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Aaron Parnas
When you think of someone with adhd, who comes to mind? Is it a woman in her 30s?
Jessica Tarlov
Just this constant feeling of being too much, you know, too kinetic, too loud, all of the. Too anything and just really feeling like people got some kind of social rulebook
Aaron Parnas
that I never got. The changing face of adhd. That's this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
When is the AI bubble going to burst?
Aaron Parnas
How do you AI proof your job? How should colleges handle AI and prepare students for a shifting job market? I'm Henry Blodgett, and on my show Solutions, I've been exploring all of those questions and more with experts who have actual answers.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
We hear enough about our problems. Let's solve them. Follow Solutions with Henry Blodgett. Until now, mobile phone companies have worked very hard to ensure their phones do not start fires. But we found one company that dared to go in a different direction and make a phone with fire. Starting as a feature on the Vergecast, we talk about all the greatest and weirdest phone concepts from Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Plus, after years of legal battles, Google and Epics are now best buddies, contractually obligated to not say mean things about their app stores anymore. That's this week on the Vergecast. We wherever you get your podcasts,
Jessica Tarlov
Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov.
Aaron Parnas
And I'm Aaron Parnas.
Jessica Tarlov
And in today's episode, we're going to talk about how Trump's war in Iran will impact the midterms, what ICE will look like after Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski's departure. He'll be sorely missed. And what's in the latest DOJ batch of Epstein files that just were released. If you aren't already, make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to get up to date coverage on everything happening. New episodes are dropping every day at 5pm Are you liking it? I hope you're liking it. I'm tired. All right, let's get into it. Trump admitted that Americans may die and also said that he wants Iran's leadership structure gone and that he has a preference for a good leader to replace it. Which I guess is better than him saying that he has a preference for a bad leader. He ruled out the ayatollah's son, so we won't have a Nepo baby, I guess. But what is your expectation of who comes next for Iran? Aaron?
Aaron Parnas
Well, happy Friday to you.
Jessica Tarlov
Happy Friday to you. We're at war.
Aaron Parnas
We're at war. And I will Say before I get into Iran, to all those watching, you guys have to make this the most watched video of the five days a week. So that Scott puts me on more often. Kidding.
Jessica Tarlov
Throwing the gauntlet down.
Aaron Parnas
Throwing the gauntlet down. What's happening in Iran? I think that this is what happens when you don't have a plan, or rather when you accidentally or intentionally bomb your plan B, C and D and kill them too. Because that's what Trump did, right? Or I guess the Israelis did or Trump did. I don't know.
Jessica Tarlov
We did.
Aaron Parnas
We did, yeah. I mean, we, all of us, we don't have a plan. And I think that's been very clear. I was watching videos from the Iraq war, what generals were saying and the defense secretary was saying back then, and it was like the same. It's like history repeating itself. Back then it was like, oh, we'll be done in six days or six months or, you know, maybe never. And now it's, we're going to be done in a few days, few weeks. Now we're looking through at least the end of September based on political reporting. So ultimately, this war is turning into a forever war. Trump is motivated by. I don't know what. Because I don't really. Other than killing the guy who almost killed him. That was, I think, a big motivation of his to start this war. And ultimately the American people are gonna suffer because of it. The fact that an American. Imagine if Joe Biden came out and said, you know, Americans may die because of attacks on the.
Jessica Tarlov
That's what happens, right?
Aaron Parnas
That. That's just what happens in war. Like, I mean, Fox News, all, all of these more conservative news organizations would be calling for impeachment, 25th amendment.
