What’s Trump’s Endgame in Ukraine?

Summary

Raging Moderates: Episode Summary – "What’s Trump’s Endgame in Ukraine?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
• Host/Authors: Jessica Tarlov and Tim Miller
• Network: Vox Media Podcast Network
• Episode: What’s Trump’s Endgame in Ukraine?
• Release Date: February 18, 2025

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1. Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of Raging Moderates, hosts Jessica Tarlov and Tim Miller delve into the complex interplay between former President Donald Trump's strategies concerning Ukraine and the broader implications for U.S. politics and international relations. Skipping the initial banter and advertisements, the conversation swiftly moves to pivotal geopolitical developments and internal political dynamics.

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2. Trump’s Engagement in Ukraine

The discussion kicks off with Trump's recent actions aimed at brokering a peace deal in Ukraine. Tim Miller highlights Trump's "highly productive call" with Vladimir Putin, emphasizing Trump's portrayal of the call as a step towards a "Ukraine peace deal" (05:00). However, the hosts critically analyze the motivations and outcomes of such engagements.

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller ([07:26]): "Mark Fogel is back. That's great news. But what got missed was the person that got let out on our side was one of the original crypto scammers who was running a massive crypto scam that allowed Russia to, you know, avert sanctions."

Miller underscores the dubious nature of the hostage exchange, pointing out that Trump prioritized releasing an individual involved in significant crypto-related corruption over other potentially more beneficial outcomes for Ukraine.

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3. Implications on U.S.-European Relations

The episode explores the strain Trump's outreach to Russia has placed on U.S. relations with European allies. Jessica Tarlov notes Zelenskyy's skepticism about the U.S. being the "top partner" for Ukraine, reflecting a shift towards European self-reliance in defense matters (13:31).

Notable Quote:

Jessica Tarlov ([15:14]): "When countries like the United States cease to be pillars, there is nothing to hope for."

This sentiment encapsulates concerns about America's diminished role in upholding democratic values globally, potentially leading Europe to assert greater independence from U.S. influence.

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4. Internal U.S. Politics: AP Ban and DOJ Clash

A significant portion of the conversation focuses on the Trump administration's friction with the press and internal DOJ conflicts. The hosts discuss the White House's decision to ban an AP reporter for linguistic choices and the subsequent First Amendment accusations (24:32).

Notable Quote:

Jessica Tarlov ([25:58]): "It feels like the wild West. Yeah."

This reflects frustration over perceived erosion of press freedoms and the administration's authoritarian tendencies in managing information and media relations.

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5. Immigration and Sanctuary Cities

Tarlov and Miller delve into the contentious issue of immigration policies, particularly the administration's stance on sanctuary cities. They debate the balance between humanitarian concerns and the enforcement of immigration laws, highlighting specific cases that illustrate the complexities involved (44:01).

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller ([47:34]): "If you want to be spreading $10 all over the place, go ahead for it. But Amy McGrath is going to be the senator that takes Mitch McConnell's seat."

Miller argues for a strategic approach to immigration reform, suggesting that focusing on humane deportation practices could align better with Democratic values and public opinion.

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6. The Future of Anti-Trump Republicans

A critical discussion revolves around the diminishing presence of Republicans opposing Trump's agenda. The hosts lament the lack of a viable anti-Trump faction within the party, citing examples like Mitch McConnell's limited resistance and the challenges faced by senators like Joni Ernst (55:23).

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller ([57:57]): "There’s no future. There’s no present."

Miller asserts that the Republican Party has fundamentally transformed under Trump's influence, making it difficult for traditional conservatives to maintain their stance against Trump's populist tactics and policy directions.

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7. Conclusion

As the episode wraps up, Tarlov and Miller reflect on the broader implications of Trump's actions on both international relations and domestic political landscapes. They express concern over the long-term effects of these developments, emphasizing the urgent need for a balanced and principled approach to governance and foreign policy.

Final Notable Quote:

Jessica Tarlov ([63:44]): "You're saying that I wasted my dollars on Sarah Gideon? That was who was."

This moment underscores the hosts' commitment to supporting candidates who embody moderate and principled leadership, amidst a political environment increasingly dominated by extreme partisan divides.

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Key Takeaways:

• Trump’s Ukraine Strategy: Critically assessed as prioritizing questionable exchanges over substantive peace negotiations.
• U.S.-Europe Relations: Highlighted the potential shift towards European independence in defense due to weakened U.S. support.
• Press and DOJ Tensions: Emphasized concerns over press freedom and internal DOJ instability under the Trump administration.
• Immigration Policy: Discussed the need for humane and strategic immigration reforms aligned with Democratic values.
• Republican Party Dynamics: Expressed skepticism about the viability of anti-Trump factions within the Republican Party.

This comprehensive discussion provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current geopolitical and domestic political challenges facing the United States, framed through the lens of moderates seeking balanced and effective governance.

Transcript

[Jessica Tarlov]

Have I Got News for you is.

[Tim Miller]

Back for another season. Roy Wood Jr. Amber Ruffin and Michael Ian Black are finding the funny in the week's biggest stories. Have I Got News for you Saturday at 9 on CNN and stream next day on Max. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov.

[Tim Miller]

I'm Tim Miller.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Tim, this is the banter section. How are you?

[Tim Miller]

Hey, Banter. I'm just happy to be in here for Scott. You know, I think that I'm gonna be a downgrade in certain manners and upgrade in hair, you know, we'll see what the people think.

[Jessica Tarlov]

We will see what the people think. I think they'll be excited to see you. They were super excited when you joined us, but we were together, all three of us.

[Tim Miller]

It was fun. It's good. I mean, I'd rather be raging with you guys than maybe. You have a view on this. I think not raging with the dams on the hill. I'm not feeling a ton of raging. Yeah. Snoozing.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Democratic snoozing.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I'd rather be raging with the moderates than snoozing with the Pragues. I mean, this is. Maybe that's unfair.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Heavy for the banter section, but do you. No, no, no, I'm good with it.

[Tim Miller]

You wanna talk about Mardi Gras?

[Jessica Tarlov]

It's difficult times. No, I don't wanna talk about. I mean, if you wanna talk about Mardi Gras hiding in your house, we could do that. But do you really think that they're snoozing or we're not paying attention?

[Tim Miller]

It's a good question. I think that they are doing a. A lot of stuff that people who are. Who read Hill newsletters and who care and who know a lot about what's happening in the federal government, I think they are seeing Democrats. I think that anyone who is a casual observer of politics is seeing only Donald Trump and Elon Musk and Travis and Taylor. I think that's like the material that they're getting. And so I don't know if they're snoozing so much as they're not yelling. And I feel like they could probably benefit from some yelling that resonates outside of.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I think resonant yelling is the trick for that one. Cause I have seen some yelling and I have hated it.

[Tim Miller]

The singing, the singing, singing, yelling. I'm getting the singing in the right kind of context. You know, I'm open to singing and chants, but, you know, maybe we could work on the language of the chants a little bit.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, we're getting lapped by the ymca. So you gotta think about that.

