Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Episode: Very Early Predictions for the 2028 Presidential Primary

Guest: Kristen Soltis Anderson

Release Date: October 10, 2025
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jessica Tarlov hosts Republican pollster and opinion columnist Kristen Soltis Anderson for a wide-ranging, centrist discussion about the evolution of American political divisions, trends in voter sentiment, and very early predictions for the 2028 presidential primaries. They delve into whether the "center" is truly being ignored, how party primaries are shaping electoral choices, the challenge of appealing to a diverse base, and the undercurrents reshaping both the Democratic and Republican parties. Memorable moments include discussion of AOC’s potential future, J.D. Vance’s grip on the GOP, and the challenging rise of nihilism and political violence among the American electorate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Myth and Reality of Political Polarization

[01:17–04:04]

• Kristen Soltis Anderson introduces her NYT piece, "Politicians Are Polarized. American Voters? Not So Much," unpacking the data showing a persistent, even growing, centrist segment of the electorate.
• Polling shows a significant group of Americans are "heterodox" — socially conservative on some issues while favoring government intervention and social safety nets economically.
• The actual “far right” and “far left” groups comprise only about 13% each of the voting public, despite outsized media attention to polarization.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [03:36]:
"There are a lot of Americans that don't take all of column A and all of column B... They actually tend to be more socially conservative but fiscally progressive... And that group is actually growing by about two points every year."

• Congressional polarization contrasts with voters’ more mixed stances, highlighting disconnect between elected officials and the electorate.

2. Primary Electorate Dynamics

[04:04–06:15]

• The most ideologically committed Republicans dominate their primaries, leading to more extreme nominees, whereas Democratic primary turnout is less ideologically skewed.
• Notable differences: While loud voices on the far-left dominate online discourse, centrist Democrats have often prevailed in primaries (e.g., Joe Biden in 2020).

Kristen Soltis Anderson [05:16]:
"The primary electorate challenge is especially acute on the Republican side in terms of them being pretty ideologically all in one camp and there not being as much wiggle room..."

Jessica Tarlov [04:04]:
"When you do find them [centrists], they're being primaried because they've committed the cardinal sin of actually appealing to purple people."

3. Early 2028 Presidential Primary Predictions

[07:14–10:17]

Democrats:

• Rising speculation about AOC as a primary front-runner; her media savvy and populist tone could make her viable.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [06:43]:
"I'm still of the mind that somebody like AOC could win, but I don't think it's because she's really far out there on the left. I think it's because she's pretty media savvy and she's good at...populist tone."

Republicans:

• J.D. Vance identified as the probable favorite if Trump does not run, largely due to his alignment with the activist base and ability to channel Trump's message more “smoothly.”
• If Trump’s second term ends poorly, a window for other candidates (e.g., Rubio, Hegseth) might open, but current data shows Vance as dominant.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [08:11]:
"It’d be very, very, very challenging for someone to successfully challenge J.D. Vance...he has his finger on the pulse of what that activist base really wants in a way that very few other figures do."

4. Party Brand, Strength, and Midterm Calculus

[10:17–15:33]

• Despite Trump’s sagging ratings on the economy and immigration, dissatisfaction has not translated into Democratic support.
• Democrats today mirror the “powerless and leaderless” vibe of 2010s Republicans: internal dissatisfaction and struggles to articulate a proactive vision.
• Perceived party “strength” and efficacy favor the GOP in recent polling, even as they are seen as slightly more “extreme.”
• Voters continue to oscillate in search of solutions, leading to frequent power changes and a heightened “thermostat” effect.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [12:11]:
"...while Republicans were more likely to be viewed as extreme...they were also much more likely to be viewed as strong and effective. And so that, to me, is a big problem Democrats have."

Kristen Soltis Anderson [14:12]:
"Voters will tell you, I always want to hear what you’re for. But sometimes in a midterm, voters are just looking to press on the brakes."

5. Fissures on the Left: The Disillusioned Young Voter

[18:38–22:22]

• Anderson describes “young and disillusioned” voters — progressive but anti-establishment, skeptical of both parties and susceptible to sitting out elections.
• Difficult strategy for Democrats: balancing the political energy of online activists with the concrete needs of young, working-class voters (e.g., authentic economic populism without overreaching into unpopular far-left stances).

