Trump Blinks on China

Summary

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov: "Trump Blinks on China"

Released: May 13, 2025 | Host/Author: Vox Media Podcast Network

In this episode of Raging Moderates, bestselling author, professor, and entrepreneur Scott Galloway engages in a lively discussion with Tim Miller, a political strategist and co-founder of The Bulwark. The conversation delves into pressing political issues from a centrist perspective, focusing on recent developments involving former President Donald Trump, U.S. trade policies, immigration, and the state of the Democratic Party. The episode also touches upon the historic election of the first American Pope, providing a multifaceted analysis of current political dynamics.

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1. Trump and the Qatari Bribe Scandal

Scott Galloway opens the episode by addressing the scandal involving Trump potentially receiving a $400 million bribe from Qatar in the form of a luxury jet.

• Trump's Enticement to Qatar:
  • "Trump Blinks on China..." – [05:48]
• Implications of Corruption:
  • Galloway critiques the blatant corruption, highlighting how it undermines U.S. integrity.
  • "Taking a $400 million bribe from another country... is insane." – Galloway [06:15]

Tim Miller further elaborates on the hypocrisy and corruption, emphasizing the damage to geopolitical relationships and domestic policies.

• "It's about corruption and hypocrisy... taking away green cards while accepting bribes from the same nation funding protests." – Miller [06:45]

2. U.S. Trade Policies: Tariffs on the UK and China

The discussion shifts to Trump's recent trade agreements and tariff adjustments.

• Tariffs on the UK:
  • "Trump announced a new trade framework with the UK that lowers tariffs, but only on luxury cars..." – Galloway [15:37]
• Temporary Truce with China:
  • "US and China agreed to a 90-day truce, rolling back some tariffs." – Galloway [16:02]
  • "The US will slash its tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% while China lowers its own tariffs from 125% to 10%." – Galloway [16:08]

Tim Miller criticizes the partial rollback, arguing that it imposes a 20% tax on American consumers without substantial benefits.

• "We still put a 20% sales tax increase on Americans for nothing." – Miller [16:37]

3. U.S.-China Relations and Global Economic Impacts

Galloway and Miller explore the broader ramifications of the U.S. trade policies on global economics and America's standing.

• Economic Consequences:
  • "US becoming the economy of toxic uncertainty... lowers the price-earnings multiple." – Galloway [24:39]
  • "Less foreign trust in the U.S. as a trading partner leads to increased costs for businesses and consumers." – Galloway [24:45]

Miller highlights China's strategic advantage gained from these policies, noting increased global trust in China over the U.S.

• "We've eliminated any soft power we have... China fills that void." – Miller [27:30]

4. Immigration Policies and Deportations

The episode critically examines the Trump administration's aggressive immigration tactics, including deportations to Libya and other countries with questionable human rights records.

• Extreme Deportation Measures:
  • "A federal judge blocked the planned deportation of detainees to Libya." – Galloway [32:17]
  • "Two young men from El Salvador, brought to the U.S. as children, are being deported despite having no ties to their home country." – Miller [32:45]

Tim Miller argues that these policies are primarily fear tactics intended to deter future migrants, despite their moral and ethical implications.

• "It's a signal to the world that people aren't welcome here anymore." – Miller [32:30]
  • "These deportations are immoral and an affront to American values." – Miller [35:15]

5. Democratic Party Weaknesses and Leadership

The conversation transitions to the challenges facing the Democratic Party, including leadership deficits and disconnect from the working class.

• Lack of Strong Candidates:
  • "Democrats have a weak bench... leaders like Jeffries and Schumer are inadequate." – Galloway [48:12]
  • "Emerging candidates like Wes Moore and John Fetterman have potential but face significant hurdles." – Miller [49:04]

Scott Galloway expresses concern over the party's inability to connect with a broader electorate, emphasizing the need for candidates who resonate with non-elite voters.

• "Democrats feel very weak and disconnected... they need to recruit people more aligned with working-class interests." – Galloway [45:25]

6. Historic Election of the First American Pope

Highlighting a significant event, Galloway and Miller discuss the election of Cardinal Robert Previs as Pope Leo XIV, the first American to lead the Catholic Church.

• Papal Message and Implications:
  • "Pope Leo XIV called for peace in Ukraine and Gaza, emphasizing care for the vulnerable." – Galloway [54:26]
• Potential Progressive Path:
  • "His background suggests a continuation of Pope Francis's humanistic values." – Miller [55:00]

Tim Miller reflects on the positive reception within his personal circles and the potential for the new Pope to influence American values positively.

• "He's someone who cares about humanity, in contrast to the self-centeredness seen in current U.S. leadership." – Miller [55:01]

7. Personal Insights and Emotional Impact

Towards the end of the episode, Scott and Tim share personal reflections on their lives, the emotional toll of political turmoil, and coping mechanisms.

• Scott Galloway's Reflections:
  • "Politics is really rattling me and taking a toll on me emotionally." – Galloway [67:02]
• Tim Miller's Coping Strategies:
  • "I compartmentalize, channel my anger into content, and spend quality time with family." – Miller [67:15]

Galloway appreciates Miller's authenticity and courage, emphasizing the importance of their dialogue.

• "Your voice is really important... I genuinely appreciate that." – Galloway [70:11]

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Conclusion

In this episode, Scott Galloway and Tim Miller provide a thorough and engaging analysis of several critical political issues facing the United States. From the ethical implications of Trump's dealings with Qatar to the broader economic and geopolitical consequences of U.S. trade policies, the discussion underscores the complex interplay between domestic policies and global perceptions. The episode also sheds light on deep-seated challenges within the Democratic Party and offers a nuanced perspective on the historic election of an American Pope. Personal anecdotes and emotional reflections further humanize the political discourse, making the conversation relatable and impactful for listeners.

Notable Quotes:

• "Taking a $400 million bribe from another country... is insane." – Scott Galloway [06:15]
• "We've become the land or the economy of toxic uncertainty." – Scott Galloway [24:39]
• "These deportations are immoral and an affront to American values." – Tim Miller [35:15]
• "Your voice is really important... I genuinely appreciate that." – Scott Galloway [70:11]

Key Takeaways:

• The Trump-Qatari scandal highlights significant corruption and ethical concerns within U.S. politics.
• Recent U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs on the UK and China, have far-reaching economic and geopolitical consequences.
• Aggressive immigration strategies under the Trump administration raise moral questions and impact America's global standing.
• The Democratic Party faces leadership challenges and needs to better connect with the working class to regain strength.
• The election of the first American Pope, Pope Leo XIV, may signify a shift towards more progressive and humanistic values within the Catholic Church.
• Personal resilience and authentic dialogue are crucial in navigating the emotional toll of political instability.

This comprehensive discussion offers valuable insights for listeners seeking to understand the complexities of current political landscapes and encourages a centrist approach to navigating these turbulent times.

Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

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[Tim Miller]

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So what happens to all the genetic data for all those Americans if the company goes away? That's this week on Explain it to Me. New episodes every Sunday, wherever you get your pile.

[Scott Galloway]

Podcasts. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. Jessica is jet setting across Europe this week, which I think is awfully nervy given she's a new employee. Our vacation policy is you don't take vacation the first couple years here at a Galloway sponsored corporation. But anyways, she has decided to head to Europe where I think she's in Italy or something like that. But our loss is our gain. On with us is literally our favorite side piece. The Bulwarks own Tim Miller. Tim is literally our favorite three and threesome. We have become the same person or the same podcast. Tim, if I'm on something, you're on it before you're on with Jess lot. Anyways, it's great to have you, Tim. How are you?

[Tim Miller]

I love being a third, you know, so I really appreciate it. You know, it spices things up and we are, we are becoming the same person. I had your sidekick, Ed.

[Scott Galloway]

That's right.

[Tim Miller]

On my Gen Z podcast like last week. I love Ed. I'm thinking about kicking my co host Cameron K off and replacing him with Ed. So if you have any problems with him, if he's taking too much vacation, I might poach him.

[Scott Galloway]

I watched that. How old is your young guy?

[Tim Miller]

I love how we both 24.

[Scott Galloway]

He's 24. Wow.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Scott Galloway]

Ed is 26. Yeah, but you're a kid too. I think it's more adorable because I have the grandfather thing. You're just like the big brother.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, Little big brother vibe. Gotta keep making them behave.

[Scott Galloway]

There you go. Are you in Nolens today? Where are you?

