← Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Trump & Pentagon Now Completely Delusional on War Strategy
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Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-844botox to learn more. You can tell a lot about a
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Podcast Host / Narrator
person by their accent.
- [01:06]
Caller / Guest Named Sam
I really do say I pocked my
- [01:08]
Scott Galloway
cat and havid Yacht.
- [01:10]
Caller / Guest Named Sam
Everyone around here says like a coffee and dwark.
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Jessica Tarlov
We're so attached to the way that we sound because it tells a part of the story of who we are.
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Botox Commercial Narrator
Your accent decoded.
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Podcast Host / Narrator
That's this week on Explain It To Me. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
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Botox Commercial Narrator
Megan Rapinoe here this week on A Touch more. We've got two insiders to help us unpack the WNBA's new CBA three time champion and WNBPA vice president Alicia Clark, aka AC and ESPN basketball analyst Andrea Carter. We're also going to take a look at our NCAA brackets and check out what's next in March Madness. Check out the latest episode of A Touch More wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
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Jessica Tarlov
Foreign.
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Scott Galloway
Moderates I'm Scott Galloway.
- [02:05]
Jessica Tarlov
And I'm Jessica Tarlov.
- [02:07]
Scott Galloway
If you're not already, please make sure to get subscribed to our YouTube channel so you stay up to date on the latest politics and news. All right, let's get into it. We're a month into the war with Iran and the messaging couldn't be more split or I don't know if that's the right word. Confused, sclerotic head up your ass makes no Fucking sense.
- [02:24]
Jessica Tarlov
Really bad.
- [02:25]
Scott Galloway
There you go. Really bad. That's. That's probably better. President Trump is touting real progress toward a deal, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says, we're closer than ever to winning. What is winning, white man? Even as he acknowledges Iran can still strike back. So which is it? Are we nearing a deal or bracing for more retaliation? At the same time, the conflict is expanding. The US is flying B52 missions over Iran, targeting supply chains, while Iran maintains its grip on the Straits of Hormuz, driving tanker attacks and rising tensions across the region. And back at home, it's starting to bite. Gas prices are up, supply chains are tightening, and the risk of a prolonged conflict is turning into a real political task. So what's the end game here? Here's Secretary Hecseth earlier talking about the timeline. Let's take a listen.
- [03:18]
Podcast Host / Narrator
Military objectives that we're moving toward and things that we look at and has these articulated. You know, he said four to six weeks, six to eight weeks, three. It could be any particular number, but we would never reveal precisely what it is, because our goal is to finish those objectives, and we're well on our way. And the chairman and I look at this every single day. It will be the president's determination and the president's determination alone when those objectives are complete and when it serves the interest of the American people to cut that deal, to make sure that Iran doesn't have a nuclear capability and. And ultimately that our objectives are. Our interests are advanced.
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Jessica Tarlov
It was such a frustrating press conference because he brought up an objective that is now off the list. Secretary Rubio laid out the four objectives yesterday that are left. And by the way, there's no language anymore about obliterating anything. We're just trying to diminish things now, which, of course, on the sliding scale, could be anything from like, we nicked it to we blew it up a little, to they're already firing more missiles than they were last week, which is a huge deal and change in the state of play. But when he talks about nuclear material, that's gone. Regime change that lets the Iranian people live freely, that's gone off the list. And I don't know if you saw this. The Wall Street Journal reported last night, and then Trump confirmed it this morning on True Social, that he's open to an arrangement where he, the U.S. leaves before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. So that essentially just leaves Iran in charge of the straight, and they can negotiate any deal that they want. We know already they're making more money than they were before. They're cutting their own deals. Like all the tankers that are going through aren't our tankers. Right. They're Pakistani tankers, Indian tankers, Chinese tankers. The supplying the world with oil again just at a higher price and filling up their coffers, plus the 14 billion that we gave them back when we eased sanctions on them in a middle of a war that we said was existential for us is so unbelievably frustrating. And like it continues the, you know, the drumming from the right of you're not a patriot if you're just calling out, using their language back at them. It's like my favorite thing to do on the five where I say you don't even have to trust me. Right. I'm just going to give you a series of quotes of high ranking Republican officials and the things that they're saying and you can see how they don't match what they said 24 hours ago. It's a completely schizophrenic administration when it comes to this war and I'm worried that it's just gonna like the final nail in the coffin of the global world order. So Poland doesn't want to help us. Spain and Italy in the last 24 hours have come out and said like you can't land here en route to that. The UK doesn't want to information share with us in the way that we typically could rely on. And we're saying we're going to peace out before the Strait is reopened. What will be the main achievement of any of this?
