The Rise of Conspiracy Politics in Trump’s America (ft. Astead Herndon)

Summary

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway & Jessica Tarlov
Episode: The Rise of Conspiracy Politics in Trump’s America (ft. Astead Herndon)
Date: April 29, 2026
Podcast Network: Vox Media

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Overview

In this episode of Raging Moderates, Jessica Tarlov is joined by Astead Herndon, host of America, Actually at Vox, CNN political analyst, and former New York Times reporter, to unpack the rise and consequences of conspiracy-driven politics in the Trump era. The pair highlight how Donald Trump’s leadership, Republican Party fractures, and the American public’s trust in institutions have collided to make conspiracies mainstream and fuel deep skepticism about democracy. The discussion also pivots to the Supreme Court’s latest voting rights rulings, challenges facing moderates, and the under-reported transformation of America’s political identity.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Trump’s Administration and the End of the “Outsider” Narrative

• Herndon reflects on how Trump’s image as an anti-elite outsider shifted now that he is the establishment, and how this disillusioned the Republican coalition that once rallied around him:

  “People have always projected the version of Trump that they wanted to see. And so much of his appeal was rich guy for little guy and...like, outsider of the club. He was pushing back against an elite class more than he was a member of it. ...He’s now the Republican establishment.” (01:11, 12:18)

• Many in the populist right, including figures like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, now voice disappointment as Trump’s actions—especially regards to foreign wars—mirror those of past establishment presidents.

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Iran War, Economic Fallout, and the Fracturing MAGA Coalition

• Jessica and Astead discuss the Iran conflict, Republican infighting, and waning Trump support:
  • On the war’s rationale: Herndon calls out the administration for “scrambling to backfill” after entering a predictable quagmire without adequate planning (03:47).

    “They haven’t broken yet...So, we know where any nuclear material [is]. We had to start this war...because the nuclear weapon was an imminent threat. Now you’re saying it was completely obliterated. Their ambitions continued.” (03:12) “This administration has lost its own ability to narrative set...” (06:48)

  • On economic impact: High gas and fertilizer prices, tariffs, and inflation have sparked discontent even among previous Trump voters.

    “Tariffs were the initial driver...when we talk to folks, that’s mostly driven by gas prices...the economic concerns are the tangible ones. But there is always, I think there is a sense of loss of credibility and dysfunction that’s really plagued this White House since his return.” (06:48)

  • On voter realignment: Young voters and Latinos who leaned right recently are now reverting to Democrats, viewing their MAGA support as a temporary experiment (09:27).

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The Collapse of Shared Reality & Mainstreaming of Conspiracies

• Conspiracy theories aren’t fringe anymore—on either side:
  • Tarlov notes: “It’s a great time to be a nutcase.” (13:21)
  • Herndon on the breakdown:

    “We’re in a breakdown of shared reality...I don’t think we all, you know, we don’t agree on the version of events that are in front of our face. ...That was taking over people that were going beyond the kind of conspiratorial folks you expect...like, this is not as fringe as you thought. This is becoming more mainstream.” (14:14) “Sometimes our unwillingness to deal with the scope of people who believe in those conspiracies allow them to fester and I think also allow us to miss political movements that are happening.” (18:06)

  • The panel underlines that both parties now host sizable segments convinced that outsiders (Trump, RFK Jr.) better represent them than traditional institutions.
  • Loss of institutional trust (from COVID to Epstein) creates space for conspiracies to flourish on both left and right (17:30–19:45).

    “Saying that corporations have captured pharma and food and all this is a majority opinion among voters.” (19:45)

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The Supreme Court, Democracy, & the Future of Representation

• Supreme Court’s Louisiana Map Ruling:
  • The pair discusses the Court’s decision as a significant narrowing of the Voting Rights Act and a victory for GOP gerrymandering efforts.
  • Herndon on the stakes:

    “This is an arms race that has been building for a while and it’s so disconnected from the majority of the electorate who...understand Congress is broken.” (23:49) “Do we want to live in a place—like, how much can we call it a democracy if the majority of electorates votes, particularly in the most representative branch of government, are completely written out?” (26:31)

  • Jessica notes that even as Democrats seek reforms (affordability, fair maps), the system’s institutional damage—like DOJ dysfunction and congressional stagnation—might be deeper than most realize (27:53–28:56).

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What’s Missing From the National Conversation?