Jessica Tarlov
I mean, they literally were. I've been talking about that on one said, more conservative leaning network that Pete Hagseth himself was beating that drum after the Afghanistan withdrawal, which, if we all remember, was when things turned for Joe Biden. His approval did never got back on track after Afghanistan when 13 service members died and he allegedly checked his watch. One thing. Well, it's not one thing. It's multiple things that I wanted to bring up because there are American lives at risk. And so I have been trying to focus at least some of my energy on the what could go right argument, because I would like this to go right. I am unclear from what the administration has said as to what that actually is. But most of all, I don't want any more Americans to die. And it would be great if the Iranian people were freer, totally free. I I'm not sure that's ever going to happen, but lived in better circumstances in that you had a more moderate head of the Iranian government. But it is slim pickings if you are looking for an article or a piece of reporting that is positive about what's going on, and not because they're biased, but because they're actually doing jobs. So the price of oil. So we're up to $86 a barrel right now. The Qataris are saying you could go to $150. I just saw that Trump didn't refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is something they also criticize the Biden administration for. So that's another notch in the. Were you actually planning to do this Belt. Americans are posting on social media that it's complete BS that they're being helped to get out there. I saw that. I guess Bob Kraft's plane is going to get people so that they can come home on a Patriots jet. So that's. The State Department numbers are still not all working. So that. That's a big fail. The FTSE reporting that our Gulf allies, who we traded in a lot of Western allies for, are now talking about withdrawing from contracts with us and canceling future economic investments. Russia is giving Iran targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East. So, you know, bad gamble there. Zelensky shows up to bail us out, and the Russians are doing exactly what you would expect that they do because Putin is a, you know, the axis of evil monarch and they want us to be applauding.
Aaron Parnas
So you're saying we're. We're in the golden age? Is that what you're saying? This is the golden.
Jessica Tarlov
And the jobs report?
Aaron Parnas
The jobs report.
Jessica Tarlov
92,000 jobs shed unemployment up to 4.4%. I'm searching, I'm hunting. I'm a glass half full kind of gal. I'm struggling.
Aaron Parnas
Yeah, I am. I am, too. I mean, I, I don't. I don't really see much positivity here at all. I mean, I think, like, and, and even the idea, like, okay, they took out the Ayatollah, okay, that is a positive thing. Great. He's gone. Gone. We. No one liked him. No one should have liked him. Moving on. But the Ayatollah's son is now the head of the regime. It's not like it got any better. And what, you're going to have a regime change war by just bombing the hell out of Iran? When in history have you ever changed a regime without putting boots on the ground? That's never Happened. What, we're gonna arm the Kurds? We failed the Kurds repeatedly throughout American history.
Jessica Tarlov
They still come back to help us, though.
Aaron Parnas
They come back every time. I know, but again, I mean, it's history repeating itself. Same thing that happened in the early 2000s. Again. I read a piece from the Atlantic in August of last year. I think it was from. And it makes a lot of sense today. The piece kind of talked about how Donald Trump is very insulated in this White House, how all he watches is positive coverage of what he does. All of the people around him are just, yes, manning him and just telling him what he's doing is right and a good thing. And then the people he brings in, like the business execs and all of that also, are just, yes, manning him when they're in front of him, because they know that's the only way to curry favor with him. So he set up a system in which he never actually gets real criticism, constructive or not. And so what you have now is a president who took a country to war, an economy in decline, prices through the roof, heading into what arguably is the most important midterm elections for any president in this modern century. Right. If he loses in November, that's the end of any legislative action his administration will be able to take. He'll be a complete lame duck, more so than he already is. And I don't think he really understands that, and I don't think those around him are telling him the right thing. Susie Wiles, based on reports that came out over the past 24 hours, she's looking to get out of Dodge after November. Kristi Noemi's gone. There's going to be major more reshuffling, I think, by this time next year. And Trump himself, I mean, you watch him. He doesn't look happy as much anymore. Like, he. Like. I think he's really declined physically. I think he's declined mentally. I think he's declined in the way that he even wants to do this job. He doesn't seem like he wants to do this job lately. All he's been doing is. It seems like he's been like a glorified tour guide of the Oval Office for whenever someone comes in, he's showing them around, all of these. PISA is a declaration of independence. Let's bring in Mom, Donnie. Let's joke in the drapes, right? Like, the drapes, like. And that's all he's doing. And at the end of the day, the American people are like, what the hell? And it's frustrating For a lot of people. And justifiably so.
