The Affordability Crisis Trump Can’t Spin

Summary

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Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Episode: The Affordability Crisis Trump Can’t Spin

Date: December 10, 2025

Host: Vox Media Podcast Network

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Overview

This episode tackles the ongoing U.S. affordability crisis through a centrist lens, focusing on President Trump’s attempts to control the narrative, the political and economic realities facing Americans, the role of women in the GOP, and the latest twists in the Texas Senate race. Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov dissect policy failures, economic data, the performance (or lack thereof) of both parties, and the strategic implications for 2026 and beyond. The discussion blends policy analysis, pointed criticism, and personal anecdotes, all wrapped in the duo’s signature banter.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Affordability Crisis and Presidential Spin

Segment Start: [03:31]

• Trump’s Affordability "Blitz":
  Trump pitches lower gas prices and tariffs as middle-class wins, but economic signals contradict him—consumer sentiment is low, layoffs are up, and retailers foresee further price hikes.

  “Layoffs have already topped 1.1 million this year, with small businesses hit hardest…Trump promised lower prices, but tariffs, Medicaid cuts and rising healthcare costs have left him playing defense and scrambling to sell an economy many Americans say still feels really unaffordable.”
  — Scott Galloway [04:13]

• Bipartisan Spin:
  Tarlov draws parallels to Democrats previously downplaying economic pain, critiquing both parties for failing to “show their work” on policy efficacy.

  “Watching Republicans very much do the same things that Democrats did when they were defending an economy that average Americans were screaming from the rooftops is not working for them is the height of stupidity.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [05:07]

• Root Causes According to Galloway:

  • Tariffs don’t improve affordability long-term; hurt innovation.

  • Politicians avoid discussing hard solutions like boosting housing supply, nationalizing healthcare, and tough antitrust enforcement.

  • Both parties offer band-aids, not real reform.

  • The resilience of the U.S. economy is due to daily innovation, not smart policy.

    “I'm shocked the economy isn't worse given how just stupid these policies have been and the fact that every nation in the world is trying to reroute their supply chain around ours.”
    — Scott Galloway [07:34]

• Concrete Solutions Proposed by Galloway:

  • Aggressively expand affordable housing via tax credits, YIMBY laws, and new construction tech.

  • Nationalize medicine, expand Medicare eligibility gradually.

  • Tie college tuition to family income; threaten tax-exempt status for stagnant, ultra-wealthy universities.

  • Enforce antitrust, especially in sectors like streaming and agriculture.

    “If we’re really gonna have an adult conversation around affordability, let’s have an adult conversation. The problem is it’s boring shit that will take years, if not decades.”
    — Scott Galloway [11:38]

2. Economic Data Blackout and Its Consequences

Segment Start: [12:14]

• No Official Economic Reports:
  Tarlov notes the government is withholding jobs, GDP, and inflation data, speculating on political motives and market/investment impacts.

  “We got no jobs report, no GDP report, and now no inflation report. So we're never going to see a number out of this government again...What are the real world implications of not having good data around what's going on in our economy?”
  — Jessica Tarlov [13:17]

• Galloway’s Analogy:
  Flying a $25 trillion economy blind, likens it to landing a 747 with no instruments:

  “When you don’t have data, as we don’t, we’re trying to land a $25 trillion economy on a hard surface. Without instruments, we don’t know what’s going on. And we’ve become China. Except China’s smarter than us.”
  — Scott Galloway [13:53]

• Risks of Data Concealment:

  • Weakens Fed and business decision-making.

  • Erodes voter ability to hold officials accountable.

  • Pushes society to rely on speculation rather than facts.

    “This leads to an economy that's much more prone to stroke.”
    — Scott Galloway [15:45]

3. ACA/Obamacare Subsidy Drama

Segment Start: [15:45]

• Stalemate in Congress:
  Multiple Republican and bipartisan proposals float, but a clean Democratic extension is likely to fail; premium hikes loom.

  • Thune’s role: Both hosts share personal anecdotes about meeting Senator John Thune to humanize the discussion.

    “I think that the premium hikes are going to go through...Republicans have been trying to get to their goal of repealing and replacing Obamacare...and still have never brought anything decent that speaks to the way that Americans want their healthcare delivered.”
    — Jessica Tarlov [18:18]

• Political Framing:
  Potential fallout for the GOP if premiums spike; Democrats may campaign as defenders of healthcare access.