[Tim Miller]

We've given the gays gave away ymca.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Well, you don't even want it back, right?

[Tim Miller]

I know. I made it official. It was a long. It was not a, you know, it was not a battle in the culture war we expected, but it was a battle that was thrust upon us. And I think for a moment during the Biden era, we had felt like we'd taken YMCA back from the Magas. And unfortunately I think that is one l. We just have to take. It's over now. And the Village People and ymca, despite the fact that that is a song about cruising in gay gyms, the Magas have taken it from us and I don't think we're ever going to get it back. It's unfortunate. I don't think you're going to hear a lot of YMCA at Gay Pride this year.

[Jessica Tarlov]

No, probably not.

[Tim Miller]

Abracadabra by Lady Gaga. Instead, I think you'll be hearing a lot of Abracadabra.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It's a pretty good upgrade, I think.

[Tim Miller]

So.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Did you watch any of the SNL50 stuff?

[Tim Miller]

I was in and out. I was watching White Lotus and I was, you know, podcast prepping, so I caught a little bit of it. I really liked a couple of the Eddie Murphy segments. Eddie Murphy being Tracy Morgan was hilarious. Eddie Murphy doing some borderline inappropriate prison rape jokes with Will Ferrell in like one of the very last segments. I also really liked. Those are my big takeaways.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Prison rape is always a highlight. I said multiple times to my husband that I can't believe this show is happening. Like if it weren't the SNL50, there's no way these jokes would have made it in. But I'm pretty sure everybody showed up and they were like, we are not playing by 2025 standards. We're playing by whatever year we were actually on the show. And it was a lot of it was hilarious. But I was overwhelmed by Cher. I don't know if you saw these shots of like Kevin Costner losing his mind in Billy crystal, watching this 78 year old woman look like a 30 year old woman belting out if I could turn back time, which I think the gays still we still have possession of.

[Tim Miller]

I missed that clip, though. So I will immediately be going to the Internet right after this, after this, to watch that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

To the Internet and now to the show. And I'm keeping us on time, which is not Scott's strong suit.

[Tim Miller]

So how'd I do in the banter section?

[Jessica Tarlov]

I think you did great. I don't know. We'll see. Okay. So in today's episode of Raging Moderates, we are discussing Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine. Trump's lifeline to Eric Adams and the state of anti Trump Republicans. Your specialty. All right, let's get into it. Big moves on the world stage. Last week, Trump says he had a highly productive call with Vladimir Putin, claiming that they're now working closely on a Ukraine peace deal. He even floated the idea of a future sit down with Putin. This all came after Russia released American teacher Mark Fogel, which Trump called a, quote, sign of good faith. Meanwhile, Kyiv is on edge after a drone strike hit Chernobyl just days after Zelensky asked the US for more aid. And in Europe, leaders are scrambling. An emergency summit is set for Monday. So that's today. So by tomorrow you may have an update. Amid fears that Trump's outreach to Russia is leaving them isolated, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a once in a generation security moment. Vice President J.D. vance warned that Russia could face economic and military pressure if it does doesn't negotiate in good faith. But in Munich, he took aim at European leaders instead, claiming their real threat isn't Russia or China. It's their own policies on free speech and refusal to work with hard right parties in government. Back at home, not much better. The White House is clashing with the press again, this time banning an AP reporter from the Oval Office for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. The AP is now accusing the administration of violating the First Amendment. Let's talk Ukraine first. What do you think the game is here is, I mean, you can start with Pete Hegseth's maiden voyage, which did not go well and he's walking things back within 24 hours. But what do you think Rubio and Trump and Vance want for Ukraine?

[Tim Miller]

Well, as a, I guess, cradle neocon. I don't know if the neocons exist anymore. I have a ton of thoughts about this. I first just really quick because I think it's got lost and I'm obsessed with the crypto element of everything that's happening. The hostage trade or everyone to call it. Mark Fogel, very happy Fogle's back. That's great news. But what got missed was the person that got let out on our side was, like, one of the original crypto scammers who was running a massive crypto scam that allowed Russia to, you know, avert sanctions, you know, by paying for things, you know, using. Using crypto rather than, you know, cash and going through the regular banking system. I only say that just because I just. Everybody should just, like, make a mental note of that, because I think that the crypto corruption that is coming over the next four years might end up being one of the biggest stories that happen.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Bigger than the Trump coin? It's interesting.

[Tim Miller]

Well, no, it's related. The Trump coin. It's all related. Right? Like, I mean, Trump launches this coin.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I think that that's how people can manage it. Well, they just say, okay, we know he's a grifter who does things like this, but it's so much bigger than that. And the trade wasn't publicized at all. It took days for anyone to know if we got. If we had to trade anything for Mark Fogle.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, for sure. And so, obviously, there are bad people getting traded and all of these things, like, Victor Booth got traded during the Biden administration. So I. And I'm happy Mark Fogel is home. So it's like, less a commentary on, like, the particular trade than just like, it's interesting where the priorities were like, that. The first Russian person out is this crypto scammer person doing the deal. Steve Witkoff, his son is business partners with the Trump kids on their crypto scam. Right. So that's not a coincidence. All right. I'm not the always sunny guy putting yarn against the wall here. It's a pretty direct connection directly to Trump's pocket. So, anyway, the broader deal, I mean, the sad part about this is that just we appear to be on the side of the bad guys. I mean, I think that JD did some tough talk, but what is happening is we have this meeting in Saudi that you referenced. The Ukrainians aren't even invited. Like, we're having a bilateral with the Russians who invaded Ukraine and who we are sanctioning currently to try to cut a deal that Ukraine isn't even at the table for. And Europe is having a separate. The Europeans are having a separate meeting at the same time, as you mentioned, Keir Starmer, like, the UK Is out there saying, we're going to put boots on the ground, if necessary, peacekeeping troops to support Ukraine. And so, like, in this moment, we're getting Some mixed signals from the White House, but directionally, most of the signals are that we are sympathetic to the invaders, to the autocrats, to the people that were attacking a free democratic country. Whatever you thought bad about American foreign policy in the past, this is a massive shift. Like this is not just a bad judgment call. It's the fact that it seems like that we're supporting, you know, the countries that are in conflict with what the American values have been in the post World War II era. So, like, at the top level, like, that is the thing to me, that's the most striking. And when you looked at these press conferences, both Hegseth and Trump can't remember if Vance was asked this, but definitely Hagseth and Trump were asked, you know, as part of these negotiations, what are you asking Russia to give up? And neither of them could answer. Hegseth gives like a two minutes of gobbledygook because, you know, that he couldn't come up with anything. And Trump starts attacking Europe during the answer to that question. And so I just think that kind of tells you all you need to know.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I think there was something about shooting values and that you can't do that. And Pete's answer? I can't really get to calling him Secretary Hickseth yet. I'm still in Pete mode.

[Tim Miller]

Are you in Pete panels? Did you. Because were you guys drinking buddies?