[Tim Miller]

I'm in New Orleans. Yeah. I was in New York over the weekend, back in New Orleans. I'm here for couple weeks. Then we got a live show in Chicago and Nashville. If any raging moderates listeners want to come May 27th and 28th. Look at me. I'm just plugging, baby.

[Scott Galloway]

Tell me a little bit about the live shows. How many people do you get? What's the business model? Do you enjoy it?

[Tim Miller]

I just lied. It's May 28th and 29th. 28th in Chicago, 29th in Nashville. I love them. We love them. We are getting, I think, almost 1,000 people in Chicago and like close to like 400 in Nashville. Kind of a small, you know, big market, small market thing. And we haven't quite figured out on the business. Scott Brain. We haven't, like really quite figured out how to monetize them in a way that is that useful to the bottom line. But I think it's still useful because it's cool for the community. People love it. They like, especially in kind of our world. People love. Like when I see people on the street, I'm sure you get this too. It's just like, I just like listening to you because I feel like I'm going insane. And it makes me feel sane to listen. And so then it makes you feel even more sane when you're around other sane people that you can kind of vent to about the craziness of the world. And so I think it's good for the community side of things. I like being out with the people. I feel a little bit disconnected sometimes when I'm up here in my hole in New Orleans, I can't leave my little studio hole. And so it's nice to have human contact. One of my colleagues, Jonathan Last, doesn't like human contact, so it's not a plus for him, but it is a plus for me. It's a lot. Kind of invigorating. So I dig it. I mean, I think that we only do maybe six a year, seven a year. So that's a lot. It would become a burden if we were doing a real tour, like a rock and roll tour.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. I've always said that it's really a shame that these LLMs and AI is crawling the digital world and not crawling real world because I find online people not so nice. But people out in the wild couldn't be more lovely.

[Tim Miller]

Totally. Well, it's not because people are cowards. And so there are some people that you see in public that are lovely, that are nuts online. Some of it is that. And others of it is just like online draws in the people who want to be engaged. For the most part, present company excluded, are like, I think it draws people in with mental illness. I don't know. For example, I just think back to, you know, something like after the Biden debate, when I was super critical of him. Cause it was just obvious. The commenters on my social media and on the blog were really mad at me. Like, the lefty commenters, they were like.

[Scott Galloway]

No, don't you understand the assignment? I got a lot of that too.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. But then out in the real world, or on my email or text message in private communications, everybody was like, thank God you're saying this. I mean, this is crazy. Like, that was insane. I couldn't even watch it. It was so painful to watch. Right. And that's just one example. There are a million examples of this. So I do think that social media kind of draws in the most mentally ill people to be the most active. I don't know, I maybe need to reflect on that myself, possibly.

[Scott Galloway]

But also I think that just being alone makes you more mentally ill. It makes you more isolated and makes you less empathetic and more angry. And I think those are. The people have a disproportionate share or voice online because quite frankly, they're home and they've got not a lot else to do. I think a lot of what ails us is the social isolation and the fact that we don't recognize we're mammals. And, you know, you put an orc on a tank alone, it literally goes crazy. And, you know, a cape buffalo gets excommunicated from the herd. It usually goes crazier, gets eaten and dies.

[Tim Miller]

Totally agree with that. I could not be more human contact, just pro human contact. It's just another thing that, you know, we are aligned on.

[Scott Galloway]

Good. So in today's episode, we're going to be discussing the Qataris may gift Trump a luxury jet. Tell me that thing probably doesn't look like an Iraqi whorehouse inside. What do you think the decor looks like inside?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, it probably looks like the Uday and Kousse suite in the palace for sure. And there's so much horrifying about the story, but the funny part of it is, I guess it was parked at the West Palm Beach FBO in February, and Trump was like, I want to go check that out. He's like, immediately drawn to the opulence of the Qatari whorehouse in the sky. And that, I guess, is what started us down this path to this bribe coming through. And that is just very Trumpy, a very Trumpy origin story. But it's really. Obviously, it's just bad on the corruption front. Like the idea that our country should be taking a $400 million bribe for another country that we have a complicated geopolitical relationship with is insane. Simultaneously to that, if the corruption of the government part isn't bad enough, Eric Trump signed a deal for a golf course in Qatar for, I think, 5 billion. So there's private corruption on top of the public corruption that is happening with Qatar. And it's particularly jarring. And I think it'll be interesting to see what the kind of pro Israel right folks say about this. Qata was funding Hamas and was funding the campus protests. So in addition to just the corruption part, there's the hypocrisy of we are currently taking away the green cards and jailing people who participated in the campus protests at the same time as we're taking an Air Force One bribe from the country that was funding the same protests. And the whole thing is just preposterous.

[Scott Galloway]

I have a chat group or a text group with some of my friends from the fraternity at ucla, and the majority of them are Jewish, and a lot of them voted for Trump. I think most of them voted for Trump because, quite frankly, he's seen as viewed as more resolute on Israel. And I said, be clear. You know, this guy likes Jews the way that hardcore evangelicals like Jews. If you kind of go one layer deeper, their plan for us is not all that great. You know, it's all about the Rapture. When Jesus comes back, then they decide to kill most of us. And the fact that essentially we have the Qataris giving the president a $400 million plane and sort of turning this into kind of the ultimate frequent flyer program. I mean, first off, it's embarrassing that America needs to take a plane manufactured in the US from the Qatari government, that that's where we are. But also the notion that you have the primary sponsor of Hamas and the political mouthpiece, and you have a country that has given about 4 point, I think $8 billion of the 14 billion we have received from foreign governments to sponsor, quote, unquote, Middle Eastern studies departments. I mean, just this, Jews have to get past the fact that this notion that the president is going after universities because of anti Semitism is just fucking ridiculous. It has nothing to do with antisemitism. It's him attacking progressive institutions and trying to implement thought leadership that if he really cared about anti Semitism, he wouldn't be taking $400 million bribes from the primary sponsor of a group that murdered 1200 Jews. And I'm like, you guys don't see this? You don't see the inconsistency here and that this isn't about. I mean we have totally become at this point, pay for play. The question I would put forward to.

[Tim Miller]

You, do they see it has the text chain fired up since last night?

[Scott Galloway]

What they see is they see that it's problematic. What they see more, Tim is one of the guys in our group who's this wonderful high integrity guy, has this great small business that does specialty products. You know those products. You go to a conference and you see those banners and the mugs and the water bottle with logos. He has that kind of business and he does.

[Tim Miller]

I.

[Scott Galloway]

It's a great business. 50 million bucks, good living for two or 300 people. Put kids through college on it. It's a family business and its business is basically shut down overnight because of the ridiculous, sclerotic, reckless like approach to negotiating where we're negotiating against ourselves and both sides are losing around China. And my friends are very, I don't want to say economically focused. Is that, is that fair? I'd say they're more focused on America as a platform for prosperity. I think they're like most voters. They think about who's going to put more money in my pocket. They think that essentially Washington is feckless and useless around social issues and they're focused on who they think is better for the economy. And to have kind of one of us, have one of our close friends, business basically just turned off like it was a tap and threatened a multi generational business. I think that hits hard. I think that hits them at home. The question I would have for you is I'm kind of. I want to move beyond the part of the program where we're like screaming into TikTok about the corruption here and the obvious fraud or whatever you want to call it.

[Tim Miller]

I have like seven more minutes of TikTok bits though. But it's fine. We can move on quicker than you wanted. It's your show.

