. What is a corner store? I've never heard that term. I know what a corner store is, but I've never heard it described a corner store. Who the hell wrote that, please? And more.

[Jessica Tarlov]

He knows what it is, but he doesn't know what the hell that it is. And who wrote that. It's also the most obvious thing, right? It's the store on the corner.

[Erin Parnas]

Well, I mean, you wouldn't expect someone who grew up in New York and was like this, like, made man in New York City walking the streets of New York. He wouldn't know what a corner store is.

[Jessica Tarlov]

So if we had had said bodega,

[Erin Parnas]

maybe he would actually wish they wrote him bodega, because I think you get a Joe Biden 2.0 moment and he'd mispronounce bodega.

[Jessica Tarlov]

What do you think is going on here, though? I mean, he went a little off script about the doordash Grandma, admitting that it was a tacky stunt. I also don't know how we're not discussing the fact that the problem is that a grandma has to be doing doordash. Right? And this grandma who has been a prop at multiple GOP events, we should also add to that. But like that seems like the problem that a nice old lady from Arkansas whose husband has cancer cannot be at home with him as a caregiver and has to deliver McDonald's to the Oval Office. Like that is the problem with America. And seniors are the ones who are even getting the most out of the big beautiful bill besides the mega rich. Right. Because of the 6k refund on Social Security which does sunset out. And the no tax on Social Security is also a lie. We go down the list of it. But.

[Erin Parnas]

But she got $100 tip. She got a tip.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I. I just. I hate everything sometimes. Let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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[Jessica Tarlov]

We've all been there.

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[Brene Brown]

hi, I'm Brene Brown.

[Erin Parnas]

And I'm Adam Grant.

[Brene Brown]

And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop, a podcast that's a

[Erin Parnas]

place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling and questioning.

[Brene Brown]

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[Host]

And we're always learning.

[Brene Brown]

That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

[Erin Parnas]

Hey, so we're not paying taxes this year, right? Until the Pentagon passes one damn audit, we shouldn't pay any more taxes People

[Jessica Tarlov]

don't want to pay taxes anymore because they don't trust the way the government is spending and tracking our money.

[Guest Speaker]

Americans are fed up with paying taxes and. I know, I know, but hear me out. Americans are extra fed up with paying taxes lately, according to some Gallup polling and some posting. But are we being shortsighted?

I think that it's important to have a government. I think that humans tried anarchy for quite a long time and it didn't work so well. A lot of people got hit over the head with rocks. We didn't have a whole lot of economic development. Almost everyone agrees that the United States should have a military to protect it from foreign invasion, that we should have law enforcement, firefighting schools, et cetera, anti taxers.

And where this could all be heading on today explained dropping every Weekday afternoon.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome back. What's going on with younger people? There is no group, aside from Latino voters, where Trump's favorability has fallen the fastest. What do you think they're thinking about this, like, when they see stuff like this because his stunts have resonated before, like the McDonald's during the campaign, the garbage truck, etc. You know, it was like, Trump is so funny, and it seems like they don't find him so funny anymore.

[Erin Parnas]

Well, it's different when you're campaigning and saying you're going to do all these things and then you're in office and have the power to do all these things and you're not actually doing them. So I think that's the difference. Right. Like, he campaigned on affordability. America is more unaffordable today than it was when he took office. And young people see that we go to the gas pumps. We're paying $700 more in gas, right? My alma mater, GW, $100,000 a year for tuition, which I don't, which I don't know what we're paying $100,000 for. And I'm not giving money back to my school. They don't need the money. They're charging people up the wazoo, right? So, like, America is unaffordable. It's less affordable today than it was a year ago. It's less affordable today than it was two years ago. And young people are fed up and it's again, a, a president, a politician who sold them this bill of goods, and they're not actually getting anything good out of it. So I don't know what Trump expects. I mean, I don't think he cares personally because he's like, well, I'm leaving. I'm not running for reelection no matter how much he wants to. But I don't think he realizes. And, and I really hope that the Democrats kind of follow through on their threats what these investigations are going to be like for the next two years when they take over the House and the Senate, because it's going to be a painful two years for him. I don't think he realizes that.