  “Could be a net advantage for Democrats because we'll get to own this issue that Republicans literally don't care about your health care.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [19:20]

4. Women and Power Inside the GOP

Segment Start: [22:42]

• Nancy Mace’s Op-Ed:
  Mace criticizes GOP leadership for sidelining women and failling to deliver for voters; contrasts with Democratic effectiveness under Nancy Pelosi.

  "May says Republicans are petrified of losing power, too timid to deliver for their base, and far less effective than Democrats...unless the GOP starts governing boldly...they’ll lose their majority and deservedly so."
  — Scott Galloway [22:50]

• Realities of GOP Culture:
  Tarlov: Mace’s move is strategic (possible gubernatorial run) and part of a “vibe shift”—frustration, lack of legislative action, mass retirements on the horizon.

  “I like that she shouted out Nancy Pelosi though, and how effective she is...They all respect what an amazing power broker she was and continues to be, even not in leadership.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [24:36]

• Marjorie Taylor Greene Mention:
  Galloway dismisses her efforts to rebrand as moderate.

  “I felt like I was watching an arsonist lecture us on fire safety...I just can’t wait for her to exit stage right, stage left, stage. Get the fuck off the stage.”
  — Scott Galloway [25:18]

• Internal GOP Instability:
  Galloway notes prediction markets show a 65% chance of Speaker Johnson being ousted before midterms.

5. Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs. Crockett

Segment Start: [28:59]

• Race Overview:
  Unexpected Democratic showdown between Talarico (bipartisan appeal, policy) and Crockett (progressive, national profile) after Colin Allred switches races due to redistricting.

• Messaging Caution:
  Tarlov fears Crockett’s national persona may feed “leftwing caricature” narrative and distract from affordability, housing, and border issues central to Texas.

  “This is the affordability election. Like, let's talk about what's happened to everyday Texans, right?...We are about to have like an ugly Donald Trump centric race.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [31:06]

• Galloway’s Admiration:
  Loves both candidates, praises Crockett’s courage and Talarico’s faith-driven politics; admits he’s funding both.

  “I love both these people...I think Talarico’s ability to incorporate faith into public policy is just really elegant and powerful...Crockett is a hero of mine...courageous, compelling, unafraid, smart. I just think she’s outstanding.”
  — Scott Galloway [32:19]

• Strategic Concerns:

  • Texas remains tough terrain for Democrats; choosing the “right candidate for the right race” is key.

  • Primary electorate vs. general election dynamics highlighted.

  • Galloway defers to Tarlov’s pragmatism and polling expertise.

    “You don't wanna just win a primary like you wanna win a general.”
    — Jessica Tarlov [37:35]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariffs/Affordability:

  “If he was serious about affordability, there's just absolutely no case for tariffs making shit more affordable.”
  — Scott Galloway [08:40]

• On Data Blackout:

  “This is just like Trotsky being erased from photos because we don't like what he represented.”
  — Scott Galloway [14:45]

• On Congressional Dysfunction:

  “It's going to be the biggest do nothing Congress in American history.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [24:02]

• On Texas Democrats:

  “It’s like on an amazing day, [Texas is] purplish. Right. And it's usually red and on the right.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [35:21]

• On Women in Leadership:

  “I wanted to say hello, you do such a great job. And I thought that that was so nice and not everybody behaves that way. There are Republicans who avoid me like the plague when they see me in a social situation and [Thune] beelined and was delightful and also very, very handsome.”
  — Jessica Tarlov [18:02]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [03:31] — Introduction to the affordability crisis and Trump’s messaging
• [05:00] — Tarlov’s critique of spinning economic data
• [07:34] — Galloway on U.S. economic resilience and failures of both parties
• [12:14] — Critique of U.S. handling of economic stats blackout
• [15:45] — ACA/Obamacare subsidy drama and predictions
• [22:42] — Nancy Mace op-ed, women in the GOP, and party dysfunction
• [28:59] — Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. Crockett, and analysis of Democratic prospects

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Tone & Language

• Conversational, wry, and candid: frequent asides, personal stories, and pop culture references
• Centrist/reality-based: Both hosts critique failures on right and left, seeking pragmatic solutions

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Final Takeaway

"Raging Moderates" in this episode delivers a scathing and often humorous indictment of both parties’ inability to address America’s mounting affordability woes. While Scott and Jessica acknowledge the resilience and innovation of Americans, they warn that lacking real, data-driven solutions and legislative courage, neither side is giving the voters in the middle what they want. Ultimately, the path forward will require tough choices, long-term investment, and leaders willing to run real policy experiments—not just spin.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.

[A]

And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

[B]

Jess, Jess, Jess, Jess, Jess, Jess. Oh, Scott, I just made a bunch of, like, incredibly racist and homophobic jokes off my.