[Jessica Tarlov]

No, not drinking buddies. We have socialized. But no comment. No, I totally agree with you. And one thing that's been sticking out to me is how quickly everybody has folded from who they were beforehand, because at least I was holding onto the idea. I know Mike Waltz really well, the National Security Advisor. We're in a foreign policy group together. Marco Rubio has been very clear about his foreign policy views for a long time. And I don't think any of either of those two would have ever thought that they would be part of a deal that was going to essentially tell Ukraine you have no future in NATO and you're never getting back your territory. I mean, even forgetting the pre2014 lines, even from just a few years ago. And maybe that speaks to the awesome power of Trump, maybe that speaks to the new realignment within the Republican Party. But I don't see anyone in positions of power now that are gonna be holding onto traditional American views of foreign policy and our role in the world.

[Tim Miller]

No, I mean, Rubio has been basically a full throated defender of the Trump push on this. And that pivot for him has been kind of happening gradually over time since 2016. When he was kind of the candidate that was running the most, maybe even more than Cheb the most w like the most Bush compassionate conservatism type platform of any of the candidates. And so no, who knows how things actually go. I guess it's better that Rubio is there in Saudi Arabia than some of the other potential people who could be there from the Trump orbit. Maybe there are things happening on the margins that matter. And like you said, Waltz was a very traditional type of, type of Republican in the House as far as foreign policy is concerned. And I interviewed Tom Malinowski, the Democrat from New Jersey last week who's a pretty kind of hawkish Democrat. And so he was like, when I got to Congress, I was looking to Republicans that I could work with, like where we might have some overlap on foreign policy. And he was like, Waltz and Stefanik were the two people that I turned to. And he's like, they've, you know, he's like, it's just Stefanik has totally, you know, gone native with the maga and he's like, it appears like Waltz is doing the same. So. And we'll see how things shake out this week. But the signs are not positive and it's really a sign of kind of submission to the Trump worldview from all these folks.

[Jessica Tarlov]

What do you think is the likelihood that Zelenskyy gets his way? So he was speaking at the Munich Security Council and he said, we need an armed forces of Europe. This is after JD Vance essentially took a flamethrower to our relationship with Europe in his speech. Clearly Zelenskyy does not see us as the top partner opportunity for him going forward. Do you think Europe is really going to unify without us?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean I wouldn't see us as the top partner opportunity either if I was him. Yeah, no, I, I think Europe will I, I, I be a positive outgrowth of the Trump worldview that Europe ends up stepping up their game on defense and takes more responsibility. I don't want to say they're not taking any responsibility for their own defense, but actually take seriously fact that they might have to go it alone at some point. You've seen this from Europeans. At the Munich Security conference leader NATO said something to this effect, which was pretty Secretary General rather, which is pretty alarming. So I think that that's possibly positive, but like, okay, that has potential massive negative ramifications for us. You know, I mean, I was, let me pull this out. There was a woman who is a journalist in Ukraine whose quote just really kind of Dropped me in my feet over the weekend. She said this. Her name is Anna Murlakina. She was from Mariupol and like had to flee to ky. She said, when you live in a world that is crumbling under your feet, the only thing that helps you survive is to believe in guidelines. In civilized, democratic countries that uphold values. When countries like the United States cease to be pillars, there is nothing to hope for. I mean, that is a jaw dropping quote from somebody over in Ukraine. And I just think that's reflective of how people in Europe are going to see us. And I just believe that there'll be negative ramifications for that down the line. We don't exactly know how or when, but I think that Europe will kind of decide that they, they should be prepared to go it without us going back to.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I guess we, we got into ineffective Democrats very early on in the podcast. But I do maybe just because I work in communication. I guess that I always think that there was an opportunity to do better if we had messaged properly about this. And it doesn't feel like we have made the case. This is Democrats and Republicans, like obviously, you know, Mitch McConnell and the kind of more traditional set have been, you know, screaming from the rooftops at a, at a low pitch. He doesn't scream so loud anymore at 83, but have been trying to talk about the importance of keeping together the democratic world order and that you need to support countries that share our values. And it feels like that has just fallen on completely deaf ears and that people have moved to this world where it's what about me first and can't see the second order effects if we end up abandoning Ukraine. So do you think there's anything we could have done or this storm which is taking over the world. Right. Was there any way to stop this?

[Tim Miller]

On this one, I'll let you make fun of the Democrats communications and I'll take responsibility for my people. Because you do you, I think possibly no, because of Iraq. Honestly, I do think that it was just such a debacle that within the country there has just become an increased skepticism or hostility to the idea that we should be involved overseas in foreign conflicts. And I think it's very complicated to then say, okay, well this is not Iraq. Right. Like Ukraine is different. Like we don't have troops on the ground. We're not trying to do regime change, we're trying to defend an ally. And that helps us because, you know, if Russia successfully overtakes Ukraine, that's going to demonstrate weakness, you know, to the, you Know, rules based order. And that could cause threats to us down the line. Right. Like, it's just, just, it's a complicated point to make. Right. Especially in the face of really pretty bipartisan, increasingly opposition to us playing this role in the world. And so to me, the obligation is then this is what Trump has unraveled, is that there were a number of things that are not really popular among the whole country that leaders in both parties continued to do, such as usaid, because it was the right thing to do and because they were responsible leaders. Right. And sometimes that is required. This is not ancient Greece. We don't have a direct democracy on purpose. Not everything should be decided based on 50% plus one vote. If that is true, I would have never gotten married. That was an opposed vote until the Supreme Court did it eventually. Sometimes leaders have to do things that are unpopular because they're the right thing to do. Maybe sometimes they get held accountable for that. Trump, because he doesn't care about any of that, doesn't have really core values or empathy or care about the American idea, doesn't believe that exists, only believes their American interests, has wiped away all of that. And so I don't know that the Democrats could have, just by making their messaging better, changed people's view of this or broadly America's role when it comes to aid. So, I mean, I think that you could probably give a few of them some lessons on how to make those arguments better, having watched you on the Five and having watched some of them. But I don't know that it would have actually made the difference in this case.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It's just such a big failure when you think about how Core Biden made it to his reason for being. Right. I mean, part of it was, I have to get you all through Covid and I can be America's grandpa, and I'm the most empathetic man you ever met. But it was also like this return to normalcy. And, you know, people's lived experience was just so not commensurate with the world that he was talking about that they were just like, f you right, I'm out.

[Tim Miller]

It was a failure. And I don't. And I mean, obviously Biden's inability to deliver a message had ramifications. Like what? You know, in this case, was it, you know, was that the key difference? I don't know. But I mean, I think it was a problem across multiple verticals and it relates to the Democratic stuff. Now. It just, he was not. He was absent. Right. And there was a moment in 2020 where I think people were so fucking sick of the news. And Trump and Covid, like, the idea that Biden wouldn't be in their lives every day was kind of. People were like, that's a good thing. There were at least some people out there that. That wasn't attractive. But, like, over time, as crises unfolded, as inflation happened, as the invasion of Ukraine happened, as 10, 7 happened, you know, people need somebody, the kin talk to them, right? And to deliver a compelling message and that can, you know, demonstrate leadership traits or demonstrate strength at least. And I think that that was, like, kind of missing from the last couple years of the last administration.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I would even say that the quality of the messaging wouldn't have mattered as much if it was happening as more frequently. That people actually just want to physically see you and then their minds run wild. And obviously there are people who are feeding this that are like, oh, he's not here because he's dead, but he'll be awake at 2 o'clock and then he's gonna die again.

