Peering Into the Crystal Ball (feat. Larry Sabato)

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Peering Into the Crystal Ball (feat. Larry Sabato)"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
• Host/Authors: Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
• Network: Vox Media Podcast Network
• Episode: Peering Into the Crystal Ball (feat. Larry Sabato)
• Release Date: May 23, 2025

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Introduction to the Episode

In the episode titled "Peering Into the Crystal Ball," hosts Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov welcome renowned political scientist Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia and founder of the Center for Politics. Sabato is celebrated for his insightful election forecasts and his keen analysis of American political dynamics. The discussion delves into the current state of American politics, the fragility of democracy, and strategies for the Democratic Party to reclaim influence.

Current Political Era: A Frightening Landscape

[01:11] Scott Galloway: "So, Jess, today we're joined by one of the sharpest minds in American politics, Larry Sabato."

Sabato opens the conversation by describing the present political era as "frightening," emphasizing the deep divisions and threats to democratic structures that have been meticulously built over decades. He warns that repairing the governmental damage could take a generation or more.

[02:05] Larry Sabato: "It's entirely possible that Trump is going to find ways and means either of staying in power himself or if not guaranteeing then assisting."

Sabato expresses concern over former President Trump’s potential to consolidate power further, either directly or by supporting successors like J.D. Vance or possibly Marco Rubio.

Threats to Democracy: Consolidation of Power

[03:29] Larry Sabato: "Democracy. It's fundamental to everything that we have done as a people and will do as a people, I hope."

Sabato articulates his primary concern: the erosion of democratic principles. He highlights the peril of a society so divided that it cannot collaborate on significant issues, noting the alarming trend of followers supporting "cult leaders" who undermine democratic norms.

[05:17] Larry Sabato: "The accumulation of power in the Oval Office and a tiny group of aides around him, some of whom are even more extreme than Trump."

He identifies the consolidation of executive power and the potential ignoring of court decisions as the most disturbing specific threats posed by the Trump administration. Sabato underscores the danger of circumventing checks and balances, deviating from the founders' intentions.

The Role of Civic Education in Preserving Democracy

[07:40] Larry Sabato: "At base, it's civic education, which is what my center for Politics is dedicated to and is trying to do something about at the lowest possible levels."

Sabato emphasizes the pivotal role of civic education in safeguarding democracy. He advocates for comprehensive education starting from kindergarten to high school, ensuring citizens understand and actively engage with the political system. The decline in civic engagement, particularly among those who do not closely follow the news, poses a significant threat.

[08:26] Jessica Tarlev: "Yes."

Sabato references a poll by The New York Times showing that individuals who follow the news carefully are more critical of Trump, suggesting that increased media engagement could mitigate support for anti-democratic actions.

State of the Democratic Party: Challenges and Strategies

[10:10] Larry Sabato: "They control nothing."

Sabato candidly assesses the Democratic Party's current standing, noting their lack of control over key governmental bodies, including the House, Senate, and federal agencies. He suggests that the party’s focus should pivot towards controlling their own forums and preparing for future elections.

[10:47] Larry Sabato: "You have to spend a lot of time and energy and effort looking toward the next election, which they should be doing more of rather than less of."

He advises the Democratic Party to prioritize upcoming elections, particularly aiming to regain the House of Representatives. Sabato also recommends engaging in nonviolent civil disobedience and organizing around non-negotiable demands to energize and activate the base.

Independents in Elections: Swaying the Middle Ground

[18:07] Jessica Tarlev: "Can you talk a bit about the role of independence?"

Sabato discusses the significant influence of independent voters, who have increasingly turned against Trump. He stresses that independents, concentrated in the middle and lower-middle class, are crucial for electoral outcomes. However, their low engagement levels present both a challenge and an opportunity for political parties.

[18:19] Larry Sabato: "Independents have turned pretty strongly against Trump. That's why his ratings have been falling."

He highlights that as independents become more informed and engaged, particularly those previously indifferent to politics, they may continue to shift their support away from Trump, potentially favoring Democratic candidates.