[Scott Galloway]

I guess I want to move to the part of the program where how do the Democrats become the party and not fucking around. And this is my idea. And I'm curious what you think that we should draft legislation, the Foreign enemies Act, Part 2, 2.0 that says if you're operating black sites in your country, El Salvador, if you're trying to bribe our public officials, Qatar, even if the president at that moment agrees with it. It doesn't mean you're not guilty of a crime or a violation of Emoluments act or whatever. And in three years and nine months, we are going to implement significant economic sanctions and rethink our geopolitical relationship with you. And also be clear, in America, the White House and the branches of government or Congress tends to turn over. I don't think there's any shaming the Trump administration and his acolytes. So I'm about how do we start sending a chill down the backbone of some of these foreign governments and also some of the lower level people of these organizations that say if you're illegally incarcerating people, whether the president or whether the current head of ICE says that is okay, it doesn't mean you're not committing a crime. I'm trying to figure out how we quite frankly move from the strongly worded letter to being a little bit more aggressive. Any ideas or thoughts?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I do. I have a couple thoughts on that. I was literally just talking with Bill Kristol about just on the Qatari plane thing. Again, this is more of a strongly worded letter side of things and I have additional thoughts on top of it. But I do think just at minimum, somebody in the House among the Democrats should try to force through a privileged resolution creating a vote on the new Air Force One, make the Republicans actually vote to cock ratify this. You have a majority, right? Just say, look, if you guys want to take a $400 million bribe from the funder of Hamas, then put your money where your mouth is and vote for it. Because we're already seeing everybody from Ari Fleischer, who is Bush's spokesperson, who's been pro Trump, to Laura Loomer, the insane MAGA conspiracy theorist, to the free press, which has been kind of like anti, anti Trump. The Bari Weiss outfit, all of them are out this morning criticizing the Qatar plane thing today. So I would at least force these Republicans to actually have to codify it. That's one the thing I liked about your El Salvador idea, legal is not my background. So I don't have a lot of deep thoughts on how you can scare people into feeling like they might go to jail, though I like where your head's at on that. Economically, though, I think it would make sense for Democratic leaders either in or out of government right now to be talking with the EU And Carney and the guy just got reelected in Australia about isolating El Salvador and saying that when we come back in charge, we'll isolate El Salvador too. We will turn you into Nicaragua or Venezuela if you want to. If you want to be completely isolated from the world community. I know you're very happy about this deal you've done with Donald Trump and his crime family, but they're not going to be around forever. And if you want the El Salvador economy to look like the North Korea, Nicaragua or Venezuela economy, then keep going down this path of having, you know, of violating the Human Rights Council and what they've already signed and agreed to. You cannot be part of the liberal, small l liberal world of nations. If you are going to put somebody in a hole in a torture camp and not give them access to a lawyer, that's a no go. And we'll stop doing trade with you and we'll stop doing tourism with you. And it would be hard to actually impact the El Salvador economy in a big way without the US Being involved. But you could start to lay the groundwork for down for it in a way that might make Bukele start to think twice.

[Scott Galloway]

I think we've got to say to these folks, look, the president does not provide blanket immunity from economic sanctions or even criminality. Just to say, look, you're right, you're good for three years, eight months and two weeks. But after that, be clear, if the Democrats get control back, which there's always a good chance at some point they will, it's going to be really ugly for you because I think we've got to go after the infrastructure and the, the enablers and the co conspirators at this point as opposed to, because it's just pretty clear we're not going to shame him or our current branches of government who have been weaponized and politicized. That's just not an effective strategy. So let's move on to the tariffs here. All right, so back in Washington, Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Chairman Powell warned that Trump's escalating trade war could drive the US towards stagflation. That's probably a word you don't know because you're too young. They haven't had it since the 70s.

[Tim Miller]

I read about it.

[Scott Galloway]

You've read about it?

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean, as a Reagan fan in high school Republicans, people talked about how he ran against stagflation. So I'm familiar with it in that context.

[Scott Galloway]

So it's this toxic mix of rising prices and rising unemployment where basically interest rates go up and the economy slows down and stagflation is sort of a step or a bridge to a depression. But on Thursday, Trump announced a new trade framework with the UK that lowers tariffs, but only on luxury cars, including Rolls Royce and Bentley. Well, thank God.

[Tim Miller]

And plane engines I think got thrown in there too. I think Rolls Royce has given us some plane engines too.

[Scott Galloway]

Toys including Barbie and Hot wheels will face 100% tariff. Then over the weekend there was a surprise detour. The US and China agreed to a 90 day truce, temporarily rolling back some of the steep tariffs that had been hammering both economies. By May 14, the US will slash its tariff on Chinese goods from 145 to 30% while China will lower its own tariffs on American products from 125% to just 10%. The move helped calm global markets, but it's anyone guess if the pause will hold. They now have 90 days to make a deal. What do you think will come out of this? What's your impression of what's happened as of this morning? Tim?

[Tim Miller]

Well, for starters, obviously Trump blinked and had very serious concerns about the economy. I mean, if you just look at the broad contours of this. So a 30% tariff now in China is 20 percentage points higher than it was under buy. So it was at 10 and now it's up to 30. And so we've added a 20% tax on consumers who consume Chinese goods in exchange for nothing. I mean the Chinese didn't even there were some, I guess promises around fentanyl or something in the past. In the first Trump term when they did the tariffs of China, there was also a deal where they were buying our soybeans. And there are other economic and maybe that'll come over the next 90 days, I don't know. But as of right now, we still put a 20% essentially sales tax increase on Americans for nothing, just so that Donnie could feel tough for a little bit. So how does it go from here? I think that I'd be interested in your take on I noticed the markets are up quite a bit today. I just generally think it's maybe my pessimistic nature that the markets and business leaders have been a little bit too sanguine about where we're heading. I think that this is going to be relatively ugly. This move away from a total trade embargo on China has walked us away from the brink of a worst case scenario, economically, at least temporarily. But even still, and if you would have went to any of these people in October and said, hey, I'm from May 2025 and here's what the economic outlook is going to look like, then we're going to have a 10% across the board tariff on everybody, 30% on China increased. The tax bill that you guys were counting on is going to be floundering in Congress and we'll see what happens with that. But we haven't really made any meaningful progress of it yet on May and GDP growth will be down to zero. I feel like everybody would think that was. I feel like business people outside of politics would say that that's almost a worst case imaginable scenario. That's where we are now. But people are kind of spinning in as a positive because it ends up being better than what the worst case scenario was that we were staring down the pike of had they kept the 145% in. So I don't know. What do you make of that?

[Scott Galloway]