• Most undercovered story? Real demographic shifts and political identity re-formation.
  • Herndon cautions against rehashing pre-2016 myths:

    “The way we talk about who we are is increasingly not compatible with who we’re gonna be...the reason those assumptions are not working is because both of those boxes are inadequate.” (33:57–36:58)

  • Young voters, first-gen Americans, and multiracial constituencies don’t fit old paradigms—and neither party, nor media, has fully caught up.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s base losing trust:

  “That group of people who really saw Donald Trump as a means of busting up the cabal has lost faith in him.” —Astead Herndon (01:11, 12:18)

• On the reality gap:

  “We’re in a breakdown of shared reality…We don’t agree on the version of events that are in front of our face.”—Astead Herndon (14:14)

• On institutional failure:

  “I don’t think the Democrats have offered a counterweight that recognizes that democracy in its current form is not serving even their own voters.” —Astead Herndon (28:56)

• On long term vision:

  “The way we talk about who we are is increasingly not compatible with who we’re gonna be.” —Astead Herndon (36:00)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening context & framing Trump’s establishment status: [01:11]
• GOP splinters, Iran war, and economic fallout: [03:47] – [09:27]
• Conspiracy theories and breakdown of shared reality: [13:21] – [19:45]
• Loss of institutional trust and pandemic aftershocks: [17:30] – [20:51]
• Supreme Court, voting rights & democratic legitimacy: [22:21] – [26:31]
• Reform, gerrymandering, and the challenge for moderates: [27:53] – [33:42]
• Demographic transformation & America’s future: [33:57] – [36:58]

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Tone and Style

The conversation is thoughtful, unsparing, often wry, and resolutely centrist—both critical of right and left extremes and deeply concerned about the fraying of America’s political and social fabric. Jessica and Astead maintain a brisk, informative, and sometimes sardonic banter, carefully unpacking complex topics while highlighting the everyday realities for voters exhausted by both radicalism and status quo politics.

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For listeners:
This episode offers a nuanced look at how conspiracy politics have gone mainstream in both parties, the failure of traditional institutions to address voters’ real concerns, and the urgent need for creative, forward-looking solutions that go beyond old left/right binaries and address the real dynamics of a rapidly changing America.

Transcript

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[Estad Herndon]

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[Estad Herndon]

people have always projected the version of Trump that they wanted to see. And so much of his appeal was rich guy for little guy and like, you know, outsider of the club. He was pushing back against an elite class more than he was a member of it. And I think there are ways that he was outside of the establishment, particularly in Republican politics, but he's now the Republican establishment. And I think that the behavior of this administration has driven that home. That group of people who really saw Donald Trump as a means of busting up the cabal, like, has lost faith in him.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov, and today I'm very lucky to be joined by Estad Herndon, who hosts America actually at Vox. He's also the editorial director. He's also a political analyst at cnn. And you may recognize him. Or at least this is where I became familiar with a stead when he was a national political reporter at the New York Times. It's so cool to have you here. Thanks for coming on.

[Estad Herndon]

Thank you for having me. I'm pumped.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I'm pumped, too. If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay up to date on all of the politics. There's a lot to get to. We have some very heated testimony taking place on Capitol Hill already. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is. He would like to be talking about the budget. Everybody else is talking about the war in Iran. And he's also Talking about Joe Biden a lot, which is one of my pet peeves. The guy is gone and you won, so just enjoy it. But the 60 day deadline to draw down the conflict in Iran is fast approaching. Lots of reporting surrounding how, especially on the Senate side for the Republicans, that they're getting a little twitchy about it. But let's take a look at Hegseth answering a question.

[Estad Herndon]

So they haven't broken yet. Okay. We haven't gotten there yet for all of the. Well, their nuclear facilities have been obliterated underground. They're buried and watching them 24 7. So we know where any nuclear material we claiming we're watching a second here. We had to start this war, you

[Jessica Tarlov]

just said 60 days ago because the

[Estad Herndon]

nuclear weapon was an imminent threat. Now you're saying that it was completely obliterated. They had not given up their nuclear ambitions and they had a conventional shield of thousands. So Operation Midnight Hammer, nothing of substance. It left the place we were before. So much so their facilities are bombed and obliterated, their. Their ambitions continued.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Timelines are pesky things in all of this. What do you make of Hegseth on the Hill and kind of where we are with the war?

