Raging Moderates: “Is This a Turning Point for America?” (ft. Sarah Longwell)

Scott Galloway & Jessica Tarlov | Vox Media Podcast Network | Jan 14, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Raging Moderates features Jessica Tarlov in conversation with political strategist Sarah Longwell (Bulwark publisher, host of The Focus Group podcast). The discussion centers on whether recent national events—most notably the tragic shooting of Renee Goode by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, a criminal case against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and shifting party identification—signal a critical turning point for America. The hosts analyze the state of American democracy, the erosion of public trust, the role of political moderates, and the implications for both political parties as the midterm elections approach.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Banter and Introductions (00:33–03:19)

• Jessica expresses excitement at having Sarah Longwell on the podcast, moving past the usual focus on Tim Miller (her Bulwark colleague).
• Light banter about physical appearances and past work environments.

2. The Minneapolis Shooting & National Reaction (03:19–14:59)

Event:

• The killing of Renee Goode by ICE agent Jonathan Ross in Minneapolis led to widespread protests and a fierce debate on ICE’s role, government accountability, and trust.

Key Points:

• Video Evidence & Gaslighting:
  • Real-time video contradicted official statements, especially from Vice President Kristi Noem and Trump.
  • “For me, the hard part was watching the government tell a lie in real time while we could all see that the opposite was happening.” (Sarah Longwell, 04:34)
• Partisan Rorschach Test:
  • The incident reflects deep partisan divides, with government and media responses exacerbating mistrust.
• Public Rage & Radicalization:
  • Both Tarlov and Longwell see this as “unlocking something different”—both personally and across the public.
  • “It unlocks a different level of rage than I feel like the normal lies do.” (Sarah Longwell, 06:20)
• Contrast with Previous Administrations:
  • Democrats lose credibility by not matching outrage and action.
  • The hypocrisy of support for law enforcement when it suits political needs is called out (e.g., Trump's treatment of Capitol riot offenders versus immigrants).

Notable Quotes:

• “This is one of those moments of frustration for me where I'm like, we're watching the same video, and I know that we are seeing the same thing... you're going to show up and they're going to vote for the other guy.” (Jessica Tarlov, 08:10)
• “The scariest thing that J.D. Vance said about Officer Ross was when he said he has complete immunity.” (Jessica Tarlov, 10:02)
• “I do think it's radicalizing for people who think like us, but I think it's also radicalizing for normal Americans who are not paying attention to this but are saying, we elected you to lower our grocery prices.” (Jessica Tarlov, 10:40)
• On why this is a “turning point”: “You can see in every second of that video and in their, the government's reaction, how un-American it all is and how much they are lying to us. And that makes me afraid... This is the highest my threat level has ever been, watching this.” (Sarah Longwell, 14:55)

Timestamps:

• Minneapolis & ICE shooting context: 03:19–14:59
• Notable Sarah Longwell quote on gaslighting: 04:34, 06:20
• Jessica Tarlov: public radicalization: 10:40

3. ICE, Immigration Policy, and Political Strategy (14:59–23:49)

Key Points:

• ICE's Declining Approval:
  • ICE is now widely unpopular; even hardline figures like Tom Holman appear moderate versus Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem.
• Independence, Liberties, and American Instincts:
  • Americans—even conservative ones—are deeply uncomfortable with armed, masked agents using excessive force, especially under partisan pretexts.
  • “Your American birthright is you do not have to get down on your knees for tyrants.” (Sarah Longwell, 12:54)
• How Democrats Should Talk About Crime & Immigration:
  • Democrats must acknowledge genuine public concerns about safety, order, and the economy—not dismiss them as racism.
  • “Americans are not irrational and racist for wanting to have a workable immigration system.” (Sarah Longwell, 19:28)
• Essentials for Voter Trust:
  • People mostly want affordability, safety, and non-alienating social messaging.
  • Table stakes for successful politics: affordable living (healthcare/education), safety (crime/immigration), less preachy on social issues.

Notable Quotes:

• “Table ante for politics is: I’m gonna think about your material well-being, I’m gonna think about your safety, and then, like, I’m not gonna be so annoying on social issues.” (Sarah Longwell, 21:00)
• “People want, can I afford?...and so there are some stories that are DC stories, and then there’s stories for the American people. The Reneé Goode story is a story for the American people.” (Sarah Longwell, 22:51)

Timestamps:

• ICE, immigration, public safety: 14:59–23:49

4. The Fed, Jerome Powell, and the Independence of Institutions (24:49–34:06)

Context:

• Federal prosecutors launch a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell (ostensibly over a building project, but widely seen as retaliation for resisting Trump’s interference).
• Even some Republicans acknowledge this is crude retaliation, not the usual partisan posturing.