[Tim Miller]

I totally agree with that. I never compliment Trump, so just say what you want. But, like, guy has been every. Like, there was this thing on the left in, like, resistance world, like, during the campaign that was like, Trump is just as old as Biden and Trump's, you know, brain is pudding too. And like, the media, it's so unfair that the media is making the Biden age thing, like, the only thing. And it's like I kept saying, I don't think that is true. Like, Trump gives off crazy energy, not old energy, like he just does. And since he' been in there, I didn't know. I thought it was an unknown. Might Trump win and just be so happy that he's not in jail, that he's just gonna golf and go on the NASCAR track, which he did, and do the fun stuff and the accoutrement of the presidency and not do everything else. And that's been the opposite. He's given more press conferences than anybody dude is. I lose track of all the press conferences he's done. I missed one on Friday. He's talking to media all the time. And that is how to do it in the modern media age. And I think that that is something that those of us who oppose him could learn from.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yes, be everywhere, all the time, even if they don't like you in their feed. I have this conversation constantly with people. I'm like, oh, but the engagement is so mean. And they're like, but it's engagement. That's what Trump understands. All the hate comments, they're still thinking about you. You're still living. What did they say, like, rent free in your head. I want to talk to you about the ap, but just really quickly, did you. I shouldn't say, did you make anything, because it obviously is a big deal about the State Department taking down the statement that they. That we do not support Taiwanese independence. And, like, that feels like it's flying in the face of the way that we're moving with Russia, because obviously, that's China's red line. That feels like signature Rubio to me. Who's such a big China hawk. Do you think anything's gonna come of this?

[Tim Miller]

Or maybe I'm wrong about this, but I kind of just see Taiwan going the same path as Ukraine, right. Where there is some resistance inside the administration that, like, wants, you know, wants us to be stronger in that case, and that there's some resistance among Republicans on the Hill. Resistance may the right word, but some views among Republicans on the Hill and in the administration that are more hawkish on Taiwan than Trump's itself. But Trump was asked about Taiwan at one of his hundred press conferences. We were just talking about recently, and he goes on a rant about how they've been stealing our job and how jobs for the chips need to be coming back to America. And if you just looked at the tone of his comments, it didn't sound like the tone of somebody that's ready to put American defense power on the line to protect Taiwan. And I just don't see how a Trump Vance administration, who has just laid the groundwork with their followers, that they only care about us first. They only care about American interests first. We shouldn't care about what's happening on the other side of the globe. Globe. If a conflagration happened with China and Taiwan, I just don't know how they can go to their supporters and be like, oh, yeah, actually, we need to put in a couple hundred billion here, or, God forbid, troops or ships or whatever. I don't see it. Marco might be trying to fool himself into thinking that Trump sees China differently because it's a bigger threat. But I think that if push came to shove, we'd see pretty much the same thing we see from him on Ukraine.

[Jessica Tarlov]

All right, so we've got a rogue Rubio moment.

[Tim Miller]

That's how I see it. And I think Trump likes that actually, too. By the way, I will say this. I think Trump doesn't mind if people are confused, you know, like he is.

[Jessica Tarlov]

He benefits from us being confused.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Right. And so I think it's. I don't think that, like, he's, like, mad at Marco over this. I think that he's like, well, you know, we'll keep them on their toes. Like, that's part of Trump's mindset. And so my point is just like, if push comes to shove, I don't. If I'm xi, I'm like, these guys aren't gonna go to battle for Taiwan. That would be the bet I'd be making.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. Like, let them put whatever they want on their silly website about cooperation with Taiwan. Okay, moving on to something else sad. I want to talk about the AP getting banned. So they were kicked out of the press briefings, and then they weren't allowed. A photographer and a reporter weren't allowed on the presidential plane. And there was a big. I shouldn't. It feels so lame to say there was a big explainer because it wasn't even like a real piece of journalism. But I got a nifty newsletter from Axios talking about the kind of history of this administration's objections to the AP. And basically they're mad that the AP's style book has used terms that they hate too liberally, like gender, dei, inclusivity, et cetera. I'm old enough to remember when the other news stations stood with Fox News, when the Obama administration wasn't going to let them in to do a pool briefing with a representative from the administration. And basically, abc, NBC, cbs, they all said, if Fox can't do it, then we're not doing it. And then they let them in begrudgingly. But it doesn't feel like that moment is happening at all. Like, everyone is bemoaning the fact that the AP is being excluded, but no one is doing anything about it. And I mean, this feels like a, pretty obvious. We, A, don't know what the First Amendment means, and B, we don't care, and we're running this like the wild West. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, the asymmetry is just so obvious. It's almost like, you know. No, it's like dog bites man to even mention it. But, like. Yeah, I mean, look, so in part, I actually would be defensive of the other mainstream outlets, like, because I think that if ABC and NBC and CBS said we're going to boycott in solidarity with ap, I think I feel like the Trump administration would be like, okay, peace, you know? Yeah. So it's kind of like the conservative outlets need to do it and they're not going to. So I don't, you know, I Mean, that's like the situation. And I think everybody should just be aware of like what time it is and what's happening out there. As far as the more interesting part of this, and obviously there's the First Amendment thread here, but to me is how all in these guys are going on like, you know, patriot, what I call patriotic correctness. Like, you know, it's not just enough to stop doing, you know, pro DEI activities. They, they need to snuff out anybody that is using words or language that, that they don't like. And to a preposterous extent, the idea that everybody has to use the new name of the Gulf that they just changed one minute ago or else they're going to be banned is ridiculous. And in some ways it's ridiculous as some of the most extreme things that you see on the far left on PC, demanding that people use Latinx or whatever. And so I do wonder if it's going to backfire on them eventually. I don't. Are people really for this? It feels very mockable. So obviously it's serious. But I do think they are very much being responsive to something that only a tiny group of far right trolls who are super online actually care about. And I don't know if that's a path to long term success for the right.

[Jessica Tarlov]

No, they definitely just want to get in as many kind of gloating laps early on. I think that they know that it just gets more and more complicated and certainly as we head into special elections and the midterms and things like that, which hopefully Democrats will perform better than we did.

[Tim Miller]

That's interesting. So you do think that's conscious that like they're like, hey, you know, this isn't going to last forever, this like gloating honeymoon. And so we want to like rub their face in shit for as long as possible, like, and like there's like a little bit of that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I think they can look to past administrations and say, okay, you know, your first, first two years are when you can actually get things done right. They have control of everything. They're definitely trying it on right. To the largest extent possible. You know, let's ram through four and a half trillion in tax cuts, like let's try to cut all of these entitlement programs. Now they realize that they're not going to get their wish list of all of it, but they are at a moment where they're owning the culture. And so I feel like they're just taking advantage and saying, okay, well if we have ingratiated ourselves to A segment of the American population that wouldn't have given us their time at all four, eight years ago. Let's really go for it. And you can tell that also in the attitude that Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, has about everything. I mean, she's so haughty and arrogant in the way that she delivers everything, which I. Listen, I wish that I had more of that in me. I wish I didn't have such a terrible case of imposter syndromes. But, like, to be 27 years old and to walk up there with that, you know, it's a fact. Big swinging gulf of energy, right?