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, I think that has Hegseth is scrambling to backfill an administration that is recognizing a quagmire they're in over there that's one of their own making and one that was completely predictable. I mean, we talked to John Bolton for today explained Saturday, who has been advocating for something just like this for a long time. And he was saying not like this though, that he thought he's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I didn't want it like this because of just how they've walked into this, not preparing allies, not recognizing kind of clear points of retaliation from the regime, things like closing the Strait of Hormuz, which were brought up to Donald Trump and the reason he didn't do this in the first term. And I think like we're seeing an administration that was a trigger happy frankly. I think after Venezuela and just wanted to press on. I mean from my work through the run up into now, it's been so consistent even how much the MAGA coalition would tell themselves that Donald Trump would not do exactly what he's done. So I think for a lot of people, you know, Trump hypocrisy is just a thing that's built into the cost. And I completely understand that as a man who like flip flops every second and doesn't believe many words he's saying at the time. But this was the specific issue that a lot of people, from the Steve Bannon's to the Tucker Carlson's to the kind of broader group of Republicans who had changed the party, had told themselves that this is what made Donald Trump different. He would not do the forever wars. He would not kind of walk us into a foreign conflict without an exit strategy. And that's exactly what he's done. And so I think Hex said what is trying to do on the Hill is, you know, what the administration's been trying to do over the last several weeks, which is backfill an explanation that most Americans aren't buying. And I think that's why the, those, you know, the timelines flail the kind of answers don't make sense. And I think for most, for most like individual voters and I think for an electorate that we're tracking for the future, people get that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I don't want to say this is such an important day because tomorrow it'll tick higher. But today gases 423 a gallon and that's pretty high for the average American. You know, Diesel up over 6 in a lot of cases. We have a huge fertilizer problem. And Donald Trump is making this argument now that he wants to basically just play an economic pressure game and he'll just keep the blockade going. So he's not interested in resuming even the air attacks. He certainly doesn't want to put puts on the ground because there's no appetite for that. But it does feel like they're making an argument that there aren't economic consequences for us. This is about squeezing Europe and China and Russia. And from your reporting, what are you, I guess hearing about that and the kind of cognitive dissonance between what, what they're saying and people who support him are feeling, because this split, and you already mentioned some of the key figures in it, like a Steve Bannon or a Tucker Carlson is really hyped certainly on my side of the aisle. Right. Like I love to see infighting, but I know how real it actually is.

[Estad Herndon]

I think it's fair to be skeptical of it. And this is what I tell people. I'm like baseline Republicans are largely with Donald Trump, but we've seen some of that change over the last seven to eight months. I think it started before the Iran war. This is principally about tariffs in my opinion. Like this is principally about a decision that this administration made that spiked inflation. That was the exact opposite thing of the egg prices reason a lot of people put him into office in the first place. And so we started seeing that drop off really, last summer from even some people, particularly the independent swing voter who voted for him. And that's why I say make a distinction between MAGA coalition and Republican, because Donald Trump's success as an electoral candidate is that he pulls together a type of person who will vote for him outside of the Republican Party. Now, that's where I think the Tuckers and others matter is because they're more representative of that group than the traditional Republican base. And so I think that, like, tariffs were the initial driver. And even when we see some of the backlash from Iran, when we talk to folks, that's mostly driven by gas prices, as you mentioned, by, you know, I think an underestimation of the diversity of goods that would have been affected by the Strait of Hormuz. You mentioned fertilizer and others. And so I just think that the economic concerns are the tangible ones. But there is always, I think there is a sense of loss of credibility and dysfunction that's really plagued this White House since his return. And I think that is not just, you know, tariffs in Iran. That's also Epstein, which I think was a backtrack that really split some of that base. And I would say Minnesota and ice, I think that was widely, you know, even if he correctly named a problem that some people felt about border security or something, there's been a mass rejection of his big deportation push. And so I think across the board, you've seen a White House that has lost its own ability to narrative set, and they don't really have another play, in my opinion. Like, they're busy, they've busy, they've been busy. And they've gotten used to being able to tell their voters what to believe, to kind of play assignment editor to media and I think kind of dictate, you know, block out the sun, I think, on a lot of issues. And I frankly don't think he has that power anymore. I would also add in he's just kind of diminished. Like, you know, this happened in Biden era, too. But I think this is not, you know, I think the sleeping. Yeah, the sleeping sounds the same, doesn't look the same, and I don't think that stuff is meaningless. I think that also has, like, I think caused a group of people to really see this as like a more expected, I think, you know, traditional Republican administration rather than what they were trying to do. At least on the campaign trail, he hasn't followed through on the premise he set out.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I think that that's really Important especially because the MAGA coalition now has so many casual Republicans, seemingly the Latinos and young voters in particular, who seem to be shifting back to the Democratic side because they were just visiting, right? They were like, we'll try this out and if it's shitty, you know, we'll. We'll move on. So I do think the aging part of this matters a lot. And especially in the context, I think a lot about all those autopsies, not the one Ken Martin won't give us, but the ones that we actually saw about how folks felt about the parties. And it was weak versus strong. And part of being strong is being awake. And Donald Trump is struggling with that. But I want to admit it's easier