- [06:24]
Scott Galloway
Yeah, it's. Even if the Islamic Republic was open to negotiations, what do they even start negotiations around? It's not entirely clear what the administration is asking for, what their objectives are. And the most disturbing part of that word salad was it could be any number in terms of duration. Well, does that mean it could be eight years and $3 trillion? It just feels as if we have absolutely no credibility in the international community. Russia has a tighter relationship with Iran than we have with our European allies right now. And what's interesting is that China, who I initially thought was going to be a big loser here because of their dependence upon oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz might end up being the big winner because the Western countries who fucked up and maintained a Western alliance and tried to be dignified with the president, South Korea, the Philippines, Japan, they are just as energy dependent or dependent upon imports as China. But China's oil is getting through. So relatively speaking, China is about to expand its economic dominance in Southeast Asia or in Asia. Meanwhile, all of our allies are like, oh, my God, it all comes back to that great Animal House quote, you fucked up. You trusted us. Whether it's Canada letting their export volume go to 75% of their exports into the US thinking that they had a great relationship with us, or whether it's Asian nations and our allies thinking, well, the US Appears to know what it's doing. Even when we disagree with them, we're going to keep quiet. We're going to continue to share intelligence and. And now, arguably the strongest ally in history with us, at least for the last, you know, call it, since 1945, has been with the UK and maybe with the exception of Canada. And now the UK is saying, we're not going to provide you with information. So words matter, communication matters. And even if someone in the IRGC said it's time to negotiate or back channel, who do they call? What is the message? What is the administration looking for? And also every day this goes on with this flailing. It's like trying to deal with a drunk octopus. It makes them look like the adults. It makes us look like the bad guys that the world community can't trust.
- [08:51]
Jessica Tarlov
Well, on top of it, part of the calculus of the Trump administration has always been that we're going to recenter our ally nexus to the Middle east, right, and create these great partnerships with the Gulf states. And the Gulf states are saying you have to keep going. Like, you can't poke the bear and then leave us here essentially at this point. And so you have this push and pull from the signals that he's getting from Americans at home. I mean, his approval rating was generous yesterday when I said it was at 40%. There are now a number of polls that have him in the mid-30s, even low-30s. Right. You have gas hitting over $4 a gallon today. What's diesel up to like 550, so that decimates, you know, trucking industries, housing construction, et cetera. And we're saying, like, you got to focus on what's going on at home. Our European allies are saying, this is so harebrained. And you haven't been able to give us a decent briefing to explain what a decent set of goals are or what an exit strategy is. And so no one's happy on that side. And then the Gulf states aren't even happy with what's going on. Would prefer world without Ayatollah Junior in it. And the IRGC, as it's currently constituted 100%. But we've even stopped taking out key members of the leadership, which I feel like is an admission that this is kind of it, right? That, you know, there is no Delcey Rodriguez waiting in the wings for when, you know, she can come into it will definitely be a he in Iran, but, you know what I mean? Like, there's no moderate leader that you feel like you can make a deal with. And some of the more moderate forces that we've seen are now just out there trolling Trump online mercilessly. Like everybody knows what his game is, right? That he's gonna tweet a couple hours before the market opens, try to smooth things over. And I feel like, you know, we tried to put out our best AI slop from the White House account with the, you know, Super Mario themed battle plans, but we're getting trolled worse than anything that we're producing at this point, which I'm sure is even more humiliating to him than whatever's actually happening on the battlefield.
