The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

Summary

Raging Moderates: The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

Episode Release Date: November 5, 2024
Hosts: Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

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Introduction

In this pivotal episode of Raging Moderates, hosts Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov delve deep into the final week of the election campaign, dissecting the latest polling data, candidate performances, and strategic moves as Election Day approaches. The conversation is rich with insights, notable quotes, and a centrist analysis of the unfolding political landscape.

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Significant Iowa Polling Shake-Up

[01:54] Scott Galloway: "The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa."

Jessica Tarloff elaborates on the surprising results from renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer, revealing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in Iowa. This is a remarkable shift, especially considering Trump won Iowa by eight points in 2020.

[02:58] Jessica Tarloff: "Harris up 2 to 1 with seniors, with female seniors."

The Iowa poll indicates a substantial gender gap, with Harris particularly strong among women and senior voters. This shift suggests broader implications for other battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where similar demographic trends may influence outcomes.

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Gender and Senior Voter Influence

The conversation highlights the critical role of gender and senior voters in the current election dynamics. Harris's ability to connect with these groups, especially in light of recent policy implementations like Iowa's abortion ban, resonates strongly.

[02:03] Jessica Tarloff: "Harris is up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are, quote, independents."

This significant support among independent women and seniors underscores Harris's broad appeal beyond traditional party lines, positioning her favorably in key states.

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Trump's Declining Image and Campaign Missteps

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov discuss Trump's recent appearances, noting a perceived decline in his public persona. Trump's aging image and less robust performances contrast sharply with his usual presentation.

[10:02] Scott Galloway: "Trump, in that last rally, he looked a. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice."

This shift may be contributing to waning support, as voters prioritize vitality and leadership qualities in their candidates. Additionally, Trump's controversial campaign strategies and focus on fringe issues are seen as potential liabilities.

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RFK Jr.'s Campaign and Its Impact

The hosts reflect on RFK Jr.'s campaign, critiquing his stances on vaccines and health safety as out of step with mainstream views.

[14:28] Jessica Tarloff: "RFK Jr. S views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream."

Despite his charisma, RFK Jr.'s positions may alienate moderate voters, potentially benefiting Harris by consolidating the Democratic base against a less conventional opponent.

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SNL Sketch and Media Influence

Jessica praises the Saturday Night Live sketch featuring Kamala Harris, which effectively humanizes and likens her to other political figures, enhancing her likability.

[11:48] Jessica Tarloff: "I thought she was so charming."

Such media portrayals play a crucial role in shaping public perception, making Harris appear relatable and likable to a broader audience.

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Legal Challenges and Election Integrity

As Election Day approaches, the discussion turns to the anticipated legal battles over vote counts and election integrity.

[29:27] Jessica Tarloff: "The Republicans were saying that it was illegal, and they were brought in front of the judge."

Both campaigns are preparing for potential lawsuits, with Democrats holding the advantage due to more robust legal teams. The hosts express concern over the erosion of trust in electoral institutions, emphasizing the dangerous implications of widespread misinformation.

[32:15] Scott Galloway: "It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country."

This erosion of trust poses significant risks to the democratic process, highlighting the need for reaffirming institutional integrity.

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Battleground States and Final Predictions

Scott and Jessica analyze the battleground states, weighing the latest poll data and ground game efforts. They focus on states like Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where outcomes are still uncertain.

[38:37] Jessica Tarloff: "I predict, nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins."

Both hosts lean towards a decisive victory for Harris, citing strong organizational efforts, demographic shifts favoring Democrats, and Trump's diminishing appeal as key factors. They also discuss the potential for a split government, which could result in a House controlled by Democrats and a Senate held by Republicans.

[39:47] Scott Galloway: "I agree with you. Both the Senate and the House... it's going to be a split government."

This prediction underscores the complexity of the electoral landscape, where no single party may gain complete control, impacting legislative productivity and governance.

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Scott and Jessica emphasize the importance of voter turnout, particularly among women and younger demographics, which they believe will steer the election in Harris's favor.

[43:42] Jessica Tarloff: "I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up."

They call for a balanced approach post-election, advocating for inclusive politics that bridge gender and ideological divides. The episode concludes with a hopeful outlook on the power of organized, motivated voters to shape the nation's future.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Scott Galloway [01:25]: "But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion Typically pro-life people and what people think of as health care."

• Jessica Tarloff [02:58]: "Harris is up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are, quote, independents."

• Scott Galloway [10:02]: "Trump, in that last rally, he looked a. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice."

• Jessica Tarloff [14:28]: "RFK Jr.' S views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream."

• Scott Galloway [29:27]: "It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country."

• Jessica Tarloff [38:37]: "I predict, nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins."

• Jessica Tarloff [43:42]: "I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up."

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov's analysis in the final stretch of the election, offering listeners a detailed overview of the key discussions, insights, and predictions shaping this critical moment in American politics.

Transcript

[Scott Galloway]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like Uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more stripe make progress welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.