[A]

I was here. Yeah, yeah, it wasn't that bad. I don't want people to like, how about try to find out?

[B]

We have to bring the producer. How bad, David? Exhibit 24 in the. In the lawsuit. I think that's going to hurt your chances if you're going to run for president. Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're right.

[A]

Sorry to the tribe.

[B]

I think you're right.

[A]

Everyone will be devastated.

[B]

Yeah, there you go. I'm off. Even on the Cialis ticket. A Cialis?

[A]

I don't know. The Cialis ticket is a totally different world that I am thankfully not yet familiar with. Give us 10 years.

[B]

I guess your husband's coming. Your husband's familiar with it. Before you know you're familiar with it.

[A]

Oh, is that going to be like this every. Because the girls go through all of our drawers and then they'll just be like, what's this?

[B]

Let me just give you a little 411 that we start taking it. It's not a group decision that we start. We do.

[A]

You just let us know once you think you're having a heart attack and you're like, by the way, I've been taking tons of dick drugs.

[B]

We let you know in other ways that are more implicit. But yeah, no trust me on this. It's usually not a group family. It's not like a family meeting. Dad, dad. Sex with dad is like a taffy pull right now. So we had a family meeting and what do you think of dad taking.

Why does that make me happy?

[A]

Well, family meeting around, talking about affordability. But I will say I remember my parents telling me this is not about their sex life, but they were driving, you know, they were Oregon to California a lot. And they were driving and listening to a local Oregon radio host who was talking, taking callers. And a guy called in and he said, like, our sex life is terrible. He was like in his late 60s, I think at this point. He said, I just, I roll it in and my parents laugh. Roll it in. Well, you said it's like a taffy pull. Isn't that like eventually what you have to do?

[B]

Yeah, those things are coming.

[A]

Older penises.

[B]

It's coming for all of us.

[A]

Okay, David's back.

[B]

Let's get into it.

[A]

Affordability.

[B]

Today we're discussing Trump's continued spin on the affordability crisis, how women are treated in the gop, and we'll check in on the Texas Senate race. All right, let's get into it. President Trump is launching a nationwide affordability blitz with a major speech in Pennsylvania touting falling gas prices and arguing his tariffs will ultimately help the middle class. But he's doing this as key indicators move the other way. Consumer sentiment is down sharply. Retailers warn prices will rise in January once inventories run out. And layoffs have already topped 1.1 million this year, with small businesses hit hardest. Despite calling affordability concerns a hoax, the White House is scrambling to show action, opening a price fixing probe into imported food and rolling out a $12 billion bailout for farmers hurt by Trump's own tariffs. All of this lands just as the Fed weighs another rate cut. Healthcare adds even more pressure. Senate Republicans remain split on how to counter Democrats through your extension of ACA subsidies, floating options from HSA based aid to a trim two year extension. But none are expected to reach the floor before Thursday's vote. Democrats say their clean extension is the only way to prevent premium hikes. Trump promised lower prices, but tariffs, Medicaid cuts and rising healthcare costs have left him playing defense and scrambling to sell an economy many Americans say still feels really unaffordable. Jess, is affordability a hoax? How does the White House square that circle with the decline in sentiment, rising layoffs and looming price hikes?

[A]

Promises made, promises beyond broken. I am always shocked by the level of spin that People like Kevin Hassett have to bring out. I mean, to their credit, they still do these interviews and show up on, like, CNBC and really get pushed, but it's getting embarrassing at this point. And I think I've mentioned to you this before, but watching Republicans very much do the same things that Democrats did when they were defending an economy that average Americans were screaming from the rooftops is not working for them is the height of stupidity. And there's no, you know, like, when you're teaching your kids math and the teachers are always saying, like, show your work, show your work. I feel like nobody is showing their work. They're just telling us, well, the tariffs are going to be a huge boon to the American economy. When, How? Why? If so, why are you rolling back all of them and then saying that that's the relief, like this $12 billion bailout for the farm that's coming from the quote unquote tariff pot, which the amount that's in that changes on a daily basis by, like, trillions of dollars. But everybody knows what that is. And the farmers themselves being interviewed on every channel saying, we don't want a bailout, we want work. Right. We want to have markets for our products, which the administration is sapping. You know, I'm curious as to whether you're seeing bright spots that I'm missing. And I'm conscious of the fact that it's very hard for me to remove my partisan hat. And I'm always looking for things that I can use on the 5, which are usually negative about Donald Trump. But I'm looking at this like, 70% of Americans say they're spending more money on groceries compared to last year. 60% more on utilities, 40% more on healthcare, housing, gasoline, cost of living. Issue number one is housing satisfaction. With housing dropped from 69% to 36% over the course of the year. US manufacturing contracted for nine straight months. China now, trillion dollar trade surplus. And Trump gives the green light to sell the Nvidia chips to them, which will put them at huge computing advantage. And of course, the government is getting a kickback from that. Like the farmers. I want trade, not aid. What am I missing besides a stock market that's obviously been propped up by, is it magnificent 7 or 10? I feel like you go between, between the two. But is there something that I am not getting about what's going on here in the economy?