[Estad Herndon]

to pitch himself as change agent when he was running against the Democratic Party, pitching himself as status quo. His, I think the solutions he was pitching on the campaign trail were never universally agreed. I think he wanted, he did a better job at Democrats, at diagnosing problems people felt. And so that's what I think is the tension we're seeing now is the gap between the solutions he was always pitching and the fact that I remember on the trail when you would ask people about tariffs or you would ask people about the kind of Project 2025 of it all, they wouldn't necessarily love that. They just, they just thought what was happening right now wasn't good. Now we're seeing them seeing his proposed solutions, and I think there's a backlash against that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I 100% think that's right. Obviously it's reflected in all the polling. But I want to ask you about this lack of power to agenda set because someone, as someone who works in conservative media, I've been frustrated for several years by the fact that a Donald Trump seemed to have his finger more on the pulse of the average American than a lot of people in Democratic leadership. But also that he could essentially order everybody, no matter your politics, to talk about what he wanted to talk about. And I don't see that anymore. I think Epstein is a key plank in that, where people are just like, yeah, he's just trying to hide the Epstein list or whatever. But, you know, what do you think about that diminishing power?

[Estad Herndon]

I think you're right to really point that back to Epstein and some of the other issues we talked about. I tell folks like, you know, particularly, I think if you don't follow conservative news or talk to Republicans or whatever, I think that a lot of, like, more, you know, news watchers can be like, how did you ever think that Donald Trump was, you know, someone who wasn't part of the Epstein class. Right. We knew they had a long relationship. We knew all of those things coming in to 2024 and that. But, you know, people have always projected the version of Trump that they wanted to see. And so much of his appeal was rich guy for little guy and like, you know, outsider of the club who people felt was more of, you know, like, you know, like he wasn't. He was pushing back against an elite class more than he was a member of it. And I think Epstein really showed how much that's not true.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Or they were pushing back against him.

[Various Advertisers/Hosts]

Yeah.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Because he always wanted in. And they were like, actually, that's a

[Estad Herndon]

better way to put it, because he has been desperate to be in that kind of club. And I think we kind of saw that rejection. And so he was able to pitch that electorally as a reason he would be fighter for you. And I think there are ways that he was outside of the establishment, particularly in Republican politics, but he's now the Republican establishment. And I think that the behavior of this administration has driven that home. And so I think Epstein's a key link there because I remember I was so that kind of qanoni conspiratorial wing of the right isn't small. And I remember that kind of Ron Paul wing, that group of people who really saw Donald Trump as a means of busting up the cabal has lost faith in him. And so I don't think that means that Republicans ain't gonna win an election again, but I do think that means that, you know, that kind of approval rating collapse or the midterms are something that, as we get closer to referendums on Trump, that's better and better for Democrats.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I want to talk Supreme Court with you, but you already brought up a conspiracy theories which I also wanted to talk about you. So let's, let's stay in the land of red pilled and blue pilled because it's a great time to be a nutcase. Right. And I, I'm sure you saw the Manhattan Institute survey that had 46% of Democrats think that Butler was staged to benefit Trump. I actually messaged the Manhattan Institute to ask if they had data on the right for that question, which they didn't ask them about, which frustrated me, and I voiced that concern. But they also had asked the Right about a bunch of other conspiracy theories. And it's mostly these new entrants into the con, into the coalition, who think the crazy stuff, everything from, you know, 9, 11, was an inside job, moon landing, faked at, et cetera. What do you make of the state of the American consciousness?

