← Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Trump’s War in Iran Accomplished Nothing (ft. Tommy Vietor)
00:39:40
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- [00:02]
A
What goes up must come down. Except when it comes to gas prices. The price tends to rocket up very quickly at the pump, as when crude oil prices go up, but gasoline prices tend to take a little bit longer to go down in many cases. This week on Explain it to me why gas and everything else is so expensive these days. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. We went through an entire year of lecturing them that Europe was their problem, Ukraine was their problem. They need to focus on their defense and their continent, and now we're telling them to mop up after us and clean up our war. I mean, it's just. It is entirely incoherent. It is just Trump trying to blame someone else for the disaster that he caused. I don't think it's serious or credible. I mean, it sounds like we're kind of cutting off our nose to spite our face here.
- [00:56]
B
Welcome to Reaching Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov, and I'm very psyched today to have Tommy Vitor with us. He hosts Pod Save the World. Pod Save America. I don't know, do people usually lead with World Over America?
- [01:07]
A
You know, whenever there's a genocide being threatened, we can go with that one first, I guess.
- [01:11]
B
Okay. We already hit genocide. Also, former spokesperson for the National Security Council under President Obama. Tommy, thank you for joining me.
- [01:19]
A
Thank you for having me. It's great to see you.
- [01:21]
B
If you aren't already, please subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all politics news. Also huge news. Huge. We've been nominated for a Webby Award for the best news and politics podcast in the whole universe. I don't know if that's true, but it feels really good and it feels that big. We need you guys to vote. We're up against a Midas Touch podcast and they have, like, an army. It's like a pro democracy army over there. So please go to vote.webbyawards.com and cast your vote. I know it's a little wonky to do it, but I would really appreciate it if you would. And if Scott were here, he would also implore you to do so.
- [01:59]
A
It's been a while. Last time I saw you was at crooked con in D.C. we had a lot of fun.
- [02:02]
B
Yeah, we did have a lot of fun. Yeah, it was. I told you when I saw you at the after party, like, I'm never around liberals, so it was interesting.
- [02:10]
A
I watch you do battle on TV all the time, like, almost every day, and I just gotta say, like, God damn, you are A good fighter. I would, I would, I would lose. I'd flip the table and walk out.
- [02:20]
B
I think on my last day, whatever that may be. And I'm not. Don't get excited. If you're Donald Trump listening to this. We could do a table flip or something.
- [02:28]
A
Please.
- [02:29]
B
You've hung with Jesse Waters. You know that? Like, he's actually a good hang.
- [02:32]
A
He seems like he's in on the bit. I can't ever tell if Gutfeld what he's doing. He just wears the funniest clothes. Sort of sits there in that corner seat, slink down, talking shit. It's great. Anyway, I enjoy watching you.
- [02:43]
B
It's a vibe. The five is a vibe. And the war in Iran is a vibe as well. Very. That was a terrible segue.
- [02:51]
A
Seamless transition.
- [02:52]
B
Here we go. So I've been saying this since the announcement of the cease fire, that there is no ceasefire. And I think that we should stop using that term in general. Missiles are still flying all over the Middle east in every direction. It seems like the US was really the only ones that slowed down, frankly, at all. Donald Trump continues to declare victory, but also is demanding that our European allies send military support to help us get the Strait of Hormuz open. The Iranians are now saying that at max we 15 vessels will be getting through. It is still unclear what they will be charging, whether it's the dollar a barrel paid in crypto or the 2 million per tanker that they'll split with the Omanis. Either way, it's usually 100 ships that get through. They're supposed to be big negotiations on Saturday with Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and J.D. vance for the American side. Where do you think that we stand at this moment?
- [03:51]
A
I'm with you. I mean, I think there's sort of like a ceasefire, name only. I mean, the biggest deb at the moment is over whether Lebanon is included in the terms of the ceasefire. And it seems like it, it is or was supposed to be because the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shabazz Sharif, tweeted out in no uncertain terms that there was a ceasefire effective immediately. And he said, quote, everywhere, including Lebanon. So we also now know that Sharif's previous tweet where he was like, talks are going well. He was sort of pushing Trump for a two week extension. The New York Times reported today that that language had already been seen and signed off on by the White House. So it seems like now everyone is trying to pretend that Lebanon was not included, especially the Israelis, who are just absolutely pounding targets in Lebanon, I think they hit 100 targets in 10 minutes on Wednesday. So it doesn't seem like they're pretty keen on there being a ceasefire deal. Obviously, as you said, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. There is a 400 some odd tanker backlog. And if they're going to let through 15 boats a day, like that's not going to do anything to lessen that problem. So this feels quite tenuous at best.