[B]

I don't think so, other than people would argue that the economy churns on despite how just bass ackward our economic policies have Been at a macro level.

[A]

Why?

[B]

Because the American economy is just incredible. People get up every day and innovate and do incredible things. And the S and p is up 12% because of the AI boom. 13 or 14%, which I think is going to unwind. And it's become dangerously concentrated around 10 companies. And I think China is going to engage in AI dumping to take the entire economy down. But moving back to affordability. Look, you always have to ask yourself with this stuff. The tendency for experts in the media is to catastrophize because you sound smarter and I'm falling to the same thing. And you always need to ask yourself what could go right. Having said that.

I don't think you're missing much here. I'm shocked the economy isn't worse given how just stupid these policies have been and the fact that every nation in the world is trying to reroute their supply chain around ours. Raising our costs. A sclerotic economic policy that no one knows how to even respond. Ridiculous tariffs that then bail out farmers. Well, maybe we just shouldn't have the tariffs to begin with. Trade wars that alienate our partners and massively decrease prosperity because we gain more shareholder value from shipping or exporting Nvidia chips and importing low margin products that accretes to us, benefit to us. So it doesn't make any sense. The thing that's so surprising is how the American economy just grinds on. That so many people get up every morning and innovate and apply new technologies and new ways of doing business and work hard and the economy just continues to grind on. But if he was serious about affordability, there's just absolutely no case for tariffs making shit more affordable. It can protect nascent industries, you can protect employment in certain industries. I would say only over the short run. Eventually everyone has to hold their feet to the flames of global innovation. And when we have free trade, it naturally accretes to us because Americans are just very good at what we do. And you should let low margin businesses go away in exchange for services and innovation businesses. But if they were really serious about affordability, and this is what I can't stand about the Democratic Party is we'll spend a lot of time talking about how fucked up the economy is and then offer no solutions around affordability. If you want to get Serious about affordability, one, you have to go after the biggest increase in CPI, which is housing. 8 to 10 million houses in 10 years. Tax credits that unleash private development, get rid of NIMBY laws and replace Them with YIMBY laws, manufactured homes take the tariffs off. China get some incredible innovation around new construction that lowers the cost by 50 or 60%. Government backed loans for people under the age of 40 and give people psychological and material well being vis a vis much greater supply and housing which will bring down costs. Rent freezes and price controls don't work. Sorry, mom. Donnie, that's just fucking stupid. It decreases supply and increases housing costs too. It's time to nationalize medicine. That's the other CPI that's accelerated twice the cost of the other G6. Lower outcomes, worse outcomes. Lower Medicare eligibility by two to three years every year for 10 years, but take down costs 25% even though they could come down 50%. That massively increases affordability. And then the third thing that has accelerated faster than inflation has been education. And you should tie tuition to income. Specifically a kid coming from an upper income home pays full freight. A kid coming from a lower income home pays massively less in tuition. And if you have an endowment over a billion dollars, you're not growing a freshman class size faster than population growth. You've decided you are no longer a public servant but a fucking Chanel bag. And you should lose your tax free status. And we could dramatically lower education costs. And then finally we need massive, massive antitrust. Big chicken, big ag, big streaming. Now Netflix should not be allowed to buy HBO. The streamers have increased their prices 13% over the last 12 months as that industry is consolidating. It's pretty simple. And if you have more competition, you have a reverse of the rivers of the last 40 years which have leaked power, leverage and economic value from consumers and workers and labor to shareholders. The rivers need to reverse for a little bit. So if we're really gonna have an adult conversation around affordability, let's have an adult conversation. The problem is it's boring shit that will take years, if not decades. And the Democrats don't seem to have the firepower or the intellectual honesty to talk about this shit. And Republicans wanna propose programs that are totally inflationary. Anyways, that's my TED Talk.