Election Predictions: House and Senate Outlook

[19:01] Scott Galloway: "What are we predicting? So far, it would be nearly impossible to predict that Republicans would hold the House..."

Sabato provides his analysis on upcoming elections, expressing skepticism about early public predictions favoring Republican control of both the House and Senate.

[20:02] Larry Sabato: "I don't buy it. Some of my colleagues do. I think the odds are substantial that Democrats will carry the House."

He anticipates a strong performance from Democrats in the House, potentially gaining up to 20 seats in an anti-Trump wave. Regarding the Senate, Sabato remains cautious, noting the structural advantages Republicans hold due to the Senate's composition, although he acknowledges some possibilities for Democratic gains in key states.

Social Media’s Impact: A Double-Edged Sword

[22:04] Larry Sabato: "There's nothing we can do about social media. I wish we could."

Sabato voices his frustration with social media, attributing much of the current political polarization and misinformation to these platforms. He laments the inability to control or mitigate the negative effects of social media on public discourse and democracy.

Personal Insights: Larry Sabato’s Rages and Calm Reflections

[22:04] Larry Sabato: "I rage about a lot of things, but mainly it's my age, probably because I watch more TV news than I ever have before."

Sabato shares a personal reflection, citing his age and the overwhelming nature of modern news cycles as sources of frustration. He also discusses the pervasive influence of social media, which exacerbates political tensions and hampers constructive dialogue.

[22:17] Larry Sabato: "We really can't survive for the long term the way we are now."

He underscores the existential threat to the republic, advocating for heightened vigilance and proactive measures to uphold democratic integrity.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

As the conversation wraps up, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov thank Larry Sabato for his invaluable insights. Sabato reiterates the urgency of addressing the threats to democracy and the necessity for collective action to ensure the preservation of democratic institutions.

[24:41] Larry Sabato: "Thank you very much. And you've got me raging. I hope you're happy."

The episode concludes on a reflective note, emphasizing the critical need for informed and engaged citizenship to navigate and rectify the current political turbulence.

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Notable Quotes:

• Larry Sabato [02:05]: "It's entirely possible that Trump is going to find ways and means either of staying in power himself or if not guaranteeing then assisting."

• Larry Sabato [03:29]: "Democracy. It's fundamental to everything that we have done as a people and will do as a people, I hope."

• Larry Sabato [05:17]: "The accumulation of power in the Oval Office and a tiny group of aides around him, some of whom are even more extreme than Trump."

• Larry Sabato [07:40]: "At base, it's civic education, which is what my center for Politics is dedicated to and is trying to do something about at the lowest possible levels."

• Larry Sabato [10:10]: "They control nothing."

• Larry Sabato [18:19]: "Independents have turned pretty strongly against Trump. That's why his ratings have been falling."

• Larry Sabato [22:04]: "There's nothing we can do about social media. I wish we could."

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This episode of "Raging Moderates" offers a comprehensive examination of the current challenges facing American democracy, the pivotal role of civic education, and strategic insights into the Democratic Party's path forward. Larry Sabato's expertise provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the political landscape, emphasizing the urgency of collective action to preserve and strengthen democratic institutions.

Transcript

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[Larry Sabato]

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[Scott Galloway]

Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.

[Jessica Tarlev]

And I'm Jessica Tarlev.

[Scott Galloway]

So, Jess, today we're joined by one of the sharpest minds in American politics, Larry Sabato. He's a professor at the University of Virginia and founder of the center for Politics, where he spent decades studying the pattern shifts and surprises in US Elections. You've probably seen his team's crystal ball election forecasts are some of the most cited in the country. And Larry himself doesn't shy away from calling out threats to democracy, whether it's Trumpism, rising border apathy, or the nationalization of local races. In recent months, he warned that we're in a dangerous moment, one defined more by emotion than ideology, where outrage is fueling turnout and independence are swinging fast. Larry, welcome to the show.

[Larry Sabato]

Thank you so much for having me. Looking forward to it.