[Tim Miller]

This is a fact, right?

[Jessica Tarlov]

Or like, like, every man in Gaza is wearing a condom that we paid for. Well, actually, no, no, that's not true. In Mozambique, there are some condoms that got sent, you know, and it's. It's the Trump bravado that if you say it a certain way, there's at least a good amount of people that are going to believe you. And I think that they're living for the moment. Right. It's like a YOLO administration at this point. And until there are real consequences, I think they're gonna go for it with everything. I mean, the APA is calling Mount Denali, Mount McKinley right now. I mean, they're doing half of the crazy thing.

[Tim Miller]

I wonder, is that true? Like, your comment about how they're owning the culture now. I can't figure this out. Like, is that actually true, or does it just kind of feel like it's true? And maybe that's a distinction without a.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Would I be able to.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, maybe that's a distinction without a difference. Right. But I don't. I'm kind of like. Like, is it just political obsessives who feel this way? I mean, did people's lives really just change? Like, did they change, like, their mindset on this sort of stuff, like, overnight? I don't know.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Well, they're owning infrequent voters.

[Tim Miller]

That's true.

[Jessica Tarlov]

That are 18 to 40. Right? That and those are real culture vultures. Those are people that are listening to podcasts. Those are people who are concerned about all of the dyes in our food. Those are people who are picking schools for their kids and are disenchanted with the public school system and wanting to get away from feeling like they have to use gender pronouns on their email signatures. I mean, these are real things that folks are thinking about. And so I don't know if owning the culture is the right way to put it, because I still don't think that Kid Rock is cooler than Jay Z. That will just never happen.

[Tim Miller]

But you can tell when you watch those references. That's good.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I know I can't, I can't fight the 40 and I'm 41 in a couple of weeks. No, but Kid Rock was on Bill Maher on Friday night and I found the interview really interesting. I mean it was. First of all, I had forgotten, I guess that he played Obama's inauguration in 08 and he was like, it's not as if I liked Obama. Then you just show up and you do this. But he was essentially mocking us for like liberal leaning people. And you new, new to this side of the fence, but for freaking out about everything all the time. And I, I do think that they are owning the culture by making it clear that majority of people feel like it's just not that serious. And part of that is a mistake on Democrats, part by not making it feel like it's that serious in practical ways. Not like the sky is actually gonna fall, but like this is the way that your checkbook is going to be affected. This is the way your kid is going to be affected. But like people are walking around just saying, I don't think politics is that serious. And the Republican side seems like that right now.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, that goes against my entire. Everything in my body wants to reject that because I'm like, things are serious, things matter, actually. But it makes me curious about the Fetterman kind of model because that's kind of what he's doing, basically, which is mocking progressives who are hyperventilating while just basically voting with the Democrats all the time. And I don't think that every Democrat should act like that. But I do wonder if there is some potential efficacy to having a couple of Democrats out there who have more of a slacker energy to try to break through.

[Jessica Tarlov]

All right, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

[Tim Miller]

This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. During tax season, your personal info travels to a lot of places. Between payroll, your tax consultant and the IRS. If your W2 gets exposed, that's just the ticket for identity thieves. That's why Lifelock monitors millions of data points every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Don't let identity thieves take you for a ride. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply. The Republicans have been saying lots of things. Just yesterday, their leader said he wants to own Gaza. The US Will take over the Gaza Strip. And we will do a job with it, too. We'll own it. On Monday, the Secretary of State said an entire federal agency was insubordinate. USAID in particular.

[Jessica Tarlov]

They refused to tell us anything.

[Tim Miller]

We won't tell you what the money's.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Going to, where the money's for, who has it.

[Tim Miller]

Over the weekend, Vice President Elon Musk, the richest man on earth, tweeted about the same agency that, you know, gives money to the poorest people on earth.

[Jessica Tarlov]

We spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper.

[Tim Miller]

Could gone to some great parties, did that instead. But what have the Democrats been saying? People are aroused. I haven't seen people so aroused in.

[Jessica Tarlov]

A very, very long time.

[Tim Miller]

Huh. That's a weird way to put it. Senator, we're going to ask what exactly is the Democrats strategy to push back on Republicans on Today explained? This week on Prof. G Markets, we speak with Alice Hahn, China economist and director at Greenmantle. We discuss the potential impact of tariffs on China's economy, how Tesla is faring against byd, and how a Trump presidency could shape China's foreign and domestic policies.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Trump is the biggest dove in a house full of hawks. Everyone else around him wants to push him towards being more hawkish in China on trade, on tech, on military. And I sense that, you know, whether it's Rubio or Hegseth or Waltz, they're going to try to push the agenda of being tougher in China and having more deterrence vis a vis Taiwan.

[Tim Miller]

You can find that conversation exclusively on the Prof. G Markets podcast.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome back. Mayor Eric Adams just got a legal lifeline, but it came from the most controversial figure in New York politics, Donald Trump. The Trump administration's Justice Department dropped Adams's corruption case, but in a city where Trump remains deeply unpopular, that reprieve could be more of a political liability than a win. Now Adams is facing accusations of being in Trump's pocket, especially after appearing alongside Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, and making moves that align with the president's immigration policies. Meanwhile, the case's dismissal has sparked a crisis inside Trump's doj. A mass resignation of prosecutors, including one who accused DOJ leaders of looking for a, quote, fool to take the fall. Have you been following this? Probably not as closely as me.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe not as closely as you, but I have been following it.

[Jessica Tarlov]

You're into it.

[Tim Miller]

Here's why I'm into it. Hagan Scott, who you. Who's the guy you mentioned who said that? I expect you'll eventually find Someone who's enough of a fool or a coward to file your motion. This guy is like Special Forces dude who.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Three bronze stars, I think two, maybe two.

[Tim Miller]

Whatever. I'll give him a third for this if he only has two. But who clerked for. So I believe he was Kavanaugh and Roberts. And then Danielle Sassoon, who's the original person who wrote the letter to Emil Bove. She was Scalia. A. Scalia, Clark. Both. I mean, Scott, in his letter kind of subtly implies that he likes Trump. I forget exactly how he put it, but he was like. I could kind of see the perspective. He's like, some people might be quitting because they're really upset with this administration. Like, that's not me. And I kind of see how a businessman could think this was a good deal. It's just not legal. Like that tldr summary of his letter. And so the fact that it's these two people who are fed side folks who are stepping out, that's Federalist Society.

[Jessica Tarlov]

For maybe raging moderates. Audiences are not as in it as the Bulwark, who are like, fed sock. Yeah, fed sock.