[Estad Herndon]

I guess it's wild. I mean, like, I think that we're in a, we're in a breakdown of shared reality. And I keep telling people, like, I think that's been building for a long time. Like whether that has been, you know, you know, all the way dating back to like the collapse of shared media or monoculture, whether it's our kind of self selecting social media ecosystem or kind of deference to the algorithm, whether I'm like, whatever kind of version you want to do. I don't think we all, you know, we don't agree on the, the, the, the version of events that are in front of our face. And I think that's been building. We know that from the Republican side. Like, I tell people, like, you know, I, you know, I follow a lot of conservative news. I talk to Republicans all the time, I do a lot of traveling to make sure we hear those voices. And one of the things I always remember was like the fever pitch after 2020, before January 6, and the kind of like fervor and anger that was taking over people that like, were going beyond the kind of conspiratorial folks you expect always tell the story about like being at, I was covering the, the special elections in Georgia for the Senate after Biden had won. And I remember being at like an Ivanka Trump event in suburban Georgia with all of these kind of well to do Georgia ladies. And everyone was talking about like machine, machine fraud and like the kind of conspiratorial like Biden stole the election. And it really was this moment for me, like, this is not as fringe as you kind of thought. Like this is becoming more mainstream. Obviously that culminates in January 6th. Now I don't want to say it's one to one with Democrats, but it's been building like I totally think it was undercovered. How many people think that the 2024 election was fake? I mean, I talked to some Democrats who still tell you they're not sure that Donald Trump really won every swank state. And so you started seeing some of that, then you saw all of it in Charlie Kirk and I think in Butler. And I think it's really exploded even this weekend with the shooting at the White House Correspondents Dinner. And so I think that is somewhat a function of our institutional trust loss. Right. People have stopped believing in kind of institutional media. And I think like, and I think some of that has, has led to Conspiracy rising. Like if you believe the creators. More like if you, if you rather advice come from your like kind of individual friend rather than like trusted doctor. I even say this back to Covid. I think this was a big part of that institutional breakdown too. I think it leads to some of those conspiracies bubbling up. I would also say in their defense, I do think something like Epstein shows how institutional media can be missing, like doesn't want to touch things that are somewhat in their sphere. And so in their, that like independent media that kind of like TikTok driven journalism hasn't been able to seize on our willing blind spots too. So I think some of it is self inflicted on like our part, but I think it's a much bigger, bigger breakdown of shared reality. And I think it's gonna make stuff like politics harder because I don't think we're all working from the same premise. And those, those silos that folks are living in have only grown to be more and more further apart.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. When you also have. And this links back to what we were just talking about with Trump that you have politicians that are scared of telling their constituents the truth for sure about, you know, anything from. I mean it's still over 50% of Republicans who think 2020 was fraudulent.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah. I mean like if we start to like Donald Trump's origin story, I always say this, like birtherism was a popular opinion among the Republican electorate. Like when we think about his rise, we should not think about birtherism as a problem for him in that early 2016 primary. It helped him.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It was an asset.

[Estad Herndon]

It was an asset because it was wide. I remember this is a long time ago, so I don't have the poll on hand, but I remember doing a story at that time about how the majority of Republican voters in Iowa in 2016 thought Obama was born in Kenya. So I'm like he wasn't off the pulse, he was on the pulse, he was driving the pulse. And so I'm like sometimes I think our unwillingness to deal with the scope of people who believe in those conspiracies allow them to fester and I think also allow us to, to miss political movements that are happening. And so because we have decided that's fringe, that doesn't necessarily mean it's fringe. And so I think something like that Manhattan Institute poll, something like, I think the flood of. I think some reactions we're seeing about Butler, about these things I think are forcing a conversation that isn't just simply left wing violence or left wing conspiracies or right wing violence or right wing conspiracies. I think it is a breakdown of institutional trust overall and that's led kind of baseline voter to be just wildly out of the. Of the. I keep using shared reality, but wildly out of the share reality that I think you're more a lead or news watchers or news followers are existing in.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I would add Maha.

[Estad Herndon]

Another. Yep, another. Great.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Especially like I have a four and a two year old and you know, a mostly liberal set of friends and they weren't, they didn't, you know, switched to Trump for RFK Jr. But they were like, why aren't you guys talking about who dies? Right? Like why? I'm like, aren't you talking about that my kid doesn't need the COVID vaccine? Right. That this might be safe and effective for adult. You're totally right to call back to Covid because that is really where we started to go.