[Host]

I, I don't know.

[Jessica Tarlov]

That was Anthony Scaramucci came on and he was saying something similar that Trump doesn't really care what happens after him because at least he can then also say like, you couldn't do it without me, basically. But living through the last two years of his administration, if Democrats, I mean, we should reclaim the House. But potentially, you know, taking the Senate back is going to be a very ugly process. I want to talk Scott, be for a second. Another report that he beat up another member of the administration. I just love how many people he punches. It was Bill Pulte. There's also reporting that Pulte was the one behind the AI generated image of him as Jesus that he then said was a doctor.

[Erin Parnas]

Oh, really?

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, which I kind of loved. I was like, all roads lead to Bill Pulte being awful. Okay, so Bessant maybe punches Bill Pulte. And then he also had to say this about affordability, which really blew my mind and I was bummed. I couldn't work it in on the five.

[Host]

Why aren't we seeing this sentiment?

[Jessica Tarlov]

Why are people feeling better?

[Guest Speaker]

Well, I, you know, I, when I was in the investment business, there are consumer surveys, but I used to look at what are the people really doing. So at treasury we have loads of CEOs come through, whether they're in retail, credit card, the banks. And the consumer, while they may be sounding grim, is actually quite buoyant. So we are seeing spending has been very solid across most categories.

[Jessica Tarlov]

So they might not feel good, but,

[Guest Speaker]

well, look in their heart of hearts, they feel good. I'm not sure what they're telling the survey people.

[Erin Parnas]

Can someone like ask him how much he pays for a gallon of milk, please? Because I don't think he even knows.

[Jessica Tarlov]

In his Barbie dream house, he's worth $500 million.

[Erin Parnas]

Like it doesn't impact him.

[Jessica Tarlov]

This is, I know, it's like the new Wilbur Ross with the Campbell's soup can. It's also crazy as the consumer sentiment data shows the lowest in recorded history. Like they just started in the 1960s. So we couldn't even go further back than that. It has never felt as shitty for Americans as it does right now. And he's like, well, actually, if you look inside your heart, you'll know how good you have it.

[Erin Parnas]

I look inside my heart every day. I don't feel like I'm paying less today. And it's great in the economy and all that jazz, so.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Well, also, nothing more expensive than a newborn baby.

[Erin Parnas]

Correct. Everything is insane. I mean, talk about such a racket.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I know. Yeah. Especially the diapers, and they go through them so fast.

[Erin Parnas]

I think diapers should be free, but that's my other hot take is that Congress should pass legislation to subsidize all diaper purchases.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I love it. I can't get Hakeem Jeffries to give us any policies, but we could run an entire mid free. Yeah, let's both hit them with that.

[Erin Parnas]

Perfect.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Free diapers would be great. I want to talk a little RFK junior. He's back on the Hill for day two. He's going to go seven days, which feels like a slow and painful death. He's already talked about issues of fraud and vaccines, other public health issues. This is also the side by side on the raccoon penis story, which we did cover on the 5. I couldn't get Besson in, but we talked about the raccoon. But in a seeming reversal, Kennedy testified that the measles vaccine was safe and effective for most people and agreed it was safer than contracting measles. So, you know, progress is slow but certain. This comes after President Trump announced he'll nominate Dr. Erica Schwartz to head the CDC, a choice who has in the past shown support for vaccines and appears to be a normal human being. My feeling on this is that the administration knows what a liability RFK Jr is, and so they're bringing in someone that can be a more competent face to the health and safety side of this and let him just talk about red dyes and yellow dyes in food and things like that that are safer for all of us. But what's your RFK read?