- [05:00]
B
Absolutely. And, I mean, when you say Israel's not keen for Lebanon to be included, I don't even really count Israel as being included. And I think that that is the perspective that Bibi Netanyahu has as well, because the Israelis were openly very frustrated that they weren't in these talks to begin with. At least the latest round that included the draft tweet that came, it seems like, from our side. I'm sure you saw that it originally it had, like, draft for Pakistani Prime Minister, and then they were like, oh, shit, gotta take that down. Oops. Okay, so we agree. Tenuous at best. I saw as well that if we move off of war footing in the Israeli context, that Bibi's corruption trial will resume on Sunday.
- [05:48]
A
Interesting.
- [05:49]
B
Which I hadn't thought about in a while, but is continually a factor. You know, we've talked about that with Trump as well. Like, he had to win the 2024 election. Right. To be able to stay out of a courtroom. And Bibi Netanyahu is very much in a similar position on his home turf.
- [06:07]
A
Yeah. It's worth Remembering that before October 7th, there were massive protests in the streets in Israel because Netanyahu was basically trying to shred the judicial system in Israel to take over more power to keep himself out of prison. He's got a number of corruption trials. It ranges from kind of like venal, you know, typical kind of corruption, like accepting cigars and champagne and other gifts, to, like, major regulatory giveaways to media organizations in exchange for good coverage. So he's a corrupt, terrible leader who has a lot of reasons why he wants to avoid an election and stay in power and keep himself out of jail.
- [06:46]
B
I want to, I guess, swerve it to what you think is possible at this point. And I've been trying very hard to, you know, look at successes where there have been. And there have certainly been some major military successes, though I still am a bit cloudy on the why now in all of this, you know, we are. Iran has been an existential threat for a very long time. Right. And people saying, like, this was imminent from, you know, the last 47 years, that was Tom Cotton's line, I think.
- [07:17]
A
Nonsense.
- [07:17]
B
Yeah, total nonsense. So what do you think is a best case scenario for us looking at the facts on the ground?
- [07:26]
A
Well, so the context for me is the Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, I think, took 18 months to negotiate. J.D. vance has, what, 10 days left to cut a deal? And so there, you know, maybe they can negotiate another ceasefire extension, and maybe it's an actual ceasefire this time that allows an opening through the Strait of Hormuz that leads to Trump punting again and again. But, I mean, I just. I find it incredibly unlikely that Trump is going to find some broader deal that resolves all the things he says he wants to resolve. I mean, if you think about the priorities, like, the number one priority is dealing with Iran's nuclear program in the spirit of being a raging moderate. Like, certainly their nuclear sites are badly damaged, but we were under the impression that, that they were totally obliterated last June. The problem is that there's still 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium sitting in Iran somewhere. And you could take some of that, spin it in some centrifuges, enrich it, and get to bomb grade pretty quickly. So that is a real problem. And I suspect most analysts think that Iran is more motivated than ever to seek a nuclear weapon as a deterrent because they don't want to get bombed every six months. Again, like Iran's military. We did a ton of damage to them, right? The Navy, the Air Force, the air defense systems. But, like, that was not an existential threat to the United States. It might have been to Israel. We also bombed their industrial capacity and ability to rebuild, but they still have the ability to fire 15 to 30 missiles a day, 50 to 100 drones a day. So they have some capacity to create economic havoc in the region. And then there was this question of their support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. And I think going forward, the big question for me is, will Iran be able to continue to charge this toll on tanker ships? Because if the answer is yes, that gives them a massive financial windfall that they can use to both replenish their military and to support Hamas, Hezbollah, all the groups we say we want them to stop supporting. So, you know, that doesn't seem. That. That seems like a very bad setup. And then the final one is regime change. I mean, remember, Trump was saying early on not only that he wanted regime change, but that he wanted to pick the next leader. Instead, we swapped Ali Khamenei, who was 86, and going to regime Change naturally to his younger, more hardline son, whose entire family we have killed. So it doesn't. Like, in no way do I feel like we're in a better position vis a vis Iran now than we were before this war started.