Well, he's definitely. So he's pulled the knife out of the back sort of halfway. That's the good news. The bad news is the injury is going to take, I think, decades to he because even worse than the tariffs themselves, which obviously increase consumer prices and slow the economy, I think the most lasting damage here is that we have now become the land or the economy of toxic uncertainty. And that is people don't even know how to plan their businesses. And the U.S. s and P trades at a price earnings multiple of around 26. Meaning for every dollar of profits that our great American companies generate, the world rewards US with $26 in value, which flows right into not only the pockets of shareholders but employees. It lowers interest rates. We can borrow money at a much lower rate. The US Dollar is kind of the reserve currency because everybody wants to buy American stocks. So there's greater demand for dollars. And the US Being the reserve currency globally, literally lowers on average the interest rate that you pay across your student loans, your mortgages and your car loans, somewhere between half and 1%. So that's just literally hundreds of billions of dollars in cost savings that the Americans enjoy because of the fact that our markets trade at a higher multiple on earnings. Now why do they trade at a higher multiple? A lot of reasons. We're more risk aggressive, our technology is better. We have more of these ideas for a culture of entrepreneurship. We have great universities, great intellectual property, but we also have rule of law and consistency. We're seen as good trading partners. We're seen as people we can count on. We're seen as a place where there isn't going to be a ton of corruption, where you come and say, open a bunch of restaurants and then the government shows up one day and says, sorry, we now own them. And that happens in other countries around the world. Rule of law and consistency have been thrown out the window in just 110 days. And you're starting to see a reduction in the price earnings multiple. And I believe over the next several years, we're going to see a rerating down of our price earnings multiple, which effectively increases the costs on all American businesses and consumers because. And the market has sort of said this to a certain extent. The market has said, we don't really know what this guy's going to do, and we don't trust him. 145% tariff. I mean, this is what a bad negotiator is. The first thing we need to do is dispel the myth that this guy is a good business person. He would be wealthier if he'd taken his massive inheritance and invested it in index funds. His business career includes a trail of bankruptcies and unpaid subcontractors. To be fair, he's an outstanding reality talk show host. Made several hundred million dollars hosting and envisioning a reality talk show. As a business person, he's not very good. And in terms of negotiating, he's negotiating him itself at this point, he put on 145% tariff, and then a few days later, without any counter from the Chinese other than, this is unacceptable and we're not even going to talk. He said, they're unsustainable. It's like, well, boss, you're the one that did it. So to go to 145 and then to go down to 30, and effectively what you have is the Chinese are divesting away. This will keep the factories sort of humming in China. This will basically loosen up or cancel the trade embargo for the time being. But also negotiation. You have to understand your leverage and the amount of leverage you have. And what is typical of America and Donald Trump is that we're under the impression we're much more powerful than we are. People think of us as, you know, we're the only customer at the taco stand here, and that without us, they go out of business. We're the third largest trading partner. The association of Southeast Asian nations and the EU are bigger trading partners with China. China has been divesting away from us. This is kind of. I think this is good for them. They get to continue to sell not as many products, but still not the shock that this trade embargo was going to implement on them. At the same time, they will slowly but surely continue to divest away from us. And that is what the whole world is Tim, the whole world is rerouting their supply chain around the United States, not even because of tariffs, but because they don't know how to plan their business with us because of this toxic uncertainty. And I think these that resupplying or that rerouting of the supply chain will take years, if not decades to re heal. And I do think the Americans have taken for granted the American public of just how inexpensive our goods are because of the supply chain that runs through the US of every major economy because they trust us and think there's rule of law and those things are no longer a given with us. The scariest stat I've seen is that I think it was Pew or the Hoover. Some polling organization did a poll of global citizens, took a statistically significant sampling, and for the first time in the history, more people around the world think that China is a greater force for good in the world than the US which says to me people are much more inclined to do business with China than they are with the US and as someone who has run businesses, I've run businesses my whole life, always been global businesses because they've been strategy and brand firms. When I walk in a meet with LVMH or Samsung or, I don't know, Tata Motors, we're taken seriously. And also when they do business with us, they want to do business with us. If I'd started a brand strategy firm in Pakistan or even in Thailand, they're just less inclined to do business with you because they don't know you. They don't trust you as much. They don't think you're as innovative. They're not. They probably don't think your employees are as good. They're not as confident you're going to uphold your side of a legal contract. The legal contracts aren't as easily agreed to because they're not as consistent with the kind of American or Western law all of that we have had massive benefit from. And I don't think American consumers realize how much they benefited from that. And they're going to realize it when everything just gets a little bit more difficult. Your thoughts?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, no, I agree with most of that. I'll just defer to your expertise on the economy side of things, so I can concur with it. I just like putting on my former Republican hat just on the China hawk side of it. I remember we used to have a Republican Party that was strong against communism and that felt like wanted to use more of a Reaganite policy in great power struggles. We've seen these guys basically Fold in the face of China. And I just think broadly, more geopolitically, think about the advantages China has gained over the past five months, in addition to all the stuff you just laid out, the fact that we've totally gutted us and we've eliminated any soft power we have throughout the world and created a huge opportunity for China to fill that void. To your point, on the economic trading partner side of things, I think that if you are one of those Asian countries like Thailand that you just mentioned, don't you feel like you can trust China a little bit more as a trading partner than you could have five months ago? For sure. Then you look at the policy side of things. Talk about leverage and weakness. We completely fold on the Liberation Day tariffs. Meanwhile, we also completely fold when it comes to TikTok. And the U.S. government puts into law a TikTok ban, but Donald Trump and this administration won't enforce it because they're afraid of the backlash from the American population. So China's been so successful in infiltrating American culture through TikTok, and the power of that is so great that the US Government is scared, let's just be honest, scared to enforce its own laws when it comes to banning TikTok China. State TV this morning I saw this. They put this out. The outcome of trade talks with Trump team shows. China's firm countermeasures and resolute stance have been highly effective. China gets nearly all tariffs off for doing very little other than agreeing to talk. That's their spin this morning. So I just think across every metric, we have made China stronger over the past five months in ways that, as you say, are gonna be hard to unravel. And there isn't really any evidence that we are trying to win a great power struggle with them. And I guess I would add just the last thing I'd say on it is if you're China, it's hard for me to get inside the head of Xi Jinping. And I don't know what their plans are with regards to Taiwan or their timing, but I just do not think they could look at America right now and think that we would put up any real resistance to their efforts to overtake Taiwan if they wanted to do it, based on how we've acted with regards to Ukraine, how we've acted with regards to this trade war. So I just think that we've weakened ourselves pretty noticeably across a variety of different metrics vis a vis China.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, I think the short term winner is Europe because China wants to keep these factories Humming so they'll have a lot of excess supply that they'll be willing to sell at a discounted rate. And I think the EU is about to get a massive amount kind of for sale on a ton of products. The medium and the long term. One I actually think I agree with you is China. I know firsthand that their commerce executives and business people are roaming around Europe and Latin America saying, hey, you may not like us, but you can trust us. We do what we say we're going to do. And I was actually at dinner with the CEO of one of the largest companies in China, and he said, yeah, for the first time, we're talking to European companies about providing cloud services. And their general reaction was always, we don't trust China to store our data in the Chinese cloud. And now the question is, okay, we don't trust you, but we don't necessarily trust American companies now either.

[Tim Miller]

Look at the Elon Musk Starlink like, they're like, are we going to trust Elon Musk with the Internet access? Obviously, I think that there are going to be some countries. There are countries going to look at that both ways. Now. Some will want to do that deal because they feel like it might be a way to get good favor at the Trump administration. But I think others are going to feel about that the way they might have felt about China a couple of years ago.

[Scott Galloway]

You also have to do a better job as Democrats, I think, of who has been good at pushing back on autocrats. I learned this. I did an interview with Anna Applebaum, and she said, if you take Alexander Navalny as an example of someone who was able to push back on an emerging kleptocracy or an autocrat, it was because he was able to connect it to people's lives that he had this sort of motto when he was running against Putin that, okay, they're getting rich, and there's still potholes in Moscow. And Elizabeth Warren or Senator Warren kind of summarized it nicely by saying, they're getting rich and you're getting your healthcare taken away. And I don't think we've done a really good job of explaining to the American people that a kleptocracy creates a small number of very rich people, whether it's the people who are tipped off to the launch of the Trump coin the Friday night before inauguration. Small number of wallets, like 30 wallets made $800 million. Things spikes, they dump the bag. And then over the course of the next several weeks, 800,000 smaller investors lost billions and we haven't done a good enough job connecting that. Okay, When Elon Musk, as part of our negotiation with UK around tariffs, gets a Starlink deal, that means every other American tech company, every other small business, and by the way, 98% of the companies that make their living from import and export in the United States are small and medium sized businesses who create two thirds of the jobs in America but don't have lobbyists and they don't have enough money to get on Trump's lunch calendar or be part of Eric's executive like $500,000 a year kind of fraternity, if you will. Those are the people that get hurt the most. And I don't think we as Democrats have done a good enough job connecting the dots there or that say, look, kleptocracy is a small tax and then immediate tax on everyone such that we can funnel a massive amount of money to a small number of people. All right, let's move on here. We'll take one quick break. Stay with us. Support for the show comes from the podcast Democracy Works. The world certainly seems a bit alarming at the the moment, and that's putting it lightly. And sometimes it can feel as if no one is really doing anything to fix it. Now, a lot of podcasts focus on that, the doom and gloom of it all and how democracy can feel like it's failing. But the people over at the Democracy Works podcast take a different approach. They're turning the mics to those who are working to make democracy stronger. From scholars to journalists to activists, they examine a different aspect of democratic life each week, from elections to the rule of law to the free press and everything in between. They interview experts who study democracy as well as people who are out there on the ground doing the hard work to keep our democracy functioning day in and day out. Listen to Democracy Works wherever you listen to podcasts and check out their website, democracyworkspodcast.com to learn more. The Democracy Works podcast is a Production of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State. Welcome back. On the immigration front, a federal judge has blocked what may be one of the Trump administration's most extreme efforts yet, the planned deportation of detainees to Libya. ISIS detained Asian nationals in Texas and allegedly pressured them to voluntarily agree to be transferred to prisons controlled by armed militia in eastern Libya, despite widespread reports of torture and human rights abuses in those facilities. At the same time, Trump is touting a 95% drop in illegal crossings at the U. S. Mexico border compared to last year. Tim, is this a fear Tactic designed to intimidate future migrants into staying away or self deporting. What do you think is going on here?