Kristen Soltis Anderson [19:30]:
"It's definitely a group that I don't think they are at risk of voting for Republicans, but they are very much at risk of staying home."

Jessica Tarlov [20:52]:
"You kind of run through the litany of things that have hurt the party...to fund the police, for instance, and they're like, well, that's stupid. And I'm like, oh, okay, so why did we go down this path?"

6. Foreign Policy and the Progressive Shift on Israel

[22:22–24:57]

• Foreign policy, including Israel, remains a low priority for swing voters, but is salient for plugged-in young voters exposed to social media content.
• Generational splits mark attitudes toward foreign alliances; younger voters are skeptical of “default” support for Israel, demanding clearer arguments for US involvement.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [23:44]:
“…for younger voters...they are asking leaders to make the case. You cannot just assume that they understand, why does it matter to support Israel?...They are challenging that status quo…”

7. Political Violence, Nihilism, and the "Post-Rational" Era

[24:57–28:50]

• The hosts discuss the increase in online-fueled nihilism, political violence, and the impact of the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
• Polling reveals deep suspicion between partisans: two-thirds of voters want unity but, among conservatives, many view such events as validating hostility from the left.
• Liberals, in turn, are more likely to see political divides as existential.
• Both sides increasingly view politics as zero-sum, undermining hope for constructive engagement.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [25:44]:
"For them, the assassination of Charlie Kirk and the reaction to it...has been a wake up call, slash radicalizing moment for a lot of folks on the right..."

Kristen Soltis Anderson [28:14]:
"It is liberals who are more likely to have that kind of like apocalyptic view of things. So you can see on both sides...these stakes are so high and the other side is so vile and cannot be trusted..."

8. Closing: What Makes You Rage / What to Calm Down About

[29:26–31:06]

• Light-hearted wrap-up: Anderson “rages” about a mediocre University of Florida football team but feels people should "calm down" about polling problems.
• She asserts polling as an industry is far more accurate and reliable post-2020, having corrected past errors.

Kristen Soltis Anderson [30:23]:
"Everybody who looks at a poll and goes, you can't trust polls anymore. They're terrible. Like, just calm down. Actually, a lot of data is very, very, very good these days, and the industry has made a lot of positive progress."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On electoral moderation:

  "There are a lot of Americans that don't take all of column A and all of column B..."
  — Kristen Soltis Anderson [03:36]

• On what makes a primary winner:

  "[AOC] could win ... because she's pretty media savvy and she's good at talking sort of ... populist tone."
  — Kristen Soltis Anderson [06:43]

• On young, disillusioned voters:

  "It's definitely a group that I don't think they are at risk of voting for Republicans, but they are very much at risk of staying home."
  — Kristen Soltis Anderson [19:30]

• On polling skepticism:

  "Everybody who looks at a poll and goes, you can't trust polls anymore. They're terrible. Like, just calm down. Actually, a lot of data is very, very, very good these days..."
  — Kristen Soltis Anderson [30:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:57 – Jessica Tarlov introduces guest Kristen Soltis Anderson
• 01:17–04:04 – The misunderstood political center & polarization data
• 04:04–06:15 – Who actually wins primaries and why
• 07:14–10:17 – Early 2028 predictions: AOC and J.D. Vance
• 10:17–15:33 – Party brands, midterms, “thermostat” voters
• 18:38–22:22 – Young, progressive but disillusioned Democratic voters
• 22:22–24:57 – The shift on Israel and generational differences
• 24:57–28:50 – Political violence, online nihilism, and deepening mistrust
• 29:26–31:06 – What to “rage” about and what to “calm down” about

Tone

The conversation is thoughtful, centrist, data-driven, and pragmatic, with both speakers showing humor, skepticism of party lines, and concern for the state of political discourse. The dialogue carefully foregrounds what “purple” Americans want, the systemic barriers facing moderates, and the dangers in today’s political climate without resorting to partisanship or panic.

This summary encapsulates the major themes, debates, and data-driven analysis from the episode, making it a valuable resource for anyone wanting to understand the centrist perspective on near-future American politics.