[Estad Herndon]

He really seized on that institutional distrust. I remember being in Michigan during, when he was still running as an independent and I'm like, you know, saying that both parties don't have your interest in mind is a 70% plus opinion from voters. Right. Like saying that corporations have captured pharma and food and all this is a majority opinion among voters. And so I do think that sometimes there are issues that are on the ground that like the kind of establishment or kind of corporate led versions of both parties aren't really talking about or can't touch or can't touch really. And I think that's allowed this kind of lane to fester in a bigger way. But, you know, I certainly interviewed rfk. It's so wrapped up in conspiracy, it's so wrapped up in falsehood that I don't want to act like it's legitimate from a truthful, like factual basis, but it's definitely emotionally true for a lot of people. And I remember like the, you know, at RFK events, the majority of those people were ex Democrats, you know, and I think that was an underrated piece of the Trump 2 coalition.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. Another day that I'll cry about that again. But I totally saw that too. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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[Jessica Tarlov]

I want to tell you about a new podcast from Vox called America actually. It's hosted by political journalist Estad Herndon who I love. The show asks the question, what will America look like after Donald Trump? Trump better happen. Trump's been running a one man show for over a decade, but we're heading towards the first open presidential election since 2016 and it'll play out in a country that'll feel very different. America actually digs deep into the questions that you and your friends are asking about politics, culture and the economy. It'll map out the people and ideas that'll shape the future beyond Trump. You can watch America actually on the Vox YouTube channel and listen wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. I want to make sure that we talk about the Supreme Court because this is a massive ruling that Louisiana's congressional map was unconstitutional, upholding a lower court ruling that map makers relied too heavily on race when they redo redrew the state's voting boundaries. The ruling delivers a significant victory for Republicans and narrows the landmark Voting Rights Act. It doesn't do away with Section two, but it's on its way to gun it. The news comes as Florida's legislature debates a new congressional map Provo proposed by Governor Ron DeSantis. So I guess he is gonna f around and find out. Leader Jeffries, please pay attention. The new map could potentially add four more GOP leaning seats to the state. Democrats say it'll be a dummy mander, but we'll see what happens. It'll definitely go to court because their constitution I think bans it. How significant is today's Supreme Court ruling?

[Estad Herndon]

Huge. So I mean I think that like we're at the first steps of this, right? Like we are gonna see, I think we're gonna see a couple Things we're gonna see Republicans who are already planning for some of These rulings, particularly DeSantis in Florida, test the limits of how far they can go on these gerrymanders. I think we're gonna see questions of Donald Trump's power. Remember in places like Indiana, he tried to really force those state lawmakers to do a more dramatic gerrymander. They did not wanna do it. That intensity is gonna grow, I think, in some of those states, and we'll see how kind of far some could go. But I just think in general, like, this is an arms race that has been building for a while and it's so disconnected from the majority of the electorate who don't find these, who understand Congress's brokenness, right, who understand that Congress has gotten more partisan, have refuses to pass bigger legislation because they're mostly worried about primary challenges. And they don't necessarily, I don't think sometimes I think insiders can overrate how much information you need to really get. Like, the power structures going on. I'm like, they don't need to know about Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. They know Congress is broken. Like, that's obvious to everybody involved. And so I think the big impact, of course, is gonna be about, like some of these black districts in the south, whether these conservative groups are gonna try to write them out fully and whether Democrats can marshal a response. But I would just say, like, there's the short term question of the midterms, right? Like, Donald Trump's goal has been to win these midterms before they start. Like, his goal has been to functionally usurp the kind of democratic process that would make this a referendum on him and ensure that the Republicans can maintain their majority through gerrymandering. I think that's the short term question. I think as we build to 2028, there is going to be increasing pressure, particularly on Democrats. But I don't, you know, I think it might be all around about what is the version of democracy we want. I think there is some level of political creativity that's been missing from Democrats about, like, about a long term plan to make democracy more responsive. And so when you saw 2024, you know, the pitch from Harris and Biden, I think was a lot about protecting a democracy. That sounded like a status quo argument, in my opinion. And for the majority of voters, including some Democrats, they didn't think that what we were doing right now was working. What I think is a better message and I think what Democrats are getting closer to is improving democracy. And so I think you're gonna get proposals on the kind of structural government rethink from all of these candidates getting ready to run in 2028. The question will be like, has Donald Trump blown everything up before they're able to do that stuff? Because as we remember, Democrats tried to, tried ish to reinvigorate the voting act in the early days of the Biden administration and they ran into some blockades, filibuster, Sinema Manchin and others. But the necessity of it is very clear because I do think we are, I don't think, like, I guess I'll just say this myself, like, do we want to live in a place like, how much can we call it a democracy if the majority of electorates votes, particularly in the most representative branch of government are completely written out? You know, and so I think on a congressional level, there's increasing distaste for that. I think there's certainly a distaste for like the electoral college and how that does it on a presidential level. And so I think there will be pressure from voters to say, what are we doing here? And I think that pressure increases with this decision. But the short term question is about the midterms and whether Republicans can simply use this to, to kind of finesse their way to an undeserving victory.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I, I think that's all right and super interesting. And I, on raging moderates and just in my conversations I'm constantly asking lawmakers like, what do you have? Yeah, like, like, like what's the thing that you're campaigning on? Right? Because status quo blows. Like, nobody is, no one's into it,