[Jessica Tarloff]

And I'm Jessica Tarleth.

[Scott Galloway]

How are you Jess?

[Jessica Tarloff]

I'm really good. How are you?

[Scott Galloway]

I don't believe you. And two, no, it's true.

[Jessica Tarloff]

My algorithm doesn't hate me anymore. I'm like coconut pilled again. I'm having the best time. I don't know, I'm so glad Elon just wants to spare me or what. But no, it's genuine.

[Scott Galloway]

So I can't tell if this election, that I'm now older and wiser in this election really is that consequential and there's real reason to be stressed or I'm just older and stressed over anything. And I found the only thing that helps is I listen to 80s music that plays over like Peanuts cartoons.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Okay.

[Scott Galloway]

That really calms me down, especially the Cure and all the Peanuts characters dancing. That brings me a moment of calm. Also, the Traveling Wilbury. Strangely enough, their music seems to calm me. Okay. In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing what the campaign trail looked like during the final week, what to watch out for on election night. And of course, we'll wrap up with our final predictions. The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

And actually I'm going to let you take this because you're the pollster and you're so much better at this than me. But explain for the listeners why that is significant and what it is.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Well, I wouldn't say that I'm better at it than you and I'm interested in your thoughts because I feel like I spend too much time cross tab diving or whatever it's called. But J. Ann Selzer, who is the pollster there in Iowa, is widely considered one of the top pollsters in the country, certainly the top one in Iowa and probably the top one in the country for most people. And I think there is going to be, depending on the outcome Tuesday Night, there is going to be another reckoning with the polling industry that seems to have been, quote, unquote, hurting all of these polls. Like, no one wants to be an outlier in any way. So they're just telling us in, like, 50 different languages, this thing is really tight. This thing is tied. Maybe it's one point advantage this way, one point the other way. And Ann Selzer comes out with her final Iowa poll that has Kamala Harris up three in Iowa.

[Scott Galloway]

Iowa.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah, in Iowa. So Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by eight points. So this is a significant swing. And I think he was up like 18 on Biden before Biden left the race, which is not that surprising because a lot of people felt like Biden should have left the race. So maybe then you take it down to, in actuality, he would be, like, up 8 to 10, something that you would feel is more normal. But this is a complete earthquake in the polling conversation. A lot of people want to dismiss it, but most of the pollsters and commentators who know what they're talking about are looking at this as a harbinger of a trend. So even if Donald Trump wins by five points, let's say she's eight points off on this, that's still a really shitty result for Donald Trump and what he needs in all of this. And it would be indicative of the fact that Harris should be winning Wisconsin and Michigan and probably Pennsylvania. And the big underlying story in the poll was the gender gap, which we've been talking about a lot. Harris up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are, quote, unquote, independents. But the thing that was blowing everyone's mind is the granny gap. So Harris is up 2 to 1 with seniors, with female seniors. And she did a ton of interviews over the weekend, and she was on with Tim Miller on the Bulwark podcast. And I would really recommend everyone listen to it if you're interested in getting to know her a little bit better and hearing a deeper dive into the methodology. But she was talking about how Iowa's abortion ban came into effect. So it was litigated through the courts, and it actually was implemented over the summer. So this is fresh in people's minds. She said these older women are not only looking at a world where their daughters and their granddaughters are less free than they were, which, frankly, pisses anyone off. Right. No matter what the subject is, you know, abortion, a healthcare issue or otherwise. But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion Typically pro life people and what people think of as health care. And now that we live in a world where you can have a miscarriage and be denied care for that, people are saying, like, how dare you lump this in with abortion. And Iowa has this very restrictive ban that, that came into effect just a few months ago. And there are other factors that could be playing into this, like tariffs have hurt farmers really hard. It started under Trump and frankly did continue under Biden, the soybean farm in particular. And one kind of wild card in this that I was wondering if you thought had any impact is Tim Walls. Because you would think that Tim Walls would be someone that was very resonant with an Iowa voting base and if they thought maybe Kamala was a San Francisco lefty, that Walls would have felt like a moderating factor in all of this. But net net, my mind is blown. And what was really interesting, for those who want to dismiss it, and I brought it up yesterday, I was on Fox a couple times on Sunday. We did normal programming in the lead up to the election. There was a poll out that Trump is only up 5 in Kansas, only up 3 in Ohio. And in Nebraska's second congressional district, you know how there's one vote in Nebraska that is separate? Kamala's up 12, and I believe Biden only won it by seven or eight. So that speaks to a regional shift versus just Ann Selzer is out over her skis. What do you think about all of the things that I said?

[Scott Galloway]

So, first off, I think there's more than a kernel, a bushel of truth in everything you believe. And that I believe the issue is we are absolutely cherry picking data that makes us feel better about ourselves or better about our views.

[Jessica Tarloff]

It's our show.