[A]

Well, I'm glad that I came to your TED Talk. No, it's a point of frustration because. And we were just talking about this with Senator Gallego's interview is up on our YouTube channel, which you should go and check it out and subscribe obviously. But that we're just band aiding everything all the time versus really latching on to a pro growth innovative agenda where we say we're not just gonna clean up the mess because cleaning up the mess is actually still messy. Like the, the baseline level, like with Obamacare, which I think is the most obvious answer to all of this. Like, Obamacare needs help. You need an extension of the ACA subsidies so people's premiums don't go up 400% or whatever starting January 1st. But like, the program itself is a problem. I wanted to ask you though, about, you know, I'm sure you saw that we got no jobs report, no GDP report, and now no inflation report. So we're never going to see a number out of this government again. The ADP numbers came out negative. 32,000 jobs lost. Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs. Joe Kernan was going crazy about that on CNBC. But what is the impact of not having the official numbers on the economy and also investment from abroad or how the global economy works? Because I understand, like from a political level, like, you know what that means. And it clearly shows that they're hiding something and it's something to harp on. But what are the real world implications of not having good data around what's going on in our economy?

[B]

When you're trying to land a 747, you're trying to land a, you know, a several hundred ton piece of equipment on a hard surface while flying at, you know, 170 miles an hour. And when you don't have data, as we don't, we're trying to land a $25 trillion economy on a hard surface. Without instruments, we don't know what's going on. And we've become China. Except China's smarter than us. They actually have data internally. They just don't want to release it publicly because they're worried it'll make the CCP look bad. This is what Russia does. Russia totally bastardizes and perverts its data and they can't plan their economy as well. So an absence of data is just again, this very dangerous sort of let's not trust the experts movement. Let's go to our Ouija boards and our horoscopes and our instincts and what makes us feel good and what gets the most likes on Instagram as opposed to actual fucking truth as evidenced by data. So this is incredibly damaging. We're flying blind. We don't know what the actual numbers are. The difference between America and China, though, is that there will be a bunch of private sector companies, companies that use different means of taking the temperature of the economy to come out with their own data streams. If I was starting business right now, I would probably get into the business of economic forecasting and fill this vacuum that used to be filled by these incredible economists at the Fed. But this is just stupid. This is just like Trotsky being erased from photos because we don't like what he represented. This makes it much more difficult to plan for the Fed to decide, for companies to decide what to do, what the right interest rate policy is, what the right economic policy is for voters to hold elected officials accountable. So this is just, oh, I don't like that. I have high blood pressure and I don't want anyone to not think that I'm healthy. So I'm gonna stop taking my blood pressure and just see what happens. This leads to an economy that's much more prone to stroke.

[A]

Yeah, well, that's kind of what happened with COVID Right. Everyone just stopped testing and it was like, oh, there's no more Covid. But you had it. It wasn't actually a common cold. I want to, before we move on to the next section, I want to get your take on the healthcare vote. There's going to be a vote on the ACA extensions. John Thune promised it. The Democrats are putting up a clean three year extension bill that is going to fail. There are some outspoken Republicans like Josh Hawley saying, you know, Republicans had better offer something. You have a couple proposals. Bernie Moreno and Susan Collins have a bill that has an income cap at 200k but also includes a two year extension of the Obamacare subsidies. Democrat Dick Durbin has said that he's interested in it, that he might want to change one or two provisions, but he's encouraged. Mike Krepo and Bill Cassidy have a bill. Senator Roger Marshall, also a Republican, has a bill. Those two don't seem to have the Obamacare subsidy extension. We have heard nothing from the House at this point of what they would offer. What do you think happens? It feels like we're just moving towards the Obamacare subsidies going away and people are going to be hit by those premium hikes.

[B]

I'm going to ask you for real insight into an on the ground domain expertise here because I don't have it, but I do have a Senator Thune story. I was in Nantucket and I met Senator Thune. I think that's the whitest thing I've ever said. I was in Nantucket and I met Senator Thune. He was walking out with his wife and I recognized him and I said, Senator Thune, thank you for your service. And he and his wife came over and introduced themselves to my family. He's very Handsome.

[A]

Oh my God. Right? It's overwhelming.

[B]

Very handsome, yeah. Very tall, very handsome. His wife is very attractive. They look like they should be in the White House. So I like him just for, just for those broad shoulders.

[A]

Aesthetically pleasing.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Politically displeasing.

[B]

Yeah. Very, very handsome. I don't.

[A]

But I have a similar story.

[B]

I'm a little bit encouraged that he's keeping to his word and bringing the vote up. But anyways, that's the extent of my knowledge.