[Tim Miller]

There definitely is a desire to try to intimidate people into self deporting, and they're actively doing this. They're running ads calling on people to self deport right now throughout the country. So there is that. I think there is a little bit of a sadism to the Stephen Miller wing of the Trump administration. I think some of them like the idea of doing these kind of outlandish types of deportation plans because, A, it's intimidating. B, I think they get some kind of pleasure out of it, maybe erotic pleasure, I don't know. But it's hard to keep track of all this stuff. But the Libya thing is the latest. There's another story, I guess a week or two ago of a guy, Omar Amin, who got deported to Rwanda. He was from Iraq and had been pretty thinly and I think quite clearly falsely accused of being part of ISIS when he was in Iraq. He had come to America, brought his whole family here, went through the refugee vetting process, was living in Sacramento, was working, did not have any crimes in America, but he was accused. There was some cable where he was on a list of people that were ISIS members. Him and his lawyer says that's false. Anyway, he gets jailed during the first Trump administration, has been jailed since then, and we just sent him to Rwanda, where he's not from. And there's another situation I was just reading this morning in New York, where these two guys who are 19 and 20, graduated high school, were from El Salvador. Their parents brought them here when they were kids. They hadn't broken any laws, were good students, spoke English, and they went to their immigration checkup. They ended up getting shackled, sent to Louisiana, and now are about to be sent back to El Salvador, where they don't remember or know anybody in El Salvador. So all of this is part of the broader effort to, yes, intimidate and to send a signal to the world that people aren't welcome here anymore. And that's what they want, right? I mean, look, the only people they're gonna welcome into this country are white Afrikaners from South Africa. I don't think you've got to read between the lines too much on that. And it's outrageous. And I think that part of this stuff, to your point in the last thing about Democrats, I think that the more Democrats can just speak, whether it's about the economy or whether it's about this stuff in normal language, and Focus on things that people understand. People really don't want kids that were brought here where they were four to be sent back to El Salvador. That is not a popular policy. They don't want people to be grabbed off the street by masked agents and sent to a prison camp. Camp in El Salvador or a prison camp in Libya. Like, those are not popular things. And I think that you can talk about those things in regular language that speak to American values while also not going down crazy lefty open borders territory. And I think that it's important to be able to do both.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, I feel I'm of two minds on this. The first is this is still his most popular policy and there's just no getting around it. I feel a lot of this was the Democrats sticking their chin out and just waiting to get tagged hard. And a quarter of a million people crossed the border in December of 23. We were just sort of asking for it. And then they see, okay, them getting Trump, you know, or Biden Harris hats and free phone cards and hotel rooms and Americans saying, okay, there's something wrong here. But I've never understood about this whole argument or I feel Americans fail to see what's going on, is that immigration is obviously the secret sauce of America. But I've always thought I'm kind of where Friedman was on this. And that is the most profitable part of immigration is illegal immigration because they're essentially the most flexible, inexpensive workforce in history. When there's crops to be picked or old people to be taken care of or dishes to be washed and we can't afford or find domestic workers. The reason why it's fairly inexpensive to eat out is because of illegal immigration. And in some cities, somewhere between 15, 25% of fast food workers are undocumented workers. And in addition, they generate a surplus of $100 billion in the Social Security program because most of them are younger and they don't stick around for Social Security. They pay their taxes and then they go back a mass deportation effort, some estimates put at 4 to 7% loss or reduction in GDP. And also there 90% of the undocumented population is working age. About a third of agricultural workers, a quarter of ground maintenance workers, and about a quarter of all food service workers are undocumented. So I mean, you're just. Your prices are going to go up, folks. And there's this trope and there are some very bad people. I do not believe in open borders. I believe you have to have a country. But the question I would have for you, because I don't feel as if I am very knowledgeable or have a deep domain expertise around immigration is that we want to demonize immigrants. But wouldn't the fastest way to solve this problem to be to go to the demand side and that is, say to Chipotle or lawn care companies, we're doing random audits. And based on the percentage of people who are clearly undocumented, we're going to find you $10,000 a day. Because they don't come here to rape. These immigrants don't come here to commit crimes or to start gang warfare. They come here for jobs. And if you went on the demand side and basically hit those nice American people with real fines such that they started implementing and they could do this with biometrics or just simple documentation verification. If there's no jobs, if it's like, okay, I'm sorry, I can't hire you, they melt back to where they came from. But we don't want to do that, do we?

[Tim Miller]

No. Yeah. Two thoughts on this. One is, and I think that it reveals a lot about why they're targeting, who they're targeting and what the motivations are. This administration doesn't want to go after business owners directly. Right. And if they get hurt by the tariffs, because Trump's obsessed with tariffs, that's one thing. But they're not trying to make enemies of people that they think voted for them or possibly voted for them, small business owners. Plus, on top of that, Donald Trump is an employer of illegal immigrants who worked at his hotels and golf courses, which he knows. So they don't have any interest in doing that. You're exactly right. They could do. There's e verification. This has been something that border hawks, immigration hawks have been proposing ever since I've been in politics. Many of the candidates I worked for supported that. It was something that's on your policy agenda in the campaign. But then you don't actually put into place in government E verify because you don't want to actually punish the small business owners that are likely Republican voters. So what they're doing now is they feel like low risk. Right. Like who is. Sure, there are probably some working class Hispanic voters that moved over to Trump that are starting to have maybe a change of heart because they had a cousin or a friend or something who is not a criminal who's been deported or they know somebody who has. So there's gonna be a little bit of a risk there. But broadly speaking, if you take an 18 and 19 year old El Salvador kid that was brought here, that can't vote, brought here illegally by their parents and you send them back to El Salvador, you're not paying a political price for that in any meaningful way. And it is immoral. It's an affront to what the country is supposed to be about. And it's affront to the very American ethos of people wanting to come here and have an opportunity. But you're not paying a political price there. So I just think that they're doing it. There's obviously some racial elements to it as referenced earlier with the white Afrikaners, but it's also just they feel like it's much more politically palatable to go after 18 and 19 year old kids that would have been dreamers or whatever than it is to go after American business owners. And just one really quick thing on the economy, I agree this all takes time, this is going to happen now. But just adding onto what we talked about earlier with tariffs, you add onto that we're deporting a bunch of people that are working, doing cheap work. We're not bringing in nearly as many people as we were. So the shutting down of the border is good in that it's shutting down some of the fentanyl traffic and some of the gang labor, but it's also shutting down people that were coming here to work, work. And then on top of that we're firing a lot of people in the federal workforce or putting them on the sidelines. They're probably gonna end up getting paid anyway. So we're gonna be paying them to do nothing while that goes through the courts. And it's harder for recent college grads to get jobs in a lot of these areas because people don't know what's gonna be happening with the government. I just think that there are a lot of economic factors there that are pointing to a pretty bad situation once it all starts to hum through the economy.

[Scott Galloway]

Here's Let me put forward a thesis and I wanna get your response to it. So I have a 17 year old son and there's been reports in verification of actual people who aren't criminals, people who were brought here, grew up here being deported, some ending up in these hellscapes prisons and also reports of US citizens. And my view is unfortunately that a lot of Democrats who are very wealthy clutch their pearls and say at dinner parties how outraged they are, but they don't really do a fucking thing about it because there's this emerging, what I'll call transnational oligarchy togarks. And that's if you're in the 1% A. You have a disproportionate amount of power and without you, it's very hard to get anything done without your support. And so it's easy to complain about it at dinner parties, but the reality is in America that your rights have become a function of your wealth. My kid is not going to be sequestered by ICE and sent to El Salvador door. There's just zero chance that could happen. I will not be silenced because I have the money to lawyer up anyone in my life that becomes pregnant. I don't care if I'm in deepest, reddest Mississippi, I can get access to family planning because I have money. And if shit really gets real and on the unlikely chance we start rounding up Jews and I get on the wrong list, well, before that, I have the money to peace out to Milan or Dubai. And what that creates is this lack of incentive or this divesting of the most powerful interests in America. And that is. Whereas before I think the really wealthy thought, I'm going to stay here, if this could happen to them, it could happen to us. But now there's a feeling amongst me, well, I always turn this back to me, but among the really wealthy, that we're insulated from some of this, that it really doesn't impact us. So we have our own schools, we have our own security, we have our own healthcare, we have our own legal rights, we're protected by the law, but we're not bound by it. And it creates this really unhealthy ecosystem where the most powerful in our nation, even who claim to have progressive values, really don't feel that same sense of vested interests in the maintenance and fidelity to American values. Because at the end of the day, we're kind of global citizens and our governance is the dollar. We're basically how much money we have and we can find those rights somewhere else even if they're violated here. Your thoughts?