[Scott Galloway]

That's right. It's confirmation. Confirmation bias gone crazy. So it wasn't the Iowa poll. It was that this woman, Ann Selzer, who is from the heartland, she doesn't live in LA or New York and has this annoying habit of being remarkably correct with her polls, arguably the best pollster in the nation. And doesn't.

[Jessica Tarloff]

And she caught Obama's rise and Trump's rise.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. And doesn't appear to have a bias. Appears to be doing what she's supposed to be doing. And for Harris to be up 3 or 4 in A, that would be like if all of a sudden a poll came out in Florida and showed Harris up by almost outside the margin of error. And if this in any way is a harbinger of what's going on, it's Just exceptionally good news. And then I look at Holly Market. Yeah, I was going to. And I, I'm still trying to. I'm thinking about doing it today, but I want to make Wednesday morning either really good or really bad for me. So I am going to wager a significant amount of money for me on Harris. One, because I do think she's going to win. But two, supposedly, I know a lot of media is looking at this thing, and I like the idea of giving her a little bit of a bump. And also, I think I told you this, she is on a risk adjusted basis, just a great bet right now. Because if you assume it's a coin flip right now, the odds are 39.6% likelihood that she wins. Meaning to get a million dollars back, you have to bet $396,000. Now, if I'd had bigger balls last week and I'd done this last week when I said I was going to do it, I would have only needed to wager 333,000 and I would have got three to one. I would have got a million bucks back. Now, her odds have dramatically increased on polymarket, which I think has an underlying bias because the people who are likely going to go on an online gambling site are younger and more male. That is more Trump. But the fact that even these sites are seeing momentum with her, Iowa, is big. And the thing that we talked about, Tony Hinchcliffe, the thing you mentioned, I heard that we have 300,000 people in swing states doing what I love the term used souls to polls, helping people get to the ballot box and that they have somewhere between 30 and 50,000. So we're running somewhere between 6 and 10 to 1 in terms of actual ground game in these swing states. And then, and I mentioned this last time, my friend Whitney Tilson says all of his friends on the ground are saying that the Latino vote is more energized. The thing you haven't mentioned that I think is going to play a role is in not one, not even two, but three of the most recent Trump appearances. It feels as if in the last three months, he has aged 10 years. The last one I saw of him, he had that. When I saw. Remember when Joe Biden popped up to do the stupid garbage comment? First off, I'm like, oh, wait, I forgot, Joe's still here. And he. It was if he was sending a video to his grandkids as he was going into hospice, I'm like, Jesus Christ, this guy's dying.

[Jessica Tarloff]

We made the right decision.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, unfortunately, we made it six months too late in my view. But anyways. Or maybe six months too late. But Trump, in that last rally, he looked a. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice. Maybe he's just exhausted. I don't know. It doesn't matter. But he has always presented himself as much more robust. Fairly, he comes across as more robust as Biden. But the last few times I've seen him speak has America has basically said, we'll take obnoxious, we'll take offensive, we'll take whatever it is. Someone whose policies we won't agree with on the Biden side, what we will not tolerate is old and weak. That's it. That's what kicked Biden out of the race, came across as old and weak. It feels like the momentum huge through the debate and the momentum flipped back to Trump dramatically over the ensuing three weeks. And I would argue in the last 96 hours, maybe the last five days, it feels like the momentum has swung back substantially towards Harris. And I can't tell if the only people I know knocking on doors are Harris people reporting back positive news that I want to hear and that my algorithm is just serving me the shit I want to see. I went on Diary of a CEO with Stephen Bartlett, who's the biggest podcaster in the UK and just this incredibly impressive young man to talk about the election and the comments. It was just 10 to 1 people railing against me. You know, the same comments they give to us. These people are not moderates. Da, da, da. The last week has been all Kamala. Also even. Did you see the SNL sketch?

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah, I thought she was so charming.

[Scott Galloway]

And funny and kudos to them. Kudos to the writers who figured. I mean, these people naturally aren't that funny themselves. Some of them are. I thought actually Obama. Obama had decent instincts around humor, but the writers, you get the sense, spoiler alert, that SNL writers are probably pretty regressive and that they sat down and they said, all right, this shit is serious. We have got to make her likable, intelligent, and it's got to be funny, yet poignant. And they just nailed it. I mean, they just nailed it. She came across as likable, funny, poking fun at herself, but not enough. Well, depositioning Trump and Keeb, Kamala and Kerry. Anila, I mean it.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Just give me your Pamela.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh my gosh. That was. It was, it was wonderful. I keep hearing about the ground game. Every time I see him, I think, wow, he looks older and older and older.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah, I think the SNL moment was definitely worth the FCC violation. So NBC had to give Trump, I think like a minute and a half commercial during a car race yesterday or something like that. I don't think they care.