Jessica Tarlov
Absolutely. I mean, you know, a component of this that we have to focus on is what the opposition is doing with all of this material. And, and Democrats are largely unified in their messaging about, you know, an unauthorized regime change, war. This is a war of choice, et cetera. How big of a factor do you think what's going on now is going to be in the midterms? And how do you think, how would you rate the Democratic response?
Aaron Parnas
I'm going to be honest with you, I think the Democratic response is actually really good because there really isn't a response. And for the first time, I think Democrats just aren't screwing up. Right. Like, yeah, I don't think they're doing enough to push back in some respects. But to me, I'd rather them just sit silent, sit on their asses and not come out and look like a divided party and have some Democrats support what Trump is doing in Iran and other Democrats oppose it and just create this kind of cluster, sit back, let Trump fail himself, which is what's happening, in my opinion. I don't think Democrats are doing enough. I think Democratic leadership isn't doing enough. I don't think Democratic leadership has been doing enough ever since Trump came back into power. This is not Nancy Pelosi's Democratic Party today. Right. Like Nancy Pelosi is. I, I remember she was whipping votes against the Iraq War and I saw a video of her whipping grand Greg Landsman on the House floor the other day against the vote, the war powers vote. And it was like peak Democrat right there. Like Nancy Pelosi represented the best of, like, Democratic leadership. It's not Nancy Pelosi's Democratic Party today anymore. I think that if Democrats just continue doing what they're doing, they're going to win 40 seats in the House of Representatives. They're going to have a significant majority after November, and they actually may even win the Senate if Democrats come out and start, for example, if Senate Democrats decide to provide more funding for Donald Trump's Department of Defense, which is what's coming. Right. Like some senators are already saying we might be open to funding. We're already in this situation if they go out and vote for it. But that's a big screw up, in my opinion. Like, like actually be a resistance party.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah. It's been interesting to see that, the change on that, even from people, I guess, getting five or six hours of online reaction to being open to the idea of more funding. And I do think that we all need a big reminder that the DoD has been funded to the tune of over $1 trillion. Anyway, between the budget and the reconciliation bill and to your point about how lame this lame duck is going to be become after the midterms, if it goes well for Democrats, Mike Johnson is already scuttling to get another reconciliation bill done because there haven't been enough tax breaks, I guess, for the wealthy. And he's like, I won't be able to starve any more children in the second, the last two years of Donald Trump's administration. I totally agree about Nancy Pelosi. I think Hakeem Jeffries has had a lot of big wins. They're just not as visible as they were or amplified in the same way as Nancy Pelosi. But she is just always on message. I had her on a couple weeks ago, and, you know, she's retiring after this amazing career. I, you know, want to talk about legacy stuff. I want to talk beauty routine. She was like, girl, we are talking about winning elections. Like, I am not talking to you about my hair, which is always perfect. I. I'm sure that you've seen that. Now Trump is talking about his next foreign policy target, which is Cuba. Marco Rubio, very happy boy. He says that the island's communist government is going to fall and claims leaders in Havana are quietly trying to cut a deal with Washington. Let's watch him assigning little Marco his next assignment.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
Marco, you've been doing a fantastic job, and you've been doing a fantastic job on a place called Cuba. What's happening with Cuba is amazing, and we think that we want to finish this one first. But that will be just a question of time before you and a lot of unbelievable people are going to be going back to Cuba, hopefully not to stay.
Jessica Tarlov
I love that Inter Miami is just standing behind them. You know, they're like soccer players. Why are we talking about this? Secondly, I do social media brings a lot of joy in the meme game. I love all the Marco Rubio and his next job outfits that they're always posting. Like him as Kristi Noem and Corey Lewis.