[Tim Miller]

I think that there's some of that. I mean, look, you're always going to paint with a broad brush in these sort of situations. There are certainly rich liberals that are out there doing what they can and others that feel like how you did. And I hear from bulwark listeners, like upper middle class people that'll come up to me and say that they're thinking of leaving. I had a woman just over the weekend that was like, I'm thinking about moving to Australia, my husband is a citizen or something. And I was like, don't leave. I'm not going anywhere. You're fine here. You Actually, because of what you just laid out, Scott, if you're a citizen of this country that has enough money for a lawyer, you're in pretty good shape right now. We'll see how things look when Donald Trump is deteriorating at age 81 in 2027. Maybe my assessment will change on that. But as of right now, you're fine and you should be staying here and should be fine. So I do, I think there's a little bit of that. I also think the Democratic Party and this is going to go against what my policy preferences is probably. But I think that from a political standpoint, this is important. The Democratic Party has not done a particularly great job of recruiting people that are from the working class, that are from the non globalist parts of America to be spokespersons for the party. A lot of times those people are probably going to be more. They're probably going to have different views from me on social and economic issues. I'm kind of a fiscally conservative, socially liberal, whatever cliche. The Democrats should probably be recruiting people that are more fiscally left than me and have some maybe contrarian social views, because that is the most popular combination of political views for working class people. And I think the Democrats have done a lot of recruiting of people that are maybe from somewhere in America and then were the valedictorian and then went to a fancy school and then worked at McKinsey and then went back to where they came from. And nothing against any of those people, but they're gonna have a set of views that are closer to what you just lined out that have more of a globalist kind of mindset. And I do think it would help the Democrats to have people that authentically sound like they are from the communities that are gonna be hurt by this.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, they claim to represent. Yeah, it's as if they're studying to the kind of the purity test and we're going off script here. But I can't help shocked me a couple days ago there was a new poll showing that if the election were held again today that Harris would still lose or that Trump would win. And my sense is, I'm not shocked by that. I was shocked by that, especially when you see the swing among young people. But I mean, it is what it is. And as unpopular as Trump is, the Democratic Party is less popular. And I think as we see it again crying into TikTok. The reality is we're the. The analogy I used to use was that the Panzer tanks come rolling into Poland and we're fighting Democrats. We're as Democrats, we're fighting them on horseback. And then someone reminded me, actually that was a successful military operation. I should stop disparaging the heroes of the Polish army in World War II. So. But my point is the only thing that feels more corrupt than the Trump administration are kind of coarse and cruel right now is just how weak the Democratic Party is.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, well, it's not more corrupt, but it's sadder and it has more impact.

[Scott Galloway]

No, no, no. More weak.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, more weak for sure.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, isn't America basically saying they'd rather have a corrupt autocrat than a weak Democratic Party?

[Tim Miller]

A lot of Americans are. Here's the problem. And this goes to your screaming the TikTok thing, which I do a lot. So I'll defend it. I'll defend the honor of it. But I do think it has its limitations, which is this. And this is why I bet you get pushback sometimes from people when you say this, because there is a not nothing. There's 40% of the country, maybe 33% of the country who are super engaged in, are decently well off middle class to upper middle class, went to college, read the news, listen to podcasts or watch cable or read the newspaper or read magazine, whatever, engaged, know who their representative is and are mad about what's happening, are legitimately mad about it and are trying to figure out what to do about it. And the good news for Democrats is those people show up in these special elections and local elections. That's why Democrats are showing to do better in those than in the national election elections. The problem is there's just another huge part of the country that are less informed. And I don't really even say that as a pejorative. It's just like they don't engage in political news. Maybe for some of them it's because they're working too damn hard and don't have time. Maybe for others it's because they'd rather play video games for eight hours a day. But either way that is happening and the Democrats have been to that demographic. The Democrats feel very weak and they feel very disconnected and out of touch and not fighting for them. And it is just an absolute necessity that Democrats figure out how to find a voice that can connect with people that don't read the New York Times. And part of that, I think, is, as I just mentioned in the last answer, is recruiting people not who play video games eight hours a day, but who look and sound and feel more like folks that are not part of that class of the 1/3 of the country that's super engaged.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, let me ask you that right now. If you had to say, who are the leaders of the Democratic Party? You. He would point to Minority Leader Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Schumer. And I'm a fan of Leader Jeffries. I don't think he's the leader we need right now. And I think Senator Schumer is a fucking disaster. Who do you think, in your view? Who are some of those emerging boys? Everyone keeps saying, we have such a strong bench. And then they say they point to Wes Moore and the list runs shallow. And then everyone was getting excited about John Fetterman, and there's all these stories coming out saying that he's struggling. Who do you see as kind of the up and coming draft choices in the Democratic Party?

[Tim Miller]

I am on the weak bench side of this. Me and Carville argue about this. Carville feels very like the bench is really good. I don't really think so, but I do like Wes Moore. I think that you've seen the AOC and Bernie are actually channeling something. I don't. Obviously, Bernie's really old aoc.

[Scott Galloway]

Let me just push a pause there. My thesis is they're great, they're inspiring. There's no fucking way America's gonna elect either of them.

[Tim Miller]

Correct. Yeah, it was funny. I was at a panel, and this is part of getting. Again, outside of these pockets of Republicans.

[Scott Galloway]

Are praying that Bernie or AOC are the nominee.

[Tim Miller]

I was on a panel here in Louisiana, and I got the same question. I was giving the same answer I'm giving right now. I mentioned AOC and a guy who I know, who's an older guy, who's a Democrat, Louisiana Democrat, came up to me, and he's just like, my party is more insane than I even thought it was. If they think that AOC can win this country, it's just like people that are outside of certain worlds just don't see things differently. That said, they've showed leadership. And I just wanted to mention it.

[Scott Galloway]

They're inspiring.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, but look, here's what I think, man. Look, if this is May, it's May 12, 2025. If you took us to May 12, 2013, and said Donald Trump is gonna be the Republican Party leader, everybody'd say, you're insane. If you took us to May 12, 2005, and said that Barack Hussein Obama is gonna be the Democratic Party leader, everybody say, you'd be insane. And I think a lot of times people have limits on their imaginations.

[Scott Galloway]

Same, of course, nobody knew who Clinton was.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And I think that you look at the two names that two examples I just come up with that are just totally different. Neither of these guys are gonna be the leader of the Democratic Party. But Dan Osborne ran for Senate in Nebraska, way over. Performed as kind of a working class, socially conservative, fiscally liberal guy. And Democrats should recruit guys like that to run the midterms. Mark Cuban is like the inverse of him. There's like a business guy. And you could tell me that either of those types of people could be the Democratic nominee in three years and I would believe you. And so I don't know, I like what's more fun. I like Josh Shapiro fine. I mean, there are other Pete I hate. I think that I don't compete as a 7 language speaking grad student grad who worked at McKinsey really reached the working class people I've been talking about. I don't know. But he did pretty damn well on that bro podcast that Andrew Schultz podcast the other day. So maybe he can do better than I think so. There are people out there, but it's going to take real work. Scott Galloway, if he didn't live in London, might be an example.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah, that shows just how desperate we are. Ask you this just so we can fill the comments section up with people calling me names. I think America is ready for a gay president. I don't know if the Democratic Party is. I think the way the Democratic primaries are held, that there's certain elements of the Democratic Party that would have an issue with Secretary Buttigieg, as evidenced by his poor performance.

[Tim Miller]

You're talking about black voters.

[Scott Galloway]

Thank you.

[Tim Miller]

This is just a truth. So I'm just gonna say this. I have plenty of friends at the peak campaign and Pete had some of his own issues with black voters in South Bend that might be totally unrelated to gay issues, but they did focus group with black voters. And in all those focus groups, there were some black voters that weren't cool with it. And that's just a fact. It's just reality. There are more white people that hate gays and black. You know what I mean? So I'm not trying to make it a racial thing. That's just kind of a fact. And that would be a challenge for him. Is that gonna be still the true in three years? I don't know. Is it something about Pete himself? Again, Carville's line is always like, the person that wins the Democratic primary is the one that can win the black church. And I could maybe imagine a gay candidate that would be able to do better in a black church than Pete. It's just like, is that his natur space? Probably not, but maybe so. By the way, I don't know. Maybe he could really surprise and prove himself. I didn't think he'd do that well. On that podcast, Pete has surprised at every turn. So I don't know. I think that broadly speaking, even outside of black voters, Democrats are like, what's the fucking old saying? Twice, bit, thrice, bit, once, whatever, just about. I think that they'll probably want to go for a straight white guy or a straight black guy just because, like, after Hillary and Kamala experience, I think that a lot of Democrats are just gonna be freaked out about nominating somebody. And I don't know if that's true or right. I think there are other issues there, but I do think that there will be some of that.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. I think the Democratic Party at this point is like, okay, we absolutely need a female president and we will have a female president. She'll be a Republican who has a reputation for likely drone striking your entire family. If you run a stop sign. That's who's gonna be the first female president, Kristi Noem.