[Scott Galloway]

Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Welcome back. We, of course had a great guest because I believe you know him or friends with them. We had Charlamagne tha God on. Let's hear a quick clip from that appearance with Charlamagne tha God. Like, you know how many people I run into every day who literally have not heard 95% of the crazy rhetoric that has come out of come out of Trump's mouth or come out of people in his camp's mouth. And so it's like you should keep putting that in people's face to let folks know what he's saying, what he's planning to do. And you should keep drilling home your message, your plan for the economy. Like, you know, especially her. Cause she's only been running for a hundred, a hundred days. So to find the rest of that interview, type in raging moderates wherever you get your podcast and hit follow. We have more election coverage coming out, so please subscribe so you don't miss an episode. All right, enough of the mid pod ad, Jess. Let's get on with the show. So both campaigns have been crisscrossing across battleground states. We had Harris wrapping up her message on the Ellipse and appearing on snl. Biden making a gaffe that Republicans jumped all over. Trump dressing up on Halloween as a garbage truck driver. And RFK Jr. Declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw again as yet another unforced error. What other moments, Are there any other moments than these that stand out to you? And do any of these moments, do you think make a difference?

[Jessica Tarloff]

I mean, those were the big ones. Obviously, if you don't want to get into the minutiae of the specific things that he said at a rally, the Yana Santa Takounmpo lines. I do think that the prominent role of RFK in health and safety is something that low key matters a lot to people. And I think that because they are the island of misfit toys, which I know is how you describe your business as.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, my staff, not my business, my staff.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Your staff.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Well, I don't see them that way, by the way they seem.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, you don't know them. You don't know them. It's like the functional family. The functional families, you know, are the dysfunctional ones. I always say in our reviews that are we, this person isn't doing this well. And I'm like, if they could do this well, they'd be working at Google, not for you here at this Joey Bag of Donuts podcast. Anyways, love my staff. Love my staff. Go ahead.

[Jessica Tarloff]

So because you have this wild cast of characters and you can't get a lot of the people that you would want to be out there, you end up with a showcase that has Dana White, Hulk Hogan, RFK Jr Jr Tulsi Gabbard, ET cetera. And I think for a certain piece of the base, that's really resonant. But RFK Jr for a normal person is really like anathema, you know, because he's not even representing a departure from the Democratic Party that I think is resonant with a lot of people. The reasons that it happened, for instance, because he holds these kinds of beliefs about health, because of what a terrible person he has been morally himself in terms of what he put his wife, Former wife through and ended up resulting in her suicide. And just the weird stuff, right? Like having a whale head strapped to the top of his station wagon and dead bear cubs in Central park, et cetera. And I think that, you know, Trump this time around, can't say I'll be surrounded by great people because 40 out of 44 cabinet secretaries have said that they're not for Trump anymore. So then you think, okay, well, maybe there's this other layer of like, not the worst people in the world, but kind of, okay, people that might go into the administration and listen, people love a fancy title. I'm sure he will be able to get some good people from the business community to go work for him. People who have served the country and feel that this is their patriotic duty. But RFK Jr. S views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream. I mean, did you see the latest one that he wants to remove fluoride from the water?

[Scott Galloway]

Drinking water says it causes cancer.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah, yeah. Not only does it does water turn frogs trans or something like that. Now we want to get fluoride out of our water. And Tim Scott was being interviewed, the senator from South Carolina, and he was asked about this and he tried to do the usual dance of like, oh, you know, I don't know, I don't know what you're talking about, blah, blah, blah. And it turns out that he had co sponsored a bill to make sure that there was fluoride and water in underserved communities in 2018. Because guess what? Fluoride is really important. You know, I take a two and a half year old to the dentist there. They start talking to you about fluoride at one. Right. And I think that it will really hurt Trump's candidacy to have that be someone that we can identify as a harbinger of, quote, unquote, professionalism that he would have in there. And then to add to it that he would also be in charge of women's health, which is frightening to have someone who's so, first of all disrespectful towards women anyway. But this weird pro life Democrat sometimes. He used to be pro choice, I guess he says that he's pro life now, but someone who has never taken any interest in this issue whatsoever or moderated the party on it since he switched over.

[Scott Galloway]

I thought that was another tactical error. I thought they should. He should have said, we're going to put him on something around the environment in a corner. Well, he's actually.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Actually, yes. He believes in climate change. He has some good.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, he's good around the environment. It would have softened his position. I forget who was the. Who was the guest when you and I were panelists on Bill Maher together, which is how we met, how I fell in love with Jess Tarloff. What. Who was our guest? Who was the third person or the person?

[Jessica Tarloff]

It was Cuomo and Melissa DeRosa.

[Scott Galloway]

Oh, and then you bailed for the interview.