- [09:46]
B
And do you think our European allies are going to heed Trump's latest warning or threat that they have to support us militarily when it comes to the strait?
- [09:57]
A
I mean, like, do they really have the capacity to do that much? I don't think they do.
- [10:02]
B
I don't know. It's like we. The whiplash between the positions of, like, haha at the idea that there is a decent set of armed forces across Europe, let alone a navy that could help us out, too. Like, God damn it, why aren't you sending all of your best men and gals, though? I don't think Trump and Hexad's ever say gals to help us out is very confusing to me. Like, are they the weakest organization in human history without any good warfighters, or are they going to be our saviors in this partnership?
- [10:36]
A
Yeah, it's hard to say.
- [10:36]
B
Yeah.
- [10:37]
A
Like, we look, the French have some ships, the, you know, the Germans have some military capacity. The UK has some capacity, but not nearly what we have. And by the way, we just, we went through an entire year of lecturing them that Europe was their problem, Ukraine was their problem. They need to focus on their defense and their continent. And now we're telling them to mop up after us and clean up our war. I mean, it's just. It is entirely incoherent. It is just Trump trying to blame someone else for the disaster that he caused. I don't think it's serious or credible. And it sounds like now they're examining all these ways that the US could potentially punish NATO countries that didn't go along with this gambit, including by pulling U.S. forces out of a country like Spain. But, I mean, at the end of the day, it's like us having four deployed troops like that helps us project power. So we're kind of cutting off our nose despite our face here.
- [11:28]
B
Absolutely. I do want to Naito hop a little bit, I guess. I mean, Secretary Ruta in his comments sounded, I don't want to say, as bad as Todd Blanche and that press conference that he gave as the interim ag, But I'm watching, you know, this play out with JD Vance in Hungary stumping for Viktor Orban, which is somehow not political interference. I certainly don't understand how that's the case. And then there's reporting, which I hadn't seen before, that Hungary had actually offered assistance to Iran after the pager attack last year. So just, just to be clear, like we're trying to get a peace deal or at least a legitimate cease fire with the Iranians, as JD Vance is palling around with Orban, who stands shoulder to shoulder with the Iranians anyway, the craziness of all of that and then at the same time, the continued threats that the US Is going to leave Naito or at least scale back our presence there. So how, I guess, strong do you think the alliance is at this particular moment and what do you make of J.D. vance in Hungary?
- [12:33]
A
Yeah, well, I'll start with J.D. vance. I mean, it is, it is remarkable to me, first of all, it's remarkable to me politically that he's there because Europe is now facing its own energy shock, its energy crisis. Most of it's in the form of natural gas. I think everyone knows that the reason for that is the war with Iran. And you know, you're seeing reports that even the most right wing parties in Europe, like the AfD in Germany, the neo Nazis in Germany, are now distancing themselves from Donald Trump because he is becoming so unpopular. And yet J.D. vance, who has none of Trump's actual political appeal or sense of humor or like Riz out there on the stump, is showing up in Hungary to stump for this illiberal populist who is not only like, you know, he's as corrupt as corrupt gets. And you know, for your listeners, like, I don't just mean corruption in the form of taking bribes or whatever, but he's doing that, you know, he's installing like his brother in law and key positions, but I mean, like corrupting the entire state of Hungary, the courts, the media, all of it to enrich himself and to keep his party, the Fidesz party, in power. On top of that, like, Putin uses Orban to screw with the EU and prevent any support for Ukraine. Netanyahu uses Orban to prevent the EU from sanctioning Israel. The Chinese use Orban, they give him money and investment and prevent China from being sanctioned in the eu. And now Trump's using Orban to kind of mess with the EU over like media laws for tech companies or whatever and all the things they don't like. So it's just, it's crazy to me that like this is the guy we've gone all in on. But that's kind of been where the MAGA world has been for a long time in terms of NATO's capacity, like, Trump is not wrong, I don't think when he says sort of NATO is us. Like, so much of the NATO architecture is built on US Military power and, you know, interoperability and assets and whatever. So it would be a massive problem if he were to pull out of NATO. The good news is that I think Marco Rubio passed a law saying that it would require an act of Congress to actually formally pull out of NATO, though you could do a lot of things to weaken and hobble it in the interim.