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Scott Galloway
So just some data here. The war has now cost more than $25 billion. And I think it's important that we start creating context around the cost. So that's enough to pay for Medicaid coverage for over 3 million people for a year, free tuition for a two year associate degree for nearly 3 million people, and give nearly 30 million children free school lunch for a year. I think Bernie Sanders proposal for free college was 50 billion a year. And there are some people saying that this is a quagmire that ultimately is going to cost a trillion dollars. And I think one of the most so the first ballot hall of fame geopolitical catastrophes of the last of this, I would argue, of this century was George or W Deciding to go into Iraq. Trillions of dollars. 4,500 U.S. servicemen, I believe, lost hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq. But philosophically, I think the real damage that was done was that the administration Bush said to America, we can have wars and cut your taxes. And the problem is the American people believed him and the American people are not. I do think there are no good wars, but there are just wars. And I think the way you need to justify a war is to put it in the context of what will the increase in our deficits be, what will this cost and what are the other things we could do with this money? I think that needs to be a static part of decisions around any program or any military adventure, because sometimes I would argue it is worth it. And you could make an argument maybe what could go right here if we take out the premier sponsor of terror, which I believe Iran is 42 of the last 42 years rated number one state sponsor of terror. I believe we've been in a war with Iran's for 47 years, not two weeks. And it started when this regime came to power by their decision to take 112Americans hostage. The right analysis though would have been the escalation in the war. What would it cost us? What are the objectives? And is the incremental cost based on different scenarios which they didn't anticipate, Is it worth it? And we for some reason seem to be so good at measuring trade offs around. Well, Big Tech may be causing 1 in 18s to harm themselves, but the trillions of dollars in incremental market capitalization are set against that harm. And we decide, well, maybe if it's not justified, maybe it's worth it. We don't do that analysis around war anymore. We just assume, oh W said we could go to war for eight years and lower taxes and the American people believed him. But I would like to see, and I think some outlets are doing a good job of this, of every day saying what does this cost? And I wonder if and when the Democrats take control of potentially the White House and both chambers of Congress and if we might see just as vicious a lurch back to the left and see really significant, really significant military cut in military spending, because what's the point of spending $1.1 trillion a year if you need to make these types of incremental investments? It feels like we're circling the drain right now. It feels like it's just getting worse and worse. Any, any additional thoughts here, Jess?
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Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, I mean, the lack of interest in the MO of the campaign trail for Donald Trump, which was we're going to doge federal government. Right. And that we're going to start with the Pentagon, which has never actually passed an audit, is, you know, standing in very stark contrast to what's going on now. And they have all but given up on the idea of trying to get the $200 billion supplemental that they wanted because no one's going to vote for it. Even Republicans aren't going to vote for it. So now they're talking about taking it from health care. And you're absolutely right to be framing it around, you know, is it this or is it that? And that's what the right had actually been able to do super successfully. Right. Like that's how we got to the point where Donald Trump was believed to be the peace president and he ran a Very successful campaign on making people feel like they were being ignored because we were giving money to Ukraine, not even close to the amount of money that Ukraine needed. And it was an excellent return on our dollar for it, because that America first was all about. You got problems at home, right? Like your energy costs are up, your apartment costs too much, or you can't get on the housing ladder, your groceries are, you know, too high. And now it's like they've had a complete lobotomy and forgotten every single thing that they not only used on the campaign trail, but used effectively and were able to win from. It's nuts to me, like, when I'm sitting there talking to my colleagues and I say, you guys threw this in my face for years. Like, why are you just repeating the same mistakes? And I don't think that there's a scenario in which the average American feels any safer from this. I mean, the thing with Iraq and Afghanistan, and granted it was, you know, predicated on a lot of false information, but there was a direct link between what was going on there and the types of people that were in power and American peace and security here, right? Like that's what nine, eleven did. It made you afraid that who knows what could happen, right? It could happen in Pennsylvania, could happen in D.C. fly into the Twin Towers, etc. I get it that everybody can acknowledge the very true stat about Iran being, you know, the biggest state sponsor of terrorism, but I don't think that people feel that, and they only do in the last couple of weeks because there have been attacks that are spurned by what is going on in Iran. I think before that, there wasn't. It wasn't really on anyone's radar. And they've just been screaming from the rooftops that from the moment we kicked off Liberation Day to today, Donald Trump has been focused on everything but lowering cost of living for everyday Americans.