[Tim Miller]

She'll have new face, you know, and she'll have murdered a dog and have a pinup photo shoot in front of, you know, in front of El Salvador torture prison.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, I'm, I hope and trust that she'll be out of government soon, but she's going to slipstream right into some sort of Cinemax prison film. I mean, that picture of her where it looked like a sephora, it exploded on her face and she was in front of a bunch of half naked dudes. It literally felt like those prison films I used to watch in the 90s after my parents had gone to sleep on Cinemax. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Welcome back. History was made last week as Cardinal Robert Previs became Pope Leo xiv, the first American to lead the Catholic Church. Born in Chicago and shaped by decades of missionary work in Peru, Leo stepped onto the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica Sunday to deliver his first blessing. He called for peace in Ukraine and Gaza, urged leaders to reject war, and emphasized caring for young people and the vulnerable. His message and background signal a potentially progressive path forward. Tim, what does the new Pope's background and his first public message tell you about the direction that he may take the church?

[Tim Miller]

I've got to tell you, my mother couldn't be more thrilled. I'm a little bit of a lapsed Catholic myself. As we were just talking about the gay stuff. But there were some jokes on the Internet that he was the Bulwark Pope and it was like right in my mom's lane because he was, you know, he voted in Republican primaries, I guess in 2012, up until 2016. And then he. And then he had multiple tweets criticizing Trump in advance. It's pretty wild that we can go through the Pope's tweet history now. We are in a different world. He also is a graduate of Villanova, where my little brother went. So touching. A lot of bases for my daily churchgoing mother. Very thrilled.

[Scott Galloway]

That's huge.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, very thrilled.

[Scott Galloway]

Good for the Miller family. Big weekend for the Miller family.

[Tim Miller]

The broader thing, I don't know. I think that the College of Cardinals probably had a lot of things in their minds, not just the fact that this person was American or our domestic political concerns. And frankly, he hasn't even in America that much. He was in Peru and then Italy for most of his service to the church. And so I don't know, I will say this, whether they intended this or not. I do think it is nice to have an American on the world stage that is offering a counter view about what it means to be a person and a human than our President. And I don't know that he's gonna be like the woke Pope of every lefty's dreams on a variety of issues. Like the Cathol Church still has the Catholic Church's views on gender and sexuality and abortion and women priests and all that. I think that he is someone that is just. It's very clear that he actually cares about his fellow humans. He cares about humanity. And that is in direct contrast to the President who only cares about himself. And so I don't, you know, we'll see what exactly it means for the Catholic Church. I think probably a continuation of Francis more than any big massive changes based on my. The Catholics in good standing in my life. TBD a little bit on all that. But just from a. As a former PS2 PR marketing of PR people, it's nice PR for America at a time where our PR is pretty shitty.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah. My thesis is that this is the third world leader that got elected by Trump. Anthony Albanese, Mark Carney were both supposed to lose, especially Carney overcame a 25 point deficit. And I think there was such a gag reflex global, globally around Donald Trump that he is electing world leaders, just not the world leaders that he's hoping would be elected. And I think this is another example when I think the papacy is really strategic and says, where can we have the most impact? And part of that is which region is struggling and would benefit most and get the most attention around these very humanistic values and code of decency. And when the Eastern Bloc was struggling, they picked someone from Poland. And I don't think it's any accident that they picked an American pope, that they said, if we are really troubled by what this lack of humanity. The call sign, or I think the statement that literally identifies America right now is the following. It was made by Bill Gates, and I'm paraphrasing, but it's thematically the same. The world's richest man is killing the world's poorest people. And that, to me, when Bill Gates said that, it was one of those moments where I thought, it just hit me so hard in the gut. I thought, wow, that's what we've become. Like, literally, that's us now. And so I think they see an opportunity not only for attention, but a chance to restore and have influence on Americans who obviously disproportionately carry weight and gravity and influence around the world. For I think more Americans and more elected officials will pay closer attention to what this Pope says, and that a restoration or Rejuvenation, an EpiPen, Narcan to the American value system is really needed right now. And this guy, in addition to understanding technology and referencing AI, he is unafraid. He's called Putin's actions wicked, which is.

[Tim Miller]

An upgrade from Francis worth mentioning.

[Scott Galloway]

There you go. But I think, again, Trump has gotten another world leader elected, and I think they see a big opportunity here, here to have an American Pope who will again get probably greater sort of bandwidth or airtime because of his origins, and that America is really in need of sort of a values upgrade, if you will. Thoughts?

[Tim Miller]

It's hard to argue. Again, I don't claim to. You know, I could give you a lot better analysis of the Electoral College than the College of Cardinals. And so it's hard for me to get inside there. I, like.

[Scott Galloway]

They do get branding, though, don't they? White smoke.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Maybe it's more interpersonal. You know what I mean? I don't really know, but I think that's the impact of what you're saying. Whether or not the intention was there is definitely correct. I agree with the analysis, and I'm sure that for certain members of the college, it was part of it. And Francis, to my understanding, did put in a lot more people in his mold into that college. And so I wouldn't be Surprised if at least among some of them, they thought that this was a nice contrast to the American President, particularly at a time of where America is struggling. And I'm glad you mentioned that Bill Gates quote, because that also hit me like a ton of bricks. It's terrible. The USAID thing is so unimaginably terrible. And it's like you run out of reasons to talk about it on shows like this. Right, because there's no new news about it. But it is truly abhorrent that we took something that was a tenth of a penny in our federal budget that was giving HIV medicines to people in Africa and feeding the poor, and we've cut it because El Elon Musk broke his brain by reading too many tweets. It's a truly deplorable state of affairs.

[Scott Galloway]

Well, we've spent 80 years developing an expensive and worthwhile brand association that in the short term, we make a lot of mistakes, but it's mostly out of stupidity or naivete.

[Tim Miller]

This brand association is real, though. I worked for McCain and I talked to Mark Salters, ghostwriter and longtime speechwriter, and traveled the whole world with him. And Salters said, like the American brand, you would go with McCain to these random corners where people were fighting against autocrats or where there had been a big natural disaster. And he would travel there and he's like, people in random villages in small towns and remote corners of the world would be like, America, John McCain, John McCain. That brand was that strong. And I do think that we've essentially just ruined it forever, certainly tarnished it in a matter of five months.

[Scott Galloway]

We've set it back decades. But that association, one of the core associations on a very basic level is I've always felt like we're the good guys, that, yeah, do we make dumb mistakes? Are we gluttonous? Are we obnoxious? Yeah. But we're the good guys. Our heart's in the right place. And I think in just probably in three and a half months, we're no longer the good guys. And there's this notion that in regions where there's no investment, you get just such an enormous return on investment. It's basic economic things theory. We were getting such enormous ROI on these small investments in terms of preventing kids from getting infected, having AIDS transmitted from their mothers to them, with just some very inexpensive wiping out malaria toilets, such that thousands, even millions of young boys and girls didn't die of dysentery. And we've taken what is probably the greatest ROI investment because there's so little investment in these regions. No other nation would make those investments. And we decided those are the investments that we're going to pull back. It really is depraved. But circling back, I do think that the papacy recognized this and decided that they could have the most impact with a pope that more Americans would listen to. So, Tim, I want to go off script for a minute. I'm fascinated by Tim Miller. I have found myself just so drawn to your content and how you bring this strength and fearlessness and real emotion and real empathy. What's your origin story? I don't know that much about you. Like where. How did you get. How did Tim Miller get to here right now?

[Tim Miller]

I appreciate that. I find it. I don't know about you, but this is not false modesty, because I can be a narcissist like any other content creator. But I do find it weird to process people consuming my stuff all the time, because when I try to just emote and be authentic and just say what I really think and not actually think about the audience as much as possible. And so I do. Sometimes it makes me uncomfortable when I start hearing about thinking about Scott Galloway consuming my rants. So I was a Republican operative. I was just a PR flack, essentially for Republicans, usually moderate Republicans. But I was also a hired gun. So I have some shameful Republicans on my resume as well. And I came out of the closet during that process. And so I was probably the most. There have been a lot of prominent Republicans who were either outed or became gay after when they retired, like Ken Melman or Larry Raig or whatever. But as an active person in the party right around all the time, of the gay marriage stuff, I was the most visible. And so I do think that gave me just kind of a relationship with all of it that was maybe a little bit different than other hired guns. I had dealt with being separate from the party on something that was very core to me throughout this process. And so when Trump came along, I don't know, part of that, I think it just made it easier for me just to say, no, fuck this. And as part of my hired guide gun process, a bunch of rich guys hired me in 2016 to be the point, like the face of a basically Republicans against Trump effort, like anybody, whoever it is. So I just went on cable and argued with Trumpers and pitched negative stories about Trump to people. And then when Trump won, I went through a massive midlife crisis about what the hell to do with my life.