- [14:35]
B
Yeah, I feel like we've stopped talking about Putin a bit in all of this. Like, the beginning of the war, we were talking about him all the time and, like, how he's going to be a net beneficiary of it. And then that talking point went away. And I would like to bring it back because it seems like this ceasefire and what basically everything our administration is doing is just giving him more time. Right. And more power, cash, weapons, et cetera, and then also really helping the Chinese. So can you, like, Axis of Evil US a little bit about how everyone is benefiting?
- [15:12]
A
I'll David from this for you. The Russians are the most obvious one, as you just said. I mean, when the oil prices go way up, Putin is reaping way more revenue. On top of that, the US Was, you know, getting rid of sanctions on Russia to allow the people to buy their oil. So Putin is winning in every sense, economically in terms of the oil markets. At the same time, I think, like, any, like, bandwidth and mind share that might have come out of the White House, or like Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner and those guys, for Trump to push Putin to agree to a ceasefire or a peace deal with Ukraine, it's just gone. Right. Like, you can only do a certain number of things at a time. And if we're busy trying to topple the, you know, we're running Venezuela, we're waging this war with Iran, we're preparing to topple Cuba. Like, Trump's team just doesn't have the time to focus on Ukraine. Now the Chinese, I think they're benefiting in kind of a different way. They are going to be harmed by, you know, higher energy prices in the long term, though, they have much bigger stockpiles. But I think they benefit from the United States just looking like a crazy, unreliable partner to the rest of the world. And also, you know, on a more kind of concrete military terms, Xi Jinping knows that the United States is expending all of its interceptor missiles. We're firing off all the Tomahawk missiles or the TLAM missiles that one would use in a war with China. And so we're certainly hobbling ourselves militarily. If there were a conflict with the Chinese going forward, do you think that
- [16:39]
B
they're eyeing Taiwan more seriously as all of this is going on or that's just like a. I don't. Old school Republican. A pre MAGA Republican talking point, I guess.
- [16:49]
A
I mean, I think that Xi Jinping, much like Putin, kind of views reunification as part of his legacy projects. In what form that will take, when he will do that is is known only to him. I mean, the date you always hear is 2027, which is, I think when some US general testifying before Congress said he thought the PLA would be ready to take Taiwan. But I mean, we don't really even know what that would mean. Like, would it mean some sort of blockade on the island? Would it mean actually landing troops? Would it mean, you know, a full scale invasion? We don't know. I do think ultimately reunification is Xi Jinping's goal and he is not going to hide it.
- [17:28]
B
Do you think Trump still goes on his trip to China now? I mean, it's been pushed back once already.
- [17:33]
A
Yeah, I mean, I think he has to. I think he probably knows it's the most important meeting he'll have this year. He loves the stage. I mean, remember the last time Trump was in China, like they took him to the old city, they threw him like a big special tea party and dinner. He like wouldn't stop talking about it for months. Like, he loves the pomp and circumstances and being on the biggest world stage. So I think he knows he has to go. The thing that would worry me if I were Taiwan is that Trump is desperate for an economic deal with China that he can sell back home is somehow beneficial to us. I think he will be thrilled to give up whatever kind of ancillary things, anything human rights related that Xi Jinping wants. So that would not give me a lot of hope.
- [18:11]
B
Okay, let's take a break. Stay with us. Wallet. Feeling extra light after the holidays? Yeah, same. But recovery starts right now with TikTok Slash and free. Here's how it works. Pick the products you want in TikTok, shop, share the link and watch the price drop all the way to zero. No tricks, no catch, just free stuff with free shipping. Download TikTok, search, slash, free and start slashing today.
- [18:47]
A
For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist, who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016. I've had a front row seat. I am officially running for President of the United States. It's going to be only America First. America first. Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. capitol building. But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm going to ask in our new show from vox.