[Estad Herndon]

no one's having fun.

[Jessica Tarlov]

No, there is no status quo voter out there. Like maybe a 90 year old who's like, I want the good old days, whatever that was, but they probably have a grandkid that's telling them that they can't own a home, they don't have a job and they're drowning in student debt and they don't have health care. So like, that's not working either. And I think, you know, taking steps with like the affordability agenda that Greg Kazar and Pat Ryan just put out, like those kinds of things that are forward looking and have policy half to them matter a lot. But the institutional damage, I, I don't think we even understand how bad it is under the hood. Like, you know, the Comey indictment, which I'm glad to see, you know, Andy McCarthy, Jonathan Turley, they're out there being like, this is a joke, right? Like, and it didn't take you 10 months to investigate a bunch of seashells or whatever Cash Patel was saying. But like, even if there's a Democratic takeover of the doj, like is it broken on a longer term level that we're not even able to kind of process at this point? Like, how do you get everyone back?

[Estad Herndon]

The scope of institutional damage is like, is overwhelming. Like I was saying this to, you know, like someone else the other day. I'm like, you know, whether it's like the kind of open grift in corruption or pay to play ness of it all, whether it's the change in federal workforce and doge and all that stuff, whether it's the growth of executive power and the way that like, I think some of those things were intentionally written so they can have a fight, have a fight in court to expand the President's role and actually make Congress more minimal. Right. And so I think all of those kind of structural power questions are ones that Donald Trump has uniquely introduced because of his, you know, I would say like authoritarian tendencies or his unwillingness to, I think, think about democracy in its three branches form. But to your point, it's not clear to me. I don't think the Democrats have offered a counterweight that recognizes that democracy in its current form is not serving even their own voters. And so that's what I think is we're leading to is, okay, what is the way I think that, you know, this is the kind of work we're trying to do in America, actually. It's like, like what is the way that a post Trump America, what do we take from this moment? What do we leave? Like, what do we wanna leave behind? And how much of this is here with us to stay too? And I think that is something we're just on the early versions of because so much of his personality has wrapped up that debate. But it's not just about his personality, Right. Like these are levers that are now introduced for the next president, whether it's J.D. vance or Gavin Newsom or whoever. Right. And so I think that type of question of how do we institute how do we improve our democracy? Will be something and how do we make it more responsive? How do we think about political power? Are questions that Democrats are increasingly asking. You know, the kind of fight question has been more in the last year or so. Their voters want not just to see their politicians like articulate anti Trump rhetoric, but use their power in ways to, I think, that are more affirmative. And we weren't really seeing that as much in Trump. 1 But I think it's part of a recognition from baseline Democrat that, you know, talk isn't enough and that like they haven't in kind of engaging in a rhetoric battle. They've let the Russ votes of the world reshape government in their image.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, well, we've never had great long term planning. Right. Like, they're always been comfortable with the long game. That's the jobs decision. Right.

[Estad Herndon]

Like if it takes planning for 20 years, you know, 30 years for that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. And if there's a setback, it's just a hiccup. Yeah, right. It's not like a complete meltdown. And so I have been appreciative and feel, you know, positive about the response, let's say, to the redistricting in Texas. Like, I like Prop 50, I like Virginia especially because they asked the voters, but now, like I was reading, maybe Colorado, they're going to go to Colorado, which is increasingly blue leaning, and say it should be 8o here. Right.

[Estad Herndon]

Or Illinois. Like they could, they could draw new stuff. Right.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It's already so funking in Illinois.