[Jessica Tarloff]

It was Wen Maher. It's still only two people. It was like post Covid. So it was only us.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, but it's still only two. That was easily like the most impossible. I had to sit around and talk about post Covid with the guy who. With Cuomo as he started his apology tour. That was the most uncomfortable TV I think I've ever. And you got to bail because whatever. Fox doesn't want it on CNN.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Anyway, it's Melissa DeRosa, who was. Who worked for Cuomo as the other person. Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

Who worked for him. I didn't. I didn't understand the whole thing.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Anyway, they were promoting a book and it was a thing.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. And I said, oh. Anyways. But I met. I met RFK Jr. Backstage. He's very handsome, he's very charming. He's very likable. And he started texting, can I come on your pod? And I thought, well, yeah, sure, why not? And I checked with the team and the team was a resounding no, we're not going to platform this guy. And I think they made that. You know, my island here is the wisdom of crowds. It's always good for me to check in because occasionally or actually quite frequently, they get it right and I get it wrong. And he seems like he's just gotten crazier. And the interesting thing, the reason I bring it up, is that he was the guest. He did the long form interview up front. And I thought Bill Maher tried to be as kind as possible, but asked hard questions and tore him limb from limb. Just made him look like an idiot, in my opinion. Just pointed out inconsistencies left and right. And then RFK Jr. You know, he's supposed to come out for the conversation afterwards. He didn't come out. He refused to come out. Really?

[Jessica Tarloff]

Oh, I didn't know that.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, he didn't come out. He was supposed to come out and.

[Jessica Tarloff]

I was like, so he's a baby on top of it.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, his comms person. And what's interesting is just a couple days ago I got a text message from his comms person saying we need to speak. And I'm like, I immediately text her back, what's happened? I haven't heard back from her, but I can't imagine. I have no idea what they want from me. Anyways, this is again another absolutely unforced error. Unforced error. So they're pivoting through the swing states here. Do you think there's anything if you're advising them? I mean, this is pretty much it. This is go time, right?

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah. I mean, it's election day.

[Scott Galloway]

If you were advising either the candidates, anything they should do tomorrow to put a cherry on the top or is it kind of like the ball is out of their hands?

[Jessica Tarloff]

I mean, I think for Trump, he is facing, as you said, a rally scene that is not tip top. You know, it's emptier, people are less engaged and he, he is descending a bit. And if he can muster a few lines of unity or even re centering around his economic message, I mean, that has been the big problem here. She has totally matched him in terms of who's best to handle the economy because he won't talk about anything normal. Right. He's advertising on anti trans issues and he's giving no specifics on his economic plan anyway when he does talk about it. So I would say to him, if you could do all of your rallies and really be talking about the economy, that would be best for you. For Kamala, you know, she can only do with what has been working for her staying on message. And I did love that line that she had to Charlemagne when she did the town hall with him where he said, you know, there are people who say, you're relentlessly on message. You stick to your script. You, you can't weave at all, or whatever. And she said, I say, you're welcome. That's my response to you. You know, you want somebody that understands why they're there, they're there to help the American people. These are the ways that I'm going to do it. So I wanted her to stick to that message. But I do love when she, first of all, like, genuinely asks people for their vote. I have found it to be one of her more compelling sides where she says, I'm taking nothing for granted and I'm here asking for your vote, and I want more. As many of those human moments as possible in the last few hours of all of this, where she says, I know that we are building a coalition of people who are strange bedfellows. You know, that we have these Republicans like you have Liz Cheney and AOC backing the same ticket. That's rare. And that she will be a president for all Americans and that her cabinet will reflect that and that she is not too prideful to change the way that she thinks about things and to take advice from people that she wouldn't typically do so. And I want to hear that kind of stuff because I think people are looking for the reassurance that if they've gone out on a limb, like if you are a Republican in Iowa that is going to end up with a Kamala Harris presidency, you have gone out on a limb to do that. And she really needs to continue talking about how she's going to meet them in the middle and respects what they've done.

[Scott Galloway]

Before we break, just a quick review of the most recent New York Times Siena College poll in Nevada. The poll or the New York Times stand up poll has Harris up by 3. In North Carolina, Harris up by 2. Wisconsin, Harris up by 2. Georgia Harris up by 1. Pennsylvania tied. Michigan tied. Arizona. Trump up by 4. The way I read this, and maybe I don't have the math correctly, but then doesn't it all come down to Pennsylvania? I guess if.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah, I think it always. But she has more. I mean, what they're emphasizing is she has more paths than he does. Like, the Sunbelt is still in play for her and he needs Pennsylvania, but it has to go through the Georgia, North Carolina path, and he's having to spend way more time in North Carolina than he would have hoped. My takeaway from the New York Times Sienna poll, what I was excited to see back to normal levels of Democratic support with black voters and Latino voters. And, you know, the gender gap there. I think it was the gender gap they were saying was the least in Pennsylvania, which surprised me. We'll see how it all bears out. But, you know, I'm still concerned about minority support for the Democratic candidate. And one other thing that popped up during the week. I don't know if you caught this. Gallup released a survey around enthusiasm, and Democrats are right now more enthusiastic than they were in 2008 with Obama and 10 points more enthusiastic with than Republicans. Have you been feeling that? I. It honestly surprised me.