Aaron Parnas
He's going to be the ayatollah, too.
Jessica Tarlov
Like, what do you think? Do you think this is legit? That Cuba is next on the list and we're going to do something? Or this is a little bob and weave from Trump.
Aaron Parnas
No, I do think it's legit. I think that Rubio is Trump's shadow president when it comes to foreign policy. Like, this is Rubio as president. This isn't Trump. I don't think Trump does not know who the president of Cuba is today. Right. Like, if you asked Trump who the ayatollah was, the only reason he probably knew who the ayatollah was, because the ayatollah tried to kill him. Otherwise, he probably wouldn't even know who the ayatollah was. Delsey Rodriguez, you think Trump knew who Delsey was before he. She came into power? No. This is all Rubio's kind of shadow presidency. And part of me thinks it's Rubio's. I mean, this has been Rubio's goal for as long as I could remember.
Jessica Tarlov
Florida Republicans are having the time of their life.
Aaron Parnas
But I will say this. Miami Cubans love this. And it will boost their. If Cuba falls and is actually rebuilt in a good way, they're going to gain a lot of Latino support in South Florida. But there is always that pitfall when you're doing regime change, when you're doing these efforts. It doesn't actually seem like the Trump administration wants to actually help any of the people. And I think that's what everyone is missing. Like in Venezuela, great, you got Maduro out. He was awful. But you put Maduro's lackey as the number two. And literally zero has changed for the actual Venezuelan people. Same thing with Iran. Right. Like, you're going to put in someone who may be just as bad, if not worse than the ayatollah that may actually talk to the United States government. Great, you're talking to them and you're giving them oil or access to whatever, but the people are still being hurt. And same thing in Cuba. You may have someone who's willing to communicate with the US Government and do what Trump demands, because otherwise we'll bomb the hell out of them, which is what he's doing in Iran. But does it actually help the Cuban people? And the answer is probably not. You can't just. Just because. And this is something else that, like, really frustrates me. You can get rid of a person. You can't get rid of an ideology. Just because you get rid of the ayatollah or you get rid of the Castro regime doesn't mean you get rid of communism. Or is it? Or you get rid of some of the religious extremism that we've seen in Iran, you don't just get rid of that. And a lot of the people there also, there are plenty of people in Iran who supported what the Ayatollah did. There are plenty of people in Cuba who support the Castros. It is very difficult to change people's minds and change like the way people think. It's very easy to change the person in charge.
Jessica Tarlov
Well, especially if you are not offering them an alternative that's appealing. And we are not going to be taking hundreds of thousands, if not millions of refugees into the country when this is the most, you know, closed border president slash xenophobic that we've had. So you're completely right. I mean, the interviews with Venezuelans after Maduro was taken out were quite jarring. Or they were like, yeah, are we glad that he's gone? But I'm not going anywhere. Like Americans or the ones who are here are not going back, who have TPS status or become American citizens. And the Venezuelans who are there were like, nothing is really all that different. And the Iranians are in limbo wondering what's going to happen. And also looking at examples of regime change wars from around the region thinking, well, that didn't end so well. Like we had a couple years where we were talking about, you know, girls in sports and job opportunities, but we're all basically back where we started and you guys aren't here and your weapons are being used by bad guys all over the region, which I. Yeah, it's incredible how much of our stuff is being used by bad guys that we just left behind.
Aaron Parnas
It is very easy for all of these so called foreign policy experts and consultants and people in government to sit on their high horse in the United States, States of America and say it's okay to go into another country. It's very easy to say that it's a whole different reality to actually be on the ground and see what's happening to that other country. Afghanistan. Case in point, right? Years after the United States military went in, we now have one of the most repressive regimes for women and girls in the entire world. With the Taliban. The same thing could very well happen in Iran. You could have something worse than what you have right now. So I think that things are easy said actually seeing the impacts of it. You're never gonna see what's happening in Iran happen in the United States of America. And people are very privileged to live in a country like the United States. So I think a lot of these experts need to shut up, in my opinion.