- [19:25]
B
The idea of like a post Trump or not exactly Trump focused show can
- [19:28]
A
exist because he's not really driving any agenda items.
- [19:30]
B
It really does feel like so reactive.
- [19:32]
A
You know, I think this Iran thing is also going to cause a big split in the gop. So far it doesn't among like people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump. But like for the first time, you see on a major issue, open opposition from the start of this war. I'm Estet Herndon and welcome to America. Actually.
- [19:52]
B
Hi, I'm Brene Brown.
- [19:54]
A
And I'm Adam Grant. And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop, a podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling and questioning.
- [20:02]
B
It's going to be fun.
- [20:04]
A
We rarely agree, but we almost never disagree and we're always learning. That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite
- [20:13]
B
podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. Welcome back. You know, we've just talked for 15 minutes about various crises all over the world. We just got a GDP report that's been revised even further, down 2.5%. We have a war in Iran. People can't afford their electricity, certainly can't afford college, go on vacations. Healthcare skyrocketing, and our party is talking a lot about Hassan. Piker. I got the rundown yesterday for the Five and it was our C block. And I get, we did war, we did a couple blocks of war. And then we're talking about Hassan, who is a very prominent twitch streamer who has made, if you're being generous, a lot of incendiary comments. And there are lot of people and a lot of ink that has been spilled about anti Semitic comments, misogynistic comments, et cetera. But he was invited to campaign in the Michigan Senate primary on the Democratic side that put this front and center. Either way, it's become this existential question, I guess, within the party. And I wanted to play you a little bit of Jesse Waters talking about Hasan yesterday on the show.
- [21:30]
A
How is this not toxic masculinity? You know, the people that often call you A toxic masculine source are embracing this guy. They are. Well, who cares? The thing about this is I kind of liked his answer to it. He goes, I don't think we want to get into platform policing and cancel culture. I agree with that. So if this guy wants to run and win, he thinks this guy could help him win. Give it a shot. Give it a shot in Michigan. You know what? I respect it. Own it. What? It could cost you huge. But what is going on? Feel, do it. I really don't care.
- [22:12]
B
Strange bad fellows that get made. And watching the way that Hasan does his stream, I do understand how captivating it is for people to just watch him, what, 12, 14 hours a day doing that. Where do you fall on. I guess the broader question is not just about Hasan Piker. Right. It's about how we do media.
- [22:33]
A
Yeah.
- [22:34]
B
And what lessons we've learned from 2024.
- [22:36]
A
Yeah. Allow me to unburden myself for a second. Look, first of all, I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of everything Hasan has said. As you mentioned, he streams for, like, 12 hours a day. I'm sure he said a lot of stuff. I agree with some stuff. I disagree with, some stuff I found offensive. Like, that's not remotely surprising for the media business. Right. I do want to take a step back and just say, like, Democrats need to end this stupid debate about platforming or, like, not talking to certain people because we disagree with them. First of all, Hasan has a huge platform, and every time someone attacks him, it makes it bigger. Right. So we just be honest about that.
- [23:05]
B
I think the searches are up 180% for him.