Key Points:

• Trump’s Economic Strategy:
  • Trump’s tariffs worsen the economy; he seeks to force the Fed to lower rates for short-term gain.
  • Powell stands nearly alone as an institutionalist.
• Defiance & Integrity:
  • Jerome Powell’s calm, public defiance is praised as an inspiring stance amid widespread capitulation to Trump.
  • “Not all heroes wear capes... he is putting his body out in front and saying, I won’t let you do this to my institution.” (Sarah Longwell, 28:17)
• Danger to Checks and Balances:
  • Powell’s resistance highlights how rare backbone is among Washington’s elites.
  • Public declarations by economic leaders signal the issue’s seriousness to both elites and the broader public.

Notable Quotes:

• “Watching Jerome Powell in all of his old man steadiness... he is publicly putting his body out in front and saying, I won’t let you do this to my institution.” (Sarah Longwell, 28:17)
• “He is fighting in a world in which everybody else has basically given up their institution for Trump’s benefit.” (Sarah Longwell, 28:54)
• “Joint statements…all the former Fed chairs and treasury secretaries and just this morning, all of the central bankers issued a statement saying ‘we stand in solidarity with Jerome Powell.’” (Jessica Tarlov, 31:08)
• “If your democracy depends on it, you don't renominate an 82-year-old. There is a gap between your actions and what you are saying to us.” (Sarah Longwell, 35:31)

Timestamps:

• Fed, Powell discussion: 24:49–34:06

5. Moderation, Party "Leaners," and the State of Political ID (42:23–49:18)

Topic:

• New Gallup polling: 45% of Americans now identify as Independents, with a notable swing back toward Democrat ID since 2024.

Key Points:

• Nature of "Independents":
  • Most are “leaners” with clear partisan preferences and not true centrists.
  • Many MAGA voters are Trump-first, not GOP loyalists—Trump has eroded the Republican “brand.”
  • There’s no groundswell for a third-party centrist; “independents” are ideologically diverse.
  • “They see Trump as transcending the political parties. They understand the Republican Party is a vehicle for him, but not his party.” (Sarah Longwell, 44:13)
• Young Voters:
  • Younger generations overwhelmingly eschew party labels, having only known politics during the Trump era.
  • Implications: this is not anti-systemism, it’s frustration with legacy parties.

Democratic Prospects:

• Swing in ID and generic ballot favors Democrats for 2026, but the gains won't be massive due to fewer competitive seats and structural issues.
  • “I do think Democrats are going into a strong midterm for them...but that is not enough to save America. Saving America is a root and branch operation for this version of the Republican Party.” (Sarah Longwell, 46:27)

Timestamps:

• Party ID, independents: 42:23–49:18

6. Leadership, Reform, and Long-Term Challenges (49:18–53:22)

Key Points:

• Schumer and Democratic Leadership:
  • Calls for generational change; Schumer credited for candidate recruitment but critiqued for being out of step with new threats.
  • Endorsement for an “orderly transition” to new leadership, in the style of Pelosi.
  • “You’re gonna need people who are ready to do things differently, but he can be a facilitator of that.” (Sarah Longwell, 52:27)
• Democracy at Stake:
  • Concern over “democracy at stake” as an empty slogan—actions must match rhetoric.
  • The long-term fight will require structural changes and a big-tent approach from Democrats.
  • “This is a generational challenge and just one election won’t be enough... it is necessary to stop the bleeding, but insufficient for the long term project of beating back the toxic forces that Donald Trump has unleashed on America.” (Sarah Longwell, 48:32)

Memorable Moments and Quotes

• On the turning point:
  • “This is the highest my threat level has ever been. Watching this.” (Sarah Longwell, 14:55)
• On the stress of being the centrist, lone voice:
  • “People don’t realize, I think, enough how unusual it is to have somebody like you get access to that audience and be able to just sit there and spit facts for a piece of time where they get an alternate perspective. And, like, that is the Lord’s work...that is so important.” (Sarah Longwell, 39:00)
• Advice to moderates:
  • “What’s the point of having those people in there if they’re just gonna...let Trump rfk the worst.” (Jessica Tarlov, 36:51)
• On party loyalty:
  • “I was a John McCain Republican. I gotta say, though...For those of us who feel so deeply betrayed, like, everything we were taught and told was a lie.” (Sarah Longwell, 37:38)

Section Timestamps

• 00:33–03:19: Banter & introductions
• 03:19–14:59: Minneapolis, ICE, government gaslighting & public reaction
• 14:59–23:49: ICE, immigration, and Democratic messaging
• 24:49–34:06: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump, and institutional independence
• 42:23–49:18: Gallup party ID poll, independence, and the state of the electorate
• 49:18–53:22: Democratic leadership, generational change, and the path forward

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering but energetic look at why this moment might genuinely be a turning point for America. The discussion is both grounded in everyday public sentiment and elevated by a focus on institutional integrity and long-term political trends. Listeners come away with a nuanced understanding of how high-stakes, real-time events are shifting both public mood and elite action, why centrism and moderation are newly embattled, and what both moderates and Democrats must do to meet the real challenge: rebuilding public trust and saving American democracy itself.