[Scott Galloway]

So let's jump right in. We're just a few months into Trump's second term. You've spent your career studying how political eras take shape. How would you describe the one we're in right now?

[Larry Sabato]

Frightening. And it could get a lot worse before it gets better. And a lot of the damage being done to the governmental structure, which we spent decades as a people putting together, will take a generation or more to repair. I don't think anyone doubts that there's a lot of it will have to be repaired because it's not working out and it won't work out. And what really worries me and I think worries everybody is as we move closer to elections, maybe it's 2026. I think it's much more likely to be 2028. Things we've taken for granted, we can't take for granted anymore. It's entirely possible that Trump is going to find ways and means either of staying in power himself or if not guaranteeing then assisting. Whether it's Vance or I don't think it would be Rubio. It might be Rubio or one of his sons to succeed him. Now, I hope that that won't happen. I hope we're better than that. I hope there are enough checks and balances left to make sure it doesn't happen. But we can't assume these things anymore.

[Scott Galloway]

So if you were going to zero in on one thing that you find most distressing, I mean, part of the problem here is sort of this flood the zone of all these different things that seem outrageous, that I think a lot of us feel flat footed in terms of what to on what is the one thing that has you most disturbed?

[Larry Sabato]

Well, democracy. It's fundamental to everything that we have done as a people and will do as a people, I hope. And look, I can get as upset as anybody about renaming the Gulf of Mexico or the possibility of invading Greenland, but what I'm really worried about is that we'll no longer have a society that can work together on at least some big issues. And we are just deeply, deeply divided. And I've been around getting ready to turn 73. I remember the 60s when we had a lot of polarization and division. But this is much worse. This goes right to the fundamentals and people don't agree on the fundamentals anymore or they're willing to follow a cult leader. And when the cult leader says these rules don't apply to me, they applaud. So yes, that is what bothers me more than anything else, though I would dispute a lot of the things that Trump and Musk have done.

[Scott Galloway]

So. But just if I may, I agree with you, but I don't think, sort of, at least to date, I'm not sure that the valid upset about the attack on democracy is working. I'm not saying that narrative isn't right. I just don't know if it's effective. And what I'm asking is what specifically do you think presents the greatest threat so far to democracy? Is it the illegal usurp of congressional power for the purse? Is it tearing up old alliances, siding with dictators or autocrats over our allies? Is it the weaponization of the doj. What specifically if we were to try and focus in on specific things, rather than this call that democracy is under attack, which a lot of us agree with. What specifically do you think is the most disturbing specific act of the Trump administration so far?

[Larry Sabato]

The accumulation of power in the Oval Office and a tiny group of aides around him, some of whom are even more extreme than Trump. I don't think Trump is extreme in the old sense of the word. He's just all for himself. His personal pronouns are me, myself, and I. But the people around him clearly want to amass as much power as possible as early as possible and head off all of the checks and balances. So what am I most concerned about? I would say the potential for ignoring court decisions, which is very real. They're trying to eat at the edges of this with some of the moves they've already made. That would worry me more than anything else. But I'm concerned about everything you mentioned. We all ought to be concerned about all of that, because it all fits together. It's all roads lead to the Oval Office. Except that's not what the founders wanted, and it's not how we practice politics for all of these years.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, it's almost as if no one is thinking about what's to happen in the post Trump era, whatever that may look like or wherever we may get that. And you're totally right that it's just by the book. If Trump says jump, we say how high. We're seeing that with the reconciliation Bill, Mike Johnson has come out and said, well, when Biden did it, he was trying to hide this. What's great about the Trump family is they're just doing it in front of us. So this naked corruption, all well and good, because we can see it. And my question, as someone who's immersed in data constantly, is how do you take these very real concerns that all of us, certainly on this podcast and millions of Americans have about the threat to democracy, about the consolidation of executive power, about a Supreme Court that doesn't seem to have a problem with this kind of consolidation of executive power and translate that into election results, because I thought we had a pretty strong case in November. Granted, Kamala coming in for Biden, it was complicated. But post January six, you see someone who doesn't respect the rule of law. Right. Or someone who doesn't think that your vote should count and voters turned up and they elected him, reelected him, and they knew all of this about him. So how do you think we can get that to stick? Or do you Think it's just always going to be the economy, and we have to hope and pray for a recession so people vote for Democrats.