[Scott Galloway]

Pretty early midlife.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, early midlife crisis. I Had a very early midlife crisis and an extended, extended one. And I started doing some of these podcast stuff on the side, literally. And I was like, I was lost. I was like, should I do corporate pr? We adopted a kid at that time. I was like, should I just be a 9 to 5 guy and do PR for Clorox bleach or something and have a regular job and coach the kids sports teams and forget all this? Should I, whatever do figure out, try to fight within the party against Trump? And I was totally lost. And my colleague Sarah Longwell, who's an old friend of mine, started the bulwark and I started kind of doing bulwark stuff for fun. And I don't know, man, I think that people were. There's something about the fact that I think that I was lost and did not have a little birdie in the back of my head saying, hey, think about your career and what other job you might be. White House press secretary in the future, you might want. Who knows what will happen after Trump ends. I just didn't have that. I was a little bit unfettered, I think. And so we created at the Bulwark with Sarah and JVL and others, a community of people who really liked that. And I think that was important to them, like our OGs, because they were also kind of lost. And so I don't know, man. That's how I ended up doing this. And I think there is something freeing about being a former Republican versus being somebody who comes up as a Democrat in their background, because I just don't a. I have some of the Republican traits of aggressiveness. I would not have been beaten down by the Democratic traits of community building. So I think that has helped. And also, I just don't. I'm not plotting who might hire me for the 2028 primary in the way that maybe some Democratic commentators are. So I don't know. Is that good? Was that a good backstory for me?

[Scott Galloway]

Curious if you. I have tropes. I always say that from 0 to 30, I didn't have enough stress. I almost failed out of UCLA a couple times. Didn't bother me. Was on the verge of being kicked out of ucla, which would have been really bad for me. I didn't really care. Almost lost a couple businesses, was very reckless with my relationships, just didn't have as much anxiety, quite frankly, as I should. I think from 30 to 40, I had the perfect amount of anxiety. Worried enough to be successful, but not worried enough where I couldn't sleep. And now I Have too much anxiety. Anxiety. I worry about everything. And you have a kid. Like, if I'm not anxious about one of my kids during the day, something's wrong that makes me anxious. I feel like I'm missing something. And I've had trouble disassociating from what is going on with America and our government right now. For the first time, politics is really sort of rattling me and taking a toll on me emotionally. Do you struggle with the same thing? Sometimes when I watch your content, I get the sense I can hear in your voice like, this shit really upsets you. Like it really rattles you.

[Tim Miller]

You.

[Scott Galloway]

One is, am I sensing that correctly? And two, how do you attempt to disassociate or keep things in perspective and get about your day and focus on your family and progress at the Bulwark?

[Tim Miller]

I'm pretty good at compartmentalizing, which got me into trouble in that past life that I talked about earlier. I probably shouldn't have compartmentalized the fact that I was gay with the fact that I was a spokesman for Republicans. But I was able to do it then. It's serving me a little bit now because I get rattled emotional and very mad. And probably three times during the day, I get very mad. And when I get actually mad, I try to channel that into the content. Because I said this after the election, I was like, I'm not going to do the fake mad thing. I'm not. I'm not going to pretend to care about things I don't care about. And sometimes there's Trump stuff that makes other people really mad that I just either don't talk about or we'll talk about a little bit. Just because I'm like, I just. I can't. I don't have any room in my body for the anger over this thing because in part because I'm so mad about the immigration stuff and in particular the immigration stuff, but also other things they're doing. The trans military band is one that got me recently. I try to just be have my honest emotions with people outside of that. A. I'm drinking too much, but I'm trying to go. I live in New Orleans.

[Scott Galloway]

I knew we were brothers from another mother.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I tried to go to. And I live in New Orleans, so I'm going to show. I'm going to see music and when I'm there, I'm drinking too much bourbon, but it is allowing me and I'm enjoying my time there and I'm being with around. I have a lot of buddies here who don't stress me out about politics, and I appreciate all of them, and that is good. I have a couple hours a day where I take on the parenting and I just try to parent, and I'm like, I'm here. We're gonna play, we're gonna go to the basketball court, we're gonna to whatever, do your homework. We're going to be silly. And I try to do that and not think about it every once in a while. Bad thoughts come through when I'm parenting or drinking, but usually not. I'm pretty good at compartmentalizing it. A therapist might tell me that this strategy is eventually going to fail and those three parts of my brain are going to collide in a way that will create crippling anxiety. But that hasn't happened so far.

[Scott Galloway]

Most importantly, what did you do for Mother's Day yesterday?

[Tim Miller]

Nothing. One of the great joys of being gay is that we don't have to do Mother's Day. I mean, I sent my mother a gift and we did a FaceTime with her. She lives in Colorado, and I have a great mother. Yeah, it's nice. I feel like we get a little bit freed from the conventions. So some people trying to be nice and woke will wish us a happy Mother's Day. And I'm like, no, it's cool. No worries. And by the way, I don't even have to do a happy Father's Day. It's fine. We have a different family. So we went and had crawfish at Clessy's, which, if you find yourself in New Orleans during crawfish season, I gotta shout out clessy's. It's the best spot. I watched the Nuggets game. It was a loss, unfortunately. And, you know, I yelled at the YouTube camera, took the kid to the park. It was great. It was a wonderful day. What about you?

[Scott Galloway]

I had a wonderful Mother's Day. I did nothing. I'm here in New York on my own, and I walked around soho. I went to Jack's wife Frida. I went to San Vicente Bungalow for brunch. It was, you know, just.

[Tim Miller]

You weren't guilt trapped by the mothers in your life over that.

[Scott Galloway]

My mom is gone. The mother of my children is. I don't want to say it's Mother's Day every day, but we're pretty much in awe of her. And we plan a lot of stuff and do a lot of stuff, but we had some stuff planned for her to make sure that she felt loved. And quite frankly, she said that she just wanted to Be alone. That that was her Mother's Day gift. She just wanted all. She has three kids. But look, one of the really wonderful things about getting older as a man is you develop these really nice kind of paternal instincts or fraternal instincts where you're happy for people, you're happy for younger men. I have gotten real reward. I don't know you that well, but I've gotten real reward from watching you in this moment. I think you are so authentic and so courageous and have such great command of the medium. I get reward from watching your success. I'm really happy for you. I think you're doing a great job and your voice is really important. And I just. I hope that you take time with your husband and your kid to pause and recognize how successful you are and what a difference you're making. And it's just fun to just observe it and watch it. Really appreciate all that you do and very much appreciate you coming on the show today.

[Tim Miller]

Thank you, Scott. I genuinely appreciate that. It means a lot. I'm getting tingly. I also. It sucks. I don't know about you. I do get uncomfortable with the compliments, especially when so much shit is happening and I'm like, I don't know. I'm doing the best I can. But I do appreciate it very much. It means a lot.

[Scott Galloway]

All right, that's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates. Our producers are David Toledo and Chinen. Our technical director is Drew Burrows. You can now find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday and Friday. That's right, its own feed. That means exclusive interviews with sharp political minds, including N who joined us today that you won't hear anywhere else. This week, we have another anti Trump Republic. Jess is talking with former congressman Charlie Dent. Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts so you don't miss an episode. And, Tim, where can they find more?

[Tim Miller]

Tim, I'm everywhere. The Bulwark, YouTube.

[Scott Galloway]

You're everywhere. To resist is futile.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, the Bulwark, YouTube, Nicole Wallace's show, sometimes at MSNBC and some others, and, you know, Twitter, TimODC. I'm still suffering through X. I think you left Instagram. Everywhere. I'm every. Everywhere, baby.

[Scott Galloway]

Get off of X. Get off. Trust me on this. The most accretive thing you can do for your mental health is to get off of X.

[Tim Miller]

That's good advice.

[Scott Galloway]

All right, thanks again, Tim.

[Tim Miller]

Thanks, man.