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Scott Galloway
It's a tired analogy, but it bears repeating. Can you imagine if Biden or Obama did this? Your show, the Five? It would be called the seizure. I can't even imagine. It would be 60 minutes of literally people having an absolute, uncontrolled, apocalyptic seizure of anger and disbelief that they would do this. So just some additional data. Since the start of the war, oil is up 60%. Gas prices in the US is up 30%. Gas prices in Europe are up 75%. So when we take action unilaterally, it ends up we hurt other people, including our allies, more than we hurt ourselves. Fertilizer is up 50%. That's another thing. People weren't talking about. As we go into the growth season, the markets S and P down 7%. The Dow down 7%. European stocks down more 8%. Japanese stocks a great ally. Well, they're really fucked. They're down 12%. See above. They're more dependent upon energy and their tankers are not getting through. And Global stocks are down 9%. And then let's wrap it all into one big number, and that is the OECD's 2026 inflation forecast has risen to 4.2%. And this goes back to a broader theme, and that is, I think Republicans like an uneducated populace because 4.2% doesn't sound. That sounds manageable. Oh, inflation's 4.2%. That's nothing to be alarmed about. But if you take math or you take algebra in high school and you're any good at it, what you realize is that 4.2% a year compounding means the following. Okay, we just had a kid. We're opening a 509 account. Why? Because to get our kid through the University of California, Santa Barbara, or smu, it's going to be probably a half a million bucks. We need to start saving now. No. If it costs half a million now when the kid is born, and if inflation holds at 4.2% for 18 years, that means the cost will be a million dollars in 18 years. 4.2% sounds manageable, maybe even a little cute and cuddly. That means every 18 years, the price of everything is doubling. So, no, you don't need to save half a million. You need to save a million. We need inflation down at 2%. And that means. That means your grandkids will have to pay a million, not your kids. But people don't see just how impactful these numbers are. And then I'll finish off with this. Kalshi is saying There is a 32% chance traffic at the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 15. Quick disclosure. Kalshi is a data provider for us. We use their data around politics, geopolitics and economics. We don't cite data anything around sports, but we do need to disclose that they're our data provider. Any closing comments here, Jess?
- [20:11]
Jessica Tarlov
Well, I'm glad you brought up the energy implications for our allies because, you know, there's talk of travel holidays where people are being encouraged across Europe, you know, to not take that trip. I'd add compressed gas to the list of items that come through the Strait of Hormuz that not only increase in the cost of it, but we can't have. Our hospitals will not run if we don't have compressed gas.
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Scott Galloway
Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.
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Botox Commercial Narrator 2
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Caller / Guest Named Sam
Yes.
- [20:53]
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- [21:07]
Scott Galloway
You can stop calling now.
- [21:08]
Botox Commercial Narrator 2
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- [21:16]
Podcast Host / Narrator
There's basically been one guy in Republican politics who's argued for regime change in Iran for years and for America to take a proactive military role in making it happen. Ambassador John Bolton, President Trump's former national security adviser. But now even Bolton says Donald Trump is messing it up.
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Scott Galloway
As far as we can tell, he did. No preparation of the opposition actually inside Iran.
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Caller / Guest Named Sam
No coordination. No effort to see what they would
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Scott Galloway
do, no effort to support them, to provide resources, money, arms, if that's what they wanted.
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Caller / Guest Named Sam
Telecommunications.
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Scott Galloway
Just no coordination at all, and they
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Caller / Guest Named Sam
don't seem prepared for it.
- [21:57]
Podcast Host / Narrator
How Trump lost the Republican Party's biggest Iran war. Hawk today. Explain every weekday and on Saturdays, too.
- [22:08]
Scott Galloway
Hi, I'm Brene Brown. And I'm Adam Grant. And we're here to invite you to
- [22:11]
Podcast Host / Narrator
the Curiosity Shop, a podcast that's a
- [22:14]
Scott Galloway
place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning. It's going to be fun. We rarely agree, but we almost never
- [22:22]
Podcast Host / Narrator
disagree, and we're always learning.
- [22:24]
Scott Galloway
That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. Welcome back.
- [22:35]
Jessica Tarlov
I wanted to ask you about the Magnificent Seven because that's kind of this parallel story that's going on. Obviously, we're losing tons of value from the market generally, but trillions in value of the Magnificent Seven has been wiped out. What do you think is going on there? This was just like, something I wanted to talk to you about. Like, are investors cooling on AI? Is there something else that's going on?