[Larry Sabato]

Well, at base, it's civic education, which is what my center for Politics is dedicated to and is trying to do something about at the lowest possible levels, meaning starting in kindergarten and going through at least high school and maybe junior colleges as well. You have to teach people how to interpret the system, and they have to be willing to pay attention. They have to be willing to remember that citizenship in America doesn't require very much anymore, but at a very minimum, it requires that citizens pay attention to big events, and they don't. I think the New York Times had a piece of a poll over the weekend where they separated Americans into people who follow the news carefully and people who don't.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yes.

[Larry Sabato]

And the people who followed the news carefully were much more critical of Trump and much more concerned about what he was doing. And the people who didn't follow what was happening in the news thought a lot of what Trump was doing was just fine. They were much more inclined to support him. And that is potentially fatal to a system like ours. We've got to work on it. Everybody's got to work on it. Most universities have a center like mine. We all ought to be working together on it. High school and elementary school teachers have to work together on it. We started this 25 years ago, and we were able to get in the schools fairly easily. In fact, the superintendents and principals welcomed us because we were providing all the information they needed for free. They paid for nothing. They used what they wanted to use. Now we can't even get our foot in the door because it's political. They're worried about offending their Republican governors or their Republican legislatures or, goodness knows, the Trump administration in Washington. And I've seen it everywhere. I've seen it here. People hunker down. They don't want to challenge things. They feel strongly about something, but they won't speak out about it. That has never been a part of university life around the country. It is now. Fear is everywhere, which is exactly what the Trump administration has been trying to do, and they are succeeding.

[Scott Galloway]

So one of the things that frustrates me as a Democrat, and it sounds like we share concern over what's taking place, is that I feel like the best ally of this autocracy is an incredibly weak Democratic Party, and that if the election, my understanding is the election happened a few days ago, despite everything that's gone on, that the president still would win.

[Larry Sabato]

Yes.

[Scott Galloway]

And I See leadership that is feckless. I see an inability to message correctly and meet people where they get their news now. And I couldn't even name if someone said, who's the Democratic leader? I wouldn't be able to give you a name. I don't know if it's AOC or Senate. Minority Leader Schumer, you studied politics and election cycles. If you were advising the Democratic Party here on how to effectively punch back, what points in history would you look to, either in this nation or abroad, such that we could rally? What is a more effective resistance?

[Larry Sabato]

Let's start by remembering Democrats don't control the House even if it's five votes. We're so partisan today. The five votes is enough to govern, as I think they'll prove again with that big, beautiful bill. Yeah, they don't control the Senate. They do have some influence there when 60 votes are required, but they don't control it. They don't control the White House. They don't control even federal agencies that are supposed to be independent, much less the rest of the bureaucracy. They don't control half of the states, a little more than half of the states and the legislatures. They don't control the Supreme Court, which is still tilted Republican, even if occasionally one or two of them will break with the Trump preferences. So they control nothing. And in a situation like that, you have to control your forum first because you don't have anything else. You have to spend a lot of time and energy and effort looking toward the next election, which they should be doing more of rather than less of. That's their chance to regain the House. It would take a massive landslide wave against Trump to take control of the Senate, given the seats that are up. But they can at least focus on the House. And I think a 10, 15, 20 seat majority is entirely possible. The way they're going, they'll be lucky to have the five seat majority that Republicans have right now. But once you have some piece of the government that you control, you control the schedule, you control a lot of the issues that come before it. You can have a greater impact. But for right now, other than focusing on the elections, which to me is the most important thing by far, you want to find ways to attract media attention and therefore the public's attention, at least those who will pay minimal attention to what the media are covering. And you do that by clever actions, by protests that are, yes, intense, maybe involving civil disobedience, nonviolent, non violent. I always add that because somebody's going to write me and say, oh, he's pushing violence, of course not. Nonviolent civil disobedience has had a major impact on American history. There should be some of that. There needs to be some of that. So it's tough to say. I can tell you what they shouldn't be doing. I can't stop laughing about Chuck Schumer's tough letter. Really tough, tough language to President Trump as though he reads anything. That's what they think opposition is. And I don't mean just to criticize Schumer because it's really a party wide problem and the leadership is. And I'm saying this as a guy getting ready to turn 73, so I'm a senior. It's way too old. The Democratic structure is way too old. They need a lot more younger people who won't take no for an answer. And yes, a good number of people who do what we used to do in the 60s and 70s, issue a list of non negotiable demands, all of which you will negotiate in time, but you have a list of non negotiable demands and you organize around it and you get people energized about it and activated about, because the Democratic Party and the Democratic constituency is half dead. And I'm being kind.