[Scott Galloway]

It's so hard because I live in London and I'm in a bit of a bubble around my social media algorithm and the people I talk to are. So I shouldn't say everyone. I have a lot of friends in la. A lot of my Jewish friends are very, I don't want to say pro Trump, but squarely Trump. And there's just no getting around it, though. I'm getting emails with like, check out this data. Everyone's sort of. People were feeling almost a little bit. The way I would describe it is bereft about a week and a half, two weeks ago. And people are starting to get their mojo back. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Welcome back. Let's switch gears to the battleground states. Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina might get called fairly quickly, but we could be waiting for a while for Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially if it's a close race. Just this gets a little bit to predictions. Do you think there's any potential surprises here? Obviously, Iowa would be a big effing surprise. Is there any. My gut is one way or the other, we're gonna have two or three states pop up on the screen with Steve Kornacki or Bill Hemmer, who, by the way, is a lovely guy. I met him.

[Jessica Tarloff]

He's in the Hamptons.

[Scott Galloway]

He's a very nice man. Very handsome, too.

[Jessica Tarloff]

He's a big Sag harbor guy. Very, very handsome. I mean, I hope HR is not listening. I didn't mean it that way, but he's a handsome.

[Scott Galloway]

You know what? It's okay if you objectify what I've learned. Let me give you a little tip as someone who was an HR nightmare. It's okay to objectify people. As long as you objectify men, then it's okay. Anyways, I've heard that Bill Hemmer is a tall drink of lemonade. So what. What states do you think might be surprises here? One way or the Other obviously there's Iowa. That would be a shocker. Any surprise, Any states that are traditionally or Harris thinks she has in the bag that could potentially pop up Trump?

[Jessica Tarloff]

I don't think so. You know, obviously if North Carolina, Georgia are going in Harris's direction, then we know it's a big night in her favor. Trump really needs to hold those. What I'm still curious about is that inefficient vote if he's running up the tally in New York and Florida. I mean, we actually haven't talked about Florida a lot. If Harris is performing well in Florida, that will also be a harbinger of, of something to come. And obviously they have a huge Latino and Puerto Rican specifically population there. But if Trump is banking votes in New York, Florida, California, these places he's been going, I mean, he was in New Mexico. All of this is so bizarre if you're actually being strategic about it. And I get it, it's fun to win the popular vote. Republicans should try it sometime. I think they've only done it once in the last eight elections. But that will be, it'll a be interesting if it ends up that Republicans somehow win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. But it will be a very poor reflection on the electoral strategy that Susie Wiles, who's very supposedly very, very good at her job, has taken with all of this. And I get that he's hard to control and he wants a rally at MSG and he wants to go to Coachella, but that's something that I'll be looking for. And also his effect down ballot because New York should decide control of the House. And we talked about those close congressional races last week on the podcast. You know, Trump is not a lift for most of these people that are in these tight races. So inefficient vote is what is fascinating me currently.

[Scott Galloway]

One thing that's clear, this race is expected to be the most contested in history. Trump is already toying with the public's trust in the results. Both campaigns have teams of lawyers prepped and ready to go. Lawsuits have been filed for weeks now, and we could be seeing legal fights over results for months if the margins are thin. There are even zombie lawsuits, cases that Trump could bring back if there's a chance they might shift the vote. What do you make of all these legal challenges, Jess? Have you spoken to many of these lawyers? How do you see them unfolding? Does one side have an edge over the other?

[Jessica Tarloff]

Well, the Democrats have the edge and the Republicans even openly talk about that. Mark Elias who is our top elections lawyer. And you can see him. He goes on MSNBC pretty regularly, is a big target. And the Republicans just talk about him. They're like, we didn't have a mark Elias in 2020, and I don't think they have one guy. But they certainly have a better operation this time around. But they're throwing everything they can at the wall and seeing what sticks. I mean, part of the problem is the way that what they are perceiving or what they are frankly lying about as being unfair election practices are getting amplified on social media. And either if they are getting community noted or not, it's not making a difference to people. And they're running with this argument. Like, there was this whole thing about that a bunch of ballots were just getting dropped off by this random person outside the door. I think it was in Allegheny county in Pennsylvania. And it turns out that it was a postmaster that was doing his job. Or they went after Bucks county because they were saying it was election interference, that there were long lines. No, baby, sometimes there's just long lines, right? Like, a lot of people showed up to vote and they were understaffed. And in Georgia, they had to come into the courtroom to defend this. There were more boxes for dropping off mail ballots you can mail your ballot in, or you could put it in a drop box, which a lot of people like to do. Like my sister in California. That's how they vote, that they go and drop off their mail ballot in person. And there were, I think, four new drop boxes that were added. And the Republicans were saying that it was illegal, and they were brought in front of the judge. I think it was like 8am on Saturday morning, and the judge was like, what are you talking about? Like, everything has. And I'm not saying that it's impossible that there's some minor fraud somewhere, but the theme is always that Republicans want less people to be able to vote, and they hide behind this facade of election integrity. But we know that election integrity in 2020 looked like calling up Brad Raffensperger and threatening him, you know, trying to stop the count in Arizona and continue the count in Pennsylvania. And it's really so disheartening. And I've been reading a lot of articles about former Trumpers and what turned them off. And an interesting one, actually, or part of it has been that he went too left on abortion, which I never expected to see. I would think, you know, getting rid of Roe v. Wade would have been this huge miracle, but they feel that he's too left on It. But a lot of it is about this disrespect for the electoral process and not being able to take a w.