Jessica Tarlov
All right. But not US Experts, though. We're not US Experts. We're gonna take a quick break. Stay with us.
Kara Swisher
Hi, this is Kara Swisher and this week on my podcast on with Kara Swisher, I talked to California Governor G. Newsom While he hasn't officially announced a run for president yet, he's telegraphing it all the time. It's exhausting. He's also got a new book out, which is what you do when you're running for president. It's called Young man in a Hurry. I recently interviewed him live in San Francisco. Have a listen.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
The problem with the Democratic Party so often is we appear weak and we've got to be stronger and we've got to be more assertive. And so that's, you know, it's the spirit, I think, that is required of this moment.
Kara Swisher
I've known Gavin Newsom since he was mayor of San Francisco a million years ago, a million hair gels ago. And he's a really interesting and compelling politician. He's done a lot of things in his career, and this one, this run for presidency, which is going to happen, is among the most interesting. You can find a full conversation wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube, obviously. Be sure to follow and subscribe to on with Kara Swisher for more.
Aaron Parnas
After decapitation strikes against Iran's leadership, what can we expect next in the escalating war?
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
If there is going to be a next strongman in Iran, what kind of strongman will that person likely be? I don't think that there's going to be another powerful cleric supreme leader.
Aaron Parnas
I'm John Finer. And I'm Jake Sullivan and we're the hosts of the Long Game, a weekly national security podcast. This week we sit down with Kareem Sajapour to discuss what to expect in
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
this next phase of the war against Iran. The episode episode's out now. Search for and follow the Long Game
Aaron Parnas
wherever you get your podcasts.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
Are Democrats their own biggest problem?
Aaron Parnas
You know, a party becomes defined by who their central figure, who their quarterback becomes. Democrats haven't really anointed a effective quarterback since Barack Obama, pretty much.
Podcast Host / Narrator (Various)
And this week the Atlantic staff writer Mark Leibovich joins me to discuss the state of the Democratic Party and which races to keep an eye out for this midterm election. The episode is out now. Search and follow. Stay tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.
Jessica Tarlov
Welcome back. President Trump fired Kristi Noem this week and tapped Mark Wayne Mullen as his pick to take over the massive agency. Let's get a taste of our next DHS secretary.
Mark Wayne Mullen
Here's a question that is considered a terrorist organization that is flooding our streets with drugs as killed killing Americans every single day. They're being proactive on it. Good on them.
Jessica Tarlov
Are we?
Mark Wayne Mullen
Doubting that these drug dealers are actually drug dealers. We think they're just out there fishing. Do we doubt that this is a terrorist organization that's killing thousands and thousands of people on our streets? What are we questioning here? These individuals don't care about the lives of our friends and families. Why do we care if we take them out in international water?
Jessica Tarlov
Cut to they actually were fishermen. We just don't talk about it anymore. I had almost forgotten about that interaction. I don't think it's one of his dumbest, but does show a willingness to parrot the administration's talking points, no matter how bad they are. What are your Secretary Mullen in waiting thoughts?
Aaron Parnas
I'm going to make a prediction. I don't know that Mullen will ever be secretary. That is going to be my prediction. Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
He already has John Fetterman's vote.
Aaron Parnas
It's not about votes. I'll tell you what's going to happen. Trump says he's going to be appointed by March 31. Okay. The Senate doesn't move that fast. There's no way he's going to have hearings, committee votes and a full Senate vote by the end of the month. It just I don't think will happen. And I could totally see a scenario where that doesn't happen. And Kristi Noem's gone and he appoints Acting Secretary Chad Wolff, for example, someone who worked in his first administration, who's been loyal to him outside of the White House, and then kind of just keeps Chad Wolf in power. I don't know that Mullen ever actually becomes secretary. He may very well be, but I don't know that he will be. And if he does, I mean, I saw a comment. It was like when. When you're like, child, what is it called? You get like, crap all over you and then you just change clothes and
Jessica Tarlov
it's like someone, like, shits their pants, but they change their shirt. Yeah, that's what it was. Yeah.