[Scott Galloway]

You spent your life at an institute of higher education. How would you describe the quote, unquote, anti discrimination or efforts to root out anti Semitism of the Trump administration by cutting funding to higher education institutions? What is your viewpoint there and can you point to any similar situations throughout history and how that informs what's going on here?

[Larry Sabato]

Well, you want to start by saying any antisemitism is wrong and we had a little bit of it here, it was relatively minor compared to other universities. And while it's a legitimate concern and it's worse in some places and it deserves a lot of focus and it's getting it as far as I can see. It's also a cover story for the Trump administration. They're using that. That is not a reason to limit what universities can investigate or to withdraw grants that are looking into terrible diseases. People will die because of all of this withdrawn money. It's not wasted money. In fact, if you want money well spent, you generally go to the health side of a university. So it's a cover story to some degree.

[Scott Galloway]

Agreed.

[Larry Sabato]

I tell you what people should focus on more. It's not just Trump. It's where he's reinforced by Republican governors and or Republican legislators. In most of the states, the governors appoint most or all of the board of trustees or we call it a Board of Visitors here for public institutions. Private institutions do it a different way, but they appoint people who are going to push their agenda. And today the Republican Party agenda is Donald Trump and whatever he stands for. There's so few Republicans who will stand up. I should say there are so few ex Republicans who will stand up to Trump, because if they weren't ex Republicans at the beginning, they'll be ex Republicans once MAGA takes care of them. And that's the real problem because you have the states reinforcing what the Trump administration is doing in the slight majority of the states where they control the appointments. So it's tough again. Elections matter and most of the focus has to be on winning the next election. Not just for the House and the Senate in Washington, but also for the state legislatures and the governorships that are up. And most of them are up in 2026 as an off year election.

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[Larry Sabato]

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[Jessica Tarlev]

Can you talk a bit about the role of independence? Because I go to your commentary for a whole host of reasons, but most predominantly for your vantage point on independents and what actually sways them in elections.

[Larry Sabato]

Of course, independents have turned pretty strongly against Trump. That's why his ratings have been falling. And they'll fall more once the independents who are not paying attention figure out what's going on. They're the group of voters that will switch without much push or pressure, depending on the circumstances of their lives, like the economy, but not just the economy. What influences them is what helps them in their daily lives. They're heavily concentrated in middle class and lower middle class. And those independents, as I say, are busy earning a living or busy living their lives. They don't have a lot of extra time. They certainly don't pay attention to public affairs as much as they should look.

[Scott Galloway]

So you have a kind of branded crystal ball. Given that we're still a ways out, can't come soon enough. What are we 18 months out? What are your predictions so far? What do you see regarding the House in 26 and any Senate races?

[Larry Sabato]

Well, there's a bit of a satirical element to crystal Ball. Our slogan is he who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass. And we've had plenty of ground glass like every other analyst, so I don't want to pretend that we've always been right. Anyway, what are we predicting? So far, it would be nearly impossible to predict that Republicans would hold the House, although we've just published an analysis in the Crystal Ball from some distinguished political scientists who have used another measure that has been ignored for the most part. What does the public think will happen? Which party do they believe will hold on? Well, it's early, but even the early predictions often have been right from the public. And they seem to think Republicans will hang on to both the House and Senate.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Wow.