[Tim Miller]

So they're like conservative legal folks who are just saying no, who are standing up and saying, I'm not gonna go along with this. And I think that's pretty powerful. And it comes at a time when, I don't know, at least maybe just me or maybe just Bulwark people are thirsting for people to be showing a little bit more backbone right now. And so that's kind of why I've been following it. Less on, like, the legal nerd side, but just more on. This is kind of how you do it as far as standing up to illiberal actions.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I mean, I. I was into it. I had been feeling starved, I guess, for some old school intellectual resistance. I guess not People out there with a sign, you know, like, hands off my whatever. But I'm okay with those signs, too.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, sure.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, I like them. But they're not getting us really anywhere at this point. But it feels like what they're doing is because it's a harbinger of bad things to come. So the Adams case itself, or at least what we know about it, you would expect more, I guess, in the indictment, he definitely broke the law. And I thought that Sassoon's letter was, you know, very specific about that. And that does matter to people that are career prosecutors who take the law very seriously. But to me, I felt a little bit of a. If you think that we're Just gonna roll over for all of this. This from like the lighter fare of this, which obviously has very real implications for New York City politics and national politics even, but that they're scared of what this administration is going to be asking them to do. Like, Pam Bondi will see us all as folks that are ready to just line up and rubber stamp whatever is to come. And they can't help the fact, even though Bondi was one of the lesser controversial nominees, which just speaks to how crazy the set of nominees were. But, you know, Pam Bondi was all in on. On the 2020 election was rigged out there, front and center on that. And to me, it felt like a little bit of a cry for help or at least a signal of like, we can't be there for whatever they are going to try because they've spent so much time bemoaning, quote, unquote, lawfare. And it is very clear that they are looking to weaponize everything back for their own benefit.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, and we also had a US Attorney down here and in Louisiana who quit. I think that there are a lot of those warning sense happening. And this guy, the character that I've been watching closely in this thing is this. I kind of hate saying his name. Emil Bove. Kind of want to call him like, Emil Bove. I don't know. It's kind of a pretentious name for one. For a maga. But anyway, Bove was the person who, in the Sassoon letter, I think the most powerful thing was like, in the first footnote where she was like, someone was taking notes in the meeting where they told us that they were gonna, you know, about the deal on the prosecution. And he collected the notes at the end of the meeting, which is like no note taking, which feels very fascistic, though, also kind of dumb. And I guess a lot of times fascism is dumb. It's like, okay, well, the notes are gone, but I prefer it when it's.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Dumb because at least we can talk about it. That he took away the notes.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, but he's the same guy who is at the center of the FBI firings. Right. And there was that whistleblower. And if you saw that over the weekend where they were saying that Cash Patel lied during his confirmation hearing, because the note taking in that meeting, the FBI meeting, said that Bove had said that Cash Patel had. And Stephen Miller were the ones that were asking for this. So they have this kind of henchman in at the doj. And so I think that it is pretty. It is good that you know, because there's always this debate, right? Like, should people like this stay? Would we rather have Hagen Scott and in there than whoever replaces him? And I think that in my view, it's actually better for these folks to, you know, kick up a cloud of dust here and, like, draw attention to this person so people can watch it. So it's not, like, happening, you know, behind the scenes in cloak and dagger.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. So you do need good people to stay. I said a couple weeks ago that it's going to require thousands of Mike Pences to make it through whatever is to come over the course of the next four years. So I agree with you. And I think it also matters that this is happening so early on. I can't believe we're only in the beginning of the fourth week of this, but we are going to need people who are interested in the rule of law in a traditional sense, not in the rule of law, just because I said so in Napoleonic slash Trump terms, to reference his weekend tweeting, which did not feel like him at all. I don't know. That felt more musk.

[Tim Miller]

Here's the thing that made me think it might be him. I was reading an article and that quote is actually from a movie called Waterloo that's not from Napoleon. And it's like, it's accredited, I guess it's like maybe apocryphal, but the direct quote is from Waterloo, the movie. The movie was in 1982. 1970. And that, to me, feels like it could be a Trump cultural reference. He might have watched a 1970s movie about Napoleon. That feels like the thing he might have watched, but maybe not. I don't know. That was the only. Because I agreed with you initially, it did feel musk. Yeah.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Or somebody. Or Stephen Miller, someone got control of the phone for a second. I don't wanna belabor that Adam stuff that much, but part of the deal that I guess he's made, which he claims he hasn't made a deal with the administration, but it's quite obvious since he had to sit on the Fox and Friends couch and be humiliated by Tom Homan a couple days ago, but is that they'll be easing or he's going to try to ease sanctuary city laws as it applies to Rikers. And the way that sanctuary city policy works in New York is that ICE can't be near the prisons. And the reason. Reason that that's the case is not necessarily that we don't want criminals to be deported, but it's because they could pick up people who haven't actually been convicted yet. People who have just been charged and not gone through their due process, which they're entitled to. Do you have any views, kind of thinking about the macro issue that I think liberals are finding themselves in as having been way too lax about illegal migration and even too lax on people who are here illegally and committing violent crimes, on how we should be approaching sanctuary policy.

[Tim Miller]

So my viewpoint, which is, I think, different from some of. From kind of the conventional wisdom among Democratic strategists is that, like, maybe In February of 2025, like, the right thing to do is to fight these guys tooth and nail and to figure out what happened and figure out how things shake out. And in 2026, summer, you can decide to be strategic and figure out which issues are the right ones for the electorate. We don't fucking know what's going to happen over the next year, so just fight him and try to make him fail. My exception to that is on some of these, there are a couple of policies with just. The Democrats obviously got out way too far to the left away from public opinion. And I do think sanctuary cities is one of them. So I was the compassionate conservative Bush Republican. I'm about as liberal on immigration as you can get. I was part of the group of Republicans that the Republican voters wanted to overthrow and the McCain view of the world on immigration. So I am extremely sympathetic to immigrants and the plight of immigrants who are fleeing oppression or fleeing whatever and want to come to America. That's what America is about. Like, that said, like, some of the sanctuary, you know, like some of the sanctuary city stuff, it just got overboard. It was just kind of crazy. Like, and I understand there might be, like, a specific reason why it makes sense to not have ICE in the prisons, but I just think that, like, fighting over whether prisoner, illegal migrants who committed crimes in this country should be deported is, like, maybe one of the fights. I would say. I think you can take a pass on this one issue with Democrats. So that would be. That's my view on that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, it's definitely the way that a lot of Democrats feel. You already reference John Fetterman, where you'd be like, why are you wasting my time with this? Right? This is. You're in a privileged position that you got to be here illegally in the first place. And you can just see the next iteration of the Charlemagne ad about giving transgender surgeries for undocumented people in prison being written about something like this. It doesn't change the fact that the city council has to be the ones to revise sanctuary city laws. But I tend to agree with you that kicking up a massive fuss about it probably just allows Trump and co to continue to say that we're so out of step with where culture is.