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Scott Galloway
I think these companies just got out over their skis and they were looking for a reason. So year to date, they're off 14% or somewhere between 14 and 16%, depending on how you look at it. And the S and P is down 6%. So they have Overindex down. But they had just such an incredible run for the last several years. I don't know if it's because of the war. I don't know if it's because people are figuring out that there's no way they can sustain or offer the type of efficiencies amongst their clients to justify the market capitalizations of these companies. I don't think it's directly related to the war. I think the people were just looking for a reason to take some money off the table and also having a really tough time justifying these valuations. But more importantly, more importantly, for the first time, I am insanely jealous of Jessica Tarlov. Do you know why I am insanely jealous of you? I mean, literally, I wish that was me.
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Jessica Tarlov
Because you can't pull off this level of pink.
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Podcast Host / Narrator
Why?
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Scott Galloway
Could that have been? No. Well, one, that's true, but I don't need that. There is something that happened to you that I wish I aspire to register someday. What am I talking about here, Jess?
- [24:15]
Jessica Tarlov
I think you're talking about the fact that the leader of the free world took a break from the war in Iran to call into the Five when I was not there and to shit talk me.
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Scott Galloway
Okay, let's.
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Jessica Tarlov
You really liked it.
- [24:29]
Scott Galloway
I texted you right away. Let's listen to the clip.
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Podcast Host / Narrator
Mr. President, the next time you do this on the five, can we have you on set? Because we really want you to sit next to Jessica. I think you'd be a good influence on her. Can you do that?
- [24:46]
Caller / Guest Named Sam
I think I watch Jessica and I'm not a fan. And she. She uses fake numbers. She'll give. Well, he's only polling 42%. That's not right. Polling very high, actually. I'm sure I'd like her. I'm sure she's a lovely person.
- [25:05]
Podcast Host / Narrator
Yeah, she's a lovely person. She really misses the fact that she's not here. I get it. We're working. Working on her. Don't worry.
- [25:10]
Caller / Guest Named Sam
Now, tell me, did she not want to do it, or did you kick her off the show?
- [25:14]
Podcast Host / Narrator
We didn't kick her off.
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Caller / Guest Named Sam
I like all of your shows. Actually, I'm glad Jessica's not there, because I think. No, actually, I think your show would be better without her. But, you know, who am I to say that isn't that. I think it would be a lot better. But, Kennedy, you're doing an excellent job.
- [25:30]
Scott Galloway
Oh, my God, Jessica, this is. This is your crowning achievement.
- [25:35]
Jessica Tarlov
I mean, he just, like, he should just be Busier than all of this. Like, obviously the polls aren't fake and, like, 42% was even being generous. But it hurts my soul that we have a president that thinks that cable news like Chacho is such real life to him that he can develop these kinds of opinions. And then also, like, you're my president, too, right? Like, I. I'm saying this for everybody that he shits on. Like, when he says to Kaitlan Collins, like, you should smile more when he goes after, you know, the fake news media when they target individuals. It's like, the job is to govern for all of us, even if we don't like you. And he just constantly misses the bar. I mean, he can't even see the bar.
- [26:28]
Scott Galloway
So my. My advice is the following. Don't be so mature. This is a huge win for you. In sum, he is scared of strong women. And as FDR said, judge me by my enemies. So I would ask everyone to judge Jessica Tarloff by her enemies today. This is a huge feather in your cap that you are living rent free in the brain of a guy who clearly watches way too much television and whose views that you articulate upset him because the truth has a really nice ring to it. This is an enormous accomplishment. I couldn't be more proud of you, more excited to be associated with you. This is a crowning achievement for you. This means you're relevant. It means you're right. It means you're unafraid. As I said, judge Jessica Tarlov by her enemies. All right, thank you. Before we go, a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates now five days a week, we're now available on Substack. Subscribers get ad, free episodes, live streams, and a place to connect with me, Jess, and the rest of the community. Find us at ragingmoderates.propgmedia.com Also, as I continue to pat us on the back, big news. We've been nominated for a Webby Award for best news and politics podcast. We need your help to bring it home. Please head to vote.webyawards.com vote.webbyawards.com you want to send President Trump a message? Go to vote.webyawards.com and cast your vote for Raging Moderates for best politics Podcasts. Show us some love. That's all for this episode. Thanks for joining us today.
- [28:13]
Jessica Tarlov
See you later,
- [28:17]
Caller / Guest Named Sam
Sam.