[Scott Galloway]

It's more than a disrespect for the electoral process. It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country. A country is a series of structures, protocols, legal entities that create an infrastructure that can impose taxes, uphold laws, prosecute, defend those laws, and set up an operating system, in this instance, 50 different operating systems, 50 different protocols to try and create the diversity around the process, to maintain election integrity, such that no one system can be hacked. And when Governor DeSantis spends $3 million for, quote, unquote, election integrity. That is so cynical. There's no reason that Florida needs to spend $3 million on what are. It's like 60 contested votes. And I have a close friend who I went to college with, who I would describe as a reasonable, intelligent guy, in his entire Instagram reels the last few days has been what to do if you're worried about your vote being counted. And he's a pretty hardcore Trumper. And I called him and I said, you realize you're inciting violence? He goes, well, what do you mean by that? And I said, look, there's absolutely no evidence that there's anything more than 0.0001% of election fraud. Both Republicans and Democratic commissioners have done a great job having fidelity for the Constitution and their responsibility. There are few processes that involve humans that have had the same integrity as our elections. And basically, the last time we had kind of a split decision, a Republican or a conservative Supreme Court justice said, okay, Bush is the president. And then, in what has become a very unusual move, Vice President Gore conceded the election, recognizing he didn't want to have violence, he didn't want to have a revolution, and all of this. We don't trust the cdc, we don't trust the American Pediatric Association. We don't trust the Secret Service when our guy gets shot at. We don't trust any of these institutions. The Fed. Jesus Christ, the Fed has put on a fucking masterclass here. But this notion that you can't trust institutions, you need to trust your emotions and your feelings and what you get on a social media feed that is purposely there to take you further to the left, further to the right and enrage you. So it's more than just a lack of trust in elections, but this, I mean, you just see, it's just so naked. If we win, it's democracy at work, and if we lose, it's election fraud and our institutions. And you can already see on these ridiculous social media feeds somehow laying the groundwork for cases. You know, someone burned a ballot box. Okay, I believe that. What on earth does that have to do with a conspiracy around election fraud? Someone lit a ballot box on fire. Okay, you win. Is there any evidence that that ballot box had more votes for Harris than for Trump? It's just. It's so. I mean, it's what the head of propaganda for the Kremlin said back in the days of Gorbachev, that this is how we win. We just flood the zone with misinformation. We make no one trust institutions, which is Latin for no one trusts America anymore. And we just overwhelm them with information left and right and just confuse the shit out of them. And they no longer believe in their government or in their country. But it is this lack of respect for our institutions especially. I think it went crazy in Covid. I think people were kind of mentally unwell and were so upset about what was going on, didn't know what to trust and said, oh, we can't trust the cdc. And when the American Pediatric association says there is no correlation between these vaccines that we can see and myocardia in teenage boys or enlarged hearts, no one wants to believe them because they know somebody whose kid had an arrhythmia. Okay, fine. But that doesn't, you know, that doesn't mean there's a there there. So I find all of this very dangerous. You know, it's just another example of there really is a double standard here. You can tell it's going to be. I mean, Carrie Lake sort of embodies this, right. That in Arizona voters. I just can't get over the fact that they decided to put her up. That is going to be my ointment. That is, if things go wrong for us tomorrow, I'm just going to watch the numbers come in over and over on the Gallegos Lake Senate contest because my understanding is things are probably going to go.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

Representative Gallego sway.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Kamala may not win Arizona. Reuben Gallego is going to win.

[Scott Galloway]

Split ticket, right? Yeah, that's probably going to be.

[Jessica Tarloff]

I mean, people. Yeah, people are doing it, but hopefully she can pull it out. Arizona looks tough, though, for Kamala right now.

[Scott Galloway]

And what do you think? Do you think there's any chance that the Supreme Court, if something ends up in the Supreme Court, that they'll impact the election?

[Jessica Tarloff]

I mean, I don't want to say no because the Supreme Court has been quite activist and activist in Trump's direction. Pretty sure that all of them don't want to have anything to do with this and that they'll try to keep it in lower courts as much as possible. But again, like, it has to be very normal. Polling errors could lead to huge wins on either side of this. And I continue, if I was a praying gal, I would pray for a decisive win most of all. And Trump actually this weekend for the first time acknowledged that he could lose. He said something like, yeah, I got, you know, we could lose, we shouldn't lose, but it could happen. And there was a report, I think, in Axios that Susie Wiles had put out a memo to the campaign that said, you know, we're optimistic, but no matter what happens, blah, blah, you know, blah, blah, blah. And that's a bit of a different tone from the usual Trump triumphalism. And I'm sure they still think that they're going to win. And again, it may happen. But even having a little glimpse into the fact that there is some understanding that it might not be a Trump victory is a tiny bit heartening for me at this moment.