[Tim Miller]

Here's the other thing. Thing they are going to overstep on immigration. So here's the area where I would say Democrats do not like, don't need to be over cautious. People do not want dreamers to be deported. Right. Like people don't want that. People don't want people who are in this country whose parents brought them to this country when they were kids to be deported or to be separated from their families. And there are already a couple of examples of very sympathetic individuals who are being either detained by ice. There's a guy in Newark who is a veteran who is like detained by ice. And so I think that there are going to be ways to fight immigration from a humanitarian standpoint that are beneficial for Democrats and they should choose those fights rather than fighting over whether prison deportations happen or not under the administration.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. That leads me to something I've been thinking about in general, about where Democrats show up and stand up and amplifying stories like that on a local level versus in D.C. i mean D.C. unless, you know, unless you represent Virginia or Maryland, like I don't think any of this should be going on in D.C. i think you need to be back with your people and talking about stories like that. There was another one in Milwaukee which I talked about on the Five and rarely do my colleagues just shut up. But they were like, oh my God, that happened where they took in a toddler, a mom and a grandmother for speaking Spanish and someone had to come with birth certificates, they were Puerto Rican to get them out of the detention center. And the idea of a two year old in a detention center for allegedly, you know, where we're going to be holding people that have committed violent crimes and were here illegally when they're Americans and did nothing but speak another language at seem to hit the audience hard.

[Tim Miller]

So yeah, and this is to me, and so this is why I would say local is fine, but what you're doing is I think probably the most useful like on Fox and on conservative media platforms and on culturally conservative platforms. Again, like people have this totally wrong view of what like the manosphere podcasters think about all this stuff like Bernie Bros. Yeah. Like you give specific examples like the ones you're giving like they're 80% issues. Like people do not want most people besides racists and extreme far right freaks do not want people detained for speaking Spanish in this country. That is not something that is popular, actually. And so if you can focus on a couple of those examples and bring them in to the lion's den, I think that is a much more useful way to spend time than having a press conference on the Hill. I know Jared Moskowitz, I saw was on Fox over the weekend. I just think that, like, more is more on this, on this stuff.

[Jessica Tarlov]

I obviously agree with you. And it's always great when I see others showing up, not even necessarily to get the clickbait. That worked in 2016. You know, how everything was just about owning the other side and there were those huge fights. Now it's like showing up and being reasonable makes even more of a difference because people's partisan lines have been completely scrambled. Right. You can't predict it anymore in the same way. And so if you show up like Jared Moskowitz did and you sound reasonable about immigration, you know, he was one of the first ones to say, let me in the Doge caucus, for instance. But then you hold the line about stuff that really matters and it gets amplified like that because he was on, you know, on primetime, they love it. They're going to get the clip out into their ether. We'll get their clip out into our ether. And suddenly, you know, Jared Moskowitz is president.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, well, yo, it's to God's ears. But yeah. The prime example of this that I saw recently was Zelensky did the Lex Friedman interview. Lex Friedman. And like, if you just look at the comments on Lex Friedman's YouTube, which is like, he is, he's like mag in the musk way, right? Like, he is like contrarian or whatever. He's not like a far right. He's not like a social conservative. You know what I mean? Like, he's like a contrarian. So he's in that sort of ecosystem. And so that is a mostly anti Ukraine ecosystem. Zelensky does the interview and like, there were a lot of people in the comments that were just kind of like, huh, like, oh, I was expecting to hate him a lot more. Or he made a couple points, you know, like, so anyway, it's worth doing that.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Or even people with that interview in particular who are big Lex Friedman people, but thought like he went too far in pushing him to say that Russia should get to keep territory that they obviously illegally took. I thought that was, even if it was just for that sound bite, that it was worth the three hours of Zelensky's time to do It I want to get to kind of the future of the anti Trump Republican faction. But quickly, are you pro Cuomo? Anti Cuomo? Because he. Did you see the ad he released, the Valentine's Day ad, where he's with all of these older women, mostly women of color, talking about how tough it is right now for New Yorkers, but we can always find a way forward. And that the opposite of hate, the four letter word that matters most is love.

[Tim Miller]

I think it was the phraseology, I'm anti Cuomo. I think that he handled Covid atrociously. In addition to just all of his personal misdeeds. I maybe have some personal bias. I've got some friends who are in. Who are in conflict with Andrew Cuomo, let's just say. And so I think he's kind of a creep. I will say, though, like, Democrats need more people that like, who are like Cuomo, who talk normal and he talks Italian, but, like, you can tell he's being authentically himself. He doesn't talk like a fucking valedictorian kid that's trying to appease the bosses in a PowerPoint presentation. And I think that Democrats could learn from that. And I'm no fan of his in particular, but I think that that is people want it. And I wouldn't be surprised if he's successful in the mayor's race.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah, it's pretty crazy to think about, but the amount of normie Democrats that I know who. Who don't like Cuomo for a whole host of reasons, whether it's, you know, the sexual harassment charges or even the management of COVID and lost people in nursing homes, and just really wanted an apology for him that he couldn't get out there, just couldn't muster the strength to say, I would've done things a little bit differently, which I think would have gone a tremendously long way. They're like, I could use a confident gangster, right? Like, the city is in shitty trouble at this point. I hate being on the subway. And he feels like when you look at Adams on the other side of this, and you think, I'm not going to go for someone as progressive as, like, Scott Stringer, that he might be the answer. Woof. All right, one more break.

[Tim Miller]

Which is depressing.

[Jessica Tarlov]

It is a little depressing. But one more quick break. Stay with us.

[Tim Miller]