[A]

So that he can vote against it. But yes, I don't think that he's a liar like a Mike Johnson. I don't think that. And usually I think.

I don't know if I'm gonna regret this because Mitch McConnell's a difficult way to gauge the quality of the character cuz he has let us down so many times. But I expect more from senators than I do of congresspeople and more often than not I get that. But I also have a Senator Thune story. I was at the rnc. It was my first day back from maternity leave, summer 2024 and he came right up to me. He was like waiting to do a Fox hit. And you know, we had a big, I think we did a remote segment for Prof. G. For the Prof. G. Pod before waging moderates was a thing from there. So you saw like, you know, we had desk space and everybody who's in the Fox orbit is walking around. It's hair and makeup, it's on air contributors, producers, tech directors, etc. He came right up to me and he said, you know, I wanted to say hello, you do such a great job. And I thought that that was so nice and not everybody behaves that way. There are Republicans who avoid me like the plague when they see me in a social situation and soon beelined and was delightful and also very, very handsome. I think that the premium hikes are going to go through. I think that it's just, it's like too little too late to be bringing up your bill. That's going to require some degree of negotiation, at least at the proverbial 11th hour. And that's really frustra to me. I'm glad that Dick Durbin is saying that he has, you know, interest in working negotiating about one of these bills. But ultimately Republicans have been trying to get to their goal of repealing and replacing Obamacare. As long as Obamacare has existed and still have never brought anything decent that speaks to the way that Americans want their healthcare delivered. Since they've been playing this game and it's gonna really suck. Putting my partisan political hat on could be a net advantage for Democrats because we'll get to own this issue that Republicans literally don't care about your health care. They're taking Medicaid away from millions of people with the big beautiful bill. Your premium spiked because of Republicans. And we were the ones that were, you know, trying to get the subsidies extended. But like always, I wish Washington just functioned better, but I'm gonna have to get over that.

[B]

Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

[A]

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[C]

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[B]

Welcome back. South Carolina Republican Nancy Mace is taking direct aim at her own party's leadership, accusing Speaker Mike Johnson and top GOP brass of signlining rank and file members, especially women. In a sharply worded New York Times op ed, May says Republicans are petrified of losing power, too timid to deliver for their base, and far less effective than Democrats. Democrats under Nancy Pelosi. She warns that unless the GOP starts governing boldly on the border, affordability, healthcare and public safety, they'll lose their majority and deservedly so. Jess, it's just so fucking ridiculous. If anything, they've been too bold, they've been reckless. Jess, what does this situation say about women in the gop?

[A]

I mean, too little, too late, right? There's no surprises in this. It's just that she's saying it out loud and in the pages of the New York Times, which is a very intentional place to put this op ed. It's not in the Journal, right. It's in like the Gray lady, right, which we wake up, you know, and immediately go over to check what's going on, pop on the daily, whatever it is. So obviously she meant to do it in this way. But you know, she's bucking leadership because she got pushed too far. That Epstein and Marjorie Taylor Greene is in this bucket as well. But also, you know, she's running for governor in South Carolina and you know, I think that she needs to show some sort of maverickism to her and that also she is interested in the business of governing because the crux of her piece and the argument that she's making is that it's this full bodied criticism of the way that Congress functions, that it's all about power and closed door jockeying if you're not in a position of power. So if you're just a rank and file congressperson, you know, you're a complete afterthought, if a thought at all. And she's been getting a front row seat to that. She doesn't really matter to leadership to Mike Johnson. There was a stat in there that only 5% of the bills introduced this year have seen a floor vote. They took months off. Right. Mike Johnson ran away from being at work because he didn't want to deal with the Epstein files and the discharge petition. And you know, they don't, they don't accomplish anything. It's going to be the biggest do nothing Congress in American history. I like that she shouted out Nancy Pelosi though, and how effective she is. Because I feel like around Pelosi's retirement that some Republicans obviously, you know, spoke to how good she was at doing the job, but not nearly enough, because you do know that they all respect what an amazing power broker she was and continues to be, even not in leadership. And Marjorie Taylor Greene, did you watch her own 60 minutes or see clips of it?

[B]

Yeah, I did. I felt like I was watching an arsonist lecture us on fire safety. I just think it's so ridiculous that she has the gumption to pretend to be a moderate. She's not doing it for any other reason than to try and stage a political comeback. I just can't wait for her to exit stage right, stage left, stage. Get the fuck off the stage. Good riddance.