Aaron Parnas
I mean, you're getting someone who's more conservative than Kristi Nomez. And I always say this, like Trump. It was Trump versus DeSantis. DeSantis to me, was a more competent version of Trump. DeSantis actually would be able to get more things done than Trump, in my opinion. Same thing with Mullen versus Nome. He is just a more competent version of her, in my opinion, in the sense that he'll go in there, he'll sound the way he needs to sound, he'll talk the way he needs to talk, and he'll be more radical. Than she ever was.
Jessica Tarlov
That's interesting. I mean, I am a fan of more competency, though. It's a very low bar. Having watched a lot of interviews of his. I mean, he's even confused this week about whether we're at war. I don't know if you saw that, where he's going back and forth on himself on it. But I do think it's a good thing that Kristi Noem's been pushed out. I know she has some consolation prize job. I don't know if it has budget for Corey Lewandowski.
Aaron Parnas
Shield of the Americas.
Jessica Tarlov
Shield of the Americas. It'd be interesting, though, if she runs for Senate. I think she gets rounds. Yeah.
Aaron Parnas
So I think she'd win.
Jessica Tarlov
A test of her popularity, you think? Aren't they a little sick of being embarrassed at this point?
Aaron Parnas
Yeah, but I think she'd win. I mean, I think she's pretty popular in South Dakota, and I don't know. And if she ran against Rounds, I don't know that rounds would run. Right. Like, that's another thing. You may see him bow out.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, well, still mad about what Steve Danes did. So tricksy and evil. Okay.
Mark Wayne Mullen
Of course.
Jessica Tarlov
You know, but we said it was bad then, too.
Aaron Parnas
Yeah, it's bad on both sides.
Jessica Tarlov
It's bad on both sides. Don't behave like that. Other big news and very much on your beat. Pam Bondi is going to have to testify before the Oversight Committee. The files relating to the unverified claim that Donald Trump sexually assaulted a minor have been released. So I think 37 pages are still missing from that. What do you think about that claim, which stems from a 2019 interview? And what do you think Pam Bondi coming to testify about the Epstein files means?
Aaron Parnas
Yeah, I mean, I actually texted a few members of Congress after the subpoena went through, and I was like, your first question has to be, is the Dow above 50,000? That is the first question they have to ask her when she comes in front of the Oversight Committee. Because the Dow is no longer 48.
Jessica Tarlov
Right.
Aaron Parnas
It's even lower now.
Jessica Tarlov
Okay. Losing money as we record.