[Scott Galloway]

Okay, Jess, this is it. It's go time. Your prediction and any nuance or any.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Wrinkle around your prediction, nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins. One thing that I had been actually feeling a little bit better about is there was some good polling for our, our friend John Tester in Montana. And that story about Ryan Sheehy, his opponent, who lied about getting shot in Afghanistan, who ended up, who did the shooting, it was in a parking lot in a national park, that that story has actually been breaking through to people. And I think that there's a lot of folks out there, especially in the age of Trump, that are looking for good people to put in office, that they feel that there's some baseline level of okay that they're going to be if you have ethical and morally sound folks in office. And John Tester is that. And so I'm a little bit more hopeful about that. Still feel that the Republicans are going to control the Senate, but was excited to see that. And I think the Democrats are going to take the House back. What about you?

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, I agree with you. Both the Senate and the House, the markets are predicting that regardless of who wins, it doesn't matter, that it'll be a split government and that the populace and the media are overestimating the impact one way or the other. And essentially that's what the market is saying, is that no one individual is going to have that Much power to get much done over the other because it'll be. Won't that be fun because it'll be a split government. My prediction is it's going to be actually a decisive win for Harris. All of the things I've seen breaking our way. The poll from Selcer in Iowa absolutely blew my mind. All of these self inflicted wounds. You mentioned the story about Tester. It just feels like all the atmospherics indicate whether it's on the ground reporting back from canvassing, whether it's the amount of money, the 10 to 1 people on the ground trying to turn out the vote. And again, I just might be in a bubble where I not only have a social media algorithm, but I have a friend algorithm and people are only sending me things that are going to make me feel better. But I was pretty honest, I think with myself in the two weeks leading up to the last four days, seven days ago, I was pretty convinced that the Edge was distinctly Trump. And then these videos of him which have been going around showing that he's just old. Even little stupid things like him trying to open a door and having a tough time. I feel like he's agent the garbage truck door. Yeah, the garbage. I feel like he's aged 10 years in the last three weeks even. This is this poly market thing. I'm becoming addicted. I'm like a kid trading crypto in just the time we've been on this pod, Jess, the likelihood, according to Polymarket, that Harris will win the presidency has gone from a low of 38.6% to a high of 43.2. And now it's back to 42.3. I mean, the market is just so volatile around this stuff. You can just feel the tension. But every piece of media I'm seeing points to more people turning out. And then I think this race will be remembered for a couple of things. One, if Harris loses, I think Biden is going to have some explaining to do, so to speak. I think people are just going to be furious at the Democratic Party and Biden and the people around him for not getting him to drop out sooner than how on earth did we not run away with this? And I do think that if he loses, the things they're going to remember here is that this was the podcast election. I think her going on Call Her Daddy and him going on Rogan were more kind of seminal in terms of identifying this new medium. And also I think this is. I hate it when people say, oh, this is the election of women or whatever. But having raised Boys, I just see the way we had a Halloween party for my son. The party was supposed to be at 9pm and the girls show up on time. They help clean up. Their costumes were perfect. They're just more organized. And I think you're just gonna see. I think women have a big issue here. And they're organized. I just think women are gonna show up because especially if you look at the demographics here, I think demographics are destiny. There's 12 million fewer people on the voter rolls cause they've died since 2016. There's 20 million new voters. And the 12 million that have died generally are older, whiter and more Republican. And the new voters, the 20 million new voters are generally younger, more non white, and I believe more progressive. And I think you're gonna see that women showed up here and we're just more organized across every age group and that leans Harris. So I'm predicting, I believe this is going to be Harris and it's going to be. And it's going to be decisive.

[Jessica Tarloff]

I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up. And I do hope that a consequence of this though, is not kind of brow beating men about the victory, but figuring out a better way forward to have a more balanced party where everyone feels included. Because young men have basically the same political beliefs as young women.

[Scott Galloway]

That's right.

[Jessica Tarloff]

They're just not being spoken to in a way that is resonant. And that's on us.

[Scott Galloway]

I love that. That's where we're going to leave it. All right, that's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates. Our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo. Our technical director is Drew Burroughs. You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday. That's right. Raging Moderates is on its own. Fe. What a thrill. Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts or I'm sending an incredibly intelligent person who is almost six feet tall and by the way, her husband's even bigger. You don't. Don't mess with the tars. Just stay safe, large people. Enjoy your evening on Fox. Watch Cure videos or REM or Tom Petty. If things get really scary, I promise it'll calm you down.

[Jessica Tarloff]

Happy voting.

[Scott Galloway]

Happy voting. Where this will still be America. All right, Jess. Probably probably America. Ish.