[A]

So you liked it? I think that this, the numbers are always inflated when people get into these fantasy lands, being like, 20 Republicans are going to retire, you know, before the midterms. And I don't think it would get as high as that. But it does feel like there is a vibe shift going on where Donald Trump is already a lame duck. I mean, he still feels like he's wreaking incredible amounts of havoc, but still a lame duck. And if they're not bringing any legislation to the floor, if they essentially won't let people even work with Democrats, that it makes sense that Republicans are saying, like, what's the point in even sitting here? I should get a head start on my big consulting career or my K Street career, or spend some time with my grandkids rather than sit around and, you know, I don't think Hakeem Jeffries is going to become speaker of the House before the midterms. But it does feel like the right is in a bit of disarray.

[B]

There you go. All right. And also, just the one thing, I'm obsessed with these prediction markets. Kalshee says that there's a 65% chance that Johnson is out as speaker of the House before the midterms.

[A]

Oh, really?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That high?

[B]

Well, and these things are fascinating because they do leverage the wisdom of crowds and they have a tendency to be right or go where the odds are. But, yeah, 2/3 chance that, according to Kalsi, that Johnson is out as speaker of the House before the midterms. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

[A]

Foreign.

[C]

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[A]

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[B]

All right, welcome back. Before we go, the political spotlight in Texas has swung hard towards 2026, where an unexpected Democratic showdown is reshaping the state's marquee Senate race. Friend of the podcast James Talarico, the former schoolteacher turned to Austin state Legislature no first cross party appeal, is now facing off against Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, whose national profile and progressive firepower have vaulted her to the front of the field. The matchup emerged after a chaotic filing day that saw Colin Allred last cycle Senate nominee, abruptly exit the race and jump into a newly drawn House district, clearing the lane and effectively setting up a tall Rico Crockett duel. Early polling gives Crockett a plurality among likely Democratic voters, but some analysts argue Talarico may be the stronger general election contender in a state where Democrats haven't won statewide since 1994. Jess, your thoughts on this race and Crockett entering the race?

[A]

I wasn't thrilled about it, really. You know, it's different. A Senate race is always going to be nationalized versus a congressional race. But we just saw in that special election in Tennessee's 7th district that the Democrat who got within single digits in a Trump/22 district. It was still a massive over performance, but once that race became nationalized, I think the Democrat did worse. And Jasmine Crockett, who we would love to have on the podcast, I should know that we have, we've tried, we will continue to try, has an enormous national profile. And she's one of those people because she's so outspoken and she's so in the crosshairs with Trump and the administration and you know, right wing cable news pundits, etc. That I think there is a way to make the party seem more like a left wing caricature than kind of like moderate get shit done caucus. And that's. That causes more of an uphill battle. It takes more money to fight those races and it makes my life harder on the five, which is a problem. Now, I'm not saying this about necessarily her politics. I know people who know her very well. Apparently she's quite a moderate person. But, you know, watching her launch video, which was just her standing there for about 30 seconds listening to Donald Trump talk shit about her, and then she turns to face this camera and, you know, she's a beautiful woman. It's a stark image. And then she has this great grin at the end before it announces, you know, Crockett for Senate, I found myself thinking, like, where is Texas mentioned in this? What about Texas issues? What about your story, you know, your civil rights attorney? Like, tell us who you are and why you're fighting for this community. Like, this is the affordability election. Like, let's talk about what's happened to everyday tax sense, right? Like, let's talk about what's going on on the border, whatever it is. And that to me just sent up this flare that we are about to have like an ugly Donald Trump centric race. And it feels like the opportunity is to put your head down and fight for the people that have been let down by that guy and are open to the idea of somebody else swooping in to help make their lives better. So what are your thoughts?

[B]

I've often said that the war between Iraq and Iran or the war between Musk and Trump, that I hope the Bullets win. And this is the exact opposite of that. I love both these people. I think Talarico's ability to incorporate faith into public policy is just really elegant and powerful. And I say that as an atheist. Representative Crockett is a hero of mine. I think she's fantastic. I just think she's courageous, compelling, unafraid, smart. I just think she's outstanding. And I Gave Talarico some money. I'm gonna give Crockett some money. By the way, one of the things I love about this podcast is it makes. It's a chance for me to both virtue signal and be very affectionate.

[A]

Well, you don't have other platforms to do that either, so just this one.

[B]

Trust me, the virtue signaling knows no win, Jesse. But anyone from the Crockett campaign, I've already given money to Talarico. Anyone from the Crockett campaign, reach out to me. I'm going to give you some money. And I just love both these candidates. And it's sort of. I guess it makes no sense. I'm giving money to both. It's like that Larry David show where.