All right, so here's the deal. Take a former world number one, that's me, Andy Roddick. Add in the journalist who knows everything about tennis and a producer who's still figuring out how to spell tennis. He gets served with Andy Roddick, a weekly podcast where we break down the game we all love. We cover the biggest stories, talk to the sport's biggest stars and highlight the people changing tennis in ways you might not even realize. Whether it's Grand Slam predictions, coaching changes, off court drama, or the move shaping the future of the sport, we've got it all. This podcast is about having fun, sharing insights and giving fans a real look at what makes tennis so great. Catch serve with Andy Roddick on Spotify, Apple podcasts, wherever you listen or watch us on YouTube, like subscribe, follow all that good stuff. Let's get started.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Welcome back. Before we wrap and we've already been touching on this a little bit, but I want to get into it more deeply with you. There aren't that many Republicans openly pushing back against Trump's agenda these days. Mitch McConnell, for instance, was the lone Republican to vote against, confirming Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. And Tim, you pointed out on the bulwark that even the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, usually pretty Trump friendly, finally took a shot at his economic policies. What do you think is the future for the anti Trump Repub in a party that seems like they've given up a bit besides an editorial or two?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, there's no future. Yeah, there's no future. There's no present. I felt, look, I felt this way for a while. I'll give you a little scoop. I don't know if this is a scoop. Anybody cares about me would care about this. Nobody else would. But I was planning on writing a book that was about that was the shorthand pitch for it was Trump is Forever that I just felt like the magic maga that the Republican voters want Trump or something like it. Right. Like whatever comes after Trump, if he ever goes away, will obviously not be a carbon copy of him because he has a lot of unique traits and eccentricities. And you've seen how hard it is to copy him at the local level and how that has failed in a lot of ways with Carrie Lake and others. But directionally, the idea of America first, of fighting these culture war battles, of not caring about norms and institutions and not caring about the traditional free markets and free people ethos of the 80s and 90s and 2000s Republicans. All of that is gone and was already gonna be gone even if Kamala Harris had won. Because that's just what parties are. Just parties are not actually, actually permanent, coherent ideological groups. They are a reflection of a group of people. And that group of people can change over time and it might change the nature of the party. And Trump has massively changed the makeup of the Republican Party. And as a result, it will be in his image for at least until the next realignment, for probably a quarter century or something. So I just think that is what's happening. I think that there'll be individual fights on the. On the outskirts. You mentioned this Wall Street Journal article, which was an attack on him over tariffs and pushing for lower interest rates given threats for inflation. If we get into a more normal future in 2028 where Trump doesn't try to run again and there's a primary, there will be some people who are Trumpy or pro tariff, and there'll be some people who are more traditional free market conservative on trade. And on some of those issues, it won't always fall on the Trump side of the line. I think that there will still be little skirmishes in the ideological coalition, but directionally, things are to Trump and people. Nobody is going to stand up to him except for people like Mitch McConnell who are already one foot out the door. And that's basically what we've seen for a decade now.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Do you have any idea about what happened during these confirmations to people like Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Todd Young in Indiana, or I should say from Indiana, who was really anti Tulsi, for instance? I mean, is it straight, like doxing, threatening you with a primary? Like Bill Cassidy already voted to convict him. So I don't. This idea that he promised Cassidy to essentially RFK Jr to not be who he is. Right. And to say, you can be my dad and you can check in on me every day and make sure that I'm not gonna do these things when even the CDC site already has information about the flu down. So obviously that's not gonna hold up. Like, what level of threatening or trolling was going on to make people like this lay down and vote for every single one of these nominees.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And the Joni Ernst thing with Hagseth was the. Was really, I think, the test case. Yeah. For this. I mean, I was in Iowa, so I worked in Iowa on a couple campaigns. I was in Iowa, like, during when all this was happening. It was like, about. And I was like, at an event with a lot of Republicans and it was like in between when she had spoken out and when she had kind of folded. Right. And to a person, I could not find a person at this event that thought she was going to hold the line eventually. And there were some very pro Joany people there. Right. And People who like her and wish she would have held the line across the board. Maga to people who are like me, who are lapsed. Everybody thought, no, because the voters wanted. Want Trump to get what he wants. That's what they want. And so she was just getting totally bullied online phone calls. And I think the other senators really saw that. I think, in addition to that, I do think in these private meetings, Trump and then basically said to the nominees, just tell these people whatever they want to hear. Who cares? We'll figure it out on the back end. Right again, because these are not rigid ideologues. That is not what Trump is. So I think that helped give a rationale to some of these senators to do the easy thing. And I also just. Jesse, I just fundamentally don't think anybody was going to actually stand up besides McConnell, who's one step out the door. And Murkowski and Collins will choose their spots because they have kind of a different sort of brand. Everybody else. I was with Gary Gates at a tpusa. I go to the TPUSA annual gathering every year to just kind of. Well, you live in Fox World. I don't. I want to make sure I'm not in my little bubble, my little resistance, you know, form feels like a very.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Nice place to test it out.

[Tim Miller]

It's fine. No, no, no, no, it's fine. The types of people that go to those sorts of things are the people you got to worry about are the people who are alone in their basement getting radicalized, honestly, like people that show up to a gathering. At least I've found them to be relatively sociable. I had a few people shit talk me, but I never felt unsafe.

[Jessica Tarlov]

They're not bad to your face, ever. I've always found everyone is like, I feel so terrible that I've been calling you the C word online for three years. And I'm like, well, stop doing that. And I'm so nice. Do you want a picture?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right. That's hilarious. So anyway, I was with Gates and I was like, why'd you drop? I was like, because I think that you were going to get through. And Gates was like, well, John Curtis, the guy from Utah who replaced Mitt, told me, and it wasn't an interview, so I was. I forget the exact line, but it was something like, I would sacrifice my children before I would confirm you. It was some very ostentatious comment about. And so Gates was like, I didn't think it was clear I was going to get through. And I said to him, I was like eh, Curtis would have folded. And I really think I'm right about that. I do think that there's a lot of behind the scenes people trying to use the little influence they can without creating any backlash. But when push comes to shove, like the voters are where their voters are. And so like that is why you're not seeing anybody like the Todd Youngs of the world actually stand up.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. Unpopular opinion. But I don't think that you have to do everything that the voters want. Like they picked a person who can also think for themselves, who broadly represents their interests. Right. And understands their constituency, but can think for themselves. So if you pick, you know, one of 15 people that you don't think is unqualified for to kind of lay down your marker in the sand and say your children will be vaccinated or we will not have someone who thinks Assad wasn't really that bad, that that might be good for you long term. But I'm also not running for public office.

[Tim Miller]

I say that to Republicans I talk to all the time and fewer and fewer of them actually want to talk to me. So, you know, maybe that's part of my why my influence isn't working. But I'm like, you don't have to be me. I'm not asking Republican senators or congressmen to troll Trump online to try to own him, to fight everything. There's a huge space between me and total submission. And it's just like they've kind of decided to abandon that whole space. There's just nobody that has decided to try to occupy that and succeed. And I think that's wrong. I think people could. I mean Collins I guess is the example. As the example. I don't really love Susan Collins or everything that she's done, but she did manage to occupy that space in between Total never Trumper and total Trump sycophant. And it worked for her. She was like the only senator. Well, this cycle couple happened, but before, during the first Trump, she was the only senator that won and went the opposite way as the state in 2016 and 2020.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Yeah. You're saying that I wasted my dollars on Sarah Gideon?

[Tim Miller]

No, I think that was who was.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Gonna win by 10.

[Tim Miller]

That was a worthwhile use of dollars for Sara. I don't know if you gave any money to Jamie Arison or that might have been a waste.

[Jessica Tarlov]

No. I have a friend who is a doctor and loves politics, but isn't in the day to day insanity. She'll send me like a New York Times article the day after and she'll be like, can you believe this? And I'm like, I need to talk to you about how fast the news cycle goes. But she'll regularly send me a link to various Democrats. And she goes, worth my money. I'm like, well, how much money? Like, if you want. If you want to be spreading $10 all over the place, go ahead for it. But Amy McGrath is going to be the senator that takes a Mitch McConnell's seat. Okay. Thank you so much for being here. That's it for this episode. Thank you for joining us, Tim and the Raging Moderates crew. Our producers are David Toledo and Chinene Onike. Our technical director is Drew Burrows. You can now find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday. That's right, its own feed. There you'll get exclusive interviews with smart voices and politics like our. Our latest guest, Congressman Pat Ryan. Follow us wherever you get your podcasts. Also, follow Tim in all of Bulwark World. Thank you for being with us. Well, just me. Scott's not here, but he loves you from afar.

[Tim Miller]

I loved it. Good to be here. We'll do Joan again soon. Peace.

[Jessica Tarlov]

Bye.