Aaron Parnas
As we record. I think that her being subpoenaed for oversight is kind of bit of a egg on the face moment for doj, because it's not just like one or two Republicans who broke. It's five. And I think that number will likely only grow if she gets up there and she just does a repeat of what she did in front of Judiciary and doesn't really answer any questions. The problem with oversight, what people don't realize is that this is the committee where they stick kind of like the firebrands of each party on that, like the freshman firebrands who just want to go and, like, throw bombs. That's what they. That's where they put them. And so you have some of the, in a way, the craziest members on this committee, from Nancy Mace to Scott Perry to Anna Polina Luna. These are, like, you're not going to change their minds on Epstein. Like, either Pam. Bonnie is going to come and answer their questions, and if she doesn't, they're going to vote Holder in contempt. This is. This is very different. So Pam Bondi should tread carefully now as far as the allegations from 2019 and what was released. I'm still going through some of them. The allegations are horrific. If they're true, they were, at least in the FBI's mind, legitimate enough to warrant not one, not two, but three interviews with this woman who accused the President of the United States. After that third interview, I don't know what happened to the investigation. There was some reporting that they found her not to be credible. Whatever it is, I don't know. It's not like you have a document saying what the FBI ended up doing. It's also based on the third interview, it's unclear whether or not she gave them any more information. Cause they asked her about specific contacts with Trump at the end, and she said, essentially, what's the point of me giving you the information if you're not gonna do anything about it? But she should be talked to again. Right. Like, investigated again. Like, chase down every lead and make sure whether it is substantiated or not. And let's. Cause the allegations, they're. They're very bad and they're very horrific. And what's something interesting to me is that this accusation originally was circulating that it happened in South Carolina. That was like what a lot of people on the Internet were originally saying. And then we're kind of throwing water on the fact that Trump. Why was he in South Carolina in the 80s? But if you read the documents, it didn't happen in South Carolina. It actually happened in New York, which makes it a little more credible, in my opinion, and feasible. But like I said, I don't know what's true and what's not. I just know that it's really horrific and should be chased down.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, let's hope that we're moving to a new era on that front. I'm not holding my breath for it, but it does feel like a Big deal that Pam Bondi is going to have to come and testify under oath, and hopefully they have the same energy for her that they did for Hillary Clinton. Before we go, what's one thing that makes you rage and one thing we should calm down about?
Aaron Parnas
The thing that's making me rage this week is D.C. weather, because it's about to be 80 degrees in two days, and then four days later, it's going to be snowing. Allegedly. Allegedly. And so I'm just trying to figure out what the hell is happening, what to wear. Well, that and, like, whether to put my clothes away or not. One thing to calm down about. I said this before, but there is nothing to calm down about in this day and age with war and everything, like, and the economy. And I really don't think people should be calm. I think people should be angry and make their anger known.
Jessica Tarlov
I think being active is important. However that manifests for you. We are all part of. I don't want to just say resistance, but the check right on the government, and that's important. Also, everyone should watch Love Story. I'm so into it.
Aaron Parnas
What's that?
Jessica Tarlov
The JFK Jr. And Carolyn Bessette story
Aaron Parnas
on Hulu had no idea. It's out. I'll go watch it, I guess.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, I think it's now the most streamed show that hulu has had. 25 million hours or something. Anyway, I'm very into it. It might be a native New Yorker thing, and I grew up in Tribeca and he lived in Tribeca, but. Okay, if you need a break from the news, Love Story is fabulous.
Aaron Parnas
And if you need a break from the news, watch more political videos. I got it.
Jessica Tarlov
And this one in particular. All right, I will see you next week. And as a reminder, Raging Moderates is now five days a week, new episodes dropping every weekday evening on YouTube, Apple, podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else.
Aaron Parnas
Sam.
Episode Title: Trump Admits More Americans May Die in Iran War — Voters Are Turning on Him
Hosts: Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network
This episode of Raging Moderates breaks down three headline-grabbing stories at the intersection of U.S. politics and world affairs:
With their signature mix of dry humor and exasperated centrism, Tarlov and Parnas explore how these stories are playing out in Washington and what they signal for the future of American policy and politics.
[01:32–09:24]
Trump’s Admission: Trump openly acknowledges the likelihood of further American deaths in Iran and expresses his desire for “Iran’s leadership structure gone,” while ruling out the Ayatollah’s son as a successor.
No Plan, No Positives:
“This is what happens when you don't have a plan, or rather when you accidentally or intentionally bomb your plan B, C, and D and kill them too.” (02:42 – Aaron Parnas)
"It is slim pickings if you are looking for an article or a piece of reporting that is positive about what's going on, and not because they're biased, but because they're actually doing jobs." (04:22 – Jessica Tarlov)
Historical Parallels:
Parnas draws explicit comparisons to Iraq War justifications, pointing out history repeating itself with optimistic timeframes that extend as conditions deteriorate.