[A]

He finds you're encouraging both your Democratic children.

[B]

There you go. But young people, I want to bring more attention to young rising stars in the Democratic Party. I absolutely love both of them. I would personally, you might argue that Talaria would do better in a general. I think she's just a force. And I would love to see. I would just love to see her as a senator from Texas. I think that would send such a wonderful signal. Also, I think Texas is conservative, is as conservative as people think. But having said that, I only go to south by Southwest.

[A]

That's the bigger question here. Like, we have spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to turn Texas blue and failed miserably. And I don't know if Colin Allred, who's now going to run for a congressional seat, and that's going to be an ugly primary because he is, you know, Texas's map, the newly redrawn, the cheater map, was upheld by the Supreme Court. So everything has gotten scrambled. So Jasmine Crockett, who's usually in a very blue, safe Dallas seat, I think she won by a 69.8% margin or something like that, you know, was going to have her seat messed with. Colin Allred is now jumping into the 33rd. Someone named Julie Johnson is in there. I mean, she had a pretty fierce statement when Allred announced this. She said women should never be treated as placeholders for men who fail to advance. You know, it is going to be ugly in Texas as people are jockeying to find a seat for themselves. And, you know, I think that Crockett is going to show off, like, fight and grit. That I think is really important for the party. I just want to be very careful about the territory that you're running in. You know, Texas is not a blue place. It's like on an amazing day, it's purplish. Right. And it's usually red and on the right.

[B]

Fair comment on the right.

[A]

They're having a bruising primary, too. So John Cornyn, who's like the normie senator, is being challenged by the AG Ken Paxton, who, you know, he was impeached. The Senate didn't, you know, voted to acquit him. Bribery, an affair. Like his wife putting that all out there. That he's a cheater, cheater, pumpkin eater. And then Wes Hunt is also in that primary. And looking at the reactions from the Republican side about how excited they were that Crockett was getting in always sends up a bit of a flare. Now they were gonna say that no matter what. And who knows what it looks like in 26. Maybe, you know, the bold, loud, progressive is the way forward. But I'm a little scared.

[B]

I feel like we need a tiebreaker here, where I think you're slightly more towards Tyler Rico as the pollster in you comes out. And the pragmatist, which is usually my role, and I'm a little bit. I'm a little bit more like you fall in love. The world is what we make of it. And we need courageous young, more courageous young women in the Senate. Let's bring in our producer, David. David, you're the tiebreaker. What do you think? I love Crockett. I think she's one of the best voices the Democratic Party has. But that announcement video was not affordability, focus, which is the whole game.

[A]

Yeah, but it's going to be good. I mean, competition is good. Talarico said that, you know, like that he welcomes her into the race. We'll treat her with the utmost respect. The primary, I think, is March 3rd. So this isn't going to go on forever by any means. But you always have to keep in mind. And yes, pragmatist, pollster, all of it. The primary electorate is different than the general electorate. And I hope that AOC was asked about Crockett getting in. And she said something like, we've got to run the right people in the right races. Which a. You go, girl, AOC that you're looking towards higher office. Right. And the way to talk about these things. But it is the most important lesson that we're even learning in 2025. Mom Donnie for New York City. Abigail Spanberger for Virginia. Mikey Sherrill for New Jersey. Like all of the Virginia House of Delegates folks that Don Scott, the speaker, got in order. It's all the right person for the right race. We wanna win the big one. You don't wanna just win a primary like you wanna win a general.

[B]

Well, I would offer that if and when you and I disagree, that the good money is to defer to you. Cause you. You kind of do this for a living, right? Polling, I mean.

[A]

Kind of.

[B]

Yeah. I just. I hate that. I just. It would be like watching your parents fight to see these two in a primer against each other. I think they're both so good, but.

[A]

But it'll be interesting to see them up against each other. I mean, you might feel differently. Someone might steal your heart in a bigger way. But either way, I feel like all of the things that we talk about and all the people that we have on gives us a very positive outlook for the future of the party. You know, where it felt super bleak, like we got nobody. Like we got a lot of people.

[B]

These two are outstanding. Outstanding. I just.

[A]

You hear that?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Jasmine. Outstanding. Come on the show.

[B]

Yeah, come on the show. But first, have someone from your campaign call me because.

[A]

For money.

[B]

Yeah. Take my money, please. All right, before we go, if you're watching us on YouTube, make sure you hit subscribe. That's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to raging moderates. Have a good week, Jesse.

[A]

Yeah, you too. See you later.

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