[Erin Parnas]

No, I actually agree with you on that front because I was looking into her and I thought that she was a normie. Like, I mean, she was like, okay, like, fine, well qualified. She'll probably be confirmed overwhelmingly. Like, I don't think unless they dig up something in her past that I couldn't find RFK Jr. I feel like what they do with these Cabinet secretaries, when they don't like them, they put them in front of Congress and they're just like, let's see how you do. They did that with Pam Bondi, like the Hunger Games? No, but literally, Pam Bondi, Dow under 50,000. She's out a couple months later, Kristi Noemi lies in front of Congress and John Kennedy out a few days later. Could RFK Jr be next? Potentially. Potentially.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Oh, I like it. Also, could I put in a request? I would like to see Pete Hegseth on the Hill. I would like more Tulsi.

[Erin Parnas]

Well, then you're going to have to work with him again.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I don't think that. Don't talk to me about that. I don't think. I don't know how the exodus works. Like, if you leave the administration, if

[Erin Parnas]

you just, if you go back, if

[Jessica Tarlov]

you come back, the seats have been filled. Want to do a little Epstein as well with you? We had the weird Melania Trump statement and now seems like that's linked to the story that Amanda Ongaro is going to tell. What is your read on kind of where that stands? And President Trump has apparently said that he's okay with the survivors having a public hearing. Do you believe that and what do you think is coming on the Melania front?

[Erin Parnas]

Of course I believe that because he's setting them up for failure. I thought Melania was setting them up for failure, too. I mean, and the survivors said this themselves. It's not their responsibility to testify in front of Congress. It's their responsibility to give information to law enforcement, which they did. Right. Like, law enforcement hasn't done the job. So what I've been saying, what I've been screaming for, like at the top of my lungs for the past week, is that this is just Todd. Blanche is newly installed as a acting attorney general. They want to throw the heat off of the Department of Justice as it relates to Epstein. And so what are they going to do? Oh, Congress, it's your responsibility now. Hold a hearing. And if you don't hold a hearing, then Blanche will say, well, we gave them the opportunity and they didn't hold a hearing. That's all that's happening here. They're setting the survivors up for failure. And I mean, Trump sets victims or whatever. I mean, he a derogatory remark about the survivors. And as far as Melania Trump thing goes, I think that she's been personally peeved about everyone talking about her connection, a valid connection to Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. You have an email, very fast, friendly email, mind you, where she wants to talk with Maxwell on the phone. I think she's upset that people keep talking about it and she just wants to do her own thing and she wants to get out in front of something that's coming out. Could be the Amanda Ungaro thing. It could be something regarding Michael Wolf. It could be something regarding Pam Bondi. I don't know. I don't think anyone really knows right now. Or it could just be Melania just being Melania and just saying, like, you know what, screw it. I'm going to come out and say my piece and move on because no one wants to hear it inside the administration. I don't know.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. I mean, I'm not even sure actually that we'll really find out. That's a good point about the survivors. And that's also coupled with Todd Blanche went on Fox earlier this week and said that all the documents were out.

[Erin Parnas]

Yeah.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Like Bill Hemmer asked him and he was like, nope, we did our job.

[Erin Parnas]

Correct.

[Jessica Tarlov]

If they put Todd Blanche up not just as interim AG but for confirmation, do you think he gets confirmed?

[Erin Parnas]

I do. Because you only need 50 votes.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I. But Thom Tillis still exists even though Trump told Maria Bartiromo he wasn't a senator anymore.

[Erin Parnas]

But, but Thom Tillis exists to a point. He'll still confirm he voted to confirm Blanche the first time around. Like nothing's changed since Blanche was first confirmed. Not like we, we knew this, who, this is who he was. And they're all going to come back to, oh, the president deserves to have whatever he wants in the Cabinet.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Well, especially if the Democrats are about to come into power and make our lives miserable. So we better do things fast.

[Erin Parnas]

Correct.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Which brings me to a question that I have wanted to ask you and meant to te about Justice Ted Cruz. Yes, Justice Ted Cruz or based Mike Lee, which I think is a complete, I think all of that is a complete joke. But do you think that they are going to force Alito out in time, try to get another nominee through before the midterms?