Impact on Ordinary Americans:
The hosts note the immediate economic impact (oil up to $86/barrel, risk of $150/barrel), scattered repatriation efforts for Americans in danger, communication failures at the State Department, and Gulf allies reconsidering economic cooperation.
International Dimension:
Russia is providing Iran with targeting information, prompting fears of the U.S. being outmaneuvered on multiple fronts.
“This war is turning into a forever war. Trump is motivated by... I don't know what. Other than killing the guy who almost killed him.”
(03:31 – Aaron Parnas)
[09:24–13:01]
Trump’s Isolation and Decline:
"He doesn't look happy as much anymore. I think he's really declined physically. I think he's declined mentally." (08:36 – Aaron Parnas)
Democratic Strategy:
“Democrats just aren't screwing up...I'd rather them just sit silent, sit on their asses and not come out and look like a divided party.” (10:00 – Aaron Parnas)
Contrast with Pelosi Era:
Both hosts contrast Nancy Pelosi’s whip-smart leadership during Iraq, as compared to today’s less forceful Democratic leadership.
[13:02–16:10]
“I love all the Marco Rubio and his next job outfits that they're always posting..." (13:34 – Jessica Tarlov)
“Rubio is Trump's shadow president when it comes to foreign policy. This isn't Trump. I don't think Trump does not know who the president of Cuba is today.” (13:56 – Aaron Parnas)
“It is very difficult to change people's minds and...the way people think. It's very easy to change the person in charge.” (15:12 – Aaron Parnas)
[16:10–18:18]
"It's very easy to say that it's a whole different reality to actually be on the ground and see what's happening to that other country.” (17:26 – Aaron Parnas)
[20:35–24:02]
Markwayne Mullen's Nomination:
Tarlov plays a Mullen soundbite equating drug dealers with terrorists and jokingly highlights the risks of such blanket rhetoric.
Parnas is skeptical Mullen will actually become secretary (predicting bureaucratic delays) and opines he’s just a more capable and radical version of Noem:
“You're getting someone who's more conservative than Kristi Nomez...he'll talk the way he needs to talk, and he'll be more radical than she ever was.” (22:34 – Aaron Parnas)
Kristi Noem’s Prospects:
[24:06–27:13]
Context of New Releases:
"The allegations are horrific. If they're true, they were, at least in the FBI's mind, legitimate enough to warrant not one, not two, but three interviews..." (25:17 – Aaron Parnas)
Committee Dynamics:
[27:13–28:49]
"There is nothing to calm down about in this day and age with war and everything...I really don't think people should be calm. I think people should be angry and make their anger known." (27:54 – Aaron Parnas)
“That’s what happens in war…Like, Fox News, all of these more conservative news organizations would be calling for impeachment, 25th amendment.”
— Aaron Parnas (03:53)
“We traded in a lot of Western allies for [Gulf allies], [and] our Gulf allies…are now talking about withdrawing from contracts with us and canceling future economic investments.”
— Jessica Tarlov (05:08)
"He [Trump] doesn’t seem like he wants to do this job lately. All he’s been doing is—it seems like he’s been like a glorified tour guide of the Oval Office..."
— Aaron Parnas (08:54)
“Democrats just aren't screwing up. …Just sit silent, sit on their asses and not come out and look like a divided party and have some Democrats support what Trump is doing in Iran and other Democrats oppose it and just create this kind of cluster.”
— Aaron Parnas (09:57)
"You can get rid of a person. You can't get rid of an ideology."
— Aaron Parnas (15:12)
Edgy, pragmatic, and moderately exasperated, the hosts maintain a balance between cynical humor and urgent seriousness (“I have been trying to focus at least some of my energy on the what could go right argument, because I would like this to go right…” – Tarlov, 04:09). The general message: The center is mad, and it’s time to speak up—because staying moderate shouldn’t mean staying meek.
Recommended for anyone seeking clear-eyed, centrist commentary on the most pressing developments in US policy and politics, without partisan spin but with a side of gallows humor.