- [23:08]
A
There you go. Yeah, there you go. But if you disagree with him, you have a couple options. Go on his show, explain why, or don't go on his show and don't explain why. But, like, let's not gatekeep other people and tell them what to do. Or, like, demand that John Ossoff needs to condemn Hasan Piker because Hasan said some nice things about. About John Ossoff. Like, that's how this whole stupid thing started. And I feel so strongly about this because I'm mad at myself for not speaking out about this exact dynamic in, like, 2018 and 2020. There was this online policing of Democrats by Democrats, of Democrats, and, like, scolding people if they wanted to go on barstool sports or talk to some edgy comedian or go on Joe Rogan. And it was complete and total political malpractice because we vacated the playing field and Republicans filled it and then they won. And so to win elections, we have to talk to people we disagree with, including having conversations with people whose views might offend us. We don't have to agree with them, we just have to talk to them. And with respect to this recent conversation about Hasan specifically, I just think we should be clear that I think that this is part of a strategy to attack Hasan and, and, and kill off debate about Israeli policies and political leaders that are entirely legitimate. And I've experienced those kinds of attacks myself, and I can tell you it's unbelievably frustrating because a lot of the groups doing it are, are operating in bad faith. And like, again, to be clear, anti Semitism is a scourge. I will call it out. I have called it out. Is obviously wrong, and it's anti Semitic to, for example, blame all Jews for Israeli government policies. But what I, what I find frustrating is the Israel's defenders often do is they take totally legitimate criticism of Israeli government policies or political leaders and say that that is anti Semitic. And I, I find that wrong and offensive because, like, I criticize US Political leaders all the time and US Policies all the time, but I still love America, right? And, like, right now, it's manifesting in this conversation about the role Netanyahu played in encouraging Trump to go to war with Iran. And we can dig into that if you want, but, like, the, the strategy predates that. Like, there's an organization called the International Holocaust remembrance alliance, or ihra. They released their definition of anti Semitism. It includes things that we would all agree with, like Holocaust denial. Like, that's obviously anti Semitic, but it also says that, quote, applying double standards by requiring of Israel a behavior not expected or demanded of any other democratic nation, that, that is anti Semitic. What the fuck does that even mean? Like, I, I think every nation should not bomb Palestinian civilians. Does that, does that solve the problem? Right? Like, that's where I'm coming from on this. And just one final thing. Like, I find it so frustrating that we're talking about talking to Hassan Piker and whether that's out of bounds when every president, every member of Congress, every cabinet official meets with Bibi Netanyahu, an ICC indicted war criminal who is directly responsible for thousands of innocent deaths in Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran. Like, this guy is corrupt, human, he's racist, he's venal, he's an awful leader. And as we said before, like, before October 7th, he was trying to destroy their judicial system to keep himself out of jail. So, like, that is the problem to me, like, He's a bad person. He's a bad leader. It is not his religion that I have a problem with.
- [26:14]
B
Yeah, I mean, I, I agree with a large chunk of what you just said. And, you know, I have not used the term genocide for what went on in Gaza, but I certainly can see things that be commensurate with war crimes. There was a famine, and it was very clear that Israel was the problem with the food and supplies getting into Gaza. And I think that you're completely right that using Hassan, who has said some incredibly offensive things about Israel, I get, I, I don't even. This is the problem. I don't even know how to talk about this, which is how we get tripped up into these convers. And I went through, and I made sure before I went on the five that I had looked at all of the statements that are being run in these montages of the things that he said. And if there were explanations for them, if there had been corrections like he has said, it was a mistake, obviously, to say that America deserved 9, 11, something like that. That gets used a lot, not just by the right, but by the left. And I think the reality on the ground is that we have to, especially as Democrats, deal with this problem of the huge fissure between the American left and the state of Israel, and it falls squarely on Bibi Netanyahu. Like, that is the, the line in the sand essentially, for why we have seen this split. So it's 60% of all Americans now have a negative view. This is according to the latest Pew polling, and it's a majority of people, no matter their politics, under the age of 50. And so if you're looking at this, if you're an Israeli person or you are an Israeli politician and you're looking at life after Bibi, whenever that comes, I, I'm sure you're essentially crapping your pants saying, like, we are not going to be able to have a good and decent relationship with this country because of it. And you, you mentioned, you know, Bibi's role in this war, that New York Times piece, the Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman piece with Bibi in the Situation Room, I brought that up on air yesterday to just say, like, guys, everyone in the meeting except for Trump and Hegseth saw that it was ranging from farcical to bullshit. And you're talking about Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, you know, hawkish people, right? Like, people who know what the threat that Iran poses is. And I don't know how we, I don't know how we get around, I guess, having a fissure with Israel now. And you. And you see a lot of people who are in the moderate camp that are saying that, like, that we can't be giving aid to them anymore. We can't be supplying them with weapons anymore.