[Estad Herndon]

So weird though. Like, so guess what I'm saying. It's like, I mean, there's the, there's the kind of tactical political question of like how they can respond, which is important and I'm not trying to minimize, but I do think that even the response pulls our structures further away from where most of the electorate wanted to be. Like, I hear so much about term limits and ending the electoral college and get money out of politics and things that are doctor Independent that are, I feel like part of people's recognition that like these folks are acting in their own self interest consistently. And so I understand if you are a person who's personally invested in the Democratic Party's success, you're just like, how do we respond? Like, how do we, how do we match Republican fire with fire? And that has importance. But I think when you think about swing voter, when you think about general election voter, people are more distant from this process. What I hear when I'm around those folks and when we do reporting about those communities is like the number one thing is like, we don't think this is working at all. You know, so I'm like, there's the primary and kind of midterm, more like political invested question. And then there's a bigger one of like when we get to the presidential election, like, I do think another level of creativity is going to be required by those voters because the structure itself is one that is pretty unpopular.

[Jessica Tarlov]

My last question was going to be, you know, from your work on America, actually, and just all of your reporting, what do you think is the most undercovered story right now in American politics? And it might be this, you know, that we actually need a vision for 2028.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, I think some of the stuff and things we talked about, like I mentioned some of the issues that we hear about that rarely get talked about in, like, kind of political world. And I think there are things that are super tangible to people. Obviously, we know about affordability. We know about those things that I think are still top of the list. But I say issues like homelessness, crime. I mentioned, like, fixing money in politics are things that I hear about a lot. But if I think about, like a kind of larger setting question, I think in like, 2016 and 2017, there was such an obsession with the demographic changes in America, and there was an assumption that they were gonna lead to this, like, permanent liberal majority. Now we know that that's not true anymore. I think that that's something that Trump, particularly in 2024, showed, is that many of those groups are swing voters, right? Like, they rented them for one election, but they're voting for a Democrat in the next one. They've been voting for Democrats all through these special elections. But those demographic changes are still very real, you know, And I somewhat think that the backlash to identity politics is such that we've stopped acknowledging just how big those changes are. And so, like, there will be a way that the influx of first generation Americans changes our politics. Like, it's already right. And I think that even the ways we talk about, I think about the ways we talk about race in a lot of primaries, like, that is so built from an old school black and white dichotomy that's mostly built in, like, civil rightsy politics. That is changing, that's changing among younger black voters. That's changing among an increasingly born, like, black immigrant population. That's increasingly changing from people who don't view themselves in a black white binary at all. And so, like, I just think that the way we talk about who we are is increasingly not compatible with who we're gonna be. And so that's a story that I find undercover, partially because once the assumptions were proven to be false, AKA all these people weren't just like, secret progressives or like secret Obama liberals. We now just are like, maybe they're just secret Trump voters. I'm like, no, neither of those things are true. The reason those assumptions are not working is because both of those boxes are inadequate. And so I don't know where that leads us, but I don't think it leads us backwards. I think that leads us to something different. And so part of what I feel like is the work we're gonna try to do and the work I just think I wish political media would do more of is like being open minded to those type of changes rather than trying to reinforce old guardrails. And so that's what I am motivated by is I do feel like the question of who America is is shifting, but it's not shifting based on our past assumptions. And so let's shed now that those are shed. If one thing Donald Trump has done, he's blown those up. So I'm like, at minimum, we gotta move on. And the next version of something I think will be more nuanced, will be more complex, and the question will be whether our political system is built to reflect that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It's actually kind of perfect timing with the 250th anniversary as well. You know, a nice round number also, we're out of time, but Shout out King Charles. I thought it was great all day yesterday. The shade and the charm.

[Estad Herndon]

The war of 1814, the war of 1812, all that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was at the British Embassy on Sunday for this White House correspondence thing and they wouldn't let us stand on the grass because the king was on his way. And I was like, you know what? Fair, fair.

[Jessica Tarlov]

He is at the end of the day, still a king. And that. The White House tweeted a picture of them and said two kings made me just want to die a little. I said this was awesome. Thank you for coming on. And everyone should listen to America, actually,

[Estad Herndon]

as thank you for having me. Loved it.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Before we go, reminder that Raging Moderates is on Substack subscribers get those ad free episodes. Is there anything more exclusive than an ad free episode? Access to me and Scott and the community. He is like on a live stream kick. He did one yesterday, probably be doing one tomorrow. We have a newsletter, the Monday Rage. It's really Good. Join raging moderates.profgmedia.com on substack. That's all for this episode. Thank you so much for joining us today, Sam.