[Erin Parnas]

I do, but I actually don't know why they would. I have such a hard time with this. If I'm a Donald Trump, the one justice who's always on my side and is so radical to the point that, like he'll do anything I ask him to do is Alito. Alito finds a way to literally agree to with everything this administration does, even if it is a radical position. I don't want to force someone like that out. I just don't. I think Alito can survive another six years if he has to. Now, I don't know that he wants to. I think, I think he's going to retire In July. But I don't know that if I'm Trump, I want him out. But then again, like the alternative, it could be someone like Ted Cruz. I wouldn't put it past Trump to nominate Ted Cruz to the. To the Supreme Court. I don't know that he'd get confirmed,

[Jessica Tarlov]

but that feels like a bridge too far. And that also the senators know too much. Yeah, they've been dealing with him forever.

[Erin Parnas]

Sure. I would argue Kavanaugh was a bridge too far, though. Right. Like the allegations. Right, like that to me.

[Jessica Tarlov]

But they didn't know him. I mean, it is well documented that even Ted Cruz's friends don't like Ted Cruz.

[Erin Parnas]

Sure.

[Jessica Tarlov]

So. So he has also been much more biased.

[Erin Parnas]

Or what about Justice Eileen Cannon?

[Guest Speaker]

Right.

[Erin Parnas]

Like, I wouldn't put that past Trump.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Oh, our old friend from the Mar A Lago documents case in Jan.6.

[Erin Parnas]

Exactly.

[Jessica Tarlov]

She has been working overtime. I want to wrap on Mamdani. We had his, you know, first hundred days. He has a new policy for taxing the rich. A P had a tear tax on homes worth over 5 million that aren't the owner's primary residence. It's supported by 93% of New Yorkers. No one asked me. Fake polls. I don't know. But actually, this makes a lot of sense.

[Erin Parnas]

Doesn't apply to you either?

[Jessica Tarlov]

It definitely does not apply to me. But he had a bit of fun with it at the press conference. Let's look at that.

[Eric Adams (NYC Mayor)]

Philanthropy has long played an essential role in New York City as an incubator for change and as a powerful tool to expand access to city programs. I like to think of it this way. Government is driving the race car, and philanthropy is there to give it that turbo boost to cross the finish line. Or if you are a Mario Kart fan, government is Yoshi, and philanthropy is the golden mushroom. That edge we need to beat Bowser on the rainbow road. To belabor this metaphor even further, Bowser is corporate greed in this scenario.

[Erin Parnas]

I love young people in office. Like, come on.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I was about to say, he's so millennial coded, which is, like, old for you, but still.

[Erin Parnas]

Definitely old for me, but still. Still young. I mean, I feel old these days. I'm 27, so, I mean, I'm almost there. But, yeah, I like Go Go Zoran.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I think, you know, he's winning a lot of people over who were not enthusiastic about his mayoralty. And you're seeing that not only in the surveys, but just in real life. Like, I spoke at an event on Monday night with a bunch of centrist Democrats, a lot of Jews who are very concerned about what was going to happen under Mamdani's control in the city. And I was talking about how people are connecting with the fact that it's just obvious that Mamdani cares and how desperate people had been for folks in elected office who seemed like they cared about the place that they represented, but especially cared about the most vulnerable. And no one can really fight with that. You can say, you know, the free grocery store that cost $30 million and won't be out for a few years? You can pick at that stuff, of course.

[Erin Parnas]

But no, I think he's doing, I think he's doing great work. And honestly, someone else, I think that doing great work that needs to be highlighted. Jessica Tarlov has a new book out. Go pre order it right now.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Go on. That's enough.

[Erin Parnas]

September 15th. It's out. Go buy it now.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, totally. I'm excited about it.

[Erin Parnas]

Me too.

[Jessica Tarlov]

As a reminder, Raging Moderates is five days a week, new episodes dropping every weekday evening on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, everywhere else. Also, in addition to being five days a week, we're now on substack. Subscribers get ad free episodes, live streams, place to engage with me and Scott, other listeners, the whole Prof. G. Famous. Find us at raging moderate. StopProFJMedia.com Aaron, it was great to see you and I'll see you next week.

[Erin Parnas]

See you next week.

[Ad Break/Announcer]

Bye, everyone.