- [28:50]
A
Yeah. I mean, look, I think that there is an enormous fissure and anger at the Israeli government and Netanyahu specifically on the left, but also a growing one on the right. I mean, listen to any episode of Tucker Carlson. There's a lot of focus there. A lot of people say he can cross the line, anti Semitic comments. But a lot of it is a focus on, you know, Israeli government policies and whatever. Like, whatever it is, it's influential. But just, I mean, on this broader question of like, sort of Netanyahu's role, I mean, it just. Look, Trump is. Trump is the decider. You know, he. He owns his decision no matter what. Right? But Netanyahu obviously lobbied Trump hard to go to war with Iran. He's asked every, like, president in. In modern history to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. I mean, I know this because it happened to Obama, but still, like, you know, yesterday I was. I saw this group called Camera, which kind of like polices media coverage around Israeli issues, put out a press release attacking its. Its attacking the press for its coverage of Israel's role in pushing Trump to go to war with Iran. And their press release said NATO pushed Obama to go to war in Libya, but no one ever blames NATO countries for that decision. And, Mike, I read that, and I thought you're making the opposite point. Right? Because actually, I was there. I remember the French pushed Barack Obama really, really hard. President Sarkozy pushed Obama really hard. Sarkozy did want the United States to fight his war against Gaddafi for him. And there's a lot of really sketchy reasons for it now that I won't get into. I've talked about this before. I've talked about how weird it was. No one calls me Francophobic when I say that. Right? Like, no one accuses me of hating all French people. It was politics. These are political decisions. Like, this is kind of like standard fare, and yet there's this expectation that we have to kind of, like, tread softly when talking about Netanyahu's role in advocating for this war when back home he brags about his ability to manipulate leaders in Washington. And I think, like, when we silence that debate, when we scare people out of having an honest conversation about it, when we make someone like you who talks for a living, like, feel uncomfortable Having these debates, they get pushed to Nick Fuentes show or, you know, Tucker's show, and people are like, oh, that's where the real, the honest conversation is happening. So I'm going to turn that way. And I think, like, that is part of the big problem.
- [31:08]
B
I totally agree with you. And it loops back to, I guess, what you're saying initially about being able to go everywhere and have these conversations. And I brought this up at Crooked Con at your conference, which you so generously invited me to, to be on a panel with Hasan Piker, where I said that in a lot of ways the conversation that I'm having and I'll be. I get interrupted and, and all these things are happening. But there is something that I have always felt is quite frank, freeing about being in conservative media for me, because I'm not being policed all the time. And the left to some degree gives me a free pass with some stuff because they're like, oh, well, she works with these people, right? Or like, what are you going to do? You're going to fight about every single thing that's said? Or like, you know, she's a raging moderate, so of course she's not going to think that, you know, Hillary is as bad as Donald Trump or whatever was being sold on, you know, the left flank of our party at the 2016 election. And I think genuinely that, like, on some days I'm having a much better time in the conversation. I'm having a louder and more impassioned conversation. I'm fighting harder to get my points out in some cases, but there's a real exchange of ideas that's going on and I would rather be doing that than this kind of like, self flagellation ring that's going on a lot on our side. And it has gotten better, I think, since the 2024 election. But it is far from perfect. And everyone preaches the right talking points, like, you know, I on the prize, like affordability, affordability. And then I'm like, why is Hassan Piker like the C block in my rundown? And like, why is this what we're expending our energy with? Like, if you like him, great. If you don't like him, also great. He doesn't care. That's the thing. Also, I've noticed from watching him, his feelings don't get hurt by any of this. And it doesn't seem like he's coming out that hard. Also, against the people who are saying, I don't want to appear with him, he's just like, okay, well, I'm gonna go do this thing.
- [33:07]
A
And I just like, I think to see this from his point of view for a second, it's like people are mad at him because of some of the words he said, which, you know, in some cases might be offensive, right? Or bad. But he's like, I'm trying to call attention to kids getting bombed in Gaza or Lebanon. And like, how is that not worse? How is that not a bigger deal? How is that not the thing that is like seizing our attention in this moment? And on your broader point, like, I, like, I think there was like some hysteria around cancel culture and like Democrats got kind of pegged with it and a lot of it was. But there was a real problem of like online mobs coming down on random people for saying random shit and like punishing them and exiling them in a way that was like, there was no path back, right? There was no sense of forgiveness or any way to like get back into the, to the circle or the, or you know, whatever the debate was. And that was really bad. Now I do think this kind of platforming conversation, like people on the left can, can cheer for Hasan. Where it gets more complicated for them is what about letting anti abortion candidates into the tent? What about a really religious candidate or going on a religious show where those people have more conservative social views, right? This is where it gets uncomfortable and this is where it gets complicated. But I think the way you, the only way out is through. Go on, talk about it, argue about it. That is the point of politics. We do politics so that we don't kill each other with swords on some field in fucking England somewhere. Like, that's what we're doing here. So like, let's just do it.