[Larry Sabato]

I don't buy it. Some of my colleagues do. I think the odds are substantial that Democrats will carry the House. We don't know the margin. We can't even guesstimate the margin. I think it could go up to around 20 seats if it's a anti Trump landslide, obviously higher than that, more than that, as it was in 2018. But the Senate, there's a tiny chance Democrats could take control. But look at the map. You know, the normal balance in the Senate, if you look at the map, according to the red and blue divisions that exist in America today is about 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. So Democrats really do have to be riding something of a wave, probably in two elections to take control of the Senate again, because the normal majority is about what they have right now, 5347 for the Republicans. That's because of the system the founders set up, which I published a book, A more perfect constitution. 23 changes to the constitution, not one of them has happened since I published a book in 2007. It's been very hurtful to me personally, but I don't think the Senate should be structured the way it is. When you have four senators from two Dakotas and I've spent some time in both Dakotas and you can't tell them apart. I'm sorry. There's no reason why they should have four senators. But with enough red states, small rural states, the Republicans have to try to lose the Senate. Now gubernatorially, there is a real chance for Democratic breakthrough, but they also have to hold close states, competitive states that they have, like Michigan and Arizona and so on. But they could score some surprising victories there as off year elections when people are just as, I think they will be dead sick of Trump and the Trump appeasers or Trump acolytes or Trump minions that are in office.

[Scott Galloway]

Jess, last question.

[Jessica Tarlev]

So we ask all our guests this. What's one issue that makes you rage and what's one issue that you think we should all calm down about?

[Larry Sabato]

I rage about a lot of things, but mainly it's my age, probably because I watch more TV news than I ever have before.

[Jessica Tarlev]

As someone who's on cable news, I apologize to the entire world for what we export.

[Larry Sabato]

It's okay. It's really social media more than it is tv. TV funnels. What's selling on social media? I think more than the reverse, that makes me rage. There's nothing we can do about social media. I wish we could. I gave up on flying cars, but we were promised a time machine and we still don't have one. Because I'd like to go back and make it impossible to create social media. I don't know how I do it, but I would try to do that. In addition to preventing assassinations and lots of other terrible things. We can't survive for the long term the way we are now. We really can't. And I wish people would focus on that. I know it's hard, as Scott was saying earlier, it's very difficult to get people to care about democracy enough to make it an issue or the issue in an election. I completely agree that that is true for now. It ought not to be true after January 6th. Maybe the Democratic Party would do better just rerunning the films of January 6th instead of the crap they put out there on TV ads. The clever TV ads that pay the consult enormous fees, just remind people what was at stake and what could have happened. And in the recesses of his mind, you're not going to tell me that he isn't thinking of ways to continue his regime, either with him or with somebody that he trusts, a member of his family or maybe J.D. vance, I don't know. In four years, and I'm even worried about 2026. What can his CISA do? The organization in DHS that looks at cybersecurity and they know how the system works. And if you have an honest head of cisa, they make it work better. And they make sure that foreign influences are not guiding our elections. But if you have someone who has bad motives and who is listening to the devils in the Oval Office, then it is possible to tilt even a midterm election. So we all need to watch everything carefully. We have to. It's a matter of our survival as a republic. That was a long answer. I got to.

[Jessica Tarlev]

No, it was great.

[Larry Sabato]

Okay. But it's a podcast, you know, forever.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, it's not cable news. Larry Sabato is a professor at the University of Virginia and founder of the center of Politics. We very much appreciate your time today, Larry, and congrats on. On the center and all your success.

[Larry Sabato]

Thank you very much. And you've got me raging. I hope you're happy.

[Scott Galloway]

There you go.

[Larry Sabato]

Rage.

[Jessica Tarlev]

That was a good rage. I've seen a lot of raging. And you're up there.