- [34:31]
B
Yeah, I totally agree. And you know, I had regularly said, like, Joe Manchin votes with you 93% of the time. Like, why are you wasting your arrows?
- [34:40]
A
And I've been there. Look, I, I found him super annoying at times. He triggered me. John Federman triggers me. I complain about him all the time. Like, so I'm, I'm trying to do better. But you're fundamentally right.
- [34:50]
B
I'm not saying that you can't have legitimate criticisms, but the ostracization or the ideas of supporting I think, you know, dead end primaries, at least for the districts that you're talking about, because you don't like one or two positions of these people, I think is a fool's errand. And it sends a very bad message to a lot of moderates and a lot of independent people, which is you know, the biggest majority block now, the people who identify as an independent, but they say, I don't want to do this. Like, like Jared Goldin being hounded out of politics is something that I will like never get over.
- [35:29]
A
Yes, it's that. And look, you know, you mentioned Viktor Orban earlier. I mean, Victor Orban has an election coming up on April 12th. It is the biggest political threat he has faced in like, I think 16 years. And the only way that it seems like his opponent, Peter Magyar is running against him successfully is he's a former member of the Fides Party, Orban's party. He left. So he is like center right, if not pretty conservative, but he is running with the broadest possible coalition because that is how you defeat an authoritarian movement. It has to be the biggest tent possible. We all know that. We just have to like live those values in our own lives.
- [36:00]
B
Absolutely. Really quickly, before I let you go. California governor's race. Trump has endorsed another one of my former colleagues. They are all over Steve Hilton. Eric Swalwell was very commandingly in the lead on the Democratic side at about 60%, according to Kalshee. That has dropped a lot there of accusations, swirling of sexual harassment from former staff staffers. What do you think is going to happen?
- [36:24]
A
So I was like, I have a lot of friends who work in or around kind of like the governor's office or work in California politics. Before Trump decided to jump in and endorse Steve Hilton, they were terrified because for your listeners, like the way California elections work, it's a so called jungle primary. So the top two vote getters go on to the general election. And there was a real chance that Steve Hilton and the Republican and then this other guy named Chad Bianco. Yeah, we're going to be the top two vote getters because all these other Democrats were going to split the vote below them. What Trump did was like a gift from God. He came in and he endorsed Steve Hilton and elevated Hilton. So it's likely now that Hilton and some other Democrat will go forward. And so I, I'm stunned that he would do this for us. Like, I think the Democratic Party was preparing to try to elevate Hilton with tens of millions of dollars worth of ads to ensure that a Democrat and a Republican went forward. Like, I have no idea who's going to win this primary. There's like, I live in la. I can't tell you how little attention is being paid to it because Trump just blots out the sun. There's a lot of great candidates in there, like, you know, Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer. Right. There's a lot of people that are, like, well established. I have truly no idea who's going to win at this point.
- [37:40]
B
Okay. But at least we got to say jungle primary. And yeah, I was the little I was paying attention. I was like, are there going to be two Republicans in this race? And also, who is Chad? Bianca.
- [37:52]
A
Yeah.
- [37:54]
B
Tommy, this was awesome. Thanks for coming on.
- [37:56]
A
Thank you so much for having me. It's great to be here.
- [37:57]
B
Before we go, a reminder that Raging Moderates is not only five days a week, we're also on Substack. Scott and I did our first Substack Live yesterday. Did you watch it? It's still up there if you want to. Subscribers get ad free episodes, live streams, and a place to connect with me, Scott, the whole Prof. G. Universe. Plus, you'll get access to the new Raging Moderates newsletter, the Monday Rage, which is out now. Find us@raging moderates.prof.gmedia.com and also the biggest news in the whole world. We were nominated for a Webby Award, Best news in Politics podcast. It's a really big deal, but we need you guys to vote for us so that we can win. And we love to win. We're winners. Go to vote.webbyawards.com Cast your vote for us. Raging Moderates. Best news and politics pod. That's all for this episode. Thanks so much for joining today.